Serie A > September 1/2

[Sir Puntalot]

[TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617] [TR] [TH=class: firstColumn]Saturday 1 September 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Torino v Pescara (17:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.95[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.9[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.04 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Bologna v AC Milan (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.1[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.03 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Sunday 2 September 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Udinese v Juventus (17:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.65[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.6[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.95[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.50 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Cagliari v Atalanta (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.2[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.25[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.8[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.54 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Catania v Genoa (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.25[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.7[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.27 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Internazionale v AS Roma (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.12[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.45[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.1[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.55 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Lazio v Palermo (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.91[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.6[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.9[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.54 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Napoli v Fiorentina (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.75[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.6[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]5.8[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.16 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Parma v Chievo (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.12[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.25[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.00 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Sampdoria v Siena (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.95[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.85[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.26 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[azzurini1976]

Re: Italy - Serie A >September 1-2 Already engaged with two bets: Sampdoria -0.5 @ 1.89 Siena one of weakest sides in A, no Destro means toothless attack. Sampa with excellent goalie and strong and hard working midfield, if Maxi will be ready from 1st minute, he can add a lot to already pumped up Eder in attack. Odds not the best, but Siena my top fav. for going down, Inter -0.5 @ 1.99 As already written, Roma probably not yet ready and Inter showed maturity and tactical stability in Pescara game. And they have Milito and Sneijder back in form. One of Scudetto favs against team in making on home pitch. I could bet on this down to 1.90 ish odds. Edit to add: Lazio -0.75 @ 1.93 Saw the Palermo Napoli game in ffw, and i can say that Napoli were unlucky not to have won with more goals. Palermo as expected even more crap at back (Silvestre and Balzareti gone) and they did perform as relagtion candidates. Lazio organized and with Hernanes in form and Klose healthy. This was one of first games on my card to play, but needed to see the Palermo game to decide.

[ultravires]

Re: Serie A > September 1/2 I definitely agree on Samp over Siena for this weekend. I also tend to favour Inter in their match over Roma but I think I am more comfortable with playing goals in that game. In all likelihood it is going to have to be over 3 or 3.5 goals, as the bookies aren't idiots. I also favour both Napoli and Lazio over their opponents. Juve will probably squeeze past Udinese, but I would expect it to be tight. Much to ponder but I think Samp are solid play, as well as goals in Inter-Roma.

[azzurini1976]

Re: Italy - Serie A >September 1-2

Already engaged with two bets: Sampdoria -0.5 @ 1.89 Siena one of weakest sides in A, no Destro means toothless attack. Sampa with excellent goalie and strong and hard working midfield, if Maxi will be ready from 1st minute, he can add a lot to already pumped up Eder in attack. Odds not the best, but Siena my top fav. for going down, Inter -0.5 @ 1.99 As already written, Roma probably not yet ready and Inter showed maturity and tactical stability in Pescara game. And they have Milito and Sneijder back in form. One of Scudetto favs against team in making on home pitch. I could bet on this down to 1.90 ish odds. Edit to add: Lazio -0.75 @ 1.93 Saw the Palermo Napoli game in ffw, and i can say that Napoli were unlucky not to have won with more goals. Palermo as expected even more crap at back (Silvestre and Balzareti gone) and they did perform as relagtion candidates. Lazio organized and with Hernanes in form and Klose healthy. This was one of first games on my card to play, but needed to see the Palermo game to decide.

I adding 4th one. Wanted to wait a bit longer, but imo Bojans transfer might change the odds in wrong direction. Milan -0.25 @ 1.92 I have waited for odds to raise, well today the hcp changed from -0.5 to -0.25 and i wont specualte any more. Milan is the play. Why? reasons are simple. Bologna probably the worst team in first round, without concept, without game and with 1 shot on the goal in 87 minute (someting like that). Ramirez is banned after red card, their key man Ramirez on way to England, thei star transfer Guarente out of shape and this means problems for Bologna. About Milan a lot was said, but i do expect similar game as in round 1, when Milan pressed, had problems and lost. But in tihs case, i dont believe Bologna will be so calm and organised as Samp, also Bologna dont have quality goalie as Samp has. Another edge is motivation, Galliani will drink blood whole week and try to motivate players to get back to winning ways. Bojan is coming to town and he might be the key, with moving Robinho away from duties of scoring goals (i have more chances of scoring with Mila Kunis than he to score a goal) to passing and making room on wings. Anyway, probably weird bet, but i like it, going against money and against odds as i really do see value in those odds.

