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November/December 2012


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Re: November/December 2012 Berdych +3.5 games to bt Murray @1.826 Pinnacle (3/10) Muzza was looking really bad in the Paris decider against Janowicz, and his health is IMO questionable by now. This guy had to withdraw from ATP Finals last year after his first match, and who knows how does he feel this year. Berdy has good H2H against Andy, and he always managed to play tough matches with him. Their last encounter this year at US Open was severely influenced by the wind, and I am sure Tomas was really pissed off by this match. He will seek revenge. Tomas wisely tanked in Paris against Simon, and he had some days off before this match. +3.5 seems really good offer to me.

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Re: November/December 2012 ATP Knoxville Challenger - Adam Hubble to beat Greg Jones @ 12/5 Strength (5/10) BET 365 Greg Jones is a considerably better player than doubles specialist Hubble but I don't think he is in great shape. He retired last week against Lajola and in his match yesterday against rank novice Liebetis he wasn't particulary convincing and had to save nine break points. I still think he's suffering, and considering he's not defending any points here I doubt his motivation levels as well. Hubble is pretty limited but he has a big serve that works well in indoor conditions. He fired down 19 aces yesterday and if he serves similarly well I can see him getting Jones in his present condition. :hope

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Re: November/December 2012

ATP Knoxville Challenger - Adam Hubble to beat Greg Jones @ 12/5 Strength (5/10) BET 365 Greg Jones is a considerably better player than doubles specialist Hubble but I don't think he is in great shape. He retired last week against Lajola and in his match yesterday against rank novice Liebetis he wasn't particulary convincing and had to save nine break points. I still think he's suffering, and considering he's not defending any points here I doubt his motivation levels as well. Hubble is pretty limited but he has a big serve that works well in indoor conditions. He fired down 19 aces yesterday and if he serves similarly well I can see him getting Jones in his present condition. :hope
Thanks, decided to bet big on this one thanks to your preview and the 3x return is more than sweet!
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Re: November/December 2012 ATP Tour Finals - Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to beat Novak Djokovic @ 4.30 >Betfair There are two main reasons why I like the look of this bet. Firstly, there are question marks about Djokovic's mindset at the moment (for reasons that have been well reported). Secondly, Djokovic's performance in this tournament last year is something that I can still remember. His loss to Tipsarevic was abject, and makes me wonder if there is something about the conditions or the tournament that stops him from producing his best. Tsonga should be very motivated, and has had success against Djokovic in the past which should help him in this match. Another thing in favour of the Frenchman, as far as I'm concerned, is that he lost in Paris last week to Ferrer in the quarters. Djokovic lost to Querrey. In his first match. After bagelling Querrey in the first set. That's not great preparation in my eyes.

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Re: November/December 2012 Here are my thoughts on today's matches: Roger Federer v Janko Tipsarevic This really should be a straightforward victory for Federer. He's the freshest of the eight men here in London, having skipped Bercy last week. Moreover, he loves playing in this city, is the defending champion and the conditions are to his liking. Tipsarevic has been a pest in the past for the Swiss player, but the Serb was ill in Paris and there are no guarantees he'll be in 100% shape to take on Federer. It's hard to see past the Swiss in this match, but the odds, short as they are, reflect that. David Ferrer v Juan Martin Del Potro Much is going to depend on how fatigued Ferrer is. He may seem like a Duracell bunny but bear in mind that he's played two straights weeks, winning titles in Valencia and Paris. Evidently he comes here in good form, but he didn't have to beat a whole array of talent to win those events and Del Potro is by far the hardest man he's faced in the last few weeks. The Argentine is in fine nick himself, winning Vienna and Basel, and he's made big improvements in his serve. Losing early in Paris will be a blessing in disguise for him and as he's the fresher and more powerful of the two players, it'd be a surprise where he not to win and avenge his loss to Ferrer at Wimbledon this summer. He's the favourite in the mid 1.60s, but that seems a respectable and bettable price. Good luck if you play :ok

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Re: November/December 2012 ATP Tour Finals - Janko Tipsarevic to beat Roger Federer @ 9.00 >Betfair Although there is the possibility that Tipsarevic will not be totally fit for this, as he has retired from two matches in the last few weeks, this doesn't concern me as much as it might do if it were another player. Tipsarevic is an enigmatic player, more than capable of retiring one week against someone outside the top 100, then beating someone in the top 10 the next. It's true that Federer should be fresh and rested, but also it's possible as this is his first match that he might be rusty. Tipsarevic caused a big shock at this event last year when he beat Djokovic, and I wouldn't completely discount him from repeating the trick here. It's entirely possible that this will be one way traffic and that Tipsarevic could completely crumble, but I'm hoping Tipsarevic will be inspired by his surroundings and memories of last year to give a good account of himself in this match. Something else to consider is that Federer generally only loses these days to top 10 players, and Tipsarevic is one, regardless of the h2h record and the fact that he is big underdog for this. Worth a small stake for me.

