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Flat Racing Tuesday 21st of August


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*Between Us - Brighton 3:45* It is hard to ignore money for a Sir Mark Prescott horse, and he seldom leaves a favourite behind, and this horse has all the credentials of a typical Prescott winner. This horse hacked up by 5 lengths last time out at Yarmouth, and a 6 pound penalty ain't going to stop another win if it runs a similar race. It went off in front pillar to post last time out and looked a horse with more than 6 pounds in hand of the handicapper, more like a stone. This is Prescott's only runner tomorrow, and he has a mighty 32% win strike-rate at Brighton. Should win. *1 Point WIN @ 6/4 VC BOG*

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Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 21st of August Brighton - 3.15 - Sweet Liberta @ 8/1 Bet365 Only shown modest form so far this year but i felt her run last time was better than the bare result. She travelled nicely for most of the race before fading in the final furlong or 2. Dropped back in trip for a first attempt at 10f i feel she will fare much better. Goes back to turf from the AW and is dropped 3lb from the handicapper too. Yard in sparkling form and it wouldnt surprise me to see this one get off the mark

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Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 21st of August 3.15 Brighton - 2pts win Chatterati @ 13/2 (VC) A rare Mark Johnston selection from me but I'm hopeful that I'll be on the right side of one of his runners for a change! You have to put a line through this one's last race, really, though, in order to make her a viable betting option, but I believe you can. It's not uncommon for a Johnston horse to throw in a stinker before bouncing back and this filly was beaten a full 44l at Kempton last time out. She was hampered early on and swerved on a bend and simply never went with any real purpose. She was weak in the market beforehand too and her all-weather mark is on the high side. If you can forgive her that effort then she must have a big chance here for a trainer with a 28% strike rate at Brighton. Her run two starts back looks strong when staying on into 3rd at Redcar behind a horse who romped to victory off 6lbs next time out as well and the 4th was only beaten a neck subsequently too. She's been dropped a pound for that and now could be ready to strike. Johnston's horses go best on a sound surface normally and this filly is by Street Cry so it is of no great surprise that she'll show her best without juice in the ground. Her two efforts on soft recently were promising and now this trip on this ground should be bang on for her. This is not a strong race and Joe Fanning is a jockey I like so fingers crossed everything will come together for this one this afternoon.

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Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 21st of August 4:05 Yarmouth Mrs Greenley 3/1 Boylesports I genuinely can't believe the generous price on offer here for this horse. Firstly the horse has won 2/2 starts at Yarmouth with the very latest win over the course being in an arguably better race than this one despite it being in a class 5. Anton Chigh can be evidence of that, having come 6th in that race and looking a bit one paced it then subsequently won its next outing easily and has since finished 2nd in two class 4s looking like a decent horse. Even My Own Way Home who finished 10th in this race has since won a class 5 and did not digrace himself in a class 4 in its latest run. In Mrs Greenley's latest outing at Newmarket it was given a terrible ride at the back my Ted Durcan, in which in the last half furlong absolutely bolted to come from last to 4th. Today sees the depolyment of Carson who has already won on the horse at Yarmouth. With it's experience and love of the track and ground, the fact it's very low in the handicap for its ability and unexposed it seems to me to be a great bet. 10 pts win p.s Imedla Mayem is very overpriced as well (12/1 at bet365) and I have gone for a cheeky forecase of Greenley/Mayhem at 37/1

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Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 21st of August BABY DOTTIE (16:45) gets her ideal conditions for the first time on turf for quite a while and although she’s probably a little bit more effective on sand, she’s on a mark that I think she’ll be able to take advantage of on turf, especially over this ideal trip and at a track which her pedigree suggests she’ll handle. She’s only 1/19 on all surfaces which is a concern, but ran really well only two starts ago, when beaten less than a length at Lingfield. That was off this mark and although she didn’t back that form up last time out, that came on softer than ideal ground and over a 5f trip which is quite obviously too sharp for her. I really don’t understand why they keep running her over the minimum distance, alongside letting her go off relatively short prices, as she just doesn’t have the raw speed for 5f. On the basis of that Lingfield effort however, she’s on a fair mark and I just feel today she’s overpriced and is worthy of investment. The 73 day absence isn’t too much of a concern, especially as she has win and placed form off much longer breaks and Pat Phelan can easily get one ready after a break, so fitness shouldn’t be an issue. Brighton is a unique track and that could cause problems for a horse who hasn’t experienced it before, but Baby Dottie’s sire doesn’t have a bad record with his progeny here in recent seasons (4/24, three individual winners) and that provides hope that she’ll handle the course. I’ve always thought that Baby Dottie can run to a rating in the mid-60’s once racing over 6f more often and although that doesn’t give a huge deal of space, given she’s currently rated 57, the fact is that I feel she should be more like a 6/1 chance in this weak contest. Memphis Man being priced around the 5/1 mark shows how weak the race is and I won’t be surprised if Baby Dottie plays a big part in the finish. The market will tell the full story, especially coming after a break but if the rain stays away and she gets the breaks, then she’ll go close. Bets 16:45 Brighton – Baby Dottie; 1pt @ 10/1 Bet365 (bog)

