Italian Antepost - 2012-13

[ultravires]

For both Serie A and Serie B.

[ultravires]

Re: Italian Antepost - 2012-13 There really isn't much available at the moment but it can't hurt to get the juices flowing. I don't really see any team touching Juventus for the title. They have had a seriously good market and the only thing missing is a CF who can finish. I wouldn't think it entirely necessary though, should they grab someone top class like Jovetic. A possible problem could be Conte getting dragged into this betting scandal. It seems as though he is knee deep in it anyway, with a possible ban of 6 months. Juventus would definitely want him back but no self-respecting manager is going to want to be a 6 month intern. It is always dangerous to read too much into pre-season but I like the look of Roma - a lot. Zeman will always give you a flowing attack with less focus put on the defensive side of things. It's going to be a fun ride whatever the case, but if they grab a couple of decent defenders (especially full-backs), then they could challenge for the best of the rest. I also quite like the look of Parma. I think they'll be a solid club this season - much like last season. They have dealt well so far and a top-half finish could well be on the cards. It's not worth getting overly concerned yet, because this is one of the last leagues to start and there is a lot of business to be done yet.

[Mindfulness]

Re: Italian Antepost - 2012-13 In Serie A I will be interested to see how Fiorentina get on under Montella. His Catania outfit had a decent footballing philosophy and he will surely try and bring this to the Viola. Obviously Montolivo has gone and 1 or 2 doubts over whether Jovetic will remain. I feel Montella's sides are always greater than the sum of their parts so perhaps they will do better than some are expecting despite the fact their 2 star players could be gone. I'm not looking to make anykind of antepost play on them but it will be interesting to see if we can get some decent value backing them for individual games this season. This leads me to Montella's old club Catania, Rolando Maran has been bought in as coach from Serie B side Varese. He was a decent coach in the second tier and I think it could be a shrewd move by the Sicilians. Under his stewardship Varese played some very tidy posession football and press well without it so it shouldn't be a big breakaway from Montella's style. Should also be noted that Varese were one of the fittest teams in Serie B last year which allowed them to be strong through to the very end of the campaign. Again, no antepost plays (yet) but I will be interested to see how Catania get on with Maran incharge. Like Ultravires has said there is a long way to go before Italy kicks off and plenty of moves to be made in the transfer market. Agree about Zeman at Roma, pretty sure it'll be his relentless 4-3-3 setup with kamikaze full-backs. I expect they will be very strong at home again this year but 1 or 2 opportunities to oppose them in big games when they travel.

[Rob the I ty]

Re: Italian Antepost - 2012-13 Cant see anyone winning but Juve tbh. 2.10 is short but I would say they have about 55-65% chance of repating. I do think Milan will get better as the season goes on but they will sorely miss Ibra, Silva and Nesta early on. Inter were an abosulte mess last season but they do have the talent to grow as a team. However Milito was the only one scoring for them last season and Sneijder seems to be fading. Roma could be an intruiging team with Zeman. They have plenty of attacking options up front probably the most dynamic in Serie A. A front 3 of Destro, Lamela and Totti can be devastating with Bojan coming off the bench. Burdisso and Heinze are decent central pairing and Balzaretti is a nice addition as well. If they can stay healthy in defense and click with Zeman's system they can compete, one thing for sure they will be the most entertaining side IMO. Napoli have the talent and playing on two fronts hurt them last season. Mazzari is a poor manager though IMO. Lazio haven't done much to improve. Zarate is back and I think he could surprise and regain some of the form he had in his first season with Lazio. But Petkovic's 3 man back line will take time to gel especially since Lazio don't have the defenders for that type of backline. Their mids looks strong especially the attacking mids even with Mauri out. Udinese should be decent and probably a top 7 team. If they progress in the Champions League it will hurt their domestic play. Fiorentina could be a surprise outfit they replaced Montolive with Aguilani which is very like for like though Aquilani is far too brittle. They made alot of changes but smart ones IMO. Can't see Parma replicating last seaons late form, no Giovinco hurts them. It would have been nice to see Pescara compete had they held onto Zeman, Verratti, Immobile and Insigne.

[ultravires]

Re: Italian Antepost - 2012-13 Still not much floating about. I don't think Juventus are much value tbh. The only way 2.00-ish could be value to win the league is if they recruit a top-class striker. They may well do but they are taking their time with it and something doesn't feel right. They have the best squad for sure, but they will take a serious crack at the CL (probably targeting Semi's) and without that striker they struggle to put away chances. It seems ludicrous to mention Roma and the Scudetto but I think they are the value bet if you can get them in the 20's - which is widely available. There is an air of excitement and while I am trying hard not to buy into it, Zeman does have a track record so we know what to expect. They have the best attacking depth and a good midfield. A commanding CB and I'd play them in a value sense. I'm definitely thinking they will be closest to Juventus. They have no European football, and that is ultimately what won Juve the league last year. I'm getting excited, but still not close to pulling on anything.

