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[TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617] [TR] [TH=class: firstColumn]Sunday 16 September 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]AC Milan v Atalanta (14:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.33[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]10.5[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]99.27 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]AS Roma v Bologna (14:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.36[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]5.2[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]11[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.66 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Chievo v Lazio (14:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.07[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.52[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.67 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Fiorentina v Catania (14:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.9[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.55[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.6[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.29 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Genoa v Juventus (14:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]6[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.9[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.72[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.20 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Napoli v Parma (14:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.52[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.1[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]8.5[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.94 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Palermo v Cagliari (14:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.25[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.55[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.8[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]98.93 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Pescara v Sampdoria (14:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.9[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.75[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.15 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Siena v Udinese (14:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.75[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.35[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.8[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.93 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Torino v Internazionale (14:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.8[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.3[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]99.21 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

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Re: Serie A > September 16 My early thoughts are that although Lazio have shortened slightly you can get them at +0 @ 4/5. I don't know a huge amount about Chievo other than they are fairly solid at home but tepid in forward areas. Surely Lazio with full draw cover is worth a play as a shot to nothing as I struggle to see the away side losing that encounter, am I right to think this? or do others see it priced correctly? Udinese +0 @ 11/10??? Ok I know about their recent plight with the champions league etc but surely this is a crazy price against the worst side in the division? Has something even worse happened at Udinese that I have missed since the Juventus game? The +0 line looks value on the away side imo, anyone else? Palermo -0.25 @ 19/20 could have potential, it's a game I would have left alone but I've heard that Astori will probably be out for Cagliari, could the absence of the centre-back tip the balance in favour of the Sicillians here?

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Re: Serie A > September 16 Well time to get back to business after the international break. Not taken anything yet, but there are as always a few things under consideration. Udinese look a nice price away to Siena. Whilst I have been critical of them so far this season, and have had a number of bets against them already, it must be said that I don’t think they are that bad! With the players, the tactics and the manager they have, they are still a solid mid table side, they still won’t concede many goals and with Di Natalie upfront they will always be able to get a goal or two out of pretty much nothing. Whilst international breaks don’t always come at the right time for teams, this one did for Udinese. A couple of weeks away will have allowed them to forget about the early season disappointments and re focus as a team, for them it’s almost as if the season is starting again on Sunday, as the league had taken back seat to the Champions League exploits up until now. Siena haven’t had the best of starts, with just the one point for 2 games against newly promoted teams. I feel that they would have wanted to get a couple more points on the board given these opponents and with the points deduction on top of this I don’t think Siena’s fans and players are that optimistic about their chances at the moment. Cosmi teams usually need a lot of pace, athleticsm and spirit to succeed and looking at this squad I don’t see much of that in it. If they did have such qualities then maybe they could challenge Udinese, but given that they don’t and that they will line up in more or less the same formations I think Udinese should be able to keep this match under control. The draw no bet / 0AH is around 2.1 here and surely is worth considering as Das Phantom suggests. Sampdoria at Pescara also interests me. These two teams have had completely differing starts, with Samp picking up maximum points, whilst Pescara have been beaten twice. It’s been spoken on these boards before that Pescara are a much changed and much more inexperienced side than last season, and do seem at the moment to be struggling to adapt to the difficulties of playing at this level. They will also have to make a few changes at the weekend, which looks likely to deplete their team even further, with the suspended Terlizzi and injured Romagnoli definitely out. They also have doubts for Weiss, Jonathas, Vukusic, and Balzano. With these two changes in defence and others possible in attack, they could be exposed at both ends of the pitch here. Samp are the team that have impressed me the most so far this season. When you look at the team on paper, its looks pretty good and they’ve been able to gel the new players, the returning players from loan, and a number of those who helped gain promotion very quickly to produce what is already looking to be a very stable side. They are well organised and combative in defence and midfield as you would expect from a Ciro Ferrera team, and whilst I do worry that they may be over relient on Maxi Lopez during the course of the season to get them goals, he should be able to find space within a makeshift Pescara back line to get chances in this one. The only downside is that Romero, the excellent GK is out for this match but they have a couple of adequate replacements in Berni or Da Costa so I’m not overly worried here. At 2.6 for the win and 1.85 for the 0AH I think they are worth a look. Elsewhere, I have some interest in another away team Inter vs Torino. First thing to say is that the price seems quite generous, given that when they played another newly promoted team Pescara away on opening day they were priced at just 1.85, whilst at the moment you can get them at 2.35. I guess this is a reaction to Inter’s defeat against Roma, but I don’t think that they played terribly in that match and particularly in the first half it was a pretty even affair. In the end, Roma were able to lull Inter and Stramaccioni into creating a more open game and that played into Roma’s hands. I do think over the season that Inter will struggle to get a CL’ spot, with their main undoing being the managers inexperience in the big games domestically as well as in European competitions this season. Whilst that was true vs Roma I don’t think that an away match vs Torino is likely to cause the same difficulties. They did the job comfortably vs Pescara winning 3-0 in that first game of the season, and they don’t have any new injuries to contend with. Indeed the goalkeeper Handanovic is back, and they may also have Ricky Alverez available for selection. I’ve not seen much of Torino yet this season, but they employ a 4-2-4 formation I believe. Having 2 in the middle of the park, against 4 or five top quality Inter players in the same area (we’re looking at Guarin, Cambiasso, Sniejder and Gargano vs Brighi and Gazzi) looks to be a recipe for disaster and I would fancy Inter to control this game and get a relatively comfortable win. Elsewhere, Atalanta are temptingly high vs Milan at 9.0 but as we saw against Bologna, even when Milan play poorly, they have one or two players that can get them out of jail. For goals, the Juve vs Genoa game stands out, but is priced accordingly.

