October 29 - November 4

[markymark]

Re: October 29 - November 4

Hi Mark

That's some good stuff Regnavetto :) Some of the information may prove quite useful for me. I know that no one will share all their experience and information they use when picking matches as sometimes they have worked for an edge over the market for years and that's understandable but I'm still glad that you've shared some of that info with me and the fellow punters. If any of the other fellow tennis experts would like to add anything to it, I'd love to hear their opinion. Cheers, Mark

[Atko]

Re: October 29 - November 4 There are so many different variables for tennis betting that it's almost impossible to list them all here, but I'll try :lol The most important thing is that you need to know your players. You need to know their strengths, their weaknesses, their best surfaces, the conditions they play best in, motivation, best shots, mental aptitude, how well they serve ... the list goes on. I set myself a rule that I don't take anything in a match where I don't know much about one of the players. I'm fortunate enough to know pretty much all the players in the Top 200 but I sometimes see a match on the main Tour which involves two guys I have limited knowledge on. Resisting the temptation to play God on those matches is vital. You need to know your subject matter, and if there's someone you don't know very well who is playing, take the time out to watch them. Head-to-head record is also helpful, but not vital. Of course, a recent run of wins for one player suggests they have the upper hand but each match is different and surfaces/events can be big clues. However, I'd still say H2H is a big indicator. Look at Juan Martin Del Potro v Alejandro Falla yesterday. Delpo leads the H2H and has recent wins over him. There was only ever one winner there, as Falla hasn't got enough in his game to hurt his opponent, and he's often overawed by the Argentine's power. It's hard to explain but once you have a feel for all the players - and that comes, I'm afraid, with years of watching the sport consistently - do you have an aptitude for working out how matches go. I used to be a big handicap player, but the harsh truth is that it's difficult to make a high profit on those lines. You are playing, often, with odds beneath even money, so you need a high strike rate. This week, without posting here, I've been doing doubles and players to win sets, which has been highly productive. In short, you need to play the odds. In tennis, because there's no draw, it's actually far easier than football to predict a winner. I think it's actually counter-productive these days to go down the handicap route, unless you double a couple of them up. Bear in mind that when, say, Gilles Simon steps on to the court, he needs just to beat Victor Hanescu, not cover a -5 game line. I used to love those lines but not any more. One has to be a lot more choosy. In conclusion, these six points are the best summary I can give you: - know your subject matter inside out, and be able to compare players' strengths and weaknesses. - motivation and mentality are huge factors. - play the odds, look for value - there's little point busting your nut on a 1.3 shot. Make sure you have a staking plan too, and be disciplined with it. - learn to accept a losing bet - YOU WILL NOT WIN THEM ALL. - simplify the bets - going for a player to win or perhaps to take a set is far more straightforward than a game handicap, or even overs/unders. - the most important: trust your instinct - if you know your players, and perhaps fancy the underdog to do something, go with your feeling. Often, a bet can't be explained with good reasoning, but it will win. I hope this helps :ok

[WinningTipster]

Re: October 29 - November 4 1 pick for today: ATP CHALLENGER GENEVA: DE SCHEPPER-BOHLI OVER 20.5 GAMES @ 1.66 on bet365 Kenny de Schepper is a favorite with his huge serve and big game but Bohli surely is a better player from the baseline which will enable him to make it a close match

[Regnavetto]

Re: October 29 - November 4 Murray - Janowicz. Over 19.5 games @ 1.72 Pinnacle These odds are a tad higher than I would have taken them. Like said in an earlier pick, Janowicz is a young, quite limited, but also talented player. Possesses a huge serve and a good forehand to back that up. These two abilities are of huge value on this surface. The young Pole has been fabulous this tournament winning against Kohlschreiber and Cilic. Murray played average in my eyes against PH Mathieu getting the win in and acclimatizing more to the surface in the second set. Hope Janowicz can hold it tight in the first set, or get lucky with the toss to reel in a 4-6 4-6 atleast.

