robertob's eye-catcher thread

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread 16.50 Wolverhampton: Precision Strike @ 4/1 Bet365 - 4pts win This is a very poor race but if one stands out for me than it is really Precision Strike here in my mind. He ran now the last two times very well but was on both occasions an unlucky horse. The Friday one week ago at Wolverhampton he travelled well enough in rear of the field and improved his position in good style when turning for home but was badly hampered around 1f out and lost every chance as a result of that as he was out off his rhythm and didn't recover. He dropped 3lb for this run and appeared three days later at the same track and was equally unlucky again but really showed that he's now a very well handicapped horse in my mind. He was travelling in rear again which wasn't the best position though as the pace was slow and when the leaders kicked away 3f out he simply was not able to react from behind as he was locked on the inside. Entering the home straight he had loads to do but was finally in the clear and finished then like a train cutting back the deficit in eye-catching fashion to finish 3rd in the end. Generous as the handicapper is he gets another pound off the mark so that I can't help myself but Precision Strike should be more than ready to strike if finally getting a clear run.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread 17.45 Kempton: Vitznau @ 5/2 Paddy Power - 5pts win Vitznau doesn't get any younger and is now winless for quite a while but the last time we've seen him on a racetrack, in November here at Kempton, he looked as if he would regain some of the old sparkle when he travelled super well on the bridle until almost 1f out and finished in a good fashion to take the 3rd place. The first three came a good deal clear of the rest of the field and this form works out very well indeed, so it looks fair to assume that even of a 2lb higher mark he might be now very well handicapped again. I wouldn't really mind the break since November and think that from a good draw with Kirby booked he might be very hard to beat tomorrow.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread Winner again today. Vitznau won it almost on the bridle, was just too good for the rest here. Nice drift in the price as well as SP was 7/2! Makes it now four winners out the last ten bets for this thread and the profit is growing very well. So not too bad after all. Overall Stats: Staked: 69pts Returned: 121.32pts Profit/Loss: +52.32pts ROI: +75.82% Bets: 22 Wins: 6 S/R: 27.27%

[Tedthewolf]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread :clap Superb Rob keep it up :ok

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread Thanks Ted! 17.10 Wolverhampton: Imaginary World @9/2 Bet365 - 4pts win The form books tells a clear story: Imaginary World is a very frustrating horse. Only two wins in 39 starts looks pretty poor. However I feel she clearly showed some promise in her most recent start here at Wolverhampton when she had just everything against herself. It started already badly after leaving the gates when she was bumped and forced to lose position, and it continued in the home bend when he was simply locked on the inside and had to wait until approaching the home straight to try and make some headway, what she did eventually quite stylishly and she appeared to be a big threat until she found her way being blocked at the furlong marker. When she was badly hampered again shortly afterwards her chance was completely gone, yet she finished still a very decent sixth just 3½ beaten in the end. The way she travelled through the race clearly indicated that she's in fantastic form now and very well handicapped after slipping down to a more than handy looking mark - in fact she never ran off such a low mark in a Handicap before. As she's allowed to race of the same mark again tomorrow I really think she must have a huge chance in this race here, that looks a much weaker contest than the last one anyway.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread 15.05 Lingfield: Khawatim @ 2/1 Ladbrokes - 6pts win Won earlier this month at Wolverhampton by a narrow margin after encountering all sort of traffic problems in the closing stages, yet he was brave and won in the final strides by a neck finishing strongly when finally in the clear. A 4lb rise in the mark for this success shouldn't make too much of a difference and he could be easily still very well handicapped.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread The last two selections didn't run as well as I hoped they would, both were placed, yet it still cost 10pts of the profit. 17.00 Wolverhampton: Dundrum Dancer @ 6/1 Bet365 - 2pts win I thought this mare showed a very impressive performance in her most recent race at Wolverhampton after coming back from a 2 month long break. She was a 40/1 shot that day but certainly didn't run like one as she was travelling strongly in mid-field on the inside turning for home and found plenty when asked for an effort. She finished a decent 2nd in the end, just beaten by the lightly raced winner who was probably well handicapped that day. For Dundrum Dancer it was the first time over the 9f trip and while she showed two decent performances in the summer last year at Brighton this was probably her best performance so far. Earlier in her career she showed some promise in Ireland, finishing placed in some decent races, but so far she found it impossible to put her head in front. This could change tomorrow as she should be in great shape with the recent run under her belt, she is competitive over course and distance and while her mark went up 2lb it looks a wise move to give promising 5lb claimer WT Davis the ride. This race here tomorrow looks competitive but I think Dundrum Dancer will be in with a big shout nonetheless and 6/1 looks to be a shade to big in my mind.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread 15.50 Kempton: Hidden Link @ 5/2 Paddy Power - 4pts win Hidden Link won really well on his Handicap debut at Wolverhampton a fortnight ago. He was in a good position when the pace increased from 3f out but he finished strongly and well on top of the rest of the field to win it more comfortably than the actual winning distance suggest I think. There should be more to come and the rise in the mark of 3lb could be lenient. Even more so as he steps up in trip to 11f for the first time and more improvement is expected over this sort of distance considering that he's out of a multiple Group winner over 12f. I feel the bookies got things wrong here as well as they installed Great Ormond as the favourite. He was fair and square beaten by Hidden Link in the Wolverhampton race though, while Hidden Link had to carry 7lb more that day. Sure, Great Ormond showed great improvement for the step up in trip and won well a few days later, but he's up by 9lb for that success, which means he meats Hidden Link on four pounds worse terms tomorrow compared to the race two weeks ago.

