2012 The Rugby Championship

[Spankyf]

First match of the RC and NZ are well placed to get off to a good start. With only a hairs breadth separating the Wallabies from losses against the Welsh, they did well to win the mental battle and that’s why they won the series. The corollary is that Wales really should have had more belief: i feel if Gatland was there there would have been at least one Welsh victory, with all due respect to Howley. I don’t watch as much Super Rugby but from the games I did watch last season, the Aussie sides dont have a lot of good players in form, but the squad has good loose forwards and very good back three. I haven’t been as impressed with their front five and I think that it'll be down to Genia and Barnes to control the territory to have any hope of winning against the AB’s. I think Deans is under pressure also and its not ideal for the mindset to ‘have to win’, especially against the best side in the world by a country mile. The AB’s have a full side to choose from with the highlight being the 10-12-13 combo of Carter-Williams-Nonu. Weepu is under pressure at 9 but he won’t lose the match even if he plays poorly and Hansen has already shown a willingness to blood less experience players or fringe players who are hungrier or in form, as the Ireland tests showed. I was really impressed with the Chiefs players this season and the quality surrounding this whole squad puts them way ahead of everyone. Massive experience in the front row and of course in midfield; I don’t see them being matched or bettered by Aus anywhere on paper or in play. A light journey for the AB’s, their first game after another NZ Super Rugby title, and they way they woke up and dispatched Ireland 60-0 in the final test in June which shows you what they can do when the pedal is put down. The Australian side looks more like its set up to contain than compete (I don’t think any side can) and I see a bigger win than the handicap of 5 points available at most bookies. New Zealand -4.0 @ 5/6 Stan James

[Spankyf]

Re: 2012 The Rugby Championship

New Zealand -4.0 @ 5/6 Stan James

Bet won. Lucky enough with it, DC did the business at the very end to make it safe.

[Spankyf]

Re: 2012 The Rugby Championship Argentina South Africa I thought the Pumas competed very well and naivety cost them tries while nerves bungled their chances for scores themselves (three missed penalties at the start of the second half). More revealing are the stats – SA had 4 handling errors to Arg 7, Arg 10 SA 6 for turnovers, fairly low difference in tackles 72 SA Arg 88 - and the result of the second half: only 7-0 to the springboks. Argentina's defence for the last twenty minutes was absolutely superb and Fernandez and Albacete in particular were never on the backfoot. It seemed to me that it was a performance of denying a bonus point, and of showing the rest of the teams what Argentina are all about (check out that rolling maul!). I expect more passion next Saturday in Mendoza, hope for more clinical point taking from Arg (Hernandez is not a big a loss as might be imagined - that was his first start in 3 years) and a closer game. SA are relieved to still have Bekker and Habana in the line up. I think it will be a closer game than last week so i'm taking one bet (pts total too hard to call imo): SA 1-12 @ 13/8 Bet365 New Zealand Australia Has to be another AB win. AB's were better in the loose forward play, Aus were nervous and got simple stuff wrong (not back 10 metres, conceding scrum on 66' and Beale's performance, 5+ handling errors) and the game was just a sloppy one. Dagg absolutely shone and Carter was imperious as always. Mealamu and Woodcock were also great (though he misses this game through injury). I think the Wallabies may be better off with Cooper in the side than they were with Barnes, from an attacking perspective. Maybe Deans is thinking its best to throw the kitchen sink at them because nothing much else worked in the first game. It'll only pay off if their attitude is right: they have to be up for a game against a team with no equal, but they are in fact their closest rivals. I think it has to be more entertaining than the first test and games are the average h2h is about 44 pts in Eden Park. I think the AB's will build from last week and if low odds 'bankers' are your thing you can bet on the home win here. Over 45.5 @ 91/100 Bet365

[Spankyf]

Re: 2012 The Rugby Championship SA 1-12 Loss Well done Pumas, superb first half, they should have won it. Steve Walsh was poor AB Aus over 45.5 Loss Completely wrong here, 22-0 to New Zealand

[SteveO]

Re: 2012 The Rugby Championship New Zealand v Argentina With Dan Carter out I can see Argentina winning on the handicap with +27pts at 10/11 with Blue Square. Full preview here http://www.punterslounge.com/2012-the-rugby-championship-new-zealand-v-argentina-betting-henry-s-input-to-help-pumas-stay-within-the-handicap

[Spankyf]

Re: 2012 The Rugby Championship 27 pts is a huge handicap but even having watched every minute of Argentinas great performances so far, I wouldn't bet against the AB's to climb a few more gears today. They've said they've wanted to do that in both games so far and while I think Pumas will be strong in the breakdown work again, Read and McCaw will match them. I'd oppose your bet but i've been a little off the mark lately so i'll watch and wish you luck. Just think with the extra week the AB's will be more aligned and have the stage set for a big performance. Can't wait for the other game though, complete toss up so should be a good one.

