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Samba_SamPa

NFL: Week 17 picks

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Let's enter the playoffs having bashed the bookies :hope ..... Silly late now, just a little acca bet to get the thread started. Basically I think that Peyton, Tom and Matty Ice will leave their respective games at some point during the 2nd halves, with 2nd strings getting a run out with an altogether less 'risky' playbook. More clock management and fewer scoring chances meaning that the first halves will be the ones that see most points in each of the games. KC @ DEN, MIA @ NE & TB @ ATL all to have highest scoring half as '1st half' - 2pts @ 6.68 Skybet

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Re: NFL: Week 17 picks Bears @ Lions Bears -3 @ 2 - 2 units The Bears need to win here and hope the Packers beat the Vikings to seal a Wildcard spot. Jay Cutler knows how big this is and I'm confident that the Bears will do whatever's necessary to take this. Quote from Jay: "This is a big game. Last week was a big game. We've got to win. There is nothing else to be said about it... these are the games you've got to have." The Bears fate is out of their hands, but I fancy them to take charge of the one thing they can control and win this comfortably against a Lions team that has been in a real slump and only averaged 16 points in their last 3. Cowboys @ Redskins Redskins -3 @ 1.9 - 1 unit Big game for both teams, but I think RG3 will do the business here. The Redskins have the most potent rushing offense in the NFL right now (and a 5th ranked rush defense), and combined with RG3's ability to make big play passes and even pick up significant rushing yards himself, I'd expect a similar game to their 38-31 win over the Cowboys last month. Also looking at the Texans to take out the Colts and under 39.5 in the 49ers game but haven't pulled the trigger yet.

