Antepost > 2012/13

[western skies]

Re: Antepost > 2012/13

So even at 7/1 I doubt I would touch Chelsea as I seriously don't think they will reach the top 4 this season - and when the pressure is on come October' date=' Di Matteo may find himself on the dole once again. that club is an accident waiting to happen mark my words.[/quote'] Given that Chelsea are currently a best-priced 1/3 to finish in the top 4, you must see the 1.41 currently available to lay them on Betfair as the bet of the season then?

[Jase82]

Re: Antepost > 2012/13

Lallana is a fantastic championship player but I have a feeling he will look a litte more average faced with premiership opponents. He could well prove me wrong but as a betting man I wouldn't back it with hard cold cash at the moment i'm afraid. This is why I say Lambert is more important, as without his goals and penalty strike rate I don't see Southampton scoring nearly as often. Having said that though they are a very astute footballing side and could well spring the surprise of the promoted teams; though if I am honest I do think of the 3 teams, Reading have by far the best squad and manager and the best chances of climbing the league.

I see it completely different to you..... if a player like Lambert doesn't get the service then no way will he get the goals. If you cut off supply he won't be as effective, which for me makes a midfielder such as Lallana much more important because Southamptyon have quite a few players that are what I would call goal poachers, capable of having that killer instinct. It's the same as dealing with a fire. Cut off the oxygen, you kill the flame.

[Aidymac]

Re: Antepost > 2012/13 So Brooke, you think Arsenal will finish 2nd, and Chelsea will finish 5th or worse??? Arsenal lose Van Persie, and Chelsea just won the champions league, the FA Cup, and seem to have found a good stable manager that can get a tune out of his players. The only threat to Man City this year are United and Chelsea, if you are thinking about backing anyone else, i suggest you donate the money to CONCERN instead.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Antepost > 2012/13 United and City top 2 for me. Dont see the hype with Chelsea yet though, so they won the CL and cup, they bombed in the league whether it was AVB or Di Matteo in charge, something that is forgotten, They underwhelmed in the league with Di Matteo there too and I dont think he's the man to push chelsea on. They still look hugely reliant on the old guard, Torres is now the main man with Drogba gone and that should be concerning, Hazard in looks good but we'll see how he adapts to England. They obviously could spunk more money up the wall before the season starts and that might change my view, but right now I dont see Chelsea as a valid threat for the league. 3rd at best IMO. Arsenal will be competing for CL places again, no more than that.

[western skies]

Re: Antepost > 2012/13

I rarely ever lay bets to be honest - but I am going to be punting on an unusual looking top4 / top6 for this season and Chelsea are not in my top4 so I might be tempted... though not at 1.41 that is far too expensive! :) http://www.common-sensei.com/8/post/2012/07/premier-league-all-time-league.html My top4 predictions are in there, I won't post them because for sure it will agitate more arguing lol but I think my reasoning pretty much speaks for itself. That said I do think Antepost is extremely hard to get right purely because it's such a long season and so many things happen that are impossible to predict. On face value though I am happy with the ones I have gone with. I take it you are going for Chelsea top 4 finish then at 1/3? I don't think that reflects their current downtrend to be fair, it's maybe something to do with their cup form last season and the sheer volume of Chelsea fans sticking money on them to win the title (misplaced money if you ask me).

Hang on a sec, you've outlined a pretty detailed case as to why you think Chelsea are somewhere around a 7/1 shot to finish in the top 4, but you think 1.41 (2/5) is far too expensive to lay them? How does that work - surely it's an absolutely massive value bet? I'm not having a go, I'm just genuinely struggling to understand your betting philosophy here. :unsure To answer your question, I'm a Chelsea fan, but I certainly won't be backing us at 1/3 to finish in the top 4. I agree with the consensus view on here that there are far too many questions surrounding our league form, our squad, and RDM. Robbie did a brilliant job in an emergency last season, but the full time post he has now is a very different role and it remains to be seen whether he can keep some of our more difficult characters on side whilst building a squad for the future. The signings look good so far and we are moving towards a much younger core of players (Anelka, Alex, Kalou, Bosingwa, and Drogs have all left since Jan), but there are issues that need to be resolved before we can realistically assess how good this current squad can be. For me, we're definitely not a 1/3 shot for a top 4 finish. But equally, we're certainly better than 7/1! ;)

[Aidymac]

Re: Antepost > 2012/13 I gave my own opinion already Brooke. League will be fought out between United and City again, Chelsea will be 3rd, then a battle for 4th between Arsenal and an improved Liverpool under Rogers. Arsenal did crap with Van Persie, they get Podolski who was probably one of the worst players of the Euro's. If Arsenal didn't have RVP last season, it would have been a catastrophe, so i don't see why it won't be a catastrophe this season without him, as Arsenal are lacking up front bigtime. At least in Chelsea's case, they have bought Hazard, Torres has found his old spark, they have just won 2 trophies, and finished 6th in the league. *P.S. Chelsea finished 6th in the league, not 8th! If you want to put up a good argument, get the fact's correct.* You also say without Drogba that Mata is their only goalscoring threat??????? Torres?????

