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Flat Racing Thursday 16th of August


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*Beaufort Twelve - Newmarket 5:25* Ran poor last time out, but if able to reproduce it's run from two starts back, it would have a big chance here. It was 2nd to Stature who has come out and won since. The 3rd in that race, Jungle Beat, came really close since also. It runs it's best on good to firm ground, which it should have tomorrow. It has a record of 1-2 from two runs on this ground. Harry Bentley has won on the horse before and takes off a few pounds. Jarvis's last runner was a winner, so stable coming into form. This is his only runner of the day. His record on this course is 13 winners from 134 runners, profit of +£9.27 to level stakes, and when Bentley rides for him, it is a profit of +£31.50 to level stakes. *1 Point WIN @ 8/1 Ladbrokes BOG*

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Re: Flat Racing Thursday 16th of August 3.25 Salisbury - 2pts win Shesha Bear @ 13/2 (PP) Posted this before her run here in June:

5.05 Salisbury - 1pt win Shesha Bear @ 10/1 (SJ) I think Jonathan Portman's runner is a bit overpriced here having racked up a hat-trick at Epsom last year and has had excuses on her two efforts so far this campaign. She struggled on very soft ground back at Epsom on his seasonal return, but many horses were well beaten on that surface first time out, yet ran much better since. She was stepped up to 2 miles at Goodwood last time and travelled well for much of the contest before fading inside the final 2f. She simply shaped as a non-stayer and the return to her optimum 1m4f here will help her see the race out. She handles soft ground well and her mark is slipping back down now (5lbs lower than 2 starts ago). That's generous considering she hasn't had her ideal circumstances this season yet, and although this being at Epsom would have increased her chances, she has won elsewhere, and I'm hoping the track won't undo her here. Korngold is too short having only run average races since his last win and remains 6lbs higher than that success, I'm not totally sure Persian Herald will get home well enough on the ground, Achalas hasn't shown enough this season to me to be a solid option. King's Troop is the one I reckon could run well if improving on its first run of the season but although he has a swing with my selection on Epsom form from September, Shesha Bear was comfortably in command that day.
She ran a cracker to go down by a length in second on this occasion and she competes here again off the same mark having not had things go for her since. She could never get involved at Epsom next time out but this was on a day where you had to be handy to get in the picture and the front three simply dominated affairs. I can't forgive her that effort and she ran much better at the same venue last time out. She was given far too much to do by an inexperienced rider, however, and she ought to have gone closer. With James Doyle taking the ride today I think that's a very positive jockey change and the track/trip and soft ground suit. It's going to be difficult giving weight to 3yos at this time of the year but enough of them have some questions to answer whereas I'm pretty sure Jonathan Portman's mare will run her race and I'm hoping it will be enough for a yard going nicely.
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Re: Flat Racing Thursday 16th of August 2.30 Beverley - 2pts win Sinnamara @ 6/1 (Bet365) This filly has plenty of strings attached to her and is not a bet for the faint-hearted but if she consents to race then I think she'll have a big chance of being there at the business end of this weak selling handicap over 1m4f. A lightly-raced type with only six runs under her belt to date, there is room for improvement, and she hasn't really had the chance to show her best yet in my eyes. She made a promising debut over in Ireland over a mile when finishing 6th of 18 but was subsequently off the track for six months prior to finishing 3rd with another decent effort over 1m4f. She managed to run again quite soon after to finish 4th of 8 behind a smart John Oxx horse now rated 91 and clearly she's not up to that sort of performance. Not much has gone right since joining her current yard as she unseated at the 2nd flight on her hurdling debut after a break before running okay without looking anything good at Doncaster over 1m7f next time out off a mark of 65. However, the trip might have stretched her and she probably still needed the run having not got very far on her return over the jumps. She refused to race last time out which is naturally a big concern as horses often get into a habit of this but I have to chance her at 6/1 given the weakness of the race and these conditions should suit. Her dam went well on better ground so it's plausible that this will help too and I've just got everything crossed that she'll bounce out okay.

