NFL: Week 16 picks

[Samba_SamPa]

In here :ok

[kevshat]

Re: NFL: Week 16 picks 4pts Atlanta (-3.5) to beat Detroit 20/21 BetVictor Only complacency can cost the Falcons here you feel. They have been like a juggernaut which has shown no signs of coming to a halt while the Lions are beginning to look like a side who have been beaten mentally and can’t wait for the season to end. It is never easy to go to Ford Field and win but I think the Falcons have what it takes to do that here. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/atlanta--detroit-betting-atlanta-can-secure-the-number-one-seed-with-a-win-in-detroit

[vitalyo]

Re: NFL: Week 16 picks 20:30 EST Atlanta Falcons vs Detroit Lions 3 wagers 1)Total pass receptions made by Tony Gonzalez Over 5½ pass receptions -125(1.80) thegreek 10 units same odds 5 dimes , bodog and heritage -140 (1.71) GP 14 Catches 87 Catches/gm 6.2 Yds (rec) 880 TDs (comb) 8 Fumbles 0 TE Gonzalez is by far Ryan top rec threat when the club travels which means Ryan likes to abuse the short pass when on the road He is average 6.2 catches per game . I like this bet because whatever the game plan is he will go to Gonzales a lot . The line is at 5.5 @1.80 I don't think it's gonna last long, it should be 6 Ryan on the road Pass Attempts 38.50 rank7 Det D 34.36 rank15 Pass Completions 26.36 rank 3 Det D 21.64 rank16 no rushing game makes this wager almost perfect + det rush defense is mid-pack, in this spot Gonzalez should have no problem catching 6 2)(ATL vs DET) Total Rushing Yards – Matt Ryan (ATL) Under 5½ @1.86 (-115) 10 units bodog Ryan last 5 games 12/16/12 NYG W 34-0 M. Ryan ATT1 YDS-1 12/09/12 @CAR L 20-30 M. Ryan ATT0 YDS 0 11/29/12 NO W 23-13 M. Ryan ATT3 YDS-2 11/25/12 @TB W 24-23 M. Ryan ATT1 YDS13 11/18/12 ARI W 23-19 M. Ryan ATT3 YDS-3 Bodog's bookmaker smoking crack LOL .How did he came up with 5,5 ? Atl is in the playoff and the last thing they need Ryan to get hurt , even if they are losing i don't think they gonna ask Ryan to rush the ball 3)turnovers committed 5dimes 5133 ATL turnovers committed +½ 1.667 5134 DET turnovers committed -½ 2.200 3 units 5dimes What happens when a young QB throws the ball 50+ times a game? They turn the ball over. Oh, and who are they throwing the ball to exactly :)? Their receiving corps is decimated with injuries. It's Calvin Johnson and nobody else. ATL D will be fishing all night Not the best bet but @2.20 i'll take it . GL. NFL 2012/13 31 win - 14 lost +123.57 units NFL 2012/13 teasers 1W -0L +7.6 units NCAAF 2012/13 0W-1L -10 units

[AGurv]

Re: NFL: Week 16 picks NFL 2012-2013 Overall 39W-38L-3P -3.60 units (50.64%) Lions +4 to win 1 unit @ 5dimes

[blackcrow]

Re: NFL: Week 16 picks Atlanta -6.5 @ 2.51 sportsbet Atlanta -11.5 @ 4.20 sportsbet Hard to see what Detroit has to play for here. Stafford throws too many INTs; they do not have much of a running game while Johnson is their only go-to WR and expect him to be double-teamed here. As for Atlanta, a win here and they can lock up home field advantage throughout the playoffs as they are coming off a 34-0 thumping of the Giants. While there is the fear of a let down spot here, they have too much to play for, and like QB Ryan to continue his good form where he had 270 passing yards and 3 TDs last week while the secondary allowed just 170 passing yards and got 2 INTs. The run game has improved as they have 120+ rushing yards in 2 of their last 3 games, and should do well to complement the passing game. Record: 36-80 (-6.20)

[allthethings]

Re: NFL: Week 16 picks Got the Lions +3.5 @ 5Dimes earlier @ 1.98. Atlanta on the road, Detroit a decent spoiler, and Detroit not as bad as their record indicates, and actually, Atlanta not as good as theirs does. Added to which, the odds have a little to do with Detroit losing 10-38 at Arizona, and that was a game in which they outgained Zona but were killed by turnovers. I think the Lions will perform well in front of their home crowd these last two games, give them something to think about next year. By the way...did you know Detroit is actually ranked higher than the Falcons in all four major categories (pass/run offense and defense)? How does that happen?

