paparainbow Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 lets say someone has priced the 3way full time final (%) and the 2way halftime final (%) how can we calculate the double result odds? mathematically speaking the outcomes are not independent, hence you cannot just multiply them. any good ideas? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...

Ledu Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Re: double result - odds I'm not sure if I undertood your point but: example: 1X2 = odd = % 1 = 1,60 = 63% X = 3,30 = 30% 2 = 2,10 = 48% Double Chance: 1X = 93% = 1,08 2X = 78% = 1,28 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...

froment Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Re: double result - odds Ledu, I think you’ve got it wrong – he did not ask for double chance, but double result; that’s market HT home – FT home, and so on, you know. Paparainbow, as far as I know this field, you are right – these events are dependent, so you cannot just multiply them; probability of dependent events A and B is Probability (A and B) = Probability (A) * Probability (B if A fulfilled) This means, you lack data for calculation – you need to know probability of team A to win FT if team A has already won at HT; probability of draw FT if team A has already won HT, ..., probability of team B to win FT if team B has already won HT. Now, this 2-way HT result confuses me a bit – I don’t know which two ways exactly – DNB, or double chance, or what? Anyway, I will try to explain the missing data using the tree. There are three possible events at full time – 1, X or 2; let’s label probailities as FT1, FTX and FT2; and there are two possible events at half time – 1 or 2 (although I don’t know exactly what HT1 is – team A to win, or team A draw no bet, or Team A double chance, etc...; although it does not change the calculation); let’s label probabilities as HT1 and HT2. I also asume you have not built overround into your probabilities, i.e., their sum is 1. Obviously, there are six possible scenarios within second half: 1. Second half started after event 1 at half time, and ended as event 1 at full time – let’s label probability as HT1FT1. 2. Second half started after event 1 at half time, and ended as event X at full time – HT1FTX. 3. Second half started after event 1 at half time, and ended as event 2 at full time – HT1FT2. 4. Second half started after event 2 at half time, and ended as event 1 at full time – HT2FT1. 5. Second half started after event 2 at half time, and ended as event X at full time – HT2FTX. 6. Second half started after event 2 at half time, and ended as event 2 at full time – HT2FT2. Obviously, there are two scenarios that lead to full time event 1 – scenarios 1 and 4; those two events are mutually exclusive – match is either 1 either 2 at halftime, so its probability is sum of those two probabilities. Scenario 1 consists of two events: event 1 at halftime (probability HT1), and event 1 at fulltime IF event at halftime was 1 (probability HT1FT1); those two events are independent, so its probability is multiplication of the two probabilities (in fact, they are independent only from mathematical point of view; in reality, performance of a team within first half, or other occurences – cards, injuries, etc., may give them a boost or depression for second half, so they are not really independent; that in fact means, you cannot really decide probabilities HT1FT1, HT1FTX, etc., before halftime); the same applies for other scenarios. So, finally, we have this equation: FT1 = HT1 * HT1FT1 + HT2 * HT2FT1 In the same way: FTX = HT1 * HT1FTX + HT2 * HT2FTX, and FT2 = HT1 * HT1FT2 + HT2 * HT2FT2 In addition: HT1FT1 + HT1FTX + HT1FT2 = 1, and HT2FT1 + HT2FTX + HT2FT2 = 1 So, you have 5 equations, and 6 variables, and, as I said in the beginning, you’re lacking data to determine the probability you’re after... :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...

Ledu Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Re: double result - odds Ledu' date=' I think you’ve got it wrong – he did not ask for double chance, but double result; that’s market HT home – FT home, and so on, you know.[/quote'] :spank :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...

paparainbow Posted November 20, 2012 Author Share Posted November 20, 2012 Re: double result - odds i can calculate the h/f by using a live model. i can calculate all the possible outcomes of 1st half and then all the possible final outcoume based on the initial score of 2nd half.. nevertheless this is not a formal mathemarical aproach, more likely a simulation. results are pretty decent and consistent with the bookies outthere. i want to expand my models to other sports, like, basketball, handball or rugby, where calculating exact scores is not the basic idea. This is y i am asking you if you have any ideas Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...

paparainbow Posted November 20, 2012 Author Share Posted November 20, 2012 Re: double result - odds ps:thanx for your replies Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...

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