Racing For Rupert

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert Bangonform travelling up well at 3 out when absolutely thumping the fence and losing all chance. Another one goes begging. Everything crossed for My Boy Paddy!

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 1.20 Plumpton - 1pt win Ruby Glow @ 10/1 (PP) The first two in the betting both have lengthy absences to overcome and I think at the prices it could prove worth looking elsewhere in this field. Seamus Mullins has a runner in here who has run three respectable races in bumpers and looks the type to make an impact over hurdles. The Newbury race in which she made her debut was pretty good I think as she finished 4th behind a couple of decent types and a horse who was placed in the listed Aintree bumper at the Grand National meeting. She was only beaten 8 1/2l that day and then pulled well clear with a Paul Nicholls horse when narrowly deprived next time out. Off the track for six months she shaped as if needing her most recent run, but it was still encouraging, as she finished 5th of 12 at Wincanton. She should have come on for that and I think the trip here will be ideal as she seems to stay well. Her dam was lightly-raced but won a bumper and looked as if she'd enjoy staying trips over jumps so this should suit and if she jumps adequately she can have a say in the finish here.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 1.30 Kempton - 2pts win Foundation Man @ 11/2 (Hills) I think the key to Jonjo O'Neill's runner here is the step up in trip as I feel he's been crying out for this sort of distance in his runs recently. He shaped as if a strong stayer in two bumper races when staying on well without threatening and he put in a highly-promising run on his hurdling debut when 3rd at Worcester on his reappearance. He's likely to come on for the run fitness wise and with the experience over hurdles but the winner is a 122-rated horse and the runner-up is open to anything so it wasn't a weak affair. He just looks like he needs things to happen a bit slower and he can grind it out a bit more and it's interesting that connections opt to send him 5f up in trip straight away after his first run over flights. That suggests to me that AP McCoy thinks he's going to prove much better over this sort of trip and it's no surprise given he's by Presenting and out of a 2m6f chase winner. His dam was very smart to be rated 155 over fences so there looks plenty more to come from this one and I fancy him to take this.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 1.55 Plumpton - 2pts win My Sister @ 15/2 (PP) I think the favourite is a bit of a weak finisher and that concerns me on this ground and there are plenty of others in here with questions to answer with regards to their wellbeing in terms of form, returning from a lengthy absence or on this soft surface. Mark Usher's runner is far from the easiest to predict either but ran away with a c&d race back in March and twice ran pretty well in the summer when not beaten too far. Her recent runs on the level have been over 1m2f and she's just shaped as if that's too sharp for her as she makes up a bit of ground towards the finish without threatening. On that evidence, the return to hurdling will help and obviously the return to this track is another positive. The soft ground shouldn't be too much of an issue based on some of her flat runs and in a weak race she's shaped well enough on the flat to suggest she's in decent heart and can put in a bold show today.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert Make that one winner and seven seconds. What a disaster. Four of those at double-figure prices too.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert Drift told the story with Foundation Man who basically doubled in price over the morning. Travelled and jumped well but the market suggested he wouldn't be winning. One for fences.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 1.40 Wincanton - 2pts win Miss Milborne @ 15/2 (VC) Jamie Snowden's mare finished behind Tante Sissi in the mares novice final at Newbury last season but has a 6lb swing today and the advantage of having a recent run. Not only that, but my selection ran as if she really needed more of a test that day (rallying well) and the softer ground and slightly longer trip today much in her favour. Considering that, the price of Miss Milborne is frankly too big in my book and she ran with plenty of credit on her seasonal reappearance with 4th of 17 at Chepstow. She should come on plenty for that and you can comfortably forgive her effort in the 3m race at Perth she competed in on her final run of last season given the winner won by 15l (my selection beaten 17 1/2l) and that horse was rated 14lbs higher than Snowden's charge and the race was a non-handicap. Her current mark wouldn't be beyond her and these conditions are ideal. She should be right on the premises once more.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 12.45 Sandown - 2pts win Decimus @ 9/1 (Bet365) Jeremy Scott's runner has a fitness advantage over a lot of these so long as he's recovered well from his fall at Wincanton last month. A place was on the cards on that occasion when coming to grief at the final flight and that was a promising run given it was his first of the season. Since winning a bumper on his debut, he didn't show much until his final start of the campaign when a highly promising 3rd at Exeter over an insufficient 2m1f. He finished behind a 130-rated horse and a now 132-rated animal and my selection runs off 115 today. He seems at his best when going right-handed so today's track will suit and I fancy him to go very close this afternoon.