[blackcrow]

Re: NFL: Week 16 picks

Atlanta -6.5 @ 2.51 :ok Atlanta -11.5 @ 4.20 :ok

Washington -12.5 @ 3.04 sportsbet Washington have won their last 5 games as they look to get RG3 back for this game, and continue their quest for a playoff spot. They have scored 31+ points in 4 of these 5 wins based on their running game which has seen them rush for 120+ yards in 13 of their 14 games this season (average of 162 yards per game in these last 5 games) and they have thrown for 13 TDs and just 3 INTs in these games. Philly looks like they have given up as they have allowed 30+ points in 5 of their last 6 games, and given up 120+ rushing yards in 8 of their last 10 games as well as 19 passing TDs and no INTs in their last 8 games. On offence, Philly have 8 passing TDs with 5 INTs in their last 8 games, while they have run for 100 yards or less in 7 of their last 10 games. Washington have allowed their share of passing TDs but their rush defence has been good, allowing less than 100 yards in 9 of their 14 games. With plenty to play for, Washington look better on both sides of the ball and like them to win this one well Houston -16.5 @ 3.30 centrebet Minnesota have been riding Peterson during their season but they face a very good Houston defence that will block the lanes to stop AP running the ball. They know that Ponder is no threat to them as he has struggled to pass the ball so they will go man-on-man and send at least one safety to stop the threat of Peterson. If they do that, then Minnesota have no offence and expect plenty of 3 and outs. As for Houston, they will look to Schaub to continue to do well as he has 10 passing TDs in his last 4 home games, and given that Minnesota have allowed 16 passing TDs in their last 7 games - at least 2 TDs in 5 of these 7 games - then if they put an extra man in the secondary, this should allow Foster to do well, as he is equally as good as Peterson when he is in the mood. It is this balanced offence that should lead the Texans to a win and home field advantage in the playoffs, as they also have the defence to stop the run, as their LB corp has some very good players like Watt. Indianapolis -13.5 @ 2.95 centrebet Colts are looking to seal a playoff spot with a win here as they should dispose of a Kansas side that has just two wins for the season and has scored less than 10 points in 4 of their last 5 games. Kansas have struggled to pass for TDs with just 2 in their last 6 games, and the Colts secondary should do enough to keep them out. They prefer to run the ball and though they have ran for 100+ yards in 6 of their last 8 games, they cannot convert these yards into points. However their defence has allowed at least 2 passing TDs in their last 4 home games, and face a very good young QB looking to get his team into the playoffs, as next week they have a tough game against Houston and will not be wanting to rely on that game to give them a playoff berth. Kansas's won rush defence has allowed 100+ yards in 10 of their 14 games which should give Luck some extra yards to continue their drives Cincinnati -2.5 @ 3.05 centrebet Cincinnati have won 5 of their last 6 games, and they need to win their last two games to clinch a playoff spot, as they have scored 12 passing TDs in these last 6 games, while they have ran for 120+ yards in their last 5 games. Pittsbugh have lost 4 of their last 5 games, as their momentum has died abnd they face all sorts of problems as they look to stay in touch for a playoff spot. They have allowed 7 passing TD in their last 4 games, while their rush defence has been good, it will be tested here by an improving Bengals rushing attack. On defence, Cincinnati have allowed 1 passing TD or none at all in their last 6 games, and with Rothlisburger still trying to find his groove, then like them to contain him, while their rushing attack has struggled to gain yards and face a Bengals rush defence that has allowed less than 50 yards in their last 3 games. Cincinnati are the form side, and have at present, the better offence while their not much between these respective defences Dallas v New Orleans over 61.5 @ 2.99 sportsbet Dallas have won 4 of their last 6 games as they have thrown for 11 TDs in these 6 games, and with their running game struggling to get going, even though New Orleans has allowed 120+ yards in 4 of