NCAAF: Week Four Picks

[AGurv]

College Football 2012-2013 Overall 8W -10L -3.00 units 44.44% Rough week last week again. Lost a couple of close ones. Get it back this week Boise St -7 (-115) to win 1 unit @ 5dimes Maryland +28 to win 1 unit @ 5dimes

[AGurv]

Re: NCAAF: Week Four Picks Missouri +10 to win 1 unit @ 5dimes Michigan +5.5 to win 1 unit @ 5dimes

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Re: NCAAF: Week Four Picks Buffalo - Kent State over 51.5 @ 2.00 pinnacle Buffalo lost their opening game againt Georgia 45-23 on the road but their offence did reasonably well, as they had 148 passing yards and 199 rushing yards in that game. They followed that with an easy win over Morgan State with their running game once again being more productive than the passing game, and given that Kent State allowed 354 passing yards and 185 rushing yards in the 41-14 loss to Kentucky, then do like Buffalo to score points here. Buffalo's defence did allow 228 passing yards and 257 rushing yards against Georgia, and allowed Morgan State to get 34 points, so Kent State should be able to score on them. They have some balance on offence as they passed for 227 yards and ran for another 182 yards in the loss to Kentucky. Like them to score on this pretty poor offence. Over looks good given that neither defence has shown much so far Record: 13-23 (-9.89)

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: NCAAF: Week Four Picks 2012 record: 2-3 (-0.50) Buffalo team total over 27.5 - 3pts @ 1.83 Bet365 The Bulls put up 23pts on opening week away to #6 Georgia, so really fancy that they can put up 4 TDs at home to Kent State tonight. Kent State made the headlines for the wrong reasons in Week 1 when LB Andre Parker 'returned' a muffed punt 58 yards - towards his OWN endzone, and although comfortable winners they allowed Towson to score 21pts. UK put 47 on them in Week 2, and I think the combination of Alex Zordich's arm and Branden Oliver's legs can ultimately see Buffalo comfortably cover this line.

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: NCAAF: Week Four Picks

Buffalo team total over 27.5 - 3pts @ 1.83 Bet365

It's a funny old game? :/ 2012 record: 2-4 (-3.50)

[blackcrow]

Re: NCAAF: Week Four Picks

Buffalo - Kent State over 51.5 @ 2.00 :eyes

Boise State - BYU under 48.5 @ 1.96 pinnacle Boise State started their season off with a creditable 17-13 loss to Michigam State as they were only able to pass for 169 yards and run for 37 yards while allowing 248 passing yards and 213 rushing yards. Then they beat Miami (Ohio) 39-12 as they had 304 passing yards and 295 rushing yards while allowing just 178 passing yards and 49 rushing yards. They are up against BYU who beat Washington State 30-6 as they had 303 passing yards and 123 rushing yards while allowing 225 passing yards and -5 rushing yards. Then they played Weber State and beat them 45-13, on 307 passing yards and 225 rushing yards while allowing just 139 passing yards and 115 rushing yards. Last week they lost 24-21 to Utah as they had 206 passing yards and 106 rushing yards while allowing 196 passing yards and just 49 rushing yards. Boise State are rebuilding after losing many talented players on both sides of the ball but they did get 4 starters on the OL and as such have not conceded a sack as of yet. They have shown that they like to run the ball with Harper as QB Southwick is still settling in, and though BYU have shown that they are hard to beat by running on them, Boise State's passing game is still work in progress, so do not like them to do much here as BYU's defence has done well so far. On defence, Boise State were outmatched by Michigan State but easily toook care of Miami (Ohio), however BYU should be able to move the ball better than Miami did. Still, they are up against a pretty good Boise State defence that defends the pass well with 3 CBs who have returned and the focus on BYU will be to run the ball. Here they do not do it that well so expect both teams to have problems moving the ball as the defences of both sides look better than their offences Record: 13-24 (-10.89)

[blackcrow]

