Flat Racing Tuesday 14th of August

[Aidymac]

*Masamah - Nottingham 7:50* If it can run the same way it ran last time out, it should win this race going away. Was 3rd in a Group 2 last time out, only 2 lengths behind Ortensia, and is now running in Class 3 company tomorrow, big drop in class. Was also in a field of 17 last time out, and Spencer should be able to get his tactics right here in a small field of 5 runners. Has won 5 times on good to firm ground, loves this ground. Spencer has also won on this horse twice. Kevin Ryan is in good form and Spencer has an incredible record when riding for Ryan. 54 winners in 265 rides producing a profit of +£57.07 to level stakes. *1 Point WIN @ 15/8 Paddy Power BOG*

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 14th of August 3.20 Ayr - 2pts win Blues Jazz @ 11/1 (Hills) This horse is an admirably consistent type and although he's appeared to be handicapped out of matters recently (since completing a five-timer last suimmer) but hasn't been far away lately upped to a mile and he might just be able to score off this mark now with conditions in his favour. His form at Ayr is solid with two wins, a 2nd and two sixths (neither beaten too far), and he interestingly has PJ McDonald on board who rides this track especially well. It's the first time for a while a 'proper' jockey is on board and he has an 18% strike rate for Ian Semple. Better ground seems to suit and he's been racing on soft the last twice and whilst running well, this might bring out a bit more. He got his ground when staying on to chase Able Master three starts back over 7f but that winner has since gone in off a 7lb higher mark so he just bumped into one really and shaped as if a mile would be better. Nothing came from off the pace next time out and he pulled last time out when beaten 1 1/2l at Carlisle. He shapes as if in form and I think today's race should suit him ideally. Crucially the Semple yard are finally starting to hit form after a very cold spell and that could bring out the necessary improvement for his runner here.

[Lars]

Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 14th of August WANNABE KING (15:20) has the Visor back on and that could make all the difference, looking in dire need of headgear last time out. He also probably needed the run then too, especially as it was his first run for 91 days and he blew up pretty spectacularly in the home straight. Although some will say that he’s regressed badly and unlikely to pick up a race in this current form, Geoff Harker is a dab hand at getting that back to their best and I’m convinced that his last run was a tune-up for something else. Whether it’s today is the big question, but he’s a big enough price to chance with plenty to suit. He enjoys the quick ground, gets his trip of a mile and has the visor reapplied. Although not having much form in it, his reappearance effort wearing one in a Conditions event at the start of the season was hardly bad form and then his run in the Thirsk Hunt Cup, which should be overlooked altogether considering he was held-up (likes to sit prominently) and he got no run anyway. Jordan Nason takes off 7lbs and although not the strongest in the saddle at the moment, he has rode 3 winners in 2012 and is probably value for some of that claim. I’m prepared to follow this one for a while until it wins, but off a mark of 83 he really should be winning soon, and with the 7lb claim he looks more well-handicapped. Minimum stake stuff but hopefully the market will speak in his favour and he’ll go well. From the same yard, BORN TO BE ACHAMP (15:50) has fallen even further in the weights since coming from Brazil, now on a mark of 49 having entered the UK rated 85. It’s fair to say he hasn’t lived up to the potential but he hasn’t been seen to best effect on plenty of starts and hardly can fall much further in the weights, and with a positive jockey booking in Joe Fanning, the possibility of the return to front-running tactics is there and if so, then he has a fair chance of finally cashing in on this tumbling mark. A winner over a mile in Brazil, he found life tough when front-running off his original mark in handicaps last year. His mark fell 20lbs in just over a month and although he showed a bit more when blinkered and dropped to selling company on his last start in 2011 (was too free in front but ran a bit better than he had been doing), he was still woefully out of form. This being said, front-running tactics were what worked in Brazil, so it’s a surprise that on his last two starts he’s been dropped in at the back. He was hardly given a tough time on both occasions (was coming off an absence latest start) and there still looks to be a plan for this horse in my eyes. He isn’t obviously as good as he once was, and this trip is as far he wants but off a mark of 49, and for a horse who must have cost quite a bit of money to bring over here, it’s interesting they’re persisting. Joe Fanning is a jockey known for his exploits on horses when setting prominently, has a fair record with Geoff Harker (2/9 in past five seasons, in comparison with Franny Norton’s 0/15 who has ridden the selection on the past three occasions) and can only be regarded as a positive booking. It’s a very chancy bet but his run last time out should have put him spot on, has fallen so far in the weights it makes you wonder why they’re persisting with him and with Joe Fanning taking the ride, he’s worthy of some small interest at this big price. Also advising the double too as they both have similar profiles and come from the same yard. Bets 15:20 Ayr – Wannabe King; 1pt @ 16/1 Bet365 (bog) 15:50 Ayr – Born To Be Achamp; 1pt @ 16/1 Bet365 (bog) Wannabe King + Born To Be Achamp – 0.5pt Double @ 288/1 Bet365 (bog)

