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Tedthewolf

Multi Bet Thread - Lucky 15's, 31's, Yankees etc...

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Re: Lucky 15 Thread - Sat 27th Oct Sextons House~Much better run lto back up in trip will suite. Songcraft~On a decent mark here and could go very well for the boys in blue. Grissom~Hot & Cold performer well capable on a good day but has been poor of late trainers horses running well. George Benjamin~Better than shown of late has bounced back to form in the past!

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Re: Lucky 15 Thread - Sat 27th Oct Last chance to gauge their eyes out on the flat today lads. 3.25 Wincanton Diamond Harry - classy, classy horse on his day. Won the Hennessy in 2010 but is very fragile and has never fulfilled his promise since. Not seen since pulling up at Aintree last year but, crucially, seems to go well fresh. Handicapper has slashed him 6lb for recent defeat which drops him down to 150 - just enough to compete at this lower level. Noel Fehily came down to the yard and sat on him midweek and got a good feel. 2.35 Doncaster Communicator - ran well on last run at Chester and was only pipped late on into second. No shame in that as the winner, Tominator, is a useful stayer and showed so when third in Cesarewitch soon after, before hacking up in a novices' hurdle somewhere. Andrew Balding has said Communicator has been laid out for the race, 70 day break looks a plus against some potentially leggy rivals, and drop back to his best trip could elicit improvement. 3.10 Doncaster York Glory - was fourth behind today's favourite Jack Dexter last time but is 20/1 whereas the fav is 4/1 here. I thus think he's overpriced. He was returning from a mini break that day and may strip fitter for the run here. He is slightly worse off at the weights but the Ryan yard do not go tilting at windmills and he wouldnt be in Doncaster today if he didnt have viable claims. They have caused Pattern level shocks in sprints this year before (Tiddliwinks, Duke of York Stakes) 3.45 Doncaster Lious The Pious - Graham Lee can hopefully end an excellent debut season in fitting fashion with a win here. Horse ran a cracker at York last time on first run for David O'Meara and although up 4lb, could improve for the return to 7f, over which he was beaten by a head last year. £1 lucky 15 with Paddypower, with prices of 7/1 Diamond Harry, 14/1 Communicator, 14/1 York Glory and 7/1 Louis The Pious, possible returns £20,700

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Re: Lucky 15 Thread - Sat 27th Oct

DONCASTER 15:10 LISTED STAKES 6f 10-11-2012 15:10 Win or E/W Each Way Odds: 1/5 places 1,2,3 Doc Hay @ 14/1 (GP)
SANDOWN 15:35 HANDICAP CHASE 3m 110y 10-11-2012 15:35 Win or E/W Each Way Odds: 1/4 places 1,2,3 Old Wigmore @ 11/1 (GP)
WINCANTON 15:25 HANDICAP CHASE 3m 1f 110y mbs.gif 10-11-2012 15:25 Win or E/W Each Way Odds: 1/4 places 1,2,3 Diamond Harry @ 7/1 (GP)
DONCASTER 15:45 HANDICAP (0-105) 7f 10-11-2012 15:45 Win or E/W Each Way Odds: 1/4 places 1,2,3,4 Prince Of Johanne @ 25/1 (GP)
Diamond Harry always goes well fresh, and is above these on his day. He has won the Hennessey and if ready today 7/1 looks very big. Old Wigmore has taken a well needed break, and effectively runs off 115 today taking off the claimers weight, 7 pounds lower than last win. Doc Hay is a course winner that has already won a Listed event, and don't think we saw it's best behind Jack Dexter last time out. Prince Of Johanne down to a very nice mark, only 2 pounds higher than when winning the Royal Hunt Cup. Best of luck today folks. £0.50p e/w Lucky 15 returns just under £26,000. Worth a crack!

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Re: Lucky 15 Thread - Sat 27th Oct EW Lucky 140 Win: Tempest River 17/2 SJ 325 Win: Ballyallia Man 12/1 SJ 1235 Win: Kings Lad 6/1 SJ 315 Kel: Shisha Threesixty 17/2 SJ At Wincanton, Tempest River was thought good enough to take her place in the Mares race at the Festival and then ran well to finish 6th to Kells Belle, unexposed. Ballyallia Man has had a spin over hurdles to put him right for this and Tom Georges have needed a run, protected his mark and could run well from the bottom of the handicap. In the opening race Mr Mole looks pretty solid but i liked the way Kings Lad ran last time and was in the mix when tipping up, he could be one to follow this season. At Kelso Lucinda Russell saddles Shisha Threesixty who has been a little disappointing, should find handicapping more to his liking and was staying on well last time out and could go close today.

