Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps

[nickf88]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Good luck with your bets today Rupert. Be interested to read your selections for Ascot next week, especially if there are a few 1mile + handicaps. It'll be the first Royal Ascot meeting for me as a punter so am looking forward to it.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps

Good luck with your bets today Rupert. Be interested to read your selections for Ascot next week' date=' especially if there are a few 1mile + handicaps. It'll be the first Royal Ascot meeting for me as a punter so am looking forward to it.[/quote'] It's a great meeting but the handicaps are so fiercely competitive it will be tough to find those winners! Rewarding if you get 'em though. Not sure how to play it yet with regards to having more than one in the races such as the Hunt Cup. I often like to do this in the big-field straight races so you have an option on both sides of the track. Haven't decided yet. A spectacle to enjoy and if you haven't lost over the week you've done very well I reckon. As for today, Beauchamp Castle looked tricky throughout really despite the headgear but stayed on well into 3rd at the line. Another place, but she was never going to win! More hope for the next two who have been well supported. Hoping for a nice winner!

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Spencer not at his best there. Was delivering him all over the shop up the straight and short of room late on. Unlikely to have made a difference but would have gone closer. Looks to still want further, or the same trip on easier ground. All on the BBOTD now, damn.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Kingscote went off much too quick. What a disappointment. Poor day despite the positive market signals.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 2.20 Musselburgh - 2pts win Lean On Pete @ 13/2 (Bet365) This horse didn't show a great deal in two good maidens last year for David Lanigan (both winners now rated 95) but has improved this year with his sights lowered since joining Ollie Pears and looks capable of landing this handicap today. He was a small eyecatcher on his debut this season and for his new yard at Catterick in a 7f maiden. Given he was expected to come on for it, and I don't think the very sharp nature of the track suited him, it was a fair effort for him to stay on into an 8 1/2l 5th. He didn't have the legs to go with the leaders for much of the contest but did keep on and the form has worked out fairly well. The winner went close off a mark of 80 next time out, the runner-up won its maiden subsequently and the 4th has won and finished 2nd on his two starts subsequently. My selection was only 1 1/4l behind that horse who won his handicap off 70 so all things considered, I think Lean On Pete's mark of 63 is very exploitable - and possibly ought to have won a race by now. He was done by a smart tactical ride at Wolverhampton next time out over 7f where the leader accelerated clear and both my selection and the eventual 2nd could only close all the way up the straight without reaching him. He shaped on this occasion as again needing further so the mile on offer today will help (as should the likely easy conditions). He was stepped up in trip to the extended 9f at Wolverhampton last time out and in hindsight Kieran O'Neill will probably regret his decision to kick on when he did. He tried to catch the other runners cold by drawing clear 3f out. He put some distance between himself and the field but in the end was run down and finished 2nd. He raced keenly over that trip and made his decisive move out wide so it wasn't a bad effort in all honesty. The step back down to a mile should be ideal on the basis of that run and the jockey booking of Graham Lee is one I like. He clearly can go okay on turf and it was softish at Catterick when he ran there so any rain shouldn't be too much of a problem. It's impossible to be totally confident with only limited evidence to date so I'm not going mad, but he'll definitely be winning a race sooner rather than later and I reckon it could be today over a trip that will suit and a good jockey on board.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 3.05 York - 4pts win Local Hero @ 6/1 (Bet365) Steve Gollings' high quality hurdler has returned to the flat with two excellent efforts this season and is a winner waiting to happen off his current mark of 89 - for all it has been rising without winning. He wasn't beaten far by the high-class Pekan Star on his 2nd start on the level back in 2010 in a race which didn't utilise his stamina sufficiently and then he easily scored in a 1m4f maiden at Catterick on soft ground. That outlined his stamina and it wasn't a bad race itself with an 80 or so rated horse filling the runners-up spot. He was sent for a profitable hurdling spell after that where he racked up a hat-trick before finding life a bit tough at the top level. He ran a decent race in the County Hurdle, though, this year, and followed that up with a good 2nd in the Scottish Champion Hurdle. He's clearly in good heart at present and ran a hugely promising race on his return to the flat at Newmarket two starts back. He stayed on very strongly in the closing stages over 1m4f there to finish 2nd behind a subsequent winner off a higher mark in a race which has a solid look about it. His 2nd to Grumeti at Ascot last time out wasn't a bad effort considering he didn't have the race run to suit. It was a small field and he had to take up the running himself midway through the contest. He wants a good stamina test and he didn't get it there really. He was outpaced into 3rd up the straight but rallied well in the closing stages to comfortably regain 2nd and was closing on the winner at the line without getting any closer than 1 1/2l. The winner was only beaten a short-head off 6lbs higher next time out and the 3rd was also 2nd next time. Therefore the form is decent and the stiffer test here will really suit Local Hero. The anticipated rain will be an added bonus given he loves a bit of cut and the step up to 1m6f will help. The way he's been seeing out his races over 1m4f at stiffer tracks than York suggest this will be a help rather than a hindrance and he's poised to strike now I reckon. This will be Lordofthehouse's stiffest task yet once again upped in the weights and is too short for me, whilst Qahriman didn't seem to get home over 1m6f on soft conditions last season so the expected rain will give that one issues I reckon. There are obviously other dangers but I find it hard to see my selection running poorly (sod's law) and he should go close.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 4.55 Sandown - 2pts win Attraction Ticket @ 15/2 (Bet365) Although this is a 0-75 handicap, I'm not particularly keen on any of the three runners who are rated above 70 and I look down the bottom of the weights for my selection here. David Simcock's handicap debutant gets into this off a low weight and that may well prove decisive in what look likely to be very testing conditions. Although two of his three starts to date haven't been very good, they've been in decent maidens both on debut and on his first run of this season, so he can be expected to do much better now entered into the handicap sphere. His run sandwiched inbetween those efforts was promising though at Kempton. He travelled well that day and was one of the last off the bridle in actual fact. He ran a bit green when asked for maximum effort, though, and could only stay on into 4th. It was a good effort, though, considering he's only relatively modest. The first two on that occasion are roughly 75-rated animals and the 3rd now 85-rated (although he put a lot more distance between himself and my selection next time out). On that, a mark of 60 shouldn't be beyond Attraction Ticket for a David Simcock yard in decent form. He definitely will get this 1m2f trip although he didn't get out of the rear over it at Newmarket on his return this season. He finished 11th but considering 5 out of the first 7 are now rated in the 80s it was always going to be a very stiff task to get involved on his first run of the season. This is 10 times more realistic and now he's got that run under his belt I think he can start to confirm the promise he showed at Kempton. The soft ground is obviously a mystery so can't be overly confident but considering I don't really fancy the top three, or the bottom three (excluding my selection), that only leaves two other runners and one of them is unlikely to take part given it ran yesterday. That makes Attraction Ticket a fair price to me and although there's a fair chance I'll prove to be spectacularly wrong, he's worth a bet in my eyes.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Lots of support for Lean On Pete to go off favourite and he runs a shocker. What a disappointing run. Not sure why. Possibly just prefers the AW. Haydock off so just one to run in this sphere.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Urghhh. Only 4th.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Losing the plot. Thought this one was Haydock not Sandown. Attraction Ticket here. 7/2 now!

