Creating Your Own Ratings

[BillyHills]

As promised I am going to do a little tutorial on how I make my own handicap and create a rating for each horse, it may help some people who fancy giving this a try and cant find a starting point or create a discussion on how others approach this interesting subject. I must say from the very start that each person will have their own way of doing things and this is not a definitive approach to anything that is mentioned. Not written a tutorial before so I apologise in advance if its not very clear. Why Create Ratings; It takes a fair amount of time to produce and update your ratings each week, free time that many find precious and could be doing something else, so why bother if at the end of the day there is no guarantee the results will be any more successful than just following the guys in the papers, after all they get paid to produce them so they must be good, right? I have had this argument many times and I cant stand here and preach the gospel about how good it is to create a set of ratings, all I know is that I enjoy learning as much as possible about this wonderful sport and the horses that we place our hard earned cash on each day, at this stage its important to stress that there are certain types of people that bet on horses and not all of them know much about the actual participants and would sooner just back the favourite or follow a tipster, that’s absolutely fine in my eyes and some of them will make as much money as anyone else. Those same people will slag the jockey off when they lose, blame their losses on bad luck etc. Been there and done that over the 35 years I have had this addictive hobby and I am not trying to teach people to suck eggs either but eventually I wanted to get more involved in making my own decisions and more importantly I wanted to know why I lost? What went wrong? How can I avoid this next time? My answer was to be able to get a better grip on the sport as a whole, try and understand the handicapping system and for me a big step was to understand the class system too. Creating my own ratings by its very nature forces me to look at everything in that particular sphere, I tend to concentrate on Novices and Juveniles, its too much for me to rate everything but that doesn’t mean to say I haven’t done in the past and I still watch all of the races over the jumps so I’m happy with the way things are for now. By focussing on a specific section and having the time to do it properly has brought the enjoyment back and I don’t find it a chore at all, I think we have all looked at the racecards in the morning and thought “where do is start”, so much racing nowadays and not a lot of it is a very high standard. By only doing a specific type of race it immediately cuts down the workload and clears a lot of negative thoughts about the days racing and makes you concentrate on what you have learnt to do best, you are actually excited about sorting ‘your’ races out and making a valid judgement on its outcome. Win or lose you know you have gave it 100% and hopefully as I said earlier, if it doesn’t produce a winner you will probably know why, whether that be the ground, the trip or just another horse improving. I would advise this to anyone whether they do ratings or not by the way. So for me compiling a database of ratings ticks a lot of boxes, I get to know the form really well in a specialist area, it concentrates the mind by cutting down the amount of racing and I enjoy the task of trying to understand how one horse that wins at Plumpton is different to one that wins at Wincanton, and which one would you be on if they met next time out?

[BillyHills]