their last 5 games, expect Romo to air the ball quite a bit here, as NO has allowed 18 passing TDs in their 7 road games this season. NO will look to finish the year on a high after their sub-par performances and like Brees to do well here, as he has thrown at least 3 TDs in 9 of his 15 games this season, and Dallas has given up 15 passing TDs in their last 6 games. Also Dallas has allowed 100+ rushing yards in 6 of their last 9 games while NO has ran for 100+ yards in 6 of their last 7 games. Expect the offence to prevail here as Dallas needs to keep winning for a playoff spot while NO is playing for pride Green Bay v Tennessee under 38.5 @ 2.96 sportsbet Given that they have clinched a playoff spot, they are looking to win one of their last two games to get a first round bye in the playoffs and should beat Tennessee here. However, with the amount of inuuries they have had this season, expect them to be a bit more conservative and look to minimise the game time for some players, and expect them to use more of their running game here, as they have ran for 113+ yards in their last 4 games. GB will look to exploit a Titans defence that has allowed 100+ rushing yards in 10 of their 14 games, while they have allowed less than 230 passing yards in their last 6 games, with 9 passing TDs allowed but they have 10 INTs in these 6 games. GB's own defence will look to lock up Johnson as they have ran for 100+ yards in 6 of their last 8 games. Tennessee have thrown 7 INTs in their last 3 games and with the GB secondary noted for looking for the INT, then expect them to stick to the run. Believe that with such an emphasis on running the ball by both sides, that this should lead a low scoring game New England -20.5 @ 2.88 centrebet NE have still got an outside chance to get a top 2 seed if they win out and other results go their way. They will look to bounce back from their loss to San Francisco last week, as they face a Jacksonville defence that has allowed 527 passing yards and 5 TDs to Houston a few weeks ago and face a much better QB here. Also their run game should do well, as they have ran for 100+ yards in 7 of their last 8 games while the Jags have allowed 100+ yards in their last 7 games. Jacksonville have little on offence with just 1 TD in their last 3 games while they have ran for 100+ yards in just 4 of their 14 games. The Patriots should win this one easily if they keep their mind on the job, as the Jaguars have not done much this season Carolina -16.5 @ 3.10 centrebet Both teams are out of the playoff picture but carolina have won 3 of their last 5 games and look to finish the season off well. They have QB Newton who has thrown for 10 TDs (and no INTs) in his last 5 games and like him to do well on this Oakland secondary that has allowed 13 TDs (and have 5 INTs) in their last 7 games. Also, Carolina have run for 100+ yards in 7 of their last 9 games while Oakland have allowed 100+ yards in 6 of their last 8 games. On offence, Oakland have 13 passing TDs but also 9 INTs in their last 7 games while they have ran for 100+ yards in just 2 of these last 7 games. Carolina have allowed just 5 passing TDs in their last 4 games, and allowed 10 passing TDs with 7 INTs in their 7 home games this season. Carolina have the much more balanced offence while their defence has done well of late, and like them to stop this pretty poor Raiders offence Denver v Cleveland under 36.5 @ 3.32 sportsbet Denver has pretty much wrapped a top two spot and will be looking to stay healthy in the next two weeks. They have a very good QB who should do well again here, but doubt that he will be allowed to have many big plays as the Browns secondary has done pretty well of late, allowing less than 200 yards in 5 of their last 8 games, with just 6 passing TDs allowed and 5 INTs gained. Denver will look to their improving run game that has averaged 124 yards in their last 5 games, as Cleveland has allowed 100+ yards in 6 of their last 8 games. On offence, Cleveland should have little joy with their running game as Denver has allowed less than 100 yards in 8 of their last 9 games while in the passing game, Cleveland has 5 TDs and 7 INTs in their last 7 games, and though Denver has allowed 15 passing TDs in winning their last 8 games they also have 14 INTs in these games. Record: 38-80 (-1.49)

[kevshat]

