Group D > Nov 6 (Man City, Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Ajax)

[Sir Puntalot]

[TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617]

[TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=class: firstColumn]Manchester City v Ajax (19:45 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.45[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]8.5[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.73 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617] [TR=class: row1] [TD=class: firstColumn]Real Madrid v Borussia Dortmund (19:45 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.48[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]8[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.07 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[scotty657]

Re: Group D > Nov 6 (Man City, Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Ajax) Do City merit being this short? Yes it's a must win and they have the home support, but what indications is there that they should win here? Last season they drew with Napoli, beat Villarreal with the last kick of the ball and beat a weak Bayern side who had already qualified, still going out. Add into that a 1-1 draw with Dortmund this season and its not convincing reason. Fair enough they now have that experience under their belt but I'm not sure they merit these odds after the smashing they recieved 2 weeks ago against this Ajax side, and also considering their team absentees. Maicon, Lescott, Milner, Silva and Rodwell should all sit out. Ajax could rename the same team which brushed aside City last time. I wouldn't be surprised if City did manage to win here but I wouldn't want to risk cash on, at best, a 1.45 shot. If I do bet it will be on the draw at 5.00 with BetFred.

[Zacharael]

Re: Group D > Nov 6 (Man City, Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Ajax) I think Ajax to score has value. They are an attacking side and might put it in the net tomorrow night.

[Jase82]

Awful price on City. They've bombed against many many sides now in the CL, and don't warrant IMO being so short. Ajax are no mugs as shown in the return fixture. I'd back the overs here with greater certainty than a City win.

[Fedar]

Re: Group D > Nov 6 (Man City, Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Ajax) Guys, the price on City is realistic in my opinion. They are neither under, nor over-estimated. Yes, Ajax are no mugs, but they are a weak team, compared to the standards of the CL. They are playing also poor in the Eredivisie. City at home in a must-win fixture, and City away, with Barry and Milner on, are two completely different things. I am confident that Mancini has learned his lesson and will have much more attacking approach. Ajax are very bad in the back and they concede plenty of goals and chances against mediocre Dutch teams. Really cannot see City failing to win in a fourth consecutive CL game, especially against relatively poor team. I am not sure if its worth backing them since the price is more or less realistic, but I definitely don't recommend backing Ajax in any form. There are enough other games in this round where you can oppose favorites with little motivation which are given ridiculous prices, so I don't see the point in betting against a must-win, fully motivated City at home.

[Doles83]

Re: Group D > Nov 6 (Man City, Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Ajax) in my experience people often over esitmate the effect of a side having to win a all costs. This is oftern mis-interpruted as that team will push themselves more and play to the very best of their abilities but it often doesnt work out that way city are unbackableat the moment

[Fedar]

Re: Group D > Nov 6 (Man City, Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Ajax)

in my experience people often over esitmate the effect of a side having to win a all costs. This is oftern mis-interpruted as that team will push themselves more and play to the very best of their abilities but it often doesnt work out that way city are unbackableat the moment

I don't agree with you here! A big team is much more likely to win against under-dog when the game is more specific for them - a decisive match; a match following immediately a defeat; a game when they have a chance to pass their main rival in the table; etc. Surprising scores in football are mostly due to under-performance by the favorites. It is very rare that the favorite plays according to their standards, but losses to the underdog. And under-performance is much less likely when the game is "special" and crucial than in a normal game when mistakes can be easily repaired.

[Aidymac]

Re: Group D > Nov 6 (Man City, Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Ajax) For me personally, i honestly think City should be 1.80 for this match, 1.45 is farcical. They got destroyed against Ajax last time out, couldn't score against West Ham, struggled to beat Swansea at home and got destroyed by Dortmund at home. City are out of the champions league now, they know that too, so if anything, Ajax have more incentive to get a result here, and Ajax would also have more interest in competing in the Europa League than City would have. City can win at that price, i won't be backing it.

[Fedar]

Re: Group D > Nov 6 (Man City, Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Ajax)

City are out of the champions league now' date=' they know that too, so if anything, Ajax have more incentive to get a result here[/quote'] I am sorry, but how did you reach this conclusion?! How did you calculate that "City are already out of CL"?! If they win here and Dortmund expectedly loses in Madrid, they within 3-points reach with a direct game to play.

[Aidymac]

Re: Group D > Nov 6 (Man City, Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Ajax) They will do well to get a draw against Madrid, and they won't beat Dortmund away. Mancini already said they are as good as out. Yes, mathematically they are still in it, but do you actually think they have a chance? For me, they have no chance.