[SteveO]

Re: 2012 The Rugby Championship New Zealand v South Africa The bookmakers make South Africa 15 pt underdogs for this game and I wouldn't want to back against the Boks with that kind of start. Their pack has played with an ominous ferocity,have a pretty tight defence and of course they haven't got to cope with the genius of Dan Carter. I can see this being a very tight match especially if the weather conditions take a turn for the worse and think that South Africa have more than enough to stay within the 15pt handicap. Full preview here http://www.punterslounge.com/2012-rugby-championship-new-zealand-v-south-africa-betting-south-africa-plenty-good-enough-to-beat-the-handicap-in-dunedin

[SteveO]

Re: 2012 The Rugby Championship Australia v Argentina Betting Australia look out of sorts to me and this is a great time for the Pumas to play against them. If the Pumas play at the same intensity as they did last week they the Aussie will find it extremely difficult to break them down and although I expect them to get the victory I forsee a pretty tight and low scoring game. Full preview here http://www.punterslounge.com/2012-rugby-champioship-australia-v-argentina-betting-out-of-sorts-australia-to-struggle-against-the-pumas

[bubblepower]

Re: 2012 The Rugby Championship new zealand v south africa Just seen they playing this under a roof which in IMHO big advantage NZ and is not represented in these lines takin NZ -13 stan james 1.91

[Pie-chucker]

Re: 2012 The Rugby Championship Aus v Argies This 27,000 seater down on the Gold Coast is new territory for the Aussies, as are the oppo. Only the skipper, Sharpe has played against them. Can watch all the tapes they like but current Argie intensity could knock the hosts back a bit. Loss of Will Genia to injury a huge blow. On top of Horwill, Pocock etc. Argies pick from full-strength. But, will recent travel (SA to Arg to NZ to Qld) get to them? Can they steer clear of Wayne 'No-Nonsense' Barnes' yellow card pocket? If NO then YES to these two Qs then I can see an away win. Argies are 7-2 to win, but a better way in is to go Arg/Arg ht/ft as to win at 80 mins they'll probably need to be ahead on the board after 40 mins. I'll cover this with a 'stake back' fall-back on the ht handicap. Thus: 10pts Argie/Argie @ 6-1 11 pts Argie ht handicap +6 @ 11-10

[Spankyf]

Re: 2012 The Rugby Championship

10pts Argie/Argie @ 6-1 11 pts Argie ht handicap +6 @ 11-10

Nice bets, so close to a win

[SteveO]

Re: 2012 The Rugby Championship Argentina v New Zealand Betting On the last two occasions that the All Blacks travelled to Argentina they came away both times with narrow victories of 19 -25 and 20 -24. So going by those stats and the fact that Argentina have covered the handicap everytime this tournamnent, an Argentina +14 bet looks very tempting. With the Championship already sewn up really, New Zealand could well take their foot off the gas or play with unabandoned flair and trounce thier rivals which I think they may well do but I'm staying clear. The bet that I do like the look of is Israel Dagg to score anytime at a tasty 21/10 with PaddyPower. He has looked dangerous in evrey match and will surely get ample opportunities this match with Carter back in the fold Recommended Bet: Israel Dagg to score anytime at 21/10 with PaddyPower Full preview here http://www.punterslounge.com/the-rugby-championship-argentina-v-new-zealand-betting-talismanic-dan-carter-to-get-the-all-blacks-ticking-against-argentina

[SteveO]

Re: 2012 The Rugby Championship South Africa v Australia Betting I think that South Africa could be on the verge of something great soon and have a great chance here of putting an out of sorts Australia to the sword. I think Australia are really missing the likes of Genia and especially David Pocock and could realy suffer at the altitude in this match. Recommended Bet: South Africa - 7 to beat Australia at 10/11 with Stan James Full preview here http://www.punterslounge.com/the-rugby-champonship-south-africa-v-australia-betting-south-africa-to-put-an-end-to-run-of-defeats-against-australia

[Spankyf]

