Datapunter Posted March 4, 2005 Author Share Posted March 4, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System iforbet, I simply try to get the best possible odds matched, without changing the total stake. So if it looks like i'm not getting matched i may take lower odds but with the same total stake. Same if the stake is partially matched, take lower odds for the remaining part but the total amout staked remains the same. If there is a situation that i'm not matched at a level that is well above the average price available on the market it is simply no bet. This has everything to do with managing risk. As a matter of personal choice i control howmuch i risk losing. So the possible return depends on how things go. ( the reverse would be to control the profit and take whatever risk, read stake, is neccesary ) For the actual size of my stakes check your PM. I removed the name to the service you mentined, on PL you need prior permission from Paul Ross before posting a link. I know 1x2betting has an agreement but the service you mentioned does not. You are of course welcome to exchange info by PM in full detail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted March 8, 2005 Author Share Posted March 8, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System Well well, the last bet on Rangers did get matched at 1.15 , unfortunately a last minute equaliser makes it a loser. 2 more bets : 2005-03-08 20:30 E Stirling v Gretna : Gretna 10 @ 1.18 not yet matched currently the price is at 1.17 , may take 1.18 but no lower 2005-03-09 20:30 Club Brugge v Strombeek : Club Brugge 10 @ 1.18 not yet matched again , i may take 1.17 possibly 1.16 but no lower You may have read elsewhere my PC blew up and i had to get a new one, well, i'm back on my old spare one because my new hard-disk crashed. So don't have Excell right now ( or my spreadsheets ) and i'll update the system result when i got everything installed again. Yes :@ indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted March 8, 2005 Author Share Posted March 8, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System had to leave the house before the Gretna bet got matched and descided to let it ride on 1.18. go on, have a guess.... it did not get matched and obviously Gretna won 4 - 0 some days the wind blows with you, and some days it blows against you :eyes gonna let Brugge ride on 1.18 for now, should get matched tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted March 9, 2005 Author Share Posted March 9, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System Brugge got matched overnight at 1.18(1.171) :hope Normally i don't really care about the matches but this ones a bit different. Althou i've been living in Amsterdam for quite a few years i am actually Flemish and my father was a big Brugge fan. So go on Brugge, kick some Brussels ass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted March 9, 2005 Author Share Posted March 9, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System so Rangers -10 and Brugge a winner at +1,71 profit now at +3.18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted March 10, 2005 Author Share Posted March 10, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System for next weekend 4 matches on saturday, 3 on sunday, will post the details sometime friday night late. ( i'm trying to get matched at some top prices ;) :lol ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted March 12, 2005 Author Share Posted March 12, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System this weekend : 2005-03-12 15:00 Trabzonspor v Sakaryaspor : Trabzonspor 10 @ 1.21 2005-03-12 16:00 Gretna v Queen's Park : Gretna 10 @ 1.18 2005-03-12 16:00 Peterhead v Albion : Peterhead 10 @ 1.22 2005-03-12 16:00 Celtic v Dunfermline : Celtic 10 @ 1.12 2005-03-13 18:00 Fenerbahce v Genclerbirligi : Fenerbahce 10 @ 1.25 2005-03-13 15:00 Dundee v Rangers : Rangers 10 @ 1.32 not much matched, i'll do an update tomorrow, Joe also got PSV to beat Den Haag at about 1.28, not on at Betfair so giving that one a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted March 12, 2005 Author Share Posted March 12, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System first match about to kick-off, all prices for saturday matched as posted or even a bit better, ( sunday i'm just waiting for part of Fenerbache to be matched ) i got parts of the stake matched at different price levels so will post the average price i got when i do the results. :drums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zbrochu Posted March 13, 2005 Share Posted March 13, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System Thanks for tip. I gonna buy it. Two questions: 1) Do you use ONLY betfair? 2) According to this statement ... "Still shows a pretty solid yield of about 5%, after 161 bets managed to almost tripple the bank." You probably built plateu 3-4 times (assuming 10% staking). Am I right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted March 13, 2005 Author Share Posted March 13, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System Results 2005-03-12 15:00 Trabzonspor 1.215(1.204) = +2.04 2005-03-12 16:00 Gretna 1.185(1.175) = +1.75 2005-03-12 16:00 Peterhead 1.225 = -10 2005-03-12 16:00 Celtic 1.120(1.114) = +1.14 2005-03-13 15:00 Rangers 1.317(1.301) = +3.01 2005-03-13 18:00 Fenerbahce 1.250(1.237) = +2.37 Total staked 210 Total returned 213.5033333 Yield 1.01668254 2% Winners 18 Loosers 3 Strike Rate 86% Current bank 103.5033333 Profit/Loss 3.503333333 one loser for a very marginal profit on the weekend. hi, zbrochu, yes this is using Betfair only at 5% commission, in the spreadsheet you can see the actual stakes used, at the beginning i changed my mind a few times and then increased the level of the stake as the bank grew. Since posting here the stake has been at the same level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted March 15, 2005 Author Share Posted March 15, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System Couple of nicely priced ones for tonight and tomorrow : 2005-03-15 20:45 Chelsea v West Brom : Chelsea 10 @ 1.20 2005-03-16 20:45 Inverness CT v Celtic : Celtic 10 @ 1.29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted March 16, 2005 Author Share Posted March 16, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System Seems something is going on with the Celtic game, price has now moved up to 1.39. Joe advised not to take the bet anymore. I was already matched yesterday so i'm letting it ride. Chelsea a winner btw. +1.