[Dylan]

Re: Serie A > September 1/2 I’ve not had much time to ponder these but my early thoughts are;

• Pescara look a little over priced in the battle of the two newly promoted teams. I saw most of there match with Inter and they played ok in the opening stages. The two quick goals took the drive out of them, but they stayed focused and forced a number of decent saves from Castallezzi throughout the match. Torino dominated against Siena, but looked a little toothless in front of goal, not creating too many clear cut chances. I feel this game could be tight, and don’t see the reason for such a big difference in odds. The +0.5 or maybe +1 AH on Pescara could be worth a look depending on price.

• I also agree with Azzurini’s and Ultravires thoughts on Samp. Siena looked really poor vs Torino and they allowed a pretty mediocre side to dominate them and were probably lucky they didn’t have enough creativity / firepower to get a win. Samp looked strong in midfield vs Milan, Poli is a classy player and Obiang and Tissone look combative and I would expect them to get a hold of this game, just like Torino did. If they can then they have players with a bit of quality upfront who should be able to get goals. The home win is around 1.85 now, not great odds but something that looks very likely.

• Also might have a further look at both Atalanta and Genoa in there away games. Atalanta were decent on the road last season, before there campaign ran out of steam. However they have managed to keep most of their key players and have a tactical style which is ideal for away matches. Cagliari are normally quite slow starters and only won one of their first 8 home matches last season. They didn’t impress last weekend either and it looks as if Larrivey might be on his way to Udinese as well. So I might have a look at Atalanta on the handicap here.

• Genoa attacking wise looked very impressive against Cagliari last Sunday. Jankovic and Immobile creating lots of chances and they really should have scored more than they did. If they keep putting in attacking performances like that then they will cause a lot of problems to teams on the road. They also have Gilardino to come back into the fold as well. Again handicaps may be worth a look, but also goals. Despite creating many chances last week, they let Cagliairi have a fair few opportunities themselves and some good saves from Frey kept them in it. Catania played out that 2-2 draw with Roma , and whilst I didn’t see the game I doubt they will be as well organised as a team as they were with Montella at the helm.

Again overall there does seem to be quite a lot that interest this weekend. I’ve ruled out Napoli at the moment but if Fiorentina were to lose Jovetic and Nastastic his week then it may be worth looking at at Napoli again. I do also feel that Palermo may also be a bit too high, but Azzurini is right to point out the iffy looking defence. However if they could get Illicic and Brienza back fit for the weekend then they could cause Lazio’s defence some problems. I’m not sure what the fitness of those two is at the moment but the overs might be worth a look if they are available. Milan is an interesting one too. On paper the odds look high against a lower mid table team without 2 key players, but I’m worried that Allegri has lost the plot / patience with the board. His team selection and tactical decisions were pretty poor in that Sampdoria game. Who knows what he might do next.

[Mindfulness]

Re: Serie A > September 1/2 I actually think this is quite a tough looking card and don't see much +ev in the prices. Samp @ 9/10 is probably takeable for reasons already stated and I think Azzurini's Milan -0.25 @ 9/10 is an interesting one. Milan may well fare better on the road at present as they should get more opportunities to counter-attack. They will probably also be happy to get away from the San Siro where there is a somewhat negative atmosphere at the momment. Dylan has already highlighted the main risk element which I agree with, there could be an Allegri/board meltdown going on behind the scenes so there could be a few more branches to snap before they hit the ground. Agree with Dylan on Pescara, +0.75 @ 4/5 may just about be worth taking and if I make any play on this card it will probably be that. As I said before though, nothing really jumps out at me and so I may well sit out this week. I like my bets to feel automatic rather than speculative and this looks like a speculator card.