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Re: November/December 2012 Del Potro (-2 games) to beat Ferrer. 2.06 @ Pinnacle I don't understand why everybody is on to Ferrer. Sure Ferrer is in incredible form and he has a 5-2 h2h with 1 at Miami and 1 Wimby this year. But to be honest I can't see DP losing this. He was in great form winning the mediocre Vienna titel but especially beating Federer at his home Basel to snitch the title. DP then was burned and you could clearly see his fatigue in the match against Llodra, add in that the Frenchman was playing very aggressive and well, DP's loss wasn't such a crazy thought after all. Ferrer has been playing a lot of tennis the last few weeks. Even with this machine I can't imagine that this guy will be fresh both mentally as psychically. The conditions are very fast here and if DP is on his game, he should quite frankly, beat Ferrer quite easily. No matter what the h2h says. The only way I see Ferrer winning is if he keeps smart and keeps playing slices to stay in the rally and keep the ball low for that long DP. But rallies will get so long, no way Ferrer will be able to keep the pace up. And if Ferrer opts to play aggressive with straight up groundstrokes, DP will able to win that bashing game keeping the pressure going. DP should be fresh and prepared for this encounter.

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Re: November/December 2012 ATP Tour Finals - David Ferrer to beat Juan Martin Del Potro @ 2.40 Betfair I think Ferrer is worth backing in the match, despite the consensus that Del Potro should prevail. He leads the h2h and is in terrific form, winning his last two tournaments. Fatigue could be an issue, but I think this early in the tournament the adrenaline of the occasion will mean that Ferrer will be his usual combative self. This is too close to call in my opinion, so I'm going with Ferrer.

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Re: November/December 2012 ATP Tour Finals - Novak Djokovic to beat Andy Murray @ 1.86 >Betfair Close one to call in my opinion. Close H2H, but I think Djokovic is playing slightly better than Murray. Murray didn't win very convincingly against Berdych and I think if Djokovic takes the first set, it will be difficult for Murray to come back.

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Re: November/December 2012

ATP Tour Finals - Novak Djokovic to beat Andy Murray @ 1.86 >Betfair Close one to call in my opinion. Close H2H, but I think Djokovic is playing slightly better than Murray. Murray didn't win very convincingly against Berdych and I think if Djokovic takes the first set, it will be difficult for Murray to come back.
Yeah but Djokovic wasn't convincing aswell against Tsonga, so wheres the rest of your motivation? It does seem that Murray is more comfortable on this surface, he's playing at home seemed a lot better the second and third set against Berdych, whereas Djokovic still looks distracted with his dad and isn't on top of his game. (does anyone know the exact condition? He himself doesn't want to talk about it and latest info that I have heard of is that he's still hospitalized) To be honest I think this is a pure coinflip so anything above that for either two should, in theory, be value. I was leaning more to the over market, but odds there aren't worth it either. This is a skip for me.
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Re: November/December 2012 ATP Tour Finals - Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to beat Tomas Berdych @ 2.30 >Betfair This is a match that both players could really do with winning, and I think it will be a close run thing. They met recently in the final of the Stockholm Open, where Berdych came out on top. Tsonga had his chances in the match though, having won the first set. The h2h also bears out that it should be a tight match, but interestingly one of the matches was in this tournament last year. On that occasion Tsonga was the victor, and that might help to give him an edge tonight. This is another match that could go either way for me, so the price on Tsonga looks good.

