FA Cup > 29th Dec - 7th Jan

[MPLouis]

Re: FA Cup > 29th Dec - 7th Jan

Is 1.17 value? Well this is a matter of opinion; in my opinion there is rarely value to be had in opposing such short priced favourites as I am a believer in the favourite-longshot pricing bias.

I'm not familiar with that expression - can you explain what this is please?

[Alexc]

Re: FA Cup > 29th Dec - 7th Jan

I'm not the biggest fan of cup competitions and when it comes to picking potential upsets and backing against premier league sides especially when they are at home. Despite them to likely field a weaker starting 11 they still have high quality players and are more than capable of beating a full strength league side. The coupon I do like in these fixtures however is Both Teams To Score. I think a lot of these ties are capable of producing a lot of goals. Yet to pick out my games but will post nearer the time with my thoughts. A team I do fancy at first glance however is Norwich, away to Peterborough. I feel Peterborough have too much concern with the league and avoiding relegation to completely focus on this competition. They have been pretty poor this season and despite 4 wins in the last 5 I just can't see this game being massively important to them and more of a case of enjoying the tie against a premier league side. I fancy Ferguson to have more of an interest in bringing in a couple of players to strengthen their bid to avoid relegation in the league than downing a premier league side in Norwich. Still to have a look at team news but I also doubt to see a full strength Peterborough side playing here with maybe a couple of regulars getting a rest for the next league game. Norwich might have lost their last 4 league games but have a strong enough side and are more than capable of scoring goals. A manager in Chris Hughton who I highly rate and I can see a cup run being in his interests. A comfortable victory here for Norwich.

Speaking as Norwich fan, I'd be wary. I think Holt and Morison will both miss out, and that is a blow. Morison is a good player, but no substitute for ''The Horse.'' Simeon Jackson is a very good striker but in the West Ham match Chris Hughton indicated his preference for a striker with similar attributes to Holt and Morison, Harry Kane, should Spurs allow him to play, and I think it's asking a bit for a young kid to lead the line. Declan Rudd I think will start in goal, and although he is talented, again, that's another youngster. Hughton did OK in the league cup but I don't think the players were overly motivated in the quarter final against Villa, although at the time we were flying in the league so maybe their mindset has changed. Posh are up and down. One week they can win at Cardiff, the next they could lose at home to a lower side. One think about Peterborough is they have goals in their team, with players like Boyd, Tomlin and Gayle, and maybe that could be the difference. One thing you'd have to think is their should be goals in this game.

[pg_yid]

Re: FA Cup > 29th Dec - 7th Jan

I'm not familiar with that expression - can you explain what this is please?

Sent you PM.

[FcGers10]

Re: FA Cup > 29th Dec - 7th Jan

Speaking as Norwich fan, I'd be wary. I think Holt and Morison will both miss out, and that is a blow. Morison is a good player, but no substitute for ''The Horse.'' Simeon Jackson is a very good striker but in the West Ham match Chris Hughton indicated his preference for a striker with similar attributes to Holt and Morison, Harry Kane, should Spurs allow him to play, and I think it's asking a bit for a young kid to lead the line. Declan Rudd I think will start in goal, and although he is talented, again, that's another youngster. Hughton did OK in the league cup but I don't think the players were overly motivated in the quarter final against Villa, although at the time we were flying in the league so maybe their mindset has changed. Posh are up and down. One week they can win at Cardiff, the next they could lose at home to a lower side. One think about Peterborough is they have goals in their team, with players like Boyd, Tomlin and Gayle, and maybe that could be the difference. One thing you'd have to think is their should be goals in this game.

Thanks mate. Had since found out after posting that, that Holt and Morrison were missing this weekend. I agree with you they are a big loss, especially Holt. Also agree with you that there could be goals in this game and still fancy Norwich to nick this one, maybe a 2-1, but I'll look into it more.

