Serie A > 30th Nov - 2nd Dec

[Aidymac]

[TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617] [TR=class: row1] [/TR] [TR] [TH=class: firstColumn] Friday 30 November 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [TH] [/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Catania v AC Milan (19:45 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.75[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.84[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.88 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings, align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Saturday 1 December 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [TH] [/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Juventus v Torino (19:45 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.42[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.85[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]8.7[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.54 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings, align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Sunday 2 December 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [TH] [/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Napoli v Pescara (11:30 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]7.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]12[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]98.77 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings, align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Bologna v Atalanta (14:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.2[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.2[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.50 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings, align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Genoa v Chievo (14:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.2[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.25[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.85[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.20 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings, align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Internazionale v Palermo (14:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]7.5[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.22 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings, align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Lazio v Parma (14:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.8[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.9[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]5.7[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]98.74 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings, align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Siena v AS Roma (14:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.6[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.95[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.2[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]98.55 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings, align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Udinese v Cagliari (14:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.95[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.7[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.07 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings, align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Fiorentina v Sampdoria (19:45 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.54[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.2[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]7.5[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.08 % [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Mindfulness]

Re: Serie A > 30th Nov - 2nd Dec After a couple of dry weeks I see this card having a bit more potential in terms of AH plays, here are my early thoughts: Bologna V Atalanta A very lethargic 1^st half performance from Atalanta in their last match allowed Genoa to take a somewhat fortunate one goal lead which could not be recovered. The 2^nd half performance from the Bergamo side was much improved but a breakthrough could not be made with Genoa keeper Frey making 2 key saves late on. Goals can sometimes be an issue for Atalanta and they would have surely missed CM Luca Cigarini for the Genoa game who is an important creative cog in the Bergamo machine. Bologna on the other hand are a very unimpressive outfit this season imo. Granted 72.7% of their total points haul has come at home but that equates to just 2 wins and 2 draws (2 defeats). The victories were against notoriously poor travelers in Catania and Palermo, Atalanta should be a lot more robust. I favor Atalanta to avoid a 3^rd league defeat on the spin here and pick up somekind of positive result. My main question would be, does Cigarini return from suspension here? I believe he’s in the cup squad to face Cesena tonight. Atalanta +0.25 @ 9/10 is on my shortlist for now, not the most incredible margin in the world but a play that is worthy of consideration I feel. Genoa V Chievo After an appalling start to his tenure at Genoa, coach Luigi Delneri got his first win (after 5 defeats on the bounce) at Atalanta last weekend. If nothing else this will be a timely confidence booster with the fixture list looking brighter over the next 2-3 weeks starting with this home tie with Chievo. What can you say about Chievo on the road: W0 D0 L6 F3 A16, diabolical. The biggest problem I have here is there will be a significant amount of pressure on Genoa to claim only their second home league win of the season in this game. The two sides sit 16^th and 17^th in the table respectively and this can only be viewed as a relegation 6 pointer. Indications suggest the home side have the momentum and so Genoa -0.25 @ 9/10 is shortlisted for the time being. When it comes to the end of the 2012-2013 campaign I see Cheivo in Serie B while Genoa maintain their top flight status, this game could be an important episode in the subsequent narrative. Udinese V Cagliari Udinese have been fairly hard to beat this year but they also struggle to convert draws into wins. They currently have 3 league victories to their name with maximum points gained against Milan, Pescara and Roma - all sides with shoddy defenses at the time. The over-reliance on CF Di Natale is problematic with the man being the wrong side of 35. A consistent and effective striker partner is yet to be found, for me Guidolin’s team lacks teeth. Cagliari, just one place below Udinese in the table are a very solid outfit with no real disparity between home and away results. They head into this match off the back of a 0-1 home defeat to Napoli. I believe key CB Davide Astori was out for that game, don’t know whether he was injured or suspended, will he return for the Udinese game? key figure. Because of Udinese’s tepid attack and Cagliari’s strong defense I am leaning towards Cagliari +0.50 @ 9/10 for now. Fiorentina V Sampdoria The Sunday night game has in my view the biggest price of the lot with Sampdoria at 7/1 which I feel does not reflect the overall quality gap between the two sides here. First of all I can understand the valuation, there is clear logic in it. Fiorentina have been simply immense at home this season: W6 D1 L0 F15 A3, this even beats Juventus. Sampdoria with a full strength defence and median are both combative and difficult to break down. Unfortunately ‘test games’ do not bode well with the likes of Cagliari and Atalanta both getting thumped 4-1 at the Artemio Franchi. If these defensively solid outfits were dispatched so easily then what hope does Sampdoria have? I would say Ferrara’s men have a bit of momentum now, the vital derby victory over Genoa followed by the win over Bologna will boost psychology. Sampdoria’s appalling recent run coincided with a nasty injury crisis but we see the likes of Poli, Maresca and Obiang returning to roughly correlate with an upturn in fortunes. The absence of Eder, Maxi Lopez and Pozzi is still problematic and team news will be important for the Fiorentina match. I just get a sneaking suspicion that Samp will be able to nick a positive result here so Sampdoria +1 @ 21/20 makes the shortlist. It’s early days yet, I’m sure there will be developments as the week progresses, team news important as ever. There are some Coppa Italia games this week which may add some more variables into the mix. If Dylan and Ultravires can tear themselves away from Berlusconi’s Bunga Bunga parties for 5 minutes and get back to some solid graft that would be great.

