Racing For Rupert

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Racing For Rupert 1.45 Goodwood - 3pts win Story Writer @ 6/1 (Hills) 2.05 Newmarket - 2pts win Bold Sniper @ 9/1 (Ladbrokes) 2.55 Goodwood - 2pts win The Confessor @ 9/2 (Bet365)

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Re: Racing For Rupert 1.45 Goodwood - 3pts win Story Writer @ 6/1 (Hills) Favourite looks short here. Will enjoy the extra two furlongs but made hard work of beating a horse who subsequently ran a shocker at Bath in the week and this track might not be totally ideal. This horse was progressive last year and shaped okay on seasonal reappearance. Ought to build on that with fitness now on his side and has the combination of speed for this track and stamina to get him home. The short-price of the favourite makes this an appealing second favourite and I fancy him to land the spoils. 2.05 Newmarket - 2pts win Bold Sniper @ 9/1 (Ladbrokes) This trip is slightly on the short side you'd have to say but the 1m1f here will take a bit of getting so you're at least guaranteed to be with a horse who will finish over the yardage. Disappointed when last seen but that can be forgiven as a rare blip in my eyes and looks less exposed here than most. Sir Michael Stoute's four year olds are always ones to follow and with Ryan Moore on board I can see him going very well indeed. 2.55 Goodwood - 2pts win The Confessor @ 9/2 (Bet365) Henry Candy's runner goes well fresh and enjoys downhill tracks and quick ground. Conditions, therefore are spot on today and in a small field I can see him dominating the race from the front. Is a course winner, can blast out and get them at it in behind. Can be excused on soft ground at the end of last year and the yard have had recent winners. This race looks tailor-made for him and can land the spoils.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Racing For Rupert Urghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

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Re: Racing For Rupert 3.50 Newmarket - 1pt e/w Night of Thunder @ 40/1 (Bet365) Obviously this is a big punt but you can get decent-priced places in this race and I just thought this horse had half a chance of sneaking into the frame. At the end of the day he was sent off at 11/4 when competing with Kingman when last seen and was impressive last year. Was no match for the winner on that day but he's entitled to come on for that and the extra furlong is another big plus for him. Will take something special to reverse that form but last year's form reads well and it wouldn't be the biggest shock if he were to sneak into the top three.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Racing For Rupert Merry Christmas.

[kev2oo9]

Re: Racing For Rupert Brilliant :) Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Racing For Rupert Good job I had a second look at the card! I had it down as a match between Kingman and Australia really but wasn't bowled over by Toormore or War Command so there looked some value for the frame. Didn't really expect him to win but oh well...glad he did given a frustrating 2nd and 3rd earlier in the day!

[kev2oo9]

Re: Racing For Rupert It's the ones you just hope that they land or scrape a place at decent odds that give you a better feeling , enjoy :) Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Racing For Rupert Jumps: Bets: 343 Wins: 46 Placed: 77 Pts Staked: 584.5pts Pts Returned: 619pts P/L: +34.5pts Flat: Bets: 292 Wins: 36 Placed: 63 Pts Staked: 543pts Pts Returned: 540pts P/L: -3pts Overall: +31.5pts Mixed bag since the last update but thankfully landing the 2000 Guineas winner puts things in a decent light. Hopefully hit the black with the flat shortly and move on!

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Racing For Rupert 3.25 Leopardstown - 1pt win Ballybacka Queen @ 20/1 (Ladbrokes) 4.15 Ludlow - 2pts win Oyster Shell @ 8/1 (BetVictor) 4.25 Leopardstown - 2pt win Versilia Gal @ 20/1 (Sportingbet)