[Fedar]

Re: FA Cup > 29th Dec - 7th Jan

You're right in that one needs to look at the individual match odds; I did this though before my bet. I wouldn't read too much into the City-Villa game. For a start I'd say there was a big difference between an inexperienced yet talented Villa side, and a team hovering around the edges of the Championship playoffs. Secondly there is a difference between the league cup where such 'freak' results occur more often than in the FA Cup. If City lost this game there would be a massive outcry, whilst the league cup result was largely ignored. Also a draw would be a huge annoyance for City considering the fixture congestion it would cause. Is 1.17 value? Well this is a matter of opinion; in my opinion there is rarely value to be had in opposing such short priced favourites as I am a believer in the favourite-longshot pricing bias. Man City were 1.17 at home to Reading in the league recently and whilst I don't know much about Watford, I'd guess they weren't as good a side as Reading. Watford will relish the chance to play the champions, but according to Zola they will play their usual attacking game. Whilst such things should perhaps be taken with a pinch of salt, I think if they do this they will be taken apart on the counter attack. Having said all that, the training ground spat between Mancini and Balotelli does worry me (it happened after I placed this bet). I've always thought that Man City's biggest enemies have been themselves and the disharmony within the squad.

I am still a little uncomfortable with such City bet, because when I consider the proposed treble (City-Boro-Spurs), if I have to pick the hardest among the three, I would choose City, while at the same time their odds are lower than Spurs' and close to Boro's odds. Let's compare this tie with Spurs - Coventry: Spurs at the moment are on nearly the same level as City, it can even be justifiably argued that they are in a better shape at the moment, and at the same time Coventry definitely is a poorer team than Watford. Then, why are Spurs priced higher than City?! My answer would be "bias", either big money bias, or big names bias. Also, despite that Boro are a Championship side, I feel that the gap between them and Hastings is much wider than the one between City and Watford. After all, Boro could easily be a Premiership material, while Hastings are amateurs.

[Darran]

Re: FA Cup > 29th Dec - 7th Jan Just to correct you slightly Hastings are semi-pro not amateurs.

[MPLouis]

Re: FA Cup > 29th Dec - 7th Jan

Spurs at the moment are on nearly the same level as City' date=' it can even be justifiably argued that they are in a better shape at the moment, and at the same time Coventry definitely is a poorer team than Watford. Then, why are Spurs priced higher than City?[/quote'] Got to agree with you there - I'd say Spurs are a much better bet to beat Coventry than City to beat Watford. Best odds on oddschecker at the moment are 1.2 Spurs and 1.17 City.

[Alexc]

Re: FA Cup > 29th Dec - 7th Jan Just a thought, but maybe the bookies believe there will be rotation in the Spurs and City matches, in which case it becomes a question of who has the better second side, which surely is City?

[wisey10]

Re: FA Cup > 29th Dec - 7th Jan

A few initial thoughts: Peterborough +0.25 v Norwich Posh have picked up a bit of form lately and they are managing to score goals. They are the sort of side who can hit a bad run losing a number of games on the bounce and then go and pull out a real performance. Norwich are doing excellent this season but they haven't got the biggest of squads. If Hughton rests a few I think there could be a bit of value on the Posh. Aston Villa -0.5 v Ipswich The price looks too big on Villa here to me. Yes they are in a relegation fight and survival is their priority. But the last thing Lambert needs right now is getting knocked out of the cup at home against a championship club. Villa have got plenty of good youngsters with a bit of quality about them. Let's not forget Ipswich's priority is survival too and im not sure Mcarthy is the sort of manager to take the cup seriously given the position is side are in. A 10/11 shot on a prem side at home against a championship side looks decent unless there are mitigating circumstances. I think Lambert will be desperate to win this one and restore a bit of confidence in his side. Sheff Wednesday v MKDons +0.25 Its the classic bottom of 1 league v top of the league below match. It should be a tight game with there not being too much between the sides. The MkDons will come into the match with confidence wanting a scalp and I think I would prefer to side with them on a positive handicap. Bolton +0 v Sunderland im not keen on Sunderland in this match at all. O'neil did have success in the cup in his early years but I'm not convinced about his current motivations for it. They certainly aren't out of the mire in the league yet and he's got a small squad. Bolton are massively under performing given the players they have and I actually think they have a very good squad. They haven't being playing well but they have plenty of players with prem experience and I think they are capable of putting in a performance in this match. Especially if o'neil does rest a few.