[Dylan]

Re: Italian Antepost - 2012-13 Really looking forward to another season in Serie A. Its good to see a bit of discussion on here already, so here are my thoughts for whatever they are worth. Its a bit long so apologies in advance. The big news from yesterday is that Conte has been given a 10 month ban, so is out of match day management for this season. Whilst Conte will appeal I don’t think the Italian FA are going to budge too much on this decision, and it’s a blow for Juve. How big of one it is I’m still not sure and I’ll guess that we’ll have to wait to find out. Juve certainly looked strong against Napoli in the Super Coppa on Friday, and from what the club and players are saying they are determined to succeed in honour of Conte. They have strengthened extremely well in the summer, moving quickly to secure the hard working Asamoah and Isla from Udinese, and have since added a couple more faces to bring even more depth to what was already the best squad in the league. Don’t forget as well that the atomic ant himself Giovinco is also back and in this team should be able to at least match his goal scoring records from his time at Parma. So overall I think Juve will still be too strong for everyone else in this league, but I don’t expect the dominance to be as strong as it was last year without Conte. However at best price 2.38, I’m not sure whether these are tasty enough for an antepost bet. After Juve , the rest of the league is as always tough to predict with a lot of big teams fighting out for only a couple of other Champions League spots. Last season Milan and Udinese grabbed the last two spots but I think both will struggle to do something similar this year. Milan are screwed at the moment unless they can use some of the PSG money to get immediate replacements for Silva and Ibra. Given that both are more less the best in the world at their positions that’s going to be a tough task. Zapata has come in to the defence but I never rated him all that much when he was at Udinese and they certainly never missed him last season. Their current back line and defensive midfielders are so poor when compared to Milan teams of the past and I’m pretty sure they will unable mount the same challenge as last season. They’ve also lost 28 goals with Ibra moving and whilst I remain in hope that Pato finds his goal scoring touch it’s a big ask. Udinese have again this summer cemented there place as a feeder team to Serie A’s big boys. As mentioned earlier they have lost Asamoah & Isla to Juve and the keeper Handanovic has also moved onto Inter . That’s another 3 key men gone to join the three they lost the summer before and whilst Guidolin did an amazing job to cope last year I think this might finally be too much to deal with. I expect a reasonable campaign, Guidolins outfights are always hard working and defensively sound but Champions League qualification is unlikely for me. So who does that leave? Lazio, last seasons surprise package will hopefully struggle to match their achievements this season . They put in some absolutely shocking performances in the second half of last season, and became a complete mess in the last few weeks and they only held onto forth due to everyone’s elses mishaps. Reja is eventually gone, with Bosnian coach Vladamir Petkovic coming in with an underwhelming CV. I’m thinking that its back to mid table for Lazio this season. Napoli have lost Lavezzi, who for me was the most important of their three ‘tenors’, but at the time of writing I’m quite impressed that they have held onto to all other key men. Without the distractions of the Champions League and if Mazzarri can get a grip of himself at times then they still look like a good shout for a top 2-4 position in my eyes, and I think they may be worth considering in e/w or top 3 / 4 markets although I haven’t looked at the odds yet. Another team which I’m surprised haven’t been mentioned so far on this thread is Inter. Last season despite the mid season run of wins was a forgettable one but they did show some signs of life against the likes of Udinese and Milan towards the end of the season. The defence is still poor, but what I do like about this Inter team is the movement and creativity in midfield particularly evident since Stramaconi took over. They still have Sneidjer who hopefully will find form again, and with Obi, Guarin, Alverez and players supporting in wide positions it certainly looks a little bit fresher. They should be able to create chances and the line up of Palacio, Milito and Pazzini is arguably as strong as any. I can see Inter scoring plenty this season and I imagine the same might happen with Roma under Zemen. He has an attacking philosophy which should work with the players he has at the club. However whilst it will be very exciting to watch and we all hope Zemen has success I do think its probably too early to be mentioning them as title challengers. The defence is usually exposed in a Zemen team and as we saw last year Roma can almost be as calamitous as their neighbours Lazio when it comes to defending. The signing of Bradley is astute, and whilst he and De Rossi will form a midfield shield it remains to be seen whether this will be enough. As Ultravires says, a decent addition to defence may make them a more interesting betting prospect. However even with the current squad I wouldn’t say a top 4 finish is not out the question, with the same applying to Inter. I also hope that Montella does well at Fiorentina but I don’t think anything above a top 7-8 is likely. I will try and take a look at odds for both the top and bottom of the table nearer the start of the season as more things are available.

