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Group A > Nov 21 (D.Kiev, D. Zagreb, Porto, PSG)


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[TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=class: firstColumn]Dynamo Kyiv v Paris Saint-Germain (19:45 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.62[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.00 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617] [TR=class: row1] [TD=class: firstColumn]FC Porto v Dinamo Zagreb (19:45 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.21[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]7[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]20[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.93 % [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
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Re: Group A > Nov 21 (D.Kiev, D. Zagreb, Porto, PSG) FC Porto v Dinamo Zagreb I had a fair bit on PSG to beat D.Zagreb by a couple of goals at least in the last round and it was pretty comfortable, 4-0 in the end. Dinamo Zagreb have lost every group game for the last 2 seasons, which is 10 games and counting. I doubt if others will feel there is 'value' in Porto to win this game on handicaps at the prices I've taken but I expect a very comfortable game for Porto. Zagreb are not of the required quality for football at this level, they are yet to score a goal in the group stages. They dominate Croatian football every year and as it stands lead the championship by 10 points, it is not a high standard of football though and without strong sides in the domestic competition they struggle when required to step up to this level, the first game in Zagreb between these two finished 2-0 to Porto and it could have been a few more, Sammir is their best player and most of their attacks go through him, regular Rukavina is ill and unlikely to play I'm not sure what other injuries they have as team news is thin on the ground at the mo. The Zagreb fans have been boycotting their teams games for some time, I don't know all the background to this but their attendances in the campaign have been very poor, I think it is to do with the lack of investment in the team from the owners who continue to put financial weight behind other teams under the Zagreb sporting umbrella. Zagreb will have to play in a defensive formation and rely on counter attacks as they have done in their other games, they never do it very well though as they never have to play this way in Croatia and as such you see a lot of the goals they have conceded have been because players are out of position and unable to track runners. This is the perfect type of team for Porto to play against they have pace and movement throughout their forward line - Varela, Moutinho, Martinez, Rodriguez. Porto are an absolute machine at buying South American players and turning them into multi-million pound profits, their record is probably second to none, Colombian James Rodriguez is likely to follow on this path after Hulk and Falcao, Moutinho will go for 25m+ soon enough too, striker Martinez is also performing very well and scoring plenty. Fernando and Alex Sandro are out as far as I can tell although they returned to training this week, Steven Defour and Gonzalez will make up the rest of the midfield. Porto's home record is very good in general and I would be shocked to see them not win this by a couple at least, they played in the domestic cup at the weekend and most of the side was rested in a 3-0 win so they are plenty fresh. Porto have a tough game against Braga at the weekend but they have a big game midweek too, Porto have already qualified but will tie up top spot if they win this, I expect them to win this by 2 at the very least. Another big outlay for me. FC Porto -1EH - 1.44 - ladbrokes (1.5 is available at stan james, unfortunately I can't bet with them but looks a very good price) - 12.5 Points FC Porto -1.5,-2.0AH - 1.57 - pinnacle - 12.5 Points FC Porto -2.0AH - 1.72 - pinnacle - 12.5 Points

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Re: Group A > Nov 21 (D.Kiev, D. Zagreb, Porto, PSG) Dynamo Kiev v PSG Kiev have to win to stand a chance of qualifying. PSG qualify if they draw. The eight group games played by the clubs so far have averaged 3 goals per game. The game in Paris ended 4-1 to PSG, and I think there could be goals here too with Kiev needing the win. Over 2.5 goals looks attractive at odds of 2.2 Over 2.5 2.2 Pinnacle

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Re: Group A > Nov 21 (D.Kiev, D. Zagreb, Porto, PSG) Wasn't going to write it up here but I have put 10/10 on the Porto win @ 1.15. Agree with what's been said. It has been very profitable backing against Dinamo Zagreb the last couple of years. Some will see it as too low to be bothering with @ 1.15 but I find this kind of bet to work long term.