Re: 2012 The Rugby Championship South Africa v Australia I don't think we'll see a classic but I think the Bok's will be stronger and more ferocious at home coming off the back of two defeats in NZ and Australia. They haven't beaten them in five games now and I think Meyer's team are far more motivated. Other factors strengthening their case include enigma Cooper's bizarre comments putting out-of-form Beale in the hot seat at fly half, and this is the Aussies first 'far' away game since before the World Cup. In short, I can't see SA slipping up. I agree with Steve that they should cover the handicap but i'm looking at a different market. Australia put 31 and 41 pts on SA in 2010, but otherwise haven't managed it in the TriN since 2008. SA don't give away much at home and I don't think they'll do that tomorrow either. Australia team total points U 20.5 @ 87/100 Bet365

[Pie-chucker]

Re: 2012 The Rugby Championship Yeah, I'm with Aus struggling with continued key injuries and now up on the veldt. Safest way in is probably go with 2nd half handicap. Looks a steal. 22pts SA -4 2nd Half handicap @11/10

[Pie-chucker]

Re: 2012 The Rugby Championship 10/11, obviously. Pile on!

[Spankyf]

Re: 2012 The Rugby Championship Aus U 20.5 pts - Win Haven't watched it yet but looking forward to... Habana bagged a hatrick. Nice punting gentlemen.

[SteveO]

Did you see the NZ game spanky. NZ back to their very best with 4 backs scoring except Dagg lol.

[Spankyf]

Re: 2012 The Rugby Championship I managed to catch it alright. Brilliant performance from AB's, McCaw, Carter, Smith, Franks, Read and Nonu especially were excellent. Their aim of getting the forwards to release in contact finally came off and they really did play some great stuff. Argentina started falling off the tackles badly in 2nd half, they never had a snowball's. Unlucky on the Dagg bet, he played a blinder and Jane could've easily put him in for one when he was under pressure to touch down for his try.

[Spankyf]

Re: 2012 The Rugby Championship Argentina v Australia I watched both games last week and despite the scorelines, Argentina still looked better than Australia. This is their last match in the current campaign and its been a delight to see them compete in their maiden season. Squad news is the same with their venerable pack hoping to give Rodrigo Roncero the send off he deserves for a great career. Given the trouble they've caused everyone else up front, I see them bossing things in the pack with the Rosario crowd cheering them on. The Wallabies look mentally beaten now, and they've got at least 5 players who wouldn't be considered match fit in other circumstances who have still traveled as they simply don't have the numbers. Barnes and Ashely Cooper are the latest casualties and they've got a better 15 on the sidelines. Whats really telling for me is their mindset though. Centre McCabe admits Argentina are the favourites and really you don't normally get that kind of timidity from any Australian sporting teams. Its the last game and a far trek for them. Very interesting stat on ESPN stating that 110 of the 147 caps from the Wallabies pack come from standout performer Sharpe. Line speed was terrible last week, of the two sides I think Argentina's physicality and breakdown work gives them a clear advantage here. Argentina are sure to want to avenge their near miss from the last meeting some weeks back and I am happy to take the Argentina straight win as they've deserved it so far. Argentina -1 @ 10/11 Bet365

[SteveO]

Re: 2012 The Rugby Championship South Africa v New Zealand think this match really could go either way, New Zealand were simply devastating last weekend and when they play at that kind of intensity no team in World rugby can live with them. However South Africa proved that they were a match for the Kiwis in the 21 - 11 loss in round 4 which very much flattered the All Blacks. Home advantage though is a massive plus for the Boks plus the fact that this will be the Kiwis second away match on the bounce and is bound to have taken it's toll on them racking up so many airmiles in such a short period. South Africa have a 40 + % win rate against the All Blacks, so with home advantage and huge momentum from it's previous game I think the 2/1 on offer has to be taken although for those who would like to play a little safer + 6 is available at 10/11 with Stan James. Recommended Bet: South Africa to beat New Zealand at 2/1 with Boylesports Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/the-rugby-championship-south-africa-v-new-zealand-betting-south-africa-have-the-momentum-to-beat-the-mighty-all-blacks

[SteveO]

Re: 2012 The Rugby Championship Argentina v Australia I don't think anyone would be really surprised to see Argentina record a victory here but I think Australia still have enough class to win through. They have named a huge pack and also named 5 forwards on the bench and just two backs. This suggests to me you will see a far different game from Australia who will play a far less open game and instead try and a grind out a result. Despite the loss of Barnes Mike Harris is an excellent goal kicker and I believe that Australia will create enough opportunities for him to kck them to victory. Recommended Bet: Australia to beat Argentina at Evens with Bet365 Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/the-rugby-championship-argentina-v-australia-betting-injury-ravaged-australia-still-have-enough-class-to-beat-the-pumas