[azzurini1976]

Re: Serie A > September 1/2

I actually think this is quite a tough looking card and don't see much +ev in the prices. Samp @ 9/10 is probably takeable for reasons already stated and I think Azzurini's Milan -0.25 @ 9/10 is an interesting one. Milan may well fare better on the road at present as they should get more opportunities to counter-attack. They will probably also be happy to get away from the San Siro where there is a somewhat negative atmosphere at the momment. Dylan has already highlighted the main risk element which I agree with, there could be an Allegri/board meltdown going on behind the scenes so there could be a few more branches to snap before they hit the ground. Agree with Dylan on Pescara, +0.75 @ 4/5 may just about be worth taking and if I make any play on this card it will probably be that. As I said before though, nothing really jumps out at me and so I may well sit out this week. I like my bets to feel automatic rather than speculative and this looks like a speculator card.

For me its quite on the contrary. Lazio, Samp and Inter game popped out of the card immediatelly. Only Milan might be a bit speculative, but i really wont be surprised if they win it 3-0 at the end. For Pescara game, i have much differentiated opinion. Sure in the battle of two promoted teams, it is bound to be a tight game, but there are two main reasons i dont like Pescara (and believe Toro will win). Firstly, Pescara team lacks experience, i wont say that the team dont have quality, but they are just to young and will loose points because of that. Look at Inter game. Pescara totally dominated opening stages, and the bam, two goals and the game was finished, all the flair fro Pescara game was lost. Torino, far more experienced. Secondly, it is "return of the Mack" - return of Serie A football to second Torino team - so hell of a motivation for Toro and supporters, and again must mention, young Pescara team will be under pressure from opposition fans. Other game is Napoli game. In this one, i will wait, if Jovetic stays, then Fiore on +0.75 is huge value, as they were all over Udine in game one and should have won it far earlier than in 90th minute, but as said, waiting for transfer news, as Jovetic seems to be in great form.

[immortal--]

Re: Italy - Serie A >September 1-2

Bojan is coming to town and he might be the key' date=' with moving [b']Robinho away from duties of scoring goals (i have more chances of scoring with Mila Kunis than he to score a goal) to passing and making room on wings.

AC Milan News ‏@Milanello OFFICIAL: @oficialrobinho will be sidelined for the next 3-4 weeks due to an injury sustained to his right thigh This is big blow for Milan - Robinho was the best player for Milan vs Samp. He have nice movement and dribbles, but he got injured while having a poor shot in the center...

[Mindfulness]

Re: Serie A > September 1/2

For me its quite on the contrary. Lazio, Samp and Inter game popped out of the card immediatelly. Only Milan might be a bit speculative, but i really wont be surprised if they win it 3-0 at the end. For Pescara game, i have much differentiated opinion. Sure in the battle of two promoted teams, it is bound to be a tight game, but there are two main reasons i dont like Pescara (and believe Toro will win). Firstly, Pescara team lacks experience, i wont say that the team dont have quality, but they are just to young and will loose points because of that. Look at Inter game. Pescara totally dominated opening stages, and the bam, two goals and the game was finished, all the flair fro Pescara game was lost. Torino, far more experienced. Secondly, it is "return of the Mack" - return of Serie A football to second Torino team - so hell of a motivation for Toro and supporters, and again must mention, young Pescara team will be under pressure from opposition fans. Other game is Napoli game. In this one, i will wait, if Jovetic stays, then Fiore on +0.75 is huge value, as they were all over Udine in game one and should have won it far earlier than in 90th minute, but as said, waiting for transfer news, as Jovetic seems to be in great form.