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Re: Lucky 15 Thread - Sat 27th Oct Each-Way Lucky 15 @ Bet365: - 12.20 Doncaster: She's A Character @ 8/1 Three pounds below last winning mark, down in class, decent 3rd place in a better race here at Doncaster recently, a track which she really loves as she is three course wins from six starts. - 14.00 Doncaster: Dorcas Lane @ 9/1 Just a head beaten in a Newmarket Listed race one month ago. She finished 2nd over 12f in a Listed race in her penultimate start as well. She won earlier the year a Listed race over 10f though. Cheekpieces could help her to improve a bit again as so should be the slightly better ground helpful today. Trainer and jockey relishing an excellent strikerate. - 15.10 Doncaster: Katla @ 16/1 Well up to this class, wasn't too bad in form lately, won impressively a Listed race at the Curragh beating Maarek in 2nd. She's been places another two times in pattern class this year and is versatile regarding the ground. Trainer Grogan with 33% SR (2/6) in GB. - 15.45 Doncaster: Colonel Mak @ 25/1 One pound below his last winning mark (over 6f here at Doncaster earlier this year), wasn't at his best in recent number of month but should give good account here today. Likes the ground and Gibbons booked positive.

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Re: Lucky 15 Thread - Sat 27th Oct ok here goes 12.45 Sandown - Foxbridge 3/1 - from my trends thread, Henderson starting this one off in a conditional race this season and showede enough for me last year that it can be a player today in a race that many wont get home on sticky ground. Decent rider in McGrath 2.50 Wincanton - Prospect wells 9/4 - in my horses to keep an eye on this season. Not sure exactly what its final distance will be but can start off on a winning streak in a race Nicholls likes to win in the past. He has 3 runners here today and Walsh rides 3.25 Wincanton - Michel Le Bon 4/1 - lightly raced stayer can win 1st time up and go onto better things this season, another for walsh/nicholls 1.40 Wincanton - Violin Davis 5/1 - won this last year and now moved to HAry Fry from Nicholls. Mahon rides the horse again to follow up last years win.

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Re: Lucky 15 Thread - Sat 27th Oct Seven runners today 105 pts invested Returns BH~13.12 Aidy~0 Boulder~13.75 Fin~0 Ted~73.82 Bowlsey~0 Robert~0 100.69 Returned 4.31 Loss Winners hard to find BH the only one to find one. On a positive note only a small loss on the day thanks mainly to Teds two placer at 50/1 & 33/1 Boulder also had two decent placer. Reasonable turn out the day lets keep it going next week a feel a big return is imminent.

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Re: Lucky 15 Thread - Sat 27th Oct

Going to run this Fri to Sun this week so to include the Cheltenham three day meet . So get your L15's in ere lads:ok
Good idea Ted, i'm there on Saturday, but will put something up for the 3 days

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Re: Lucky 15 Thread - Cheltenham Nov Meet Just can't find any big priced horses tomorow:loon:\ so its a 1pt win l15 for me

Selection Selection Details Result
1
Horse Racing
CHELTENHAM
16:05 HANDICAP CHASE 3m 110y
16th of Nov 2012 4:05 pm
Win or E/W
Jamsie Hall @ 6/1 (GP)
Ran well here over shorter lto. Trainers horses running well in Ireland. Hard race but looks to have a decent chance as he is still improving.
Pending

Selection Selection Details Result
2
Horse Racing
CHELTENHAM
15:00 CROSS COUNTRY CHASE 3m 7f
16th of Nov 2012 3:00 pm
Win or E/W
Balthazar King @ 3/1 (GP)
Loves Cheltenham was going well enough in similar race to this last Dec until taking wrong course just before the last. Trainer could have a big day today.
Pending

Selection Selection Details Result
3
Horse Racing
CHELTENHAM
13:50 HANDICAP CHASE 2m
16th of Nov 2012 1:50 pm
Win or E/W
Astracad @ 5/1 (GP)
Goes ok at the track trainer will have him spot on for seasonal reapperance.
Pending

Selection Selection Details Result
4
Horse Racing
CHELTENHAM
13:15 NOVICES CHASE 2m 4f 110y
16th of Nov 2012 1:15 pm
Win or E/W
Fingal Bay @ 5/4 (GP)
A lot expected off this horse this season. Decent chase debut llto but i am very worried about the Pipe trained horse but hopefully he will need the run tomorrow and a longer trip would be ideal for his horse so with any luck that will push the card in favour of FB!
Pending

