October 29 - November 4

[CzechPunter]

Let's go! :ok

[CzechPunter]

Re: October 29 - November 4 Back Novak Djokovic to win ATP Paris for a 2/10 stake at 2.60 with Pinnacle Last big tournament for this season and I cannot see past Novak Djokovic in all honesty. He wants to get to the top badly and is coming into this event on the back of some tremendous performances in Asia, so he should be able to go all the way, especially with Federer and Murray both struggling a little bit with various issues. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/atp-paris-betting-novak-djokovic-can-win-yet-another-important-title-this-week Back Tomas Berdych to win the 1st quarter for a 1/10 stake at 4.00 with Bet365 Speaking of Federer - well, he might actually be in for a very tough ride. Tomas Berdych has been the better player of the two in recent weeks and I think that he should not be priced at 4.00 to win the first quarter. It should be a race between the two only - and Berdych seems to have Federer's number in these kinds of situations. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/atp-paris-betting-tomas-berdych-has-what-it-takes-to-win-the-first-quarter

[WinningTipster]

Re: October 29 - November 4 1 pick for today for me: ATP PARIS: SIMON TO DEFEAT BAGHDATIS @ 1.74 on betfair Despite good recent form I am not sure about Baghdatis level of play and fitness. Simon playing at home has a good counterattacking game to force Baghdatis to make unforced errors.

[sportxtipster]

Re: October 29 - November 4 Czech, bet won already with the quarter as Federer forfait! Well done! :))

[Emiliano]

Re: October 29 - November 4 :)SIMON is out of form since ages, i am on opposide,thnx;)

[Bardach]

Re: October 29 - November 4 Klizan to defeat Seppi 2.8 Both player in last weeks have won one indoor tournament on hard surface. Seppi made it in Moscow, Klizan in St. Petersburg. IMO both players are on even level, so I'm highly suprised by the odds. Klizan is much less experienced player, but he has great year and advanced at 29th place in ATP Ranking. Seppi is 7 places higher. Slovak has 9-5 indoor record, and 16-11 on hard. Seppi just 42-51 indoor, and 81-110 on hard. They never played in atp tournaments, but 2 years ago Seppi won in Challenger easily 6-3 6-1

[Regnavetto]

Re: October 29 - November 4 Ramos vs Lopez. Over 21.5 games. Odds: 1.72 @ Pinnacle This line is a joke to be quite frank. I think this match will be tighter than the odds suggest, Lopez won't win that easily. Both players aren't really in great form right now. Ramos has quite a good serve, which suits well with this surface, even if Ramos prefers the clay more. I don't think Lopez will have a lot of chances on return, also because I rate his rally skills quite low. On the other hand Ramos shouldn't trouble Lopez too much on serve, although he does have the advantage being a lefty. The serve going outside on the ad court will be received on Ramos' forehand. Lopez should win this but he has already lost to Ramos earlier this year, and to be honest I think there is far more value in the over than in ML. Don't see any of the winning under this line.

[Regnavetto]

Re: October 29 - November 4 Youznhy (-5.5) to beat Granollers. Odds: 2.66 @ Pinnacle Sweet, sweet odds. I just don't know how Granollers can trouble Youzhny. He was absolutely terrible against Dolgopolov. Also I'm doubting his fitness at the moment. On this surface Youzhny can bash Granollers off the court. Granollers' second serves will be punished immediately. I would be surprised if he wins more than 50% of his second serves. Granollers will be exposed to constant pressure and will make a lot of unforced errors. Great value on this one.

[bobix]

Re: October 29 - November 4

Ramos vs Lopez. Over 21.5 games. Odds: 1.72 @ Pinnacle This line is a joke to be quite frank. I think this match will be tighter than the odds suggest, Lopez won't win that easily. Both players aren't really in great form right now. Ramos has quite a good serve, which suits well with this surface, even if Ramos prefers the clay more. I don't think Lopez will have a lot of chances on return, also because I rate his rally skills quite low. On the other hand Ramos shouldn't trouble Lopez too much on serve, although he does have the advantage being a lefty. The serve going outside on the ad court will be received on Ramos' forehand. Lopez should win this but he has already lost to Ramos earlier this year, and to be honest I think there is far more value in the over than in ML. Don't see any of the winning under this line.

Great tip, thanks so much! ;)

[Torque]

Re: October 29 - November 4 BNP Paribas Masters - Pablo Andujar to beat Benoit Paire @ 5.40 >Betfair I think this is worth a small play. Paire is a worthy favourite based on recent form, but I'm not sure he should be such a strong favourite. Both players have a similar ranking, and when they met earlier this year in Serbia the match went to three sets. I think its possible this match will be closer than the odds suggest.