[NeilM]

I was tempted by Miss Milborne anyway- I normally do OK at Wincanton- but your comments persuaded me. Thanks :)

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert Thank God for that!

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 1.10 Taunton - 1pt win Hatters River @ 7/1 (PP) Interesting that this one has been backed on its return/handicap debut and that bodes well with Paddy Brennan a top jockey booking. This gelding appears to stay well so the step up in trip is an advantage and ran well on his final start in a novice hurdle last season (shaping as if trip was insufficient). Runs off a lowly mark here in a much weaker race and I fancy conditions could be spot on for him today.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 1.50 Cheltenham - 2pts win Astracad @ 9/2 (BlueSQ) Although on the face of it, Nigel Twiston-Davies' top-weight doesn't have much room for manouvre off his current handicap mark, if he's going to defy it, it seems likely to come in a race of this ilk. First of all, conditions are spot on for him as two miles around Cheltenham on fairly decent ground appears to be what he wants to be at his best (2 out of 6 wins have come here and 5 out of 6 on better than soft ground). Secondly, the field here is not as strong as those he's been used to competing in. There are various issues with the majority of runners here and the favourite is an absolute headcase which proves how questionable this field is. Given that many of these have questions to answer, the Twiston-Davies runner looks pretty solid as he also runs well fresh (yard can get them ready). He won off 138 here last December when rallying to get back up on the line but was possibly value for a bit more than the winning margin as he's a horse who doesn't do much at all in front. He looked to have the race in the bag at the second last but idled before finishing powerfully up the run-in once headed. The yard's horses were out of form on the whole in the spring and this one ran with little zest in the Grand Annual when jumping poorly prior to staying on late in the day. Was clear of the rest when 2nd to Edgardo Sol at Aintree and made no mistake when clearly the best in at the weights at Perth on his final start of the season (still showing tendency to idle). He'll have to be given a good ride here but Sam Twiston-Davies obviously knows the horse well and I get the feeling he won't have to be at his very best to take this which makes him a decent betting proposition in this. 3.00 Cheltenham - 2pts win Sizing Australia @ 11/2 (Skybet) I feel dirty for opposing one of my favourite horses in Balthazar King here but you get the feeling that he's best fresh and this comes less than a month since scoring on the regulation course here. Six of his ten career successes have come after a break and I think his price creates a touch of value. Henry de Bromhead's runner has won over this course previously and has a solid chance at the weights here. He proved himself as in good shape with a promising run over 2 miles over hurdles recently (a typical prep for cross countries) and he goes better when the ground has less juice in it as well. His record in cross country races here reads 320314 and was in touch when badly hampered for the one disappointing effort. He gave 6lbs to the aforementioned Philip Hobbs runner at the 2012 festival whereas they run off level weights here and with that combined with the point regarding that one being best fresh suggests to me that my selection can get the better of him today. There are other dangers in the field but de Bromhead's horse looks sure to be right there once more and with the recent encouragement over hurdles, I take him to win this. 3.35 Cheltenham - 1pt win Buck Magic @ 10/1 (Bet365) Very competitive race over 2m5f but Neil Mulholland's runner is more interesting than most having had just five starts under rules so far in his career. He won a bumper and a novice hurdle two years ago but wasn't seen since until returning with a fine 3rd at Wincanton in February of this year. The form of the race is strong with Lovcen winning it off 130 (now rated 150) and the runner-up won next time out. In two starts subsequently, Buck Magic has just shaped as if a testing three-mile race was possibly a little too taxing for him. He was a good 4th at Newbury before shaping as a non-stayer at Exeter in May. He travelled as well as anything and made progress to be close up at 3 out but couldn't find any more and finished a fading 21l 6th. The way he moved through the race was encouraging, however, and a strongly-run 2m5f around here could prove absolutely ideal. The better ground looks another positive given both of his wins came on a sound surface and there looks more to come off a fair mark for a horse who has proved himself as capable fresh also. Tricky race to solve but I fancy this one to go close. 