[Fedar]

Re: Group D > Nov 6 (Man City, Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Ajax) It does not matter what me or you think about City's chances, it matters what City themselves think about it. From what you wrote, it seemed like City will probably take this as an annoying Europa League fixture and they probably will save effort for the Premiership weekend game. This is so wrong! I don't know if City will win tomorrow, but I bet all my property that City will fight for their lives against Ajax and they consider it as one of the most important games of the season. Just to remind you that several months ago Mancini said the same thing about their Premiership struggle for the title and you know what happened to Manchester United a few weeks later. I think he is trying to take the pressure off his players tomorrow, but they will surely play at a 100% motivation level.

[Aidymac]

Re: Group D > Nov 6 (Man City, Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Ajax)

It does not matter what me or you think about City's chances, it matters what City themselves think about it. From what you wrote, it seemed like City will probably take this as an annoying Europa League fixture and they probably will save effort for the Premiership weekend game. This is so wrong! I don't know if City will win tomorrow, but I bet all my property that City will fight for their lives against Ajax and they consider it as one of the most important games of the season. Just to remind you that several months ago Mancini said the same thing about their Premiership struggle for the title and you know what happened to Manchester United a few weeks later. I think he is trying to take the pressure off his players tomorrow, but they will surely play at a 100% motivation level.

At the end of the day, it is the price that matters. Are City a backable price? Nowhere near for me. Ajax are going to be fighting for their lives too, don't forget that. They have nothing to fear, they already battered City.

[disposal bag]

Re: Group D > Nov 6 (Man City, Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Ajax) Agree that the price is set right. Ajax played ok back in amsterdam but were also a bit lucky with the eriksen goal and the chances that city missed when the score was 2-1. Ajax played really bad saturday against Vitesse and fully deserved their loss. They didn't created any chances only a lucky one of De Jong when the score still was 0-0. Overall ajax has a record for playing games in Engeland last year the won at old trafford. Moisander will be returning in de squad instead of denswill. F de Boer is not a trainer that will chance the line up big after de 3-1 victory. Vermeer v Rhijn alderweireld moisander blind schone poulsen de jong babel eriksen sana babel told the dutch press he wants to play striker and not left winger but the other left winger is out of form(boerrigter) So the can rotate in the front but ajax to score will be the best bet for me, especially with the misses for city in defense Also the overs look good for me, last games ajax looks vulnerable in defense because moisander still not plays at his former AZ level and is weak defending high balls in and needs many foulds. So second bet moisander yellow card. Bts 1.74 betfair over 2.5 1.59 betfair moisander yellow 2.8 unibet

[RedDevil92]

Re: Group D > Nov 6 (Man City, Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Ajax) Man City are in a must-win situation but they play poor right now. They were lucky to have beaten Swansea 1:0 as the goal by Tevez came out of nothing. They are playing **** football plus they have a long casualty list: defenders Lescott, Richards and Maicon and midfielders Silva, Rodwell and Milner are injured while Kolo Toure is not registered for this competition. Odds are not good enough to back them.

[McGlashan]

Re: Group D > Nov 6 (Man City, Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Ajax) Ajax +1.25AH 1.96@ pinnacle City and Mancini don't have great records in the CL, Silva is an injury doubt and without him they struggle creatively. He missed their last four games which went 1-2 away win at West Brom, 3-1 loss to Ajax, 1-0 home win vs Swansea and 0-0 draw at West Ham. I really like the +1.25 odds, was expecting the line to be closer to +1.0.

[nev]

Re: Group D > Nov 6 (Man City, Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Ajax) Man City to score in both halves v Ajax evs paddypower Im a city fan and they are not playing well but i think people are thinking ajax are better than they are.They did not batter city,city were all over them in second half till ajax scored from a corner and then scored a poxy deflected goal on the break,city missed plenty of chances was far from a battering.I think tomorrow city will turn on the style and hammer them 3 or 4 nil,ajax are in poor form in a weak league and for me the game in ajax was a freak and city are by far the better team as tomorrow will prove

[bomber01004]

Re: Group D > Nov 6 (Man City, Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Ajax) I fully agree with Nev here.. People are really overestimating Ajax here. The Dutch league is very weak and is nowhere near England and Spain. The gap in talent between those two sides is ridiculous. The Ajax win last time out doesn't surprise me simply because any team is capable of winning a home game in the CL. But now they get to go to England and I can't see this ending well for them. Only worry here is City's injuries so I'll wait for the lineup before playing the game but I'm definitely considering taking the City ML and parlaying it with PSG to lower the juice

[HastGill1]

