Portugal > Super Liga > 2012/13

[McNasara]

Re: Portugal > Super Liga > 2012/13 [TABLE=class: couponTable]

[TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Friday 18 January 2013[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [TH] [/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Sporting CP v Beira-Mar (20:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.44 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.33 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 8.5 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]104.07 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Saturday 19 January 2013[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [TH] [/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] FC Porto v Paços de Ferreira (20:15 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.2 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 6.5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 13 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]106.41 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Sunday 20 January 2013[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [TH] [/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Estoril-Praia v Gil Vicente (16:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.05 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.3 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.8 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]105.40 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Marítimo v Olhanense (16:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]104.41 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Sporting de Braga v Vitória de Setúbal (18:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.33 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5.2 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 9 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]105.34 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Rio Ave v Vitoria de Guimaraes (20:15 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.15 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.2 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.7 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]104.79 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Monday 21 January 2013[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [TH] [/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Académica de Coimbra v Nacional da Madeira (16:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.2 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]104.58 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Moreirense FC v Benfica (20:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 9.5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5.25 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.33 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]104.57 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Drac Blau]

Re: Portugal > Super Liga > 2012/13 PORTO – PAÇOS FERREIRA Goal Line: under 3 @1,90 Bet 365 I start by saying that of course Porto is clear favorite to win this match and this is the most probable outcome. However, Porto is still lacking several offensive options in terms of players and it has been really difficult not only to score goals but to create opportunities in the last matches. In the last 3 matches at home the Dragons won all of them by 1-0 and all of these 3 goals were scored by set pieces (penalty against Setúbal and corner against Nacional and Moreirense). It’s unlikely that Coach Vitor Pereira will make changes from the team that played against Benfica so Defour will play against as left midfielder while Varela (poor form) will again be the right winger and responsible to give a more closer support to Jackson (incredible player doing a great season). Offensively, after James got injured, Porto has been living from the ability of commanding the midfield and creating goal through quick passes from Lucho and Moutinho (specially the last one) and the exceptional quality of Jackson. Even if last match against Benfica could suggest a very open match full of chances, after seeing 2-2 as a result, that wasn’t the reality. Benfica had 3 chances and converted 2 and Porto scored both goals on the only 2 chances the team was able to create (first one from set piece and second one after huge mistake from Benfica’s GK). It is also important to say that Porto was the best team in this match, dominated Benfica but just couldn’t create scoring chances. Estadio do Dragao is a very difficult place for any opponent. Porto is very strong in defense and has suffered only one goal at home after 7 matches for the Portuguese League. On the other side we have the sensation of the year in Portugal: Paços de Ferreira. It is a very solid team, hard to beat, organized in every sector and that play a slow tempo football, not taking any chances and trying first not to concede while waiting for mistakes from the other team. They play with only one striker and I expect that, for this match, coach Fonseca lines up 4 midfielders with Josue deputizing along Vitor, André Leao and Luis Carlos with Hurtado supporting striker Cicero on the right wing. In 7 league games on the road Paços conceded only 4 goals so far. So we have the two best Portuguese defenses after 14 league games (Porto has only 13 due to te postponement of match against Setúbal) and I expect a low scoring game (1:0 is my call). However I will go with goal line to be on the safe side.

[stressina87]

Re: Portugal > Super Liga > 2012/13

PORTO – PAÇOS FERREIRA Goal Line: under 3 @1,90 Bet 365 I start by saying that of course Porto is clear favorite to win this match and this is the most probable outcome. However, Porto is still lacking several offensive options in terms of players and it has been really difficult not only to score goals but to create opportunities in the last matches. In the last 3 matches at home the Dragons won all of them by 1-0 and all of these 3 goals were scored by set pieces (penalty against Setúbal and corner against Nacional and Moreirense). It’s unlikely that Coach Vitor Pereira will make changes from the team that played against Benfica so Defour will play against as left midfielder while Varela (poor form) will again be the right winger and responsible to give a more closer support to Jackson (incredible player doing a great season). Offensively, after James got injured, Porto has been living from the ability of commanding the midfield and creating goal through quick passes from Lucho and Moutinho (specially the last one) and the exceptional quality of Jackson. Even if last match against Benfica could suggest a very open match full of chances, after seeing 2-2 as a result, that wasn’t the reality. Benfica had 3 chances and converted 2 and Porto scored both goals on the only 2 chances the team was able to create (first one from set piece and second one after huge mistake from Benfica’s GK). It is also important to say that Porto was the best team in this match, dominated Benfica but just couldn’t create scoring chances. Estadio do Dragao is a very difficult place for any opponent. Porto is very strong in defense and has suffered only one goal at home after 7 matches for the Portuguese League. On the other side we have the sensation of the year in Portugal: Paços de Ferreira. It is a very solid team, hard to beat, organized in every sector and that play a slow tempo football, not taking any chances and trying first not to concede while waiting for mistakes from the other team. They play with only one striker and I expect that, for this match, coach Fonseca lines up 4 midfielders with Josue deputizing along Vitor, André Leao and Luis Carlos with Hurtado supporting striker Cicero on the right wing. In 7 league games on the road Paços conceded only 4 goals so far. So we have the two best Portuguese defenses after 14 league games (Porto has only 13 due to te postponement of match against Setúbal) and I expect a low scoring game (1:0 is my call). However I will go with goal line to be on the safe side.