Re: Creating Your Own Ratings Where Do You Start? The biggest single question that is asked when talking about ratings is “where do I start”. Many people have said they would love to give it a go an try and form their own handicap but just don’t know how to go about it. Now I’ll make it clear from the off that I do not use speed figures in anything I do over jumps, its just too volatile on a day to day basis, they miss fences out, move rails, give false ground and so on and so on, it’s a waste of time for me personally and the only code I would even consider it would be on the AW and I know many people do it successfully and hats off to them, as I said we all do things our own way, speed is not my bag. The whole concept of ratings to me is try and evaluate the worth of any particular race, the first thing to do is draw up a set of rules for the different class of a race, some actually do this by looking at the value of a race; it makes sense to think at £5,000 race is better than a £3,000 race, that’s ok in theory but if you are rating the top handicaps this can be misleading as the Bookmakers add prize money to the big Saturday handicaps and also some small courses actually put in added money from sponsors to attract better fields, courses like Fakenham for example will have novice hurdles worth as much as Newbury at times, so you just have to be careful when doing it this way. For me the BHA Grading of races is as reliable as anything I have found as a starting point, for those that don’t know they work on a scale that starts from the bottom going from Class 6 to Graded races and horses are only allowed to enter handicaps according to their BHA rating, it roughly works on the following figures; Grade 1,2 and 3 = 155+ Listed/Class 1 = 145-155 Class 2= Horses rated 135-150 Class 3= Horses rated 120-135 Class 4= Horses rated 100-120 Class 5= Horses rated 85-100 Class 6 = NH Flat races and Hunter Chases Now you could just use the figures above and get cracking but you would probably end up with the same figures as everybody else, my idea of doing ratings is to try and get an edge that others have not. I split my figures into three categories depending on which course they run at, I think this sorts out the problem like I mentioned before where two horses could win a Class 4 race at different places and how do you tell the difference? It often follows that a race at Cheltenham will be stronger in depth than one at Stratford for example so I sort them into three groups, just my preference really over the years of doing these things, others may think different? Group 1: Cheltenham, Ascot, Newbury, Sandown, Kempton, Aintree Group 2: Haydock, Wetherby, Wincanton, Huntingdon, Warwick, Ayr, Doncaster Group 3: All the rest. Using the figures above you will see that a Class 4 race spans anything from 100-120, I would use this scale depending on which course the race was run at, so Cheltenham would be closer to 120 and Leicester closer to 100 etc. A third filter is the prize money, especially when doing my Novice Hurdles, an average prize for a Class 4 hurdle is about £2,500, if a race is worth more than that I would add an amount to the race score and if it was lower than that it would be reduced. Obviously just watch out for added sponsor money that may be out of line. So we are now ready to finalise the method of reaching a score for any particular race, that’s the hard bit done, the Grade of race, the track and the value will give us a pretty good place to start from. Its up to you what actual figures you use in place of the ones above, I don’t go so high as I don’t rate anything that is beaten out of site, without giving secrets away lets assume the following for this tutorial; For Novice Hurdles; Class 5= 60-70 Class 4= 70-80 Class 3= 80-85 Class 2= 85-90 Class 1= 90-95 Graded = 95-105 I leave a bigger gap for C4 novice races than the others as the majority are in this bracket and I need more leeway but 40pts from top to bottom for a base figure suits me. Handicap races would be different as Grade 1 horse is more than 30lbs better than a Class 4 handicapper in my book. Working on these figures it means a Class 4 race at Exeter worth about £2,500 rates to a figure of 72. Exeter is a Cat 3 course, and the prize money is average for the Grade. Sounds complicated but once you make a grid with all the scores on it it’s very quick to use. After using this figure for the winner we have to adjust the rating for the weight carried, I use 11st as a basic mark and deduct a point for every pound carried below 11st and add one for every pound higher. In this example if the winner carried 10st 12lbs it would end up with a rating of 70. Once this is done you then calculate the rest of the field. When the whole race is calculated it is then you can make manual adjustments if required. Manual Adjustments This is the bit where I think, rightly or wrongly that my ratings differ from the norm. You could just use bare ratings but what if the winner won comfortably and could have won by a lot further than he did? What if a horse fell at the last and would have earned a rating instead of a big fat zero? What if a horse in third was eased for the last furlong as he was in no danger of losing his place? This is why it is so important to watch the races closely, you can make little alterations to the horses individual ratings on what you feel would have been the correct distances. I don’t analyse every place to the nth degree but just what takes my eye in any race. (Its important to rate the race on facts first and only then make any adjustments as if you give the winner 3 extra points at the start it will increase all of the others by the same mark.)

[BillyHills]

