September 24 - September 30

[CzechPunter]

Bad end to the last week for the forum it seems, so let's turn things around. :ok

[CzechPunter]

Re: September 24 - September 30 Ok, here we go. Back Klara Zakopalova to beat Su-Wei Hsieh for a 3/10 stake at 2.23 with Pinnacle One does not have to be an expert to feel that Hsieh is not going to go far in Tokyo. Full respect though - winning two events in a row is a phenomenal success, but the conditions in Guangzhou were grueling and I am not sure whether she will be able to recover in time for this match. Zakopalova had a nice run in Seoul and should be much fresher than Hsieh - and I would still rate her as the better player of the two by a small margin. Zakopalova is the favourite for me here, so feel that the odds are worth taking. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/zakopalova-vs-hsieh-betting-klara-zakopalova-has-what-it-takes-to-beat-the-winner-from-guangzhou Back Tsvetana Pironkova (+1.5 sets) to beat Lucie Safarova for a 3/10 stake at 2.05 with Pinnacle Neither has played since the US Open, so no momentum for either of them and that, for me, means that Safarova should not be such a huge favourite. The Czech is as inconsistent as it can get and, although Pironkova tends to be a bit disinterested from time to time, I expect the Bulgarian to still have some fire in her for this part of the season. All three H2H encounters went to three sets, which is not surprising given how poor both can be at times - and a set is fully within Pironkova's range here as well. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/pironkova-vs-safarova-betting-tsvetana-pironkova-looks-overpriced-in-tokyo

[hebert10]

Re: September 24 - September 30 7pts David Ferrer to win ATP Kuala Lumpur @ 2.25 Coral Have to take these odds on Ferrer as in this field and with his draw to the final i feel he should be at around 1.9 or evens. He gave Djokovic a real scare at the US Open and played some great Tennis throughout the tournament. He also looked very good last week against John Isner in the Davis Cup beating him 3-1. Having only played that one game last weekend he comes in to this tournament fresh and should be very confident given his recent form and being a strong favourite here. He's already won 5 titles this year and i expect him to add a sixth here as in tournaments this year he has been knocked out of, he has been beaten by the big 4 (Murray,Djokovic,Nadal,Federer) but with none of the big guns around Ferrer should run the show here.

[CzechPunter]

Re: September 24 - September 30 Back Jamie Hampton to beat Kaia Kanepi for a 2/10 stake at 3.37 with Pinnacle Going to stay with the underdogs for another day, as I am going to go against the finalists of the tournament in Seoul. First of all, Jamie Hampton has already shown that she can play in these conditions by beating three tricky opponents in straight sets and I can see her keeping her match against Kanepi tight right from the start. And, given Kanepi's run in Seoul, fatigue might set in and Hampton will undoubtedly take her chances if that happens. Would have this around 2.90 in all honesty. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/hampton-vs-kanepi-betting-the-talented-american-might-get-a-shocking-win-in-tokyo Back Daniela Hantuchova to beat Caroline Wozniacki for a 2/10 stake at 3.93 with Pinnacle One note though - both of these prices might get a bit higher closer to the start of the matches, so waiting for a bit might not be the worst of ideas. However, there would be no previews if I were to wait for price changes, so going with these ones, as they represent enough value to me nonetheless. This bet is all about going against Wozniacki, who looked poor against Jovanovski and I feel that she would have lost without that rain delay. Hantuchova looked good enough against Makarova and this is not the poorest of match-ups for her, so willing to have a small punt on her today. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/hantuchova-vs-wozniacki-betting-daniela-hantuchova-to-upset-caroline-wozniacki-in-tokyo

[WinningTipster]

Re: September 24 - September 30 2 picks for the ATP BANGKOK: STAKHOVSKY+ 4GAMES HANDICAP OVER TROICKI @ 1.71 on pinnaclesports LU-2.5GAMES HANDICAP OVER YOUNG @ 1.90 on pinnaclesports I think bookies give Troicki too much advantage in this one as he is not been at his best this season. Young has very much a losing record everywhere outside US and Lu has been in good form, always playing great in Asia.

