Autumn Internationals 2012

[wprathead]

[TABLE=width: 500]

[TR] [TD]Italy (-8)[/TD] [TD]Tonga (+8)[/TD] [TD]10th Nov[/TD] [TD]14:00[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]England (-32)[/TD] [TD]Fiji (+32)[/TD] [TD]10th Nov[/TD] [TD]14:30[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Wales (-9)[/TD] [TD]Argentina (+9)[/TD] [TD]10th Nov[/TD] [TD]14:30[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Ireland (+5)[/TD] [TD]South Africa (-5)[/TD] [TD]10th Nov[/TD] [TD]17:30[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]France (-3)[/TD] [TD]Australia (+3)[/TD] [TD]10th Nov[/TD] [TD]20:00[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Scotland (+26)[/TD] [TD]New Zealand (-26)[/TD] [TD]11th Nov[/TD] [TD]14:30[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[SteveO]

Re: Autumn Internationals 2012 Wales v Argentina This is a very tough fixture for Wales and I'm sure there'll be some very edgy moments in front of an expectant Millenium crowd. This is Wales' first test since June and it could take a little while to get going and there is a definite weakness in the Welsh front row with the absence of Adam Jones which I'm sure the Argentinians will exploit. Wales should win but I think it will be by the narrowest of margins and a bet on Wales to win by 1 -12 pts is the call. Recommended Bet: Wales to win by 1 -12pts at 13/8 with PaddyPower Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/rugby-union-wales-v-argentina-betting-wales-to-struggle-in-opening-autumn-interantional-against-argentina

[SteveO]

Re: Autumn Internationals 2012 England v Fiji Should England gel quickly tomorrow they could really run riot and a high score should be on the cards. Being their first time together since the tour of South africa they could start a little rusty and I'm sure they'll score most of their points during the second half which is why I like the 4/5 on offer by Bet365 for just that and I think that is less risky bet than taken on the handicap of England -31. Recommended Bet: Highest scoring half to be the second half at 4/5 with Bet365 Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/rugby-union-england-v-fiji-betting-experienced-england-to-rack-up-the-points-at-hq

[SteveO]

Re: Autumn Internationals 2012 Ireland v South Africa At full strength I think Ireland would have really given South Africa a game especially with such chilly conditions forecast, but they just do not have the squad depth that the Top 3 Nations in the World have and it will take an awful lot to beat this hugely talented Boks side. Ireland have won just two of their last 9 tests culmianting in a 60 -0 hammering at the hands of New Zealand in June. South Africa are - 4 on the handicap and they should exceed that but just in case Ireland get off to a flyer which they sometimes do in Dublin I'm going for the -2 on the second half handicap. Recommended Bet: South Africa -2 to beat Ireland on the second half handicap at 10/11 with Bet Fred Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/rugby-union-ireland-v-south-africa-betting-tough-task-for-depleted-ireland-side-against-the-powerful-boks

[SteveO]

Re: Autumn Internationals 2012 France v Australia This is still very much a French side in transition but the selection of Michalak at 10 is quite baffling even though he did impress against Argentina last time out. The absence of Thierry Dusatoir is a big loss and without players of the calibre of Harinordoquay and Julien Bonnaire they could lack a little leadership out there. Australia still have quite a few key players missing but such is they squad depth that they are still hugely competitive and well capable of beating the French. I feel France are a far better team when Trin Duc and Parra are paired together and I have very little confidence in this side which players have been Known to have particular off days in the past. Recommended Bet: Australia to beat France at 8/5 with SportingBet Full preview here:http://www.punterslounge.com/rugby-union-france-v-australia-betting-australia-to-kick-off-their-tour-with-a-win-against-the-french

[SteveO]

Re: Autumn Internationals 2012 Scotland v New Zealand From a betting perspective I couldn't bring myself to back Scotland if they were 100/1, the void in class really is that vast. Now the handicap is far more interesting whereby Scotland are giving a + 27 advantage. Scotland haven't lost by that margin since 2010 and yes you've guessed it that was a 3 - 49 loss to the All Blacks and prior to that you have to go back to 2007 where they conceeded 49 - 0 against the Kiwis. So Scotland only seem to lose by more than 27 pts against New Zealand but they have beaten that margin in 2 of the last 5 fixtures between these teams. New Zealand also aren't quite at full strength. they have named a new centre partnership of Ben Smith and Tamati Ellison and that partnership won't quite put the same fear in to the opposition that Ma Nonu, Conrad Smith or Sonny Bill would. whilst players like Wyatt Crockett Luke Romano and Julia Savea are still relatively new to the set up. New Zealand will win and win quite comfortably but Scotland are a far better defensive side recently and I think the All Blacks will struggle to beat the 27 point handicap especially minus their three main destructive centres. Recommended Bet: Scotland +27 to beat New Zealand at 10/11 with Bwin Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/rugby-union-scotland-v-new-zealand-betting-some-big-names-missing-for-new-zealand-gives-scotland-some-hope