4.05 Cheltenham - 2pts win Pentiffic @ 11/1 (VC) Venetia Williams' horses are going really well at present and that bodes well for a big run from her chaser here with the very capable amateur Will Biddick on board. He'd be one of the better riders in the contest and should have a willing partner in this horse. He's done pretty well on the whole for this yard but hasn't managed to find a win in handicap company yet. However, his mark seems fair enough and it shouldn't be long before he gets into the winner's enclosure. Fingers crossed it can be this afternoon as he appears to have a solid chance here. He finished 3rd here in January off 2lbs lower before running no sort of race at Ayr next time out. However, he bounced back to chase home a decent type from the Emma Lavelle yard and then ran a very bold race in the Grimthorpe at Doncaster off 7lbs higher than today. On that form he's fairly well-treated as he was leading at the last when coming to grief despite having gone off very hard in front and although he was tired, he'd still have been battling out the finish with two good horses. His mark has dropped back down subsequently but his 9th at the Cheltenham festival wasn't a bad effort at all given he again went off quickly with another rival and was always going to struggle to maintain the gallop. He was still disputing the lead at 3 out, however, when he blundered, and soon was passed by horses. Was a weak 20/1 shot in the market on his seasonal reappearance, suggesting he'd need the run, and ran as if that was the case. However, the early market signs are positive for this race which bodes well and if he doesn't go mad out in front he should put in a bold effort with a run this season under his belt.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 1.55 Cheltenham - 1pt win Viking Blond @ 10/1 (Bet365) Nigel Twiston-Davies' runner has been rock solid in the market which is a plus for a horse of this kind and if he builds on his recent 2nd here over hurdles then he could be well-handicapped today back over the larger obstacles. He lost his way after a promising start to his chasing career last campaign and you can argue he's running off a fair mark today on any of his first three runs over fences - including an impressive debut where he galloped and jumped relentlessly to score at Chepstow. The fact his form tailed off badly has helped his mark come down and it is something he's done before. In the 2010/11 season his first three runs saw him beaten 8l, 3l and 1 1/4l in hot hurdle races. However, after those runs he was beaten 57l, 18l and 73l. It may just be that he's a horse you need to catch early on in a campaign and that's why I'm getting involved today. He was an excellent 2nd of 20 here over hurdles recently, showing a return to form and the blinkers return today. He's a stout stayer who jumps well when he wants to and a positive ride from Sam Twiston-Davies could pay off I fancy in this competitive handicap. 3.05 Cheltenham - 1pt win Abnaki @ 8/1 (Bet365) A few of the runners towards the head of the market all competed in a race at Chepstow recently and although my selection here was 4th that day - and behind Buachaill Alainn, he shaped really well and suggested he'd come on for the run. It was extremely testing there as well so it was a good effort for a first run of the season. The better ground should be in his favour today and can build on a good win here over 3 miles back in April. He looks a strong stayer on that evidence so the extra yardage this afternoon can help as well. He is 9lbs higher for that 3l success but I don't think he does a huge amount in front either so it's plausible his effort can be marked up. He was right in contention at the Welsh venue last time until late on to go down by 5 1/4l (unthinkable he'd be unplaced even quite close to the line) and should be spot on for this now given three weeks or so to recover. Track form is a plus and he's in off a featherweight today with the very capable Maurice Linehan continuing to take off 7lbs. 3.40 Cheltenham - 2pts win Ifandbutwhynot 8/1 (Bet365) David O'Meara's charge was a smart horse in bumpers and has suggested he can go the same way over hurdles in two starts over obstacles to date. He is a horse who can flatter to deceive on occasion but this race should really suit him as a large field here are likely to go off pretty hard up front. My selection is a strong traveller who should move through the race well. Sometimes he hasn't found as much off the bridle as expected but the quicker they go, the better for him today, and he'll relish it if he has horses coming back on him. His first run over hurdles was run at a steady pace which saw him loom up before fading - a combination of it being his first run for a while and the fact the race wasn't run to suit being the likely reasons for his disappointment. However, the race he won last time was well and truly franked by the runner-up hacking up yesterday by 18l and the pair were 7l clear of two solid yardsticks. He also took a bit of a hold in the contest so it was a good effort and he knuckled down better at a testing Newcastle track. He's likely going to be able to settle better today and his mark could prove pretty lenient in my opinion. Timmy Murphy is a good jockey booking and I'd be surprised if he wasn't there or thereabouts.