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Re: NFL: Week 17 picks Atlanta - Tampa Bay under 43.5 @ 2.07 sportsbet Atlanta - Tampa Bay under 37.5 @ 3.18 sportsbet Atlanta have locked up home field advantage throughout the playoffs so expect them to either rst some of their starters from the beginning, or some time during the game. Their secondary has allowed just tow2 passing TDs in their last 6 games, and with Tampa Bay's QB Freeman turning over the ball, wih 8 INTs in his last 2 games, then hard to see TB scoring much. Also their running game has slowed down, with just once running for more than 80 yards in their last 5 games, while Atlanta has allowed 100 rushing yards or less in 4 of their last 5 games. As for Atlanta, expect them to run the ball to improve this area for the playoffs but they have ran for less than 100 yards in 5 of their last 7 games, while TB has allowed only 4 teams to rush for more than 100 yards in its 15 games. Like the look of a low scoring game here. Buffalo Bills v New York Jets under 37.5 @ 2.12 sportsbet Buffalo Bills v New York Jets under 31.5 @ 3.48 sportsbet Buffalo have struggled to pass the ball all season and have had success running the ball and should do well here on this Jets rush defence that has allowed 114+ yards in 5 of their last 7 games. The Jets too have had their problems passing the ball and like them to focus on the run as they have had at least 119 rushing yards in 4 of their last 5 games while Buffalo has allowed 270 and 182 rushing yards in its last 2 games. Like the look of a low scoring game here Cincinnati -3.5 @ 2.02 sportsbet Cincinnati -9.5 @ 3.58 sportsbet Bengals defence has been outstanding in the last few weeks, as both teams have locked in a playoff spot. Cincinnati have been very good at running the ball and defending the run, and expect them to have the edge in the run game, while both teams have had their problems passing the ball, and especially against two good pass defences, then doubt that they get much going here. Expect Baltimore to rest more of their own players as they have had their share of injuries this year. Detroit Lions v Chicago Bears over 46.5 @ 1.96 sportsbet Detroit Lions v Chicago Bears over 52.5 @ 3.02 sportsbet While Detroit has little to play for as they are out of the playoffs, they will be looking to get WR Johnson to 2000 yards for the season, and like them to do so on a Chicago secondary that has been hit by the better QBs like Green Bay, Seattle and San Francisco have. Also, Detroit have been running the ball much better of late and this Chicago rush defence has its share of injuries. Chicago will continue the run the ball and had success doing so when they played Detroit earlier in the season, running for 171 yards. Detroit have given up 205 rushing yards to Houston, 189 yards to Minnesota, 133 yards to Seattle and 148 yards to San Francisco, which are all run-first teams. Detroit'ssecondary has alos given up at least 2 TDs in 9 of their 15 games, and with a must win game for Chicago, then expect their QB Cutler to be much more accurate here Indy - Houston under 45.5 @ 1.96 sportsbet Indy - Houston under 39.5 @ 3.14 sportsbet Indy have locked in a playoff spot so they will be looking to rest some players. Their QB play has not been as smooth as it was earlier in the season, and Houston have a pretty good secondary to stop them, while their running game will find it difficult given that Houston have allowed only 6 out of 14 teams to rush for more than 100 yards. Houston's RB Foster has some conerns whetherhe will play, and doubt that he will be as prominent as he has been, while QB Schaub does enough to organise the side, but is not one who throws for huge yards. Without Foster to run the ball, their offence may struggle to get going. Doubt that this will be a high scoring game here New Orleans Saints v Carolina Panthers over 56.5 @ 2.16 sportsbet New Orleans Saints v Carolina Panthers over 62.5 @ 3.28 sportsbet New Orleans looking to get to .500 with a win here, and like Brees to do well, as he has thrown at least 3 TDs in 6 of his 7 home games this season. Carolina allowed him to throw for 325 yardsm with 1 TD and 2 INTs, and expect Brees to look to redeem himself here. NO's running game has improved with 100+ yards in 6 of their last 7 games, and like them to stretch this Carolina defnece so Brees has room to work with. Carolina have won 4 of their last 5 games, with QB Newton throwing for at least 2 TDs in 4 of these 5 games, and given that NO have allowed at least 2 passing TDs in 9 of their 15 games, then like him to do so here too. Also they have 100+ rushing yards in 10 of their 15 games while NO have allowed 100+ rushing yards in 11 of their 15 games. With both sides having a balanced offence, then expect them to contribute to a high scoring game New York Giants v Philadelphia Eagles under 45.5 @ 1.95 sportsbet New York Giants v Philadelphia Eagles under 39.5 @ 3.02 sportsbet NY Giants have to win this game to maybe clinch a playoff spot while for Philly, it has been a regrettable season for them. Neither side has been good this year throwing the ball, and with both secondary's doing quite well, then expect both sides to focus on running the ball. Neither side stops the run well, as NY have allowed 100+ yards in 9 of their 15 games while Philly have allowed 100+ yards in 12 of their 15 games. Two average sides go for it here, as their is that rivalry there, and expect the defences to lift here to keep it to a low scoring game Green Bay -6.5 @ 2.44 sportsbet Green Bay -13.5 @ 4.15 centrebet Green Bay need to win to lock up a first round bye and then a home playoff game while Minnesota need a win to get into the playoff. The Vikings rely on Peterson to get them mving forward as their QB play has been poor while GB's defence is getting healthier. Also, GB have QB Rodgers to rely on, and with his WRs also getting healthier, while their running game has improved, them expect them to have too much for Minnesota. Rodgers loves playing in the dome, which should help his chances of having another very good game Washington -3.5 @ 2.00 sportsbet Washington -9.5 @ 3.40 sportsbet Both teams need to win to get into the playoffs but the Redskins have been the more impressive of the two sides, as their running game should shred this Dallas rush defence. They have also thrown for at least 2 passing TDs in 5 of their last 6 games, and Dallas has given up at least 2 passing TDs in 6 of their last 7 games. With Washington having a good defence in stopping the run, then it will be up to Dallas QB Romo to get them going, but he can be inconsistent. Like Washington to win here, as their defence steps up while Dallas cannot stop RG3 Record: 41-87 (-2.20)