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Re: Serie A > September 16 I am more or less on the same wavelength as you two this week. Udinese and Inter both appeal in some respect. I would definitely want the draw cover with Udinese though. I think what Dylan said about the break doing Udinese good is true. They would have been able to get their heads together over this time and can try to start with a clean slate. It's a bit annoying that Muriel and Di Natale have not yet been able to build a partnership because I don't think any of the alternatives are up to the job. Siena have been pretty piss-poor thus far though, so full draw cover will do it for me on Udinese. I do like Atalanta on the +1 (AH). Milan can still batter opponents down. I don't want to repeat myself too much but they lack creativity. The proposed midfield of De Jong, Ambrosini and Nocerino says it all. They push further responsibility onto Boateng. Hopefully they shorten even further, but I would probably take Atalanta on the +1. They play a straight forward 4-4-2 and will try to counter quickly down the wings to try and negate Milan's CM. Milan don't have the back four to shut out matches IMO, so Atalanta will get a few chances. 1.44 is too short IMO and I'll wait hoping that they shorten further. I think Juventus are too short, but don't know if I'll pull the trigger on that match.

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Re: Serie A > September 16 Siena V Udinese Udinese +0 @ 6/5 (Pinnacle) 2 Units I’m glad there’s consensus with Ultra and Dylan on this one, I’ll pull the trigger early on Udinese here as I believe there’s a bit of value on the away side. A few notes for good measure: I know its early doors but I think when you look at Serie A in 2012/2013 Siena are one of the poorest if not the poorest side in the division. They were a tough side to beat last season and perhaps this factor combined with Udinese’s poor start to campaign explain why the away side are priced a little long here. However, it’s been a bad summer for Siena, I won’t go into details as their problems have already been well documented on these boards as have Udinese’s. For me Udinese should still be a good side, Guidolin is still coach and they’ve kept their strong defence intact. They’re slightly weaker in the median imo but we’ll have to see how they’re South American additions settle in. Ultra mentioned the Muriel/Di Natale partnership not taking off yet and it looks like we’ll have to wait a bit longer before it does as Muriel is almost certainly out for this match. Diego Fabbrini is a potential replacement and I will be interested to see how the 22 year old develops this season. He only got to play the first 13 minutes in the defeat to Juventus because of the Brkic red card, maybe he will have more time to impress in this game. Right winger Basta came back from internationals with a bruised calf but hopefully he will be available for this game. Padelli should continue in goal with the suspension of Brkic. Centre-back Felipe is suspended for Siena after being sent off at Samp last round. Central midfielder Bolzoni is still unavailable while Valiani may come in for Sestu. For me the Siena squad is low on quality in all departments and on paper looks like an overblown Serie B squad. Strikers Calaio and Ze Eduardo could be a ray of light for Cosmi’s side but on the face of it there is just too much mediocrity throughout the team to survive for long at this level. As Dylan has mentioned the playing staff may not suit the style of Cosmi with the loss of Sannino as coach potentially proving fatal for the club. On balance Udinese will see this is an opportunity to bounce back from a poor start and the +0 line @ 6/5 paves the way for a value bet on the away side.