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert Viking Blond ran his heart out from the front and looked to have a big chance turning in but just couldn't go with the eventual first 2. Beaten less than 3l and the winner...was my first selection of the season at 25/1(!). Abnaki ran worse than believable really. Can only assume the race came too soon or there was something amiss. Thankfully Ifandbutwhynot did it very nicely. Met trouble going for a run on the outsde and then was hampered by a horse who had unseated but soon recovered to motor past them all to take over at the last and put the race to bed up the run-in. One to keep a close eye on I fancy. Update: Bets: 33 Wins: 4 Placed: 10 Pts Staked: 51pts Pts Returned: 68pts P/L: +17pts A couple of recent winners have helped as it was pretty horrible seeing loads of horses finishing 2nd at often nice prices. Managed to work back into a decent position and most runners are putting up good performances. Hopefully I can find another one for the final day of the Open Meeting!

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 2.50 Cheltenham - 2pts win Domination @ 11/2 (PP) Showed he was in fine fettle when readily winning the Cesarewitch Trial on the flat when last seen. Has already proved he can run over timber as well, however, as he was a close 2nd when last seen under this code. Beaten a nose by a horse who has now won its last 8 starts, it looks a rock solid run. He's 8lbs higher today but conditions will prove spot on for him as he relishes testing ground and the fact he stays well is a big advantage at this demanding track where it's proving difficult to get home. Has a nice weight to run off with 3lbs claimed off his back and looks sure to be there or thereabouts if avoiding trouble.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 1.10 Leicester - 2pts win Nom De Guerre @ 4/1 (Bet365) Was a big eyecatcher for me on his seasonal return at Kempton last month when travelling strongly and only getting tired late on. Moved through to dispute 2nd turning for home before weakening but he shaped as if plenty of ability had been retained considering he's only run twice since April 2010. Suggested he'd come on for the run fitness-wise as well and the decent ground here is very much in his favour. The yard have had a recent winner, he looks off a fair mark and has seen support in the market early doors as well. If he doesn't bounce then he must go close.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert Another 2nd and must have touched nearly 1.01 in running. Gutting.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 1.55 Navan - 1pt win Mia's Vic @ 14/1 (Bet365) Returns from a spell of chasing which just didn't go well at all but comes back hurdling today and if running to the same level of form he was in when last seen jumping these obstacles then he'd have to have a very good chance. He was beaten 3/4l off 109 in a handicap at Perth in August before easily winning a maiden race and his subsequent 3rd was rock solid having been given too much to do. He was last at halfway and didn't really get asked seriously until too late. Made his way into 3rd behind the front two who were clear. The winner hacked up off 8lbs higher next time out and the runner-up got off the mark in a maiden race next time as well. The fact that my selection stays further is an advantage here given the testing track conditions and if he doesn't have too much on his plate from where he's racing then he should be coming home well. Hopefully they'll be stopping out in front and the race can fall in his lap late on.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 2.05 Kempton - 2pts win Miss Milborne @ 6/1 (PP) Jamie Snowden's mare won nicely at Wincanton last time off a mark of 129 to see her official rating climb to 135 and that gives her a rock solid chance at the weights. There's every chance she'll improve again as although I'm not sure this track is perfect for her, the extra 2f on offer today and the soft ground look sure to be in her favour. She's honest and tough and you know what you're going to get from her. Given her recent form is in handicaps it's unlikely she'll be running to much lower than her mark and has every chance of surpassing it, and that gives her an excellent chance given she's the third-highest rated runner in the race, she receives weight from the favourite who returns from an absence, the the 2nd favourite has to prove she stays this far over hurdles. Should get a big run for my money and therefore she's worthy of a solid bet.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert Hennessy Gold Cup - Saturday 1st December