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Re: Flat Racing Thursday 16th of August 3.15 newm chosen charcter (83) and golden tempest (83) come here almost neck and neck on the clock and although conditions will probably suit the latter slightly better ..chosen character does handle them so cant split the pair today ......... chosen character 5pts win 5/1 bet365 golden tempest 5pts win 6/1 bet365

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Re: Flat Racing Thursday 16th of August 15.15 Newmarket: Common Touch @ 9/1 William Hill Very progressive in his 3yo campaign last year, having been successful in two good handicaps plus two placed efforts in five starts. He couldn't build on that this year so far but I think it's easy to make excuses for him as he had to race of high handicap marks in some hot races. He's now down in class and also 3lb below his last winning mark, cheeckpieces are applied for the first time and may help him to regain some of his old form. This race looks not too competitive with only favourite Zacynthus making some appeal to me. The sound surface should be in favour of Common Touch as well and with Hannagan booked for the ride again I feel he is overpriced. 18.25 Leopardstown: Sean Og Coulston @ 6/1 Bet365 Should be in fine form after an excellent performance at Galway two weeks ago when he finished 3rd in a strong handicap. He's only 1lb up for that and looks well handicapped judged on last years performances when he won a Handicap at Tipperary off 83 and finished subsequently only a half a lenghts beaten third at the Galway Festival off 89. He's surly best seen over 7 furlongs and has the ability to handle cut in the ground what looks essential today at Leopardstown as there as loads of rain yesterday here and despite a dray day today so far further rain is expected later the day and ground is good to soft at the moment anyway.

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Re: Flat Racing Thursday 16th of August Tricky looking race this one but J.Gosden & R.Varian might just have it between them. Urban Daydream does run off a nice weight but is unproven at today's trip but her breeding suggests she should handle the trip, question is....does she handle it today. 4/1 looks a price to find out. Salisbury 3:25 - Urban Daydream.

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Re: Flat Racing Thursday 16th of August DIXIE’S DREAM (15:15) has been screaming for a drop to 7f after some solid efforts at a mile, not looking to fully get home the past twice. He’s drifted out to a good price this morning already and is well worth investing in, even though there’s a potential lack of pace in the race which could scupper his chances. He was a winner over 7f in May off only a 5lb lower mark, looking to have plenty of potential to go on from that as he had to come wide to make his challenge, an effort that should be marked up from the bare form. He has done to some extent, running a bold race last time out. That was over a mile at this track and Dixie’s Dream travelled better than the rest for a long way, but lacked much of a change of gear in the closing stages and he faded out of it. It’s obvious that he does “stay” a mile, but I do get the impression that for such a strong travelling type, this 7f will be of more use in improving on his current rating. He’s certainly handicapped to continue to improve, as a mark of 82 isn’t insurmountable given the promise he’s shown this year. Dixie’s Dream handles most ground, looks in form and has the assistance of Ryan Moore, all of which are obvious positives. This isn’t a particularly strong contest with plenty having fallen in the weights and having a bit to prove, whilst Dixie’s Dream still has the scope to be rated around 90 at some stage this season and the fact that he’s still definitely in form makes him an attractive enough betting prospect today. There’s only one pace angle in Zacynthus and it could well be a dawdle pace-wise. Dixie’s Dream does often settle well but I can imagine he could well be a bit keen if they don’t go quick enough from the way he goes about his races, which is a slight concern. I had him at around the 4/1 mark, so the current price is well worth a wager, even accounting for the possible lack of pace in the race. Bets 15:15 Newmarket – Dixie’s Dream; 1pt @ 13/2 Boylesports (bog)

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Re: Flat Racing Thursday 16th of August 7.55 Leopardstown KING OF DUDES 4pts win @ 5/2 bog (Paddy Power and many more) Very well bred 3yo colt purchased for 120,000gns in November 2009 at Tattersalls and first trained by Sir Henry Cecil. Won in nice style on soft ground three starts back and didn't run bad in defeat on his last two starts especially last time out when finding just one too good: a very well handicapped and improving horse in Sadler's Rock. Thomas Carmody-trained horses have been running very well of late: 2 winners and a close third from just 4 runners during the last week. Young apprentice jockey Luke Dempsey rode him last time out and claims a very valuable 7lb. The colt gets here a very important 8lb allowance being a 3yo and is one of the few runners that will appreciate the softish ground (both best efforts so far came on soft).