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Wish he didn't run. Argh. Woeful couple of days.

[nickf88]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Sorry to see your bet on Espirit De Midas go so close but not get up for you mate. I don't know how you punters manage to stay so calm and keep on going despite losing streaks, I'm having quite possibly the worst few weeks I've ever had and just feel like giving it up! Everything I back turns to crap and everything I look at but reconsider goes in with ease. Fair play to you for keeping at it mate, wish I had your mental strength when it comes to this punting game! Think I might just stick to the BBOTD and leave it for a few weeks now until I feel ready to get back into it properly.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps

Bets: 32 Wins: 5 Placed: 10 Staked: 87pts Returned: 87pts

P/L: 0pts

Bank: 100pts

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps

Sorry to see your bet on Espirit De Midas go so close but not get up for you mate. I don't know how you punters manage to stay so calm and keep on going despite losing streaks' date=' I'm having quite possibly the worst few weeks I've ever had and just feel like giving it up! Everything I back turns to crap and everything I look at but reconsider goes in with ease. Fair play to you for keeping at it mate, wish I had your mental strength when it comes to this punting game![/quote'] I don't stay calm! I will shaking for a good couple of minutes after that York race! Absolutely gutted about that one. Would have been a great winner and a much-needed boost in the BBOTD competition. I never seem to get those big handicap field wins. Couldn't do much else 'cos I couldn't have had the winner.