GREAT ANALYSIS! so is under 3,5 (1,55) good enough(multibet)? what about Moreirense-Benfica AW? I think Benfica will win!

[Drac Blau]

Re: Portugal > Super Liga > 2012/13

GREAT ANALYSIS! so is under 3,5 (1,55) good enough(multibet)? what about Moreirense-Benfica AW? I think Benfica will win!

Yes I think under 3,5 is a good bet! Concerning Benfica is a bit early to give a definite answer as the match against Moreirense is going to be played on monday evening and tonight Benfica has an important quarter-final Portuguese cup against Academica in Coimbra. Let's wait for this game to be played... However is safe to say that Benfica is clear favourite, not only because has a much better team, but also Moreirense will be forced to play without 4 important regulars due to suspension.

[Fedar]

Re: Portugal > Super Liga > 2012/13 Drac Blau, that is a very good and insightful analysis! I would just add a few points to it. I watched all the games you have been using as a reference point - Moreirense, Benfica and Nacional. I am yet not sure as to how much these games will tell us with regards to Saturday's match. First, Porto hugely underestimated Moreirense. They were at last place in the table, this game was just a week before winter break, and I don't think that Porto gave more than 25% of their potential, especially in the first half when they seemed like during training session. Second, the game with Nacional was just before the derby with Benfica and Porto was saving energy in big amounts once again. Despite that, it could have easily finished at least 3:0 for Porto. I clearly remember Jackson missing an open shot just in front of the goal line in the second half, James missing face to face with the keeper (that is when he got injured) and several other good chances. Third, in the big derby, I think that the flood of early goals, most of which were after terrible defensive mistakes (esp. second goal for Porto), scared a little both teams which felt very vulnerable at the back. That's why they slowed down and tried to keep it as safe as possible afterwards. My major concern with "under 3", although it really looks like a viable bet and a one that at least should not lose in the worst case, is that Porto tends to raise their game against higher rank teams, as PF are at the moment. Also, statistically, this bet would lose three times at Porto's home games this season, would have been void once, and would have been really threatened (despite winning in the end) in several occasions, like for instance the match with Sporting, when if Porto had better day, they could have crushed with 5-6 goals. I was thinking if "Porto to win to nil" isn't also an option worth considering?! At home they conceded only once, they have good defense and play possession and pressure football which leave few attacking opportunities for the opponent. And PF are not that scary going forward and have mediocre scoring record. The advantage of your proposed bet is that it provides insurance against a "0:0" draw, and makes "2:1" home win void bet. It is also a little better priced - 1.90 compared to 1.80 for Porto to win to nil. The advantage of the second proposed bet is that it would turn a 4:0 home win (achieved twice this season) and a 5:0 home win (achieved once) into winning bets unlike the first one. It also would make a 3:0 home win a winner, while it would be void in the first case. Porto Win to Nil @ 1.8 (b365)

[Drac Blau]

Re: Portugal > Super Liga > 2012/13 Fedar, Once again I take my hat off to your analysis. You are completely right when mentioning some matches in which Porto was able to crush their opponents and thus making this week bet a loosable one. However that happened in a complete different state of players availability of Porto. James was playing (and you know how important he is), Atsu was available and he was called up in the second half to complete destroying the already tired opponents defenses with his speediness and skill and even second forward Kleber was available and he has proven to be useful for example in the game against Moreirense where he contributed to enhance Porto's attack and contributed to the final assault leading to Jackson's goal in the last 20 minutes of the game. In my opinion Port's offensive power is lesser dangerous than at the beginning of the season where this 4:0 and 5:0 results happened. I have to agree with you that it's very unlikely that Paços managed to score against Porto and that you bet has great chances of being a winning one. I just finish by adding three other informations that could also be important for this discussion: 1. Paços have been playing at weekend and Wednesdays since the beggining of January. They've got a very small squad with only 13/14 players being used by the coach. They have played yesterday a very important game against Gil Vicente for Portuguese Cup. They managed to win in the last minute (final result was 2:1) but it was perhaps the poorest performance I have seen from them this year. The pitch was muddy after the heavy rain that North of Portugal endured yesterday and coach Fonseca said that his team was tired at the end. Probably they will accused that against Porto. Could we see some rotations on Paços for Saturday? Let's see what happens... 2. Porto currently has a very limited squad in terms of available players specially in attack. They will have a very important match next Wednesday in Setúbal that they have to win in order to reach Benfica in the top of the League. If Porto is winning I can see Coach Pereira taking out of the field, in the second half, important players such as Jackson and Moutinho to rest them and avoid more injuries in the team. 3. As I mentioned previously the weather in Portugal is not great these days and more rain is announced for the next days. The pitch conditions might not be perfect for a team that privileges ball possession and short passes such as Porto... It will be an interesting match and I hope in the end we have a 1:0 or 2:0 :-)