Re: NFL: Week 16 picks 4pts Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati - Under 42.5pts 17/20 Paddy Power I think this will be a match for the defences purely because of what is at stake. The coaches could be forgiven for being a little cautious with the play calling as season’s are on the line here. When these two sides met in Cincinnati earlier in the season there were 41pts and that’s about the most I would expect here, in fact I wouldn’t be surprised if this is a 13-10 sort of game so I’m happy to go under 42.5pts. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/cincinnati--pittsburgh-betting-expect-defences-to-have-the-better-of-afc-north-battle

[thegeneral55]

Re: NFL: Week 16 picks Hey guys read this forum every week and post very occasionally , decided to go for some pretty big bets today and any feedback would be greatly appreciated , thanks Sea/SF Over 39 points @ 20u - seattle scores over 100 points last 2 games , albeit against a much weaker D than this but momentum is everything in this game and i can see maybe 50 points here as the seattle D has shown vulnerability too lately and SF are certainly no mugs with Kaepernick showing good chemistry with his receivers and as always Gore is a monster. Cowboys -2.5 @ 8u - Really like Dallas to slow down brees and co here with a good pass defense and with their own offensive weapons against a bad saints defense i expect probably a 7 - 10 points victory. Giants -2.5 @ 8u - man do these giants have to bounce back from last weeks mauling and i think they may just light the ravens up here ,the ravens defense is a shadow of its former self and offensively they are pretty average , especially if rice can be stopped , im going for a big big new york win Jax + 15 @ 5u - new negland showed last week they are not invincible and jax almost scored an upset over another highly fancied team in the houston texans a little while back at their stadium and 15 points is a huge total to give up on the road. Cinci + 3.5 @ 5u , gut feeling i suppose, tight game with both teams sensing the baltimore decline and this is the chance to catch them , definitely cannot see pitts winning by more than a field goal here even if they do manage to stop BJGE and AJ Green. Very small win for Cinci i think , 17- 16 kinda feel to it. Houston - 8 @ 5u. Minnesota are a one man team and although that man is AP he is still only one man. Houston only allowed 3 Tds rushing all season and i can see JJ and co stopping APs attempt at Dickersons record. Theres also a guy goes by the name of Arian Foster who will want to show its not all about peterson today, double digit texans win.

[kevshat]

Re: NFL: Week 16 picks 4pts Baltimore vs New York Giants - Over 47pts 20/21 Ladbrokes I think this will be a high scoring match. Both defences are struggling for form this season and both offenses have the deep threat and the solidity of a decent run game to open up that threat so I would expect to see plenty of point in this match, more than the 47pts the total points line is predicted at. Eli Manning can pick any defence apart while Flacco is being allowed to throw the ball more this season so we should see plenty of points here. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/new-york-giants--baltimore-betting-offenses-should-be-on-top-at-the-m-t-bank-stadium

[AGurv]

Re: NFL: Week 16 picks Colts -5 to win 1 unit @ 5dimes Saints +1 (+110) to bet 1 unit @ 5dimes Ravens -1.5 to win 1 unit @ 5dimes 49ers +2.5 to win 1 unit @ 5dimes

[vitalyo]

Re: NFL: Week 16 picks Yesterday 1w-2L -16.4 units 13:00 EST Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers 1)(CIN vs PIT) Total Passing Yards – Andy Dalton (CIN) Over 215½ bodog 10 units Pitt can stuff the run, likely to be a tight game, Dalton will be throwing deep at pitts injured secondary all day 2)Total pass completions made by Andy Dalton Over 20 pass completions @1.95 thegreek 10 units Dalton gone Over this # 9 times and 5 times Under ( 9w-5l ) 3)(CIN vs PIT) Total Receptions – A.J. Green (CIN) Over 5½ 1.80 bodog 10 units Daltons favourite target and rightly so as he is one of the greats right now. 4)(CIN vs PIT) Total Receiving Yards – A.J. Green (CIN) Over 75½ 1.80 bodog 10 units A.J. Green vs. Steelers Secondary Cincinnati has one of the league’s best receivers in AJ Green, and unfortunately for the Steelers they have been struck badly by injuries at just the worst time. They lost their best cornerback already (Ike Taylor) and now facing the prospect that their second best, Keenan Lewis, will also miss the game after injuring his knee stepping in a hole in practice. That leaves the Steelers with a major patchwork job in the secondary and trying to limit one of the league’s most dangerous weapons with players that are unlikely to have the quality to match up with him. Green has been targeted 18 times in his 3 matchups against the Steelers coming away with a combined total of 131 yards on 8 receptions. What really stands out is that he has a total of just 21 yards after the catch in these games. Green is 10th in yards after the catch right now so this may be his chance to personally put the nail in the coffin of the Steelers season. Last week the Steelers handed Josh Victorian his first start and he was targeted heavily. He allowed seven receptions from the nine times he was thrown at and looked like he could have given up more if they had wanted to go that way. Victorian will start again this week and a platoon of sub-package players will have their hands full in trying to keep AJ Green in check. Adding playoff scenarios Bengals: Clinch a playoff berth with a win over the Steelers on Sunday. Steelers: Clinch a playoff berth with two more wins. NFL 2012/13 32 win - 16 lost +107.17 units NFL 2012/13 teasers 1W -0L +7.6 units NCAAF 2012/13 0W-1L -10 units GL. More picks later