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Racing For Rupert 3.25 Leopardstown - 1pt win Ballybacka Queen @ 20/1 (Ladbrokes) Outsider of the party here and perhaps more exposed than these but would be far shorter if she hadn't run a bad one in the fillies mile last backend when she last saw a racecourse. The ground was perhaps a bit lively there and she went off hard to lead that field and ended up dropping back through them (majority of those who came to the fore were held up) but her form before that entitles her to plenty of respect here. Was a game type who performed consistently and the strength of her runs were good with horses in front and behind franking the form. Has a break to overcome here and that poor effort to put behind her but the ground should suit, as will a mile and just looks worth chancing at a big price. 4.15 Ludlow - 2pts win Oyster Shell @ 8/1 (BetVictor) Has consistent form around here and runs off the same mark as when beaten a length here back in March. That came after a short break so perhaps needed it and despite not being disgraced in two runs afterwards the yard weren't firing as they are now and they may have just been a little subdued. The Ascot run was sound but I would have expected more at Haydock. I think it's worth forgiving that effort now the yard are in better form and returning to the venue he seems to run best at. The good ground helps and he should be bang there at the finish with possibly improvement still to come over fences. 4.25 Leopardstown - 2pt win Versilia Gal @ 20/1 (Sportingbet) Looks a huge price to me coming from a good draw and looking like she's coming into form after two starts to sharpen her up this season. Won under similar conditions at Sligo last season off a 2lb higher mark so there are no issues with her current mark and although failing to fire next time in a race better than this, she ran better than the bare result over an insufficient 5f at Navan next time. Will have needed the run on her first start of this campaign but shaped better last time when 4th at Sligo and that should put her right for this afternoon. Will enjoy the conditions, is off a fair mark and is drawn well. 20/1 seems a bit of an insult but it may be that the bookies know something I don't.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Racing For Rupert 2.05 Newbury - 2pts win Mount Athos @ 3/1 (Bet365) 2.40 Newbury - 2pts win Fort Knox @ 9/1 (Bet365)

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Re: Racing For Rupert 2.05 Newbury - 2pts win Mount Athos @ 3/1 (Bet365) This horse has been a bit disappointing for me in the past when I've sided with him but this looks the perfect opportunity for him to get his head back in front. He dips into listed class - a race where he's one of the highest rated horses in the field and has won over this c&d. The ground is good for him and was only beaten three lengths in a Group 1 over in Meydan when last seen. He can often get going too late so will need a good test here but that is another thing that looks set up for him today. In Batallion, Sky Hunter and Brass Ring there's plenty of early pace in the field that should play to the strengths of Marco Botti's charge. The yard are going perfectly well and the last time this horse dropped into listed class he was beaten a head in a race that didn't play to his strengths at Goodwood behind an all-the-way winner. That was also under a penalty that he doesn't saddle today and I'd be disappointed if he doesn't go very close at least this afternoon. 2.40 Newbury - 2pts win Fort Knox @ 9/1 (Bet365) It's somewhat difficult to assess this horse entering his first handicap but he's run well enough on occasion in black type races and although not the most consistent, there's reason to believe he'll run a big race here. He won his maiden here from a couple of useful types on his second start and then won again on his seasonal reappearance last year in a listed race beating some decent yardsticks who are rated around the 100-mark. Struggled in the Irish Guineas next time and also flopped at the same venue on his penultimate run of the season too. I'm not going to be too harsh on that and he signed off with a solid effort when third behind two rock solid Group performers in Sruthan and Big Break. He's probably not thrown in off 104 but makes his debut for Charlie Appleby after a break which could suit him too. Won fresh last season and wasn't beaten far off a three month absence in August too. Perhaps fresh is the time to catch him and a stiff seven furlongs is suitable. There's no-one you'd rather have on board than Ryan Moore and should go well.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Racing For Rupert Should have been 2-2 today. Mount Athos did it nicely and Fort Knox found all sorts of trouble under Moore and came home from nowhere for second, like a steam train. Real shame.