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Re: Serie A > September 16

Udinese look a nice price away to Siena. Whilst I have been critical of them so far this season, and have had a number of bets against them already, it must be said that I don’t think they are that bad! With the players, the tactics and the manager they have, they are still a solid mid table side, they still won’t concede many goals and with Di Natalie upfront they will always be able to get a goal or two out of pretty much nothing. Whilst international breaks don’t always come at the right time for teams, this one did for Udinese. A couple of weeks away will have allowed them to forget about the early season disappointments and re focus as a team, for them it’s almost as if the season is starting again on Sunday, as the league had taken back seat to the Champions League exploits up until now. Siena haven’t had the best of starts, with just the one point for 2 games against newly promoted teams. I feel that they would have wanted to get a couple more points on the board given these opponents and with the points deduction on top of this I don’t think Siena’s fans and players are that optimistic about their chances at the moment. Cosmi teams usually need a lot of pace, athleticsm and spirit to succeed and looking at this squad I don’t see much of that in it. If they did have such qualities then maybe they could challenge Udinese, but given that they don’t and that they will line up in more or less the same formations I think Udinese should be able to keep this match under control. The draw no bet / 0AH is around 2.1 here and surely is worth considering as Das Phantom suggests.
Will be getting on this early as well, as i'm not sure the price is going to stay this high as we head into the weekend. I've also gone for the draw cover, as there are a couple of issues with Udinese that need consideration. One is the the GK position, with Brkic suspended and the other is upfront. With Muriel still out, its likely that Barreto, who hasn't featured for Udinese in 5 years may now get his chance to link up with Di Natalie, which makes it about the 4th striking partnership they've tried so far this season. Udinese 0AH 2.15 at Bet365 (4.5 / 10 units) Just to touch on some of the others games mentioned above; Genoa vs Juve - personally I feel this could be a tricky one for Juve, certainly not as easy as the odds suggest. Genoa have started the season playing some really good football, particularly going forward. They look very well balanced in midfield with the technically very good Merkel and Kucka, complementing well with the defensive qualities of Seymour, and up top Immobile and Jankovic have started the season in excellent form. Add to that Borriello coming in for his first start, against a team he may well want to make a point against, then I see a good mix of players who won't be overawed by this Juve team. They still look a bit dodgy at the back, and Juve will get chances but with fitness issues to Giovinco & Bendtner then its looks like we'll see a partnership of Matri and Vucinic. As I say they will get chances but those two will waste a fair few of them. I can see this being a high scoring match with Genoa attacking threats just as potent as Juve. Goals is still something i'm considering but it is priced accordingly at 1.70 ish. Palermo vs Cagliari - I did have Palermo on my shortlist for a while, but the signs coming out of the club are not great at the moment. The two performances so far this season have been dreadful, especially in defence where they lost a couple of key players during the summer. I have confidence that Sannino given time can turn it around, but they do need time to get some confidence, sprit and a couple of key players back before they look worthy of bet. Miccoli hasn't helped this week by having a little moan at the chairman and the quality of the squad which hasn't improved the atmosphere around the club. Cagliari are not a great team, but they have enough about them to frustrate Palermo here. Anyone looking at Atalanta might need to get on quickly, looks like the price has fallen from 9's to just over 8's overnight.
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Re: Serie A > September 16 Milan - Atalanta I am on the wrong end of a slight odds shift, but am still pulling the trigger on Atalanta. Allegri has confirmed both Ambrosini and De Jong will play in midfield for this match. I can only think this is to protect a defence that is still bedding down. When joined by Nocerino/Emmanuelson, that midfield is very bland. De Sciglio, Bonera, Acerbi, Antonini is not a great D though, so I guess Milan are going with safety. I'm not sure how Pazzini is doing having taken a knock in training, but I'd imagine he will play. El Sha or Bojan will join him with Boateng in the hole. It's ok, but certainly not earth shattering. Atalanta are a pretty organised team. They have not come out of the blocks in the same manner as last year, but it hasn't been disastrous. They miss Schellotto and Peluso. Brivio is a decent fill-in for the latter. Milan's CM is going to be Atalanta's biggest issue I think. Competing physically is going to be a challenge. I guess they will get the ball wide as quickly as they can to try and attack Milan's full-backs. Atalanta will very much sit back and counter in this game. They are familiar with that approach and with Milan's lack of pace at the back, they could see some good chances. It will be another test of whether Milan can break down a team that is sitting deep in front of them. On paper, I'd oppose them at 1.5 in these circumstances all day. Atalanta +1 - 2.00 - 3 points - Bet365 Torino - Inter I think this could be a pretty explosive match. Dylan has already offered an explanation that I agree with so I won't write too much. Torino are playing an open and attacking style of football this season. The 4-4-2 come 4-2-4 formation that they play could be their undoing here though. I don't doubt that they can score against Inter in this one, but you cannot leave chances for Cassano, Sneijder and Milito. The former two are smart players who have a great finisher playing in front of them. Guarin, Gargano and Cambiasso is a formidable midfield built for recovering the ball and moving it forward quickly. Together they a strong physically and could easily dominate Torino's two CM's. I'm not crazy about Inter's defence but I fancy them to have a firm enough grip on this match to outscore the hosts. Goals would be another play that I'd fancy. Given Inter's lack of defensive solidity I am taking some cover in this match. Inter -0.25 - 1.975 - 5 points - Bet365 I too am taking Udinese (0) for 4 points. I don't have anything to add to the words of Dylan and Das Phantom. I am probably going to take Sampdoria (0) as well.