[Aykay1]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread Great thread mate, best of luck :ok

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread Thanks AK... unfortunately I'm hitting a bit of a bad run at the moment... 18.20 Kempton: Litmus @ 5/1 Bet365 - 5pts win I expect this horse to hack up tomorrow as long as she gets a clear run. Might sound like a brave statement for a filly that hasn't won a single race in ten starts. Her last two performances were really eye-catching though and there is no doubt that she's way better than her current mark and better than the horses she's contesting against tomorrow. Eight days ago at Lingfield she travelled smoothly in mid-field actually and looked very dangerous turning for home, didn't have a chance to get a clear run and unleash a challenge however. She was simply locked on the inside as Spining Ridge went alongside her to the right and as a result of that she couldn't get out there. There was no room in front of her either, as the front pair was battling out the win, but there was no gap to squeeze through (very impressive to see in the head on if you recorded the replay on TV). That was just very unlucky as she was going much the strongest 1f out and one could only have the feeling her jockey had still loads of horse beneath. This confirmed the strong performance in her penultimate start, as well at Lingfield, then over 10f though, when she went from the front that day, setting a pretty decent pace and having everyone off the bridle 4f out while going strongly herself turning for home, just to tire badly very deep inside the final furlong to finish 4th in the end. The 1m trip is more suitable anyway and as she's contesting over this tomorrow and dropping into class 7 company, being able of racing of the bottom weight I feel she can't get beaten here if things go normal as she has no problem with attitude I think. It only can be a bonus that Hayley Turner gets the leg up as she enjoys a healthy 19% strike rate with trainer S. Dow for the past 12 month.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread

Thanks AK... unfortunately I'm hitting a bit of a bad run at the moment... 18.20 Kempton: Litmus @ 5/1 Bet365 - 5pts win I expect this horse to hack up tomorrow as long as she gets a clear run. Might sound like a brave statement for a filly that hasn't won a single race in ten starts. Her last two performances were really eye-catching though and there is no doubt that she's way better than her current mark and better than the horses she's contesting against tomorrow. Eight days ago at Lingfield she travelled smoothly in mid-field actually and looked very dangerous turning for home, didn't have a chance to get a clear run and unleash a challenge however. She was simply locked on the inside as Spining Ridge went alongside her to the right and as a result of that she couldn't get out there. There was no room in front of her either, as the front pair was battling out the win, but there was no gap to squeeze through (very impressive to see in the head on if you recorded the replay on TV). That was just very unlucky as she was going much the strongest 1f out and one could only have the feeling her jockey had still loads of horse beneath. This confirmed the strong performance in her penultimate start, as well at Lingfield, then over 10f though, when she went from the front that day, setting a pretty decent pace and having everyone off the bridle 4f out while going strongly herself turning for home, just to tire badly very deep inside the final furlong to finish 4th in the end. The 1m trip is more suitable anyway and as she's contesting over this tomorrow and dropping into class 7 company, being able of racing of the bottom weight I feel she can't get beaten here if things go normal as she has no problem with attitude I think. It only can be a bonus that Hayley Turner gets the leg up as she enjoys a healthy 19% strike rate with trainer S. Dow for the past 12 month.