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Re: Flat Racing Thursday 16th of August 2.40 Newmarket - 2pts win Ellemujie @ 10/1 (Bet365) Posted this last time out:

2.45 Newmarket - 3pts win Ellemujie @ 8/1 (Bet365) Dean Ivory's charge goes well on the whole on the July Course and he certainly doesn't appear out of this off a mark of 83. Although he has won over 1m4f at Kempton, I think a stiff 1m2f on turf suits him best and the quick ground is definitely in his favour as all three of his turf wins have come on ground described as good to firm. He does have to bounce back from a disappointing effort last time out, but there were excuses as he got shuffled back around 3f out after he was involved in some scrimmaging and given not much came from off the pace in the contest, his race was over. He did, however, make up some decent ground into midfield afterwards before feeling the pinch inside the final furlong - unsurprising having used up energy over 1m4f to try get back into the race. He definitely ran better than the bare form suggests and the cheekpieces return today having been off on this occasion. They seem to help him and he returns to ideal conditions today and there looks plenty of pace in the race which will also suit perfectly. Big chance I think.
He ran a cracker on this occasion as he battled on determinedly under pressure to hold every chance for much of the final furlong before just having to give best to a couple of rivals. He wasn't beaten far, though, and should be able to go close again with conditions in his favour once more this afternoon. They didn't really go quick enough to make it as much of a test as I'd hoped and it may be a similar scenario today but at 10/1 he's worth a go with a few non-runners reducing the field. I think the favourite wants a stiffer test so I won't be backing at the price and the second favourite has to prove he's as good on the turf as the all-weather. All in all I think it's worth chancing one at a biggish price and Dean Ivory's runner looks likely to run his race and hopefully that will be enough with Tom Queally taking over in the saddle.
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Re: Flat Racing Thursday 16th of August 16:45 Beverly Nearly A Gift - Been in drastically poor form this year but is a very good price for the following reasons. Firstly the horse is unexposed, secondly it's racing at its optimum conditions (Gd/frm and 5f) and most importantly it is ridiculously well handicapped. Last year after some impressive maiden form it started its handicapping career at a mark of 82. Today it races off 60 which is 22lbs difference compared to this time last year. At that time it raced very well in a class 2 race finishing second and it looked like it was going to be a good horse. Sadly it hasn't been able to live up to that, but today it races in a relatively weak class 5 race of a ridiculously low mark. It looked like it needed its last race and actually ran quite well and I think it has good EW potential Nearly a gift 1pt e/w at 17/1

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Re: Flat Racing Thursday 16th of August

7.25 leop DUNTLE ran an absolute blinder lto against arsaadi and both recorded near 110 that day which is group 1 level and this is group 3 so a repeat of that effort could see him annilate this field today duntle 10pts win 4/1 betvic
Went with you on this one richard, new bike required so lets hope it brings some luck.
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Re: Flat Racing Thursday 16th of August 3.55 salis trade commisioner is well fancied today at 7/4 and is a good horse when the ground is fast but i think the soft ground is ideal for SOVERIEGN DEBT who is one of those rare horses that can run quick times on soft ground and just a repeat of his last run would see him win this soverign debt 5pts win 9/2 betvic

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Re: Flat Racing Thursday 16th of August

15.15 Newmarket: Common Touch @ 9/1 William Hill Very progressive in his 3yo campaign last year, having been successful in two good handicaps plus two placed efforts in five starts. He couldn't build on that this year so far but I think it's easy to make excuses for him as he had to race of high handicap marks in some hot races. He's now down in class and also 3lb below his last winning mark, cheeckpieces are applied for the first time and may help him to regain some of his old form. This race looks not too competitive with only favourite Zacynthus making some appeal to me. The sound surface should be in favour of Common Touch as well and with Hannagan booked for the ride again I feel he is overpriced.
Well done with this one, you got a good price. Do think that Common Touch diving to his right out of the stalls cost my bet (Dixie's Dream) the race as he had to make up a lot of ground when the race favoured those prominent. Oh well.
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Re: Flat Racing Thursday 16th of August

Well done with this one, you got a good price. Do think that Common Touch diving to his right out of the stalls cost my bet (Dixie's Dream) the race as he had to make up a lot of ground when the race favoured those prominent. Oh well.
True, it was a severe bump and had surly an impact on Dixie's Dream's performance. Thought Triple Charm was a bit unlucky as well. Kind of a messy race, I'm happy about the outcome though for obvious reasons. Had to wait a long time for a winner like this as the second half of this year is a disaster so far actually.
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Re: Flat Racing Thursday 16th of August

Bamurru 5.20 Chepstow. 1 point win. Did well enough on debut, but then disappointed bigtime. Has since been gelded, which can work wonders, and also gets the addition of blinkers for this race. I feel he'll show improvement from his debut run this evening and therefore have every chance of a win. Unexposed race and so there's always the chance of something improving beyond expectations, but at the prices we would be well worth a bet in my opinion. 14/1 Stan James.

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