Re: Creating Your Own Ratings How To Calculate The Field Over the years I have used just about every method to calculate the ratings for all of the horses in a race, its easy to get the winners figure but what about the others who carry different weights and adjusting the ratings for the distance beaten? Years ago before the wonderful internet I did it by hand, I used to but the paper ‘The Handicap Book’ each week and they had a pull out section of all the previous weeks results, think it’s still around now under a different name, is it Raceform update? Anyway it took me ages to do and I used to write the individual ratings down in a notebook. These days there are other more accurate ways of doing it and not all of them cost anything, the ones that do are pretty good and have tried most of them; Raceform Interactive: Very good piece of software that you install years of form on your computer and download the rest day by day as you use it, it does have the facility to enable you to do your own ratings, you just pull up a race and rate the winner, press a button and it does the rest, you can edit the ratings too for manual adjustments. It works out about a pound a day if you buy a 6 month subscription (£188). I stopped using it as I just didn’t have the time to use any of its other features but would recommend it thoroughly if you have the money and the time to use it. Horse Race Base: Free trial still on the PL, this is a different animal all together and no good if you want to adjust any ratings and store them, you fill out some parameters and the on line software calculates ratings for each days racing, its about £10 per month after the trial. Does have a system builder, as does Raceform but not for me if you want to do ratings. The Computer Formbook: Very similar to Raceform and the first PC based method I used, its £49 for a months trial but over £525 for the Jumps annual edition. Decent people who run it and very helpful but a tad expensive. Racing Post: This is partly what I use at the moment, you can sign up for free and not pay the members subscription and still use the ‘Rate Race’ feature, problem is it will not store the ratings in its database unless you pay up, its not that much and probably worth it to be honest but I just transfer the ratings to my excel sheet instead and then I can do what I want with the figures and I am a bit sceptical about relying on the net for everything, what would I do if the RP site was down one day?? At least this way I have my ratings at home and can sort them into lists etc. Tools Ok so for this example we will be using the Racing Post website as everyone can access that for freemans. First we go to the results section and find a race to rate, I have all the Novice/Juvenile hurdles since the summer rated, I started a couple of months behind and it did take me ages to catch up, you could actually do the catching up if and when you need a rating from a particular race if you are short on free time but then again creating ratings is not for anyone short on time! You need to be logged in to your account to be able to rate a race, go to the result of any race and you will see a ‘rate race’ tab above the winning horse. You select that and another screen will open up with blank boxes. For jump races we use 1lb per length, I think raceform use 1.25lb per length on three mile races? Anyway I use 1lb per length on everything over two miles. We input the winners rating by checking our grid, and set that as the master rating, press calculate and hey presto the rest of the race is calculated in a nano second. Example race result; Rate Race box, In this example i gave the third horse a point as it was slightly hampered and the horse that fell at the last a rating as it would have gone close to winning. Arte Del Calcio was going ok when falling but was too far out to be sure of the finishing result so no rating was pit in.

[The Saint]

Very admirable and very generous thing to post BH. Unfortunatly, for me, given that if involves the sticks it may as well be written in Swahili!! ;) I jest - fantastic posts m8 - hats off to u. Hope it gets the interest it deserves.

[BillyHills]

Re: Creating Your Own Ratings I then quickly go through the race making any important adjustments, do not press calculate again as it will alter all of the runners marks. A couple of important points here, I always rate the winner to the actual weight carried, so if a horse should have carried 11st and it had a 5lbs claimer on top I would rate him to have carried 10st 9lbs, as long as you do the same thing with every race it doesn’t matter too much, some take no notice of jockeys allowances. The other thing that is vital is that you should knock off 7lbs when rating Mares races as these will carry 7lbs less when meeting the boys in later races and if you don’t will always appear well in. It doesn’t matter in mixed races as the RP rating machine just calculates the weight carried and a Mare will get a lower rating anyway. Now if you are a full member you can click the horses name and store the ratings in the ‘My Notes’ section, useful if you want your ratings to appear on future racecards and the form section, you have to set your preferences to show your rating instead of the Racing Post Ratings. This saves time when rating a race before its run to see which one is top rated, the draw back is that you can only store one rating, I assume everyone uses the best rating the horse has achieved, this is one reason I use my spreadsheet so I can see all of the ratings side by side. So we have rated a full race and now I transfer the ratings for every horse that is beaten less than 50 lengths, I don’t bother with those rated below 30, if truth be told I could get away with not rating anything below 40. I use Excel and have a simple spreadsheet that I modified, it was created for a school to record test marks, and its useful as it has a search facility which comes in handy when you have hundreds of rows of horses. I sort them into alphabetical order to make things easy. The first column always records the best rating achieved and a class figure, I have set the sheet to work out the horses grade by using the same figures on my grid, it gives me a quick overview on what the horse is capable of to date. Not that important but the sheet had that facility so put it into action. So that’s that, once the race is done I go on to the next one etc. When it comes to rating a race before its run with regard to having a bet I just note down the horses on a piece of paper and put how many pounds they are receiving from the top weight and add that on to the rating from the database, once I have the race covered I will then look at the other important things like ground, trip and course and make my final decision, if any. I suppose some will back their top rated horses blind but I don’t think you can make it pay doing that and even Timeform recommend backing the top two in their ratings. I do use the best rating a horse has achieved but also notice if the horse is in decline or on the upgrade when doing this, also one rating may stick out like a sore thumb, either too high or too low, I may go back and re-rate a race in this case it just depends on the circumstances. It’s often when a race is very slowly run and they finish in a heap although I’d like to think I picked up on that at the time of rating a race. My spreadsheet; Its like anything else you get out what you put in and that’s very true with horse racing I find, if you rate races without seeing them then you will miss the little extra piece of information that you may need, its not hard these days with video form widely available and very accurate information within easy reach. It doesn’t cost me a penny to create my handicap either but it does need a certain amount of dedication. Like I said at the start, what’s the point to all this? Why bother doing ratings? Well if your still reading this you will have started to understand a little bit about my passion and the need to be informed before I try to make a judgement on a race and I like to think I have that edge in certain aspects of the game that everyone talks about. For me its more than just following Nicholls or Henderson on a Saturday or following a tipster at half the price, its much more!