[stressina87]

Re: Portugal > Super Liga > 2012/13 Drac Blau what on Braga-Setubal? i lke HW and OV 1,5/2,5 what do you suggest?

[Drac Blau]

Re: Portugal > Super Liga > 2012/13

Drac Blau what on Braga-Setubal? i lke HW and OV 1,5/2,5 what do you suggest?

Personally I wouldn't touch it. Odds on Braga and Over are too low, considering that Braga yesterday played a very intense 120 minutes match with all regulars (except for Hugo Viana who was suspended) against archirivals Guimaraes in a muddy and heavy pitch. I wouldn't be surprised if there were some rotations on the team for next match. Braga comes from two defeats in a row and I don't possibly know how the team will react. On the other hand, Setúbal is a very umpredictable team capable of crashing Moreirense 5:0 at home, losing 4:2 against Académica and playing a very decent defensive game with several rotations in do Dragao against Porto, loosing only 1:0. All of this in just one week...

[Drac Blau]

Re: Portugal > Super Liga > 2012/13 Two more previews for this weekend in the Portuguese league: ESTORIL– GIL VICENTE Estoril(-0,5) AH @2,05 Bet365 Estoril is doing a great season in Portugal, specially if we take in consideration that they got promoted just this year. They are a very organized team, always trying to attack, never speculating and with an impressive offensive trio. These three players (Licá, Luis Leal and Carlitos) are constantly changing positions and confusing the opponents defense by doing so. At home they have a record of D-W-L-L-W-W-L. It is not a great record but if we look closely we can see that two of the lost games were against Benfica and Porto and the other loss and draw were against Rio Ave and Paços . So Estoril, which is currently 6^thin the table, didn't manage to get 3 points at home in the matches against teams placed above them in the table (1,2,4 and 5^thposition). It is curious to note that, against weaker teams placed in inferior positions of the table, such as Marítimo, Moreirense and Setúbal, Estoril managed to get the 3 points quite easily (3-1; 2-0 and 3-0). Gil Vicente, currently placed in the 15^th of the table, is a team pretty much of the same level as these 3 . Estoril arrives to this match with no major injury concerns and with a high morale after a well deserved win on the road against Beira-Mar in the last fixture. Gil Vicente is struggling with a tough season. Several long term injuries, not winning a match in the league since October and with morale rock bottom after loosing at home last weekend against Rio Ave and also loosing yesterday against Paços fo a cup fixture in the last minute. This could be the decisive factor here as, while Estoril have had the full week to prepare this game, Gil Vicente had to endure 90 minutes of an intense match against Paços under heavy rain and, to make things worse, saw their right back Eder sent off with a double booking which will make him unavailable to face Estoril. For all of this reasons, I'm pretty confident on a home win. RIOAVE – GUIMARAES RioAve (-0,5) AH @2,025Bet365 Rio Ave arrives to this match with the morale boast of two victories on the road: 1:0 against Marítimo that allowed them to reach the semifinals of the Portuguese League cup and another 1:0 win last weekend against Gil Vicente. This has been the image of this year's Rio Ave: a very solid and capable team on the road (second best in the league just after Benfica) and an irregular and under-performing team at home (only one win out of 7 matches). However, in the last 3 home matches they managed to play very decent games and, according to my point of view, they deserved more in all of them. They lost 1:0 against Benfica in a very tight match where they fought hard and deserved at least a draw, they had a 0:0 draw with solid Paços but they pushed until the end with some clear cut chances of scoring and finally, they undeservedly lost 1:0 against Olhanense after 25 shots at goal and several opportunities missed. I think that it's time toc hange this fate as they are playing good football and have the adequate players for achieving much better results at home. For this match they welcome back important defenders Edimar and Nivaldo after suspension and they have no further players missing. On the other side of the pitch, we will have Guimaraes who are a team of warriors against the difficulties and innumerous player losses they suffered in past weeks. Between players leaving the club, players called up for international duty and injuries, coach Rui Vitória was left with only 12-13 actual first team members and was obliged to call up reinforcements from the B team. Some of these young and inexperienced players are currently starting in the first XI such as right defender Kanu, central defender Paulo Oliveira and midfielder Tiago Rodrigues.Several others fill the bench. For this match the situation is even worse: left back Addy is suspended, right back Kanu (already an young replacement for the long term injuries of right backs Amorim and Alex) and important holding midfielder Leoner Olimpio, were injured in yesterday's match against Braga and are both doubtful. This already depleted and extenuated team, managed to play an excellent match against Braga yesterday and qualify for the quarter-finals of Portuguese Cup after winning 2:1 in extra time. Despite the great display of courage, fighting and team spirit of these past few encounters I think that a well rested and prepared Rio Ave would prove too strong for Guimaraes with too many missing players specially at the back. I reckon that the pacey and skillful Rio Ave forwards (Ukra, Bebe and Del Valle) would largely benefit from this situation.