With regards to Villa I hadn't realised they had the league cup semi final next Tuesday. That alters things slightly as Lambert will surely prioritise that. You would have to wait for team news on this match now before establishing if theirs any value on either side. Ipswich could be the bet if Villa really change things.

[Jase82]

Derby County V Tranmere Rovers Both to score = YES @ 1.95 - Coral. The bookies rarely fancy Tranmere. Even after seeing them reach the top of League One I think they are still seen as a mid table League One side, and I just think they have more chance here than the bookies are giving them credit for. Derby very rarely keep a clean sheet here in the league, and have conceded in each of their last five home league fixtures. Even in the Carling Cup they drew 5-5 with League One Scunthorpe. Fulham V Blackpool Over 2.5 goals @ 1.76 - Marathon. I think Fulham are painfully too short here given their current problems. I wouldn't trust them at odds on to get the job done. They haven't kept a clean sheet at home since Villa, conceding at least a goal in each if their last five. Blackpool are as open as they ever are away from home, conceding in each of their last five away fixtures. Fulham were already knocked out of the Carling Cup at home, 2-1, by Charlton and I see this being similar. Hull City V Leyton Orient @ 8.8 - Marathon. Hull City V Leyton Orient + 1.25 @ 1.85 - bet365. Fancy Orient to get something here as indicated above. They're rarely fancied by the bookies as they're seen as a small Club, but they have improved this season dramatically and quite importantly they've found their form in front of goal, with nine goals scored in their last five away fixtures. Hull probably have bigger things to think about here and with Steve Bruce set to change things about in an attempt to keep the squad fresh for the coming Championship promotion bid, I think this is the perfect opportunity for Orient to claim a higher division scalp here. Hull have already had to go through a penalty shoot out win against Rotherham, and then suffer a 3-2 loss to Doncaster in the Carling Cup. Orient knocked out Charlton on PENs in the Carling Cup. I actually remember tipping Orient last year to cause a shock when they knocked out Norwich. They then went on to beat Swansea, before losing to Arsenal after a replay. Leicester City V Burton Albion @ 14 - Marathon. Leicester City V Burton Albion + 1.5 @ 2.05 - bet365. Burton have already knocked Leicester out of the Carling cup earlier in the season. I just think Leicester are another Championship side that probably have bigger designs, don't necessarily need the money and probably will look to make some changes to their squad. Huge odds on another un-fancied lower league side. Leicester just look like a coupon buster to me. Macclesfield @ 5.75 - Skybet V Cardiff. Macclesfield + 0.5 @ 2.2 - bet365 V Cardiff. The third Championship side I think probably have wider ambitions, and don't really need the money a good cup win will give them. I'd expect Cardiff to make a lot of changes here, and they've already been knocked out by Northampton in the Carling Cup earlier in the season.

[Darran]