Stake and Return Details
Bet placed at 15th of Nov 2012 7:04 pm Total Stake £15.00
Bet type Lucky 15 (To Win) Tax@Tax free 0
Number of lines 15 Total stake due £15.00
Stake per line £1.00 Freebets Redeemed £0.00
Channel Internet Total amount paid £15.00
Number of win lines -
Potential Returns £909.00

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Re: Lucky 15 Thread - Cheltenham Nov Meet My reasons are in the jumps thread for the following L15 on Friday at Cheltenham 4.10 Swing Bill 12/1 3.35 Teak 16/1 1.50 Shooters Wood 13/2 3.00 Balthazar King 3/1 all prices with B365

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Re: Lucky 15 Thread - Cheltenham Nov Meet 1.50 Cheltenham - Astracad @ 4/1 Although on the face of it, Nigel Twiston-Davies' top-weight doesn't have much room for manouvre off his current handicap mark, if he's going to defy it, it seems likely to come in a race of this ilk. First of all, conditions are spot on for him as two miles around Cheltenham on fairly decent ground appears to be what he wants to be at his best (2 out of 6 wins have come here and 5 out of 6 on better than soft ground). Secondly, the field here is not as strong as those he's been used to competing in. There are various issues with the majority of runners here and the favourite is an absolute headcase which proves how questionable this field is. Given that many of these have questions to answer, the Twiston-Davies runner looks pretty solid as he also runs well fresh (yard can get them ready). He won off 138 here last December when rallying to get back up on the line but was possibly value for a bit more than the winning margin as he's a horse who doesn't do much at all in front. He looked to have the race in the bag at the second last but idled before finishing powerfully up the run-in once headed. The yard's horses were out of form on the whole in the spring and this one ran with little zest in the Grand Annual when jumping poorly prior to staying on late in the day. Was clear of the rest when 2nd to Edgardo Sol at Aintree and made no mistake when clearly the best in at the weights at Perth on his final start of the season (still showing tendency to idle). He'll have to be given a good ride here but Sam Twiston-Davies obviously knows the horse well and I get the feeling he won't have to be at his very best to take this which makes him a decent betting proposition in this. 3.00 Cheltenham - Sizing Australia @ 5/1 I feel dirty for opposing one of my favourite horses in Balthazar King here but you get the feeling that he's best fresh and this comes less than a month since scoring on the regulation course here. Six of his ten career successes have come after a break and I think his price creates a touch of value. Henry de Bromhead's runner has won over this course previously and has a solid chance at the weights here. He proved himself as in good shape with a promising run over 2 miles over hurdles recently (a typical prep for cross countries) and he goes better when the ground has less juice in it as well. His record in cross country races here reads 320314 and was in touch when badly hampered for the one disappointing effort. He gave 6lbs to the aforementioned Philip Hobbs runner at the 2012 festival whereas they run off level weights here and with that combined with the point regarding that one being best fresh suggests to me that my selection can get the better of him today. There are other dangers in the field but de Bromhead's horse looks sure to be right there once more and with the recent encouragement over hurdles, I take him to win this. 3.35 Cheltenham - Buck Magic @ 10/1 Very competitive race over 2m5f but Neil Mulholland's runner is more interesting than most having had just five starts under rules so far in his career. He won a bumper and a novice hurdle two years ago but wasn't seen since until returning with a fine 3rd at Wincanton in February of this year. The form of the race is strong with Lovcen winning it off 130 (now rated 150) and the runner-up won next time out. In two starts subsequently, Buck Magic has just shaped as if a testing three-mile race was possibly a little too taxing for him. He was a good 4th at Newbury before shaping as a non-stayer at Exeter in May. He travelled as well as anything and made progress to be close up at 3 out but couldn't find any more and finished a fading 21l 6th. The way he moved through the race was encouraging, however, and a strongly-run 2m5f around here could prove absolutely ideal. The better ground looks another positive given both of his wins came on a sound surface and there looks more to come off a fair mark for a horse who has proved himself as capable fresh also. Tricky race to solve but I fancy this one to go close. 4.05 Cheltenham - Pentiffic @ 10/1 Venetia Williams' horses are going really well at present and that bodes well for a big run from her chaser here with the very capable amateur Will Biddick on board. He'd be one of the better riders in the contest and should have a willing partner in this horse. He's done pretty well on the whole for this yard but hasn't managed to find a win in handicap company yet. However, his mark seems fair enough and it shouldn't be long before he gets into the winner's enclosure. Fingers crossed it can be this afternoon as he appears to have a solid chance here. He finished 3rd here in January off 2lbs lower before running no sort of race at Ayr next time out. However, he bounced back to chase home a decent type from the Emma Lavelle yard and then ran a very bold race in the Grimthorpe at Doncaster off 7lbs higher than today. On that form he's fairly well-treated as he was leading at the last when coming to grief despite having gone off very hard in front and although he was tired, he'd still have been battling out the finish with two good horses. His mark has dropped back down subsequently but his 9th at the Cheltenham festival wasn't a bad effort at all given he again went off quickly with another rival and was always going to struggle to maintain the gallop. He was still disputing the lead at 3 out, however, when he blundered, and soon was passed by horses. Was a weak 20/1 shot in the market on his seasonal reappearance, suggesting he'd need the run, and ran as if that was the case. However, the early market signs are positive for this race which bodes well and if he doesn't go mad out in front he should put in a bold effort with a run this season under his belt. Win Lucky 15 (Bet365)