[Spankyf]

Re: Autumn Internationals 2012 Wales Argentina As above Wales will have it tough tomorrow. Argentina coming off a good showing in the RC but no wins. Wales will remember their last three games and want to get a win to get the monkey off their back. Normally I would be looking at a healthy Welsh win but the Pumas have learned a thing or two. I am looking forward to seeing Sanchez at 10 with Hernandez at full back since it strengthen their territorial game. They're not reliant on Contempomi anymore but he will add great experience to the bench. Welsh fitness will count as in recent years (since they've been going to a training camp pre series) they've managed to be really effective in the second half, which is usually when Argentina wither. Still, the Pumas will have had time to work on their weaknesses and they'll want a scalp sooner or later to back up their performances. Wales are historically the better side but the conditions and the lack of game time together may let the South Americans in for a competitive encounter. Averages for the last 8 games between the two in Wales are 19-26 with a solitary win for Argentina. I'm counting on the away sides recent form against the top three sides in the rankings for the generous handicap to come through. Argentina +10.5 @ 9/10 Bet365

[Spankyf]

Re: Autumn Internationals 2012 England Australia For me this is definitely a home win. England weren’t tested last week but had a nice game to get their combinations right in front of their home fans. Ashton is back in and that is the only change. Goode performed well and so did the half backs which leads me to believe they should have a bit of an edge in getting over the try line with so many of the more creative Australians out of contention due to injury. A lot’s been said of the victory last week for France, especially that France were flattered by the score. I don’t think so. France played good alright, but the Wallabies – with plenty of ball in hand especially in the first half – looked bereft of creativity. The likes of Beale seem to be playing with pressure to turn the ship around. I don’t think it will fill any back in their squad with confidence to see Harris (who’s played alright recently and is decent with the boot) jettisoned in favour of Barnes who’s territorial kicking style won’t create many clean breaks for them against a defensively sound English back three. Nice to see Digby Ioane back though. Ben Alexander back in the front row and they will need him: England will definitely target the Wallaby scrum. I feel Lancaster wants that SH scalp after missing out in South Africa. He’s blooded lots of new players over the year and there is a new enthusiasm surrounding the English team. I think they’ll cover. England -6 @ 10/11 Blue Square

[SteveO]

Re: Autumn Internationals 2012 Italy v New Zealand Italy have beaten this margin in their last 17 home matches and the question is can they do it against a side that is being regarded as the best ever? I think they can, Italy's scrum is always solid and their big names play here. Luciano Orquera starts at 10 and is a far better player than Kris Burton who always looks a liability in that position. There's no fear of an Italian victory but they can stay within a 30 point margin against an All Blacks side minus several key players. Recommended Bet: Italy +30 to beat New Zealand at 10/11 with Ladbrokes Full prview here:http://www.punterslounge.com/rugby-union-new-zealand-v-italy-betting-italy-no-longer-the-whipping-boys-can-triumph-on-the-handicap

[SteveO]

Re: Autumn Internationals 2012 England v Australia I think Australia are well capable of bouncing back against England and an Aussie win wouldn't surprise me at all despite all their injuries. Prior to last weekend's drubbing at the hands of the French they previously sent a patched up side to Argentina and came away with a 25 - 19 victory and they then went on to end New Zealand's 16 match winning streak by drawing 18 - 18 in Brisbane. That is still World class form of the highest quality and with Ben Alexander back to strengthen the front row and Berrick Barnes and Digby Ioane in the backs I think England will find them a very formidable outfit. Australia are given +8 on the handicap and I think there's plenty of value in that. Recommended Bet: Australia +8 to beat England at 10/11 with skybet Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/rugby-union-england-v-australia-betting-australia-to-bounce-back-after-horror-show-in-paris

[nev]

Re: Autumn Internationals 2012 Wales to score over 26.5 points v Samoa 4/5 boylesports I expect to see a Wales backlash after last week and expect this to be a good high scoring game of rugby between two sides who have tries in them ill be amazed if wales dont score over 30 points against Samoa so was delighted to see this line and having a big punt on it

[SteveO]

Re: Autumn Internationals 2012

Wales to score over 26.5 points v Samoa 4/5 boylesports I expect to see a Wales backlash after last week and expect this to be a good high scoring game of rugby between two sides who have tries in them ill be amazed if wales dont score over 30 points against Samoa so was delighted to see this line and having a big punt on it

Yep that looks a sound bet Nev. I've stayed well clear of this match as Wales were so poor last week and there doesn't seem that much entuhusiasm in the camp without Gatland there. Dan Biggar has a real chance though to stamp his claim on the 10 jersey tonight as Priestland has been really poor in the last few tests. Good luck!