[devman]

Re: September 24 - September 30 WOZNIACKI TO BEAT HANTUCHOVA I am not going to waste too much time elaborating on this one. Wozniacki nearly came close to losing against a surprisingly dogged opponent yesterday. However, she somehow addressed the issue by standing tall and finding a way to win. I think Caroline must have just got a bit distracted at some point to get herself in that mess, but it can in no way be attributed to fatigue. In fact, she is one of the fittest girls on tour who uses kick-boxing as a means to tone herself up. Coming to Hantuchova, I just do not know how she won that match yesterday. Her legs were on fire for most of the 3rd set as she kept skipping on the spot to escape cramps. By the end of the set, she was swinging like a desperate boxer backed up in a corner. She bit her way out in the end as her opponent failed to tee off on her frailty. I really cannot see Daniella making any sort of impact later on this morning. Infact, I am going to boldly predict a walloping in two easy sets by the Woz or a withdrawal by hantuchova. She progresses not, either way!!!! YOUNG TO WIN A SET AND POSSIBLY MATCH This in my opinion is the best bet of the day by a street. I call it easy money. Simply put Lu has been playing a lot of tennis lately for his number to go under. There is no calculation here because we all know Young has been playing really badly. I always say that tipping is not always mathimatical. In fact, the more mathimatically convincing formwise, the greater chance for disappointment. I feel braggishly confident on a 2/2 here. GL

[Striker]

Re: September 24 - September 30 Tokyo [10.15am] A Radwanska v J Jankovic Under 20.5 games @ 1.98 [MarathonBet]..Stake,1pt Should be straightforward win for the favourite as Jankovic is not the player she was

[Atko]

Good shout on the Don, devman. Hopefully Wozniacki completes the set for you :ok

[Striker]

Re: September 24 - September 30

Tokyo [10.15am] A Radwanska v J Jankovic Under 20.5 games @ 1.98 [MarathonBet]..Stake,1pt Should be straightforward win for the favourite as Jankovic is not the player she was

20:D

[CzechPunter]

Re: September 24 - September 30 Back Jamie Hampton (+1.5 sets) to beat Agnieszka Radwanska for a 1/10 stake at 3.50 with Paddy Power Excellent performance from Hampton in my opinion and a repeat of that today could see her taking a set against another top player. Hampton has already played against Radwanska twice, so she should know what to do and I expect her to go for the big shots that can always bring success against the defensively-minded Pole. It is hard to see past the world's number three on paper, but 3.50 looks like a good price to me given the circumstances. One point only though. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/hampton-vs-radwanska-betting-the-talented-american-might-be-able-to-get-a-set-against-the-world-s-number-three Back Urszula Radwanska (+1.5 sets) to beat Angelique Kerber for a 2/10 stake at 2.76 with Pinnacle Urszula Radwanska has made plenty of progress this year and her win over Ana Ivanovic was pretty impressive, so I can definitely see her taking a set against Angelique Kerber. The German has been in good form as well, but her big hitting can sometimes go quite wrong and Radwanska should be able to stay with her in longer rallies. She is able to hit the ball cleanly and she also moves well around the court, so Kerber should have plenty of problems - and that can easily translate into a poor set at some point. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/radwanska-vs-kerber-betting-urszula-radwanska-has-what-it-takes-to-challenge-the-favourite-in-tokyo

[devman]

Re: September 24 - September 30 MATOSEVIC VS KARLOVIC It has to be said that Karlovic with his regressive old school style of play represents the last of the Mohicans. I think he has reached a point where his tennis career is now on a life support machine. His only weapon, if that can still be called one is his serve which he now uses as an adhesive to stick to matches for longer than is necessary - which is why he has now played consecutive tie-breaks in his last seven matches. Most interestingly, his last loss came at the hands of one Davydenko who beat him 6-0 in the third set, Karlovic having faded out quickly having been mentally drained in the first 2 sets. I cannot see him recovering quickly enough(Like he had any chance even if he was fresh) to trade blows with Matosevic who equally has a penetrating serve and meaty groundies. Still, I will not be greedy. I am taking Matosevic to win a set in prudent fashion. WOZNIACKI TO BEAT LI I really do not believe in sitting on the fence with overs/unders when it comes to a potent battle. Woz should be tired and Li should be relatively fresh. Woz is still on a roll and will be desperate to keep the roll going giving mind precedence over matter in the fatigue department. When you get surprisingly stung by a supposedly nobody at the time in a grand slam, it takes some time to recover. I just think Li might still be cocooned by the the Robson spanking. Woz to doggedly continue the winning habit in routine fashion!!!!

