maxi Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 (edited) After 5 years in mothballs I thought I would resurrect this old thread again. With Sir Puntalot's ELO Ratings I thought it might be a bit of fun. https://www.punterslounge.com/elo-football-ratings/todays-elo-ratings I have had to reformat this OP as it was using the old page format from 5 years ago but I hope it still makes sense. I have uploaded a excel sheet for you to help do the maths. It has a very small macro to clear the sheet when needed.If you want to adjust your profit expectation then just adjust the green cells in Column A. I will get started by taking 5 games mentioned on Sir Puntalot's ELO page. .(latest post). http://s000.tinyupload.com/index.php?file_id=49855715463533275309 I was sorting through some old systems to throw out the other day and came across one that was doing the rounds about 25 years ago.The idea was to pick 3 homes and 2 aways in an accumulator,with 8 lines to cover multiple outcomes.Thus 8 LINES: 12345678 HHHHHHHH HHHHHHHH HHHHDDDD AADDAADD ADADADAD There are 2 home bankers,a 3rd home with draw cover and 2 aways with draw cover. we then multiply the odds for each line and divide 100/odds total each line. So,basically I am trying to make $100 minus my outlay (quids over there). Rather than give you an example I will use this weeks selections as a way of initiation: home banker: blackpool v huddersfield 24/9/12 H1.66 home banker: chelsea v stoke 22/9/12 H1.36 home: spurs v Qpr 23/9/12 H1.44 D4.33 away: barnet v rotherham 22/9/12 A1.72 D3.60 away: bury v MKDons 22/9/12 A1.90 D3.40 line1:1.66x1.36x1.44x1.72x1.90=10.624 100/10.624=$9.41 line2:1.66x1.36x1.44x1.72x3.40=19.01 100/19.01=$5.26 line3:1.66x1.36x1.44x3.60x1.90=22.236 100/22.236=$4.50 line4:1.66x1.36x1.44x3.60x3.40=39.79 100/39.79=$2.51 line5:1.66x1.36x4.33x1.72x1.90=31.94 100/31.94=$3.13 line6:1.66x1.36x4.33x1.72x3.40=57.16 100/57.16=$1.75 line7:1.66x1.36x4.33x3.60x1.90=66.96 100/66.86=$1.50 line8:1.66x1.36x4.33x3.60x3.40=119.65 100/119.65=$0.84 total outlay=$28.90 I have used bet365 odds. So I guess I am looking to win at least every 3rd attempt. I seem to remember I enjoyed this so i'll give it a go anyway. http://s000.tinyupload.com/index.php?file_id=49855715463533275309 Edited August 7, 2017 by maxi Page was 5 yrs old and using old format. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holte888 Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Re: Go Broke With Maxi's Accumulator Interesting this. If you do it with William Hill they have the ACCA insurance on five folds too. So could get the stake back on one of the bets if 1 leg lets you down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holte888 Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Re: Go Broke With Maxi's Accumulator Actually should state thats for Mobile App only and stake returned as free bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxi Posted September 22, 2012 Author Share Posted September 22, 2012 Re: Go Broke With Maxi's Accumulator Thats unfortunate,I've been searching around for bonuses and I thought bet365 were giving a 10% bonus but it turns out thats on the premier only.Still there probably are bonuses out there for something like this.Meanwhile we are still going with Spurs and Blackpool to go.:D home banker: blackpool v huddersfield 24/9/12 H1.66 home banker: chelsea v stoke 22/9/12 H1.36 1-0 :) home: spurs v Qpr 23/9/12 H1.44 D4.33 2-1 :D away: barnet v rotherham 22/9/12 A1.72 D3.60 0-0 :) away: bury v MKDons 22/9/12 A1.90 D3.40 1-4 :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxi Posted October 3, 2012 Author Share Posted October 3, 2012 Re: Go Broke With Maxi's Accumulator Was tied up with work last week.Well the first week went until the last match on monday where unfortunately Blackpool let us down.We could of traded out for a profit by then if we had wanted to but thats not the idea realy.So onwards and upwards: accumulator,with 8 lines to cover multiple outcomes.Thus 8 LINES: 12345678 HHHHHHHH HHHHHHHH HHHHDDDD AADDAADD ADADADAD there are 2 home bankers,a 3rd home with draw cover and 2 aways with draw