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dietcoke Posted March 16, 2005 Share Posted March 16, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System Alex Deacon in RFO made Celtic 1.65 via their ratings system. Probably explains some of the move Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted March 16, 2005 Author Share Posted March 16, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System and another winner, lovely :tongue2 Celtic +2.75 Total staked 230 Total returned 238.1583333 Yield 1.035471014 4% Winners 20 Loosers 3 Strike Rate 87% Current bank 108.1583333 Profit/Loss 8.158333333 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted March 17, 2005 Author Share Posted March 17, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System Next weekend we'll have 6 on saturday and 3 on sunday, all at a price between 1.20 - 1.30 , details friday late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted March 18, 2005 Author Share Posted March 18, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System for the weekend we have : 2005-03-19 13:30 Dundee Utd v Celtic : Celtic 10 @ 1.25 2005-03-19 15:30 B Munich v H Rostock : B Munich 10 @ 1.26 2005-03-19 16:00 Chelsea v C Palace : Chelsea 10 @ 1.26 2005-03-19 16:00 Man Utd v Fulham : Man Utd 10 @ 1.30 2005-03-19 20:00 Anderlecht v Strombeek : Anderlecht 10 @ 1.21 2005-03-19 20:00 Club Brugge v Lokeren : Club Brugge 10 @ 1.26 2005-03-20 14:30 AEK v Ergotelis : AEK(Athens) 10 @ 1.22 2005-03-20 16:00 Motherwell v Rangers : Rangers 10 @ 1.26 2005-03-20 18:00 Galatasaray v Ankaras : Galatasaray 10 @ 1.26 Nice efficient use of the bank here :lol Nothing much matched yet but all prices are about as close as it gets, so most will probably get matched at the prices indicated. will check tomorrow at 13:00 Now Joe sends out an email usually 2 days in advance listing the bookies with the best prices at that moment, just had a look and the price i'm getting at Betfair just about matches best price at the bookies. Difference on the above bets is never more than 0.02 ( best price bookies = 1.20 the Betfair price usually 1.18 - 1.22 after commission ) Joe's yield is currently at 5.24% , my yield since September is at 5.4%, so seems to be a confirmation that Betfair is matching the bookies best prices. Lets see what the weekend brings... :drums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted March 19, 2005 Author Share Posted March 19, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System sorry for the delay, price update : Celtic 10 @ 1.25 matched (1.237) B Munich 10 @ 1.26 matched (1.247) Chelsea 10 @ 1.26 matched (1.247) Man Utd 10 @ 1.30 matched (1.285) Anderlecht 10 @ 1.21 partially matched at 1.21 but price now down to 1.18 :\ Club Brugge 10 @ 1.26 should get matched any time now at 1.25 AEK(Athens) 10 @ 1.22 matched (1.209) Rangers 10 @ 1.26 not yet matched, holding out for the 1.26, price now at 1.24 Galatasaray 10 @ 1.26 not yet matched, holding out for the 1.26, price now at 1.24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zbrochu Posted March 20, 2005 Share Posted March 20, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System I am going to start using Joe's strategy but I have doubts connected with MM. I wonder how you separate own bets from those from this strategy. Do you have 2 different bankrolls and run separate archieves etc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted March 20, 2005 Author Share Posted March 20, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System Short answer : yes i have 2 records and 2 banks, a personal one and the one posted here. Money management is very much a matter of personal choice. Simply level staking at a low % of the bank is generally considered as low risk and the best thing any newcomer can do. It is also considered by most as a reference point to check how well alternative staking plans do. For this thread i have chosen level stakes at 10% simply because it is low risk, proven and anyone can relate to it. It is generally considered prudent to stake no more than 2 - 5% of the bank per bet. I have chosen 10% here because this system involves favourites at low prices with a high strike rate. So the 10% does not increase the level of risk too much. In my personal record you'll find different values. This is because at the start i changed my mind about the level of staking a couple of times. You'll see a long period of stakes between 100 - 200 units. After some time the system proved itself and i became more confident. Confidence based on personal experiance and money actually in my account. So i started increasing the level of the stake as the bank grew. I now increase my stake such that it's always at least 10% of the current bank. My personal bank since september has now grown from 1000 to 3000 units and since today my level stake is 350 units. Joe's system comes with a document explaining all the details and a complete analysis of staking and the risks involved. Thats your starting point. Carefully read that and then simply make a choice and stick with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted March 20, 2005 Author Share Posted March 20, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System Eventually Anderlecht got matched at 1.19 and for Galatasaray i took 1.24. Shame about Brugge going 0-0, nevertheless some nice profit for the weekend. Celtic +2.375 B Munich +2.47 Chelsea +2.47 Man Utd +2.85 Anderlecht +1.805 Club Brugge -10 :cry AEK(Athens) +2.09 Rangers +2.47 Galatasaray +2.28 Total staked 320.00 Total returned 336.97 Yield 1.053026042 5% Winners 28 Loosers 4 Strike Rate 88% Current bank 116.97 Profit/Loss +16.97 :beer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted March 23, 2005 Author Share Posted March 23, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +5% ) next saturday 7 international matches coming up, will probably post details friday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zbrochu Posted March 24, 2005 Share Posted March 24, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +5% ) I am unable to buy this pdf since such a strange message appears: Unable to authorize. Please make corrections and try again. Some possible reasons for decline are: -- Incorrect expiration date. -- Incorrect or missing validation code. -- Country or state does not match bank record. -- Zip or postal code does not match bank record. -- Card has history of chargebacks. -- Card has reached its spending limit. -- You have made too many recent purchases. -- You are using an anonymous proxy service. -- You are not on the same continent as your bank. -- You are not on the same continent as your billing address. I have checked everything several times and I am sure everything is ok. I cannot pay trough Paypal as well as they do not include the country I come from. I thought that someone could but it for me - I would transfer him money (as the first) via Moneybookers. Please , I am dying to read this stuff :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted March 24, 2005 Author Share Posted March 24, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +5% ) Other that making good money from this system i have no affiliation/agreement/involvement with Joe or the sites he runs so cannot help you direct. I'm sure if you email Joe he'll soon sort things out. You can reach him at the email adress mentioned on the site. Or send a message using his Punters Lounge mail : Joe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zbrochu Posted March 24, 2005 Share Posted March 24, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +5% ) OK, thanks for quick reply. I've just sent it. Good luck with the weekend bets! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted March 25, 2005 Author Share Posted March 25, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +5% ) for the weekend we have 2005-03-26 16:00 England v N Ireland : England 10 @ 1.14 unmatched 2005-03-26 17:00 Liechtenstein v Russia : Russia 10 @ 1.17 unmatched 2005-03-26 18:00 Poland v Azerbaijan : Poland 10 @ 1.21(1.199) matched 2005-03-26 19:00 Turkey v Albania : Turkey 10 @ 1.28(1.266) matched 2005-03-26 20:00 Denmark v Kazakhstan : Denmark 10 @ 1.08 unmatched 2005-03-26 20:45 Italy v Scotland : Italy 10 @ 1.23(1.218) matched 2005-03-27 21:00 Brazil v Peru : Brazil 10 @ 1.25(1.237) matched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted March 26, 2005 Author Share Posted March 26, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +5% ) all prices matched overnight as posted above :ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted March 26, 2005 Author Share Posted March 26, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +5% ) all winners today :tongue2 come on Brazil, make it a full house :nana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted March 27, 2005 Author Share Posted March 27, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +5% ) braziiiiill la la - la la - la la - lalaaaa brazil la la la la :nana 2005-03-26 16:00 England +1.33 2005-03-26 17:00 Russia +1.615 2005-03-26 18:00 Poland +1.995 2005-03-26 19:00 Turkey +2.66 2005-03-26 20:00 Denmark +0.76 2005-03-26 20:45 Italy +2.185 2005-03-27 21:00 Brazil +2.375 Total staked 390.00 Total returned 419.89 Yield 1.076636752 8% Winners 35 Loosers 4 Strike Rate 90% Current bank 129.89 Profit/Loss +29.89 this is going jolly well indeed, :cow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zbrochu Posted March 29, 2005 Share Posted March 29, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +5% ) Datapunter has exceeded their stored private messages quota and can not accept further messages until they clear some space. :) Any picks for tommorow? (Joe seems to be on holiday) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted March 29, 2005 Author Share Posted March 29, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +5% ) sorry, cleared my mailbox now. for tomorrow we have 3 internationals: 2005-03-30 20:00 Poland v N. Ireland : Poland 10 @ 1.23 2005-03-30 20:30 Switzerland v Cyprus : Switzerland 10 @ 1.23 2005-03-30 20:30 Greece v Albania : Greece 10 @ 1.25 may have to drop the price on these a bit, prices seem to be getting somewhat shorter. Joe has also listed these : Czech Republic to beat Andorra 1.057 Netherlands to beat Armenia 1.05 Latvia to beat Luxembourg 1.07 England to beat Azerbaijan 1.048 Belgium to beat San Marino 1.05 Croatia to beat Malta 1.057 As you can see these prices are very short nevertheless the system would indicate them as valid entries since even at these prices value exists. I however don't feel comfortable with these. Risk 10 to gain 0.5 just doesn't seem right to me. If one of them goes the wrong way i'd kick myself. So i will not bet on these even if mathematically i should include them. You will have to make your own mind up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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