AGurv Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Some thoughts on other teams. Patriots/Green Bay - These two are really the same to me. They even have the same odds (+560). I think they are both great offensively, but really just mediocre defensively. Theyll def both be there, but its not worth the risk with these defenses and low odds. Texans +1100 - This team is so injury prone I have no idea why anyone would think they are going to win the Superbowl. Andre Johnson and Matt Schaubb miss time every year, and it looks like Foster is on the same path. If they actually stay healthy then they can do it, thats a big IF. They are in a ridiculously weak division also, so they are almost a lock to make the playoffs... Eagles +1300 - Same deal, Vick will get injured. He already is injured. There not winning the SB with a backup. Steelers +2000 - Well with Decastro out there O-line will basically be about the same as last year. They have no RB really. They have no secondary. I predict 8-8, maybe 9-7 for the Steelers this year. My Pick Ravens +1900 to bet 1 unit @ 5dimes It pains me to do this, but I see this as a pretty complete team. Flacco proved against the Patriots he can get it done last year. He made the big plays, his WR's just didnt. They've got a great defense as always. They have one of the better RB's in the league. I am actually kind of stunned that oddsmakers thinks this team is on the same level as the Steelers, because I think they are far better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trips Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 Re: My Pick to win the 2012 Superbowl Will leave it for a weeks for any bigger ante post bets but had a little bet on San Fran and Detroit. Think SF will improve,most potential for me is Detroit, IMO can see them getting stronger,will be a force over the next few seasons. to be honest no idea of players coming in and out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 Re: My Pick to win the 2012 Superbowl I haven't pulled the trigger yet but I like the Dallas Cowboys. Their interior line needs improvement but with Claiborne and Carr they have a much improved secondary and the continued emergence of Demarco Murray will give the Cowboys a multi-dimensional attack that I think will make them hard to stop. Have a feeling they will lose to the Giants though so am holding off to see which way the odds go. Also don't mind the looks of Seattle... people talk about Luck and Griffin but for me, Russell Wilson will turn out to be the best quarterback in this year's draft. Worth noting that the past two years, the Giants hit 150s to win the Superbowl and the Packers hit 55s. Seems to be a bit of value on taking teams who find themselves needing to win out to win the Superbowl. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AGurv Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 Re: My Pick to win the 2012 Superbowl So how much you guys think I should bet on the 49ers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Re: My Pick to win the 2012 Superbowl So how much you guys think I should bet on the 49ers How would you price up the game, to a 100% book? (in decimals, or I'm fooked ;) ) How does the book you will be using have it priced? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AGurv Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 Re: My Pick to win the 2012 Superbowl I'm lost in decimals myself so I'll make it simple +1900 = place a $100 bet and you win $1900 As of now the 49ers are -175 or -3.5 (-110) -175 = You need to place $175 to win $100 -110 = You need to place $110 to win $100 pretty simple Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Re: My Pick to win the 2012 Superbowl I'd say if you're going to hedge, do it properly and guarantee the same amount whoever wins. But I would just ride the 'destiny' card to NO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trips Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Re: My Pick to win the 2012 Superbowl Got 16/1 for SF last April. not confident against Baltimore but wont be greening out as they are worthy favourites. SF are very physical as well so hoping they wont be bullied and put off their game by the Ravens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mirage Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Re: My Pick to win the 2012 Superbowl If I was looking to bet on this game I would side with the Ravens at the current prices. I do believe that the 49ers will be a lot better than the Championship game and are worthy favourites but, Flacco has shown he can handle the pressure over these last couple of weeks. I can see it being a tight game with these 2 defence's that can dominate their opponents. Advice on whether you should hedge? I think it just comes down to how you feel because there isn't a right or wrong answer any of us can give you. Very tough game to call. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trips Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Re: My Pick to win the 2012 Superbowl If I was looking to bet on this game I would side with the Ravens at the current prices. I do believe that the 49ers will be a lot better than the Championship game and are worthy favourites but, Flacco has shown he can handle the pressure over these last couple of weeks. I can see it being a tight game with these 2 defence's that can dominate their opponents. Advice on whether you should hedge? I think it just comes down to how you feel because there isn't a right or wrong answer any of us can give you. Very tough game to call. I think one of the main considerations for hedging your bets is the price you are giving, If say you think Baltimore and SF is a pick then hedging your bet is value, someone is taking your bet of say 4/9 for SF when you believe the true price is evens, you may however feel SF are 1/4 favourites to beat Baltimore so offering someone 4/9 just to cash out is not a good idea, IMO I think there is an argument to hedge SF at 1/2- 4/9 , I think SF are more like 8/13 -4/7 shots against Baltimore. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AGurv Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 Re: My Pick to win the 2012 Superbowl I actually feel Baltimore is going to win this game. My logic for hedging is to lock in a profit. Would have an awful taste in my mouth if San Fran beat the Ravens and I made nothing out of it (however I did take the Ravens straight up in the last 2 games which has made me some good money) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trips Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Re: My Pick to win the 2012 Superbowl Sorry Agurv thought you had backed SF. Well the spread has dropped from 4 to 3.5 in just one day,ive noticed general prices offered for SF have gone out as well, so you would think Ravens price will be smaller in a few days.maybe better to leave it day or so and lay at a smaller price.i assume the big money will come for SF next week and maybe the Ravens price will drift a bit then. I don't think SF are certs but fancy them far more today after watching a few things in the highlights of the weekend games. the only concern i have is how they contain Flaco, cant see them blitzing that much and the Ravens will love it if they just rush 4. i suppose they will adjust if secondary cant cope. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allthethings Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Re: My Pick to win the 2012 Superbowl I would definitely hedge. With 100 to make 1900, you can definitely afford to lock in a profit of between 500 and 800 either way, right? I'd take that and laugh all the way through the Super Bowl. Who wants to sweat? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AGurv Posted February 2, 2013 Author Share Posted February 2, 2013 Re: My Pick to win the 2012 Superbowl Wont be back at a computer till after the superbowl 49ers -175 to win 3 units. GL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allthethings Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Re: My Pick to win the 2012 Superbowl Nice pick Agurv, and good hedge in my opinion. If they call holding in the end zone on 4th and 5... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AGurv Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 Re: My Pick to win the 2012 Superbowl I think the ravens would have ended up winning. Just a feeling, I wasn't overtly worried. There would have been around 1:30 on the clock and all they would have needed is a field goal to either tie it or go up 2. Depending on if the 49ers got the 2 point conversion. Anyway, great season Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackcrow Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Re: My Pick to win the 2012 Superbowl Great pick AG :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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