Re: FA Cup > 29th Dec - 7th Jan Middlesbrough v Hastings Ever since Hastings beat Harrogate on penalties to secure a 3rd Round FA Cup tie at Middlesbrough, I have been looking forward to what I expected to be a fantastic punting opportunity. The gulf between the two sides is huge and I think the bookies have underestimated just how big it is because of the romanticism of the FA Cup. If this game was at Hastings I might have been slightly more wary, but the facts are Hastings are a very average side in the Ryman Premier, a massive five divisions below the Championship. They have failed to win any of their last eight league games and have drawn the last seven. They also had a fairly kind passage to this stage as they are yet to play anyone above the Blue Square North. I suspect that any Middlesbrough player will be paid more than the whole Hastings side get in a week and of course they are semi-pro. Because it is the FA Cup people want the underdogs to do well, but the harsh reality is Hastings will be severely outclassed. No doubt Middlesbrough will rest a few players, but whoever they put out should be capable of putting at least three goals past Hastings. Worth remembering that MK Dons hammered Cambridge City, who play in the equivalent league to Hastings and are much better, 6-1 at home. Yes the first game was 0-0, but MK Dons should have won by a hatful that night. Although I don’t bet at such short odds as 1/8 I think it is probably one of the best value odds on bets I have seen. The play for me though is the home side on the -2 handicap which is amazingly odds against at 11/10 with Ladbrokes. That really does look a gift as it will be astonishing if Middlesbrough don’t win by at least three clear goals and too be honest I see them scoring four or five quite easily. Bets like this don’t come around often. Luton v Wolves I think the bookies have also priced this game up wrongly and although I certainly expect Luton to hold their own, it wouldn’t surprise me to see them score, I just have to back Wolves at BetVictor’s 23/20. Wolves have been drifting all week because they aren’t in great form and their manager certainly didn’t hold back after their loss on New Year’s Day. The thing is Luton’s defence has looked very suspect of late and with Ainge cup-tied that weakens them even more. A Championship side should get plenty of chances and it seems to me that there has been an over-reaction to Wolves’ form and people have forgotten they are actually playing a Blue Square Premier side. There is no doubt Wolves should be odds on for this and although Luton have the strike-force to cause some problems, 23/20 is too big. The 10/11 (Paddy Power, Boylesports and William Hill) on over 2.5 goals looks too big as well as for Luton to win I think they will have to score two as I can’t see Wolves not scoring at least one and too be honest I can see them getting two or three.

[Teodore]

Re: FA Cup > 29th Dec - 7th Jan What about Derby C. and Leeds? I heard that both rivals have some important missings?

[MPLouis]

Re: FA Cup > 29th Dec - 7th Jan Man City v Watford Man City's FA Cup record under Mancini against lower league sides Middlesbrough 0 City 1 Scunthorpe 2 City 4 Leicester 2 City 2 City 4 Leicester 2 (replay) Notts County 1 City 1 City 5 Notts County 0 (replay) 2 of the 6 games have been at home, and 4 away. In general, City have just done enough away and won comfortably at home. But the only really convincing scoreline is the 5-0 against Notts County. This, taken with Watford's strong from (they've won 3 and drawn 2 of their last 5 away games), makes me think Watford are some value on the handicap - Watford +2 AH 2.17 188Bet Strength: 5/10 (confidence I have in the value of the bet)

[hoddspur]

One of the bets that have caught my eye so far in this round is: Sunderland to beat Bolton 2.76 @ Betfair - I'm surprised Sunderland are not bigger favourites in this one. On Betfair Bolton are currently 2.8 and Sunderland are 2.76 with the Draw at 3.55 I think Martin O'Neill will put out a strong side here and take the competition very seriously. Bolton have not been in great form of late and lie in 16th position in the Championship with 3 defeats in their last 4 games. Sunderland have lost two on the bounce but had 2 wins before that against Southampton and Man City. Whilst they only have 2 away wins this season, I still fancy them to win here if they play a strong side like I think they will and at 7/4 I will take them. Sunderland have a good recent record against Bolton with 6 wins and 2 draws from the last 8 games and have won on their last 3 visits to Bolton. Correct Score: Bolton 1-3 Sunderland 24/1 @ Betfair - Small stakes on the correct score in this game. Basically, I fancy Bolton to score 1 as Sunderland generally are not a great defensive side and don't keep a lot of clean sheets and Kevin Davies for Bolton is always a handful. Sunderland have some good attacking players with Johnson, Sessegnon and Fletcher. If Sunderland put out a full strength side then I think they will have too much quality in attack for Bolton tomorrow and I think 24/1 for Sunderland to win 3-1 looks a tad big so will put small stakes on it. I will study the games a bit more later and will add more later on. Good Luck all Sent from my iPhone using PL Forum app