[bubblepower]

Re: October 29 - November 4

I wanted to write a PM to a few of the experts in the tennis section but as I do not have enough posts myself, I've decided to ask that question here. Can the more experienced guys tell me, how you pick the matches you want to play? Is it only form that you look at, the serve of a player, or maybe just pure statistics between given two players? Do you watch the matches yourself or base your predictions on others point of view as well? I used to be quite good at tennis predictions but that was years ago (more than 10 ;) ) and the last few years I wanted to come back to the sport but seems like it's very different to what I remember it to be. There was a time when I had a strike rate of around 80% with odds not lower than 1.50 and it lasted for months, but how do I get back to that ;) ? Where's the best place to gather all the information, do you know any sites that provide match replays or highlights? Thanks for all the support in advance. Mark

I read on another thread that the most important thing to gamble profitably is discipline. no disrespect to anyone here but here is my tuppenniies worth. obviously discipline is important as is moneymanagement but you can have the discipline of a trappist monk if you are betting negative EV YOU WILL LOSE. The only chance we have is to be able to do a better job of pricing an event than our opponents. the only good news is they have to bet all of them we dont. good luck

[Torque]

Re: October 29 - November 4 BNP Paribas Masters - Juan Martin Del Potro to beat Michael Llodra @ 1.27 Betfair Despite the skinny odds, I think Del Potro should be a bit shorter than this. Llodra's prowess on French indoor hard is well known, but even so when Del Potro played him on the same surface in Marseille at the start of the year, he was a comfortable winner. Right now Del Potro is in great form, and has won his last two tournaments. Hopefully he is motivated to make it a hat-trick of wins - a task that should be even more achievable now that Djokovic is out.

[Torque]

Re: October 29 - November 4 BNP Paribas Masters - Juan Monaco to beat Janko Tipsarevic @ 2.56 Betfair There's no doubt that both players will be motivated for this match, as they chase a place at the Tour Finals. Although Tipsarevic is favourite, I think Monaco has a good chance to progress due to the slower conditions. Tipsarevic came through in his last match against Sijsling, but prior to that retired against Simon in Valencia. Monaco beat Dimitrov in the last round, which was a good result as he has been in good form.

[Torque]

Re: October 29 - November 4 BNP Paribas Masters - Milos Raonic to beat Sam Querrey @ 1.86 >Betfair I think this will be a close match, as is often the case when two big servers meet. They played each other earlier this year at Wimbledon, in a match that featured 3 tie-breaks during the four sets that were played. Raonic got through a tight match in the last round against Chardy, and Querrey prevailed against Djokovic despite being bagelled in the first set. Because Querrey beat Djokovic I think he is overrated here, and I also think Raonic is underrated because he struggled against Chardy. However, now that he has had a match to get used to conditions, I expect him to perform much better. He will see this as a chance to get to the latter stages of a Masters tournament, especially now that Murray is also out. The bagel Querrey suffered against Djokovic, regardless of the fact that he won, makes me wary of backing him here.

[Torque]

Re: October 29 - November 4 WTA Tournament of Champions - Su Wei Hsieh to beat Roberta Vinci @ 4.30 >Betfair Both these players were beaten convincingly by Wozniacki, but I found Vinci's performance particularly disappointing. I don't think she should be such a big favourite against Hsieh, who knows that she needs to win this match to give herself a chance of progressing from the group stages. Vinci already has a win, and so perhaps won't be as motivated in this match as a defeat will not hurt her as much as it will hurt Hsieh.

[Torque]

Re: October 29 - November 4 BNP Paribas Masters - David Ferrer to beat Stanislas Wawrinka @ 1.47 >Betfair I think Ferrer will really fancy his chances this week, now that so many of the big names have dropped out. He is generally a very consistent and reliable player, and won the Valencia Open last week, which shows his form is good. Wawrinka has had some joy in this match-up in the past, but I think the slower conditions in this tournament will help to cement Ferrer's advantage. Also, whilst Wawrinka has the talent to win this match, he can sometimes be found wanting in his application. Ferrer is a worthy favourite, and I think he will grind Wawrinka down for the win.