[malabgd]

Re: Portugal > Super Liga > 2012/13 Injuries and suspensions Rio Ave v Vitória Guimarães Rio Ave: - Vitória Guimarães: Olímpio (12/0 m), Dinis (0/0 m), André (13/1 m), Addy (11/1 d), N'Diaye (9/1 d), El Adoua (12/0 d), Soudani (8/2 f)

[stressina87]

Re: Portugal > Super Liga > 2012/13

PORTO – PAÇOS FERREIRA Goal Line: under 3 @1,90 Bet 365 I start by saying that of course Porto is clear favorite to win this match and this is the most probable outcome. However, Porto is still lacking several offensive options in terms of players and it has been really difficult not only to score goals but to create opportunities in the last matches. In the last 3 matches at home the Dragons won all of them by 1-0 and all of these 3 goals were scored by set pieces (penalty against Setúbal and corner against Nacional and Moreirense). It’s unlikely that Coach Vitor Pereira will make changes from the team that played against Benfica so Defour will play against as left midfielder while Varela (poor form) will again be the right winger and responsible to give a more closer support to Jackson (incredible player doing a great season). Offensively, after James got injured, Porto has been living from the ability of commanding the midfield and creating goal through quick passes from Lucho and Moutinho (specially the last one) and the exceptional quality of Jackson. Even if last match against Benfica could suggest a very open match full of chances, after seeing 2-2 as a result, that wasn’t the reality. Benfica had 3 chances and converted 2 and Porto scored both goals on the only 2 chances the team was able to create (first one from set piece and second one after huge mistake from Benfica’s GK). It is also important to say that Porto was the best team in this match, dominated Benfica but just couldn’t create scoring chances. Estadio do Dragao is a very difficult place for any opponent. Porto is very strong in defense and has suffered only one goal at home after 7 matches for the Portuguese League. On the other side we have the sensation of the year in Portugal: Paços de Ferreira. It is a very solid team, hard to beat, organized in every sector and that play a slow tempo football, not taking any chances and trying first not to concede while waiting for mistakes from the other team. They play with only one striker and I expect that, for this match, coach Fonseca lines up 4 midfielders with Josue deputizing along Vitor, André Leao and Luis Carlos with Hurtado supporting striker Cicero on the right wing. In 7 league games on the road Paços conceded only 4 goals so far. So we have the two best Portuguese defenses after 14 league games (Porto has only 13 due to te postponement of match against Setúbal) and I expect a low scoring game (1:0 is my call). However I will go with goal line to be on the safe side.

FT 2-0! Great pick!

[McNasara]

Re: Portugal > Super Liga > 2012/13 [TABLE=class: couponTable]

[TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Wednesday 23 January 2013[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Vitória de Setúbal v FC Porto (20:15 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 16 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 6.7 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.27 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]99.92 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Friday 25 January 2013[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Académica de Coimbra v Beira-Mar (20:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.15 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.92 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Saturday 26 January 2013[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Sporting de Braga v Benfica (20:15 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.1 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]102.03 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Sunday 27 January 2013[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Marítimo v Rio Ave (16:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.6 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.2 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.05 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]102.50 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Moreirense FC v Paços de Ferreira (16:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.05 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.06 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]102.65 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Vitória de Setúbal v Nacional da Madeira (16:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.2 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.52 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.34 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Sporting CP v Vitoria de Guimaraes (18:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.57 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.1 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 7.7 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]101.01 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Estoril-Praia v Olhanense (20:15 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.05 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.3 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.33 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]102.16 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Monday 28 January 2013[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] FC Porto v Gil Vicente (20:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.2 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 8.4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 20 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.24 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[McNasara]

