England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Aug 11

[Shipsupstreets]

[TABLE=class: couponTable]

[TR] [TH=class: firstColumn]Saturday 11 August 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Barrow v AFC Telford United (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 10/11 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 12/5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5/2 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]110.36 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Braintree Town v Hyde FC (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4/5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 12/5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]109.97 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Dartford v Tamworth (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 11/8 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 9/4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 17/10 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]109.91 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Forest Green Rovers v Cambridge United (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 6/5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 12/5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 15/8 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]109.65 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Hereford United v Macclesfield Town (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 11/8 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 9/4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 17/10 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]109.91 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Lincoln City v Kidderminster Harriers (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5/4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 9/4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 15/8 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]110.00 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Luton Town v Gateshead (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 8/15 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 13/5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]109.66 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Mansfield Town v Newport County (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 8/11 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 12/5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 7/2 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]109.53 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Nuneaton Town v Ebbsfleet United (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 6/5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 9/4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]109.56 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Southport v Grimsby Town (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 13/8 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 12/5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 11/8 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]109.61 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Stockport County v Alfreton Town (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 10/11 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 12/5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5/2 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]110.36 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Wrexham v Woking (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1/2 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 13/5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 11/2 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]109.83 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[maliniok]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Aug 11 My first thoughts are that some of the odds presented are ridiculous and there must be some value in backing underdogs and league newcomers. I'm yet to do my research but from memory, newcomers usually do quite well in the first matches and the difference between Conference North and South and midtable Conference premier sides isn't that huge. I mean just look at odds on the likes of Telford, Hyde, Cambridge, Newport, gosh even Woking - some of them will surely win and draw so I think laying the favourites in the first game should be the go ahead. One favourite price I like however is Dartford to beat Tamworth - traditional average side who rather plays better at home than away.

[Darran]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Aug 11 Tamworth have been very quiet this summer, but traditionally have always had a great start to the season only to see them hit poor form and get sucked back towards the bottom four only surviving because of the good start. I think Dartford are capable of surviving but hard to see them being value at 11/8 a month before the game happens. I do think there is a reasonable gap to be honest and I think that is borne out by the fact the promoted sides really struggled last season. Alfreton were shocking at the start of the season and AFC Telford struggled for results all season. Braintree did well and Ebbsfleet had their moments to. I initially thought Hyde would struggle big time with the manager going and a tiny budget, but their hasnt been a big loss of players and the signings dont look too bad. Manager is a big question mark, but I have a feeling they wont do as bad as I first thought. Braintree were very hard to beat at home last season but they have lost some big players and I can see them doing a Bath. Barrow will struggle this year for me, but so will AFC Telford so that looks harder to call and Barrow are obviously hard to beat at home. I think the Cambridge and Newport games are priced up about right. Woking could be interesting though. At times they looked a BSP side last year although in their sticky patch they looked anything but. I dont fancy Wrexham at all this season so might be interested in Woking closer to the time. At this stage nothing appeals as a bet, but then we are a month away and its only one firms odds we are looking at.

[maliniok]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Aug 11 Following from discussions in the antepost thread today (thanks Shipps, Kevshat and Addpea) I am wondering whether there is value to be had in Luton to beat Gateshead to nil. Luton have a solid defense and a great goalkeeper in Tyler and apparently they have improved under Buckle in terms of organisation. What is very important, though, is that they signed Gateshead's top goalscorer Jon Shaw, leaving them with midfielder Cummins (12 goals last season), and strikers Hatch (4 goals since he joined from Darlo in January) and new signing from Hartlepools, James Brown. Brown scored just one goal last season and was released by his club so he is a bit of an enigma at this level. Luton to win to nil currently at 2.6 (8/5 for you Brits;) ) with 365 so I will probably wait to see if other firms put a more tempting price on this market.

[kevshat]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Aug 11 Certainly value there for sure. Although you can't read a whole lot into friendlies our first team haven't conceded a goal in pre-season yet and it's played Wycombe and Ipswich's first teams so that has to count for something when all is said and done.

[zbrochu]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Aug 11 Even though Telford had difficult time last season, fighting to stay outside relegation zone, they managed to won last head to head game between them and Barrow. And it happened despite they got a red card! This kind of teams are very dangerous in ENG Conference, in the first rounds of season. I agree that hosts are favourites here but I would definately not price them as low as 1.90. Therefore I think Telford (+0.5) 1.93 is opportunity just too good to miss! Alfreton won the last head to head game 6-1! Last season they were not very strong, but as I said above for Telford, this kind of mediocre teams can be very dangerous in first rounds of the season. They are fresh and optimistic. Stockport won only 8 of 23 home games last season. Again, I believe Stockport is a stronger team here that should be priced as a slight favorite (2.20?) but bookmakers went too far here and I find Alfreton (+0.5) 1.85 very generous! The other asian handicap picks that I will probably take with lower stakes are: [TABLE=width: 246]