[nev]

Re: Autumn Internationals 2012 Cheers mate,great posts by the way

[Spankyf]

Re: Autumn Internationals 2012 I thought it was a decent looking bet too but Wales were terrible. Poor old Howley, the players just aren't performing for him: they couldn't even muster a try of their own making. Well done Samoa, to mangle an Aussie-ism 'easy Cam-Pisi'... oh dear :\

[SteveO]

Re: Autumn Internationals 2012 Scotland v South Africa Scotland have won just 1 match from the last 13 matches against South Africa and more importantly 9 of those were home fixtures. The current wooden spoon holders in the Six Nations racked up some nice wins over Fiji, Samoa and Australia away from home during the Summer but that form looks a reltive flash in the pan for the Scots. I think South Africa will win this match far easier than they did against Ireland and are unlikely to start as badly as they did in Dublin. Just in case they do though I'll again take South Africa -5 on the second half handicap as they're sure to be far too powerful for the Scots in that period. Recommended Bet: Sout Africa -5 to beat Scotland at 10/11 with BetFred on the second half handicap Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/rugby-union-scotland-v-south-africa-betting-powerful-boks-too-strong-for-the-scots

[SteveO]

Re: Autumn Internationals 2012 France v Argentina France are quite rightly favourites for this match but it's Argentina who I'm siding with on the handicap. They are +10 underdogs but have covered that margin on their last 6 visits to France with three of those being victories. Add in to that the fact that this is undoubtebly the finest Argentinian side ever who have really improved under some indirect coaching from Kiwi Graham Henry and it's hard to find a reason not to back them. Recommended Bet: Argentina +10 to beat France at Evens with Ladbrokes Full preview here:

[SteveO]

Re: Autumn Internationals 2012

I thought it was a decent looking bet too but Wales were terrible. Poor old Howley' date=' the players just aren't performing for him: they couldn't even muster a try of their own making. Well done Samoa, to mangle an Aussie-ism 'easy Cam-Pisi'... oh dear :\[/quote'] It really is unreal mate how poor Wales have been although take nothing away from Argentina and Samoa who were both excellent. They look static in attack and George North just doesn't look like breaking a tackle. Don't know if it's Gatland's absence, Howley's coaching or what but something's not right. Unless of course they were on some of that Lance Armstrong stuff during the World cup and Six Nations :unsure

[Leeds Legend]

Re: Autumn Internationals 2012 Samoa vs Wales was pretty one sided... the dropping of their best player didn't help, nor did Priestland's brutal kicking game throughout. Really not sure where to go with my picks for tomorrow to be honest.

[Spankyf]

Re: Autumn Internationals 2012

For me this is definitely a home win... England -6 @ 10/11

Bet lost, deservedly with assumptions like that. Some lessons we just have to keep learning. I thought England had the ability to create more than that but credit to Australia; you just can't write them off.

[SteveO]

Re: Autumn Internationals 2012 The handicap for Wales v New Zealand of Wales +18 looks way out to me. I expect NZ to name their strongest side and with Carter, Dagg and Cory Jane back I think Wales are going to be well and truly walloped. Gatland's back at the helm this week but unless he's got a magic wand it's hard to see how Wales can undergo a drastic transformation. Their scrum couldn't compete against Samoa and it is likely to disintergrate against the All Blacks. It's currently pissing down here in South wales but there's fine weather forecast Saturday which will enable the All Blacks to rack up the points. I'll give a write up further on when teams have been announced but this loos the standout bet on the handicap to me this week and I expect the +18 to get bigger as the week progresses.

[Spankyf]

Re: Autumn Internationals 2012 Well spotted mate, it looks very low indeed. I took advantage of the additional handicap of -14 and added Argentina +12 @ 6/5. I expect it to be closer to 2 or 3 pts in the latter game. Last weeks game where the young tyro's of the future (Ulster players Gilroy, Marshall, Jackson and Cave were all great) played as best they could against a very poor Fiji was a nice performance, but it won't tell us much. Regardless of who's selected they'll find it tough against an Argentina side whom they have a 58% win record against. Argentina have kept the pace up post 4N with the excellent Wales win and will surely be keen to atone for the loss against the French last weekend - imho the best NH side at the moment. I think the teams will be very evenly matched and the both sets of backs and forwards have very little between them. I really am worried for Ireland chances and annoyed given their excellent club form has not transposed, and I reckon Argentina will give them a closer fight than bookies have posted here intially.