All confidence justified. Won easily, had just to be pushed out. Fantastic, as things didn't really work out my way in recent time but this one is just one of these bets that make all the hard work worthy. I'm absolutely over the moon, even more as it was a big bet for me. Overall Stats: Staked: 90pts Returned: 151.32pts Profit/Loss: +61.32pts ROI: +100.68% Bets: 27 Wins: 7 S/R: 25.93%

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread 19.50 Wolverhampton: Armada Bay @ 5/1 Bet365 - 3pts win This lightly raced 3yo gelding makes plenty of appeal on his first try over 9f. He ran a huge race here at Wolverhampton just 10 days ago on a day that saw front-runners and prominent ridden horses being favoured by the conditions on the All-Weather track which made it very difficult for horses not ridden close to the pace to quicken and to make some ground from behind. Armada Bay was ridden in mid-field here in her last race, a race where the leader set a rather slow gallop. Armada Bay tried to make some ground on the outside from 3f out then and did so indeed but was outpaced turning for home when the front-runner kicked on and the pace increased substantially. He stayed in touch with the main group of the field and appeared to go strongly then again, though he found himself a clear run denied over 1f out and had to be switched to the outside by his jockey. He found soon back the balance and finished super strongly to land the 2nd place eventually. This performance indicated that a step up in trip could be the right move which is backed up by his pedigree as his sire was a top class miler and there is some stamina on the dam side with her being placed in Group 3 company over 10f. So the step up to 9f tomorrow looks definitely the right thing and could bring out further improvement. A mark of 54 is pretty workable as well and it doesn't take too much to win this race anyway I feel.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread Great Stuff today Rob :clap good luck with your selection tomorrow:ok

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread Thanks Ted. Armada Bay finished only 2nd unfortunately, still ran a decent enough race though. But no winner, no money of course... very excited about one horse tomorrow though: 15.20 Wolverhampton: Yungaburra @ 5/1 Bet365 - 4pts win This is a really poor race but Yungaburra stands out, no doubt. He's not getting any younger but he really is thriving at the moment, demonstrating his well-being with excellent performances in the last weeks. Just nine days ago he was probably a rather unlucky loser at Lingfield, travelling like a dream still hard on the bridle turning for home, Franny Norton looked to have loads of horse beneath him but simply didn't find a gap to unleash all the power this horse got. Only 1/2f out a gap finally opened, too late of course. This form looks very strong with the runners-up and 3rd place horse having already won subsequently.Yungaburra ran a huge race before that at Wolverhampton as well, finishing in good fashion from the back landing the the runners-up spot on a day when the track conditions made it difficult for horses coming from the rear of the field to quick and gain ground. The winner of that race won another one subsequently btw, franking this form. Yungaburra didn't get up in the mark for either run which is fair enough but obviously lenient as he's just 2lb above his last winning mark (won here at Wolverhampton last September with a bit in hand off 48). I'm very confident about this horse's chance in this race here tomorrow, only slight worry is the wide draw and that these races with that many runners can get a bit messy sometimes here around Wolverhampton. But as long as he gets a clear run he won't get beaten I feel.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread 12.50 Lingfield: Fire In Babylon @ 5/1 Bet365 - 3pts win It wasn't difficult to be impressed by Fire In Babylon's most recent performance at Kempton when he travelled nicely in rear but had loads to do from well of the pace while turning for home in a rather slowly ran affair. While the eventual winner had the run of the race, travelling prominently and was able to kick away 2f out Fire In Babylon had to work his way through the field from the rear, yet he ran on very strongly under a hands and heels ride to finish 3rd in the end. He surly looks like a horse that is well ahead of the current mark, which is confirmed by the fact that he's able to race off 3lb below his last winning mark. He's also generally lightly raced for a five year and looks primed for a big run tomorrow. The race looks a really poor one, even though 16 runners at Lingfield can be tricky. But that's the only worry I have. If the hand break is really off then I looks hard to see him getting beaten.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread 16.30 Wolverhampton: Patriotic @ 7/1 ladbrokes - 3pts win Good to see the money already coming for this horse as this increases my confidence in this selection. It looks a competitive field here tomorrow but it still is not as strong as the one Patriotic contested most recently in and which made me think that he's to be well handicapped now. He travelled as good as you would expect in rear of the field for a long time but that wasn't the position to be in this rather slowly ran race. When the paced kicked on 3f he faced a pretty tough task from his position and the fact that the first three home where all prominent ridden confirms this suspicion. Even the front-runner had enough in the tank to hang on for 3rd. Patriotic tried desperately to make some ground but had to turn wider than ideal and lost ground as a result. Yet he really found another gear inside the final furlong flying home and cutting back the deficit to miss out narrowly for the 3rd place. I rate this an excellent performance considering the circumstances and the fact that he's now 2lb below his last AW winning mark makes a big runner tomorrow. Even more so back over the 9f at Wolverhampton, which looks to be his optimum trip as he's 4 from 9 over course and distance. He's a good draw as well tomorrow and I think he's a way too big price.