[InfectedBoy]

Re: September 24 - September 30

MATOSEVIC VS KARLOVIC It has to be said that Karlovic with his regressive old school style of play represents the last of the Mohicans. I think he has reached a point where his tennis career is now on a life support machine. His only weapon, if that can still be called one is his serve which he now uses as an adhesive to stick to matches for longer than is necessary - which is why he has now played consecutive tie-breaks in his last seven matches. Most interestingly, his last loss came at the hands of one Davydenko who beat him 6-0 in the third set, Karlovic having faded out quickly having been mentally drained in the first 2 sets. I cannot see him recovering quickly enough(Like he had any chance even if he was fresh) to trade blows with Matosevic who equally has a penetrating serve and meaty groundies. Still, I will not be greedy. I am taking Matosevic to win a set in prudent fashion. WOZNIACKI TO BEAT LI I really do not believe in sitting on the fence with overs/unders when it comes to a potent battle. Woz should be tired and Li should be relatively fresh. Woz is still on a roll and will be desperate to keep the roll going giving mind precedence over matter in the fatigue department. When you get surprisingly stung by a supposedly nobody at the time in a grand slam, it takes some time to recover. I just think Li might still be cocooned by the the Robson spanking. Woz to doggedly continue the winning habit in routine fashion!!!!

Could you please post the bookmaker and the price so that interested punters can follow. Nice job getting on Wozniacki.:clap

[Atko]

Re: September 24 - September 30 Back from a wee break and ready to fire with four tomorrow. Denis Istomin +2 games AH (v Nikolay Davydenko, Kuala Lumpur) Didn't like what I saw from Davydenko today against Singh. Too many breaks of serve and the old boy goes missing quite a bit these days in matches. He's liable to lose a set 6-2 or 6-3. This should be a tough match against Istomin. The big Uzbek got a morale-boosting win over Pablo Andujar in R1 and I expect him to continue that form here. He's the bigger server of the two, plays a very attacking brand of tennis and I think he's capable of hitting through Davydenko, who doesn't defend that well anymore. Davydenko leads the H2H 1-0 but threw in a 6-1 dropped set when they last played. There's a good chance he could lose this, let alone do that again. Plus two games floats my boat. 1pt @ 1.96 with 188bet Gael Monfils -3 games AH (v Viktor Troicki, Bangkok) This is a new Monfils. Before his injury, I'm convinced he'd have lost to Anderson today. But the Frenchman is actually keen to do well. He's said as much in an interview, where he admitted he must make the most of his talent. Good comeback week in Marseille, losing in the semis to Seppi, and this is a very nice match-up for him in Bangkok. Conditions are pretty slow here. Both men like it quicker but it inconveniences Troicki more. He likes speed so he can dominate quickly on serve. He's had a poor year after success last season and he was skelped 6-2 6-3 by Monfils last time they met. The Frenchman has more ability to wrest control of matches and I reckon that could undo Troicki. Very coverable line for Monfils. 1pt @ 1.91 with 188bet Richard Gasquet -3.5 games (v Grigor Dimitrov, Bangkok) Same problem for Dimitrov as Troicki has. I don't think this surface is quick enough for him. I know it's Gasquet's first match in a few weeks but the Frenchman has much to play for. He's on the premises of qualification for the Tour Finals at the end of the season and he'll be eyeing up a strong indoor swing. He leads the H2H 2-0 (admittedly all meetings on clay) but has had a very solid season. He doesn't often lose to lower ranked players. Dimitrov is an odd one; supremely talented but lacks the maturity to put it altogether. I can see Gasquet being far less error-prone and more solid and consistent on serve. Dimitrov was wobbly against Yang, and he won't get away with that against Gasquet. 1pt @ 1.91 with 188bet Feliciano Lopez (v Igor Sijsling, Kuala Lumpur) x Kei Nishikori (v Albert Ramos, Kuala Lumpur) x Juan Monaco (v Jimmy Wang, Kuala Lumpur) Going for the treble. All the handicaps on these boys were too short. Lopez ought to beat Sijsling. Both are big servers but Lopez has got more off the deck and is gunning for spot in the Spanish Davis Cup team. Played the clutch moments well against Lacko today too. Nishikori should be strong in Asia. He's beaten Ramos twice before, on Ramos' best surface (clay), and the Spaniard is still adapting his game to other surfaces. Would be a shock if he ousted Kei. Wang could cause Monaco problems early doors but once in his stride, I can see Monaco bossing the rallies as he has better technical skills from the back of the court. 1pt @ 1.99 with 188bet :hope