Re: Portugal > Super Liga > 2012/13 Braga v Benfica Definitely the most interesting games this weekend. Benfica struggling with Porto (have easy opponent in this round) for the title, while Braga is behind them - in third place. Home team has a few defensive problems since Paulo Vinicius is suspended, while other two centre backs Douglãо and Nuno Coelho are injured. On the other side, Jorge Jesus (Benfica coach) probably won't be able to count on Garay (regular central defender). With these absences of both sides with very dangerous strikers, I can see high-scoring game in Braga. Think that anything above 1.90 is a value for over 2,5 goals, but I'll wait for the opinion of our Portuguese. Btw Drac Blau, are you from Portugal? :)

[Drac Blau]

Re: Portugal > Super Liga > 2012/13

Braga v Benfica Definitely the most interesting games this weekend. Benfica struggling with Porto (have easy opponent in this round) for the title, while Braga is behind them - in third place. Home team has a few defensive problems since Paulo Vinicius is suspended, while other two centre backs Douglãо and Nuno Coelho are injured. On the other side, Jorge Jesus (Benfica coach) probably won't be able to count on Garay (regular central defender). With these absences of both sides with very dangerous strikers, I can see high-scoring game in Braga. Think that anything above 1.90 is a value for over 2,5 goals, but I'll wait for the opinion of our Portuguese. Btw Drac Blau, are you from Portugal? :)

Braga– Benfica would be definitely the top match of his weekend in Portugal. You've sumed up pretty well the situation of both teams. Important absence in defense for Braga, as Paulo Vinicius is their best central back in my opinion. Who will pair up with Haas in the middle of the defense? There are three plausible options: 1-Sasso. This young and promising defender was signed from Beira-mar this week and he is training with the rest of the team since Wednesday. It would be a very risky option as he is still trying to adjust but I reckon is the most probable one. 2-Custodio. This holding midfielder have played as center back some times during his career and with good results. However this would mean that Djamal would have to deputise in the midfield instead of Custodio and to solve one problem Peseiro might create another one. 3-Anibal. He is a very inexperienced player belonging to Braga B but he has been on the bench several times and, unlike Sasso, he is very familiar with Braga's defensive system. I doubt that Peseiro takes his chanceswith Anibal in a very important game such as this one. Anyhow, Braga's defense has been far from tight (a classic in every Peseiro's teams) and I guess the missing of Vinicius will only enhance this situation. In 15 league games Braga has managed only 4 clean sheets! On Benfica's side the missing of Garay is also important but with some nuances: The return of Luiso has given some extr consistency to the team. Garay has been missing also in the last two matches against Moreirense and Academica and Luisao played along with Jardel in defense showing a decent understanding between both of them. I think that comparing both cases, Braga's weaker without Vinicius than Benfica without Garay. Apart from this, I don't expect many changes in both teams. Braga will definitely go for the win as it's their last chance to prove they can fight for the title and play eye to eye with another candidate. They have played a great match in Benfica's stadium in August with a well deserved draw (2-2) and they also did a great performance against Porto at home only loosing on the last minute of the match for the league and defeating them in the cup albeit Porto fielding a mixed squad in this one. Also, from Benfica's side they know that this would be a very close title race between them and Porto. They have been tied up in top of the league since end of September and I guess that both title contenders feel that, the first one dropping points would give a very big psychological advantage to the other, so no mistakes allowed. These are always very emotional and intense encounters where sometimes current form or table position is not relevant. I expect a very fought match, several cards to be shown, attacking mentality from both teams and, taking all of this in consideration, an over mach is a very probable outcome, indeed. In my opinion odds such as @1,95 offered from Bet365 are worth to take. By the way, I'm originally Portuguese but living in Spain for the past 15 years so a big fun of these latin, passionate and sometimes crazy matches. :-)

[McNasara]

Re: Portugal > Super Liga > 2012/13 Ok, odds have risen too much and this is the time to bet, IMO. Braga v Benfica over 2,5 @2.01 pinnacle low stake

[Simeon Borisof]

Re: Portugal > Super Liga > 2012/13

Ok, odds have risen too much and this is the time to bet, IMO. Braga v Benfica over 2,5 @2.01 pinnacle low stake

My advice is don't be so confident on over 2.5.Most often bookies are not so stupid to rise the odds.I mean there could be some changes in the squads which we are not aware of and could affect the game plan go the other way.Most often derby matches especially in Portugal and Netherland produce many goals and i find it strange that the bookies are so generous about this one.GL whatever you decide and no offence,mate!