[Fedar]

Re: FA Cup > 29th Dec - 7th Jan

Just a thought' date=' but maybe the bookies believe there will be rotation in the Spurs and City matches, in which case it becomes a question of who has the better second side, which surely is City?[/quote'] This is a good assumption. Although, to be honest, I have no reasons to expect big changes in both sides. First, in contrast to common belief, Premiership top teams usually put nearly full-strength squads in FA Cup. The only exception being when they have Champions League ties, but in such cases they rest players even in their Premier League games. Second, FA Cup is not only a more prestigious competition, but it offers another huge advantage - the games are on weekends, hence they don't over-burden the schedule in the way mid-week football does. I think that both Tottenham and City have enough reasons to take this tournament very seriously. Still, I don't believe much in City's price. Watford might easily turn out to be a Premiership side next season and I am sure that then the bookies will not give City 1.15. And City needed a last-minute goal against Reading - a team that might be argued that at the moment are at the level of a mid-table Championship side. Also, City will miss Aguero (injury), Toure brothers (already called for CAF) and probably Balotelli (after the accident).

[RedDevil92]

Re: FA Cup > 29th Dec - 7th Jan WBA will be without 4 players (Popov, Olsson, Reid and Yacob) while 5 other unnamed players are doubts. So no bet on West Brom for me.

[Fedar]

Re: FA Cup > 29th Dec - 7th Jan Nobody has discussed yet Liverpool and Everton's fixtures. Looked quite easy at first sight, given the level of the opponents, especially Mandsfield Town against Liverpool. Also Everton dominating almost every away game in the Premiership looks at first sight like having an easy side against a League 2 team. However, my major concern here is with the quality of the pitch. I just recall last year's game between Stevenage and Tottenham, when Spurs played with nearly their best teams (I remember both Defoe and Bale playing), and despite that, they were terrible and finished "0:0" without being able to create any decent chance. The thing with this game was that the pitch at Stevenage was terrible - small, narrow and too heavy, therefore the huge advantage of Spurs in terms of skills was completely diminished. I had the feeling that even Barca would have problems at such playing grounds. So, anybody with more info about the pitch quality in Mansfield and Cheltenham?!

[MPLouis]

Re: FA Cup > 29th Dec - 7th Jan

Middlesbrough v Hastings Ever since Hastings beat Harrogate on penalties to secure a 3rd Round FA Cup tie at Middlesbrough, I have been looking forward to what I expected to be a fantastic punting opportunity. The gulf between the two sides is huge and I think the bookies have underestimated just how big it is because of the romanticism of the FA Cup. If this game was at Hastings I might have been slightly more wary, but the facts are Hastings are a very average side in the Ryman Premier, a massive five divisions below the Championship. They have failed to win any of their last eight league games and have drawn the last seven. They also had a fairly kind passage to this stage as they are yet to play anyone above the Blue Square North. I suspect that any Middlesbrough player will be paid more than the whole Hastings side get in a week and of course they are semi-pro. Because it is the FA Cup people want the underdogs to do well, but the harsh reality is Hastings will be severely outclassed. No doubt Middlesbrough will rest a few players, but whoever they put out should be capable of putting at least three goals past Hastings. Worth remembering that MK Dons hammered Cambridge City, who play in the equivalent league to Hastings and are much better, 6-1 at home. Yes the first game was 0-0, but MK Dons should have won by a hatful that night. Although I don’t bet at such short odds as 1/8 I think it is probably one of the best value odds on bets I have seen. The play for me though is the home side on the -2 handicap which is amazingly odds against at 11/10 with Ladbrokes. That really does look a gift as it will be astonishing if Middlesbrough don’t win by at least three clear goals and too be honest I see them scoring four or five quite easily. Bets like this don’t come around often.