[CzechPunter]

Re: September 24 - September 30 Back D.Ferrer/A.Bogomolov - Over 18 games for a 2/10 stake at 1.88 with Pinnacle Back Alex Bogomolov (+1.5 sets) to beat David Ferrer for a 0.5/10 stake at 5.23 with Pinnacle Nah, I am not really seeing Bogomolov beating Ferrer, but to have someone priced at 17.00 in a best of three match always looks a bit suspect, especially given that we have not seen Ferrer in action yet this week. He has some much bigger tournaments ahead and, although he is a determined guy, I am not sure that he is going to be on the absolute top of his game in this match. Meanwhile, Bogomolov should be desperate to give this a shot and a spirited performance should see him cover the total games line and perhaps even nick a set. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/bogomolov-vs-ferrer-betting-the-spaniard-can-have-some-problems-in-his-first-match-in-malaysia Back Alejandro Falla to beat Aleksandr Dolgopolov for a 1/10 stake at 4.05 with Nordicbet It is always dangerous to back Dolgopolov in the early rounds of the smaller events, as you just never know which form of him is going to turn up. Meanwhile, Falla has already won one match over in Malaysia and I expect him to be on the top of his game these days, as he needs to get some ranking points in this part of the season in order to move through the ranks up a little bit. Certainly would not have the tough Colombian around 4.00 in a best of three match. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/falla-vs-dolgopolov-betting-aleksandr-dolgopolov-might-fall-sooner-than-expected Back I.Karlovic/M.Raonic - Under 26 games for a 3/10 stake at 1.73 with Pinnacle Crazy line in my opinion. Alright, the match-up is obviously telling you to go for the overs, but this line is a bit too inflated in my opinion. Even a 7-6 7-6 victory for either gets a push here and I think that it is fairly likely that we are going to see a shorter match than that. The conditions in Bangkok are, as Atko has already mentioned, a bit slower than you would expect them to be and that obviously goes for the unders as well. The bottom line is that I would never back the overs at this sort of line and I am fully convinced that this is a profitable bet in the long run. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/karlovic-vs-raonic-betting-the-inflated-total-games-line-looks-a-bit-off

[devman]

Re: September 24 - September 30 ERRANI VS PETROVA It is really hard to believe how much Errani has progressed over the last 12months, quickly establishing herself as one of the most formidable opponents to come up against. She does not seem to possess anyone dependable killer weapon in her game, but she is annoyingly consistent - a robotic human backboard. She has played Petrova once recently and the result was convincing enough to believe that the repeat will simply be a copy and paste job. Nadia just seems to have come as far as her form can take her. Errani takes this one. 10/10 STOSUR VS SHARAPOVA On the face of things Sharapova looks to have Stosur's number in every way thinkable. 10-1 H2H? Quite interesting! The fact is that it really could be 11-1 by the end of play tomorrow, however I cannot just ignore the warning signs from my heart which is telling me to only be concerned with the last 2 matches. I think Stosur is now playing well within those forms to suggest that she really could be dangerous. This is the game that will be on all parlays tomorrow with Sharapova's name printed on a majority of slips for a bookie sweepout. Hmmmm! I am alert and ready. I am ultra confidently picking Stosur +4.5 and hopefully the outright win 8/10