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Re: November/December 2012 Back Granollers/Lopez to beat Paes/Stepanek for a 2/10 stake at 2.67 with Pinnacle Not sure what this is about, but I would have the odds much closer. Both pairs are in good form, so anything can happen really I would say. Paes and Stepanek are the more experienced duo of the two, but Granollers and Lopez make up for that with their agility and excellent attitude. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/granollers-lopez-vs-paes-stepanek-betting-the-spanish-duo-can-upset-the-veterans-in-london Back Roger Federer (-4.5) to beat David Ferrer for a 2/10 stake at 2.02 with Pinnacle Federer has always been a nightmare match-up for Ferrer and I cannot see anything changing this time around either. Yes, Ferrer has been brilliant in recent times, but he is still going to come up short against Federer's serve and attacking play, so I expect a one-way traffic in this match today. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/federer-vs-ferrer-betting-david-ferrer-should-be-no-match-for-federer-in-london Back Juan Martin del Potro (-4.5) to beat Janko Tipsarevic for a 2/10 stake at 2.05 with BetVictor Del Potro looked good against Ferrer despite the loss in the end and I expect him to keep his chances alive with a nice win today. Tipsarevic has been really poor for quite some time now and it would take a gigantic effort to turn that around right here and right now. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/del-potro-vs-tipsarevic-betting-the-powerful-argentinian-can-record-a-decent-win-over-janko-tipsarevic

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Re: November/December 2012 ATP Tour Finals - David Ferrer to beat Roger Federer @ 5.00 >Betfair Ferrer must surely feel that if he is ever going to beat Federer, now is the time. He is in the form of his life and made the perfect start to the Tour Finals by battling past Del Potro. As is often the case, he gave everything he had, and I'm sure today will be no different. It's true he has never beaten Federer, but there is a first time for everything and his confidence must be sky high right now. I think Davydenko had a similar record against Federer before he managed to beat him, so perhaps today is the day Ferrer snaps Federer's winning streak against him.

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Re: November/December 2012 Back Tomas Berdych (+1.5 sets) to beat Novak Djokovic for a 2/10 stake at 2.31 with Pinnacle Tomas Berdych has been playing rather well so far and the H2H record between the two suggests that he is fully capable of taking a set against the Serb, who does not really have to worry that much about dropping a set today. He will win, but he might not be able to do it in two sets. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/djokovic-vs-berdych-betting-novak-djokovic-might-be-in-for-a-rather-tiring-encounter Back Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (+1.5 sets) to beat Andy Murray for a 2/10 stake at 2.50 with Paddy Power Worth a shot as well I would say, as Murray has dropped sets in both matches so far and Tsonga can be quite dangerous when swinging freely. The pressure is on Murray here and he has not been as consistent as he would have liked to be so far, so I can see him dropping a set against the Frenchman today. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/tsonga-vs-murray-betting-jo-wilfried-tsonga-can-still-do-some-damage-in-london Back Bhupathi/Bopanna to beat Mirnyi/Nestor for a 2/10 stake at 2.20 with Bwin Mirnyi and Nestor have been the biggest disappointment for me so far and they might not be able to turn that around today, as Bhupathi and Bopanna have been in good form recently and should be able to give them a good run for their money. 50/50 at worst for me. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/bhupathi-bopanna-vs-mirnyi-nestor-betting-mirnyi-and-nestor-might-lose-yet-another-tight-encounter-in-london Back Marray/Nielsen to beat Lindstedt/Tecau for a 2/10 stake at 2.15 with Unibet On the other hand, Marray/Nielsen have been the biggest surprise of the tournament so far and there is every chance that they are going to win yet another match here. They love playing in London and should have at least some edge against Lindstedt and Tecau, who have been in poor form recently and have nothing to play for either. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/marray-nielsen-vs-lindstedt-tecau-betting-marray-and-nielsen-can-upset-yet-another-solid-duo-in-london

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Re: November/December 2012 Back Tie Break in First Set - Yes for a 1/10 stake at 3.50 with Bet365 Haven't gone for this sort of bet for quite some time, but it seems to me that it should not be priced at 3.50 here. We all know that both Federer and del Potro know how to serve well and they are both in very good form, so it is fairly probable that the first set will be a tight one, especially with so much on the line for both players. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/federer-vs-del-potro-betting-a-long-match-might-be-on-the-cards-for-the-two-great-players Back J.Tipsarevic/D.Ferrer - Over 19.5 games for a 2/10 stake at 1.92 with Pinnacle Let's give Tipsarevic chance I would say. He was actually quite decent in the second set against del Potro and I expect him to try his best in what will be his last competitive match of the season. He should also finally get some chances on return and that should help him with keeping this match reasonably close. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/tipsarevic-vs-ferrer-betting-janko-tipsarevic-to-end-the-season-with-a-determined-performance