[BillyHills]

Re: Creating Your Own Ratings This is the type of grid i use to work out the base ratings quickly, this one for handicaps and the weights are adjusted to 12st. Just saves the brain!

[BillyHills]

Re: Creating Your Own Ratings

Very admirable and very generous thing to post BH. Unfortunatly, for me, given that if involves the sticks it may as well be written in Swahili!! ;) I jest - fantastic posts m8 - hats off to u. Hope it gets the interest it deserves.

Cheers Saint, not everyones cup of tea i know, but it may help or put off someone for good:lol

[The Saint]

Cheers Saint' date=' not everyones cup of tea i know, but it may help or put off someone for good:lol[/quote'] And I quote.... 'As promised, I am going to do a 'little' tutorial....!!!!! ;) I'll have a proper read through in the morning and see if I have anything to discuss!! Don't want to make a half arsed reply trying to recall posts as on phone :(

[cpo]

Re: Creating Your Own Ratings Thanks for posting this BH. I tried doing my own ratings last year but didn't get very far with it. I am going to try again once I have time. I haven't read through this all yet but I am sure once I do, I will be able to compile my own ratings finally!! :notworthy

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Creating Your Own Ratings Top stuff BH!

[NeilM]

This is the type of grid i use to work out the base ratings quickly, this one for handicaps and the weights are adjusted to 12st. Just saves the brain!

Slightly puzzled, you say above (am on my phone so can't scroll up to check) that you assume 11st as a standard weight and give or take depending on that but here you use 12 as 0/standard/base. Have I misunderstood? Excellent thread- really interesting. I've rated horses in my head for ages and occasionally rated races for a notebook horse for, say, it's next three times out but not systematically and I don't think I've considered the prize money so this adds another variable. As I'm off work at the moment I shall follow your approach and can hopefully tweak it for my own preferred race types :)

[fintron]

Re: Creating Your Own Ratings Great stuff BH, thanks for posting. I do think there is mileage in compiling ratings like this, if, like you say BH, you have the time to dedicate to it. You say you focus on the juvenile and novice stuff BH, if you were rating a handicap, would you still use some sort of framework, or would go go purely in terms of 1lb and lengths (1lb/length for jumps?). So for example, if Ballabriggs won a class 2 handicap at Kelso off 150 by 10 lengths, would you rate it 160, or would you make further adjustment for the class of the race/quality of the track etc? I currently do my own set of ratings on the all-weather and look at handicap races only. I do adjust for class you see, so a horse that wins a class 4 off 75 would be rated higher than a horse that won a class 5 off 75 at the same track.

[NeilM]

Do you apply different values to Southwell and the polytracks, Fintron? I find it hard to transfer the form quite a lot of the time and have considered doing non-fibresand only this winter because of the flooding issue at Southwell- I think the lack of racing there will confuse things a lot.

[fintron]

Re: Creating Your Own Ratings

Do you apply different values to Southwell and the polytracks' date=' Fintron? I find it hard to transfer the form quite a lot of the time and have considered doing non-fibresand only this winter because of the flooding issue at Southwell- I think the lack of racing there will confuse things a lot.[/quote'] Hi Neil, I just work out my ratings as normal but put an asterisk next to any ratings that were not produced on the surface in question. So the Southwell mob are sort of a niche and considered in isolation. Sometimes If a horse has won of, say 75 on polytrack and runs off 75 on fibresand, but has shown some ability to handle it in the past, then I will still consider them. The same with polytrack really, I'd treat any turf ratings with caution until the horse has run well on polytrack (not necessairly winning but beaten by a couple of lengths or so) before as well. One question that needs considering is, what is the cut off point for analysis? If a horse won off 95 three years ago and is down to 75 now, should we even consider that run? Should we look at only the last twelve months, or should we look only at the last run, which gives the best indication of a horses well being?