[Regnavetto]

Re: October 29 - November 4 Igor Sijsling to beat Alexandr Dolgopolov. Odds: 2.98 @ Pinnacle. Call me crazy, but these odds represent pure value in my eyes. Sijsling loves this surface with his good serve and forehand backed up by a good approach/net play. His form isn't really that impressing but he's had two Q matches to adjust, winning against Lacko and owning Benjamin Becker. On the other hand we have the erratic Dolgopolov. Sure he should win this match, and sure he is the better player. Because of his unorthodox playing style, he can be winning the title against Haas one week, and losing 3-6 1-6 to Stepanek the week following that. This also has to do with his Gilbert's Syndrome. Now Valencia - Paris isn't far apart, but he did had have to do some travelling in the last day or two. And Dolgopolov is someone that needs the best preparation possible otherwise he could be losing to Roger-Vasselin or Falla. Don't get me wrong, don't bet your house on it. But this is a nice value bet if you ask me.

[Regnavetto]

Re: October 29 - November 4 Cilic vs Janowicz. Over 22.5 games @ 1.80 Pinnacle. Some nice value here. At these odds, I had expected the line to be 23.5, so I'm pouncing on it. It's funny that not a lot of people are familiar with Janowicz. This guy is just 21 years old and holds the 69th place. He's rapidly growing, but still hasn't really broken through. This tournament is ideal for him. He loves this surface, has a good serve backed up with a good forehand. The rest is rather average to be honest. However he's had very good results, winning against Tursunov and Serra in Q and against Kohlschreiber yesterday. All in straight sets. Kohli wasn't playing at his best but certainly credits go to Kohlschreiber for winning this match. On the other hand we have Cilic who has been quite erratic himself the last few weeks, winning good matches against Verdasco and Klizan, but losing to the likes of Marius Copil and Ivan Dodig. Even if these guys were playing above their standards, Cilic still had to beat them. On this surface I can't see both players breaking serve quite easily as their return qualities aren't the best either. Can easily see a 7-6 6-4 at the least here.

[Regnavetto]

Re: October 29 - November 4 Cilic is such a f#tard

[Torque]

Re: October 29 - November 4 WTA Tournament of Champions - Jie Zheng to beat Tsvetana Pironkova @ 2.54 >Betfair I think this match could go either way, so odds against on Zheng looks a good bet. She leads the h2h and beat Pironkova when they met earlier in the year. Neither player is in great form right now, and although Pironkova will have home advantage, I still think Zheng has a good chance in this match.

[Torque]

Re: October 29 - November 4 ATP BNP Paribas Masters - Carlos Berlocq to beat Stanislas Wawrinka @ 6.60 Betfair This is a speculative punt, and that's reflected in the odds. Wawrinka should certainly be a strong favourite, as Berlocq much prefers to play on clay. Despite that though, he managed to beat Istomin in the last round, even though he was a break down in the first set. The fact that he has played a match in these conditions could help him, as this is Wawrinka's first match of the tournament. I think Berlocq will be motivated to give a good account of himself in this match, and could possibly catch Wawrinka cold.

[Torque]

Re: October 29 - November 4 WTA Tournament of Champions - Su Wei Hsieh to beat Caroline Wozniacki @ 5.80 >Betfair I don't think Wozniacki should be such a strong favourite here. Hsieh kept it close for the first two sets when they met at the China Open a few weeks ago, not to mention that she herself has been in good form, winning the title in Guangzhou during the Asian swing. I think its also possible that fatigue could be an issue for Wozniacki, as she has finished the season strongly and gone deep in most of the tournaments she has played.

[Torque]

Re: October 29 - November 4 ATP BNP Paribas Masters - Julien Benneteau to beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga @ 4.20 Betfair Another favourite that I think is worth opposing. Benneteau has always been competitive in this match-up, and has had the benefit of a match already to get used to the conditions. He's also been in good form recently, and got to the final of the Malaysian Open. When you factor in Tsonga's retirement in his last match, and the fact that he may have one eye on the Tour Finals next week, I think this is a bet worth taking.

[nev]

Re: October 29 - November 4 5pts Berdych v Seppi under 20.5 games boylesports at 20/23 Really fancy this played twice this year and both went under with Berdych winning,Seppi didnt play well yesterday and was really lucky to come through in tight long match.Think a fresh Berdych should get at least one break in each set which should be enough wit his great serve

[Regnavetto]

Re: October 29 - November 4 Dimitrov to beat Monaco @2.11 Pinnacle Get these odds while they're hot. Surely they'll have to drop before the match starts. Yes Monaco is ranked 10th and H2H is 2-0 (1 hardcourt outdoor, 1 clay) and he has a quarter final to defend. Even with these reasons I think picking Dimitrov is the only way to go. Monaco isn't in a very good form, he hasn't won a match after winning to the same Dimitrov in Tokyo. The talented Dimitrov however has played 3 matches and thus rythm being fully adapted on this surface now. This surface also suits his good serve and ground strokes. A good Monaco could frustrate Dimitrov into errors. But I think his form isn't good enough and Dimitrov will put too much pressure on the Argentinian. Juicy odds, and I expected odds to be reversed to be honested.

[Regnavetto]

Re: October 29 - November 4

ATP BNP Paribas Masters - Julien Benneteau to beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga @ 4.20 Betfair Another favourite that I think is worth opposing. Benneteau has always been competitive in this match-up, and has had the benefit of a match already to get used to the conditions. He's also been in good form recently, and got to the final of the Malaysian Open. When you factor in Tsonga's retirement in his last match, and the fact that he may have one eye on the Tour Finals next week, I think this is a bet worth taking.