[assange58]

Re: Serie A > 30th Nov - 2nd Dec

Genoa V Chievo What can you say about Chievo on the road: W0 D0 L6 F3 A16, diabolical.

At first glance I like your ideas here, Das Phantom, but looking closer at Chievo's away opponents, I become less convinced. Chievo have played away to #8 Catania, #10 AC Milan, #2 Napoli, #15 Palermo, #1 Juve, and #7 Parma. While I'm not saying that Chievo is better than their record indicates, those are surely some tough opponents! Couple that with the fact that you would be relying upon a poor Genoa side with 1 home win to pull out a victory. Again, I think there may be a bet here, but I don't think Genoa yet warrants having any confidence in their ability to win (and not draw) even against Chievo. Just some thoughts, although I fully admit my views should be taken with many grains of salt when it comes to the Italian game because I am just beginning to watch it with regularity.

[Mindfulness]

Re: Serie A > 30th Nov - 2nd Dec Yes, agreed, they have played some tough sides but really there is no hiding the fact that Chievo are just plain rubbish and basically rely on their home form for survival. For me Chievo are weaker than last year and in trouble no matter what. Agree also with Genoa having next to no reliability, as I said earlier there will be pressure on them here and they haven't looked particularly cohesive all season. I just feel there maybe some momentum with Genoa now while Chievo just look like stagnating. Genoa -0.25 is worthwhile shortlisting in my view but I will want some positive news in the buildup otherwise I will find it hard to pull the trigger with such a tense, nervy match. It's good to hear your thoughts mate and good that you are watching the games. There's money to be made from Italian football, just have to keep paying attention.

[Dylan]

Re: Serie A > 30th Nov - 2nd Dec

If Dylan and Ultravires can tear themselves away from Berlusconi’s Bunga Bunga parties for 5 minutes and get back to some solid graft that would be great.

Ha! Well after a couple of weeks of wild orgies I'm back with a few tips that may or may not have been provided by a stripper going by the name of Ruby the Heart Stealer. Completely agree with Genoa and for me the -0.25 at 1.93 is currently the only bet that’s made it from my long list onto my shortlist so far. Chievo are just so poor right now. They’ve based their game over the past couple of seasons on defence and last season they had an excellent record conceding just 45 goals which I recall put them as the 7th best defence in the league, stronger than the likes of Napoli and Lazio. For a team that is pretty weak offensively that defence was crucial to them but unfortunately this season they lost a few key players from prior seasons (Bradley & Acerbi), whilst chopping and changing those who are left which has meant that the likes Cesar, Jokic and Sardo have rarely been on the field together and other than Danielli those been very little consistency to the back line. It’s likely that this may be the first game for some time that the back four is the same as in the previous league match which may help a little but with Jokic and Cesar still excluded from the line up, the Cheivo defence is still in my opinion in need of some improvement. All this isn’t helped by the fact that they are still toothless up front. Genoa have had a slow start under life with Del Neri but the win over Atalanta last weekend should give the players a bit more confidence going into to this tie. It always amazes me how Genoa do so poorly with the players they’ve got as they have a number of real quality and skill but too often they have lacked back bone and willingness to fight for the cause, an issue that certainly came to the fore last season and up until last weekend wasn’t particularly evident this season either. However that match against Atalanta has changed my perception of them a little bit, and of course they’ve been helped by Del Neri opting to go a little bit more defensive with his tactics, playing just the one striker these days. Honestly with this set up and with how poor Chievo are certainly in attack I just can’t see how even Genoa can contrive to lose this match (all though Vargas at left back might be fun to watch), they should have plenty of the ball with limited pressure on their defence and this should enable the likes of Jankovic, Bertolacci and Immobile to make use of that quality that they do have in attacking areas. Cheivo will try to contain but not convinced the defence is strong enough to hold out I’ve not had much time to look that deeply at this set of fixtures but I’m considering; - Samp away at Fiorentina. Like Das Phantom has mentioned Samp have started to turn things around recently results wise something which has coincided with the return of key men in defence and midfield and they should with the exception of the suspended Costa be strong and compact again for this trip to Florence. They would been a tough team to break down for a full strength Fiorentina outfit but given the absences they have up front with Jovetic, Llajic, Luca Toni and Aquilani all out its going to be even harder for the Viola to find a way past Samp here. With Obiang, Maresca and Munari the away side also have some excellent combative midfielders and its going to be difficult for Fiorentina’s midfield to control possession as much as they usually would. All in all a tough night for Fiorentina can be expected so any plus handicap on Samp is well worth a look. The +1.25 at 1.82 offers a decent price and mimimal risk. - I also feel Palermo like Samp are a bit long away to Inter. Inter are going through a tough spell at the moment, the first really slip up of Stramacionni’s reign and it be interesting to see what he tries to do to turn things around. At the moment I feel that they are becoming a little bit too predictable and lack any real dynamism which has given recent opposition much more confidence to attack them and take a few more risks. Palermo should be full of confidence going into this one then, fresh from that impressive derby performance against Catania last weekend and Gasperini I’m sure will be eager to prove a point to his past employers. It’s a shame that both Donati and Miccoli are suspended for this one, and certainly without the former in defence, Palermo do look a little weak defensively. I would however fancy them to have the edge in midfield certainly when it comes to keeping hold on to the ball and Dybala will be looking to feed off this. The jury is still out on the youngster but he was incredible against Sampdoria when I last saw him and this is a great opportunity for add to the hype. For me Palermo certainly have enough to trouble Inter and they may well be able to sneak something so again any + handicaps could be worth a look, with prices similar to those for Samp. I also like the look of goals, and whilst the over 2.5 is priced accordingly, the BTS at 1.83 or even total Palermo goals (over 0.5 at 1.67 or over 1.5 at 4.33) might be worth a look. The BTS is probably my most likely punt here. I’ll hopefully spot one or two other possibilities once I have a better look at the odds and team news. Thoughts are as always appreciated.