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Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 21st of August 4.15 bright not much out today and this looks a little tricky but i dont like this fav watt broderick as at 7/4 he just looks far too short for what he has done to date and just looks zero value at that price .of the others i think there are a few horses that could take him on .waspy has been steadily improving and won comfortably lto although im tempted also by doc hill who was just behind waspy lto although the winner looked better than that win in fairness.rockme cockney also ran a good race lto and looks like his time must be near based on that as looks fairly hcapped .....overall the fav worth taking on ..... rockme cockny 2pts win 8/1 bet365 waspy 2pts win 9/2 betvic

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Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 21st of August 4.45 brigh stonescrabtomorrow is a decent sort and always runs a good race but high racing weight is off putting against better sorts .i have to admit i priced up ridgeway sapphire as my 4/1 tissue fav but expected to get around 13/2 + today but am disappointed to see he priced up at 4/1 and holding .probably the fastest horse in the race over 6f ..thats no surprise but only just about backable at that price ,of the others stonescrabtomorrow will be dangerous but a bigger danger could come from russian bullet who returns to turf on a very lowly mark and could be anything today especially after having run a 71 at wolv lto against avonvalley and is dropped 8lbs by the hcapper on this return to turf ridgeway sapphire 2pts win 4/1 bet365 russian bullet 1pt saver 15/2 bet365

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Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 21st of August 2.35 Yarmouth THEREABOUTS 2pts win @ 5/1 bog (Paddy Power and many more) 3yo colt bred by the Juddmonte Farms and trained by Marco Botti for Giuliano Manfredini. Unraced at 2, started his career less than 3 months ago and therefore is still very lightly raced having today just his 6th career start. Showed promises in his first three starts in Maiden and got an opening mark of 72 for his handicap career that started a bit more than three weeks ago at Newmarket with a decent display over 1m (good to firm) finishing 5th of 8 not too far from the winner (3L) after having been too keen in the first half of the race. Dropped in trip this Singspiel colt built on those early promises finishing very strong over today's C&D (good) 13 days ago, once again after losing a lot of ground in the early part of the race. Off a mark of 68, with blinkers on for the first time (his trainer has got a very good record with his horses running in first time blinkers), Martin Harley back on board (8 wins for the young jockey in the last fortnight, 2-13 (15%) here at Yarmouth this season and already 3 wins for Marco Botti in a bit more than a year), with stable on fire at the moment (4 wins and 5 places from the last 12 runners in the last couple of days with Jakkalberry victorious at Arlington and Joshua Tree at Deauville) and with a good record at this track (13-82 in the last 5 years, 3-15 this season) Thereabouts has to have a good chance in this race.

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Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 21st of August Shirley Teasdale is a pretty good jockey in my book and she could be in with a shout in the last race on the card at Yarmouth, its a tricky apprentice race and anything can happen, her ride is a 3yr old filly that has been around Yarmouth 3 times before but yet to figure, she's only had the 3 runs so has a very low mileage and the penny could soon drop when it comes to the racing game. Shirley gets the leg up for the first time on the racecourse, but am pretty sure its not the first time she has been behind the wheel. 5:05 Yarmouth - Green Mountain. 10/1 & 11/1 most firms. Each Way bet!

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Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 21st of August BRANSON 2.15 Brighton. 1 point win. A 3-horse race at Brighton, and with the undulation, etc, it makes it a wide open race. I like the experience edge in this race, as if the course takes its victims, like it usually does, then the two more unexposed rivals may cop it. The trip will suit much better today and the ground's fine, so I take us to win by experience. 4/1 Bet365 BOG

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Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 21st of August 3.35 Yarmouth - 3pts win Mafeteng @ 11/2 (VC) John Dunlop's top-weight should improve for this extra two furlongs in my book and therefore rates as the one they all have to beat here in my opinion. Many of these have to prove their stamina for this trip and although my selection fits into that category, she shapes as if it should be no issue and on pedigree she also has a fine chance of getting home. Her sire was a 1m4f winner and she's out of a mare who stayed this trip well. She's proven to be a bit tricky and she hasn't got his head in front yet but today will hopefully be the day. The trainer has had a tricky time of it this year but his horses are running better than the figures suggest. This one shaped as if she was just fairly slow (but running okay) over 1m4f on three starts since returning to the fold this season on the all-weather but she was never near the leaders at Pontefract last time over the same trip. She was ridden with plenty of restraint and she plodded on nicely enough up the hill to suggest she'd relish this trip today. It pays to be handy around the bend at Ponte and she just couldn't get involved from her position at the two pole. Shouldn't get so far back today in a smaller field and I think this trip will unlock some more ability and enable her to get off the mark.

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Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 21st of August 8.00 Warwick - 3pts win Mabel's Song @ 4/1 (Bet365) Henry Candy's handicap debutant has been solid in the market which is encouraging having shown promise in maidens and I think she has a very strong chance in a modest affair. She ran promisingly on debut when a staying on 9th of 14 in a 7f maiden at Salisbury before a long break. She returned to the same venue several months later over 1m2f and wasn't disgraced on her first run back having drifted a bit in the market. The winner of that race is now rated 98 and my selection was beaten 10 lengths. She runs today off 60 and wasn't knocked around too much when running to get a mark at Windsor last time. She lost her position a bit without questions being asked before suffering from a lack of a clear run. Couldn't get involved in a race which worked out very well and now she drops into much more suitable company I think she'll go very well indeed. She gets weight for age allowance here along with a few others but she's shown enough to suggest she can compete strongly in an event like this off this mark.

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