[Mindfulness]

Re: Italian Antepost - 2012-13

Napoli have lost Lavezzi' date=' who for me was the most important of their three ‘tenors’, but at the time of writing I’m quite impressed that they have held onto to all other key men. Without the distractions of the Champions League and if Mazzarri can get a grip of himself at times then they still look like a good shout for a top 2-4 position in my eyes, and I think they may be worth considering in e/w or top 3 / 4 markets although I haven’t looked at the odds yet.[/quote'] The departure of Lavezzi was indeed a blow but lookout for the new third tenor, Lorenzo Insigne. The Italy U21 international scored 18 goals while on loan at Pescara in 2011-2012, his finishing ability is excellent and I think he will fit in nicely to Napoli's forward trident. Watch out for him and Genoa's new centre-forward Ciro Immobile, these guys are the new kids on the block in Serie A this season and could really cause some damage.

[Dylan]

Re: Italian Antepost - 2012-13 Thats an interesting point, and they still have Pandev and the winter buy Vargas as well who can come in. Whether anyone of them individually are able to step up into Lavezzi role is a big question but at least they have options to mix it up. The more I think about it the more I do fancy Napoli as the best of the rest. The additions of Behrami and Gamberini from Fiorentina should help strengthen the squad a little bit more defensively . Hopefully it means we may see less of Aronica this season. Its a shame that Pescara haven't been able to keep any of Immobile, Insigne, Veratti or there manager Zemen. They provided plenty of entertainment in Serie B last year but with 46 goals between them Immobile and Insigne will be missed. Wiess is a decent signing for them but I don't think its enough at the moment and they are likely to struggle. Had they kept the same team I would have fancied them to keep out of a relegation battle but that seems unlikely now.

[Mindfulness]

Re: Italian Antepost - 2012-13

Its a shame that Pescara haven't been able to keep any of Immobile' date=' Insigne, Veratti or there manager Zemen. They provided plenty of entertainment in Serie B last year but with 46 goals between them Immobile and Insigne will be missed. Wiess is a decent signing for them but I don't think its enough at the moment and they are likely to struggle. Had they kept the same team I would have fancied them to keep out of a relegation battle but that seems unlikely now.[/quote'] Yeh Pescara are an interesting one, it's virtually an entirely new team this campaign. I don't know much about the coach Giovanni Stroppa other than he played under Zeman at Foggia so perhaps the apple will not fall far from the tree in terms of strategy etc. The signings they've made (and there's been many) also seem to suggest this. As you said Weiss is a decent signing and should do well at this level. They've purchased a lot of offensive forward players including Colombia's Juan Quintero, striker Abbruscato (who scored a few in Serie B) and perhaps most impressively centre-forward Jonathas from Brescia who I think despite his young age and occasional petulant attitude could do a job at this level. Centre-back Terlizzi has been their main defensive signing so far who has Serie A experience with Catania. It's a very young side and ultimately this may cost them, they need 1 or 2 older players imo to steady the ship and bring cohesion. Very offensive by the looks of things, if they can put teams on the back foot at the Stadio Adriatico anywhere near like they did in 2011-2012 then they have a chance of staying up but Stroppa is gonna have to be at the top of his game. Sounds like stating the obvious but they will take some absolute woundings along the way and the coach needs to make sure this doesn't hurt the morale of his young players.

[Dylan]

Re: Italian Antepost - 2012-13 Have just seen that BetVictor have Napoli at 9/1 to be the best of the rest (excluding Juve). Its way too early to take anything but that will be something i'll consider if its still at the price nearer the time and Cavani is still there. I imagine you'll be able to get around 3/1 on a top 3 finish as well.

[Mindfulness]

Re: Italian Antepost - 2012-13 I think both of those are potentially decent, can be difficult to find any value plays on the Serie A antepost but with question marks over the credentials of AC, Inter, Lazio and Udinese you would have to say Napoli look the more robust outfit at present. Things can change very quickly though, and still a lot of moves in the transfer market to be made you'd feel.