[notoriouspunter]

Re: Serie A > 30th Nov - 2nd Dec Great details in this thread :ok What about Lazio roma? They absolutely thrashed Udinese. They looked terrific going forward tough udinese made it easy for them kind of. Klose looks super sharp. Gonzales terrific. Hernanes came into the game netting a great freekick. They played high speed football hungry for goals. Parma(didnt watch them yet) seem to struggle away sometimes while beeing a home fortress. Would love to get some expectations on parma.. Im not so sure about Parma and how they will approach this game.. It looks like they want to play with 3 at the abck. Tough Lazio crsuhed udineses abck three with konko going forward. So they might had a good training for that match vs. parma. Pabon and Galloppa absent. how important? Im tempted to take Lazio(again) on the hc-1 and Klose to score. Odds look tasty.

[Mindfulness]

Re: Serie A > 30th Nov - 2nd Dec Fiorentina V Sampdoria Sampdoria +1.25 @ 21/25 (Pinnacle) 1 Unit Good post from Dylan and he has mentioned the breaking news that Jovetic, Toni, Llajic and Aquilani are all apparently absent for Fiorentina against Samp and this is enough for me to pull the trigger here. The market clearly has reservations about the away side in this match and I can understand for reasons mentioned in my previous post. It looks like CF Lopez, CF Pozzi and FW Eder may all be out for Sampdoria which is clearly a blow but with Fiorentina's offensive absences there's a decent chance Sampdoria wont get thumped here with their resilience, tenacity and newfound momentum. As things stand I feel the Sampdoria price is simply too long and so I have pulled the trigger early, how the market responds to the recent news I don't know. It can be a risk making early plays but I have to make a judgement call with the latest developments. Sampdoria +1 @ odds against is decent considering the current circumstances imo. I will cast a slightly wider net this time with the +1.25 line.

[Mindfulness]

Re: Serie A > 30th Nov - 2nd Dec

Great details in this thread :ok What about Lazio roma? They absolutely thrashed Udinese. They looked terrific going forward tough udinese made it easy for them kind of. Klose looks super sharp. Gonzales terrific. Hernanes came into the game netting a great freekick. They played high speed football hungry for goals. Parma(didnt watch them yet) seem to struggle away sometimes while beeing a home fortress. Would love to get some expectations on parma.. Im not so sure about Parma and how they will approach this game.. It looks like they want to play with 3 at the abck. Tough Lazio crsuhed udineses abck three with konko going forward. So they might had a good training for that match vs. parma. Pabon and Galloppa absent. how important? Im tempted to take Lazio(again) on the hc-1 and Klose to score. Odds look tasty.

Not sure how key Pabon is, played a fair bit this season so pretty much a regular, often deployed as a second striker. Galloppa is a decent central midfielder and will be missed. You're right, Parma are not the same side on the road, only 25% of their total points tally comming from away matches. 3 of the 4 away defeats were against Juventus, Napoli and Catania so they can be forgiven. Parma do seem quite tenacious making a late fight back at Udinese and then going on to beat Inter most recently so confidence will be high. Lazio are fairly imposing at home but because of Parma's recent exploits + organised defence the game is a no bet for me personally, others may see it differently.

[Dylan]

Re: Serie A > 30th Nov - 2nd Dec

Samp away at Fiorentina. Like Das Phantom has mentioned Samp have started to turn things around recently results wise something which has coincided with the return of key men in defence and midfield and they should with the exception of the suspended Costa be strong and compact again for this trip to Florence. They would been a tough team to break down for a full strength Fiorentina outfit but given the absences they have up front with Jovetic, Llajic, Luca Toni and Aquilani all out its going to be even harder for the Viola to find a way past Samp here. With Obiang, Maresca and Munari the away side also have some excellent combative midfielders and its going to be difficult for Fiorentina’s midfield to control possession as much as they usually would. All in all a tough night for Fiorentina can be expected so any plus handicap on Samp is well worth a look. The +1.25 at 1.82 offers a decent price and mimimal risk.