[Atko]

Re: September 24 - September 30

ERRANI VS PETROVA It is really hard to believe how much Errani has progressed over the last 12months, quickly establishing herself as one of the most formidable opponents to come up against. She does not seem to possess anyone dependable killer weapon in her game, but she is annoyingly consistent - a robotic human backboard. She has played Petrova once recently and the result was convincing enough to believe that the repeat will simply be a copy and paste job. Nadia just seems to have come as far as her form can take her. Errani takes this one. 10/10 STOSUR VS SHARAPOVA On the face of things Sharapova looks to have Stosur's number in every way thinkable. 10-1 H2H? Quite interesting! The fact is that it really could be 11-1 by the end of play tomorrow, however I cannot just ignore the warning signs from my heart which is telling me to only be concerned with the last 2 matches. I think Stosur is now playing well within those forms to suggest that she really could be dangerous. This is the game that will be on all parlays tomorrow with Sharapova's name printed on a majority of slips for a bookie sweepout. Hmmmm! I am alert and ready. I am ultra confidently picking Stosur +4.5 and hopefully the outright win 8/10

devman, please post the odds. Otherwise, nobody will know what price you're recommending. Thanks.

[devman]

Re: September 24 - September 30 Very sorry, my apologies I really should have. However, as you know, various bookies offer various extra betting markets. I initially thought that there will be no need putting up the odds if I do not tell you where to find the particular price. I also was not sure whether i was allowed to disclose the actual bookmaker before it looks like i am using the platform to solicit for business. I will be happy to put up the odds for next time and hopefully name the bookmaker if i am allowed to or let people search for themselves. For my tennis bets, I use the same bookies all through because their extra markets are well tailored for me.

[Atko]

Re: September 24 - September 30

Very sorry' date=' my apologies I really should have. However, as you know, various bookies offer various extra betting markets. I initially thought that there will be no need putting up the odds if I do not tell you where to find the particular price. I also was not sure whether i was allowed to disclose the actual bookmaker before it looks like i am using the platform to solicit for business. I will be happy to put up the odds for next time and hopefully name the bookmaker if i am allowed to or let people search for themselves. For my tennis bets, I use the same bookies all through because their extra markets are well tailored for me.[/quote'] Best just to put the prices and bookie up. It doesn't bother me at all but some people will want to know where you got the market and the odds. It's the way things are done. Good work on the selection front, another nice winner with Stosur :ok

[Atko]

Re: September 24 - September 30

Back Alejandro Falla to beat Aleksandr Dolgopolov for a 1/10 stake at 4.05 with Nordicbet

Great shout on Falla, CP. Ended up taking the handicap after reading your write-up. Good stuff :ok

[Durantula]

Re: September 24 - September 30 Thanks for the tip CzechPunter on Falla, dolgopolov is such a headcase and it is good to bet against him in the early rounds as you said. Nice one!

[Atko]