[richard-westwood]

Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 14th of August had a nice break at blackpool for a few days ........feeling all recharged and refocussed so can get back to some winner finding ......... 7.05 yarm speculative bet this one .......excellent aim looks to have very good chances today (74) and laso miss polly plum looks to hold decent chances also (71) as both have been showing fair speed in their races of late but im going to take a chance on a big priced horse here FANTASY FIGHTER (81?) .fantasy fighter is an a.w specialist and very quick on the a.w tracks .......interesting that they bring him to yarmouth tonight and the track or going may not suit at all so hence the speculative bet but the forecast fast ground will help a lot as many horses can translate lingfield form on quick going and if so then anywhere near his recent 81 would probably take this quite easily and at 12.5 on betfair he looks massive value even as a risky bet fantasy fighter 5pts win 12.5 betfair 5pts place 2.96

[Edberg]

Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 14th of August 2.00 Bath KYLLACHY STORM 4pts win @ 9/4 bog (Boylesports and many more) Kyllachy Storm is a former C&D winner who's run well here many times collecting 5 of his 7 wins over this track, 4 over today's C&D. The 8yo gelding ran well again here at Bath but over 5f last time out (7 days ago) and finished 2nd of 8 with a strong finish. That trip was too short for him and back over 6f should have a big shout in this race with a valuable 7lb claimer who won twice this year and once last week partnering with another horse trained by Ron Hodges.

[BKI Punter]

Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 14th of August 3:20 Ayr Wannabe King 1pt win - 16/1 (Bet365) Wannabe King isn't one to give up on just yet, not at a price like this anyway. He gets his favoured conditions here of a mile on a good surface and importantly has 7lbs taken off his back as he is being ridden by Jordan Nason. He was easily holding his own last year off marks in the high 90s and even defied a mark of 95 last April. He made a satisfactory return to action behind Jet Away over an inconvenient trip and has since ran in two handicaps, finishing way down the field. At 16/1, given he has his optimum conditions, he's massive value. 5:50 Nott Lexington Bay 2pt win - 15/2 (Betvictor) Lexington Bay was firmly on the upgrade as a 3yo but has had a nightmare as a four year old encountering all sorts of problems and hard luck. Arguably he should have two more wins to his name. He's severely underestimated in the betting at 15/2 and a mark of 86 could well prove to be lenient. He's a guaranteed stayer and has been given a break since finishing way back in the Northumberland Plate on heavy ground. Back on a sound surface he'll be able to give a true account of himself. 7:50 Nott Dinkum Diamond 2pt win - 7/2 (Boyle) I backed him at 4/1 with Boyles, but it just went. I still think he offers value at 7/2 though. Aside from the King's Stand, he never runs a bad race over 5f and today he gets good to firm ground which is a huge advantage, he hasn't had it all year. He gets weight from the fav and it's hard to see him not laying down a big challenge. 8:20 Nott Pettochside 1pt win - 20/1 (Bet365) He has come tumbling down the handicap since initially being rated 72. Maybe he didn't warrant that mark but I think he has had excuses for his latest runs and is worth backing at a big price. Interestingly they applied a tongue tie lto when he seemingly didn't get home on soft ground the time before. He got no run lto however, and he was running on. It's applied again today and again he gets 5f on a sound surface. A mark of 61 may well be lenient and a lot of the runners here are not on an upwards curve.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 14th of August 2.10 Wolverhampton - 2pts win Alpine Mysteries @ 7/1 (Skybet) I wanted to monitor the market on this filly before committing to a bet but she's been pretty solid for the John Dunlop yard who aren't have the best of seasons. However, he has had a recent winner and his horses aren't running terribly. The fact she isn't a drifter encourages me and she is the trainer's only runner on the day and doesn't send many to Wolverhampton (11 in last 5 years). She does have a wide draw to contend with here but she's been held-up on all starts to date although I'm sure she could be ridden a bit more handily given the way she's been staying on without threatening. She's made some modest late progress on all of her three starts in maidens without being beaten up and the extended mile here will suit more than the 7f she has been competing over. Although there is speed from her sire, her dam had plenty of stamina (by Montjeu) so this trip should help rather than anything else and she should be getting a stronger ride now handicapped. The maiden last time out has worked out pretty well and she was only 1/2l behind Heliconia two starts back. There's a 2lb swing today and a 1.5pt difference in the market so my filly looks to be the better bet in here and I think she's a big threat to all.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 14th of August The draw could play a big part in this weak looking race today, Imperial legend won on Sat but i'll take Miss Perratt on getting some revenge today in the last race of the day at Ayr. Distant Sun was 4th in the same race Imperial Legend won on Sat but came out Gate 16, Amy Ryan takes over the ride today and from a much better draw could give the jolly alot more to think about this time round. Ayr 5:25 - Distant Sun. Win Bet.

[Lodge]

Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 14th of August 17.30 - Bath - Duneen Dream @ 12/1 Bet365 Really poor race this but i feel Duneen Dream may go okay at a price. The 7yo won twice at the start of 2011 including once at this course but has been poor on the whole since, mainly campaigned on the AW over a shorter trip than this. Goes back to turf today on a lowly mark of 45 (was rated 58 on last turf appearance) and upped from 9f to 12f, hard surface should suit as only turf win came on firm ground. Good jockey booking in Daryll Holland, he's in good form at the minute and i'm hoping that he can steer this one home from a decent draw. Wouldn't be surprised if he drifted abit despite the fact its hard to be confident of many of these running their race.

[Jono333]

Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 14th of August Hi guys, haven't posted on here for a while, but been in a rich vein of form lately (won 16/21 horses in the last week) so thought I'd share my selection in the hope we can all beat the bookies. 7:35 Yarmouth - Play Street Since the step up in trip has been winning wonderfully. Absolutely hacked up in a strong Class 4 race two starts ago and LTO bolted home without getting out of 1st gear. Today sees it''s hardest test yet in what looks to be a competitive race. The Cecil horse will relish the step up in trip and there are few other horses that have shown decent form thus far. However, if Play Street travels like it has done lately I believe it can defy its 7lb penalty and Bentley's 3lb claim helps. Play street 10pt win

[Falbrav]

Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 14th of August CYRIL THE SQUIRELL 3.00 Bath. 1 point win. Third run back after a break, which is a way into a race that I like, and does have the ability to go close if near peak. The trip and ground isn't a concern and Darryll Holland getting the ride is a very big plus. Karen George due a winner, so why not today. 13/2 Bet365 BOG

[richard-westwood]

Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 14th of August 3.00 bath ocean legend is fav here (72) but is very short and looks vulverable to an improver today .........MUHANDIS (77) didnt like to drop in trip lto and had a poor start .......looks on a par with the fav based on previous run over 1 mile yet is 3x the price at 6/1 !! just looks good value to me especially e.w muhandis 5pts e.w 6/1 sporting bet

[richard-westwood]

Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 14th of August 3.20 ayr sam sharp recorded a decent time lto on soft ground over 1mile (82) and that would give him sound chances in this race ......better ground today but he can handle it and hcapper has generously dropped 1lb from that last run so all in all decent chance today .......7/1 with will hill looks good odds sam sharp 5pts e.w 7/1 will hill non runner .......

[Verisimilitude]

Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 14th of August

Emperor's Daughter 3.30 Bath. 1 point win. Running consistently without due reward and should again go well today. The trip and ground isn't any concern and Shane Kelly, who rode him on debut, gets the leg up again today. Gave an easy ride on debut to start his career, then had a few runs in between to get him into the winners enclosure under Shane Kelly. All looks set for a big run. 7/2 Bet365 (bog)

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 14th of August Well done Lars and BKI :clap

[Lodge]

Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 14th of August

WANNABE KING (15:20) has the Visor back on and that could make all the difference, looking in dire need of headgear last time out. He also probably needed the run then too, especially as it was his first run for 91 days and he blew up pretty spectacularly in the home straight. Although some will say that he’s regressed badly and unlikely to pick up a race in this current form, Geoff Harker is a dab hand at getting that back to their best and I’m convinced that his last run was a tune-up for something else. Whether it’s today is the big question, but he’s a big enough price to chance with plenty to suit. He enjoys the quick ground, gets his trip of a mile and has the visor reapplied. Although not having much form in it, his reappearance effort wearing one in a Conditions event at the start of the season was hardly bad form and then his run in the Thirsk Hunt Cup, which should be overlooked altogether considering he was held-up (likes to sit prominently) and he got no run anyway. Jordan Nason takes off 7lbs and although not the strongest in the saddle at the moment, he has rode 3 winners in 2012 and is probably value for some of that claim. I’m prepared to follow this one for a while until it wins, but off a mark of 83 he really should be winning soon, and with the 7lb claim he looks more well-handicapped. Minimum stake stuff but hopefully the market will speak in his favour and he’ll go well.

3:20 Ayr Wannabe King 1pt win - 16/1 (Bet365) Wannabe King isn't one to give up on just yet, not at a price like this anyway. He gets his favoured conditions here of a mile on a good surface and importantly has 7lbs taken off his back as he is being ridden by Jordan Nason. He was easily holding his own last year off marks in the high 90s and even defied a mark of 95 last April. He made a satisfactory return to action behind Jet Away over an inconvenient trip and has since ran in two handicaps, finishing way down the field. At 16/1, given he has his optimum conditions, he's massive value.

Well done to both of you on this one :notworthy Glad i followed!

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 14th of August Here is praying that your double comes up Lars! I will be shouting it on for you mate. Great shout. Well done too BKI! Great stuff.

[Lars]

Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 14th of August

Here is praying that your double comes up Lars! I will be shouting it on for you mate. Great shout. Well done too BKI! Great stuff.

Thanks all. Won so easily in the end, Jordan Nason barely had to do anything! I bloody hope so too! Usually when I need one to finish off a big-priced multiple it finishes 3rd. All I hope for is that it either wins or doesn't lose the race in a photo, it'd break my heart.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 14th of August 4.20 Ayr - 2pts win La Bacouetteuse @ 15/2 (VC) I backed this horse when he won at Musselburgh by a very narrow margin earlier this season and he has conditions here to suit and I'm hopeful that he'll get involved at a decent price today. Since that game win (niggled throughout, stayed on strongly to lead and battled on well) he's run two good races with another narrow victory coming in the latter of those as he drew clear with a subsequent winner off a 4lb higher mark. Upped to a mark of 71 he couldn't compete in a hot 2 mile race at York which was a 0-90 affair so it was always going to be a tough ask and the return to this grade and this trip will suit. His climb up the weights is negated by the 7lb claim of George Chaloner. Interestingly he's 1-1 for the Iain Jardine yard so there's no concern about his booking and he looks a value bet with conditions to suit and potentially nicely weighted. Hopefully they'll go an honest gallop and this looks fairly likely with a few of these likely to go forward and he should be staying on at the death.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 14th of August