[azzurini1976]

Re: Italian Antepost - 2012-13 Views on Serie A 2012/13 - part one (title challenge and CL fight) Title challenge Juventus Preferably the strongest team in A this season. They bought well and despite i dont see them bringing desired world class striker, they have depth throught the team. Problems are playing in CL as no Europe last season was for me deciding factor to win Scudetto and no Conte on bench. I see it as a hard seson for them as playing some 10 games more during midweeks will cost them, no matter if they have big squad. Inter Milan Stramacciationi will have to prove that he is worth a gamble. Inter have not make any big name signings, but bought wisely. Handanovic, Silvester and Palacio are proven quality names in A and they will add a big plus to Inter. Some dead wood was gone and i reckon if they find the rhytm they can go and push for the title. If they would not play in Europe this season i would have them as the main contenders next to Juve. But again, question is what squad will play those games, usualy Italian clubs field reserve team is those games, but that was not the case in 2nd leg against Hajduk, despite winning 3-0 the first game, Inter had a strong squad playing – but probably it was due to preparation. Special mention to Guarin who is also like new signing as he is finally fit and ready. Champions league challenge Milan They did loose Ibra and Silva, but they should be accounted for. Milan despite all goings away are strong team. I dont see them as Serie A contenders but they can push for CL places. They still have two world class players in Boateng and Pato, if the latter can hold without injuries, Milan should be alright. Problem is they now have attack like Barca (short) and it will hurt their offensive play. Defence with Silva and Nesta gone is question, wing back are standard, but Acerbi and Zapata can do okay. Problem is Milan lost almost all the depth they had in long serving veterans (Gattuso, Bommel, Inzaghi, Seedorf….) and that will hurt them probalby the same as Ibra and Silva gone. Still, i believe in Allegri to get 110% from this team. Lazio I do expect Lazio to do well. Ederson is very good signing and with new coach they could do well. They we surprise last season, this one they need to build on that. Problem is midweek football, but again B team should play. I do believe that geled team with no major changes do have neccesary quality to do very well again. Roma This one is hard. Zeman is all attack in league where defence bring the title. But i must admit that Sabatini has done great nad brought at least 3 huge players for Roma. Bradley should be the biggest surprise of them all. IMO most underated player of them all in Serie A, great worker with excellent pass. Destro is a new star in making and Balzaretti one of better full backs in league. I have seen glimpses of Castan who looks solid and with Burdisso finally healthy it can be good CD for Roma. If Bojan explodes and if Totti stay healthy, Roma should have at least good chance of going the distance for 3rd place. Scudetto for this season is for me out of the question. Napoli They did loose Lavezzi, but Hamsik and more importnatly Cavani are still in Sicily. All in all, no major changes in team, they will still be strong and more importantly made small tweaks here and there and i can expect again super strong home team, with top class striker and excellent Hamsik behind. To be honest, i had them as my favourite last season for the title, but this one without Lavezzi and no adequate replacment they stood no chance. Also with Mazzari they are not the team to go playing in streaks, to many ups and downs for them. next safe mid positions 7-12...

[azzurini1976]

Re: Italian Antepost - 2012-13 safe medium position: places 7 - 10 Fiorentina they looked like a lost case, but after Jovetic is probalby staying put, and bringing in some excellent names, they looks destined for strong season. Viviano, Cuadrado, Borja, Gonzalo, Pizzaro, Aquilani are excellent additions, and for now i must grade the pre season as A+. Boruc is gone, but Viviano is top keeper IMO. If Vargas stays, they can be even dangerous for CL fight. All in all, Fiore will surely better their last seasons position. Cagliari One of my favourite teams in this league, so small but doing so well with all the signings with limited budget fitting in well. Astori looks to be staying put, Pinilla aswell and if no bigger moves at the end of window, they will have easy campaign, surely some good results against big clubs and position between places 7-10 should be secure this season Parma Donadoni lost Atom Ant and he was true leader of this team, but most of the other parts reamin intact and Parma also managed to bring in some really interesting individuals. Parolo from Cesena is a big name for them, also Rosi who was shown the door at Roma will do fine, AMauri will score some 10 goals and i must mention three players that could and sohuld add to the quality: Ninis, Fidellef and Pabon. Udinese Again they lost big, Handanovic, Isla and Kwando have all left but last season Zapata, Inler and Sanchez left but Udine were again up there. It is a question if new faces can duplicate last seasons succes, sure Danilo and Benatia are there, and they make excellent back line and some south americans came in the team and i do think they should do just fine and bring Udine some healthy profit in year or two. places 11-14 Bologna Bologna should get better than last season. They got some good new players in such as Guarente, Natali…They lost only good keeper Gillet but Curci should do fine to cover. I think Bologna played good last season and with keeping their main power together (such as Diamanti) they should be okay this season Atalanta Atalanta was tough team to play in last season and this season much will depend on Denis again, but i believe the team that Colantuno have on his disposal is strong with added value of Brivio and Matheu. They kept Schelotto who is strong player and overall i believe they will be sure of survival. With Denis in form they can go even higher up the table. Chievo Chievo every season proves odds wrong, now they are established as the best small club in Italy. Their positivie approach to the game should keep the afloat also this season. But probalby it will be harder. Two important players left – Acerbi to Milan and Bradley to Roma, Rigoni his replacement. I do believe in Chievo to have put together again solid group that should have no problems staying up, but i doubt they can crawl over place 12 at the end more likely some relegation worries, but still, i have them in safe mid position in my book. Genoa Genoa a team which surely dont have any consistency in terms of keeping squad together. Again lots of players left, lots of them came, and they are lucky to have financial power to buy the right ones to stay afloat. Cant see this being their season and more likely relegation fight for them, but due to quality of team, they will stay afloat.