[TR] [TD]Hereford - Macclesfield 2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Braintree - Hyde 2[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE=width: 246] [TR] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Luton - Gateshead 1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Southport - Grimsby 1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Stockport - Alfreton 2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Wrexham - Woking 2[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Shipsupstreets]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Aug 11 Not a great deal of interest in the spreads for me this weekend, but I can't see many goals at Lincoln City/Kidderminster Harriers. With Sam Smith moving to Cambridge United, and some alleged injuries to a few experienced members of the squad, it could be a youngish Lincoln City side that opens the season. Striker Vadaine Oliver is something of an unknown quantity and the players at David Holdsworth's disposal have played okay in pre-season, but there is a general feeling of disruption - there is cost-cutting going on at the club, they have found it hard to attract decent bodies and their last friendly with Leicester City was cancelled. I suggested in the antepost thread that they are potential surprise bottom-four candidates. Kidderminster Harriers - fresh from a poor defeat at home to Stourbridge - have issues up front with Jamille Matt and Anthony Malbon both probably missing, so I'm put off backing them for the win. Defensively they look strong enough to hold a weakish-looking Lincoln attack so I'll be selling the Lincoln mini-performance at 19 with Sporting Index (there's no price at Spreadex as yet).

[kevshat]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Aug 11 Tonight's TV match preview: 4pts Macclesfield to beat Hereford (DNB) 23/20 Bodog Both sides will know that there are tougher tests to come but equally they will know there are much easier ones too and I think both will be happy to pick up a point from this opening match. Macclesfield will take the draw as the away side while Hereford in my eyes just lack a cutting edge to break the better sides down. Macclesfield won’t have that problem. They have a lot of pace in forward areas and if they click straight away they could well be the winners if anyone wins this match. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/hereford-vs-macclesfield-betting-macclesfield-most-likely-to-be-the-ones-to-prevail-in-a-tight-season-opener

[Shipsupstreets]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Aug 11 That's a reasonable shout tonight, Kevshat. I have a feeling Macc will be going into this with a bit of width and will be going on the attack so Macc multicorners are a potential buy at 7 (Sporting and Spreadex). Hereford might be taking a more conservative approach and I suspect they'll be more organised. I've looked at the Macc players listed in the player goal minute market with Sporting and it includes Colin Daniel and Ben Tomlinson, who've left the club, and fails to mention MBH. Rob Edmans has also joined. Spreadex haven't anything up yet. Charlie Henry is a possibility at 7 to buy but that depends on where he is deployed by King.

[Shipsupstreets]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Aug 11 If I've read the Macc team news correctly, Charlie Henry is playing behind Barnes-Homer as an attacking midfielder. If that is the case he's decent at 16s to be first goalscorer on Spreadex's fixed odds offering.

[Darran]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Aug 11 Not watching the game live tonight as would rather watch the Olympics whilst they are still on but am recording so will watch it at somepoint next week. Not a game I wanted to have a bet on anyway as they strike me as two mid-table sides and any of the results could well happen. Going to start pretty quietly this week and havent had chance to write a proper preview. I will chance three biggish price aways on the opening day of the season. First of is Hyde at 11/4 to beat Braintree. Got a feeling Braintree will suffer from 2nd season syndrome and although they might not do as badly as Bath did, they dont look as strong to me as last season. Hyde dont look as badly off as I feard they would be at the end of last season and although the rookie manager is a concern if they can play like they did last season they could well beat Braintree. Secondly I think Nuneaton will struggle this year and Liam Daish looks like he has done another great job of getting a decent side together. Slight concern they might play for a draw but at 9/4 I am happy to take the risk as I think the BSP experience could count here. Finnally a bit of a shot in the dark but I will chance Woking at 11/2 at Wrexham. Woking look a solid mid-table side for me and I still have doubts about Wrexham being able to reach the play-offs. With that being the case I think Woking are a over-priced here and might cause a minor first day upset.

[maliniok]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Aug 11

Following from discussions in the antepost thread today (thanks Shipps' date=' Kevshat and Addpea) I am wondering whether there is value to be had in Luton to beat Gateshead to nil. Luton have a solid defense and a great goalkeeper in Tyler and apparently they have improved under Buckle in terms of organisation. What is very important, though, is that they signed Gateshead's top goalscorer Jon Shaw, leaving them with midfielder Cummins (12 goals last season), and strikers Hatch (4 goals since he joined from Darlo in January) and new signing from Hartlepools, James Brown. Brown scored just one goal last season and was released by his club so he is a bit of an enigma at this level. Luton to win to nil currently at 2.6 (8/5 for you Brits;) ) with 365 so I will probably wait to see if other firms put a more tempting price on this market.[/quote']Taken. 2.75 (7/4) with Blue Sq seems generous enough for Hatters to win with a clean sheet.