It does sound convincing. An alternative lower risk handicap bet: Boro -2.25 Asian Handicap 1.78 BetVictor In this bet, half the stake is on Boro -2AH, and half on Boro -2.5AH, so if Boro win by 2 goals, you get half your stake back.

[HastGill1]

Re: FA Cup > 29th Dec - 7th Jan

Middlesbrough v Hastings Ever since Hastings beat Harrogate on penalties to secure a 3rd Round FA Cup tie at Middlesbrough, I have been looking forward to what I expected to be a fantastic punting opportunity. The gulf between the two sides is huge and I think the bookies have underestimated just how big it is because of the romanticism of the FA Cup. If this game was at Hastings I might have been slightly more wary, but the facts are Hastings are a very average side in the Ryman Premier, a massive five divisions below the Championship. They have failed to win any of their last eight league games and have drawn the last seven. They also had a fairly kind passage to this stage as they are yet to play anyone above the Blue Square North. I suspect that any Middlesbrough player will be paid more than the whole Hastings side get in a week and of course they are semi-pro. Because it is the FA Cup people want the underdogs to do well, but the harsh reality is Hastings will be severely outclassed. No doubt Middlesbrough will rest a few players, but whoever they put out should be capable of putting at least three goals past Hastings. Worth remembering that MK Dons hammered Cambridge City, who play in the equivalent league to Hastings and are much better, 6-1 at home. Yes the first game was 0-0, but MK Dons should have won by a hatful that night. Although I don’t bet at such short odds as 1/8 I think it is probably one of the best value odds on bets I have seen. The play for me though is the home side on the -2 handicap which is amazingly odds against at 11/10 with Ladbrokes. That really does look a gift as it will be astonishing if Middlesbrough don’t win by at least three clear goals and too be honest I see them scoring four or five quite easily. Bets like this don’t come around often.

I totally agree with you, but I do worry a bit about Boro's injury list! '...Tony Mowbray digs deep into the pool of available players, with Justin Hoyte, George Friend, Jonathan Woodgate, Seb Hines, Andre Bikey. Emmanuel Ledesma, Muzzy Carayol, Scott McDonald, Marvin Emnes, Julio Arca, Grant Leadbitter, Josh McEachran, Faris Haroun, Curtis Main and Ben Gibson all injured.' That's 15 of the first team squad injured! He has added a few kids to the squad that didn't even have squad numbers before today, it has to be put in context though, whatever team they put out will be far better than Hastings can handle I imagine..looking at the Middlesborough side the fans reckon the defence is likely to be pretty inexperienced simply because of the injuries but the midfield and attack will be pretty experienced and in a way it forces Mowbrays hand to put the most experienced out of what he has available. The Hastings gk's injury I wrote about previously is now in the local rag today and pretty much confirmed what I said, he is a major doubt and they are still trying to get another keeper in as they don't want an 18 year old with a handful of non-league games under his belt playing against a Championship side. It is different but I remember watching Hastings in a pre-season game this season against an Arsenal 'development squad' who beat them 9-0, and the difference in stamina, physical size and technical ability between full-time and part-time is stark. Anyone who follows me in European qualifiers etc will know I always go heavy against the part-timers because the difference is usually huge! I'm lumping on -1EH at 1.4 and -2EH which (as addpea says) is unbelievable value! The thought of Nicky Bailey playing against Hastings is terrifying..