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Re: NFL: Week 17 picks 4pts Detroit vs Chicago - Over 44.5 points 10/11 William Hill If the Bears can slow Calvin Johnson down then there is definitely enough for them in this match to pick up the win. If they don’t stop Calvin Johnson then this one might turn into a bit of a shoot out and I think the 44.5 point line is pretty low. The Detroit defence has shipped points a few times this season so I think we can see at least 45pts here. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/chicago--detroit-betting-the-bears-might-need-to-come-through-a-shootout-to-push-for-playoff-place 4pts Minnesota vs Green Bay - Over 45.5 points 10/11 Ladbrokes It is hard to see this not being a high scoring game. I expect Adrian Peterson to run all over the Green Bay defence but then with the number two seed up for grabs I expect Aaron Rodgers to be at his best and pick holes in this Vikings defence so I would expect to see quite a few touchdowns in a bit of a ding dong game. 45.5pts looks a low line on the face of things and I think it will be covered. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/green-bay--minnesota-betting-expect-to-see-plenty-of-points-with-playoff-places-on-the-line 4pts T.Romo Over 310.5 Passing Yards 10/11 BetVictor This one could go either way but one thing is for sure it will be keenly contested because historically these two don’t like each other. I’m not picking who will win but I will take Tony Romo’s passing yards. The line is at 310.5 yards which I think is too low. Romo threw for 441 yards on Thanksgiving day against the Redskins and has thrown for over 340 yards for the last two weeks. With Dallas not really having much of a run game and the Redskins hard to run on anyway Romo will need to do a lot of passing and I think he can throw for more than 310 yards. http://www.punterslounge.com/dallas--washington-betting-tony-romo-will-be-key-to-the-dallas-chances-in-washington

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Re: NFL: Week 17 picks Panthers (+5) @ Saints = 1.91 Skybet Panthers look a good pick here, especially with the 5 points advantage Skybet are offering. Although New Orleans have the 2nd best Passing record in the league, Carolina have got the 8th best def record against the throw, whereas Carolina are average in Passing yards, the Saints have the 2nd worst Defense record. On the rushing, NOS have the 4th worst Defense record, against Panthers 10th best running game. And Panther's Defense record is much better than NOS's running game. Both teams on winning streaks, but Home/Away records (4-3 and 3-4) could mean this will be a tight game. :hope

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Re: NFL: Week 17 picks Some of the book have not listed PROPS yet . I absolutely love this 3 bets and i wanna jump on them early ! 13:00 EST Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions - All Markets 1)(CHI @ DET) Total Passing Yards - Matthew Stafford (DET) Over 279½ (1.80) 10 units bodog bodog is crazy willhill has him 300.5 bet365 295.5 favoring over 1.76 2)Cutler vs Stafford - most passing yards 1831 Jay Cutler +65½ passing yards -150 1832 Matthew Stafford -65½ passing yards +120 Matthew Stafford -65½ passing yards +120 (2.20) the greek 10 units CHICAGO OFFENSE Passing Yards 183.60 DETROIT OFFENSE Passing Yards 311.47 128 yards difference If Chicago is winning the game they will try to run the ball to keep Stafford off the field. Detroit on the other hand is one dimensional team winning or losing they still will throw the ball . Do not doubt Stafford !!! willhill #'s Jay Cutler Total Passing Yards 1.91 Under (225.5) Matthew Stafford Total Passing Yards 1.91 Under (300.5) 85 yards difference bet365 Jay Cutler Total Passing Yards 225.5 Matthew Stafford Total Passing Yards 295.5 favoring over 80 yards difference bodog Jay Cutler Total Passing Yards 210.5 Matthew Stafford Passing Yards 279½ 69 yards difference 16:25 Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings 3) How many rushing yards will Adrian Peterson (Min) record? Over 118,5 @1.72 bwin 10 units willhill has him @ 125 bet365 @122.5 at the odds 1.71 for the over Dec 23 @ Houston - 86 yards Dec 16 @ St.Louis - 212 yards Dec 9 vs Chicago - 154 yards Dec 2 @ GB - 210 yards Nov 25 @ Chicago - 108 yards Nov 11 vs Detroit - 171 yards Nov 4 @ Seattle - 182 yards Oct 25 vs Tampa Bay - 123 yards Oct 21 vs Arizona - 153 yards last 9 games he is averaging 155 yards per game, he racked up 210 yards on the ground vs GB back on Dec 2nd. and that was in GB. he goes over 118.5 with ease today. i would not be surprised to see him close to a 100 yards by the halftime . From ESPN Peterson enters the regular-season finale with 1,898 yards, needing 208 yards to break Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing record of 2,105 yards, set in 1984. Peterson rushed for 210 yards on 21 carries in the Vikings' first game against the Packers, on Dec. 2 at Lambeau Field. Peterson is among three players to rush for at least 208 yards against the Packers, who have played 1,255 all-time regular-season games, according to ESPN Stats & Information. Peterson's 113.0 career rushing yards per game against the Packers are the most ever by anyone who has played them at least five times, according to ESPN Stats & Information. GL. More picks (if any) around 14:00 est NFL 2012/13 37 win - 19 lost +118.13 units NFL 2012/13 teasers 1W -0L +7.6 units NCAAF 2012/13 0W-1L -10 units