[western skies]

Re: Antepost > 2012/13

I say 2/5 is a right rip off considering they are also doing Chelsea to win the league at 5/1... The reason I think 1.41 is too expensive to lay Chelsea getting into the top4 is that it is a possibility, just not likely in my view. And that isn't a good enough risk/reward ratio for me to bother betting on it. Considering Chelsea are 5/1 to win the league, I think the odds on them finishing outside the top 4 should reflect this, but the fact that they don't mean for me it's too expensive.

I'm a bit confused here. Are you saying you think Chelsea should be shorter than 2/5 to finish in the top 4, given that they're 5/1 to win the league? Remember, with laying, you're acting as the bookmaker, so you're accepting a bet that Chelsea will finish in the top 4. So, if you lay them at 1.41 for say £100, then your risk is £41 (if they make top 4) against a potential profit of £100 minus commission (if they don't). I don't want to labour the point here, I'm just at a loss to understand why you don't see the lay at 2/5 as value when you believe the true odds are nearer 7/1. PS, Aidy - chill out a bit mate. No need to go in all guns blazing. :ok

[Aidymac]

Re: Antepost > 2012/13 Podolski better than Torres. PMSL! :rollin

[hoddspur]

Re: Antepost > 2012/13 Brooke, i really don't understand why you think Arsenal will be in with a shout of the title or even in the title race for that matter. This is how far Arsenal were off the winners in previous seasons since they last won the league in 2003/04 and their final position at the end of the season. 2011/12 - 19 points - 3rd 2010/11 - 12 points - 4th 2009/10 - 11 points - 3rd 2008/09 - 18 points - 4th 2007/08 - 4 points - 3rd 2006/07 - 21 points - 4th 2005/06 - 24 points - 4th 2004/05 - 12 points - 2nd Surely this shows that they are not on the up and are in fact in decline as they have got further away from winning the title in the last 3 seasons and since you won the league in 2003/04 the only time you were really in the title race was in 2007/08 and you still finished 3rd. Whilst Arsenal improved their position last year, they have finished 3rd, 4th, 3rd, 4th, 3rd in the last 5 seasons so their position has been fluctuating and add to that the probable loss of Arsenal's most important player then they may even struggle to finish in the top 4. Not criticising you mate as i know you put a lot of effort into your research and it's really helpful but just adding my two cents :)

[western skies]

Re: Antepost > 2012/13

Ohh I see! yeah sorry I just thought laying a bet was the same as normal betting. So in that case if I was laying bets I would consider that pretty good actually. This is why I have always avoided the things :) haven't a clue!! Lol will have to have a look into that... Thanks for the explanation though that is actually damn good in reverse. I'll have to see if Bet365 has an option for laying as I have never come across it but it must be there somewheres. Aidy - no need to get cross buddy it's just opinions flapping in the proverbial wind. Either one is worth as much as the other, and in the end both mean nothing until the end of the season and it hasn't even started yet

No worries mate - we got there in the end. :ok You won't find an option for laying on Bet365, you can only really lay bets on the exchanges. You might find a "Chelsea to finish in the top 4 - No" market or somesuch, but I doubt the odds would be as good.

[Aidymac]

Re: Antepost > 2012/13 I know Chelsea fared badly in the league Brooke, but how can you say Chelsea are in decline after they won 2 trophies last year, the Champions League and the FA Cup. Also to say United are in decline is probably fair, but to say Arsenal are on the incline is ridiculous in my honest opinion. They were miles behind City + United last year, Podolski is going to be a complete and utter flop just like Chamakh and Bendtner, i don't think you realise yet how much Van Persie being out of the team is going to hurt the club.

[Aidymac]

Re: Antepost > 2012/13 Yip, i agree with a lot of that Brooke. But i still stand by the fact United and City are still light-years ahead of Arsenal, which means i think Arsenal have no chance whatsoever of coming 1st or 2nd. You also never took into consideration that Chelsea have been a completely different team since Di Matteo took over, and also never took into account that Torres has only re-captured his form over the last month or two of last season, he had a horrific spell, but he is back full of confidence, and i am confident Torres will bang in a lot of goals this season, as much as i dread it.