I'm also going to get on this early, as I can't see these excellent price hanging around for much longer once Fiorentina's striker problems get more widely known. I'm also taking a small punt on the DNB simply as the prices are so tasty. Sampdoria +1.25 1.82 at BetVictor (4 / 10 units) Sampdoria DNB 6.0 at Bet365 (1 / 10 units) Regarding Lazio I wouldn't necessary say that they are a team that prospers against back 3's and whilst the attacking performance against Udinese was the best i've seen Lazio play in a long time, I wouldn't be expecting them to suddenly play like this every match. Having a quick look through the fixtures they've failed to score against all of Juve, Napoli and Fiorentina who have 3 man defences and won by just the one goal against a poor Siena side too. Despite away results this year, Parma should be tough to beat on the road. I recall that Donadoni only lost twice in his 11 away games after he took over last season and whilst performances haven't been as solid so far this season (loosing to Pescara was a big surprise for me) they have got a bit of momentum with just one defeat in 7 which has carried them to a deserved 7th place in the league. Now that both are fit again Biabiany and Amauri have continued developing their good relationship, and the defence and mid are solid and organised enough to make life difficult for Lazio. Udinese were all over the place on Tuesday night and it's unlikey we'll see Parma offering as much space to Lazio's attackers. The price is just a little short for me to consider backing Lazio as this wont be easy for them.

[analyzer]

Re: Serie A > 30th Nov - 2nd Dec Catania - Milan Catania (+0.0) @ 2.54 Pinnacle It's clear for me why people bet on Milan in this game and Catania's odds look better. It seems like Milan is coming back now - you can see it from their last game in CL and against Juventus. However, my statistical calculations show that it makes sense to bet on Catania in this game: http://bettingstudio.com/pages/Game.aspx?TournamentID=543&GameID=180306. Reasons are the following: - Milan is very bad on road in this season - just one win; - Catania is very solid team now, especially at home: 5W-1D-1L - According to the current standings Catania is 1 point higher than Milan. So I don't think there is enough reasons to consider Milan as a favorite in this game.

[Petersson1984]

Re: Serie A > 30th Nov - 2nd Dec

Catania - Milan Catania (+0.0) @ 2.54 Pinnacle It's clear for me why people bet on Milan in this game and Catania's odds look better. It seems like Milan is coming back now - you can see it from their last game in CL and against Juventus. However, my statistical calculations show that it makes sense to bet on Catania in this game: http://bettingstudio.com/pages/Game.aspx?TournamentID=543&GameID=180306. Reasons are the following: - Milan is very bad on road in this season - just one win; - Catania is very solid team now, especially at home: 5W-1D-1L - According to the current standings Catania is 1 point higher than Milan. So I don't think there is enough reasons to consider Milan as a favorite in this game.

The absent of Spolli, Gomez, Biagianti, Izco and some reserves are also a factor in Milans favour. They are missing some too but not as critical as the hosts. Catania are a great home side but Milan won three og the last four visits to the island.

[assange58]

Re: Serie A > 30th Nov - 2nd Dec

Catania - Milan Catania (+0.0) @ 2.54 Pinnacle It's clear for me why people bet on Milan in this game and Catania's odds look better. It seems like Milan is coming back now - you can see it from their last game in CL and against Juventus. However, my statistical calculations show that it makes sense to bet on Catania in this game: http://bettingstudio.com/pages/Game.aspx?TournamentID=543&GameID=180306. Reasons are the following: - Milan is very bad on road in this season - just one win; - Catania is very solid team now, especially at home: 5W-1D-1L - According to the current standings Catania is 1 point higher than Milan. So I don't think there is enough reasons to consider Milan as a favorite in this game.

I agree and was going to ask the Italian experts here if Milan deserved this price. I guess Petersson clears it up a bit, but I sure as hell don't trust this Milan side to pull off an away win in Sicily!

[the_observer1900]

Re: Serie A > 30th Nov - 2nd Dec Hi guys, this is my first post so don't be too rude to me if I mess up something, thx :) Catania - Milan 2 @2,30 I'm gonna bet on Milan's win tonight for two simple reasons: - Catania have several, very important abscences as someone mentioned and comes from the Derby match vs Palermo, in which they were never able to show strenght. It' true that Catania is a different team at home but I think that they are slowing down a little bit from the incredible beginning of season. - AC Milan is in great shape, not only the results speak for that but the game and mentality shown in the last 3 games were very indicative. Moreover, the president Berlusconi came to visit the team at Milanello for the third time in a row, so I'm expecting a strong attitude tonight. Don't forget that AC Milan is already qualified in CL so they will not be worried about next week match (since they have very little chance to get the first place) vs Zenit (at home btw). If think the odds are pretty good so I'm gonna take this one with a medium stake.