[Fedar]

Re: Portugal > Super Liga > 2012/13

My advice is don't be so confident on over 2.5.Most often bookies are not so stupid to rise the odds.I mean there could be some changes in the squads which we are not aware of and could affect the game plan go the other way.Most often derby matches especially in Portugal and Netherland produce many goals and i find it strange that the bookies are so generous about this one.GL whatever you decide and no offence' date='mate![/quote'] I doubt that bookies would know a change in squad which is not publicly accessible - after all it is the information and communication era and literally minutes after information get released, it is publicized all over the internet. And I don't believe that bookies have the policy of keeping agents in dressing rooms of team to get early info. It is just a very common bookie reaction whenever two teams very close to each other at the top of the table meet. It was the same for Benfica - Porto - odds of 2.10 for overs despite that these teams are very high scorers and almost all of their recent H2H had produced "over 2.5".

[Drac Blau]

Re: Portugal > Super Liga > 2012/13 ACADEMICA– BEIRA-Mar Edinho anytime goalscorer @2,62 Bet365 For tonight's match, coach Pedro Emanuel should organize his Academica in 4-3-3 with wingers Amessan and Marinho serving striker Edinho who is on fire lately. He is Academica's top scorer with 9 goals in 14 matches and in the last 2 rounds of Portuguese league, he managed to score 4goals (1 against Nacional starting from the bench and a hat-trick against Setúbal). With the absence of Cisse he will play from the start tonight, relegating Saleiro to the bench. Academica is facing Beira-Mar who is one of the worst defenses of Portugal with15 goals against in 8 away league matches. Moreover, they lost two very important regular defenders this week: center back Sasso was transferred to Beira-Mar and left back Joaozinho was transferred toSporting. I think this will create extra problems to a mistaken prone defense and, if we mix all of this information with the generous odds offered, I think it's well worth a shot.

[malabgd]

Re: Portugal > Super Liga > 2012/13 Injuries and suspensions Sporting Braga v SL Benfica Sporting Braga: Vinícius (12/0 d), Coelho (6/0 d), Douglão (10/2 d), Djamal (6/0 m), Elderson (8/0 d) SL Benfica: Garay (14/0 d), Luisinho (2/1 d), Martins (7/0 m)

[McNasara]

Re: Portugal > Super Liga > 2012/13

ACADEMICAРBEIRA-Mar Edinho anytime goalscorer @2,62 Bet365 For tonight's match, coach Pedro Emanuel should organize his Academica in 4-3-3 with wingers Amessan and Marinho serving striker Edinho who is on fire lately. He is Academica's top scorer with 9 goals in 14 matches and in the last 2 rounds of Portuguese league, he managed to score 4goals (1 against Nacional starting from the bench and a hat-trick against Set̼bal). With the absence of Cisse he will play from the start tonight, relegating Saleiro to the bench. Academica is facing Beira-Mar who is one of the worst defenses of Portugal with15 goals against in 8 away league matches. Moreover, they lost two very important regular defenders this week: center back Sasso was transferred to Beira-Mar and left back Joaozinho was transferred toSporting. I think this will create extra problems to a mistaken prone defense and, if we mix all of this information with the generous odds offered, I think it's well worth a shot.

:clap:clap

[Drac Blau]

Re: Portugal > Super Liga > 2012/13 ESTORIL- OLHANENSE Estoril (-0,5) AH @1,975 Bet365 Last week I backed Estoril as well and I lost. The premisses of this game are almost the same as the previous one: Estoril is facing a much weaker team with a lot of important players missing. Last match against Gil Vicente at home started really well, with Estoril creating a lot of chances and scoring an early goal. However, in the middle of first half Jefferson (Estoril's left-back) gave a handball inside of the box. Penalty, 1-1 and reduced to 10 men for the last 65minutes of the match. Despite this, Estoril kept attacking to a total of 20 shots and 11 corners. It wasn't enough and match ended 1-2. I'm pretty sure that they will bounce back and grab a win tomorrow. They have no important injury worries, only the suspension of Jefferson. Tiago Gomes will play as left back. Olhanense is a mess since the beginning of the season. So far the change of coach have made them no good with two lost games in a row. To make things worse for coach Cajuda, only 16 players are available for this match forcing him to call two youngsters to fill the bench. Important players such as Nuno Piloto, Fernando Alexandre, Abdi, Ivanilo and Yontcha are injured and Babanco, David Silva and Djaniny are on international duty. If we look at the players that were called up, besides the two youngsters, we can see forward Djalmir who have ended his carrer last season and resumed training again a few weeks back to help the team and defenders Luis Filipe and Mauricio who are returning after long term injuries and can't be in top form. Last week defeat makes me even more confident that Estoril will press harder to win this match and they are clear favorites to do so against an inferior team. SETUBAL– NACIONAL Over2,5 @1,90 Bet365 If we look plainly at the stats we can see that both teams tend to go over: 5 out of 7 Setúbal games at home went over and 6 out of 8 away games from Nacional went over. These teams are the worst defenders in Portugal having conceded 28 (Nacional) and 31 (Setúbal) goals after 15 matches. On the other hand, Nacional are the sixth highest scorers with 20 goals and Setúbal are the seventh with 19 goals scored. They have already played each other twice this season: a league game in Madeira which ended 2-2 and a cup one in Setúbal that also ended over (3-1). In the last 3 seasons all encounters between them in Setúbal ended over also (0-3/2-1/2-1). Looking deeper at the teams we can also see that Nacional will field a very depleted defense for this match. They have 3 important players suspended: Revson (holding midfielder); Mexer (center-back) and Joao Aurélio (right-back). Coach Manuel Machado will be forced to make several changes which can lead to more spaces for the ever present and experienced Seúbal striker: Meyong. Nacional have still a lot of power upfront with Rondon, Candeias and the return of creative midfielder Diego Barcellos. Against the worst defense of the league they should score. Setúbal has also some absences on its own but are less important. Midfielder Bruno Gallo and winger Jorginho are also both suspended. While Bruno Gallo is a non-important player and could be easily replaced, Jorginho is a regular attacker. Cristiano will probably play instead and he is also very offensive minded and his aggressiveness and speed will likely create a lot of problems for Nacional. I finish saying that both teams are very close to relegation positions and they need to go for three points which could lead to several scoring options.