I'm certainly not disputing any of your picks, I think they're all totally logical but my evaluation of the card is one of caution for this gameweek. It's probably the wrong stance since everyone is quite positive about this week, I have to go with my feeling ultimately. Yes I think we will have to agree to disagree on the Torino V Pescara game. Pescara are setup pretty much exactly the same way as last year, I agree entirely about having too many youngsters in the side but they were ultimately hurt in the Inter game because of Inter's outstanding attacking play. Torino simply don't have the same level of menace and I actually think these Pescara players look pretty fearless so I don't see them feeling the pressure from the crowd. Home advantage may not be as big as you think for Tornio but we will have to wait and see. What marginal value there is in that game falls on the away side imo. Anyway you argue the opposing view well so I expect this game will end up in the no bet category for me aswell. P.S. Maybe time to open up the Serie B campaign this weekend, be interested to hear your views later this week on the thread, I'm running over some of last weeks games at the momment.

[Dylan]

Re: Serie A > September 1/2

I also agree with Azzurini’s and Ultravires thoughts on Samp. Siena looked really poor vs Torino and they allowed a pretty mediocre side to dominate them and were probably lucky they didn’t have enough creativity / firepower to get a win. Samp looked strong in midfield vs Milan, Poli is a classy player and Obiang and Tissone look combative and I would expect them to get a hold of this game, just like Torino did. If they can then they have players with a bit of quality upfront who should be able to get goals. The home win is around 1.85 now, not great odds but something that looks very likely.

Have just taken Sampdoria to win 1.85 at William Hills (4 / 10 units). For all the reasons stated above and by others in this thread. Having watched Udinese again tonight they were no better than in the first leg vs Braga and i've got huge concerns for them this season. The whole of the last month / pre season has been focused on CL qualification, but they've failed to get that and you wonder how they will be able to pick themselves up from that. Could we see more players going before the window shuts (Armero has been in the rumor mill all summer, so could go I guess. It may be best after tonight misses, he looked distraught at the end), could we see the manager go? It may sound over the top but Guidolin has stated previously that he finds the stress of the job hard and you imagine he may have stayed around to have a go in the Champions League, but again they've missed the boat and if they keep selling his best players then he's unlikely to get another chance anytime soon you would feel. Even of none of that happens they will be at least be physically and emotionally knackered for the Juve game, and its not a team you want to be playing in that state as you'll always be chasing the ball. In normal circumstances I wouldn't have bothered with Juve at such low odds, but after seeing what Udinese are offering this season I might go back for a second look at what's available.

[ultravires]

Re: Serie A > September 1/2 I think you are right to consider Juventus Dylan, but ultimately I don't think the odds are there for me. They are already 1.80 and will only get shorter. Udinese are a broken team after last nights devastating loss. Guidolin himself was close to tears. It is such a shame, and it really doesn't strike as a situation in which the coach riles the players up for the next match. I suppose this creates a fairly severe morale factor that could mean some people see value in the odds. I still think a team of XI players who play in the style of Udinese can cause problems for Juventus given their lack of potency in front of goal. I can just about see why someone would back them at 1.80-ish, but I'd move quickly if I wanted to get on them. I too am becoming interested in Milan -0.25. I think there is value on that line. They still have their fair share of problems and I don't think Bojan will fix that, but he is another option, probably preferable to some of their options. If they play Boateng in midfield alongside Montolivo and Nocerino then I will play them. That would mean rushing Bojan into the side with El Sha to flank Pazzini. I could get on that. If Allegri plays Boateng in the hole behind two of three strikers then I will be hesitant. Creativity would be a serious issue in a predictable set up. Looking at this card, I see a lot of gut under 2.5 matches. The default lines for a lot of them are U2.25 at the mo but there is still food for thought. I can see Nap's dishing Fiorentina a reality check, but the value isn't there at the mo.

[SALVO7ITALY]

Re: Serie A > September 1/2 Napoli looked very good last week and are notoriously good at home. Fiorentina struggled to beat a 2nd string Udinese team last week and are very much a team in transition. So easy win for Napoli!!