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Re: Serie A > September 16 On first look Lazio look value away to Chievo. After wins away to a tough Atalanta and a comprehensive one v Palermo, Lazio are in confident mood and will be looking to keep the beat going with 3 points v Chievo. Lazio won 3-0 here last season too which bolsters a pick on them. Currently 8/5 at Bet365.

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Re: Serie A > September 16 Good to see some consensus about our picks this weekend. I’m going to take Inter as well with the same handicap as Ultravires. I want a bit of cover as Torino are a little unknown to me. The rest of the reasoning is as per my original post. Inter –0.25AH 2.02 at Bet Victor (3 / 10 units) Finally I’m going to take the goals in the Genoa vs Juve match. I’ve posted previously about how well Genoa have looked going forward and they may be aided tomorrow by a couple of defensive changes that Juve might need to make. It’s likely that Chiellini will be out of tomorrow’s game, which would in normal circumstances see Lucio come into to back three. However the Brazilian is also a doubt, whilst Asamoah who has started at left wing back has a knock of his own. Replacements at wing back would be either De Cegile or Giaccherini but guess what, both of those have fitness concerns too. It’s unlikely obviously that all of these will be out, but we could see a couple of changes from the previous game, players not a 100% or people playing a little bit out of position, which a strong Genoa attack could expose. Obviously Juve offer their own attacking threats. Six goals in two games show what they are capable of, and even though they’ll miss Giovinco who scored twice vs Udinese, we’ll see Matri and Vucinic together again for this one. Whilst both have their critics, these pair were a key partnership in many of Juve’s games in their title winning campaign last season (scoring 19 goals between them), and so if the likes of Pirlo, Marchisio, and Lichtstiener continue to create for them, they’ll get some goals. Defence has not been as impressive as attack for Genoa this season, they conceded 3 vs Catania last time out, and they weren’t that much better in their opening game of the season against Cagliairi, who missed a number of good chances and Frey has to save the day a number of times as well. Genoa vs Juventus - Over 2.5 goals 1.80 at Ladbrokes (2 / 10 units)