[BillyHills]

Re: Creating Your Own Ratings

Slightly puzzled, you say above (am on my phone so can't scroll up to check) that you assume 11st as a standard weight and give or take depending on that but here you use 12 as 0/standard/base. Have I misunderstood? Excellent thread- really interesting. I've rated horses in my head for ages and occasionally rated races for a notebook horse for, say, it's next three times out but not systematically and I don't think I've considered the prize money so this adds another variable. As I'm off work at the moment I shall follow your approach and can hopefully tweak it for my own preferred race types :)

Hi Neil, the example i posted was one i used for handicaps only, when i'm doing novice races i just make it up to 11st, doesnt matter really as i am not crossing form lines at all, the reason is most novices carry 10st 12lbs or thereabouts where obviously handicappers need the full range of the weight scale, my fault, bad example but the only one i had a screenshot of. Interesting about the length of time a rating can stand for, i remember years ago when i followed spotform in the Mirror and always wondered how a certain horse was top rated only to find it had been quite useful at one time in its life. Its the same when horses come back from a year off or more, it often appears as the top rated horse but this is only because the handicapper has dropped it a few pounds because of his absence, in all likelihood he will need the run anyway. I personally only use runs in the last 365 days and if they have had a dozen races will only take into account the last half dozen if a horse seems to be on a decline, i know they can come back to form but often are frustrating types and must have showed me something recently to consider them. Thanks for the positive comments:ok

[Aidymac]

Re: Creating Your Own Ratings Unreal. Wouldn't know where to begin. Not for me. :loon Looks too complex for Aidy. :lol

[staffy]

Re: Creating Your Own Ratings Love this type of work. I would love to be able to do something like this but I guess time is always a problem and having a good knowledge of the sport would help. I have often looked at races thinking I am going to try and work this out but just fall flat on my ass. good work BH.

[mowgli77]

Re: Creating Your Own Ratings I intend on having a proper read of this at the weekend, some of it looks straightforward and some of it looks a nightmare. If I can get my head round it I might rate something like 3m chasers only or something like that but then what if a 2m4f chaser goes up in distance, how do I factor that in for 3m races?

[NeilM]

Perhaps allocate extra points if it was running on at the lower distance which aren't necessarily lbs/weight related? Sort of an 'out of ten chance of winning over an extra distance' measurement.

[Trotter]

Re: Creating Your Own Ratings

I intend on having a proper read of this at the weekend' date=' some of it looks straightforward and some of it looks a nightmare. If I can get my head round it I might rate something like 3m chasers only or something like that but then what if a 2m4f chaser goes up in distance, how do I factor that in for 3m races?[/quote'] That's not a problem with BH's method because he's measuring 'level of form' You'd just rate the 20F races that your horse had run in and give him a form rating As to wether he'll stay the extra distance you do the same as you do now...........look at breeding, siblings, run style etc

[BillyHills]

Re: Creating Your Own Ratings

I intend on having a proper read of this at the weekend' date=' some of it looks straightforward and some of it looks a nightmare. If I can get my head round it I might rate something like 3m chasers only or something like that but then what if a 2m4f chaser goes up in distance, how do I factor that in for 3m races?[/quote'] Phil that is exactly what i was on about in the other thread when i said you have to keep an eye on everything so you can equate the form. At the end of the day if its a handicap the ratings will work over any trip, its the mark you are rating dont forget, its sometimes hard to get your head around but we are rating a past performance in whatever type of race. If its earned a rating of say 140 over 2m4f then it will run off that rating next time whether its a 2m race or a 3m race. When you are looking at its next race its then that you can decide whether or not its worth the same rating over the new trip. If you have a database of just 3m chasers and all of a sudden a horse steps up in trip and you havnt got a rating for it, the best thing to do is have a look at its recent form, probably the last 3 races, choose its best run and quickly rate that race and see what figure it achieved, it will give you a guide as to how well its handicapped, you then can make the decision on whether the step up in trip is going to suit or not. Obviously once it has ran you will have a firm figure for it for next time. Ratings are always fluid i find, its difficult sometimes to find that perfect race where all of the horses are exposed and easy to read, they do happen and these are the best opportunities to take advantage of. As you know improving progressive types are a nightmare to work out sometimes whether its on the flat or over jumps and ratings alone are not enough. Thats the big problem with Novices, theres always something making their debuts which you cant rate, either a bumper horse or an ex French recruit. When this happens i look for the EW value in the race if there is any so it takes away the problem, always knowing that you are continuing to build up the database for next time.