[Feduloff]

Re: FA Cup > 29th Dec - 7th Jan

Birmingham without: Caddis(df 7/0),Delfouneso(df 0/0),Carr(df 0/0),Murphy(df 13/0),Diop(mf 2/1),Fahey(mf 7/0),Abrose(mf 5/0),Mullins(mf 22/1),Asante(att 0/0),Jervis(att 2/0),King(att 21/12 top scorer) and Zigic(att 16/5 ,2nd scorer). doubtful are: Packwood(df 5/0),Spector(df 21/0),Burke(mf 25/2),Lovenkards(att 14/2) and Reilly(att 5/0). 12 players for sure out + 5 other doubtful (i dont think that coach will force them) so practicly Birmingham without 17 players!!!!! coach call 10 teenagers in team..

http://www.betrush.com/pick,Leeds___Birmingham,45630.html

[Darran]

Re: FA Cup > 29th Dec - 7th Jan

Nobody has discussed yet Liverpool and Everton's fixtures. Looked quite easy at first sight, given the level of the opponents, especially Mandsfield Town against Liverpool. Also Everton dominating almost every away game in the Premiership looks at first sight like having an easy side against a League 2 team. However, my major concern here is with the quality of the pitch. I just recall last year's game between Stevenage and Tottenham, when Spurs played with nearly their best teams (I remember both Defoe and Bale playing), and despite that, they were terrible and finished "0:0" without being able to create any decent chance. The thing with this game was that the pitch at Stevenage was terrible - small, narrow and too heavy, therefore the huge advantage of Spurs in terms of skills was completely diminished. I had the feeling that even Barca would have problems at such playing grounds. So, anybody with more info about the pitch quality in Mansfield and Cheltenham?!

My team Gloucester City groundshare with Cheltenham and the pitch is always superb and a great pitch to play passing football on.

[Darran]

Re: FA Cup > 29th Dec - 7th Jan

I totally agree with you, but I do worry a bit about Boro's injury list! '...Tony Mowbray digs deep into the pool of available players, with Justin Hoyte, George Friend, Jonathan Woodgate, Seb Hines, Andre Bikey. Emmanuel Ledesma, Muzzy Carayol, Scott McDonald, Marvin Emnes, Julio Arca, Grant Leadbitter, Josh McEachran, Faris Haroun, Curtis Main and Ben Gibson all injured.' That's 15 of the first team squad injured! He has added a few kids to the squad that didn't even have squad numbers before today, it has to be put in context though, whatever team they put out will be far better than Hastings can handle I imagine..looking at the Middlesborough side the fans reckon the defence is likely to be pretty inexperienced simply because of the injuries but the midfield and attack will be pretty experienced and in a way it forces Mowbrays hand to put the most experienced out of what he has available. The Hastings gk's injury I wrote about previously is now in the local rag today and pretty much confirmed what I said, he is a major doubt and they are still trying to get another keeper in as they don't want an 18 year old with a handful of non-league games under his belt playing against a Championship side. It is different but I remember watching Hastings in a pre-season game this season against an Arsenal 'development squad' who beat them 9-0, and the difference in stamina, physical size and technical ability between full-time and part-time is stark. Anyone who follows me in European qualifiers etc will know I always go heavy against the part-timers because the difference is usually huge! I'm lumping on -1EH at 1.4 and -2EH which (as addpea says) is unbelievable value! The thought of Nicky Bailey playing against Hastings is terrifying..

That is some injury list although like you say in some ways that does force Mowbrays hand as he will obviously be keen to avoid anything close to an upset. A couple of years ago two step 6 sides made the 1st round (thats two leagues below Hastings) and one played Carlisle the other Hereford both away. Bookies again over estimated the chances of the two step 6 sides and both were well beatenand hopefully the same sort of thing will happen tomorrow.

[Kiddo112]

Re: FA Cup > 29th Dec - 7th Jan

It does sound convincing. An alternative lower risk handicap bet: Boro -2.25 Asian Handicap 1.78 BetVictor In this bet, half the stake is on Boro -2AH, and half on Boro -2.5AH, so if Boro win by 2 goals, you get half your stake back.

Sportingbet are now going 2.20 on the -2EH. For the risk adverse, if you split stakes between that, and the 1.4 with Ladbrokes for -1EH, you get 1.63 for the -2AH. This is slightly better than the 1.57 available with Paddy Power. Every little helps!!