[Jase82]

Re: Antepost > 2012/13

Most people think it's a 2 way Mancunian race for the first 2 spots but I just think United are weaker than they look and have been for a while. They can't possibly keep picking up results against the tide of games or just because teams have a fear factor of them. Sooner or later they are going to start picking up losses; the 6-1 thrashing they got from the same Man City side Arsenal beat 1-0 proves this.

That's quite an assumption to make as both those results were at different times of the season, and City were beaten 1-0 when they were going through their bad patch that should have landed United the title, and would have done if it weren't for two minutes in the game against Q.P.R.

[Aidymac]

Re: Antepost > 2012/13

I just don't see how you can say he has hit form over the last month or two - what are you basing that on? I discount the Euros because he hardly got a game and when he was brought on it was either at the end of the game at a winning position against a knackered opponent, or just against a weak team. Most people think it's a 2 way Mancunian race for the first 2 spots but I just think United are weaker than they look and have been for a while. They can't possibly keep picking up results against the tide of games or just because teams have a fear factor of them. Sooner or later they are going to start picking up losses; the 6-1 thrashing they got from the same Man City side Arsenal beat 1-0 proves this. So you are with the crowd on this one - they also agree it's Manchester blue or red but I don't mind being the lone voice saying actually I think Arsenal are ahead of United this season...

Didn't United beat Arsenal 8-2??? And United had a good few injuries. What is your point? Didn't United win at the Emirates also?

[Aidymac]

Re: Antepost > 2012/13 You say United are in decline. Would you say having 10-14 injuries all season had anything to do with that? Having to play with a different inexperienced back-line for most of the season? Having Valencia out for a lot of the season, and having the captain Vidic out for most of the season? Also having a young goalkeeper who was getting used to his surroundings. Last year was a big transition for United, and to actually come 1 minute from winning the title was an absolutely outstanding achievement given the circumstances, and you will never see a worse United team than that for the next 10 years anyways i would imagine. Onto Torres. He was not prolific with goals, but for the last 2 months of the season, everybody saw that his performances had improved dramatically, he was getting a good few assists, scored a few, seemed confident, ran his socks off, began to play with a bit of desire, and in my eyes anyone who thinks Lucas Podolski is a better player than Fernando Torres doesn't have a clue. If you want to get statistical, Grant Holt scored more goals than Torres last year, way more, does that make him a better player? Chelsea are not my team by the way.

[Aidymac]

Re: Antepost > 2012/13 We will let the football do the talking Brooke! But Chelsea will finish ahead of Arsenal in my opinion. Giroud is not 1/10th the player Van Persie is, and that alone will be the downfall for Arsenal. Pass, Pass, Pass, Pass, but can't score.

[Mirage]

Re: Antepost > 2012/13 I have my doubts about whether, in all competitions, Di Matteo can produce the same level of success he had in the cups last year when he takes on the full-time role this season. Chelsea couldn't have been in a better position for someone to come in and lift them up again as they were when Di Matteo took temporary charge last season - almost out of the Champions League, struggling for a top 4 position and reliant on cup competitions for any kind of joy. The whole place needed lifting and he did it. This coming season is a totally different situation. The expectation has increased and he will have a big task getting the results the fans desire nevermind keeping his trigger-happy gaffer on side should they lose touch with the top 2 early on. For me, they lack a good right-back as I think Ivanovic is better in the centre so isn't a long-term solution there. Cole is still the best left-back in the world for me and the pairing of Terry and Cahill can be very good despite the former getting on a bit now. Luiz showed good signs towards the end of last term, too. I think Hazard will do well but it is obviously no guarantee and Mata should carry on their good form. However, in the centre I don't think Essien, Lampard (become a bit too inconsistent for me), Meireles or Mikel are strong enough to allow them to challenge for the league. I'd have Lampard as a starter but think they need some new, proven blood in there. Ramires could well end up in that position but I don't think he is quite ready to be relied upon in there yet. Up front I think Torres would have a good season if given a good run of 10 games at the start to prove he can become their main man. The squad as a whole lacks depth to cover for the likes of Cole, Mata, Hazard, Lampard and Torres. I think the likes of Bertrand, Essien (could re-discover form but I doubt it), Romeu, Sturridge and Mikel are ok but not good enough to get the best out of the players ahead of them by pushing for starting places or impressing when giving a chance. So, in short, I think Di Matteo still has big question marks over him, they need a right-back, a complete revamp in centre midfield and a few good solid signings who will play their part throughout the season. Top 4, yes, but probably about 10 points off the top 2.....or more. If Abramovich spends this could all change, but they need 5 or 6 very good signings to challenge for the title in my opinion.