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Re: Serie A > September 16

Udinese +0 @ 6/5 (Pinnacle)
FT: Siena 2-2 Udinese = PUSH A grotesque and deeply harrowing script written by some of the strangest characters Serie A has ever seen, but enough of Guidolin's pre-match team talk, let's look at the game: Great work from Basta at the start of the match to give Udinese a 0-2 lead, the away side just sat back for the rest of the half and waited to counter. Guidolin was not happy despite being 0-2 up and was so angry and animated he was sent to the stands. As the 2nd half started Udinese looked like they were going to press a bit more and control the game but then Lazzari was sent off for the away side which turned the game upside down. Siena showed very good spirit to comeback even with a man extra, Calaio and Ze Eduardo getting the goals. Udinese were their own worst enemy here and it was one of those games where going down to 10 proved catastrophic. Luckily no damage done for us with a push on the +0 line but on another day Sienna may have gone on to snatch all 3pts and then I would have been angry. Great work from Ultra opposing Milan and Dylan with the overs in Genoa. I'm not betting on the Torino V Inter game but I shall watch on with interest.
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Re: Serie A > September 16 please someone tell me what the hell happened with the roma game...i had double chance with roma and 2-0 and concede 2 goals within 2 mins and then 91st min concede again.... i did't watch the game so if anyone did could try and explain would be great or game sounds abit fishy to me.

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Re: Serie A > September 16

please someone tell me what the hell happened with the roma game...i had double chance with roma and 2-0 and concede 2 goals within 2 mins and then 91st min concede again.... i did't watch the game so if anyone did could try and explain would be great or game sounds abit fishy to me.
The coach Zeman is known for his crazy attacking tactics. I'd imagine the answer lies somewhere with this fact.
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Re: Serie A > September 16

Atalanta +1 - 2.00 - 3 points - WIN Inter -0.25 - 1.975 - 5 points - WIN I too am taking Udinese (0) for 4 points. I don't have anything to add to the words of Dylan and Das Phantom. I am probably going to take Sampdoria (0) as well.
Nice to get two wins on the Milanese matches. I was starting to get a bit concerned in the Inter match as they were being very wasteful in possession. Cassano put the match to rest though. It was a really back and forth match, played at quite a pace, but lacking quality IMO. Unfortunate that Udinese let a two goal lead slip. They are really struggling at the moment it seems. I wasn't able to watch Roma this afternoon, but I would not suspect foul play. Roma have always been temperamental and that is only accentuated by Zeman.
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Re: Serie A > September 16

Udinese 0AH 2.15 at >Bet365 (4.5 / 10 units) VOID Inter –0.25AH 2.02 at Bet Victor (3 / 10 units) :ok Genoa vs Juventus - Over 2.5 goals 1.80 at Ladbrokes (2 / 10 units):ok
Absolutely gutted with the Udinese result, and the fact that I talked myself out of taking Samp. Still +4.66 units profit for the day, so all good.
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Re: Serie A > September 16 Very good calls with Inter guys, don't get too down about the Udinese result, it was one of the most macabre and disturbing games I have seen in a long time but also made me laugh. Luckily we got our money back and the value was with Udinese all day so I'm not that fed up really. You can't legislate for things such as red cards so it's fine, the situations that bother me the most is when I make a bad bet and this wasn't one of those. Judging from what I saw today Udinese will be fine, they still play to a good standard and look very threatening on the break as usual. Their confidence is still a little low so when setbacks occur they have more of a noticeable effect on their play like today.

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Re: Serie A > September 16 Big thanks to the guys on this thread... reading a few of your posts got me interested in inter and someone saying that the 4-2-4 of torino would get dominated in midfield was the thing that convinced me. You guys do a great service on this thread every week with quality observations. Keep it up :ok

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