[HastGill1]

Re: FA Cup > 29th Dec - 7th Jan Should also point out that one of those 'kids' I mentioned who might be getting a game tomorrow is the England U17 captain! Mowbray will still have a very decent side at his disposal, regardless of injuries..

[RedDevil92]

Re: FA Cup > 29th Dec - 7th Jan Aldershot-Rotherham AH-0.25 @1.86 4/10 188bet Aldershot are fighting against relegation. They don't have a good squad and furthermore a very poor home record with only 2 victories in 12 matches while they lost 7 out of their home fixtures. For this match they will miss striker Dani Lopez (4 goals) who is cup.tied. Rotherham do have the best squad in the division as manager Evans signed some very good footballers in the summers. they had problems with injuries but now those problems have eased as Tonge, Ainswoeth and Noble all being back after injuries. Furthermore they were able so sign highly-rated Liverpool striker Morgan on loan and he will be available for this match. Strikers Revell (rest) and Nardiello (virus) are also back in contention. A victory would give Rotherham further options to bolster their squad to make sure they realise their promotion push. These two sides already faced each other as Aldershot were defeated by Rotherham with 3-0. Rotherham have won their 4 last matches on the road and will do so here as well. GL

[RedDevil92]

Re: FA Cup > 29th Dec - 7th Jan Barnsley-Burnley under 2.75 @1.72 4/10 188bet Barnsley have a underish home record. Striker Davies (8 goals) has got an offer from Bolton and will be out of this match as Bolton hope to sign him in time for their FA Cup match. Furthermore striker Tudgay (3 goals) who was on loan from Nottingham returned to his parent club after breaking his collarbone, and mdifielder Greening (1 goal) returned to Nottingham as well. Midfielder Mellis (3 goals / 8 assists) is also a doubt for this match. Burnley are not in great form like Barnsley. Striker Austin (19 goals) misses out again. Midfielder Marney (2 goals / 1 assists) and forward Paterson (4 goals / 1 assist) came off with injury problems against Sheffield Wednesday and will be assessed. Winger Stanislas (2 goals / 6 assists) is another injury doubt due to harmstring problems. Both teams have problems in their offense which will see this match being underish. GL

[Alexc]

Re: FA Cup > 29th Dec - 7th Jan Way I always try to look at injuries is to look at a recent result, say Middlesbrough's 4-2 win against Blackpool, and see what the line-up was like. If most the people set to miss out didn't feature in that game, I think it's a decent way to gauge their chances.

[HastGill1]

Re: FA Cup > 29th Dec - 7th Jan I don't really agree, might be a good way if this were a normal league game but it isn't and we are talking about full timers against part timers, Boro have a strong squad possibly only second to Cardiff in the Championship and I don't think league results have much of a bearing on such a one-off game.

[Darran]

Re: FA Cup > 29th Dec - 7th Jan Exactly if Boro were playing in the League this weekend you might look to take them on, but they arent they are playing Hastings and it really shouldn't make any difference.

[r0bski]

Re: FA Cup > 29th Dec - 7th Jan

Just watched the O'Neill interview after the Liverpool game and he said Sunderland ran out of puff in the second half after a promising start. To be fair I don't think he was making excuses, Sunderland do have a small squad and it is a concern. The other issue to consider is that after the Bolton game, Sunderland play several teams in and around them in the prem, important games so I think you have a point with regards to O'Neill's priorities. I'll wait for further developments but right now it looks unlikely I will pull the trigger with Sunderland all things considered. I've noticed centre-forward James Constable will be suspended for Oxford Utd against Sheffield Utd, he isn't a prolific scorer this campaign but does seem to play a fair bit. I would ask Oxford fans (or anyone in the know) how important a miss will Constable be?

Im an Oxford fan and on Constable I'll say this - hes our captain so he'll obviously be missed. Hes also consistently one of our best players and goalscorers this season. Turning down a move to Swindon showed his loyalty to us, and he'll be missed in this game. I sometimes bet on my own team and often regret it, and I would have thought Sheffield will walk this.