[Mirage]

Re: Antepost > 2012/13 People mention Maicon as the answer for their right-back issues but i'm not so sure. He is slightly suspect when retreating and I think that would be exploited by teams in the Premier League more than those in Serie A. A pairing from Ivanovic, Luiz, Cahill and Terry will no doubt be a good one but I don't think quite good enough (yet) to have to deal with a right-back who is on the half-way line more often than defending when he should be.

[Aidymac]

Re: Antepost > 2012/13 Nice write-up Mirage, very good. What is your opinion on how you think Arsenal will fare this season?

[Mirage]

Re: Antepost > 2012/13

Nice write-up Mirage, very good. What is your opinion on how you think Arsenal will fare this season?

Cheers, mate. I seem to view Arsenal the same every pre-season. They need a few top quality signings and I don't think either Podolski or Giroud are what they need. I was impressed with Koscielny last season and I think if they can get him and Vermaelen to play enough gammes together they will have a solid partnership assisted by a couple of good full-backs in Sagna and Gibbs. Wilshere apart, their midfield is very weak.....too weak to compete with United and City anyway. Wilshere needs to be on the pitch as soon as possible but that doesn't seem as though it will be straightforward and I don't see how he and Ramsey/Arteta/Chamberlain can play together along with Song. I don't think Arteta is good enough for this team to challenge the top 2 and, although I think he can be the real deal in a couple of years, Song isn't strong enough to support 2 midfielders who would rather go forward. Walcott needs to prove he is consistent enough to merit that role on the right whilst Chamberlain, if used on the left, can't be expected to be consistent so therefore cannot be relied upon too often to get them out of trouble. Podolski could be used on the left but I really expect him to be a miss rather than a hit. He doesn't effect games often enough for me when out wide and if used through the centre hasn't got enough about him to replace anywhere near what RVP brought to the side. I'm still scratching my head about why Giroud was brought in as, from what I have seen of him, he looks a bit one-dimensional. A slightly better version of Chamakh? If they can keep a back 4 of Sagna, Gibbs, Koscielny and Vermaelen I think it could be solid for them but it needs to be because those in front of them are looking too weak to be consistently good enough when asked to grind out wins. They need a big game striker to replace RVP and good squad players because the likes of Santos, Mertesacker, Gervinho, Squillaci and Jenkinson are not good enough. Sadly though, I don't think Wenger will be demanding big money for the big signings they need.

[Mirage]

Re: Antepost > 2012/13 At the moment they will be battling to get in the top 4 I think and may be in real danger if Spurs improve and Wenger is too stubborn to see what the club really needs to do.

[ONEDUNME]

Re: Antepost > 2012/13

At the moment they will be battling to get in the top 4 I think and may be in real danger if Spurs improve and Wenger is too stubborn to see what the club really needs to do.

What do you mean IF? He's been too thick to cotton on in the last five seasons. I'd put that down as a WHEN, not an IF

[Mirage]

Re: Antepost > 2012/13 Yes, you're right. I said as much in the post directly above the post you are quoting. I honestly do not see how the board think he can make them in to a top 2 side never mind title winners. Great coach but he is spending too long trying to construct a side like those he has had in the past and is being pushed back a couple of steps each year by losing top players.

[Mirage]

Re: Antepost > 2012/13 If Giroud does indeed score 15 goals there is still 16 goals there (to just match RVP last season) that need to come from somewhere else and then the additional amount that need to be scored to ensure they can battle with United and City for a space in the top 2. Where will those come from? Van Persie scored 31 and virtually single-handedly got them in to the top 4 so they not only need to replace his goals but add even more if they want to progress. At the moment, I can't see Giround, Walcott and Podolski totalling 30 between them because there are 2 there who are unproven and need time to settle and another who is Mr. Inconsistent.

[Aidymac]

Re: Antepost > 2012/13 Brooke. Giroud played with Grenoble, Istres, Tours and Montpellier. This is Arsenal in the Premier League, you cannot judge a player who scored a good few goals in the French League and say he can come to England to a way tougher league and do the same. Many players have come and failed, Robinho, Forlan etc, so Giroud has an awful lot to prove. Van Persie did single-handedly improve Arsenal's position last year, he was brilliant. And a lot of the goals he created for himself too. Going by what you are saying, Ronaldo and Messi could easily be replaced at Madrid and Barcelona, which is not true, they are priceless to the team. Also, Mirage is entitled to his opinion, i am entitled to mine, we let you have yours, so just because we don't agree with what you are saying does not give you the right to slam our opinion, stop behaving like a "know-it-all".