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Re: Lucky 15 Thread - Cheltenham Nov Meet

Whats with all the mental fonts Rob? Cracking post Rupert, you deserve a winner there mate:clap
Cheers mate. Have struggled to find the time to do some proper study of late but the racing hasn't been good enough to entice me to do it until today! No surprise to see my BBOTD performance go through the floor :rollin

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Re: Lucky 15 Thread - Cheltenham Nov Meet 150 Ch: Lucys Legend 25/1 Out of the handicap but unexposed having had only 4 starts over fences, big price now. 220 Ch: Duke Of Navan 20/1 Nicky Richards novice won easily last time out and could be useful, Davy Russell rides. 3.35 Ch: Ambrose Princess 40/1 Ran well in a good race last time here which was stronger than this, Stable still in good nick. 4.05 Ch: Pentiffic 10/1 Massive horse, dropping down to a fair mark now for the in form Venetia Williams EW Lucky with Stan James

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Re: Lucky 15 Thread - Cheltenham Nov Meet My Cheltenham e/w lucky 15 for today, all prices with bet365: 1.50 Wetak @ 18/1 French chaser who wasn't at his best in his last two races, but finished a good second at Auteuil before that in October. Most recent Ascot form probably to ignore as it came over hurdles and he's a much better chaser. He likes soft ground and might be underestimated here of a low mark. 3.00 Sizing Australia @ 11/2 He runs usually well at Cheltenham, won in 2011 here at the Festival the Glenfarclas Handicap Chase and gave a decent reappearance at Naas recently over hurdles. He may have to find a bit to the market leader but he should be definitely in the shake up and should be fit and primed to go well here today. 3.35 Coffee @ 16/1 He won very well two Handicaps in autumn, taking advantage of a low handicap mark and also done well for the step up in trip. He was disappointing in his most recent start, fading worryingly in the closing stages but that might be a form to ignore considering how well he ran before. If he can find back to the form he showed when winning so well at Worcester and Uttoxeter he'll be in with a big shout I feel. I also like the jockey booking of Maurice Linehan who has a very healthy strike rate for Jonjo O'Neill. 4.05 Bescot Springs @ 16/1 Ran a very fine race at Kelso in first time visor on heavy ground three weeks ago. Cheltenham ground is better today which should suit him as his best performances came mainly on good or good to soft ground. He's a decent chaser and looks well in the weights and has at least solid place claims.

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Re: Lucky 15 Thread - Cheltenham Nov Meet

My reasons are in the jumps thread for the following L15 on Friday at Cheltenham 4.10 Swing Bill 12/1 3.35 Teak 16/1 1.50 Shooters Wood 13/2 3.00 Balthazar King 3/1 all prices with B365
Nice double bowlesy:clap Will work to all out later.

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Re: Lucky 15 Thread - Cheltenham Nov Meet

Nice double bowlesy:clap Will work to all out later.
cheers, is it 94.84pts (79.84 + 15 stake?) yep a good day, Uncle Junior was close to being on that list but 2 winners will do at 14's and 7's

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Re: Lucky 15 Thread - Cheltenham Nov Meet 16.Nov 201221:48Cheltenham (Saturday) 13:55Outright Betting, King Fontaine, 25/1Open 16.Nov 2012 21:48Cheltenham (Saturday) 14:35Outright Betting, Divers, 20/1Open 16.Nov 2012 21:48Cheltenham (Saturday) 15:05Outright Betting, Kayf Aramis, 28/1Open 16.Nov 2012 21:48Cheltenham (Saturday) 15:40Outright Betting, Kings Destiny, 9/1Open SJ BOG Lucky15 £0.50 EW, 15 bets, £15.00 (Pot.Ret. £99,113.47) Open SJ BOG Normal service resumes for me tomorrow with mainly big priced horses put up!