[ultravires]

Re: Serie A > September 1/2 Maybe so Salvo, but I don't see it being easy. Napoli are striking me as the second best prepared team at the moment. Not to say that they are the second best, but that they are playing closest to their potential - behind Juve IMO. They are very well settled and adept on the counter attack, as we all know. Fiorentina's strengths are clear. They have a ball playing midfield with JoJo up front. Besides that, there is little that stands out. They still lack a proper DM who can break up the play. That will lead to them getting caught out on the counter at times. Cassani and Pasqual are decent defenders and worse wing-backs, so there is room for exploitation again. For long periods they were struggling to create any clear chances against Udinese, needing a deflected shot to draw level. So while I think they have had a decent mercato, and have certainly improved, Napoli are by far the better team at the moment IMO. I would play at odds around 1.90 but they may never get there. On Udinese there is further information regarding the fall out from last night. Guidolin did not show up for training today, but according to the Pozzo's, is staying on as manager. It does seem as though this team may have been broken by last night. They now know that they are resigned to a mediocre season. Di Natale may struggle for motivation as a fading force. Maicosuel must surely be feeling terrible having missed his penalty in such a manner. Armero too will feel down as he missed a gilt edged chance in a comical fashion. There will be a terrible feeling right through the camp. How successfully they can pick themselves up for Sunday will be key.

[ultravires]

Re: Serie A > September 1/2 Nastasic is in Manchester to complete his move to City.

[TheItalianStyle]

Re: Serie A > September 1/2 Milan -0.25 @1.84 pinnacle 3/10 Imho this odd is a a value. Sure that Milan have some problems but Bologna have same situations. Di vaio left but dont' buy a substitute. Ramirez want to go in other team and imho Bologna at this moment is a poor team. In last two days Milan buy Bojan and Niang who are decent strikers and saturday Pazzini probably play. Imho odd is too high...

[TheItalianStyle]

Re: Serie A > September 1/2 Torino-Pescara over @2.15 pinnacle 3/10 Imho is a value odd. Both teams are newcomers but Torino have some players with more experience than Pescara, a team full of new players and with a new coach, Stroppa, without experience in Serie A. Both team have a play more offensive (Torino usually play with 4-2-4 scheme, more offensive but also Pescara is a team that try to show a brilliant play). However Pescara have a poor team mainly in defence and so I think that in this match we can see more goals

[azzurini1976]

Re: Serie A > September 1/2

Torino-Pescara over @2.15 pinnacle 3/10 Imho is a value odd. Both teams are newcomers but Torino have some players with more experience than Pescara, a team full of new players and with a new coach, Stroppa, without experience in Serie A. Both team have a play more offensive (Torino usually play with 4-2-4 scheme, more offensive but also Pescara is a team that try to show a brilliant play). However Pescara have a poor team mainly in defence and so I think that in this match we can see more goals

Odds are good for your bet, and I would back it/play it. BUT no one cant forget that this IS the relegation six pointer. Nad those games are usually a low scoring game. But agree odds offer value + everything else (teams, tactics, not gelled defences) speak for goals in this game.

[azzurini1976]

Re: Serie A > September 1/2

Nastasic is in Manchester to complete his move to City.

Fiore on +0.75 which i liked is out of the question atm. Now i like Napoli more but odds look to short. So probably this one should be optional as a live bet game.

[TheItalianStyle]

Re: Serie A > September 1/2 Lazio-Palermo over 2.00 asia 3/10 Palermo with a new defense and a new form with three defenders Munoz, Von Bergen and Cetto. IMHO is not very solid. In attack can, however, be very dangerous. Miccoli, Ilicic and Hernandez are very fast and can create problems for the defense of New York. Coach Petkovic is still inexperienced in Serie A and playing very offensive may encounter problems. I think it can be a very spectacular match with at least 3 goalsPalermo with a new defense and a new form with three defenders Munoz, Von Bergen and Cetto. IMHO is not very solid. In attack can, however, be very dangerous. Miccoli, Ilicic and Hernandez are very fast and can create problems for the defense of New York. Coach Petkovic is still inexperienced in Serie A and playing very offensive may encounter problems. I think it can be a very spectacular match with at least 3 goals

[TheItalianStyle]

Re: Serie A > September 1/2 Imho is too early to speak about "six points" match. Serie A just started and I dont'think that both teams play thinking at this aspect.