Re: NCAAF: Week Four Picks

Boise State - BYU under 48.5 @ 1.96 :D

Baylor -9.5 @ 2.04 pinnacle Baylor may have lost Griffin III at QB, but Florence has done a good job stepping in and taking over where he left off. They have a good group of WRs there and 3 from the OL as they beat Southern Methodist 59-24 on 393 passing yards and 220 passing yards. On defence, UL Monroe allowed 281 passing yards and 96 rushing yards to Arkansas, and against Auburn, they allowed 163 passing yards and 255 rushing yards. Doubt that they can stop this very productive Baylor offence that continues to air the ball well. UL Monroe's offence have played two very good games where they beat Arkansas 34-31 on the road and lost 31-28 at Auburn. Now in their opening home game they face Baylor who have had two easy wins over inferior opponents. ULM had 412 passing yards and 138 rushing yards against Arkansas, while against Auburn they had 245 passing yards and 165 rushing yards. Both games they were losing and made second half comebacks as they were down 21-7 against Arkansas at half time as Arkansas lost their very good QB (Wilson) and that impacted on their offence. And then they were down 28-14 against Auburn at the start of the fourth quarter. While Baylor's offence did give up 362 passing yards and 145 rushing yards to SMU, expect their defence, with 8 returning starters, including four in the secondary, to be ready for this game. Expect this to be a shootout but Baylor looks like they have more weapons on offence. Record: 14-24 (-9.83)

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: NCAAF: Week Four Picks LA-Monroe (m/l) 1pt @ 4.00 Betfred I actually like the chances of Louisiana-Monroe causing another upset, just as they did against the Razorbacks in their opening game. Both of LA-M's games have went to overtime so far, QB Kolton Browning does a good job of stepping out of the pocket and extending plays, as he did when dictating the drive in OT against Arkansas that ultimately led to a game-winning FG, and they can for sure keep this game within winning reach throughout. Both offenses are more air than ground, whilst LA-M have defended against the pass better than the rush so far this season - so I like their chance of being able to restrict Baylor some way below their 53.5pt scoring average they have from 2 home games v weak organisations. This is Baylor's first away trip since RG3 left, so LA-M should look to put Florence under pressure hard and often, and try and force the turnovers that can win them this game. 2012 record: 2-4 (-3.50)

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: NCAAF: Week Four Picks

LA-Monroe (m/l) 1pt @ 4.00 Betfred

They made the good fight of it that I suggested, twice having 14pt leads in the first half, then fighting back once Baylor had seemingly took control, and won ATS but 'good fight' does not m/l bets win. 2012 record: 2-5 (-4.50)

[blackcrow]