[azzurini1976]

Re: Italian Antepost - 2012-13 Relegation fight Sampdoria I am not sure, but Sampdoria might surprise this season, but i cant put them higher in my book. Team is solid. Goalie Romero is quality and with Maxi Lopez they got go-to player in attack, with Palombo and Poli they got solid midfield (Poli is in demand, so if the right offer comes, he might leave). Estiragibia came from Juve so thats a plus for attacking department. Defence is also solid with some experienced A players, but overall, they lack cover in attack – Eder might be surprise, but with Pozzi and Maccarone, i dont see them scoring lots of goals. Ferrara will have lots of work this season, but if all clicks and the key players keeping their form and health, Sampdoria might live another season in A Palermo I really dont get the management of Palermo. They are methodically selling their best players and trying to implement Udinese model, which aint working. If last season, they werent so succesful at home, i still believe they could be down there with the relegation strugglers. New coach Sanino for them, and he is used to relegation battles (Siena). To get to lost players. Balzaretti out is huge blow, and to spend the majority of transfer kitty on two 18 year olds from South America is just insane. I will be honest, i dont know the players yet, but i dont see them being instant hit this season. Pastore was lost last season, Ilicic out of form and Hernandez is probably the biggest name in this team. Ujkani and Morganella came back from Novara but i doubt they can compensate the lost players. To emphasise – Palermo won just one game from march last season till the end of Serie A – that was probably their true face. Got to see how their defence is working under Sannino, but i dont have major expectations for this team. Catania Argenitinian contingent in Europe, if i am correct then there are some 13 Argentinian players in Catania. Overall, Catania changed the least of all teams. They still look compact and a team with big depth. But i just got the feeling they wont do so well this term. Last season it was Montella who took them for a good ride, Maran who came from Varese is in for a tough job. Overall Catania should do fine, but much is dependable from their midfield – Almiron and Lodi. If these two can again play to their max, Catania could be higher on the table, but still due to strenght of other teams i have put them in this part of the table. Relegation candidates Siena Siena lost Destro and lost coach Sannino wihch made them tough team to play against so it is a big question how new look Siena will work together. Completely new defence, new look midfield and attack which looks very weak to me. I cant see Siena replicating last seasons succesfull season and tough relegation battle is what i expect from them. Pescara Pescara probably the weakest of them all, newly in A, lost some main wepons in Zeman and Veratti along with Insigne and Immobile - that were probably the best three players for them last season. Too much has changed but still it might be the motivational levels that can help Pescara, at least in opening stages, as they do have some excellent talent in their ranks – Jonathas, Weiss, Caprari, Quintero…but overall, they lack exdperience which could be crucial in key games. Torino They tweaked the team from last season, wher they were confident in coming back to top level. But still they lack quality throught the team. Meggiorini, Gillet, Ogbonna…might be good players for this level, but on the long run Torino will have hard time of getting to stay in the league. Overall this league gets more and more equal. There are some seven teams that should be stronger than the rest of the pack, but from places 8-20 i believe it will be huge fight for every point, and that makes it hard for the punter as surprises should be served on weekly basis. The only value i have seen so far in ante post bets is Inter to win it @ 6

[ultravires]