cover. we then multiply the odds for each line and divide 100/odds total each line.So,basically I am trying to make $100 minus my outlay (quids over there). home banker: chelsea v norwich 6/10/12 H1.25 :) home banker: man city v sunderland 6/10/12 H1.25 :) home: spurs v Villa 7/10/12 H1.44 D4.33 :lol away: oxford v gillingham 6/10/12 A2.40 D3.40 :) away: Ipswich v Cardiff 7/10/12 A2.30 D3.25 :) line1:1.25x1.25x1.44x2.40x2.30=12.42 100/12.42=$8.05 line2:1.25x1.25x1.44x2.40x3.25=17.55 100/17.55=$5.70 line3:1.25x1.25x1.44x3.40x2.30=17.595 100/17.595=$5.68 line4:1.25x1.25x1.44x3.40x3.25=24.86 100/24.86=$4.02 line5:1.25x1.25x4.33x2.40x2.30=37.346 100/37.346=$2.68 line6:1.25x1.25x4.33x2.40x3.25=52.77 100/52.77=$1.90 line7:1.25x1.25x4.33x3.40x2.30=52.907 100/52.907=$1.89 line8:1.25x1.25x4.33x3.40x3.25=74.76 100/74.76=$1.34 total outlay=$31.26 I have used Bet365 odds. Luvly Jubly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxi Posted October 7, 2012 Author Share Posted October 7, 2012 Re: Go Broke With Maxi's Accumulator Bullseye! :rollin We are on the mark at the second attempt with Spurs wrapping up proceedings for us nicely on sunday.A nice $70 in this week but taking off the first week we are up about $40. See you later on in the week. Luvly Jubly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxi Posted October 12, 2012 Author Share Posted October 12, 2012 Re: Go Broke With Maxi's Accumulator Nice win last week.With the internationals this weekend i've had to go shopping abroad.A bit more tricky this week but the outlay reflects that.Lets hope for the best: Accumulator,with 8 lines to cover multiple outcomes.Thus 8 LINES: 12345678 HHHHHHHH HHHHHHHH HHHHDDDD AADDAADD ADADADAD There are 2 home bankers,a 3rd home with draw cover and 2 aways with draw cover. we then multiply the odds for each line and divide 100/odds total each line.So,basically I am trying to make $100 minus my outlay (quids over there). home banker: Barcelona_B v Sporting Gijon 14/10/12 H1.85 home banker: Verona v Grosseto 14/10/12 H1.61 home: Fleetwood v Wycombe Wan 13/10/12 H1.61 D3.75 away: Cesena v Crotone 14/10/12 A3.00 D3.20 away: Scunthorpe U v Brentford 13/10/12 A2.50 D3.30 line1:1.85x1.61x1.61x3.00x2.50=35.97 100/35.97=$2.78 line2:1.85x1.61x1.61x3.00x3.30=47.48 100/47.48=$2.11 line3:1.85x1.61x1.61x3.20x2.50=38.36 100/38.36=$2.61 line4:1.85x1.61x1.61x3.20x3.30=50.64 100/50.64=$1.98 line5:1.85x1.61x3.75x3.00x2.50=83.77 100/83.77=$1.20 line6:1.85x1.61x3.75x3.00x3.30=110.58 100/110.58=$0.91 line7:1.85x1.61x3.75x3.20x2.50=89.36 100/89.36=$1.12 line8:1.85x1.61x3.75x3.20x3.30=117.95 100/117.95=$0.85 total outlay=$13.56 I have used Bet365 odds. Luvly Jubly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Re: Go Broke With Maxi's Accumulator Hi Maxi. I like the look of this mate. I have done my own selections using your layout, but for smaller stakes to see how I go. Home banker - Crawley Home banker - Gillingham Home - Fleetwood Away - Brentford Away - Stevenage Good luck with yours. In fact, I hope both come in! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxi Posted October 13, 2012 Author Share Posted October 13, 2012 Re: Go Broke With Maxi's Accumulator Good Luck only1woz,I would have preferred to stay in UK for all of them too. Being a Coventry City supporter I nearly put Swindon in as a home banker. Crawley looks a banker. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted October 14, 2012 Share Posted October 14, 2012 Re: Go Broke With Maxi's Accumulator Crawley - WIN 3-2 (2-0 up, then back to 2-2 before grabbing a winner.) Gillingham - WIN 4-0 (As comfortable as it gets in betting. 