[cpo]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread nice one mate, followed you with this one :ok

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread Thanks mate, was a bit concerned about the quite aggressive ride by Kirby but it paid of and that's all that matters. Just a pity about the big R4 deduction.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread 14.00 Lingfield: Close Together @ 5/2 Bet365 - 6pts win Thought this horse had a horrible run here at Lingfield lto but finished in a manner that suggests there is much more to come and that her opening mark is well below her true merit. Ten days ago in that Lingfield race she made her Handicap debut after being off the track since October after winning a maiden at this track. She travelled well enough until the eventual winner Precision Strike made a big move and kicked on from 3f out. In this crucial stage she was simply locked on the inside, with horses in front of her and no chance to get out there, until approaching the home straight when a gap opened. She looked a bit tricky to keep straight at that stage then, wandering slightly around, eventually responding well to the pressure and finishing strongly inside the final furlong. For now the 10f trip looks fine, I think with time she'll prove even better over a bit further though. But this is a very poor race here tomorrow and she'll take plenty of beating.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread Bit disappointed with Close Together, expected a much better performance I have to say. Still a horse not to give up on I feel though. 15.30 Lingfield: Push Me @ 9/2 Bet365 - 3pts win Looks a competitive race but Push Me is a better chance than 9/2 I think and should be probably favourite. Her performance in January here at Lingfield after a break of around 2½ month was a decent one but it was the most recent run that really caught my eye, when she had loads against herself a fortnight ago at Lingfield as well. She travelled well enough in rear, which wasn't the place to be in a slowly ran race though. While the winner had the run of the race she had loads to do turning for home. Once she found her balance in the home straight she really powered home and didn't even stop when her rider dropped the reigns for a moment 1f out. The way she finished this race suggests she's in excellent shape as well as due to win I feel as she's down to her last winning mark too. Talented Robert Tart takes the ride again and if he's aware of the pace and doesn't drop the reigns again his 7lb claim can be worth a lot tomorrow.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread 17.25 Wolverhampton: Attwaal @ 10/1 Bet365 - 2pts win Lightly raced Teofilo gelding who didn't set the world alight in his career so far but I rated his most recent performance at Lingfield a big one. He travelled very wide throughout the whole race and was not in the best position when the pace kicked on in a very slowly ran affair. The eventual winner had the run of the race from the front in contrast. Attwaal though had to turn widest of all for home and lost loads of ground as result of that and was relegated to last place approaching the home straight. He then stayed on really well on the outside in the closing stages, finishing in 5th place in the end what I'd rate a huge performance considering the circumstances. The drop in trip to 9f shouldn't be really a problem tomorrow though and as this will be only his third handicap start there might be still more to come and a mark of 65 could prove lenient. He also drops in class here, so all in all I feel he's overpriced.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread Another placed effort for my selection but that's not enough for me obviously and no excuses for Attwaal who had a clear run and every chance. He was early on outpaced already so to finished 3rd was okay in the end and a step up in trip might be the answer here... 14.50 Southwell: Corn Maiden @ 9/2 Paddy Power - 4pts win I'm happily ignoring all the runs of this maiden filly until her latest performance which came here at Southwell. It was her first start on fibresand and she really looked to be home on this surface. She travelled nicely in a prominent position, and while she didn't have an answer to the eventual winner she finished a fine 2nd, galloping all the way to the line and coming a long way clear of the rest of the field. That was her first serious performance in her 14 races long career so it is fair to assume that the change of surface might bring more improvement out of her. She should be capable of winning this race tomorrow at least as the bottom weight.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread Good to have a winner again after the last three selections did run well but not as well as expected. Corn Maiden won it well and in good style today at Southwell. Brings up the profit and I can happily say it all worked well in the last two month since creating this thread. Will provide a deeper look into everything when more data is available as two month is still a short enough period... Overall Stats: Staked: 115pts Returned: 197.32pts Profit/Loss: +82.32pts ROI: +71.58% Bets: 34 Wins: 9 S/R: 26.47%