Re: September 24 - September 30 Not an especially profitable day for me. In fact, it's been a bit hit or miss for a while now. It's no coincidence that I've struck less gold on the handicaps since I stopped pricing up the matches. Thus, I've resorted back to doing so, and the markets have thrown up three bets for me tomorrow. David Ferrer -5.5 games (v Igor Sijsling, Kuala Lumpur QF) @ 1.93 with 188bet 1pt I wanted to see how Ferrer did against Bogomolov Jnr today before I gauged where he's at in this event. Ferrer was fine today. Coughed up a few break-point chances but slammed the door shut every time. I'm expecting him to kick on and dominate this event now. He's played a lot of tennis this year but is the model pro. He plays every match to win and will try to get the job done as quickly as possible. Sijsling has played well this week, but Ferrer is the first opponent he faces who will get back most of his serves. Ferrer is a fine returner, and has beaten the Dutchman twice this year already, very cosily on both occasions (6-0, 6-1 on grass, 6-2, 6-3, 7-6 on outdoor hard). Find it hard to see Sijsling getting much joy out of Ferrer here either. I though the -5.5 line would be lower than 1.93, so worth a play from me. Gilles Simon +2 games AH (V Gael Monfils, Bangkok QF) @ 1.83 with 188bet 1pt Toyed with taking Simon on the button but instead will plump for the insurance the handicap offers. Monfils did the business for me today but not without drama. He was double break down to Troicki in the first set and it was the Serb's mental foibles that let him back in. Simon will be a much tougher opponent here. He's defending his semi-final points from last year and will spar with Monfils a lot more than Troicki did. We saw last week how Seppi, another very good player from the back of the court, troubled the Frenchman once in rallies, and I can see Simon doing the same. Both men can be weak on serve, but I think Monfils is still a few weeks from peak physical form and Simon may just outlast him when it comes to the crunch. Ought to be a topsy-turvy match but I'd make Simon the favourite, so I'm very surprised to see him on a plus. Came close to napping this, but I'm not in great form so keeping the stake flat. Feel this is a generous offer, however. Fernando Verdasco + 3.5 games (v Janko Tipsarevic, Bangkok QF) @ 1.84 with 188bet 1pt I wasn't really very impressed with Tipsarevic against Moriya in his first match. He admittedly will come on for that tie but feel he could be a bit vulnerable against Verdasco in this match. The Spaniard has gone about his business quietly. Battled past Ito in three sets and then took out Young without losing serve. That win was quite impressive and he could be a bit of a dark horse in this event. The slower hard court definitely suits his game more than a quicker surface and he's beaten Tipsarevic in the past. I'm not convinced he'll win this - although I feel there's a better chance than his odds suggest - but there's enough there to take Tipsarevic very close at least. The Serb has been in good form this year, but Verdasco has the power to hit through him and be a menace. I had this line at +2.5 so believe we're getting some value here. The other matches, for me, are priced accordingly, bar the Benneteau-Falla encounter. I made the Frenchman a worthy favourite but wouldn't have him at -3.5 games. In fact, I thought it'd be closer to -2 games, as Falla is playing well. It's a hard match to get a handle on, so I'll skip it, even though the line on the Colombian holds plenty of value. Interested, as always, to see what the rest of the boys think for quarter-final day. Good luck :hope

[CzechPunter]

Re: September 24 - September 30 Back Gilles Simon to beat Gael Monfils for a 2/10 stake at 2.35 with Pinnacle Great day for me yesterday in all honesty, hopefully that streak can continue today. Agree with Atko when it comes to the Simon-Monfils match. Gael Monfils is not at his best just yet and you would expect Simon to beat him if everything goes according to the plan for him. The surface in Bangkok is fairly slow, which should give Simon some edge and I expect him to be very competitive in this encounter. At this price, I am willing to have a bet. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/simon-vs-monfils-betting-gilles-simon-looks-value-in-what-could-be-one-of-the-highlights-of-the-day- Back Alejandro Falla to beat Julien Benneteau for a 1/10 stake at 3.41 with Pinnacle Falla looked alright against Dolgopolov, so I would not really have him at this price against someone like Benneteau, who is past the days of his greatest glory in my opinion. It seems to me that Benneteau is starting to struggle even against weaker players and Falla is good enough to exploit his weaknesses one would say. The handicaps do not really appeal that much to me, so going for the big price one again. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/falla-vs-benneteau-betting-alejandro-falla-has-a-decent-chance-to-beat-julien-benneteau-in-malaysia

[devman]

Re: September 24 - September 30 KERBER VS RADWANSKA Two extremely clutch players going head to head in what promises to be a spectacular encounter. They have met 5 times with the score being 3-2 to radwanska, who also retains the mental edge by virtue of winning the last two. Incidentally the penultimate victory was in round 32 of this same tournament last year which A. Rad won in three hard fought sets on the way to a clean sweep of the Asian fixtures. Firstly, I do not think that Radwanska is anywhere around that form that brought her the title last year, although it has to be said that she might just be gathering momentum at the right time. So far nothing has given us any indication of where Radwanska actually is form wise. Beating Wozniacki in straight sets did not really reveal much as it could be attributed to fatigue finally catching up with the zestful Dane. Radwanska gives me the impression of a meticulously bred top weight filly who just might be carrying too much weight this time round. In other words the extra day of rest gives the south-pore player significant advantage especially with both being percentage players. Considering Kerber is the most progressive in terms of ground-breaking, My pick here will be over 2.5 sets at odds of 5/4(Paddy Power) with a huge lean towards a Kerber victory. Gl