Re: NCAAF: Week Four Picks

Baylor -9.5 @ 2.04

Neither of us won SS, with ULM scoring a TD with seconds to go to lose by only 5 points. UAB +35.5 @ 1.97 pinnacle UAB's offence managed 240 passing yards on South Carolina but struggled to run the ball with a total of 27 yards on 42 carries. They are up against a Ohio State defence that does not allow much, as they gave up 313 passing yards and -1 rushing yards in the 56-10 win over Miami (Ohio), then allowed 249 passing yards and 103 rushing yards in the 31-16 in over Central Florida; and finally they gave up 288 passing yards and 224 rushing yards in the 35-28 win over California. So they have progressively given up yards and can see UAB getting some yards and points through the air, as Ohio State's defence have given up some huge plays in recent weeks. UAB's defence allowed 322 passing yards and 179 rushing yards in the 49-6 road loss to South Carolina, as they struggled to stop their balanced offence. They face a similar offence here that had 244 passing yards and 294 rushing yards against Miami (Ohio); they had 155 passing yards and 256 yards against Central Florida; and 249 passing yards and 163 rushing yards against California. Ohio State should win this, and expect them to havea good lead at half time, but with a big game next week against Michigan State, would not be surprised that they rest some of their players in the second half in preparation for that game TCU -19.5 @ 2.02 pinnacle Expect TCU to play much better this week compared to last week where they had 335 passing yards and 152 rushing yards in the 20-6 road win over Kansas but four turnovers in the red zone reduced what should have been a much more comfortable win. Virginia's defence was gashed for 133 passing yards and 461 rushing yards in the 56-20 loss at Georgia Tech. With the balanced offence that TCU has, expect them to score some points here. TCU's defence allowed 303 passing yards as Kansas were chasing the game and they tended to pass more than they ran, as well as 77 rushing yards but this defence held form by allowing just 6 points. Like them to do a similar job here as Virginia passed for just 199 yards and 98 rushing yards in the loss to Georgia Tech. Their defence is very good and believe that they have shown enough to win this one well as they are better than Virginia on both sides of the ball West Virginia -26.5 @ 2.05 pinnacle West Virginia have Geno Smith back to run their offence as he has had an easy time of it against Marshall and James Madison with 9 TDs so far and like him to do well against this Maryland defence. Marshall lost 24-21 at home to Connecticut last week as they allowed just 70 yards and 153 rushing yards, and though they have played well, they face a much better offence here, which should see them do well in moving the ball through the air WV's defence did allow 413 passing yards and 132 rushing yards in the 69-34 win over Marshall while they also allowed 112 passing yards and 188 rushing yards in the 42-12 win over James Madison. Maryland had 109 passing yards and 96 rusing yards against Connecticut and expect them to struggle here in moving the ball as they are without an experienced QB to match it with Smith, as Hills has 3 TDs and 4 INTs so far. Florida -23.5 @ 1.98 pinnacle Huge 37-20 road win over Tennesse last week, where they had 219 passing yards and 336 rushing yards puts Florida in a good position to do it again here against a pretty ordinary Kentucky defence that allowed 160 passing yards and 163 rushing yards in the 32-21 loss to Western Kentucky. They had previously allowed 247 passing yards and 219 rushing yards in the 32-14 road loss to Louisville. Kentucky faces an even better and more balanced offence here, so expect them to score quite easily on them here. Florida's defence allowed just 257 passing yards and 83 rushing yards while Kentucky had just 280 passing yards and 93 rusing yards in the loss to Louisville. Hard to see them getting better numbers of this very good Florida defence. Expect Florida to win well here as they have a bye next week before a big game against LSU so they will be looking to fine tune their game here Georgia Tech -14 @ 2.02 pinnacle Georgia Tech ran all over Virginia as they had 133 passing yards and 461 rushing yards in the 56-20 home win over them. Like them to do what Kansas State did to Miami's defence as they had 210 passing yards and 288 rushing yards in the 52-13 road loss to them, while Boston College managed 441 passing yards and 101 rushing yards in the 41-32 win by Miami Georgia Tech's defence allowed just 199 passing yards and 98 rushing yards to Virginia, and only 230 passing yards and 96 rushing yards in the 20-17 road loss to Virginia Tech. Like them to conain a Miami offence that had 222 passing yards and just 40 rushing yards against Kansas State and 207 passing yards and 208 rushing yards against Boston College. GTech look better on both sides of the ball and like them to wear out Miami South Carolina - Missouri under 46.5 @ 2.05 pinnacle South Carolina have some concerns with QB Shaw, and if does not play then Thompson will replace him, but he has been completing just 52% of his passes. Either way expect RB Latttimore to take on more of the responsibility moving the ball forward. Missouri's defence does not all ow many yards and expect them to do well here in containing this offence. They have allowed 242 passing yards and 113 rushing yards in the 41-20 loss to Georgia and 183 passing yards and 113 rushing yards in the 24-20 win over Arizona State. South Carolina's defence is well equipped to handle this Missouris offence that managed just 269 passing yards and 102 rushing yards in the loss to Georgia and 192 passing yards and 126 rushing yards against Arizona State. SC's defence has allowed 13 points or less against Vanderbilt, East Carolina and UAB and doubt that Missouri gets much production. Like the look of a low scoring game Alabama -48.5 @ 1.95 pinnacle Alabama should have no problems in easily beating Florida Atlantic and even when they pull their first team off the field, they have plenty of depth to keep the scoring going. They easily beat Arkansas 52-0 and scored 28 points in the second half with quite a few of their backups getting a run then. They had 213 passing yards and 235 rushing yards and expect them to have even more yardage against a Florida Atlantic defence that allowed 385 passing yards and 328 rushing yards in the 56-20 loss to Georgia. On defence, Alabama are relentless and allowed just 79 passing yards and 58 rushing yards against Arkansas. FAU had 183 passing yards and 135 rushing yards against Georgia but would not be surprised that they struggle to get over 200 combined yards here. Record: 14-25 (-10.83)

[blackcrow]

Re: NCAAF: Week Four Picks

UAB +35.5 @ 1.97 :D TCU -19.5 @ 2.02 :D West Virginia -26.5 @ 2.05 :eyes Florida -23.5 @ 1.98 :D