So close bro, good pick anyway. Was on the following side.

[Torque]

Re: October 29 - November 4 Cheers Regnavetto. Tough day for my picks - no winners and on the wrong side of two final set tie-breaks. Still, I'm sure it will even itself out :ok

[0rtega]

Re: October 29 - November 4 Michael Lodra vs John Isner Any tips for over or under 24.5 games? Need some good tips for today's matchups.

[Merc]

Re: October 29 - November 4

Michael Lodra vs John Isner Any tips for over or under 24.5 games? Need some good tips for today's matchups.

Rather would skip this one. Isner really unpredictable in last matches. Due to his serve you would say an over but I would rather go for Llodra game handicap. I think the French will be pumped up for this one.

[Torque]

Re: October 29 - November 4 WTA Tournament of Champions - Jie Zheng to beat Nadia Petrova @ 4.70 Betfair On first glance, this should be a stroll in the park for Petrova. She leads the h2h comprehensively, and is in better form than Zheng. However, Zheng has has already played in this tournament in what was a competitive match against Pironkova, and that could help her here. If Petrova is on song then Zheng probably wont have much of a chance, but I think she is a streaky player that can sometimes struggle with injury and so I certainly wouldn't want to back her in this match as such a strong favourite.

[nev]

Re: October 29 - November 4 over 24.5 in Isner v Llodra at 5/6 skybet this will be etremely tight game between two very poor returners can see it going 3 sets and even if it dont it can come up in two sets as could easily see no breaks of serve

[Torque]

Re: October 29 - November 4 WTA Tournament of Champions - Roberta Vinci to beat Caroline Wozniacki @ 3.10 Betfair I think Vinci is underrated here, especially when you consider that she beat Wozniacki in Canada last year. She has been playing well recently, and beat Hantuchova yesterday with something to spare. She should give Wozniacki a far stiffer test than Hsieh did yesterday, and I still think fatigue could be an issue for Wozniacki as she has played so much recently.

[markymark]

Re: October 29 - November 4 I wanted to write a PM to a few of the experts in the tennis section but as I do not have enough posts myself, I've decided to ask that question here. Can the more experienced guys tell me, how you pick the matches you want to play? Is it only form that you look at, the serve of a player, or maybe just pure statistics between given two players? Do you watch the matches yourself or base your predictions on others point of view as well? I used to be quite good at tennis predictions but that was years ago (more than 10 ;) ) and the last few years I wanted to come back to the sport but seems like it's very different to what I remember it to be. There was a time when I had a strike rate of around 80% with odds not lower than 1.50 and it lasted for months, but how do I get back to that ;) ? Where's the best place to gather all the information, do you know any sites that provide match replays or highlights? Thanks for all the support in advance. Mark

[Regnavetto]

Re: October 29 - November 4

-snip-

Hi Mark, Don't know if you consider me one of the experts here but I would like to give my 2 cents here. I don't want to give everything away to the public but for sure there are some guidelines I stick to. First of all form is something that I find quite important going into a pick. But there are a lot of other things that I take into account. Things like surface, mental issues are very important. I also weigh in stats, like unforced errors, winners. But also first service percentages and how many percent they win on their first and how vulnerable they are on their second and many more free and stats available to the public. Don't forget motivation (for example homecrowd, points that have to be defended, personal head-to-head , personal issues etc.) Also head to head is very important, it's logical to say if someone has a great h2h against an opponent, they know how to defeat the opponent on the other side of the net. One great guideline I can give you is mismatches. I have a SWOT analysis of the most of the top 100 players. SWOT stands for Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats. I try to define which aspects apply for each of those elements. If a player is great on serve but very weak on return, take a Karlovic for example and another player is quite strong on serve but also quite strong on return, but has weaknesses that include weak variation on shot selection, spread or groundstrokes for example, I could still choose to opt for an under 22.5. (take into account that the market is often on an over on lines like 23.5 of even 24.5 on relatively low odds). Also odds are very important taking into account. What odds do I expect? Or how often do I estimate that a certain pick could go through. And with that estimation calculate how often it will happen according to the given odds. There are multiple other aspects that I think of before I go into a pick. These are just a few aspects I think of. I don't want and it would cost too much time to elaborate on already given or other existing aspects to explain in just a few moments. My picks that I post here are just a mere summary of some points on which I hope to convince fellow punters that I want to help, to trust me. I hope I could give you some insights and please come back for more picks from me or other maybe much better punters like Atko, CzechPunter and many more punters available here. Good luck bro.

[Regnavetto]

Re: October 29 - November 4 Wow, my apologies for the lay-out of my post. Realized it after I posted it.

[Regnavetto]

Re: October 29 - November 4 O yeah: Bankroll management and discipline is key to any given punter. You're a smart guy if you beat bookies with a ROI over 10%. Most people think that a good punter has picks that deliver everytime, but you're going to be dissapointed if you think so.