Thanks all. Won so easily in the end, Jordan Nason barely had to do anything! I bloody hope so too! Usually when I need one to finish off a big-priced multiple it finishes 3rd. All I hope for is that it either wins or doesn't lose the race in a photo, it'd break my heart.

If the double is landed you'll be a genius in my book. Couldn't have backed either myself I don't think! Will be cheering the Brazilian chap on...

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 14th of August

Thanks all. Won so easily in the end, Jordan Nason barely had to do anything! I bloody hope so too! Usually when I need one to finish off a big-priced multiple it finishes 3rd. All I hope for is that it either wins or doesn't lose the race in a photo, it'd break my heart.

When money pours in for a Goldie runner (Hawdyerwheest), it can be ominous. Considering Borntobeachamp started with a rating of 85 only last year, and now runs off a mark of 49, it is fair to say it is extremely well handicapped, 36 pounds lower now and Fanning on board ... Here is hoping mate! :hope

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 14th of August I don't like that Goldie horse. Never have for one reason or another. Wouldn't back it with stolen money personally. Penang Pegasus is the one to beat in my book but I suppose it is so weak that a horse like Josh's could pop up and bounce back.

[Lars]

Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 14th of August Well, wrong tactics employed but they probably wanted him to stay the trip. Useless by him though. Oh well, at least it was over quickly :rollin

[BKI Punter]

Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 14th of August Cheers guys, well in Lars. What was the r4? I played on the exchanges, took 20.0 and it was settled at 17.64. edit, don't worry, found it!

[richard-westwood]

Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 14th of August 4.50 ayr stakes returned from earlier so ill have a go at a double in the last 2 races at ayr.......stake booster in first leg .......nasharra ran a blinder lto and looks a good bet on paper but with different condtions not a cert and majuro also looks to have claims now back in trip .......will try both for a boost nasharra 3/1 5pts win will hill majuro 5pts win 9/2 bet365

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 14th of August 5.20 Nottingham - 2pts win Finch Flyer @ 20/1 (Bet365) Can't help but feel this horse is overpriced in this apprentice handicap for all he doesn't win very often. His only career win came over this trip on similarly decent ground and he does seem to prefer a sound surface. Crucially that comfortable win came off this mark so he is capable of winning off his current rating and has an okay apprentice on board in Nicole Norblad. Campaigned mainly over the jumps, this horse ran well last time out in that sphere but also ran pretty well on the level when last seen at Warwick. The ground was on the soft side, he got briefly outpaced when they quickened off the turn and then suffered from a lack of a run when trying to make progress. He had to be switched wide and didn't finish too far back in a race that worked out okay. The cheekpieces were back on for his recent good run at Stratford and they seem to help him. They are retained today and he's worth a bet at such a price given conditions appear to be in his favour with this track suiting better than Warwick.

[richard-westwood]

Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 14th of August 7.35 yarm play street ran a cracker lto and although penalised showed an extreme turn of foot ........rated (80) + could go in again despite penalty play street 5pts win 7/2 bet365 might play a double if wins

[richard-westwood]

Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 14th of August 8.05 yarm they are not running at the mo !!! kashgar and porcini are joint top rated here on (78) and both look capable of taking this at a fair price ........lets hope for a good run at least kashgar 5pts win 11/2 ladbrokes poecini 5pts win 7/1 bet365 porcini non runner replace with curly come home 4/1 bet365