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Re: NFL: Week 17 picks NFL 2012-2013 Overall 42W-40L-3P -2.80 units (51.21%) Ravens +3 (-105) to win 1 unit @ 5dimes Giants -6.5 (-113) to win 1 unit @ 5dimes Redskins -3 (-125) to win 1 unit @ 5dimes Greenbay -3 to win 1 unit @ 5dimes Chiefs +17 to win 1 unit @ 5dimes Cardinals +16.5 to win 1 unit @ 5dimes

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Re: NFL: Week 17 picks Houston -6.5 The Colts don't really have anything to play for having made the playoffs while the Texans need home field and to right the ship before the post season. The Texans have struggled to run the ball as of late but NE and Minnesota both have strong run defenses. They gashed the Colts for 178 yds a couple of weeks ago. Houston's offense need the run game to set up play action bootlegs something that their offense has been lacking in 2 of their last 3. The Colts may also rest several starters by half time as well.

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Re: NFL: Week 17 picks Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos Chiefs +17 @ 1.9 - 1 unit This is a big line for a game that has been historically pretty tight and underish. Obviously data from when Peyton wasn't there isn't much to go by but their last meeting was a 17-9 to Denver at Kansas, and Peyton was playing then. The Chiefs had a strong performance against the Colts last game, reaching over 500 offensive yards and holding the Colts to less than 300 yards, and the game was tied until a late Colts touchdown in the final minutes to win 17-10. Just to throw the historical odds out there, going back to 2010 the Chiefs have won 2 of 4 in this contest, and neither loss was into double digits. Overall I expect a Broncos win but can see the Chiefs making a fight of it. I don't think the Broncos will be going balls out for a riskless game where a win is just a bonus, and they certainly won't want to pick up any injuries going into the playoffs, so if they pick up a lead they could be inclined to rest players (ie Manning)

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Re: NFL: Week 17 picks Dallas -2.5 @2.80 with bet365 This matchup is for the NFC East and I think the value is on the Cowboys. This core group of Cowboys Romo, Witten, Austin, Ware have all played in post season games together and they have the experience in these spots. The Cowboys also play much smarter football on the road than at home. At home they try top make big plays rather than taking what the defense gives them and this has led to countless turn overs from Romo. Washington's defense has improved as of late but they don't have the pass rush to slow down the Cowboys and we saw this on Thanksgiving where Romo was sacked only twice in 62 dropbacks. The Skins also boast by far the worst pair of safeties in the NFL in Madieu Williams and Reed Doughty. That will be a problem against Dez, Austin and Witten who are all excellent at attacking safeties down the middle or over the top. The Cowboy defense should have a better handle on RGIII who torched them on Thanksgiving. However the Skins made several big plays that you can't count on every week, some blown coverages, some missed tackles and a terrible INT by Romo 20 secs before half time leading to a TD that made it 28-3 at half. While the Skins have a resurgence happening they've played only one team in this stretch that can attack their porous pass defense and that was Dallas where Romo put up 441 yds on them.