[BillyHills]

Re: Creating Your Own Ratings

So for example, if Ballabriggs won a class 2 handicap at Kelso off 150 by 10 lengths, would you rate it 160, or would you make further adjustment for the class of the race/quality of the track etc?

Fin, didnt see this earlier sorry mate; I do handicaps in a slightly different way, a bit more complicated but easy once you get used to it, i'll try and explain. Using the grid above in the earlier post, lets say i was rating a handicap hurdle Class 4 (0-115) race at Leicester. As you can see the Class 4 race for a Cat 3 course in my eyes is worth 100 points maximum if carrying 12st. Carrying anything less than 12st would mean we deduct a point for each pound below 12st. Lets say the winner carried 11st 5lbs. This means the base score for that race would be 91 on my handicap, (dont get mixed up with the proper handicap marks, my ratings have nothing to do with the BHA ratings, the figures in the grid are what i have worked out to suit me.) Now the clever bit, as you know just because its a 0-115 handicap it doesnt always mean horses of that quality actually run in the race, the top weight could be running off a mark of 112 for example, just depends who's entered the race. So in my eyes you can have a good quality 0-115 race where the top weight is actually running off 115 or you can have a below standard 0-115 race if the top one is only running off 109 for example. (Graded races are more difficult as they dont have a ceiling as such so its more down to experience and knowing if its a good quality race or not.) *There is a race tomorrow at Hereford (3.10) its a 0-100 race but the top weight has an OR of 92, perfect example of a slightly below par race for its class so i would downgrade it by 8 pounds. So what i do is deduct any points from the race score when the top weight fails to live up to race grade, so if the top weight's OR is 112 i would deduct 3pts from the winners score, so in our example it would drop from 91 to 88, its only then that i would calculate the rest of the field. I find that this is much more accurate as some races can be very soft and you can have a false rating. Eg; Class 4 (Cat 3) (0-115) = 100 Winner carried 11st 5lb (12st minus 11st 5lb = -9) 100-9 = 91 Top Weight OR 112 (115-112=-3) Winners Score = 91-3 = 88 Calculate rest of field from 88. Sounds long winded but its really not when get going. * My grid is not the bible by any means, it has been tweaked many times over the years and i urge people to use their own scale, my ratings are heavily biassed towards class more than anything else and the courses grades are of my own choice, in reality there are 4 types of grade for the tracks but i reduced it to three.

[mowgli77]

Re: Creating Your Own Ratings I've just tried to do this and got lost somewhere along the way. I have put up Overquest as BBOTD tomorrow. How would you rate this horse is you were going on the last race it ran in, how would you rate that race? I logged in RP site, clicked rate race but it's already rated for you the way they've done it. How do you apply your own figures etc. I was trying to look at your class 4 race/grade 2 course and it shows a 110 figure but that race was a 0-120 handicap. I ended up with a rating of 100 for the winner and 107 for the 2nd. Have I completely cocked that up?

[BillyHills]

Re: Creating Your Own Ratings I would make Overquest 90 in its last race. It was 0-120 Class 4 race at a Cat 2 track =110 top weight was 116 so downgrade score by 4 = 106 Overquest carried 10st 12lbs so take off 16 (the difference from 12st to 10st 12lbs) The rate the others accordingly. Not sure what you mean about the rate race page already being filled in? The boxes are always empty when i go to it?