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Re: Lucky 15 Thread - Cheltenham Nov Meet Five players today. 75 pts invested Returns Bowlesy~94.84 :clap BTR~21.00 Robert~2.75 BH~0 Ted~0 Pts Returned~118.59 Profit~43.59 :loon:ok Well great start to the three day meeting and we get in profit for the day which is a first. Star of the show was stat man and Cheltenham guru Bowlesy with two nice priced winners & a placer nice one old son. Nice to see BTR very impressive write ups rewarded with a double figure priced winner for which he got double. Robert got a few pts returned for his placer while TTW & BH get "must do better" on their report. Day two tomorrow lets see a few more participants & plenty more winners:ok

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Re: Lucky 15 Thread - Cheltenham Nov Meet Will join in for tomorrow too: L15 with Betfred 13.55 - Cheltenham - Teaforthree @ 7/1 My first selection is Teaforthree, still lighty raced as an 8yo he won 3 times last season, the final of those being the NH chase at Cheltenham. This is his first start since but i'm sure he wouldnt be entered in a race like this if he wasnt fit. Towards the top of the weights off a mark of 146 but a handy 10lb taken off by young claimer Patrick Corbett. Will get the trip having won over further and course form is obviously a positive. 14.35 - Cheltenham - Grand Crus @ 5/2 Top class hurdler who took to chasing very quickly notching up 3 impressive victories on first 3 starts over fences. Disspointed in RSA at Cheltenham but can be forgiven for that and doesnt look harshly treated off a mark of 153. 2/2 over C&D and won on back of break last couple of seasons so that shouldnt be an issue either. Worthy favourite. 15.05 - Cheltenham - Lovcen @ 11/2 I think that Alan King has some pretty interesting runners at Cheltenham tomorrow with Lovcen being one of them. Progressed well over hurdles last season ending the season with a good 4th in the Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham before going on to win at Aintree beating Fingal Bay. 5th on return last month off this mark, but shaped with promise and will have come on for the run. Has to concede a fair amount of weight all round but i feel he is classy enough to do so. 15.40 - Cheltenham - Tanerko Emery @ 5/1 Theres a few that take my fancy in his but Tanerko Emery's first start for David Pipe was very impressive and now venturing into handicaps i feel he is interesting. Been handed a mark of 112 and it would be fairly dissapointing if he didnt prove a fair bit better than that over time. Still very unexposed and tops my shortlist.

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Re: Lucky 15 Thread - Cheltenham Nov Meet

CHELTENHAM 15:05 HANDICAP HURDLE 3m 1f 110y mbs.gif 17-11-2012 15:05 Win or E/W Each Way Odds: 1/4 places 1,2,3 Lovcen @ 5/1 (GP)
CHELTENHAM 14:35 PADDY POWER GOLD CUP 2m 4f 110y mbs.gif 17-11-2012 14:35 Win or E/W Each Way Odds: 1/4 places 1,2,3,4,5 Grands Crus @ 9/4 (GP)
CHELTENHAM 13:55 HANDICAP CHASE 3m 3f 110y mbs.gif 17-11-2012 13:55 Win or E/W Each Way Odds: 1/4 places 1,2,3,4 Bradley @ 11/2 (GP)
CHELTENHAM 13:20 NOVICES CHASE 3m 110y mbs.gif 17-11-2012 13:20 Win or E/W Each Way Odds: 1/4 places 1,2 Our Father @ 4/1 (GP) WIN L15 please Selections based on what i believe have the best chances of winning these races. Its a very dififcult day but i like course form and i've written about these in the jumps thread. Decided to go with the win L15 tomorrow rather than a large priced ew bet

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Re: Lucky 15 Thread - Cheltenham Nov Meet Ill have a go, but I do warn you that Im generally pretty rubbish with them! All Cheltenham and with Stan James. Win Only: 1.55 Bradley 11/2 - Ran really well LTO on his come back and should appreciate this return to further. 2.35 Quantitiveasing 25/1 - Bit of a long shot but ran really well in this on seasonal debut last year & whilst he is a fair bit high in the weights, this might just be the time to catch him. 3.05 Lovcen 9/2 - Same as Bradley really, ran well enough on soft ground last time out and I expect him to be better for it today. Looks to have a bit of class about him based on last years runs in good novice events. 3.40 Ifbutandwhynot 8/1 - The form of his last 2 runs has worked out really well with the horses closest to him going on to win or place NTO in decent races. I expect him to be travelling well before being unleashed up the hill. Total outlay £15 Potential Return £13161.50 Fingers crossed! :hope

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