[slider24]

Re: October 29 - November 4

I read on another thread that the most important thing to gamble profitably is discipline. no disrespect to anyone here but here is my tuppenniies worth. obviously discipline is important as is moneymanagement but you can have the discipline of a trappist monk if you are betting negative EV YOU WILL LOSE. The only chance we have is to be able to do a better job of pricing an event than our opponents. the only good news is they have to bet all of them we dont. good luck

If you mean that betting on favourites constantly is a bad idea I agree. I only ever bet on underdogs and my success rate this year has been about 65-70%, so my ROI is very high. This week Granollers (7/2) and Barrientos (9/2) and Taro Daniel (7/4) have come in (Haven't had as much time to post these days so you'll have to take my word), so my advice is go with who you think will win, regardless of the odds. Every day in tennis- from ATP to Challengers - I would say 30-40 % of the victors are underdogs, so go with your instinct and don't be cowed by their odds. Especially on the Challenger tour, which can be a potential goldmine due to the collisions of faded but esteemed ATP players, and up and coming Futures talents. The bookies consistently go with the more established player and you can get some great odds. Timing is everything I've learned. Forget so and so being a better player etc, it's all down to timing. Think of how a defeat or victory would fit into the context of a player's season/career and you can often predict beforehand what's going to happen. As Atko says though, these things can only be gleaned after watching tennis for a long long time. It's only then that 'crazy' results start to make sense.

[CzechPunter]

Re: October 29 - November 4 Back Gilles Simon to beat Tomas Berdych for a 2/10 stake at 3.62 with Pinnacle Yes, that is right. I am laying off my pre-tournament outright here, as I simply cannot trust Berdych to deliver in this particular situation. Simon has been playing well so far and has so much more to play for here, so I expect him to be very competitive and I certainly would not be surprised by seeing him walking away as the winner at the end of the day. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/simon-vs-berdych-betting-gilles-simon-looks-value-against-the-in-form-czech Back Michael Llodra to beat Sam Querrey for a 2/10 stake at 2.10 with Pinnacle Would actually make the Frenchman a small favourite in all honesty. The thing is, you simply have to take Querrey's wins with a grain of salt. He is going to trouble Llodra, but the Frenchman loves Paris and he is going to play like there is no tomorrow, as this might be his last real chance to get something from his singles career. Anything above evens looks good to me here. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/llodra-vs-querrey-betting-the-local-hero-has-what-it-takes-to-upset-sam-querrey

[Striker]

Re: October 29 - November 4 Monica Niculescu v Karolina Pliskova [10am] Under 21.5 games @ 1.8 [bet 365]..Stake,1pt Niculescu has been impressing me recently with her performance on the Itf circuit,and should take this match with relative ease

[Striker]

Re: October 29 - November 4 16 games:clap

[Torque]

Re: October 29 - November 4 WTA Tournament of Champions - Jie Zheng to beat Sofia Arvidsson @ 3.20 >Betfair I think Arvidsson is far too short here. She is a late replacement in the group for Kirilenko, who had to pull out through illness. I'm not sure how ready she will be for this - at this late stage in the competition, even as a reserve, she probably thought her season was over. Also, this match is a dead rubber, so it's hard to know how each player will approach it. Although Zheng has lost both her matches, she has had plenty of court time and should be very comfortable with conditions. The same can't be said for Arvidsson, and I think Zheng will want to get a win on the board. Arvidsson will no doubt be swinging freely, and whilst this could mean she plays very well, equally this might mean she plays badly. I don't think winning or losing will matter as much to her as it will to Zheng, and in this kind of situation I think it's best to side with the underdog.