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Re: Group A > Nov 21 (D.Kiev, D. Zagreb, Porto, PSG)

Dynamo Kiev v PSG Over 2.5 goals looks attractive at odds of 2.2 Over 2.5 2.2 Pinnacle
At first glance I am in conplete agreement. Then I notice my books offering over 2 @ 1.62 and I start to get worried. For a team like PSG (yes they are crap right now, but they have King Zlatan & weapons everywhere) to get this price makes me think something is up. I know PSG just need a point, but still over 2 against D. Kiev? Can anyone (Ukrainians, preferably) inform us as to the weather conditions or anything else that may be the reason for this strange offering?
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Re: Group A > Nov 21 (D.Kiev, D. Zagreb, Porto, PSG)

Wasn't going to write it up here but I have put 10/10 on the Porto win @ 1.15. Agree with what's been said. It has been very profitable backing against Dinamo Zagreb the last couple of years. Some will see it as too low to be bothering with @ 1.15 but I find this kind of bet to work long term.
It works if you don't lose. I think its safe if the match is between one of the top European sides and a very weak side (which applies to Porto-Zagreb IMO) and crucially, the stronger side must have the incentive to take to the game seriously--e.g. need it to qualify, etc. Unfortunately it only takes a few losses with these odds to really do you in, so you have to be super selective.
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Re: Group A > Nov 21 (D.Kiev, D. Zagreb, Porto, PSG) As has been stated before Dinamo are well and truely out of their Depth for the last two seasons. They have only scored twice in their last 10 Champ League matches. I think going over to Porto they will also find it hard to score again. Porto to Win to Nil looks good with Betfair @1.72

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Re: Group A > Nov 21 (D.Kiev, D. Zagreb, Porto, PSG) Porto -1 @ 1.40 Sportsbet I agree with everything that's been said here, Porto to win this one comfortably at home, and by a few goals I'd suspect. I generally wouldn't touch a handicap bet with such short odds, but like most I'm tipping Porto to wipe the floor with their opponent.

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Re: Group A > Nov 21 (D.Kiev, D. Zagreb, Porto, PSG)

At first glance I am in conplete agreement. Then I notice my books offering over 2 @ 1.62 and I start to get worried. For a team like PSG (yes they are crap right now' date=' but they have King Zlatan & weapons everywhere) to get this price makes me think something is up. I know PSG just need a point, but still over 2 against D. Kiev?[/quote'] I don't quite understand your point. I think you are doubting that overs is good value, but why? :unsure
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Re: Group A > Nov 21 (D.Kiev, D. Zagreb, Porto, PSG)

I don't quite understand your point. I think you are doubting that overs is good value' date=' but why? :unsure[/quote'] Yes, I do see value there, but I am bothered that my books are even offering over 2 for this match--says to me something must be up. You see, I am in USA where online sports betting is in a legal gray area, so most sites offer only a few lines for football. Hence, I only see over 2 in matches where teams that absolutely cant score are playing. PSG, even in really bad form, is certainly not one of these sides. I am even seeing over 1.5 which IMO is utterly ridiculous IMO for the quality that PSG possesses.
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Re: Group A > Nov 21 (D.Kiev, D. Zagreb, Porto, PSG)

Porto -1 @ 1.40 Sportsbet :D :beer I agree with everything that's been said here, Porto to win this one comfortably at home, and by a few goals I'd suspect. I generally wouldn't touch a handicap bet with such short odds, but like most I'm tipping Porto to wipe the floor with their opponent.
Comfortable win here.
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Re: Group A > Nov 21 (D.Kiev, D. Zagreb, Porto, PSG)