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Re: November/December 2012 ATP Tour Finals - Roger Federer to beat Juan Martin Del Potro @ 1.47 >Betfair I think Federer will come through in this match, even though he does not need to win. He is dominant in the h2h, despite losing indoors in Switzerland the last time he played Del Potro. I think that result will serve as extra motivation for Federer, as I'm sure he wanted to win that match as it would have secured him a tournament victory in his home country. I also think he will want to make a statement here about his intent in this tournament, and also his recent dominance of it - he will want to show Del Potro that his victory against him in this tournament a few years ago was a one-off. He wasn't at his best against Ferrer in his last match but still got the win, and I'm sure he will step up his performance in this match. Del Potro's only tricky match so far was against Ferrer, who managed to get the better of him. Given that Federer beat Ferrer quite easily even though he wasn't firing on all cyclinders, I think Federer is playing the better tennis right now and will get the win.

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Re: November/December 2012 The situation changed after Delpo's win. Now Ferrer Tipsa match is dead rubber for both. Ferrer might be pissed off by Federer's performance that did put him off before his match actually started. Therefore he might stick with the scenario that makes Delpo a winner of the group with Federer qualifying second. All that is needed is that Ferrer loses to Tipsa. Would be quite funny, but the question is - is Ferrer able to think this way? I think he is not.

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Re: November/December 2012 Back Andy Murray to beat Roger Federer 2-1 for a 1/10 stake at 4.34 with Pinnacle A great battle should be on the cards here, even though neither guy is coming into this in a particularly excellent form. Murray is the better player of the two and should play well in home conditions, but he has been a bit inconsistent so far, so I would expect Federer to nick a set. A speculative punt, but one that looks value to me. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/murray-vs-federer-betting-the-battle-of-two-great-players-can-easily-go-to-the-distance Back Granollers/Lopez to beat Marray/Nielsen for a 2/10 stake at 1.62 with William Hill Marray and Nielsen are on a dream run in London, but their performance against Lindstedt and Tecau showed that you should not overestimate the importance of their early victories. For me, the Spaniards have been the second best team of the tournament so far and I expect them to go through to the finals in the end. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/granollers-lopez-vs-marray-nielsen-betting-the-spanish-duo-can-end-the-dream-run-of-marray-and-nielsen

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Re: November/December 2012 ATP Tour Finals - Juan Martin Del Potro to beat Novak Djokovic @ 5.10 >Betfair I think this match could be close, and that Del Potro has every chance of sneaking the win. He's always seemed to me to be a confidence player, and his confidence seems to be related to how well he is serving. At the moment his big serve is firing, which means tie-breaks are a possibility, and we saw how dominant Del Potro was in the tie-break against Federer yesterday. Despite his record in the group stages, I'm still not totally convinced by Djokovic, for reasons mentioned in earlier posts. Conversely, Del Potro has grown into this tournament and has improved with each match. He also has good memories about being successful here, having reached the final a few years ago. I don't think Djokovic and Del Potro are as far apart as the prices suggest.

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Re: November/December 2012 ATP Tour Finals - Roger Federer to beat Andy Murray @ 2.40 >Betfair Even though Murray has had the upper hand in this match-up recently, Federer leads the h2h indoors and loves this venue. He's looking for a hat-trick of titles and I expect him to be very much up for this. I think he has played the better tennis so far in this tournament, and although I think it will be close I expect him to come out on top.

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Re: November/December 2012 ATP Marbella Qualifier - Dominic Thiem to beat Jordi Samper-Montana @ 11/10 BET 365 Strength (6/10) Good price here on Thiem. He's a very good talent and has more in his locker than the Spaniard, and will go onto to have a better career. He's beaten the likes of Lacko, Burquier recently and pushed guys like Matosevic and Authom pretty hard and this at only age of 19 and only really starting to play proper tournaments. He's looked impressive in qualifying beating Androic comfortably, and also pushed Martin Klizan very close on clay back in July, so he can play on the red stuff as well. He should win here. :hope

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Re: November/December 2012 Add Dominic to your blacklist, slider, LOL :-) edit: I've got the impression this match was typical example of purposely tanked match. Dominic made sure he gets broken twice in the beginning of each set (by making unexplicable unforced errors), and only then he started to play his game. Too late of course. edit2: Thiem vs Samper Montana 46 16. Thiem won just 3 of his 9 sevice games. The bottom line is: NEVER bet bloody challengers.

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