Re: Group D > Nov 6 (Man City, Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Ajax) To be honest I've read virtually the same thing before every game City have played in Europe, 'City are by far the better team' 'weak opposition' etc etc, but I am yet to see them play well in Europe. I was on them quite heavily in the away game against Ajax as I thought they would have the upper hand at a good price, I was wrong. They struggled to keep the ball for any period of time and looked clueless for most of the game. What has changed!? They now have many more injuries than previously, their main creative player is out (Silva), Lescott, Milner, Rodwell, Richards, Maicon and Kolo Toure are all missing, so thats 4 probable starters out. Their league form is poor by their standards, not losing games but struggling to break down teams at home - beating the -1EH 2 times in 8 competitive games at home, against Sunderland and QPR who are both poor sides. What are they going to do here? They might win but I very, very much doubt it will be convincing talk of 4-0 wins has no basis at all. At this price and with their current form and injuries they really are mug punter material..

[PaulLawrie67]

Re: Group D > Nov 6 (Man City, Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Ajax)

Man City to score in both halves v Ajax evs paddypower Im a city fan and they are not playing well but i think people are thinking ajax are better than they are.They did not batter city,city were all over them in second half till ajax scored from a corner and then scored a poxy deflected goal on the break,city missed plenty of chances was far from a battering.I think tomorrow city will turn on the style and hammer them 3 or 4 nil,ajax are in poor form in a weak league and for me the game in ajax was a freak and city are by far the better team as tomorrow will prove

Hi Nev, It's taken me a few years and alot of heartache, but one thing I'd like to say is NEVER place a bet with your heart. I understand you are a City fan and are proud of the side Mancini has built, however odds of 1.45 for the home win is ridiculous as Aidymac said earlier. I know you have opted to go for the "City to score in both halves" bet at evens, which personally I think offers more value than the straight home win, however without Silva, City do struggle to create the same chances in which they were able to do last season. Aguero has to be on top form along with Tevez as IMO Balotelli, whilst obviously has the talen just does not have the attitude and Dzeko just does not do it for me. I struggle to see any value in this game whatsoever, but all the best of luck with your bets.

[kevshat]

Re: Group D > Nov 6 (Man City, Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Ajax) 4pts Ajax (+1.25AH) to beat Man City 1.92 BetVictor Someone is having a laugh with City being a top price 4/9 for this match. They’re not playing well, injuries are hurting them and they are under all sorts of pressure here so for me it is an obvious pick to take them on here. Even if City do win the emphasis will be all on winning not winning big so I like the look of Ajax +1.25 on the Asian handicap here. City have to push forward at some point in the match which will leave gaps for a young Ajax side to hit them on the break and I can see Ajax getting something out of this match but the beauty of the +1.25 is we get a half win even if City win by one. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/man-city-vs-ajax-betting-ajax-can-take-advantage-of-the-pressure-on-a-struggling-city-side

[nicko]

Re: Group D > Nov 6 (Man City, Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Ajax) Real always look troubled at the back to me. It is one thing keeping a clean sheet in La Liga vs Rayo, Celta, Mallorca and others...not in CL though. The flair forward is always there, with dangers coming to the opposition from all sides. They can score half a dozen vs most teams, but I do not put Dortmund in this group. Will it be a surprise if the Germans score at Bernabeu? Who didn't recently in CL vs Real ? Dortmund will go forward even if they are 2-0 down ( or more ), and they have enough class to score anywhere...If I am wrong, then fingers crossed that Real at least will break me even... Over 3 Goals at 1,75 with bet365 GL

[nicko]

Re: Group D > Nov 6 (Man City, Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Ajax) I wouldn't risk my money on City, even in a double, let alone in a treble at these odds. Ajax are by far the weaker team on paper. Far too many ups and downs this season, no top-class influential players. Plenty of good ones though, who already troubled City, and almost got a point from Dortmund away, which could have changed everything in this Group. Had some inspiring moments vs Real as well...Traditions are to be broken, the great players are gone long ago, but Ajax are in CL almost forever, and that counts too. I can't see them going into this game for a Draw, and we are looking at a very open game IMO. City are a disappointment in CL two seasons now. Mancini is good at winning domestic Leagues ( with the owners providing multi-million buys ). His best achievement so far is a 1/4 Final at Valencia with Inter ( which later, with almost the same backbome under JM won CL ), and it ended in a kick-boxing fight. They have more class entering this game, but they also enter it under more pressure... Overall I see a win by 1 Goal for the hosts, at decent odds, but I can't be bothered. I see many Goals here, and I would have gone for it, yet another great night by Hart can ''kill'' my bet... For now No Bet, in-play only! GL

[kevshat]