3-0 at ht) Fleetwood - LOSE 0-1 (Lost a goal to Wycombe, couldn't get one back, unfortunately) Brentford - WIN 0-1 (Could even afford the luxury of missing a pen) Stevenage - LOSE 1-0 (Red card then a goal 2 mins later left them with too much to do) Not exactly a million miles away with this, confident your system can be a winner, so will continue with it. Will update you how I'm going with it, but won't clog up your thread with my selections/results. Cheers mate, and good luck :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxi Posted October 14, 2012 Author Share Posted October 14, 2012 Re: Go Broke With Maxi's Accumulator No worries only1woz,I enjoy the company.Fleerwood let us both down.They had 81 minutes to get an equaliser at home and couldn't manage it,perhaps they should stick to fishing.:loon Otherwise even my sorte abroad came up with the goods.See you next week or midweek if theres anything. home banker: Barcelona_B v Sporting Gijon 14/10/12 H1.85 3-0 :p home banker: Verona v Grosseto 14/10/12 H1.61 2-0 :p home: Fleetwood v Wycombe Wan 13/10/12 H1.61 D3.75 0-1 :$ away: Cesena v Crotone 14/10/12 A3.00 D3.20 0-0 :p away: Scunthorpe U v Brentford 13/10/12 A2.50 D3.30 1-1 :p Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Re: Go Broke With Maxi's Accumulator I selected 5 matches yesterday. I only paper-trailed them tho. Obviously, they all won then! Lol. Would have won £50 for £9 stake. Will continue to paper-trail until the weekend and I'll put money on one then, after the international s are out the way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulcy Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Re: Go Broke With Maxi's Accumulator Maxi, Like a few other I've been trying this myself this week (paper trading only). I've had some good success and only missed out winning tonight due to Germany's inability to hold onto a 4-0 lead. You said this was an old system you stumbled across?! What sort of success have you had with it in the past? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxi Posted October 17, 2012 Author Share Posted October 17, 2012 Re: Go Broke With Maxi's Accumulator Hi mulcy,I am still walking around in a daze atm,I had austria,germany,italy,holland and swizz in that order and i had it big time.I just can't seem to accept that germany can lose a 4 goal advantage with just 30mins to go.:eek The last time I used it I was averaging around 50% SR I think and a 30% SR should see you through without any damage.It all depends on the prices of the 2 bankers,the lower the price then the bigger the outlay.Generally the outlay will come to about 30% of your returns.Hope that sounds uncomplicated.:unsure Geez,the one team you can trust...Germany! Heh only1woz thats a good stake $9 for $50,if you could do that every week you'd be retired...lol Well I'll get back on friday and try and get back on the horse that threw me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxi Posted October 17, 2012 Author Share Posted October 17, 2012 Re: Go Broke With Maxi's Accumulator Heh guys,I have uploaded a simple excel worksheet that will calculate your line values for you,just type in your prices along the home and draw rows and the return you require and it will automatically calculate the rest for you...hope it saves some time...:p....f..k..g germans.:sad download here: http://uploading.com/files/get/468f25c2/ACCUMULATOR.xls Luvly jubly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxi Posted October 18, 2012 Author Share Posted October 18, 2012 Re: Go Broke With Maxi's Accumulator I have shyed away from utd v stoke as i think rooney will be exhausted after that poland debacle and stoke are usually difficult to break down so i've gone travelling abroad again. Accumulator,with 8 lines to cover multiple outcomes.Thus 8 LINES: 12345678 HHHHHHHH HHHHHHHH HHHHDDDD AADDAADD ADADADAD There are 2 home bankers,a 3rd home with draw cover and 2 aways with draw cover. we then multiply the odds for each line and divide 100/odds total each line.So,basically I am trying to make $100 minus my outlay (quids over there). BANKER juventus v napoli 1.70 BANKER inter v catania 1.57 HOME werder brem v munchengladbach 2.10 3.40 AWAY D Coruna v barca 1.30 5.00 AWAY norwich v arsenal 1.53 4.20 LINE 1 1.70 1.57 2.10 1.30 1.53 11.15 8.97 LINE 2 1.70 1.57 2.10 1.30 4.20 30.60 3.27 LINE 3 1.70 1.57 2.10 5.00 1.53 42.88 2.33 LINE 4 1.70 1.57 2.10 5.00 4.20 117.70 0.85 LINE 5 1.70 1.57 3.40 1.30 1.53 18.05 5.54 LINE 6 1.70 1.57 3.40 1.30 4.20 49.55 2.02 LINE 7 1.70 1.57 3.40 5.00 1.53 69.42 1.44 LINE 8 1.70 1.57 3.40 5.00 4.20 190.57 0.52 TOTAL TOTAL OUTLAY 24.94 100.00 