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Re: Racing For Rupert 2.10 Epsom - 2pts win Air Pilot @ 8/1 (Hills) 4.00 Epsom - 2pts win Taghrooda @ 9/2 (Hills)

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Re: Racing For Rupert 2.10 Epsom - 2pts win Air Pilot @ 8/1 (Hills) Any form with the progressive Clever Cookie is pretty useful and this one bumped into that rival at the start of his winning sequence. A 1 3/4l length defeat by that one reads well now off a mark of 83 and he got off the mark at Thirsk last time, clinging on after travelling strongly. Shapes as if a strongly run affair over 1m2f may prove even better for him and he looks to have the tactical speed to act around here. Gets in at the bottom of the weights and is totally unexposed. Pulled clear with one other when winning his maiden and that one benefited from the step up in trip (fine chance to win in another race today). This is a step forward into competitive handicap company but there's plenty of reason to believe that this is within his grasp. 4.00 Epsom - 2pts win Taghrooda @ 9/2 (Hills) A lot of people are knocking this filly's form which hasn't stacked up all that well but she could only beat what was put in front of her and she did it in fine style - powering clear to make it 2-2 upped to 1m2f last time out. Looks an ideal Epsom type with the speed to challenge and the finishing kick to the line. The step up to 1m4f ought to be no concern whatsoever and although there are a few in with chances here I really like the look of this challenger and with slight question marks over the stamina of the Irish 1000 Guineas winner (ran as if she'd get it that day, however) I'm siding with the John Gosden-trained daughter of Sea The Stars to replicate her father's winning effort in her equivalent Epsom race.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Racing For Rupert Another near 2-2. Air Pilot pulled well clear with another rival but unfortunately couldn't live with that one in the closing stages. As for Taghrooda...whoosh.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Racing For Rupert 1.35 Epsom - 2pts win Black Shadow @ 7/1 (Hills) 4.50 Epsom - 2pts win Miss Marjurie @ 10/1 (Ladbrokes)

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Racing For Rupert 1.35 Epsom - 2pts win Black Shadow @ 7/1 (Hills) Looks to be plenty of pace on here and I sort of hope that this one doesn't get involved in a speed dual having made all last time. However, that was a small field and he didn't lead prior to that race. Showed plenty of stamina when staying on dourly to success that day and a good solid gallop here should play to his strengths. Doesn't look badly handicapped on his 2nd to Honour Bound (third hacked up next time to be rated 91). On that evidence looks capable off this sort of mark and is very unexposed. Looks a lively contender if handling the track. 4.50 Epsom - 2pts win Miss Marjurie @ 10/1 (Ladbrokes) Started last season well before hitting a bit of a dry patch but has resumed with good efforts at the end of last season and was narrowly denied on her reappearance run, and looks set to be competitive in this. Wasn't suited by the way the race was run at Newmarket on her final run of 2013 and was only a half length behind the winner when second there over 1m4f when last seen. That may have brought her on a bit further and is totally unexposed at this trip which is clearly ideal. Has only been nudged up 3lbs for that second in a decent race and fingers crossed she can step up again on it.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Racing For Rupert Another first and a second! Black Shadow ran well but Miss Marjurie dots up...travelled very well, cornered beautifully and wasn't for catching when booted for home. Go on!

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Re: Racing For Rupert Jumps: Bets: 344 Wins: 46 Placed: 77 Pts Staked: 586.5pts Pts Returned: 619pts P/L: +32.5pts Flat: Bets: 300 Wins: 39 Placed: 67 Pts Staked: 558pts Pts Returned: 573pts P/L: +15pts Overall: +47.5pts An all green show! Been a long time coming. Could have been even better given they've been running very well recently. Taking a bit more of a back seat and sticking to the better racing seems to be helping a bit. Form of last six runners being 122121 and at odds of 7/2, 9/1, 8/1, 5/1, 7/1 and 10/1 - got to be happy with that. Long may it continue!