[allthethings]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Aug 11 In keeping with my season plan, I will play on the draw @ Barrow, Wrexham, Manfield and Luton, though if the odds run toward the favorites I might skip Wrexham and/or Luton (anything above 6.00 will give me pause). This division has thrown up tons of draws in the first couple of weeks in the games with the biggest favorites...last year Darlo managed to win 1-0 inn the opener against Braintree, but the next three biggest favorites, Mansfield, Wrexham and Barrow all drew. Going back to 2008-09, the first week big faves have gone 3-9-1. For three seasons now the biggest favorites have done extraordinarily well in Conference...only about 16% draws in the games with dogs of better than 6.00...compare that to Championship (25% draws), League One (23%) and League Two (21%).

[allthethings]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Aug 11

In keeping with my season plan' date=' I will play on the draw @ Barrow, Wrexham, Manfield and Luton, though if the odds run toward the favorites I might skip Wrexham and/or Luton (anything above 6.00 will give me pause). This division has thrown up tons of draws in the first couple of weeks in the games with the biggest favorites...last year Darlo managed to win 1-0 inn the opener against Braintree, but the next three biggest favorites, Mansfield, Wrexham and Barrow all drew. Going back to 2008-09, the first week big faves have gone 3-9-1. For three seasons now the biggest favorites have done extraordinarily well in Conference...only about 16% draws in the games with dogs of better than 6.00...compare that to Championship (25% draws), League One (23%) and League Two (21%).[/quote'] Good start, two draws for +3.6 units. Ended up playing them all...based on late odds movement I would have ended up not playing Wrexham (good move) and possibly Luton (bad move).

[Shipsupstreets]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Aug 11 No joy for me with Lincoln winning 1-0 for a 30pt makeup and a loss of 11 points on a sell of their mini-performance. Good calls by ATT on Barrow and Luton X, zbrochu on Telford +0.5 and by addpea on Ebbsfleet (and so close to a brilliant call on Hyde).

[Darran]

I thought ebbsfleet might win by the odd goal but certainly didn't think it would be the odd goal in 9. The Hyde result was very frustrating given not only the lateness of the goal but the fact a Hyde player got sent off in the tunnel at half time. Still it was a small profit to start the season off which I will take. Sent from my HTC Desire S using PL Forum

[Bobby Woodruff]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Aug 11 No bets made by me yesterday but took in a trip to New Lawn for the FGR v Cambridge Utd. Cambridge dominated for long periods playing neat passing football whereas FGR relied on long balls forward to the flanks. Cambridge's half time lead was deserved but they looked very reliant for goals on Tom Elliot who limped off during the second half. FGR look very strong defensively and better teams than Cambridge will struggle to play through them. Cambridge sat deeper in the second half allowing FGR to come on but they posed little real threat. FGR's penalty came as a resultof late subs running at speed directly at the Cambridge defence leading them to give away a stone wall pen despatched by Jan Kulkowski who injured his groin and and to hobble for the last couple of minutes as FGR had used all their subs. FGR looked less of a unit than Cambridge, they weren't nearly as fit and Magno Viera was subbed in the second half after making no impact. Att. c1100. FGR have a bit to do before they can hit their stride but look hard to beat. I was quietly impressed with Cambridge but they lack firepower on this performance.

[maliniok]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Aug 11 No luck for me either - typical Luton - they keep clean sheets when it doesn't matter and don't when it does.

[bartonbank]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Aug 11 To assist punting and, before they realise that the link is open without paying for it, the highlights of Wrexham-Woking are here

[maliniok]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Aug 11 Thanks Barton Bank - that's entertaining. Woking defence looked very weak - it looked like it could have been 5 or 6 for Wrexham - penalty for handball and missing an open goal from a yard.. By the way, does anybody know if the new BBc NonLeague Show on Radio 5 will be available via podcast at the same address as the old one? 5 am on Sunday is not my time to get up! :D

[Darran]

Yes and the podcast will still be for an hour. It's being recorded on a Saturday night. Sent from my HTC Desire S using PL Forum

[bartonbank]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Aug 11 Woking played some neat football and should make midtable. Ogelby got into some great positions and should have scored 3 and, as I put in my antepost view, iwas way overpriced with VC at 100/1 for top scorer. A big thanks to allthekings for the draw stat. As I usually do I did 10 trebles and a 5 fold for 10 pts as a bet and picked 4 draws and Ebbsfleet (my only single) Late goals usually seem to ruin a bet but 3 in 3 games helped me get all 5 up for a handsome profit

[bartonbank]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Aug 11 Can't find the NLS podcast at the moment, addpea