RETURN I have used bet365 odds. Luvly Jubly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Re: Go Broke With Maxi's Accumulator Heh only1woz thats a good stake $9 for $50,if you could do that every week you'd be retired...lol Having actually looked at my figures in a bit more detail, I would have made roughly £42 profit. Currently looking through the weekends fixtures to see what I fancy, will post them up soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Re: Go Broke With Maxi's Accumulator Ok, bit of a query here, see if anyone can help me with it. I will take one line as an example here. H-H-H-A-D Odds are 1.8 x 1.66 x 1.72 x 3.0 x 3.4. Now, excel (and my calculator) tells me this comes to 52.42. However, bet365 tells me this comes to 52.85????? Even weirder, is that if I put on 95p at the excel price, I win 49.80 back. If I put 95p on at the bet365 price (which is 43p higher) then I only win 49.26?? Anyone help me with this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulcy Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Re: Go Broke With Maxi's Accumulator Hi Maxi, Will be following you this week again. Let's hope for some more success. Do you place each of the 8 accumulators individually one at a time? On betfair, If you select all the different odds, you can then place 8x 5 fold accumulators but only with the same stake for each which doesn't guarantee a level profit across the board. This is what I've been doing because I'm too lazy to do each one at a time! Anyway BOL. Jim. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Re: Go Broke With Maxi's Accumulator I do them one at a time mulcy. I use bet365, which allows me the option to "retain your selections" after I've put one line on. So I only need to change one or two games for my next line. And the stake, of course. Pretty easy :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Re: Go Broke With Maxi's Accumulator My selections for tomorrow are B - Fulham B - Swindon HD - Port Vale AD - Tranmere AD - Notts County Line 1 - 1.18 on to win 50.18 Line 2 - 0.97 - 50.29 Line 3 - 1.04 - 50.26 Line 4 - 0.85 - 50.06 Line 5 - 0.54 - 50.49 Line 6 - 0.44 - 50.05 Line 7 - 0.48 - 50.92 Line 8 - 0.39 - 50.32 Total staked - £5.89 :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxi Posted October 19, 2012 Author Share Posted October 19, 2012 Re: Go Broke With Maxi's Accumulator I used betfair midweek for the internationals mulcy and found it quick the way they do it and it seemed to offer a bigger pay out,however i'll never know as it lost:unsure i prefer doing them a line at a time because sometimes I might get tempted to leave the first line out as things rarely go perfect and that is the most expensive line.I'm still learning though. I think you probably had your figures mixed up there woz but I expext you noticed that eventually...good luck guys.:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Re: Go Broke With Maxi's Accumulator Swindon draw after going 1-0 up and then having a man sent off. Tranmere also led 1-0 then lost 3-1 eventually. 3/5 for me this week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Re: Go Broke With Maxi's Accumulator Double post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxi Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 Re: Go Broke With Maxi's Accumulator Arsenal let me down,it was a toss up between the gunners and bayern munich who won 0-5 and I let my heart get in the way.Another lesson forgotten but now learnt again..theres no room for sentiment juventus v napoli 2-0 inter v catania 2-0 werder brem v munchengladbach 4-0 D Coruna v barca 4-5 norwich v arsenal 1-0 Well checking the figures for the month it's not as bad as i thought but it has got to improve.However it is still a learning curve for me after a long time using this system.In a nutshell though,I don't want it to turn into one of those "if only" threads where i'm just making excuses on a regular basis. out in 28.90 0.00 31.26 100.00 13.56 0.00 24.94 0.00 98.66 100.00 Wow! On a brighter note I have been messing around with the accumulator excel sheet to make it a bit more interesting (hint...excuse the french).You can keep track of your score which will then know how you are doing (hint).Also i have unlocked the cells so you can jusy copy and paste the whole thing around the joint and the cell refs remain accurate.Hope this helps and I apologise for the language in the excel!!. I am using a free soccer site to formulate my predictions.There aint much to it realy,I just take the ones with the highest % of predictions.Its not mine,I just use it but not sure if admin allows it so if anyone wants the site pm me. New Excel Accumulator sheet: http://uploading.com/files/get/d32mf441/ACCUMULATOR1.xls Bad luck woz,,I knew you had notts county right coz i'm a coventry supporter...I should of thought of that myself :eek I'll get it right yet mulcy :ok Luvly Jubly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulcy Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Re: Go Broke With Maxi's Accumulator Had another go at this today/this afternoon but again just missed out, only hitting on 4 out of 5 games! Frustrating! Come on Maxi, lets pick some winners tomorrow night for the Champions League and Championship! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxi Posted October 23, 2012 Author Share Posted October 23, 2012 Re: Go Broke With Maxi's Accumulator I'm going for 2 accumulators in the euros: arsenal v schalke 2.02 man utd v braga 1.36 barca v celtic 1.05 14.59 lille v bay munich 1.47 4.37 fc nordj v juventus 1.35 5.00 LINE 1 2.02 1.36 1.05 1.47 1.35 5.72 17.47 LINE 2 2.02 1.36 1.05 1.47 5.00 21.20 4.72 LINE 3 2.02 1.36 1.05 4.37 1.35 17.02 5.88 LINE 4 2.02 1.36 1.05 4.37 5.00 63.03 1.59 LINE 5 2.02 1.36 14.59 1.47 1.35 79.54 1.26 LINE 6 2.02 1.36 14.59 1.47 5.00 294.60 0.34 LINE 7 2.02 1.36 14.59 4.37 1.35 236.46 0.42 LINE 8 2.02 1.36 14.59 4.37 5.00 875.78 0.11 TOTAL TOTAL OUTLAY 31.78 100.00 RETURN inter v partisan 1.32 lyon v athletic bilbao 1.85 psv v aik 1.18 6.61 nk dinamo v psg 1.54 4.01 ajax v man c 1.70 4.00 LINE 1 1.32 1.85 1.18 1.54 1.70 7.54 13.26 LINE 2 1.32 1.85 1.18 1.54 4.00 17.75 5.63 LINE 3 1.32 1.85 1.18 4.01 1.70 19.64 5.09 LINE 4 1.32 1.85 1.18 4.01 4.00 46.22 2.16 LINE 5 1.32 1.85 6.61 1.54 1.70 42.26 2.37 LINE 6 1.32 1.85 6.61 1.54 4.00 99.43 1.01 LINE 7 1.32 1.85 6.61 4.01 1.70 110.04 0.91 LINE 8 1.32 1.85 6.61 4.01 4.00 258.91 0.39 TOTAL TOTAL OUTLAY 30.81 100.00 RETURN I am using betfair prices as i have a bit more cash in there atm :unsure Just a quick update,I have not managed to get on to the 1st acc yet as betfair wont take the barca v celtic match at this time,I will try again later and let you know. well i gave up trying so just the 1 acc tonight. Luvly Jubly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Re: Go Broke With Maxi's Accumulator Risky one for me tonight. Lower stakes but higher reward..........hopefully! B - Ipswich B - Millwall HD - Wimbledon AD - Huddersfield AD - Oldham Line 1, 1.37 to win 100.90 Line 2, 1.04 0 100.63 Line 3, 0.96 - 100.82 Line 4, 0.72 - 100.05 Line 5, 1.09 - 100.57 Line 6, 0.82 - 100.13 Line 7, 0.76 - 100.71 Line 8, 0.58 - 101.64 Altho it's riskier, I feel strangely confident with these :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Re: Go Broke With Maxi's Accumulator Ipswich - Led 1-0 early on but ended up losing 2-1 Millwall - Led 3-0 (!) early on and ended up drawing 3-3 :@:wall Wimbledon - Comfy 3-1 winners. Huddersfield - 3-0 down early on before pulling one back. Disappointing. Oldham - 0-0 at ht, but went 3-0 down in the 2nd half before pulling one back late on. Oh well, it was a risky one, I knew that, but it seems my confidence was pretty poorly misplaced in these matches. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
perring1 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Re: Go Broke With Maxi's Accumulator good system! would it be possible to make it with 2 bankers and say 5/6 other teams to make the odds higher so then less has to be staked or will the extra bets to cover all the outcomes mean that it wont make any difference on the profit? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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