[SALVO7ITALY]

Re: Serie A > September 1/2

Maybe so Salvo, but I don't see it being easy. Napoli are striking me as the second best prepared team at the moment. Not to say that they are the second best, but that they are playing closest to their potential - behind Juve IMO. They are very well settled and adept on the counter attack, as we all know. Fiorentina's strengths are clear. They have a ball playing midfield with JoJo up front. Besides that, there is little that stands out. They still lack a proper DM who can break up the play. That will lead to them getting caught out on the counter at times. Cassani and Pasqual are decent defenders and worse wing-backs, so there is room for exploitation again. For long periods they were struggling to create any clear chances against Udinese, needing a deflected shot to draw level. So while I think they have had a decent mercato, and have certainly improved, Napoli are by far the better team at the moment IMO. I would play at odds around 1.90 but they may never get there. On Udinese there is further information regarding the fall out from last night. Guidolin did not show up for training today, but according to the Pozzo's, is staying on as manager. It does seem as though this team may have been broken by last night. They now know that they are resigned to a mediocre season. Di Natale may struggle for motivation as a fading force. Maicosuel must surely be feeling terrible having missed his penalty in such a manner. Armero too will feel down as he missed a gilt edged chance in a comical fashion. There will be a terrible feeling right through the camp. How successfully they can pick themselves up for Sunday will be key.

I think Napoli will surprise alot people this year. They got rid of Lavezzi to make the side more organised because we were too loose last year. Thats also another reason why we let Gargano go so we stop chasing the ball and just become an organised defense because we leaked goals last year due to this. So I disagree with you that we need another DM. I can see Napoli having an easy top three finish because Mazzari have now made us alot more structured and organised like Milan, Juventus and Inter. And also prob have alot of 1-nil scorelines.

[Dylan]

Re: Serie A > September 1/2 Well I think I’m going to take the chance on Juve. I’m a bit surprised that the price hasn’t dropped further, following that Champions League match and the fall out, especially with Guidolin missing training. The latest is that he appears to be staying on, but it has been a crazy week for them and with the focus up until Tuesday night being on Braga, I don’t know how prepared they will be for this match, especially with the manager not taking training. Fitness wise might be the biggest problem, they’ve struggled in the second halves of all their matches this season, and having had 120 hard minutes on Tuesday, it’s likely that a number of players may be rested for this one. The early info we’re getting indicates that its possible that Domizzi, Benatia, Pinzi, Fabbrini & Armero may not start. When you look at the team that could start and the situation around the club at the moment I just can’t see any hope for Udinese in this match. Juve on the other hand have got off to a good start this season, with a couple of wins in the league and the Supper Coppa. Whilst the still remain on the lookout for a new striker, they more or less still have the same strike force that were the second highest scorers in Serie A last season and Giovinco has been added into the mix as well. Defensive wise they perhaps haven’t been as impressive so far, they conceded twice to Napoli and whilst they kept a clean sheet vs Parma, the away side did cause them a few troubles. However Buffon and Cheillini, two stalwarts should be back for this game and Udinese are not the most offensive team anyway. It will also be interesting to see how Udinese cope with Lichtstiener. He was marshalled well by Armero in this fixture last season, but if the Colombian doesn’t start then I think he may cause them a lot of problems. He’s started the season on fire against Parma, winning a penalty and scoring and he’s the type of player who is key in exploiting the space on wings left by a 3 man defence. Domizzi may not start either and he also plays on that side of defence. Juventus to win 1.85 at William Hill (3.5 / 10 units)

[Kumanovac]