I like Magnanimity to be honest if he runs. Looked a high-class novice in 2010/11 and the type who'd relish staying chases. Ran a good race in an albeit weak RSA on ground on the quick side for him and lost his way last season during months where the trainer's horses were really struggling. Has returned with two very sound efforts this season behind Sizing Europe (impossible task) and a horse who hacked up again next time out. His four wins under rules have come on soft to heavy ground at best(!) and a good test should play to his strengths. Tricky mark potentially but hope he runs 'cos he can go well I reckon.

2pts on with Bet365 @ 12/1.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 2.40 Newbury - 1pt win Our Bomber Harris @ 14/1 (VC) Returns to fences today having put in a fairly promising reappearance run over hurdles and that should have sharpened him up for today. His final run of last season saw him hack up in a novice chase from a decent type and would have pushed the very talented Hidden Keel if not falling the race before when running off unfavourable terms. Those runs suggest his handicap mark isn't too bad and he's a soft ground winner. Harry Fry has started his solo career off well and I fancy this horse to outrun his odds here.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert Another couple of seconds recently. Pain in t'arse! Our Bomber Harris would likely have won but for a blunder at 2 out.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 1.25 Newbury - 2pts win Rolling Aces @ 5/1 (PP) For all this is a competitive race I really think Paul Nicholls' runner remains a good price for all he has to carry top-weight in this once factoring in rider's claims. The fact he went as close as he did at Ascot last time was encouraging considering 2m3f is plenty sharp enough for him over fences given he stays three miles over hurdles. Disappointed at Wincanton in February but that came at a time when Nicholls' horses were running as if amiss and taking that out of the equation, he has a huge chance this afternoon on the rest of his form. He ran a decent 4th in a big field at Cheltenham on his seasonal return, travelling well, but shaped as if needing the run ultimately and did well on his chase debut last time. He stayed on really well from a fairly moderate position to finish 3rd behind some highly-rated rivals. A mark of 130 doesn't look restrictive at all based on that to me given he's going to prove a fair deal better upped to 2m6f and with Ruby Walsh back on board. Seems to relish soft ground as well so that's another plus and he just looks to have plenty going for him given his unexposed nature. 2.35 Newbury - 1pt win Princely Player @ 6/1 (PP) Admittedly it could prove tough giving plenty of weight away to some unexposed rivals but with Philip Hobbs' runners flying this looks as good a time as any for his talented novice to try and add to his two career successes. He hasn't run a bad race in his career so far and conditions today should suit more than they did at Kempton on his return when a highly-respectable runner-up in a listed event. He didn't run far off his mark of 136 on that occasion and considering he should be more at home on this galloping, more demanding track, upped in trip and on soft ground, he looks to have every chance of defying his mark. That was his first run in five months also and he won two of his three novice hurdles races last season over further than the distance he ran over at Kempton. He beat some useful types and was by no means disgraced when 2nd (clear) to a now 145-rated hurdler on his only defeat of 2011/12. His rating of 136 doesn't look beyond him based on that and I expect him to be bang there with track, trip and ground on his side this afternoon. 3.10 Newbury - Magnanimity (advised above) Bobs Worth is obviously the one to beat and horses have done well on occasion saddling large weights but my selection runs off a featherweight in here with Mark Enright taking a further 5lbs off his original burden of 10-3. That's a good weight in this race I fancy with the ground riding on the sticky side. That's no issue either for the horse who has seen all of his wins come on very deep ground. Although he's yet to win at this trip I'm sure he'll stay and has bounced back to form this season. He was a good novice chaser a couple of years back and went pretty close in an albeit weak RSA Chase when the ground was arguably on the lively side. Lost his way quite badly afterwards but his form mirrored that of his trainer last season who was really struggling for much of the season. Magnanimity ended the season with a fair run, however, and hasn't run badly at all in two starts this campaign either. Ran a good race behind a subsequent winner on his reappearance when the winner dominated and you can't really fault his distant 2nd to the top-class Sizing Europe over 2m4f