Re: Italian Antepost - 2012-13 Done some delving into the antepost marking but the only solid feeling I still have is to fade Milan. I do think that the Scudetto is relatively firmly in Juve's hands so I'm staying clear of that market to be honest. Beyond Juventus though, Milan are still considered the closest runners which quite frankly baffles me. IMO the serious chasers are going to be Roma, Napoli and Inter. Milan may be somewhat in this mix but I see them behind those three teams in the chase. Right now this is roughly how I see their season squad: --------Abbiati Abate - Zapata - Acerbi/Yepes - Antonini ----- Nocerino - Montolivo - Muntari/Constant ------------ KPB - Robinho ---------------- Pato/Pazzini As a squad there are issues all over the pitch. The CB's are going to be a new partnership. Zapata becomes their primary CB which is not all that bad. He is a good defender on his day, but he comes to Milan after a dreadful season with Villarreal. If he hits the level he had with Udinese then he will get through the season decently. I have some doubts because I think he was somewhat protected at Udinese due to how they play deep ,on the counter. Acerbi or Yepes are not good enough to start a whole season for Milan. Acerbi is young and inexperienced. From what I have seen he does not justify the 'hype' around him. Yepes is experienced but very, very slow. Full-backs are less of an issue, but still are not great. Due to the players at his disposal, I think Allegri will play deeper this season with more of an emphasis on counter-attacking. I don't think they will be able to control a match as well as previously. Montolivo is some injection of creativity in the midfield, more than they had last year at least. He has always been dreadfully inconsistent though, and over a season he will go missing. There is no real alternative to him so whether he holds in the middle, or plays to the side of Ambrosini the ball will have to come through him. Nocerino, Muntari, Constant, Traore and Flamini are all able workers who can fill the other two spots. There is depth in a sense for those roles but they are only decent players - at best. Up front they have lost their main player. Ibra was Milan in the attacking third and the players who tried to feed off whatever crumbs he left now have to step up. Pato is the primary candidate but he will not go the whole season without being injured. As a player he has lost a great deal of momentum and I don't think he will ever hit the heights expected of him. In a good season he can get 15 goals. Robinho and El Sha and Boateng float in and out of games. None are scorers, and for various reasons they all go missing too much. Pazzini is potentially the striker they need. He requires absolute service though, he cannot create anything for himself. Robinho, El Sha and Boateng are all somewhat creative but they are not outstanding in that sense. They are all best at doing a little bit of everything. I don't see a player in Milan's team that will dictate matches very often. This team has lost both their defensive and attacking leaders and must now adjust to playing without them. I see a lot of weakness in this team and I think they will really struggle this season. This squad also has to contend with CL football until November-ish - at the least. They should be able to get through the groups and face another two matches in February. That is probably a realistic map for their journey. If they underwhelm then they will be playing EL football having come 3rd in their CL group. That would be even more football for them to juggle. Last season they had an absolute nightmare with injuries. If they have even half as bad a season in that respect then they will be hit hard. The quality in depth just isn't there. Too much importance is going to be placed on Zapata, Montolivo and Pato. First of, those three players need to step up consistently - which they may not do. If they do, then Milan one section of Milan's team will be screwed when those players cannot play. This is a team in free-fall. It has been a disgraceful Summer for Milan and I can really see them getting left behind. There is tension between the management, no money and we are still yet to see their best XI on a pitch this Summer. I'm rambling a bit, but I think I have expressed my view on Milan in terms of season long thinking. I think Napoli, Roma and Inter are all in better positions to finish higher. I'll go into those tomorrow because I am getting tired. Right now I am looking at laying Milan for a top 3 finish. You can currently do so for a decent amount of money at 1.76. That would require 2 of Inter, Roma and Napoli to finish above them - IMO. I don't see any other team breaking into those positions, and Juventus should finish 1st. Unibet also have Inter 2.20 to finish above Milan. So while my thoughts on Milan are pretty well established (in my mind), how I will act on them is not yet as clear. Any thoughts on Milan vs the other teams mentioned would be very welcome.

[ultravires]