[McNasara]

Re: Serie A > 30th Nov - 2nd Dec

Hi guys, this is my first post so don't be too rude to me if I mess up something, thx :)

welcome to the forum :welcome

[Sportsbts]

Re: Serie A > 30th Nov - 2nd Dec Juventus is in 1st place in Serie A, they have just got 2 consecutive games without victory and they also did not win in 2 consecutive games at home, in which they lost the crucial match by 1-3 at home against Inter Milan and were beaten 0-1 at Milan in one of the derby matches in Serie A. Torino is in 14th place with 15 points, they have drawn half of the 14 games played so far, 3 wins, 4 loses. Away from home, they just got 1 win, 5 draws, 1 defeat. Despite Juventus’s form is not good recent, however they will get a win at home in this game. They have won 5 of 7 games played at home so far against teams that have been generally stronger than Torino. I will put my bet on Juventus. Juventus has got an average of 3 goals per game in their last 5 games, 2 of these 5 games ended with under 2.5 goals. While Torino has got an average 2.2 goals per game, 4 of these 5 games also ended with under 2.5 goals. The Over 2.0 goals is my choice.

[assange58]

Re: Serie A > 30th Nov - 2nd Dec

Hi guys, this is my first post so don't be too rude to me if I mess up something, thx :) Catania - Milan 2 @2,30 I'm gonna bet on Milan's win tonight for two simple reasons: - Catania have several, very important abscences as someone mentioned and comes from the Derby match vs Palermo, in which they were never able to show strenght. It' true that Catania is a different team at home but I think that they are slowing down a little bit from the incredible beginning of season. - AC Milan is in great shape, not only the results speak for that but the game and mentality shown in the last 3 games were very indicative. Moreover, the president Berlusconi came to visit the team at Milanello for the third time in a row, so I'm expecting a strong attitude tonight. Don't forget that AC Milan is already qualified in CL so they will not be worried about next week match (since they have very little chance to get the first place) vs Zenit (at home btw). If think the odds are pretty good so I'm gonna take this one with a medium stake.

You got lucky with that red card. I took Milan -1.5 in play and got REALLY lucky with the 92nd min goal from (my new hero) Il Faraone :D

[azzurini1976]