Georgia Tech -14 @ 2.02 South Carolina - Missouri under 46.5 @ 2.05 Alabama -48.5 @ 1.95 LSU -20.5 @ 2.11 pinnacle LSU have had an easy time of it with three average sides but this will be their toughest test so far. They have good balance on offence with QB Mettenberger doing well while their running game has options with Hilliard. Like them to do well against this Auburn defence that has allowed 280 passing yards and 308 rushing yards in the 26-19 home loss to Clemson; they allowed 222 passing yards and 166 rushing yards in the 28-10 road loss at Mississippi State and they gave up 245 passing yards and 165 rushing yards in the 31-28 home win over LA- Monroe. LSU's defence has been their strnegth and doubt that they give the Auburn offence time to do much, not that they have done much so far. Auburn had 194 passing yards and 180 rushing yards for 1 TD and 4 FGs against Clemson; they had 125 passing yards and 91 rushing yards against Mississippi State and they had 163 passing yards and 255 rushing yards against LA Monroe. LSU too strong on both sides of the ball, and with an easy game against Townson before they meet Florida, like them to do well here USC - California over 58.5 @ 2.06 pinnacle USC return home after two road games where they had 187 passing yards and 258 rushing yards in the 42-29 road win at Syracuse and they had 254 passing yards and just 26 rushing yards in the 21-14 loss at Stanford with Barkley throwing 2 INTs. Like them to do much better here on this California defence that has allowed at least 31 points in its games with Nevada, Southern Utah and Ohio State. Ohio State had 249 passing yards and 163 rushing yards in the 35-28 win over California and like this balanced USC offence to do even better here. The concern for USC's defence is that they allowed 322 passing yards and 133 rushing yards to Syracuse and 215 passing yards and 202 rushing yards to Stanford. California's offence showeed some very good production against a good Ohio State defence, as they had 288 passing yards and 224 rushing yards, and with some of the problems in USC's defence then like QB Maynard to find his half-brother Allen with Sofele getting some good yards on the ground. Like both teams to score a few TDs each and would not be surprised that it becomes a shootout in the end Louisville -12.5 @ 2.09 pinnacle Lousiville have had three very good wins at home with their balanced attack as they had 247 passing yards and 219 rushing yards in the 32-14 win over Kentucky and they had 279 passing yards and 183 rushing yards in the 39-34 win over North Carolina. Florida International's defence has allowed at least 33 points in losing to Duke and Central Florida while they beat Akron. They allowed 261 passing yards and 170 rushing yards in the 33-20 loss at UCF last week, and like Louisville's offence to have even better numbers here. Louisville's defence allowed 280 passing yards and 93 rushing yards to Kentucky and 363 passing yards and just 47 rushing yards to North Carolina. FI's offence is rebuilding after losing some key players last year and they had 154 passing yards and 152 rushing yards against UCF but they face a very good Louisville rush defence and not sure that the passing game can make up for it Record: 17-26 (-8.86)

[blackcrow]

Re: NCAAF: Week Four Picks

Georgia Tech -14 @ 2.02 :@ Down by 19 in first quarter then led by 17 before giving up 3 points to lose in OT South Carolina - Missouri under 46.5 @ 2.05 :D Alabama -48.5 @ 1.95 :@ Too many FGs before they brought the reserves in USC - California over 58.5 @ 2.06 :eyes

LSU -20.5 @ 2.11 Louisville -12.5 @ 2.09 Arizona State - Utah under 49.5 @ 2.08 pinnacle Arizona State beat Illinois at home 45-14 with 318 passing yards and 192 rushing yards and then lost 24-20 at Missouri as they 183 passing yards and 113 rushing yards. Utah's defence allowed just 206 passing yards and 106 rushing yards against BYU. Arizona State's defence allowed 101 passing yards and 231 rushing yards against Illinois and 192 passing yards and 126 rushing yards against Missouri while Utah's offence managed just 196 passing yards and 49 rushing yards. Neither side has shown alot of productivity and can see this being a low scoring game Nevada -7.5 @ 2.12 pinnacle Nevada beat California 31-24 on 230 passing yards and 220 rushing yards and then lost 32-31 to South Florida as they managed to pass for 271 yards and run for 278 yards. Like them to score on this Hawaiian defence that allowed 394 passing yards and 81 rushing yards in the 49-10 loss to USC. Nevada's defence allowed 255 passing yards and 110 rushing yards to California and 363 passing yards and 209 rushing yards to South Florida but doubt that they will have as many problems with this Hawaiian offence that had 208 passing yards and just 56 rushing yards against USC. Record: 18-29 (-10.81)

[blackcrow]

Re: NCAAF: Week Four Picks

LSU -20.5 @ 2.11 :( Louisville -12.5 @ 2.09 :( Arizona State - Utah under 49.5 @ 2.08 :D Somehow this game stayed under Nevada -7.5 @ 2.12 :D

Record: 20-31 (-10.61)