[McNasara]

Re: Portugal > Super Liga > 2012/13

Ok, odds have risen too much and this is the time to bet, IMO. Braga v Benfica over 2,5 @2.01 pinnacle low stake

1:2 :cigar:cigar:cigar

[malabgd]

Re: Portugal > Super Liga > 2012/13 Injuries and suspensions Sporting Lisboa v Vitória Guimarães Sporting Lisboa: Insúa (13/0 d) (left the club), Marcos Rojo (14/0 d), Schaars (5/0 m), Martins (4/0 m) Vitória Guimarães: Olímpio (12/0 m), Kanu (2/0 d), André (13/1 m), Hernâni (0/0 f), Amorim (0/0 d), Ribeiro (11/3 m), NDiaye (9/1 d), Soudani (8/2 f), El Adoua (12/0 d) GD Estoril v SC Olhanense GD Estoril: João Paulo (7/0 f), Hugo Leal (6/0 m), Jefferson (15/2 d) SC Olhanense: Fernando Alexandre (14/1 m), Piloto (8/1 m), Ivanildo (9/2 f), Abdi (13/4 f), Yontcha (12/1 f), Babanco (11/0 m), David Silva (9/1 m), Djaniny (8/0 f)

[vlaso]

Re: Portugal > Super Liga > 2012/13 Sporting is big name in Portugal bud bad resaults this season. But seems they start play when coach Jesualdo Ferreira come (won last two league games and one in cup). Pranjic is on loan to Celta while they sold Insua (df 13/0) to Atl Madrid but they bring Joãozinho from Beira Mar (df 14/1). Marcos Rojo (df 14/0), Andre Martins (mf 4/0), Stijn Schaars (mf 5/0) are out Vitoria without: Joao Amorim, Mahamadou N’Diaye (df 9/1), Kanu Valerio (df 2/0), Issam El Adoua (mf 12/0), Dinis Dias, Leonel Olimpio (mf 12/0), Andre Andre (mf 13/1), Hernani Fortes (mf), Hilal Soudani (att 8/2). Addy (df 11/1). They bring Lassina Touré (Tourizense), Hernâni (Atlético) and Jona (Ourense – on loan) but there was also leavings: Matej Delac, João Gonçalves, Rodrigo Defendi, Marcelo Toscano (att 10/1), Milan Lalkovic (att 8/0)

[Drac Blau]

