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help with building a system


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first of all, i want to let you know that my english is not very well, but i hope i can outline my opinions well enough and that you can understand my problems. i am very new in sportsbetting and searching for different ways to get some new information. i looked around in different forums and tried out various strategies with no success. so i started to look for my own ideas. i want to discuss with you my model of betting. i am very thankful if you can help or give some advice. so let's come to the main topic. i was looking for some tipsters around and searched different websites for help. i found this site and thought about a different way of using their stats for myself. http://tennisprediction.com/ what i do: i take two players A and B and go to oddsportal.com and take the average odds for each player to win this match. after that i compare the odds give with the winning% predicted by a tipster. i recalculate the winning% based on the average odds. for example: malisse vs muller average odds: 1,64 vs 2,21 recalculated winning percentage: 60,97% vs 45,24% (its no problem for me that this does not sum up to 100%) the predicted winning percentage 58,21% vs 41,79% now i sum the difference between the prediction from the predictors with the ones from the bookies. here malisse: 58,21% - 60,97% = -2,75% muller: 41,79% - 45,24% = -3,45% the absolute difference: 6,2% what do i do now with this information: if the total difference is below 10% than i assume that the predictor and the bookie think the same way about this match. if the total difference is above 15% than i assume that the predictor is BETTER and i use their prediction in favor of their better% now here comes the tricky part: i dont use this information for the money line market. i use it instead for the handicap betting in games. for our example: i thin malisse is favored by both because the variation is below 10%. so i take malisse to win by the handicap. in our case it would be malisse -2@1,85. i tried this strategy since the french open on paper and i reached some fabulous results. i took 189 picks with level stakes and have a profit of 23,6 units. average winning odds: 1,91 1 unit per bet. 111 won and 78 lost bets SR: 58,73% Yield: 12,4% now what i want to know from you: can this be random or a fluke? have you any other good prediction sites where i can test this model. what is the number of games you think i need to test? thank you for your help in advance.

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Re: help with building a system

Look at doing a chi-sq test or using the Archie score to work out whether it is a fluke or random.
Hy. How can you do that? What statistics do you input to actually get a response to this? If you could give an example I would really appreciate. Thx.
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Re: help with building a system i need help on deciding when you can consider the given odds as one sided. for example: Player 1 vs Player B x,xx - y,yy when is the difference between these odds an indication for a one sided heavy favorite and what kind of categories you can choose form. my own opinion: absolute difference between 0,25 and 0 both players are even 0,25 - 0,5 light favorite 0,5 - 1 favorite 1-3 strong favorite 3 and very strong favorite

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Re: help with building a system

Hy. How can you do that? What statistics do you input to actually get a response to this? If you could give an example I would really appreciate. Thx.
Google "archie score" there are documents out there that describes the metod in detail.
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