[Kryten]

Re: Creating Your Own Ratings Hi BH, I have to say a big thank you for your post, it has given me a great starting point. I have completed a couple of ratings using your figures and method, the first being for a handicap yesterday: Wincanton -06 Dec 2012 - 1:40 Racing Welfare Racehorse Owners "National Hunt" Novices' Handicap Hurdle. I think this was fairly straight forward and I got the following rating results: [TABLE=width: 187]

[TR] [TD]Call Me Sir[/TD] [TD]88[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Be All Man[/TD] [TD]95[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Typhon De Guye[/TD] [TD]73[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Head Spin[/TD] [TD]65[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Generalise[/TD] [TD]34[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Basil Fawlty[/TD] [TD]52[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Washed Out[/TD] [TD]19 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Does that look about right? However, the next one I looked at was from the day before - Catterick 05 Dec 2012 12:50 Bhest Racing To School Juvenile Hurdle As this was a non handicap I tried to work out to 11st. However, the top weight in the race, Right To Rule, carried 11st 5lb with OR of 116. So, does this mean that the following would be correct or not? Race was a Class 4 Category 3 = 100 Top weight OR = 116 so 116-100 = 16 Winners carried 10st 12lb so adjusting to 11st = -2 so initial score = 98 Winners final score = 98 + 16 = 114 Thanks for the help.

[Kryten]

Re: Creating Your Own Ratings Hi BH, Me again - sorry for the double posting earlier, I thought my first post hadn't gone in so I did it again - Doh! Anyway, I have been busily rating races for the last couple of hours or so and I definitely seem to be missing something. I am unsure about non handicaps. They don't of course have an official rating for the race for starters, such as 0-115 for example, so I started setting them to 100 as a base reference. However, this seems to be throwing out some wildly innacurate results. For example, I was looking at todays 12.30 at Exeter and I came up with a rating of 125 for Uimhir A Seacht, which seems way off, especially as he ended up being beaten 8 lengths into 5th place by Home Run, who I only had rated at 62. I know ratings are only there for guidance, but this seems to be massivly out here. So, I would be very grateful if you have the time and would mind either, explaining where I'm going wrong here please, or else post an example of a non handicap race - or better still both. Cheers.

[Kryten]

Re: Creating Your Own Ratings Hi BH, Me yet again - just to clarify, in my 1st post above there should have been a screen grab of the rated race but it didn't show up. Hence, where I state "I have just done a test rating using a race from yesterdays results and come up with the following:" there is no "following" and it looks a bit on the confusing side so please ignore that bit and just go from the bit about me being "a bit thick" which evidently, I am!

[BillyHills]

Re: Creating Your Own Ratings Hi mate, will reply properly later but you cant work out non handicaps off the grid, its not for that. The novice races i work out are from the first 3 or 4 posts in this thread, it doesnt matter what OR they have in novice races, it means nothing as they havnt been given weights that relate to their OR marks. I must just say my grid is only what i have come up with over the years, i bias it on class many others will have different ways of doing it and have filters for other things added in, like ground, CD winners, Jockeys etc....I dont do handicaps anymore and the grid and example on handicaps was posted just to give people an idea on how to get started.

[Kryten]

Re: Creating Your Own Ratings Hi BH, I have been working on a rating method based around using your kindly contributed info as my staring point and I have to say that I have had some success. However, most of my selections so far have come out as pretty short priced favourites so, today I have made some adjustments and I have posted my selections for the day below. I haven't included my first race as it had run before I had time to make this post but it was Mossgo and he came last - not a good omen for the rest of the day but here we go and let's see what happens: [TABLE=width: 349]

[TR] [TD] 12.15 Lingfield (6 runners) [/TD] [TD] Beauty Pageant (IRE) [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] 12.45 Lingfield (4 runners) [/TD] [TD] Quality Mark (USA) [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] 12.55 Kempton (5 runners) [/TD] [TD] Simonsig [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] 1.05 Limerick (6 runners) [/TD] [TD] Clonbanan Lad (IRE) [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] 1.10 Wetherby (6 runners) [/TD] [TD] Detour Ahead [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] 1.25 Leopardstown (7 runners) [/TD] [TD] Edgardo Sol (FR) [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] 2.40 Kempton (5 runners) [/TD] [TD] Kumbeshwar [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] 4.30 Wolverhampton (6 runners) [/TD] [TD] Lady Malet [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] 6.30 Wolverhampton (6 runners) [/TD] [TD] Hardy Red (IRE) [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Kryten]

Re: Creating Your Own Ratings Hmmm...not exactly a great start!