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Re: NFL: Week 17 picks I got a double on before being sent out to get the boss a Chinese :eyes - wasn't going to post with Tenn being 7 up, but now it;s 7-7 I will: Titans (m/l) x Bengals (m/l) 5pt double @ 2.34 Bet365 Jaguars aren't going to want to win ahead of the Chiefs playing later, I very much doubt, whilst the Bengals should take care of a Rice-less (if Rice plays I am going to hunt Schef down ;) ) Ravens who are still nursing injuries and will not be taking any personnel risks tonight.

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Re: NFL: Week 17 picks

Atlanta - Tampa Bay under 43.5 @ 2.07 :) Atlanta - Tampa Bay under 37.5 @ 3.18 :( Buffalo Bills v New York Jets under 37.5 @ 2.12 :) Buffalo Bills v New York Jets under 31.5 @ 3.48 :( Cincinnati -3.5 @ 2.02 :) Cincinnati -9.5 @ 3.58 :( Detroit Lions v Chicago Bears over 46.5 @ 1.96 :) Detroit Lions v Chicago Bears over 52.5 @ 3.02 :) Indy - Houston under 45.5 @ 1.96 :) Indy - Houston under 39.5 @ 3.14 :( New Orleans Saints v Carolina Panthers over 56.5 @ 2.16 :) New Orleans Saints v Carolina Panthers over 62.5 @ 3.28 :) New York Giants v Philadelphia Eagles under 45.5 @ 1.95 :( New York Giants v Philadelphia Eagles under 39.5 @ 3.02 :(
Green Bay -6.5 @ 2.44 Green Bay -13.5 @ 4.15 Washington -3.5 @ 2.00 Washington -9.5 @ 3.40 Adding: New England - Miami under 45.5 @ 2.13 sportsbet New England - Miami under 39.5 @ 3.52 sportsbet Denver - Kansas under 40.5 @ 1.95 sportsbet Denver - Kansas under 34.5 @ 3.04 sportsbet San Diego -9.5 @ 2.08 sportsbet San Diego -16.5 @ 2.97 sportsbet San Francisco - Arizona under 38 @ 1.90 sportsbet San Francisco - Arizona under 31.5 @ 3.00 sportsbet Seattle - St Louis under 41.5 @ 1.94 sportsbet Seattle - St Louis under 35.5 @ 2.95 sportsbet Record: 49-93 (+3.39)

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Re: NFL: Week 17 picks

Green Bay -6.5 @ 2.44 :( Green Bay -13.5 @ 4.15 :( New England - Miami under 45.5 @ 2.13 :) New England - Miami under 39.5 @ 3.52 :) Denver - Kansas under 40.5 @ 1.95 :( Denver - Kansas under 34.5 @ 3.04 :( San Diego -9.5 @ 2.08 :( San Diego -16.5 @ 2.97 :( San Francisco - Arizona under 38 @ 1.90 :( San Francisco - Arizona under 31.5 @ 3.00 :( Seattle - St Louis under 41.5 @ 1.94 :) Seattle - St Louis under 35.5 @ 2.95 :)
Washington -3.5 @ 2.00 Washington -9.5 @ 3.40 Record: 53-101 (+1.93)

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Re: NFL: Week 17 picks

1)(CHI @ DET) Total Passing Yards - Matthew Stafford (DET) Over 279½ (1.80) 10 units bodog:wall 2)Cutler vs Stafford - most passing yards Matthew Stafford -65½ passing yards +120 (2.20) the greek 10 units :wall 3) How many rushing yards will Adrian Peterson (Min) record? Over 118,5 @1.72 bwin 10 :nana
1W - 2L -12.8 units NFL 2012/13 38 win - 21 lost +105.33 units NFL 2012/13 teasers 1W -0L +7.6 units NCAAF 2012/13 0W-1L -10 units

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