Re: Italian Antepost - 2012-13 This is part two of my bet against Milan. I see the realistic rivals for Milan's top 3 spot as Napoli, Roma and Inter. I am finding it hard to separate the three of them for various reasons, which is why I find it more appealing to just lay Milan. Roma have a big plus in their favour this season in that they will only be competing in domestic competitions. They have a good amount of depth anyway, but only having the league and cup to think about there is far less rotation to consider. It is quite widely known how Zeman sends his teams out. He completely disregards defence. His teams hold a high defensive line and press a lot from the front. With a high line, I would like fast defenders. Neither Burdisso or Castan have that pace and that could be a problem. Castan, like Burdisso, looks to be fairly no nonsense and committed. During a debut season I can't imagine that Burdisso is the best CB to play alongside. Balzaretti is very solid LB and will get the job done effectively as well as getting forward - though his output is not that good. From what I understand Piris is an attacking RB so there could also be issues there. This team is built for attacking though and moving forward things get very exciting. DDR is one of the best, IMO the best, DM in the world. He can do everything and with turning down City he intends to lead this team. Bradley is a battling midfielder who is also decent at passing and scoring. Pjanic is a very creative player who oozes class. He will have the least defensive responsibility of the three. Together I think they are a very well balanced trio who can only be rivalled by Juve's (Pirlo, Vidal, Marichisio). Depth is also there. Tachtsidis looks promising as a vice-DDR. A physical player who is also classy on the ball, though he looks raw. Florenzi, Marquinho and Perrotta offer further depth - to a degree. The midfield is merely a gateway to attack though. Roma have a great looking front line this season. As things stand I believe Osvaldo will start as the prima-punta. He did well last year and can only hope for more in a Zeman led team. He's physical and is a good finisher. Not fantastic with the ball at his feet but he doesn't need to be. Lamela will start wide right and he is great with the ball. A fast dribbler with great technique. He will be a direct threat to every teams LB. Totti has looked surprising good starting from the left of the front 3. He looks in the best physical shape for along time and looks as though he will have a great season. He is a different kind of threat given that he will float around and with the ball at his feet he is still as good as anyone at finding a pass. The depth up front is also good. Bojan will be an impact sub this season, which is probably his best role. Lopez looks like a wildcard to throw on if need be. A raw but very talented wide attacker. Destro will be challenging Osvaldo for the prima-punta role. He has impressed pre-season and looks like a tactically aware player. He can play with the ball to feet or on the shoulder a defender in behind. I think this is the best group of attackers in the league and they will score bags of goals. The D will obviously suffer but Serie A is in relatively thin supply of potent attacks so they should conceivably outscore most teams. The lack of European football is also a huge plus. Inter are a little bit an unknown entity to me - in how well they can perform this season. I think as a team they have more reason for motivation this season. Even so they have already shown an underwhelming performance in the EL. Their D is still inconsistent. They seem as though no matter how well they are playing, they are always one touch away from a howler. Silvestre is a good signing - nothing more. He doesn't inspire great confidence from me. Samuel is an experienced CB and needs to be because physically he is waning. Rannochia can hopefully have a better season for them as he still has potential. He needs to fix up though because last year he was dreadful. Nagatomo is a meh full-back. Maicon seems a little more in the game during pre-season. Perhaps he has finally given up on moving to Madrid and will actually give some effort. JZ is JZ. Juan is supposedly a promising Brazilian who looks very physical. The midfield is held up by Guarin. He has the lungs and legs to hold up a midfield. He will be their driving force in there this season - and a good one at that. Mudingayi is a fairly typical destroyer type player. Cambiasso is really just clinging on. He can do a little bit of everything, but becoming less effective at everything. He'll cope better in a trio as opposed to a duo this season though. Depth is a big issue though so I think we will see a duo when one of those three cannot play. They are all in there to win the ball back and move it on to Sneijder essentially. They should be competent at doing so but I don't see how they can control games against the better sides as they have in the past. This team still lives or dies on the shoulders of Sneijder. If his head is in the game then he is fantastic and Inter can be. If he isn't then they are just XI players running round. He has a potential side-kick this season in Cassano. An utter wildcard as well, on his day he can be mercurial. They are far from a stable pairing, but if they can share the load then there is creativity to be harnessed. Coutinho is also a good option from the bench. Alvarez not so much, but he may well improve this season. Milito is the second most important player in this team as he is the only finisher. Consistently capable of 15 goals a season he is a great finisher. I think he can still do it for this season at least. He is their only prima-punta though so without him they need serious adjustment. He will get good service this season and goals should follow. Palacio is another good option with his direct wide attacking. All in all they have a largely good team with peaks and lows sprinkled in. They have enough depth and disregard for the EL to cope as well as possible. It will inevitably impact them to some degree though. They'll be targeting a top 3 finish and it is well within their grasp. They have flair on their day, but will certainly have inconsistencies given the players they rely on. Napoli are the least changed side of all three. They lost Lavezzi and gained a handful of players. Mazzarri is still in charge and with a minor adjustment to 3-5-2 they look well set. The back four are well accustomed to one another. I hope Britos can push his way into the back 3 at the expense of Aronica this season. They also have Gamberini on the books who is another solid option for competition. Maggio will hold it down on the right flank while Dossena and Zuniga will try on the left. They have not changed in a defensive respect. They are a decent base from which to play their counter-attacking football. There has been a slight tweak in midfield as Hamsik has dropped back into the midfield 3. He will break away from the midfield and drive forward with the ball. He is a dangerous player and will always be effective to a degree. I think this move could suit him as he was always a bit inconsistent in the front three. Inler is a good deep player-maker. He settled well last season and I would expect him to pick up where he left off. Dzemaili and Behrami will fight for the third spot. The former is classier on the ball so if Napoli are trying to control a weaker opponent then he will get the nod. If they need a fighter in there then Behrami is a decent option. The same goes for Donadel. It's an effective midfield and one that is flexible enough to adapt to the opposition. Cavani is still the star of the team. They have no replacement for him as he is one of the leading centre forwards in the world. Without him they will always suffer - he is that good. Thus far, he has been fortunate with injuries and Napoli can only hope that continues. In terms of supporting him they have Pandev who was on fire in pre-season. I have never liked him as a player but I think he is going to be an effective option this season. He has no outstanding quality but is very effective. Insigne is a very different player. Supremely talented with the ball he is purely a support striker. Technically he is great and has a wicked shot. Mazzarri is notoriously against blooding youthful talent but he gave Insigne a fair crack in pre-season and was rewarded. I'm still unsure as to whether he will be first-choice over Pandev, but we will see. He is a fantastic option and could really break out this season. In all Napoli have a good team. They are settled at the back and look to have adjusted well up front. They do have EL to compete with which could be an issue for them. I don't believe that they will completely disregard the competition which calls depth into question. It is there to a degree. The attacking third could suffer most as they only really have 3 players to cover 2 spots. Hamsik can always be re-shuffled though, and Mazzarri loves rotation, so I think they will cope as best they can. I see all these teams as at least equal to Milan in the chase for top 3 - if not better than them. Instead of choosing one or two of them to finish in the top three I am laying Milan and hoping 2 of these teams at least do the business. Lay Milan to finish in the top 3 at 1.76 - 25 points liability - Betfair.