[devman]

Re: September 24 - September 30 STOSUR VS PETROVA A very intriguing match-up between two players that know each others games very well. Petrova leads the head to head 5-3 with all bar one of her victories coming in medieval times. I will save myself time and say like in the Kerber write-up that Nadia may just be about to punch above her weight. Two back to back three-setters is too much baggage to bring in a rucksack to face one of the fittest players that ever graced the WTA. Nadia really has no right to be here as Errani messed up big time. I take Stosur to win and comprehensively so. 4/11 the win (paddy power) -2.5 8/15 strongly recommended. GL

[Durantula]

Re: September 24 - September 30 Kei Nishikori -2.5 games to beat Nikolay Davydenko- $1.90 TAB Sportsbet (4/10) Davydenko hasn't played too bad at all recently but I think the young Japenese player will get the better of him here. Nishikori fought from a set down yesterday to beat Albert Ramos, winning the 2nd and 3rd set convincingly (6-2, 6-1). Davydenko beat Istomin in straight sets but I feel his legs might be running out, coming to the end of this tournament. Nishikori younger and having already beaten Davydenko earlier this year at the London Olympics (4-6, 6-4, 6-1) are why I am playing this handicap. Even if he loses the first set, I feel he can still cover the handicap. Good luck to all.

[Atko]

Re: September 24 - September 30 One further bet for me today as this price has drifted to a hittable level: Milos Raonic -4 games AH (v Jarkko Nieminen, Bangkok QF) @ 2.07 with 188bet 1pt I'm pleasantly surprised to see this market on the drift. Nieminen is not the force of old, especially against one of the top-20 players. He's a nice enough player but doesn't have a serious weapon that can win matches or get him out of trouble. Raonic obviously has his serve but the Canadian is starting to develop other parts of his game. As the year has gone on, he's become much more dangerous from the back of the court and he's improved his movement, which is a key area for such a big man. I certainly don't think Nieminen has much advantage in rallies and he's got a serve that will cough up chances. The Finn will have to serve really well to have a chance here and there's no indication of that happening going by his previous match against Petzschner. Raonic played a shrewd match against Karlovic yesterday and I can see him getting a break in each set, or perhaps more, in this one. Good luck :hope

[Atko]

Re: September 24 - September 30

Kei Nishikori -2.5 games to beat Nikolay Davydenko- $1.90 TAB Sportsbet (4/10) Davydenko hasn't played too bad at all recently but I think the young Japenese player will get the better of him here. Nishikori fought from a set down yesterday to beat Albert Ramos, winning the 2nd and 3rd set convincingly (6-2, 6-1). Davydenko beat Istomin in straight sets but I feel his legs might be running out, coming to the end of this tournament. Nishikori younger and having already beaten Davydenko earlier this year at the London Olympics (4-6, 6-4, 6-1) are why I am playing this handicap. Even if he loses the first set, I feel he can still cover the handicap. Good luck to all.

Followed this and was looking good but Davydenko, as he does far too often these days, retired.

[devman]