Re: Portugal > Super Liga > 2012/13

ESTORIL- OLHANENSE Estoril (-0,5) AH @1,975 Bet365 Last week I backed Estoril as well and I lost. The premisses of this game are almost the same as the previous one: Estoril is facing a much weaker team with a lot of important players missing. Last match against Gil Vicente at home started really well, with Estoril creating a lot of chances and scoring an early goal. However, in the middle of first half Jefferson (Estoril's left-back) gave a handball inside of the box. Penalty, 1-1 and reduced to 10 men for the last 65minutes of the match. Despite this, Estoril kept attacking to a total of 20 shots and 11 corners. It wasn't enough and match ended 1-2. I'm pretty sure that they will bounce back and grab a win tomorrow. They have no important injury worries, only the suspension of Jefferson. Tiago Gomes will play as left back. Olhanense is a mess since the beginning of the season. So far the change of coach have made them no good with two lost games in a row. To make things worse for coach Cajuda, only 16 players are available for this match forcing him to call two youngsters to fill the bench. Important players such as Nuno Piloto, Fernando Alexandre, Abdi, Ivanilo and Yontcha are injured and Babanco, David Silva and Djaniny are on international duty. If we look at the players that were called up, besides the two youngsters, we can see forward Djalmir who have ended his carrer last season and resumed training again a few weeks back to help the team and defenders Luis Filipe and Mauricio who are returning after long term injuries and can't be in top form. Last week defeat makes me even more confident that Estoril will press harder to win this match and they are clear favorites to do so against an inferior team. SETUBALРNACIONAL Over2,5 @1,90 Bet365 If we look plainly at the stats we can see that both teams tend to go over: 5 out of 7 Set̼bal games at home went over and 6 out of 8 away games from Nacional went over. These teams are the worst defenders in Portugal having conceded 28 (Nacional) and 31 (Set̼bal) goals after 15 matches. On the other hand, Nacional are the sixth highest scorers with 20 goals and Set̼bal are the seventh with 19 goals scored. They have already played each other twice this season: a league game in Madeira which ended 2-2 and a cup one in Set̼bal that also ended over (3-1). In the last 3 seasons all encounters between them in Set̼bal ended over also (0-3/2-1/2-1). Looking deeper at the teams we can also see that Nacional will field a very depleted defense for this match. They have 3 important players suspended: Revson (holding midfielder); Mexer (center-back) and Joao Aur̩lio (right-back). Coach Manuel Machado will be forced to make several changes which can lead to more spaces for the ever present and experienced Se̼bal striker: Meyong. Nacional have still a lot of power upfront with Rondon, Candeias and the return of creative midfielder Diego Barcellos. Against the worst defense of the league they should score. Set̼bal has also some absences on its own but are less important. Midfielder Bruno Gallo and winger Jorginho are also both suspended. While Bruno Gallo is a non-important player and could be easily replaced, Jorginho is a regular attacker. Cristiano will probably play instead and he is also very offensive minded and his aggressiveness and speed will likely create a lot of problems for Nacional. I finish saying that both teams are very close to relegation positions and they need to go for three points which could lead to several scoring options.

Both bets lost. Once agan Estoril reduced to ten men and after winning 3-1 they conceded the draw. Setúbal and Nacional was an open match according to reports but many chances missed from Setúbal didn't allow the over. :-(

[Carovie]

Re: Portugal > Super Liga > 2012/13 I followed the match, and what a bad luck with Estoril, how they allowed the victory to escape from them

[McNasara]

Re: Portugal > Super Liga > 2012/13 It will be sad to see Liedson in Porto jersey :\

[McNasara]

Re: Portugal > Super Liga > 2012/13 [TABLE=class: couponTable]

[TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Saturday 2 February 2013[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Rio Ave v Sporting CP (18:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.2 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.3 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]104.14 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Vitoria de Guimaraes v FC Porto (20:30 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 11 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.36 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]104.65 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Sunday 3 February 2013[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Gil Vicente v Marítimo (16:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.2 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.9 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]105.73 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Nacional da Madeira v Moreirense FC (16:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.72 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.7 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5.75 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]102.31 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Olhanense v Académica de Coimbra (16:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.55 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.15 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.9 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]105.44 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Beira-Mar v Sporting de Braga (18:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.8 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.75 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]106.55 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Benfica v Vitória de Setúbal (20:15 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.1 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 10 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 19 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]106.17 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Monday 4 February 2013[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Paços de Ferreira v Estoril-Praia (20:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.2 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.2 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]105.06 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[stressina87]

Re: Portugal > Super Liga > 2012/13 Drac Blau what on Pacos-Benfica on Cup game? AW? Thanks

[Drac Blau]

Re: Portugal > Super Liga > 2012/13

Drac Blau what on Pacos-Benfica on Cup game? AW? Thanks

Paços is doing an outstanding season. Very tight in defense (2nd best in the league), organized in midfield and dangerous in counter attack. In my opinion they play better on the road albeit having made great results at home too. They are in very good form and arrive with a huge moral boost after demolishing Moreirense 0-5. Benfica's attack is very hard to stop, lots of quick, virtous and technical players upfront. For tomorow Cardozo is injured and won't play but it didn't stop Benfica to a very important win in Braga 1-2. Lima will play alone upfront with Gaitan supporting and Salvio + Ola John in the wings. it's a big no bet for me specially if we think that the semis of portuguese cup are played in 2 matches. The second match will be played in Benfica's stadium in the 17th of April (!!!!!). So, I guess Benfica will go for a more cautious approach considering that they have a second match to fix things if necessary...