[Torque]

Re: October 29 - November 4 WTA Tournament of Champions - Su-Wei Hsieh to beat Daniela Hantuchova @ 3.05 >Betfair Another dead rubber in Sofia, and I think Hsieh could edge this. Hantuchova pushed Wozniacki all the way in her last match, giving everything in an attempt to make the knockout stages. Having fallen short despite those best efforts, she may lack motivation heading into this match. Although Hsieh also has nothing to play for, she really hasn't turned up so far at this tournament, and so will surely want to go out on a high note if possible.

[0rtega]

Re: October 29 - November 4

Back Gilles Simon to beat Tomas Berdych for a 2/10 stake at 3.62 with Pinnacle Yes, that is right. I am laying off my pre-tournament outright here, as I simply cannot trust Berdych to deliver in this particular situation. Simon has been playing well so far and has so much more to play for here, so I expect him to be very competitive and I certainly would not be surprised by seeing him walking away as the winner at the end of the day. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/simon-vs-berdych-betting-gilles-simon-looks-value-against-the-in-form-czech Back Michael Llodra to beat Sam Querrey for a 2/10 stake at 2.10 with Pinnacle Would actually make the Frenchman a small favourite in all honesty. The thing is, you simply have to take Querrey's wins with a grain of salt. He is going to trouble Llodra, but the Frenchman loves Paris and he is going to play like there is no tomorrow, as this might be his last real chance to get something from his singles career. Anything above evens looks good to me here. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/llodra-vs-querrey-betting-the-local-hero-has-what-it-takes-to-upset-sam-querrey

These tips were right on the spot! Kudos to you Czech Punter.

[CzechPunter]

Re: October 29 - November 4 Back Serbia to beat Czech Republic for a 2/10 stake at 2.63 with Pinnacle Well, I am not sure that the Czech team deserves to be priced at such a short price in all honesty. Petra Kvitova is not playing well right now and has some health issues, while I simply cannot trust Safarova to bear the flag and get two points from the singles. The doubles should obviously be a one-sided affair, but it might be a tough task for the Czechs to get there. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/serbia-vs-czech-republic-betting-the-serbian-team-can-upset-the-favourites

[ronnierocket147]

Re: October 29 - November 4 Simon to beat Janowicz and Ferrer to beat Llodra looks a good double today.... anyone agree?

[nev]

Re: October 29 - November 4 Think it looks good to

[bubblepower]

Re: October 29 - November 4 this janowicz lad reminds me of when I first saw boris becker at queens a star in the making.Any way i think his run ends today.hes said he isnt sleeping and eating well and i thought he looked very wobbly 1st set yesterday.I make the 1.67ish Simon far too big. good luck

[Torque]

Re: October 29 - November 4 BNP Paribas Masters - David Ferrer to beat Michael Llodra @ 1.48 >Betfair I think it's worth siding with the consistency and class of Ferrer in this match, as I think he will find a way to win against Llodra where others have failed. Both players have plenty of experience and nous, but Ferrer is the more tenacious player. This is a real chance for him to win a big tournament, and whilst Llodra will also be highly motivated as he is in the twilight of his career and these are his favourite conditions, I favour Ferrer to halt Llodra's run and reach the final.

[Fizruhas]

Re: October 29 - November 4 Ferer - Janowicz Under 22.5 2.1@unibet Impressive run by Janowicz, but i think this will be too big for him, David looks for his first ATP 1000 titlle also, so he probably won't waste his chance. he looked very good vs tsonga, had many break points. I think that Ferrer will step to this Final with all guns open, and he's just to big for a new star Janowicz. Under here.

[markymark]

Re: October 29 - November 4

There are so many different variables for tennis betting that it's almost impossible to list them all here' date=' but I'll try :lolI hope this helps :ok[/quote'] Very useful post mate!!!!! Thank you for the advice Atko. I will definitely use most of that information and hopefully it will allow me to get back on the right track. Cheers, Mark