[allthethings]

Re: NFL: Week 16 picks Season: 26-22, most not posted here. Today: KC +6 NY Giants -1 Jax +14.5 TB -3 No-Dall U53 Caught pretty decent lines this week...was paying more close attention. I'd like to finish the season with some wins. The KC and Jax bets are typical late-season picks, getting points at home against teams that need to win. Giants...well, they really need to win and Baltimore is locked in already...and NY has been here before: last season, in fact. The under picks is my standard strategy, which so far this season is 6-8, mainly because of the Saints. But their defense is better with Vilma back, and Dallas will hopefully clamp down on the Saints' passing game.

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: NFL: Week 16 picks Last minute for a change :$ Just read Ike Taylor is listed as inactive, so Bengals (+3) 3pts @ 11/10 Bet365 The Tigers can sense a division title there for the taking with both the Ravens and the Steelers being banged up. Fancy them to beat the Steelers tonight, but having a FG loss onside too is a nice insurance. Panthers (-8.5) 4pts @ 10/11 Betfred Raiders are baaaaaaaad, think Panthers at home can run up a score tonight and keep a Raiders side who failed to trouble the Chiefs' endzone last week well in arrears. Vikings (+7.5) 3pts @ 20/23 Betfred Texans have had less of an air of awesomeness about them the last 3 or 4 weeks needing OT to beat some lesser teams, then a blowout in Foxboro. I think the Vikes can cause them problems tonight and if not able to get the shock W they should be able to keep within range.

[vitalyo]

Re: NFL: Week 16 picks No time for the write up :( 16:05 EST Cleveland Browns @ Denver Broncos 5)(CLE vs DEN) Total Passing Yards – Peyton Manning (DEN) Under289½ @1.95 bodog 8 units Manning will not need to throw this much to win the game 16:25 EST New York Giants @ Baltimore Ravens 6)Ray Rice Total Rushing Yards Over (78.5) 1.91 williamhill 6 units bwin 85.5 @1.85 bet365 84.5 @1.80 for the over bodog 82,5 @1.80 for the over 16:25 EST Chicago Bears @ Arizona Cardinals 7)(CHI vs ARI) Total Passing Yards – Ryan Lindley (ARI) over 175½ @1.80 bodog 10 units 175.5 is way too low ARIZONA OFFENSE Passing Yards 184.21 RANK 29 CHICAGO DEFENSE Passing Yards 210.64 RANK 6 GL. NFL 2012/13 32 win - 16 lost +107.17 units NFL 2012/13 teasers 1W -0L +7.6 units NCAAF 2012/13 0W-1L -10 units More picks around 18:00 EST

[kevshat]

Re: NFL: Week 16 picks 4pts Seattle vs San Francisco - Under 40.5pts 20/21 Ladbrokes These two defences are about as good as there is in the NFC at the minute and with what is on the line I think this will be a low scoring game. I know Seattle’s offense is on fire and San Francisco shipped over 30pts last week but I expect this one to be tight throughout. Coaches might get a little cautious with their play calling and control of the ball will be paramount so I’ll take under 40.5pts here. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/san-francisco--seattle-betting-nfc-west-title-showdown-can-be-a-low-scoring-game

[vitalyo]