Re: Group D > Nov 6 (Man City, Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Ajax) 4pts Borussia Dortmund (+1.25AH) to beat Real Madrid 1.85 Bet365 I think this match could be closer than the odds suggest. Dortmund appear to be no respecters of reputation and they’ll go to the Bernabeu believing they can get a result from the game. I expect there to be goals in this match but all the goal markets are priced up a bit short so I’ll go with Dortmund on the Asians because if this does become a shootout they have the firepower to stay close but they have enough at the back to ensure if they do get beat it is only narrowly. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/real-madrid-vs-borussia-dortmund-betting-dortmund-can-continue-to-impress-in-this-champions-league

[bomber01004]

Re: Group D > Nov 6 (Man City, Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Ajax) Real are always tricky.. i believe they have the quality to destroy any team in the world not named Barcelona if they play real football and not Mourinho football. Real have too much talent to be playing a counter attacking style. The style works for them obviously but I think it stops them from reaching their full potential. It can also become dangerous in games where the opposition have quality like Dortmund here. In the La Liga, you can sit back and invite teams to attack you because these teams are likely not gonna score then you can hit them with devastating counters. But when you play this way against teams like Barca and Dortmund, they have the ability to make you pay. I still think Real wins this by 2 or 3 goals but I wouldn't put any money on it

[Dink]

Re: Group D > Nov 6 (Man City, Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Ajax) I think that City's price is a gift. I expected to see them around 1.3 - 1.35. Ajax is terribad on travels. Still, I don't like the fact that Milner is back. That player might be good for the standards of English national team but he is way below the class that City needs.

[drale]

Re: Group D > Nov 6 (Man City, Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Ajax) city still have strong team even with the injury problems hart zabalata - kompany - nestasic - clichy nasri - toure - barry - j. garcia aguero - tevez

[in2neric]

Re: Group D > Nov 6 (Man City, Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Ajax) For Ajax backers....now come on lads, just be serious. Have you seen ajax how they play in eredivise lately? They are awful, last 2 games they draw with feyenoord 3-3 and lost home with vitesse 0-2. I watched both games and they didn't conviced me at all. For City this will be last chance to qualify from this group. Anyway....my bet will be on City beating Ajax on handicap (1,5)

[Marek_Hamsik]

Re: Group D > Nov 6 (Man City, Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Ajax) Inneric is right...ajax is far from the game where they did win... feyenoord should have trashed them, had a milion chances and pelle did hit a few bars... with tevez and aguero up front city has some serious gunpowder upfront so i will go with city goals... 2 or 3 havent decided yet as far as real and dortmund are concerned Real seems a bit more setled and prepared for the task, dunno about the start lineups, but imo goals are the popular bet in this case as well overs 2,5 or 3,5 maybe the proper bet gl

[stefanos56]

Re: Group D > Nov 6 (Man City, Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Ajax) Well, the City price really is dividing opinion isn't it? Personally, I'm in the 'not touching them at that price' camp. Sure, the Dutch league is weak is comparison to the Premier, but then the English teams (United aside) haven't exactly been pulling up any trees, have they? I personally have also learnt that this talk of 'must-win' games usually just tempts people in to throwing money away. I've fallen for this philosophy in the past and I'm pretty sure it's cost me more than I've gained. Pressure goes both ways, a team can step up and excell, but they can also freeze and feel the panic in the home fans. Having said all that, I do think I have to favour City and unless they can sneak an early-ish goal, it will be a cagey night for them. Aguero seems to have been quiet lately and I'm probably going to take a chance on him to score first. Aguero to score first: 9/2 with Paddypower.

[Aidymac]

Re: Group D > Nov 6 (Man City, Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Ajax)

To be honest I've read virtually the same thing before every game City have played in Europe, 'City are by far the better team' 'weak opposition' etc etc, but I am yet to see them play well in Europe. I was on them quite heavily in the away game against Ajax as I thought they would have the upper hand at a good price, I was wrong. They struggled to keep the ball for any period of time and looked clueless for most of the game. What has changed!? They now have many more injuries than previously, their main creative player is out (Silva), Lescott, Milner, Rodwell, Richards, Maicon and Kolo Toure are all missing, so thats 4 probable starters out. Their league form is poor by their standards, not losing games but struggling to break down teams at home - beating the -1EH 2 times in 8 competitive games at home, against Sunderland and QPR who are both poor sides. What are they going to do here? They might win but I very, very much doubt it will be convincing talk of 4-0 wins has no basis at all. At this price and with their current form and injuries they really are mug punter material..

Great post Hastgill, and i agree with every word. As i already said, let them win at that price, sit back and watch it. Better betting opportunities out there. :ok