Re: Serie A > 30th Nov - 2nd Dec preview taken from newsletter (ytd record 91 bets / 50,5 win / 13,5 void / 27 lost / ROI: 22%) SIENA – ROMA Previous game Siena CHIEVO SIENA 0-0 Player ratings: CHIEVO VERONA (4-3-1-2): Sorrentino 6; Andreolli 5,5, Cesar 5,5, Dainelli 6, Drame 6; Guana 5,5, Luciano 5,5 (42' Cruzado 6), Rigoni 5,5; Paloschi 5,5 (60' Samassa 4,5); Pellissier 5 (75' Cofie sv), Thereau 5,5. A disp.: Puggioni, Viotti, Farkas, Jokic, Dettori, Rigoni, Stoian, Di Michele, Moscardelli. All.: Corini 5,5. SIENA (3-4-2-1): Pegolo 6; Angelo 6 (63' Sestu 6,5), Contini 6,5, Felipe 6; Neto 6,5, Rubin 6,5, Bolzoni 6,5, Rosina 6,5 (84' Verre sv); Valiani 6 (89' Reginaldo sv), Vergassola 6,5; Calaio' 6. A disp.: Campagnolo, Farelli, Del Grosso, Dellafiore, Coppola, D'agostino, Rodriguez, Bogdani. All.: Cosmi 6,5. Game was a classical relegation six pointer so nervousness and overall cautiosness was to be on high here. Looking on recent games of both teams and also missings at both, there was a value on Siena, I did not make it as official bet, but recommendation for under 2.25 and Siena on +0.25 was sent. And it worked well, even more I believe that in this game limited of actions Siena was far more closer to a win as Chievo who lacked any creativity up front (M. Rigoni did not play). To the game, as said no real football but Siena did have in this whole game two or three clear chances, every time it was Calaio who missed the best ones, so I really believe if Siena had a better striker (remembering Destro in Siena shirt last season) they would have won this game without any problems – at same time I can only praise the movement and the feeling of positioning from this striker as he often came to shooting on a goal despite being crowded by defenceman. Now Chievo very limited at creating and both good cahcnes they have came from either a mistake or by circumastnace (once bad pass back, once deflected shot and save from keeper), IMO Chievo atm the worst team in the league – that despite Paloschi was back in the team. Siena really better with chances and they were almost all played out from wing play – all went to Calaio and he did everything correct, just finishing was lacking, but he did hit the post once and was unlucky not to score really. Overall I liked what Cosmi did, tactics that was predicted was 4-2-3-1 but this looked far more as an 3-4-3 or 3-4-2-1 on the pitch with both full backs having attacking duties aswell. Chievo played 4-3-2-1 with through the middle game, while Sienas distribution of the ball was very mixed, with most of danger coming from right wing. All in all, if you don’t shoot not once on target on your home game it just shows your weakness and I also don’t like the defence of Chievo either, surely they had injury problems and they missed 6 players in this game, but even so, last games they played are bad. Also this one no improvement and they can be lucky not to have lost it. Overall bad game as said, so I could speak more about tactics and problems of Chiev team rather match itself. Game was clear under as FT result in probably a just one, despite no one could argue if Siena had have won it at the end. Fair: 0-1 Previous game Roma PESCARA – ROMA 0-1 Player grades: PESCARA (3-5-1-1): Perin 6; Balzano 5,5, Bocchetti 5, Modesto 5,5 (79' Caprari sv); Romagnoli 5,5, Terlizzi 5,5, Bjarnason 5,5, Lund Nielsen 5, Quintero 5 (54' Weiss 6); Togni 6 (73' Soddimo 5); Abbruscato 5,5. A disp.: Pelizzoli, Cosic, Crescenzi, Brugman, Celik, Jonathas, Vukusic. All.: Bergodi 5,5. ROMA (4-3-3): Goicoechea 5,5; Balzaretti 6, Castan 6,5, Marquinhos 6,5, Piris 6; Bradley 6,5, Florenzi 6 (68' Marquinho 6), Pjanic 6; Destro 6,5 (77' Perrotta sv), Osvaldo 5 (87' Tachtsidis sv), Totti 7. A disp.: Lobont, Svedkauskas, Burdisso, Dodò, Romagnoli, Lopez. All.: Zeman 6. It was a game we had a bet on, basing it on many missing in Pescara team and ability of Roma to be able to break any defence in league with game style of them. Roma was completely better team in this game and missing of Lamela as I predicted did not show much, Destro filling his position excellently and he also scored already in 5th minute – and the boy had two clear chances also to put the game beyond doubt, but he failed to add another bet and win the bet that was eventually voided. Overall Roma as predicted attacking, while Pescara new coach tried with 3-5-1-1 formation (Terlizzi did recover) and they crowded the midfield area with bodies and tried to limit Roma of getting the ball to Osvaldo – and I must say that Pescara did look far more solid in this game as they did before, Roma did have 18 shots on goal, only 6 in frame of it, but major chances fell to Destro, Osvaldo was marked out of the game as hosts did good job there. But I must add that due to that Pescara’s attack suffered. Their attack was really nonexistent in first 75 minutes, only when they changed Quintero for Weiss, their left wing play become dangerous and I can say that Roma was lucky to escape punishment at the end – but also here, good defending as both dangerous shots from Pescara attack were solidly blocked. One thing is important to notice – De Rossi out means almost no problem for Roma when Bradley is playing, I can again say that next to Destro, his signing is the best this season for Roma, low profile player and great fighter and passer, with De Rossi back and if they will play together Roma will have probably the best DM/CM unit in league. Overall Pescara managed to leave solid defensive display, but I can say that Roma also made some bad last passes and that was also the consequence of not getting another goal, but also praise go to goalie Perin, who was excellent in some occasion – especially one on one with Destro was a superb save. Interesting news is also two games without conceding for Roma, but in all honesty, Pescara and Torino are one of weaker attacking teams in league, while Zeman also came back to Pescara whom he took in Serie A last season with a triumph. Fair: 2-0 Team news: Siena: Banned Out Paci, Angelo Doubtful Roma: Banned De Rossi Out Stekelenburg, Lamela, Taddei Doubtful Osvaldo Analysis: Siena almost complete now, Rosina, Dalessandro, Ze Eduardo and Bogdani all back, while Roma still misses De Rossi and Lamela with Castan as a doubt. It is now as hard as it gets to back Roma, okay name betting is okay, but bear in mind that this small Siena has lost only once in whole season – Juventus game it was. And while they are one of weakest teams I do like how they perform, even more, this minor team has conceded only in one game (4-2 vs. Cagliari) in last six! That means one of more stable defences, but also the truth is they played Chievo, Parma, Genoa. I like the unders here, as Siena now full team, while Roma better in defence in last two – 0 conceded while Lamela and Osvaldo are out or doubtful. Overal it is a hard game to bet on, Roma usually struggles away to Siena and they will have in this one also hard opponent to face, so maybe +0.5 on hosts might be also a good one, Roma just don’t like to play against organised teams and struggles again set up defences. Suggestion: under 3 @ 2.06

[malabgd]

Re: Serie A > 30th Nov - 2nd Dec Injuries and suspensions SSC Napoli v Pescara Calcio SSC Napoli: Pandev, Aronica, Maggio (all doubtful) Pescara Calcio: Colucci, Savelloni, Blasi, Quintero, Chiaretti, Jonathas, Balzano

[roumen]

Re: Serie A > 30th Nov - 2nd Dec Napoli v Pescara

• Vladimir Weiss is the topscorer for Pescara in this tournament this season with 3 goals
• Pescara have conceded most goals in the time interval 31-45 this season
• Pescara have scored most goals in the time interval 76-90 this season
• Pescara average 2.9 yellow cards in 14 matches this season
• Pescara concede 1.8 goals on average in 14 matches this season
• Édinson Cavani is the topscorer for SSC Napoli in this tournament this season with 8 goals
• SSC Napoli have not lost in 10 consecutive matches at home in this tournament
• SSC Napoli have not lost in 4 consecutive matches in this tournament
• SSC Napoli have conceded most goals in the time interval 76-90 this season
• SSC Napoli have scored most goals in the time interval 76-90 this season
• SSC Napoli average 2.5 yellow cards in 14 matches this season
• SSC Napoli have scored first in 71.0 % of the 14 matches this season
• SSC Napoli concede 0.8 goals on average in 14 matches this season
• SSC Napoli have scored in 79.0 % of the matches this season
• SSC Napoli have scored in 100.0 % matches at home this season
• In the 5 matches refereed by referee Sebastiano Peruzzo , 4 penalty/ies have been awarded this season
• In the 5 matches refereed by referee Sebastiano Peruzzo , 0.4 red cards are given on average this season
• In the 5 matches refereed by referee Sebastiano Peruzzo , 5.2 yellow cards are given on average this season