[Aidymac]

Re: Antepost > 2012/13 Brooke, i had a look at your website.. AND LET ME TELL YOU................................................. I am quite impressed actually! :lol Don't mean to be argumentative, we just have different opinions, will try to work with you better over the coming season.

[Aidymac]

Re: Antepost > 2012/13

Thanks for the peace of mind. I'm used to people telling me they think my opinions are duff' date=' that's half the fun - You can do that all day long and I won't bat an eyelid. But my right eye starts to twitch slightly when people try to misrepresent the facts of history. I think it must have OCD or something lol[/quote'] You opinions are duff! You are just getting lucky at the moment! :p Joke!!!!!!!!! I don't agree with your opinions, but if your making money from your betting, nobody can argue with that.

[Sue]

Re: Antepost > 2012/13 Is every second post in this thread Brooke's ?

[Atko]

Re: Antepost > 2012/13 Right chaps. This bloke, Olivier Giroud. I've watched him more than all of you lot put together. I watched him when he was a kid at Grenoble, when he was banging them in for Tours and for Montpellier, so hear me out on this one. There's no doubt he's a good player. He was for Montpellier what Van Persie has been for Arsenal. He was their talisman. Some would argue he was a one-season wonder but for two years now, he's scored regularly for MHSC. He has done everything that has been asked of him and more. Going to the Emirates is a massive challenge for him though. Giroud has never played in the Champions League and I think he only played one tie for MHSC in the Europa League, which they lost. He is unproven at that level. The Premiership is also a much higher level than Ligue 1. The chasm is not as big as some would have you believe, but he'll need to improve yet again, as he has done when taking the step up to Ligue 1 from Ligue 2. Teams are more defensive than most Premiership sides in France so he'll be used to playing against sides that line up conservatively, as many do against Arsenal. He also played at the tip of a 4-2-3-1 formation at Montpellier, so he's au fait with the system Arsenal use. Ability-wise, I think he's got what it takes to be a success in England. He's strong, good in the air, positionally sound and surprisingly cool with the ball on the deck. He scores a wide variety of goals and is very handy when defending set pieces. He can also work the channels. He's not quick, but he's athletic. The raw materials are there. What I doubt about him the most - and this is a point that can be attributed to many in the EPL - is whether he has the mentality to play for a big club such as Arsenal. Montpellier, despite winning L1, are small-fry. There was never any real pressure on him until the end of the season, and that's where his goals dried up a little. John Utaka (remember him, Jase?) got MHSC over the line, as Giroud started to misfire and Younes Belhanda was suspended. There was a key match against Evian, when they were awarded a last minute penalty to win the match and basically secure the title, but he, the normal penalty taker, chickened out and Sol Camara missed it. His team-mates chastised him for it. For me, it was a sign he didn't have the bottle for the big moment. What am I trying to say? Ability, no question. Mentality, and potential to fit into a massive club and perform to the highest level, I'm not so sure. He's got more chance than Marouane Chamakh, who to me is a target man and little else. But to bet on how he does would be a punt in the dark. If he's burdened with the task of filling Robin Van Persie's shoes, then I fear for him somewhat. In conclusion: keep your money in your pocket and watch how he does. Bonne nuit :ok

[Mirage]

Re: Antepost > 2012/13

No he didn't singled-handedly do anything, that's just total fabrication. QUOTE] If RVP wasn't there and fully fit last season Arenal would have finished outside of the top 4. He scored some goals that the likes of Chamakh, Gervinho, Walcott etc. could only dream of banging away week in week out. He lifted the team on his own when they looked down and out on occasions. Arsenal never replaced Cesc and that had a big effect on their play but everyone knew Van Persie had it in him to be top goalscorer, it was just a question of whether he could stay injury-free and not crumble under the enormous pressure. Now, who in this current squad can I say has the ability to step up and shoulder the responsibility? Who will produce enough going forward to minimise the effect of losing RVP? I honestly can't see anyone. Gervinho is awful (my opinion of course), Walcott doesn't have enough big games, Podolski is unproven, Giroud is unproven and then Wilshere/Ramsey/Chamberlain are all still learning and/or coming back from injury. If Spurs sign a top class striker and replace Modric (should he leave) they would jump above Arsenal in the race for top 4 in my opinion. To say Arsenal are ready to challenge the top 2 is nonsense at the moment. Spurs will get replacements because they have got the cheque book out before. I can't see Arsenal signing the big names they need. Of course, there are a few weeks to go yet but i'd want at least 20's on this current squad lifting the title before even considering whether it is value or not.