Re: NFL: Week 16 picks 4W-0L on 13:00 games 20:20 EST San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks BEST BET (SF vs SEA) - Total Passing Attempts in the game - Russell Wilson Over 26½ @ 1.87 bodog 10 units This is very simple bet and the best bet on the board. No need to complicate simple situation. Seattle will not be able able to run against SF D there for will have to go to the air . Wilson with only 62.92 pass comp % will throw the ball at least 30 times Pass Attempts against SF D at 36.5 because you can't run against them . If your book doesn't offer him on pass attempts . Take him OVER 16.5 pass comp thats the # across the board with few books. [ATTACH]3851[/ATTACH] GL. NFL 2012/13 32 win - 16 lost +107.17 units NFL 2012/13 teasers 1W -0L +7.6 units NCAAF 2012/13 0W-1L -10 units

[blackcrow]

Re: NFL: Week 16 picks

Washington -12.5 @ 3.04 :( Won by only 7 points Houston -16.5 @ 3.30 :( Not as good as I thought they were Indianapolis -13.5 @ 2.95 :( Won by only 7 points Cincinnati -2.5 @ 3.05 :D Dallas v New Orleans over 61.5 @ 2.99 :D Green Bay v Tennessee under 38.5 @ 2.96 :( Did not expect them to put up 55 points New England -20.5 @ 2.88 :( They were poor Carolina -16.5 @ 3.10 :( Won by 11 points Denver v Cleveland under 36.5 @ 3.32 :(

Seattle -9.5 @ 3.25 centrebet Seattle have scored 50+ points in their last two games but will face a very stiff test here. San Francisco off a very good win themselves, winning in New England but not sure how they will back up here given that they would have spent quite a bit of energy to win that game. Seattle have a very good home field advantage and with a win here, will keep alive their chances of winning their division. Not much between the two sides as both are built on running the ball and very good defences to stop the ball moving forward, but Seattle's QB Wilson has been impressive at home this year and like them to be the difference here Record: 40-87 (-4.45)

[blackcrow]

Re: NFL: Week 16 picks

Seattle -9.5 @ 3.25 :D

Record: 41-87 (-2.20)

[vitalyo]

Re: NFL: Week 16 picks

1)(CIN vs PIT) Total Passing Yards – Andy Dalton (CIN) Over 215½ bodog 10 units :nana A. Dalton 278 yards 2)Total pass completions made by Andy Dalton Over 20 pass completions @1.95 thegreek 10 units:nana A. Dalton comp 24 3)(CIN vs PIT) Total Receptions – A.J. Green (CIN) Over 5½ 1.80 bodog 10 units :nana A. Green REC 10 4)(CIN vs PIT) Total Receiving Yards – A.J. Green (CIN) Over 75½ 1.80 bodog 10 units :nana A. Green 116 yards 5)(CLE vs DEN) Total Passing Yards – Peyton Manning (DEN) Under289½ @1.95 bodog 8 units :wall 6)Ray Rice Total Rushing Yards Over (78.5) 1.91 williamhill 6 units:nana 107 yards 7)(CHI vs ARI) Total Passing Yards – Ryan Lindley (ARI) over 175½ @1.80 bodog 10 units :wall 8)(SF vs SEA) - Total Passing Attempts in the game - Russell Wilson Over 26½ @ 1.87 bodog 10 units:wall

5W-3L +10.96 Some bad beats Lindley got taken out in the 3Q with 141 yards :wall . Seattle took 21:0 lead in the 1Q ,i knew my bet was done , expected competitive game . NFL 2012/13 37 win - 19 lost +118.13 units NFL 2012/13 teasers 1W -0L +7.6 units NCAAF 2012/13 0W-1L -10 units GL. Monday night picks later

[allthethings]

Re: NFL: Week 16 picks Now you know why I don't post my picks...when I do, I lose. Maddening game for me was the one ****** by Romeo Crennell...KC tied 13-13, face 4th and 1 at the 27 yard line with 10 minutes left or something, and they don't attempt the 42-yard FG. Instead, Quinn is stuffed on a sneak, and my +6 with KC gets beat by a point. Don't even get me started on Quinn...INT in the end zone, INT run back for a Indy TD. What a ****.