Re: September 24 - September 30 My profound apologies to everyone who followed my picks earlier on. I have to say that I really felt duped and drained after the results knowing what I knew soon after I posted them. I have developed the habit of monitoring match prices from when they first come out to close to the off to try and remain updated with all I need to know. It is the main reason I put up my posts most times on the forum late. In following prices consistently over the years, I have come to learn that late moves in most cases say a whole lot about what might be likely to happen. I have never stopped asking myself how the bookies always know. Yesterday for example Kerber started at 11/10, Radwanska 8/11. As the night went on, Kerber went evens with Radwanska going 4/5. Just before I posted I checked,; Kerber had gone 5/6 with Radwanska 10/11. For some reason I was not really thinking right then because I would normally stop to inspect and in most cases go against the flow. 5mins after I posted, I refreshed my page only to find that Kerber had automatically drifted out to 11/10 as in the opening price. I knew instantly that it was a comprehensive loss and I had been duped by the predominant bookie spirits. lol!!!(Laugh if you may when I talk about spirits) You will doomed if you never ever considered this indulgence much more than the physical. There is also another strange thing I have noticed over the years of many hours that I have spent monitoring prices. Certain prices most times consistently interprete what will happen in a given match up. You just have to be able to sense the situation early enough. Here is one; 3/10 I call this the dungeon or open stance price. Look out for the opposite price to be 11/5 or 12/5. Paddy Power uses this 3/10 pricing to destabilize punters most times as it would 35-40% of the times result in a loss. It is kind of pricing that has the power to draw you in enough to get stung. I named it the bookie open stance becauseit enables the bookies to hit winners even off-balance. The sometimes easy to detect ones are 3/10 with no extra market options available at the right side. Beware!!!! Just as Kerber went back out, so did Stosur move from 4/11 to 3/10, just then a sudden sense of foreboding came over me and I knew my games were losers. I just did not deem it right them to log in back to the forum to change my picks. Well that's the way the cookie crumbles. Please please please guys just follow my 3/10 theory and see what you find. There is one there at the moment that I followed yesterday. FALLA. Price has not moved. There are times to follow it and these will be times when there seems to be a question mark about the opponent. I feel Benneteau falls into this category. Good Luck all!

[slider24]

Re: September 24 - September 30 Challenger Madrid : Sergio Guttierrez-Ferol to beat Filipo Volandri @ 11/8 BET 365 Strength (6/10) Fancy Sergio to turn the tables today on the Italian. They played last week and Volandri won 4 and 4 however the Spaniard was up a break in both sets and just couldn't push on and press home his advantage. This time they're in Sergio's home country and there's a reasonable chance the match will be played on indoor clay due to bad weather, which will make conditions a bit faster and suit the explosive big-serving Ferrol who if he can just curb his erratic spells stands a great chance to win today. He's beaten some very good players(by challenger standards) this week and I'm not sure how fit Giannessi was in his loss to Filipo yesterday. Challenger Orleans: Roberto Bautista-Agut to beat Ernests Gulbis @ 6/4 BET 365 Strength (6/10) Bautista-Agut has been a great cash cow this year for me and he very rarely lets me down, even in defeat. He puts in a solid shift time and time again and he's got the sort of sparring, patient style that can have a 'kryptonite' effect on Gulbis's game. You might think this won't be as effective on an indoor hard court but the Spaniard is an all court player who can dig his heels in on any surface. Gulbis playing well however he's playing the complete polar opposite to Dustin Brown today and this contrast in styles, allied to his propensity to struggle with these types anyway, gives me confidence that Bautista-Agut will grind the Latvian down and get the win. :hope

[CzechPunter]

Re: September 24 - September 30 Back K.Nishikori/J.Monaco - Under 23 games for a 2/10 stake at 1.96 with Pinnacle Another solid day with Simon getting the job done against Monfils. Today, I am going to go with the unders in the Monaco-Nishikori clash. Firstly, it is a match-up that will be decided by baseline play, which means the unders are more likely. Furthermore, this is a rather small event and, with bigger events coming up, I wonder whether both guys would be willing to play out of their skins for the points that are on offer. Finally, the line is set at 23 games, which is indeed a lot. With that said, the unders look decent enough here for me to play. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/nishikori-vs-monaco-betting-the-semi-final-battle-can-be-over-in-virtually-no-time Back Nadia Petrova (+1.5 sets) to beat Agnieszka Radwanska for a 2/10 stake at 2.23 with Pinnacle Nobody could predict that Petrova would get to the finals in Tokyo, but she did and she did so in a fairly impressive manner, even getting herself out of spots of bother against the likes of Sara Errani. That is a solid effort and I expect that good form to carry into the final match as well. It still seems to me that Radwanska has some weaknesses in her game and Petrova should be able to exploit some of them with some big hitting and decent serves. A set is fully within her reach today in my opinion. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/petrova-vs-radwanska-betting-it-would-be-wrong-to-underestimate-petrova-in-the-final-encounter