[SteveO]

Re: Autumn Internationals 2012 Wales down to +17 with some firms now :unsure

[hugothefourth]

Re: Autumn Internationals 2012 Hey guys, First post and happy to be here! I prefer looking at the win margins rather than the handicaps on one-sided games like this (wales vs NZ). There are some tempting prices. For instance NZ to win by 21-30. PP has the best odds for these options. This option is priced at odds at 4 (3/1) suggesting (compared to the handicap) that it's more than twice as difficult to land. I'm not buying that! To spread the range a little bit further I would also place smaller wagers on exact winning margin (again PP) on NZ by 20 and NZ by 31 GL

[Pie-chucker]

Re: Autumn Internationals 2012 England v Boks Camel coats can't split these two. SA must be running on fumes by now and mighty England re-shuffled in the pack and back in white shirts. Lump on England? Not likely! The way into this one might be to assume it will be a dour contest. Bok defence is massive and rain forecast at Twickenham. England bish-bosh centres (yes you, Mr Tuilagi) taking wings out of equation. Boks not creating much at the moment, and knackered. It's a 15-12 game probably. Relieve the boredom of it all by having a crack at.... No try scorer @ 14-1

[SteveO]

Re: Autumn Internationals 2012 Welcome Hugo, always nice to have fellow Rugby Union fans post as they're quite thin on the ground here. Good luck with your bets Sir:ok

[SteveO]

Re: Autumn Internationals 2012 Ireland v Argentina With Ireland still missing some very big names in Kearney, O'Connell, O'Driscoll, Ferris and Best I make Argentina favourites to win this game and at 15/8 are excellent value to come away with the victory and finish off a very commendable international season. Recommended Bet: Argentina to beat Ireland at 15/8 with Paddy Power Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/rugby-union-ireland-v-argentina-betting-argentina-to-end-their-tour-on-a-high-by-beating-the-irish Italy v Australia Italy played extremely well against New Zealand last week but as the All Blacks often do they ran away with the game in the last quarter. The Italian scrum was as solid as ever and they really did try to play an expansive game but were never going to beat a team of the quality of the Kiwis. I think they'll put up another proud display against the Aussies but as they mostly do they'll come off second best during the second half. Recommended Bet: Italy +8 to beat Australia on the half time handicap at 5/6 with BlueSquare Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/rugby-union-italy-v-australia-betting-can-italy-produce-a-solid-80-minutes-against-australia Wales v New Zealand Dan Carter apart this looks like New Zealand's strongest possible team and having scored heavily against Scotland and Italy in recent weeks I see no reason why they won't run riot in the Millenium Stadium tomorrow. Cruden has shown that he is just as able at conducting the backline as Carter is and they will undoubtebly inflict serious damage on a Welsh side that in recent weeks has been totally avoid of any passion, commitment or attacking flair and the All Blacks can easily exceed a -17 handicap Recommended Bet: New Zealand -17 to beat Wales at 10/11 with PaddyPower Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/rugby-union-wales-v-new-zealand-betting-too-late-for-gatland-to-spare-welsh-blushes

[SteveO]

Re: Autumn Internationals 2012 England v New Zealand Apparently there's been a sickness bug in the New Zealand bug this week but despite that news I think The All Blacks will still put on a show tomorrow afternoon and end the year in fine fashion. They have named a very strong side and with Dan Carter back I can see them scoring heavily against an England side that hasn't seemed to have progressed since a pretty decent Six Nations this year. Playing both Barritt and Tuilagi at centre means England lack any kind of invention in the backline and having named Farrell at outside half it seems damage limitation is the order of the day but I see the All Blacks exceeding a -15 handicap. Recommended Bet: New Zealand -15 to beat England at Evens with Bet365 Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/rugby-union-new-zealand-v-england-betting-new-zealand-to-end-the-year-on-a-high-by-walloping-england Wales v Australia I really think either side could record a tight victory here but I think the best bet here has to be on the unders as I think that neither side will score heavily especially Wales who has a number 10 seriously lacking in confidence and looks a liability every game he plays. Also the Australians looked a pretty tired side in the second half against Italy last weekend and I just can't see many tries in this game at all. Recommended Bet: Total points under 41.5 at 10/11 withBet365 Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/rugby-union-wales-v-australia-betting-wales-in-danger-of-dropping-out-of-the-top-8-against-australia