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread No selection today and for tomorrow for the daily racing stuff but want to add two ante-post selections as they have been quite eye-catching in 2012: English 2.000 Guineas - 4th May of 2013 - Newmarket Racecourse The first classic of the season and the race looks all about Dawn Approach. He was the outstanding juvenile in 2012 and there isn't a reason why he can't be equally impressive this year. He stays in training with Jim Bolger what ensures he'll get the preparation he needs from people who know him inside out. Dawn Approach is unbeaten in six starts and I have been to the Curragh myself the day when he made his debut an won well a decent maiden. He looked big and strong already that day and the development he took since then is just phenomenal. He won three times on Group level, ending the season on a career high with victory in the Dewhurst Stakes. As he is by New Approach it looks fair to assume that he can be even better for a step up in trip to 1 mile. And as he beat everything quite comfortably last year I simply think he could prove too strong for all his rivals in the 2.000 Guineas at the beginning of the new season. Just remember the Dewhurst Stakes for example. He raced lazily for a long time through this race but showed everything when asked for an effort and drew easily clear of good opposition. Mind you the runners-up was a Group winner and the third won subsequently the Grade 1 Breeders Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita. And you can look through all his races. The form of them works out well. So what he achieved last year is more than rock solid. I have no doubts that he'll be primed for the 2.000 Guineas in May and I was surprised to see him available as a 7/2 chance with several bookmakers for this race. I expected him to be much shorter and there is no doubt that he'll be much shorter comes raceday anyway. So It's a good punt, definitely a value price for me and I'm on with 5pts. Even though I believe Dawn Approach is hard to beat in the Guineas, there is a second horse I do really like and feel it could go close in this race. It's the Aiden O'Brien trained colt Theatre. He's a huge price on the exchanges at the moment, and it's not sure if he even will contest in the race but I do feel he could be Ballydoyle's best chance there. First of all he was visually very impressive winning a 7f maiden at Leopardstown at the second time of asking. It worth to watch this race back, you can do this on the At The Races website for free. It wasn't the strongest of maidens, but the way he finished the race was hugely impressive, kicking easily away from 2f out, producing a stunning turn of foot, leaving the rest of the field flat to boards behind. That looked classy and gave the impression that he's a serious talent. Theatre is also quite interesting from a pedigree point of view. He's beautifully bred, as you would expect for a Ballydoyle horse. Sired by Galileo and out of the multiple Group winning mare Rumplestiltskin who won the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes over 7f and the Group 1 Prix Marcel Boussac over 1m. So the trip shouldn't be a problem even though he should really relish the further furlong. That fact and the fact that he's very lightly raced makes him a very interesting runner. He's a 54/1 chance on Betfair, and while it might happen that he's not going to run on Guineas day it is worth to find out with 1pt as if he does run this price would look massive. --------------------------- Dawn Approach @ 7/2 Bet365 - 5 pts win Theatre @ 54/1 Betfair - 1pt win

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread 16.50 Lingfield: My Son Max @ 11/2 VC - 3pts win He was desperately unlucky in his most recent start, here at Lingfield in early December. He travelled well enough and looked in with a big shout turning for home but found himself then short of room 1f out and had to suffer behind a bunch of horses. Finally in the clear in the last hundred yards he finished strongly in third. He probably would have won the race with a clear run. The handicapper left his mark unchanged and that should ensure that My Son Max will be really competitive in this race here tomorrow I feel. He has to overcome a wide draw and 5f might be sharper than ideal probably, yet I think he is overpriced.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread Always like a wee read at your posts fella, you have some good points that i find worth reading.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread Thanks Jimmy mate, much appreciated. :ok Very annoyed after seeing my selection My Son Max finishing 4th without getting any run whatsoever. Almost same story like last time, very unlucky. He would have won with a clear run, pretty sure to me. No chance on the inside rail to go through though, even then when switched to the right there wasn't a way through again. Mad stuff. Wouldn't blame Franny Norton though. That's racing, can happen, horse was in the right position and if the gap doesn't close on the inside 1f out he wins hands and heels.

[egg]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread I blame Norton, no need to get the horse in that position from a wide draw. should have know that he'd need a charmed run to get up the rail, he had choice of where to put the horse form perfect sit as he had no one round him 3f out. Waited 70 odd days for that one to run and it also knocked me out of lucky15. Kent.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread

Thanks Jimmy mate, much appreciated. :ok Very annoyed after seeing my selection My Son Max finishing 4th without getting any run whatsoever. Almost same story like last time, very unlucky. He would have won with a clear run, pretty sure to me. No chance on the inside rail to go through though, even then when switched to the right there wasn't a way through again. Mad stuff. Wouldn't blame Franny Norton though. That's racing, can happen, horse was in the right position and if the gap doesn't close on the inside 1f out he wins hands and heels.

Yeh man spot on, just the way it goes.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread

I blame Norton' date=' no need to get the horse in that position from a wide draw. should have know that he'd need a charmed run to get up the rail, he had choice of where to put the horse form perfect sit as he had no one round him 3f out. Waited 70 odd days for that one to run and it also knocked me out of lucky15. Kent.[/quote'] Think the horse just needed plenty cover fella, yipp its a shame, but these things happen, it was painful to watch but its done now.