last time when looking as if he needed further. On that evidence the trip and ground suit today and he appears to be back in form. Tricky to assess his mark seen as he's rarely run in handicaps (and when he has he hasn't been in form) but cheekpieces are added to the tongue-tie and I'm hopeful he'll go well for a yard in much better form now (23% strike rate in November compared to failing to reach 10% in the winter months last year including a blank November and a 2% strike rate in February). Should run his race and if it turns into a slog it may well suit him. 3.40 Newbury - 2pts win Ulck Du Lin @ 9/2 (PP) Paul Nicholls' runner caught the eye last time out when travelling well at Stratford but ultimately just seemed to feel the strain of 2m6f in the latter stages of the race. He finished weakly but looked the likely winner as close as late as 2 out and just emptied. Given the speed he showed the drop back to two miles looks in his favour and he was twice placed over this trip over hurdles when he was last seen earlier in the year - including a good 3rd in a hot novice handicap. He looks like he'll be better over fences and off his light-weight he's very interesting if his jumping holds up. Soft ground appears to suit as well and the fact Ruby Walsh is doing 10-1 could well be a tip in itself. Big run on the cards.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert Bets: 42 Wins: 6 Placed: 13 (10 2nd!) Pts Staked: 66pts Pts Returned: 91pts P/L: +25pts Pleased enough so far. Could have been a fair bit better, though, with one or two of those 2nds going in at good prices.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 1.30 Exeter - 2pts win Graduation Night @ 9/1 (Bet365) This is going to be a real test around the four miles at Exeter on soft ground so I want to be siding with a horse with plenty of stamina and Jamie Snowden's runner seems to fit the bill. All of his career wins have come at 3 miles or just over and two of these have been when tackling a right-handed course. His two efforts this year have been both disconcerting and encouraging in the sense that he's not seemed to have the pace to hold a position during the race and his jumping has been on the slow side. However, on both runs he has finished with a good degree of purpose to take 4th and 5th spots respectively in decent contests at testing tracks over extended three miles. On this evidence, he should relish going up in trip as he should stay and the slower tempo should suit and put his jumping under less strain. He's still relatively unexposed at the age of 6 and I just expect him to handle this stiff test better than some of the other runners in here. His pedigree is fairly stacked with stamina given his dam was only headed late on in a 3m3f hurdle on one occasion. He himself appeared to stay three miles well over hurdles which bodes well and he hasn't been stopping when winning his chase races over at least that far also. He's a soft ground winner and if he doesn't get too far behind, I expect him to be close at the finish.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 2.10 Aintree - 1pt win Fabalu @ 20/1 (Hills) Fabalu looks well overpriced to me. Should strip fitter for his reappearance run and relishes a slog. Has won over 3m3f on heavy before and likes to race prominently. People may look to his poor showing in the Topham but I think he had excuses that day. It came just a week and a half after he'd run well over three miles and the way the race panned out at Aintree wasn't ideal. I think he wants to get to the front, or nearby, but they went off quickly over a trip on the short side and the ground on the quick side. Don't think he had the gas to compete really so a 3m2f slog in a smaller field on heavy ground should play to his strengths much more. He didn't jump too badly on the whole in the Topham and he definitely can jump big so I just reckon the fact they'll go slower here gives him a big shout. Has a good weight and definitely stays/acts on the ground. Obviously good connections for the national course and if he gets into a rhythm from a prominent position then it could take something good to get past him.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 3.20 Aintree - 2pts win Gansey @ 5/1 (Skybet) Posted this before his run at Wetherby last time:

2.00 Wetherby - 2pts win Gansey @ 7/1 (VC) Sue Smith's gelding is a fairly consistent type who runs into the frame regularly and has conditions today in his favour which should see a bold performance. He shaped really well on his seasonal reappearance here last month when only fading late on and should strip fitter this afternoon. He finished last season with two decent efforts off 3lbs higher but probably found the ground a little bit too lively. Six of his seven successes have come with give in the ground so should enjoy the more testing conditions here. He's dropped down to his last winning mark and should be bang there today.