[Dylan]

Re: Serie A > 30th Nov - 2nd Dec :zzz Just to confirm what I’ve taken for today on top of Samp; Inter vs Palermo Both teams to score – 1.83 at BetVictor (3 / 10 units) Palermo over 1.5 team goals – 4.50 at Ladbrokes (1 unit) The more I think about this one the more I feel this game has got goals written all over it. Both sides are defensively poor, and both in need of wins, with Inter playing catch up for the CL spots and Palermo eager to pull away from relegation zone. Perhaps under normal circumstances we could have expected Palermo to go quite defensive minded for this one, but such a mentality is made difficult given the absence of Donati from defence and the fact that Palermo’s next 5/6 fixtures are incredibly difficult and they are going to need to be brave and try and pick up points from somewhere. This match against an out of form Inter may just be there best opportunity for a win until the end of January! Whilst Donati has only this season made the move into defence he has become a useful part of the Palermo back line and whilst they are still pretty average with him there it will be a lot tougher without him as the 4-1 defeat away at Roma a few weeks ago proved. He offers good leadership and organisation in their as well as being much better on the ball than most defenders are. The likely back three Munoz, Von Bergen and Garcia would be a cause for concern, and if Nagatomo and Zannetti can exploit the wide areas and get balls into the box then Milito and Palacio will give these three the run around all day. They won’t enjoy Coutinho running at them either. For me there is no point in Palermo being defensive as it simply doesn’t suit the players they have, and if they try to do this then Inter will have no problems scoring against them. The best thing for Palermo to do then is try to attack Inter, a team that hasn’t kept a clean sheet for 8 games now (6 of these in the league) something which is leading to plenty of questions about the defensive set up, and whether in the long term a back three is right for Inter. I’m certainly surprised that Nagatomo still appears to be the first choice as left full back, as whilst he’s a nippy player he gets out of position pretty often something which Morganella especially could exploit to find himself space down the right. Rannochia remains a liability in a back three and to be honest neither Samuel or Juan Jesus have really excelled themselves in recent weeks. Palermo’s front three of Dybala, Illicic and Brienza will all offer good movement and inter changing of positions and I’m not convinced that the Inter defence will be able to cope with particularly well with this movement. We’ve seen in recent weeks Cagliari and Atalanta exploit Inters defensive weaknesses and if they play at the top of their game then Palermo are much stronger going forward than either of those two teams. Genoa vs Cheivo Genoa -0.25 2.0 at Bet365 ( 2 /10 units) Not much more to add to my previous post as well as what Das Phantom has already commented on. Cheivo offer little attacking threat and so Genoa at home, buoyed by the win last week should be looking to get the upper hand. Cheivo wont buckle easily but the home side have a little bit of quality in Immobile and Jankovic and should be able to nick a goal. The price rise over night has made this an even more enticing prospect as has the news that both Sardo and Cesar have injury doubts and it would appear unlikely that both will make the team meaning more defensive changes for Cheivo. I did briefly flirt with backing Roma as well but having read Azzurini's excellent preview I've decided against. I don't particularly rate this Siena team at all but have to give them credit for recent home performances. Good luck to everyone having a punt on todays matches. :hope

[Mastahh]

Re: Serie A > 30th Nov - 2nd Dec If Miccoli was playing I'd bet on Palermo to score more than 2 goals, but missing Miccoli is a huge blow for them,anyway good luck mate

[assange58]

Re: Serie A > 30th Nov - 2nd Dec Porco dio! Genoa trying to ruin it already...

[Dylan]

Re: Serie A > 30th Nov - 2nd Dec Yep. Awful day so far for me, apologies to anyone who followed or were influenced by my completly wide of the mark write ups. Will refrain from posting picks for Serie A until after the xmas break I think. It is possible to make money on Serie A but I think i'll need to revisit my strategies again, i've gone right of the boil after a decent start to the season. Well done any winners today and lets hope Samp come through with the goods tonight, to stop this day getting any worse. :puke

[assange58]

Re: Serie A > 30th Nov - 2nd Dec

Yep. Awful day so far for me, apologies to anyone who followed or were influenced by my completly wide of the mark write ups. Will refrain from posting picks for Serie A until after the xmas break I think. It is possible to make money on Serie A but I think i'll need to revisit my strategies again, i've gone right of the boil after a decent start to the season.

I followed you & Phantom on Genoa, but PLEASE NO APOLOGIES! You are merely offering suggestions and explaining why it is worthwhile to you. You are certainly not forcing people to follow your tips and so blames rests where it should: squarely on me and anyone else who placed the bets. I am very grateful for your and Phantom's write-up despite the outcome and would urge you to keep posting! So what if some picks didn't work out, there's always tomorrow....