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Racing For Rupert 3.05 Doncaster - 1pt win Yasir @ 17/2 (VC) 4.15 Doncaster - 2pts win Picture Dealer @ 9/1 (Bet365) 4.50 Doncaster - 1pt win Millkwood @ 12/1 (Bet365)

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Re: Racing For Rupert 3.05 Doncaster - 1pt win Yasir @ 17/2 (VC) Very consistent type and has form that ties in with the favourite here. May do well to reverse that form even at the improved weights but at the prices is worth chancing at a much bigger price. Did well to keep galloping that day at Redcar despite coming extremely wide in the straight and many of those who finished at the head of affairs were held up (this one was up there throughout) so to stick on like he did was creditable. Has a good apprentice rider on board and this course will suit. Uncomplicated type and should be in the mix. 4.15 Doncaster - 2pts win Picture Dealer @ 9/1 (Bet365) This horse has run well on both occasions since joining his new yard and his effort at Newmarket last time can be marked up a bit. Didn't get the clearest of runs but was coming home fairly well in a hot 0-105 handicap. This is a slight drop in grade and I think the track will really suit him. Shaped well when finishing midfield on his seasonal return at York and now should be physically spot on for this. Still a young animal at the age of 5 and looks more than capable of getting involved now with conditions to suit. 4.50 Doncaster - 1pt win Millkwood @ 12/1 (Bet365) Although a maiden, I think this is a big price for John Davies' runner. He's extremely consistent and has run twenty times but many of those came over sprint trips and they were always unlikely to be a permanent fixture for a horse with stamina in his pedigree. Has only run once over a mile - when a close 3rd at Redcar on soft ground behind a thriving type and that was on his first start with a hood applied. Couldn't go the early pace at Catterick last time (as many can't) and that sharp track just looked totally against him that day. Returns to a mile on a galloping track this time with a long straight and I just think conditions could be bang on for him today and I hope he can belatedly get off the mark.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Racing For Rupert Things didn't really pan out ideally for any of those but still in decent nick to hit Ascot so fingers crossed all goes to plan this week! Yasir suffered from the way the race was run - needs a solid gallop to run off as he's extremely one-paced and a blanket finish not ideal over 1m6f! Picture Dealer couldn't get involved from the rear and Millkwood's momentum was just checked when he lacked a clear run but didn't pick up well enough afterwards to suggest he'd have won probably. Still a good effort in 3rd. Can't wait for tomorrow. A couple of bets confirmed and a couple of races I'm certainly leaving alone so just need to have another look at the others and will have them up tonight I would think.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Racing For Rupert Got a bit distracted with the football so selections to come in the morning.

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Re: Racing For Rupert 2.30 Ascot - 1pt e/w Side Glance @ 33/1 (Ladbrokes) 3.05 Ascot - 2pts win The Wow Signal @ 13/2 (BetVictor) 3.45 Ascot - 2pts win Shea Shea @ 5/1 (Bet365) 5.00 Ascot - 1pt win Suraj @ 12/1 (Bet365) 5.35 Ascot - 0.5pts e/w Goring @ 100/1 (Ladbrokes) and 1pt win Midterm Break @ 14/1 (Bet365)