Ran his heart out on this occasion when only giving way on the run in and finished a gallant second. The winner has gone in since off a higher mark so the form is rock solid and conditions suit today with regards to trip and ground. He really wants it soft with form figures of 111UF1 when racing on ground described as soft or worse. Given he hasn't run on such ground since winning off 4lbs lower back in February 2011, there is a strong case to suggest he's performed well enough to see him go very close now he has conditions he can handle better than most. He has a good strike rate and although difficult to gauge how well he can go over these fences given his only previous run saw him fall at the first, he looks tailor-made for them really. Jumped like a stag at Wetherby when last seen and if replicating that today then he must be there or thereabouts.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 2.40 Chepstow - 1pt win Riptide @ 20/1 (Ladbrokes) Michael Scudamore's runner is a bit of a monkey but does have ability and is undoubtedly well-handicapped on his best form. He regularly hits a 'flat spot' in his races which is a concern but given the heavy ground conditions this race could fall apart and turn into a real slog which should see the stayers come to the fore. Despite not winning over this far before, he was a close 2nd at Pontefract over 2m5f on the flat in April so he does have plenty of stamina and shaped well at Cheltenham last time out when staying on well into 5th of 21. This race probably lacks the strength in depth of that and he's been dropped 5lbs in the handicap which looks fairly generous. The visor returns today to replace cheekpieces and 5 out of his 6 career wins have come with either blinkers or a visor on so that looks a positive and if he builds on his latest run then he should have a chance here. It will largely depend on how far back he gets but he often responds to the firm pressure he gets under and if he's close enough turning in then he'd have a half-decent chance today at a price.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert One of those days. Fabalu eventually fell but we'll never know what would have happened. Jumped well prior to that barring one shuddering error at the water. Did well to get back into contention before coming to grief. Surely would have been in the mix. Gansey for the second time now put absolutely everything in but got nothing out. Jumped like a stag, game as a pebble, just legless on the run-in. Gutted. Riptide ran his usual race really. Finished 5th or 6th.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 2.30 Fakenham - 2pts win Oscar's Secret @ 7/1 (VC) I'm pretty sweet on the chances of Kim Bailey's charge today as he steps up in trip which could be crucial I fancy. This is also a slight drop in grade and he looks fairly handicapped on his best form. He was only beaten 4 1/2l by the well-handicapped, progressive Ivor's King two starts ago (kept to his task well) and although he was more comfortably held by the same horse at Ascot last time, he had excuses. He lost his place into midfield and as such, lost sight at his hurdles and regularly made errors through the contest. This forced him further back and I'm sure Charles Greene wouldn't have wanted to be so far back. He did, however, stay on really nicely from a bad position to be 7th of 16 in the end, continuing to finish well over the 2m4f trip. He jumped better in the closing stages when getting a clear sight at his flights and the smaller field should help in that respect today. Looks very much like he'll enjoy three miles and cheekpieces are added today. Greene continues to take 7lbs off his back and he's a really strong claimer so I have no concerns about him being on board. Should be able to be right there today.