[Mindfulness]

Re: Serie A > 30th Nov - 2nd Dec

Sampdoria +1.25 @ 21/25 (Pinnacle)

FT: Fiorentina 2-2 Sampdoria = BET WON I was pretty appalled with Sampdoria's defending from set-pieces in this game but it was balanced out by the fact they countered very effectively and managed to take something from the game in the end. Mighty pleased this was the only shortlisted fixture I pulled the trigger on with so many strange results out there today, what the hell happened to Geona? I would have said the very best Chievo could hope for in that game would be a draw, crazy result. Apologies if anyone's decision making was swayed by my initial thoughts post, "For me Guidolin's team lacks teeth" is a quote we should all quickly forget with Udinese winning 4-1 today. Anyway let's see what the next card has to offer.

[Dylan]

Re: Serie A > 30th Nov - 2nd Dec

I'm also going to get on this early, as I can't see these excellent price hanging around for much longer once Fiorentina's striker problems get more widely known. I'm also taking a small punt on the DNB simply as the prices are so tasty. Sampdoria +1.25 1.82 at BetVictor (4 / 10 units) Sampdoria DNB 6.0 at Bet365 (1 / 10 units)

Well Samp save the day a little, so just -2.72 for the day. Good work Das Phantom def need to be a bit more selective with my picks like you appear to be. I'll still post thoughts / team news etc in the next few weeks but might not make any bets public. Didn't see any of the Genoa game so will have to watch highlights / read the match reports to see if Chievo have had a massive tactical change or whether Genoa just messed things up agai . I know having checked the stats at half time that Cheivo had three shots and scored three goals. Clinical.

[Mindfulness]

Re: Serie A > 30th Nov - 2nd Dec

Well Samp save the day a little, so just -2.72 for the day. Good work Das Phantom def need to be a bit more selective with my picks like you appear to be. I'll still post thoughts / team news etc in the next few weeks but might not make any bets public. Didn't see any of the Genoa game so will have to watch highlights / read the match reports to see if Chievo have had a massive tactical change or whether Genoa just messed things up agai . I know having checked the stats at half time that Cheivo had three shots and scored three goals. Clinical.

I have a very low volume betting model and it seems to work for me personally (at the momment). High volume can obviously be effective aswell when you look at someone like Azzurini who still gets very nice yields with lots of bets every card but his knowledge of calcio is exceptional. I think your work in Italy is extremely good and appreciated by a lot of people, especially me. I would say your losing bets have been down to bad luck rather than bad judgement as I don't really see where you're going wrong. It's not really my place to try and dish out advice but if you think you need to alter something then perhaps look at simplifying your betting model. This could be something like only operating in 1 market (AH for example) or reducing/increasing volume etc. Personally I think if you keep doing what you're doing then it wont be long before you start clocking up the units again. Anyway I'll stop rambling as you're probably thinking shutup Phantom you condescending oaf!

[assange58]

Re: Serie A > 30th Nov - 2nd Dec

I have a very low volume betting model and it seems to work for me personally (at the momment). High volume can obviously be effective aswell when you look at someone like Azzurini who still gets very nice yields with lots of bets every card but his knowledge of calcio is exceptional. I think your work in Italy is extremely good and appreciated by a lot of people, especially me. I would say your losing bets have been down to bad luck rather than bad judgement as I don't really see where you're going wrong. It's not really my place to try and dish out advice but if you think you need to alter something then perhaps look at simplifying your betting model. This could be something like only operating in 1 market (AH for example) or reducing/increasing volume etc. Personally I think if you keep doing what you're doing then it wont be long before you start clocking up the units again. Anyway I'll stop rambling as you're probably thinking shutup Phantom you condescending oaf!

Just to add my condescension, I'd say selective betting models are much harder to profit from because losing streaks hit you harder. I bet high volume in large part for that very reason. If I have a sizeable chunk of losses, more often than not, it gets balanced by some decent wins. In other words, if you guys have been doing this low volume selective betting for some time and not gone bust, then you obviously know what you are about!

[Mindfulness]

Re: Serie A > 30th Nov - 2nd Dec

Just to add my condescension, I'd say selective betting models are much harder to profit from because losing streaks hit you harder. I bet high volume in large part for that very reason. If I have a sizeable chunk of losses, more often than not, it gets balanced by some decent wins. In other words, if you guys have been doing this low volume selective betting for some time and not gone bust, then you obviously know what you are about!

I'm not arguing against high volume models, it's the way most people go. Low volume is working for me at the momment, if I went on a really bad loosing streak then I would consider switching to high volume. All I'll say is keep it simple and stick to what works for you.

[Kumanovac]

Re: Serie A > 30th Nov - 2nd Dec

what the hell happened to Geona? I would have said the very best Chievo could hope for in that game would be a draw, crazy result.

I am pretty surprised that all of you went for Genoa. In every single of their last 9-10 games they were outplayed by the opponent. IMO, the main problem is Del Neri, of course, because he has a solid team, but the gameplay and team cohesion are awful. Only excuse could be financial problems, but if there are no financial problems, Del Neri should have been sacked 5 weeks ago. They have a solid defense player by player, but they play bad defensively. They have some names in attack too, but they are bad in creating chances. If something does not change, Genoa will go to Serie B, together with Pescara which is two classes apart from other teams.