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Racing For Rupert 2.30 Ascot - 1pt e/w Side Glance @ 33/1 (Ladbrokes) Wasn't going to have a play in this race but if I'm honest I don't think any of the top three in the betting are rock solid and it wouldn't surprise me if one could sneak into the frame at a juicy price. Andrew Balding's horse is a real globetrotter and has competed in many good races around the world and plenty of his form entitles him to respect here in a below-par renewal of the Queen Anne. He's probably unlikely to win this but usually is staying on at the death and the drying ground suits. Hopefully they'll go a good gallop for him and he'll be plodding on at the finish. Has form tied in with the likes of African Story and Cirrus Des Aigles on his best days and has a fine record at Ascot. Was third in this race to Frankel and Excelebration a couple of years ago and I just think he could be an outsider with a squeak for a yard in decent form. 3.05 Ascot - 2pts win The Wow Signal @ 13/2 (BetVictor) I think this horse would be much shorter in the market had he been trained by a Hannon or an O'Brien given the way he demolished his field at Ayr. It was only a small one at that but he massacred them by 9l and then a further 11l back to the third. You could say he was more prepared for the outing than those rivals but you still have to be impressed and the form has worked out very well indeed. Those two running behind him have both won well since and you have to give him a huge chance in this. Connections believe him to be the real deal and 13/2 could end up looking pretty silly for all I respect Adaay among others. 3.45 Ascot - 2pts win Shea Shea @ 5/1 (Bet365) Very tricky race and I am a fan of all of those towards the head of the betting. I just wonder if Hot Streak's lightning pace might just see him vulnerable at the death (I do realise he's won well here over 5f before and runs with excellent credit over 6f) but the fast-finishers will be more potent on this quicker ground and I can see them closing at the death here. I anticipate a great race and he may well do the business but many people's hard luck story of last year Shea Shea could make amends here. He essentially 'won' his race on the far side before being chinned by Sole Power and while I'm not sure he was necessarily unlucky it was still a huge run. He'll have been prepped for this again after a couple of good runs in Meydan and conditions suit with the ground drying out. He'll get a good pace to chase here and his head-to-head record with Sole Power sees him edge it and I don't think you can really criticise his runs in the UK so far. This is set up to be a cracking race and I don't think Soumillon will exaggerate the holding tactics quite as much as he did at Meydan last time out. I'll take my chance at 5/1. 5.00 Ascot - 1pt win Suraj @ 12/1 (Bet365) I should be brutally murdered for continually backing this horse as he's a character to put it politely. The problem is every time he races you think there's a race in him and watching his run last time out at York you'd say this would be that race. He would regularly be slowly away, keen, or under pressure from a long way out in the past but since being gelded I think his run on the Knavesmire held a bit more promise. He did his usual trick of staying on late without threatening over 1m6f that day but it was his first run for a while and he was basically last turning in. He broke a bit better and both settled/travelled fairly well. He tugged his chance away in this last year but if the gelding operation has sweetened him up the run on his reappearance was promising for a return to this trip. He ought to stay it really given he won over the best part of two miles back on one of his first runs on the track and fingers crossed Spencer can get him tucked in from his wide draw with some cover and produce him late. 5.35 Ascot - 0.5pts e/w Goring @ 100/1 (Ladbrokes) and 1pt win Midterm Break @ 14/1 (Bet365) 100/1 winners in this race have been known to happen if you think back to John Best's Flashmans Papers and that horse had two races without winning prior to coming to the Royal meeting and this race. You wouldn't have expected an Eve Johnson-Houghton trained 2yo to be winning a Newbury maiden on debut so his sound 4l defeat by Adaay over 6f reads pretty well for a debut effort. That form looks pretty strong given how short the winner is in the market for the Coventry and although disappointing when last seen, Goring has shown enough to suggest 100/1 could be a bit big. He showed plenty of pace on both starts and travelled best of all over 6f on heavy at Leicester. Couldn't find on the ground in the end and faded into third but the drop down to 5f and a sounder surface should both aid him in this race. Could outrun his odds. I was impressed by David Barron's Midterm Break when he won at Beverley last time out and he looks generally progressive in three starts. He readily won a Southwell maiden prior to his success when last seen but stepped up again when running out a 2l winner of a decent little heat. The form would be good if not spectacular but his 2l victory can be marked up by the nature of his success in my eyes. He went haring off with a couple of other rivals and I thought he would be vulnerable at the finish. However, as the other two cried enough he powered home and was in no danger. The other pacesetters were well held in the end and the 2nd and 3rd placed animals came from right out the back. To go such a strong pace and be finishing in the manner he did was quite taking for me and there could be plenty more to come. His style should be ideal around here as he's got the early speed to hold a position and he can both quicken off a good gallop and run all the way to the line. Interesting contender.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Racing For Rupert That's what you want at the start of a big meeting. Profit for the day assured. Really good effort that I thought. Looked vulnerable under pressure disputing at the 2 pole but just kept pulling out more.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Racing For Rupert Just picked the wrong one in the Kings Stand. Shame 'cos I love Sole Power but got the race right. Oh well.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Racing For Rupert Well money spoke in the Windsor Castle. Not the type I like to get involved with tbh though so oh well. +6pts on the day. Will take that at the big meets - not easy to make profit a lot of the time.