FC Porto v Dinamo Zagreb I had a fair bit on PSG to beat D.Zagreb by a couple of goals at least in the last round and it was pretty comfortable, 4-0 in the end. Dinamo Zagreb have lost every group game for the last 2 seasons, which is 10 games and counting. I doubt if others will feel there is 'value' in Porto to win this game on handicaps at the prices I've taken but I expect a very comfortable game for Porto. Zagreb are not of the required quality for football at this level, they are yet to score a goal in the group stages. They dominate Croatian football every year and as it stands lead the championship by 10 points, it is not a high standard of football though and without strong sides in the domestic competition they struggle when required to step up to this level, the first game in Zagreb between these two finished 2-0 to Porto and it could have been a few more, Sammir is their best player and most of their attacks go through him, regular Rukavina is ill and unlikely to play I'm not sure what other injuries they have as team news is thin on the ground at the mo. The Zagreb fans have been boycotting their teams games for some time, I don't know all the background to this but their attendances in the campaign have been very poor, I think it is to do with the lack of investment in the team from the owners who continue to put financial weight behind other teams under the Zagreb sporting umbrella. Zagreb will have to play in a defensive formation and rely on counter attacks as they have done in their other games, they never do it very well though as they never have to play this way in Croatia and as such you see a lot of the goals they have conceded have been because players are out of position and unable to track runners. This is the perfect type of team for Porto to play against they have pace and movement throughout their forward line - Varela, Moutinho, Martinez, Rodriguez. Porto are an absolute machine at buying South American players and turning them into multi-million pound profits, their record is probably second to none, Colombian James Rodriguez is likely to follow on this path after Hulk and Falcao, Moutinho will go for 25m+ soon enough too, striker Martinez is also performing very well and scoring plenty. Fernando and Alex Sandro are out as far as I can tell although they returned to training this week, Steven Defour and Gonzalez will make up the rest of the midfield. Porto's home record is very good in general and I would be shocked to see them not win this by a couple at least, they played in the domestic cup at the weekend and most of the side was rested in a 3-0 win so they are plenty fresh. Porto have a tough game against Braga at the weekend but they have a big game midweek too, Porto have already qualified but will tie up top spot if they win this, I expect them to win this by 2 at the very least. Another big outlay for me. FC Porto -1EH - 1.44 - ladbrokes (1.5 is available at stan james, unfortunately I can't bet with them but looks a very good price) - 12.5 Points WIN FC Porto -1.5,-2.0AH - 1.57 - pinnacle - 12.5 Points WIN FC Porto -2.0AH - 1.72 - pinnacle - 12.5 Points WIN
A good result but certainly got a bit lucky, in the first half Zagreb were the better side, hit the inside of the post and had one saved on the line by the man on the post. Porto were obviously the better side but weren't as fluent in attack as I've seen them before, still they won 3-0 and were much better in the second half..Zagreb are just out of their depth. The City game killed me really, would have been on for massive profit if the third goal had gone in, but c'est la vie..;)
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Re: Group A > Nov 21 (D.Kiev, D. Zagreb, Porto, PSG)

A good result but certainly got a bit lucky' date=' in the first half Zagreb were the better side, hit the inside of the post and had one saved on the line by the man on the post. Porto were obviously the better side but weren't as fluent in attack as I've seen them before, still they won 3-0 and were much better in the second half..Zagreb are just out of their depth. The City game killed me really, would have been on for massive profit if the third goal had gone in, but c'est la vie..;)[/quote'] You are right that Dinamo had two great chances in the first half. But I still think your bets would have come through even if Dinamo had scored and taken the lead. It's just that Porto is so much better team that whenever they increased even a little the pressure, the immediately got a goal chance. So, a goal for Zagreb would have probably meant a 4-1 final score. Dinamo are not CL standards, especially in defense.
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Re: Group A > Nov 21 (D.Kiev, D. Zagreb, Porto, PSG)

Why does there have to be a conspiracy theory behind every market that looks like value? Maybe you've identified value where a bookmaker has priced things differently. I think we should see less of these conspiracy theories' date=' and more reasoning based on facts, logic, and statistics :ok[/quote'] Fact: my books don't offer over 1.5 or 2 very often. Fact: PSG are loaded with ridiculous talent. Conclusion: I become skeptical about how much value is actually there. Where have I neglected to apply logic and reasoning? I am based in USA, so its not easy to (A) watch games or (B) get information about games, teams, etc. Hence, when I say "something must be up" I mean there could be something I am not aware of or have missed. Notice I asked about the weather in Ukraine. Conspiracy theories have nothing to do with my comment. good lord
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Re: Group A > Nov 21 (D.Kiev, D. Zagreb, Porto, PSG)

A good result but certainly got a bit lucky' date=' in the first half Zagreb were the better side, hit the inside of the post and had one saved on the line by the man on the post. Porto were obviously the better side but weren't as fluent in attack as I've seen them before, still they won 3-0 and were much better in the second half..Zagreb are just out of their depth. The City game killed me really, would have been on for massive profit if the third goal had gone in, but c'est la vie..;)[/quote'] Nice one HG :clap I would have followed if Porto had needed the result, but I noticed the game was more or less a 'dead rubber' (I know Porto still had to guarantee top spot), and I've noticed meaningless games at the end of group stages can throw up strange results. But you judged it very well by the look of it.
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