[Dylan]

Re: Italian Antepost - 2012-13 Well as Napoli were still at 9/1 yesterday to finish best of the rest excluding Juve, I took a small bet on them. It’s only a small stake as the competition is very tight this season, but it will be exciting to follow throughout the season. I’ll also have little flutter on the top goalscorer market, with money going on Napoli again with Cavani. I know Napoli lost Gargano this week, which is a blow but I do feel that they still strong enough to challenge. They’ve brought Behrami who can put himself about and Dzemeli is also competent enough to fit into the team. Its also likely that we may be seeing a bit more of a defensive Napoli team this season, with just 2 upfront and 5 in midfield (Hamsik likely to drop back)and the fit again Britos coming in to defence to replace the error prone Aronica. Whilst they weren’t awful in defence last season, they did concede a lot more than their other title challengers (46 goals compared 20 from Juve, 35 from Milan and 33 from Udinese) and they do need to see some improvements there. This may come at the detriment of the attack, but they still have great attacking threats with Hamsik from midfield and Cavani up top. He will be well supported by Pandev and exciting Insigne, who will create and contribute goals. However without Lavezzi’s goals (9 last season) and with Hamsik (also 9 last season) further back its obvious the focal point will almost all of the time have to be Cavani, even more so than previous years. With 24 goals to his name last season, he could get similar figures this season I feel. Napoli to finish best of the rest (exc Juve) 10.0 at Bet Victor (1.5 / 10 units) Cavani to be top goal scorer 8.0 at Skybet (1.5 / 10 units) Just to go through some of the other teams / players I ruled out; Ultravires write up re Milan is excellent and my thoughts are very similar. I can’t see any way in which they can challenge for the title with the defensive areas the way they are. They may be fine against the lesser teams but could struggle to pick points up against top 7-8 teams. Their attack still on paper does look good and I think Pazzini will get goals, but he’s never got over 19 in the league so it might be tough to ask him to better than in his first season with a new club. With Pato and El Shaawary on the bench there could be a bit of rotation as well. Inter are looking very good, much better than last season. Whilst they could do with one or two new faces particularly in defence / midfield, my main concern is with the manager. He seems to be doing a great job at the moment and has the players on side but he is very inexperienced at this level and it will be a difficult learning curve particularly when we get well into the season for him to manage 3 competitions, players not happy being on the bench etc. Upfront they have some excellent players, and all 4 key men (Sniejder, Cassano, Milito, Palacio) will get goals but they will probably share the load more so than Napoli I feel. Juve look good for the title, but they are still obviously unhappy with the striking options they have and remain keen to get another man in. At the moment Llorente seems to be the likely candidate, and with any new signing, especially one from a different league it will always be tough to ask them to make an immediate impact. Looking at the line up Fiorentina have, especially in midfield with Valero, Aquilani, Llajic, Jovetic & Pizzaro all being able to pass well and inter-change with each other I expect a more controlled possesion game from Fiorentina this season. This should make them hard to beat, but despite two goals last night I can’t see them or any of their players being prolific this season. How Roma will perform this season is still anyones guess. With Zemen in charge it promises goals, but whilst it might make them the most fun team to watch, I’m not sure it necessary guarantees success. I also feel, a bit like with Inter that they have a number of players that can get goals, not just Destro and Osvaldo but Totti, Lamel & Bojan off the bench and so I can’t see one individual who would be getting 20+ goals. I also don’t expect Udinese to be as good this year and that should have an affect on the number of goals Di Natalie gets. Note - I've just checked before posting and the exc Juve market has disappeared from Victor's website for the time being. Hopefully they put it back up for as the odds were decent for a number of sides.