Re: Serie A > September 1/2 I agree with the boys playing Sampdoria and Inter. Sampdoria is a very well organised team and with the addition of Maxi they may be more lethal. Inter surprised me with their performance, they are not so loose like last year. Another thing is that Roma was weak, still in transition and with a very bad defence. What can you expect when Burdisso is your best defender? This week, I am going for goals instead of straight wins. Napoli-Viola is the first pick and it is based more on Viola. They have been very dangerous in attack, like never before. Borja is an excellent addition, i think that Ljajic will have a far better season than the previous and Jovetic is still hungry for fame. But their defense is pretty much weaker than the offense. I don't believe at any of their defenders or DM, to add that they are unfamiliar with each other. Napoli has also been a team expected for high results, although I think that this year there will be less goals in their games. Napoli BTS&Over @2,4 (at local) I think that there is not need to explain the same pick in the Inter game. Inter BTS&Over @1,85 Inter Team Over 1,5 @1,85 I also think that Lazio's and Genoa's matches can produce goals, but it may be too much. Juve is a big favourite too, as they are miles more stable team than Udinese.

[ultravires]

Re: Serie A > September 1/2 I have nailed my bets down in my mind, but I am waiting for optimum prices. I will give my explanations anyway. Udinese - Juventus I too am now following on Juventus. It has been discussed how badly Udinese must be feeling. They have had a couple of days to gather themselves but my gut tells me that it is not a situation to rile the players up. They are consigned to a mediocre season and will struggle to pick themselves up for this match. I'm not sure how physically affected they will be but there are doubts over Armero, Benatia and Domizzi. Armero is the key player because he is a driving player down the left. He would occupy lichsteiner as best he could, but without him playing, the Swiss man will raid down Juve's right hand side all match long. When you match the CM up it looks like a massacre. Vidal, Pirlo and Marchisio is not worth mentioning in the same breath as Pereyra, Faraoni and Willians. The first two are converted wide players and none of them come close in terms of quality. Asamoah has also hit the ground running on the left hand side and is the type of player who will rise to the occasion of playing against his old team. It is still fair to say that Juventus will struggle to convert chances but all over the pitch they look like they will utterly dominate Udinese. The home side also haven't looked as solid as previously. I can get on the away side in this one, but I can still only imagine a two goal margin at best. Napoli - Fiorentina I can't help but think Napoli are a gear or two above Fiorentina in terms of quality. They are already a fully functioning team that have played together for quite some time. They are certainly one of the best counter-attacking sides in the world and I see that as something that can undo Fiorentina here. Fiorentina's strengths lie in being on the ball. The only player they have that will scare Napoli is Jovetic. He is an incredible player who is really hard to play against, but besides him I think Napoli can handle everything they have. Aquilani, Pizzarro and Valero are not as good a trio as Hamsik, Inler and Behrami. In a nutshell, I think Napoli can cope with Fiorentina's attacking threat and I don't see how Fiorentina will be able to stop Napoli from counter-attacking. Maggio and Zuniga will own the wings, while Insigne and Cavani are a deadly duo. Nastasic has completed his move to City which is a blow for Fiorentina. They cannot immediately replace him. Roncaglia, Gonzalo Rodriguez and Hegazy are still establishing an understanding and Cavani will exploit any chances he gets.

[Dylan]

Re: Serie A > September 1/2 Did anyone see Catania last weekend? If so any thoughts? I'm still very interested in their match with Genoa on Sunday, either on the Genoa +0.5 at around 1.90, or maybe goals with the Genoa over 1.5 goals being priced at 3.5. The over 2.5 at evens is another one to consider as Kumanovac points out. Despite all the acclaim for Montella, Catania did finish last season poorly, winning just once in 11 games I believe loosing to the likes of Bologna and Leece at home. Whilst Montella went during the off season, most of the players remain and I’m not sure the quality is there. Upfront, they have a bit of skill but lack a goal scoring touch. Gomez has just 8 goals in 2 seasons at Catania, Bergessio has never been prolific since moving to Europe and Barrientos is more of a creator. The rest of the team is solid if uninspiring with perhaps the exception of Lodi, who I quite like as a player. In defence, they have Alvarez and Andular back from loans and have just sold Llama as well, so there are some defensive changes to consider as well. Watching the highlights and reading the match reports, it sounds like Genoa were really impressive in attack in their opening game. They created plenty of changes, scoring twice, but it should have been more and they missed a penalty as well. Immobile looked good, and a more than adequate replacement to the now departed Gilardino. Jankovic had a good game as well causing Cagliari plenty of problems. They’ve also boosted their attacking options with Borriello coming in, whilst he’s not been settled in the last couple of years, I fancy that his return to Genoa could produce a return to the kind of form that he made his name with five years ago. I feel that they can get goals against most teams with the attacking ability they have, and I would fancy them to score once or twice against Catania. If they can then it would make it very hard to Catania to get anything more than a draw out of this game. Whilst it must be said they Genoa did allow Cagliari plenty of opportunities to score themselves in that opening match, but Frey was in inspired form and a bit like with Cagliari I can’t see who is going to take the chances for Catania.

[sonic]

Re: Serie A > September 1/2 I think the Catania is a team to watch carefully because compared to last year has not changed much and therefore plays from memory. Good his first match against Roma who put in serious difficulties, tomorrow against Genoa (who won but with no little difficulty against a modest Cagliari), you may hit the booty full. In its favor, even Massimino stadium where the pink blue rarely make bad performance. Odd for home win in decisive descent. Catania to Win @ 2.00 Bwin Confidence medium and stake 2/10

[ultravires]

Re: Serie A > September 1/2 I waited a little bit too long and both prices have decreased a little bit. Juventus win - 1.75 - 6 points - Bet365 Napoli win - 1.75 - 4 points - Bet365

[Dylan]

Re: Serie A > September 1/2

Despite all the acclaim for Montella, Catania did finish last season poorly, winning just once in 11 games I believe loosing to the likes of Bologna and Leece at home. Whilst Montella went during the off season, most of the players remain and I’m not sure the quality is there. Upfront, they have a bit of skill but lack a goal scoring touch. Gomez has just 8 goals in 2 seasons at Catania, Bergessio has never been prolific since moving to Europe and Barrientos is more of a creator. The rest of the team is solid if uninspiring with perhaps the exception of Lodi, who I quite like as a player. In defence, they have Alvarez and Andular back from loans and have just sold Llama as well, so there are some defensive changes to consider as well. Watching the highlights and reading the match reports, it sounds like Genoa were really impressive in attack in their opening game. They created plenty of changes, scoring twice, but it should have been more and they missed a penalty as well. Immobile looked good, and a more than adequate replacement to the now departed Gilardino. Jankovic had a good game as well causing Cagliari plenty of problems. They’ve also boosted their attacking options with Borriello coming in, whilst he’s not been settled in the last couple of years, I fancy that his return to Genoa could produce a return to the kind of form that he made his name with five years ago. I feel that they can get goals against most teams with the attacking ability they have, and I would fancy them to score once or twice against Catania. If they can then it would make it very hard to Catania to get anything more than a draw out of this game. Whilst it must be said they Genoa did allow Cagliari plenty of opportunities to score themselves in that opening match, but Frey was in inspired form and a bit like with Cagliari I can’t see who is going to take the chances for Catania.

Well, another change in the odds in the Catania vs Genoa match, with the away team up to 4/1 at certain places. Genoa have been in my thoughts all week, and at these prices I think its worth a go to take them on the handicap. I can't see any immediate reason for the change in these odds. Genoa have a couple of injury doubts, but so do Catania. Genoa +0.75 1.79 at Bet Victor (2 /10 units)

[ultravires]

Re: Serie A > September 1/2 That is a good play I think Dylan. I watched Catania against Roma last week and they have not changed much at all. Still 4-3-3 with a disposition for counter-attacking. They got two lucky breaks with their goals but are generally quite dangerous going forward. The money looks to still be going on them so I will wait. Genoa +1 would certainly be too good to miss.

[Milwo]

Re: Serie A > September 1/2 Have nothing to add to the team details and such, know very little about Italian football, but strictly statistically speaking when looking at last season + this season's matches (doubled), Udinese - Juve 1X2 is 34%-30%-36%, and makes up the only value line in tonights Serie-A -- again: strictly statistically. Backing Udinese to win with half a ball breaks even on 1.56 and the Asian handicappers offer 2.21--2.23. That is a huge gap of value right there. M.