[nickf88]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Nor me mate, how anyone would have picked the winner of that I'll never know, only really had soft ground going for it today but there were plenty of others in the field off lower marks than in previous races that should have handled today's conditions but seemed to bomb out quite easily.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps

Nor me mate' date=' how anyone would have picked the winner of that I'll never know, only really had soft ground going for it today but there were plenty of others in the field off lower marks than in previous races that should have handled today's conditions but seemed to bomb out quite easily.[/quote'] Must have been something to do with track position with 7l back to the 3rd. Back to the drawing board...

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 2.35 York - 2pts win Halfsin @ 8/1 (Bet365) Posted this before his run at Epsom recently:

3.55 Epsom - 1pt win Halfsin @ 10/1 (Hills) Quite a big price for Marco Botti's entry here who was relatively progressive last campaign. After getting off the mark at the fifth attempt (when fresh), he won two handicaps over this trip including a 1l victory over a subsequent winner off a higher mark with the pair clear. He is 10lbs higher now himself, but ran very well behind a subsequent listed winner off level weights next time before he didn't quite get home over 1m4f at Ascot in September when racing wide. He's proven he can go well fresh and the return to 1m2f is bang up his street. Soft ground shouldn't inconvenience and if returning in the same form, has a big chance today.

Was quite a promising effort on his first run back given the ground was very testing. Proved he was still in decent form when not disgraced having kicked on from the front before tiring in the conditions. Should have come on plenty for that run and he also sweated badly that day. Had a stiff task at the weights in a listed event last time out when again not humiliated and the return to a handicap will suit today. The ground is possibly not totally ideal but he has gone on soft before and I think he'll run his best race of the season here.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 2.05 York - 2pts win Lexington Bay @ 10/1 (Bet365) It's in these sort of races where I think you need a willing partner who will grind out a performance rather than a flashy type who might not be able to show their best under a relatively inexperienced pilot. Richard Fahey's Lexington Bay has been campaigned over further recently but I don't think that's too much of a concern given the testing ground conditions today. It will suit to race prominently which I imagine this one will and he has a nice draw in stall 3 to do just that. His stamina will see her plugging on and I reckon he might just be able to take this with conditions to suit. He's generally progressive and his effort at Kempton last time was excellent. He likes some give in the ground and there's a few of these who might struggle to get home I believe. That will be no problem for my selection and so long as he doesn't get outpaced he should be bang there at the finish. Miss J McLernon can make good use of him and he can definitely still win off this mark. A real stamina test will suit and given they often go off a bit quick in these races, if he gets a lead in those circumstances it will suit and I think he's going to run a very good race.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 2.20 Sandown - 2pts win Spirit Of The Law @ 6/1 (Bet365) Stamina looks an issue here for a few of the runners but that shouldn't be the case for Ed Dunlop's charge who has won over 1m2f in the past and relishes testing conditions. This is likely going to be a stiff task getting home so the proven stamina will stand Spirit Of The Law in good stead. Having had a good season last year, he's progressed again this term having initially needed the run at Wolverhampton. He stayed on well over 1m2f at Doncaster on heavy to get up late three starts back and was only beaten late on next time out off 1lb lower than today's mark. He probably just got there a bit early (wins have seen him hit the front later) and was headed late on. It probably would be less of a concern today given I'm not sure how many are going to finish well with concerns for them but either way a more patient ride may help. He pulled too hard over 1m4f last time out so that effort can be ignored and back at this trip will help. He looks a very solid option in a race which revolves around horses with questions to answer in my eyes and I think he'll go very well indeed.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 4.15 York - 3pts win Carragold @ 6/1 (Bet365) I managed to rule plenty of these out (as best you can) for one reason or another and I feel Mel Brittain's runner is a solid option who will be tough to beat even in this big field. Track, trip and ground will suit and I think there's a bit more to come still off his current mark. Although it appears high, the Brittain yard were out of form for quite a long time and his only really good runs in 2011 came when the stable were in hot form. They're doing better this season, though, and that has helped see the emergence of this horse. He has a lovely draw on the inside and the ground was too quick ideally last time out but he also faced a well-treated easy winner who won again since well and the 2nd also won next time so he did have excuses. The race wasn't run to suit either and a good test here will be ideal and looks fairly likely given the ground conditions. He's only 7lbs higher for an easy win two starts back in a race that wasn't too bad and he's capable of adding another win to his tally today.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps A 2nd, a not ideal ride and unsuitable ground so far today. Probably should have known with Halfsin. Lexington Bay was too far back, but started slowly so bit forced and the other was a good 2nd. Fingers crossed for Carragold. Urgh.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps And another place. Race not run to suit. Frustrating.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps

Bets: 36 Wins: 5 Placed: 12 Staked: 96pts Returned: 87pts

P/L: -9pts

Bank: 91pts

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 2.20 Salisbury - 4pts win Gosbeck @ 9/2 (Bet365) Posted this before his Epsom run:

2.50 Epsom - 2pts win Gosbeck @ 7/1 (Bet365) It is no great surprise to see Aiken popular for this race but I strongly suspect Henry Candy's runner is fairly well-handicapped and if getting the breaks today, he should run a cracker. The soft ground is a slight concern for this one over the trip but she deserves a change in fortune having been unfortunate the last twice. Dane O'Neill set her a huge amount to do last time but she finished like a train over 2f shorter and the time before that, she finished again with a real rattle having been hampered and dropped to last midway through the contest. On that evidence the 1m4f here should be okay, and her two average efforts last July can be forgiven somewhat with the yard operating at a mere 8% strike rate. They're in better form now, and the form of her 6 3/4l defeat at Haydock during that month looks strong with the winner now rated 20lbs superior and the runner-up 11lbs superior. Bombed out on soft over 1m6f at Sandown later on in the month but I can forgive that and hope things go more to plan today.

She ran fairly well all things considered on her seasonal return. The very soft ground was a concern raised by her trainer beforehand but she ran okay in it. She will improve for the run and the sounder surface today I'm sure. She just couldn't really get on terms on that occasion but the race was a decent one with Aiken following up twice since in pattern company and the likes of Communicator and Ithoughtitwasover also held. I think my selection will have ideal conditions today back at a track where she was an unlucky loser a few starts back. This is a weaker race and I reckon there isn't much scope from Quiz Mistress' current mark unlike my selection and Henry Candy's filly will take a bit of beating I reckon.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 2.00 Doncaster - 3pts win Favorite Girl @ 6/1 (Bet365) I don't like many of these and one of those left on my shortlist really interests me if getting a good ride from Jack Duern. He's a capable rider who has gone well on this filly before, including a victory at Southwell over 1m3f and I think she could be a better horse now her stamina is going to be brought out over this extended 1m6f trip. It is a 3f jump up from the longest distance she's raced over to date but she doesn't do anything quickly and her style suggests she'll be at home over these sort of trips. She finished really well over 1m2f at Chester last time out to accelerate clear entering the final furlong or so, but another one came flying over the top and she was beaten a head. The way she stayed on under testing conditions there bodes well for today and I think a more galloping track will play to her strengths more. She's by a middle-distance horse (sire of Black Panther) and out of an unraced daughter of Montjeu so there's plenty of stamina in her pedigree to suggest she'll get home here. She's been admirably consistent of late but she can wander under pressure when she hits the front and it possibly has cost her a couple of recent races. I hope she's ridden with more restraint today for an in-form yard, and delivered later to stop any misdemeanours, but that's only a relatively small point. She's fairly treated an unexposed on turf now I feel and she's going to run a cracker if she gets home, and I think she will.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 4.40 Doncaster - 2pts win Lockantanks @ 7/1 (VC) Michael Appleby's progressive all-weather horse will need a fair gallop to be shown at his best today but if he gets it then I think he's going to run a very big race, and hopefully get his first turf win under his belt. Although strictly speaking his turf mark looks high, the way he progressed on the all-weather since his previous tries on the grass gives me hope that he's just a better horse now and can be competitive off this significantly lower mark than on the synthetic surfaces. He won off 89 in the winter at Lingfield and although he's 11lbs higher than his last turf handicap run, he's 19lbs higher on the all-weather than he was at that time so if he has just improved in general he could still have some winning to do on this surface. He handles cut in the ground which will help today and he didn't run too badly on his recent return to the turf in a claimer recently. He had to give weight to horses he wouldn't have to in a handicap, and it was his first run for 3 months. He wasn't disgraced, though, and with that under his belt/back in a handicap I think we'll see more from him. Graham Lee is a good jockey booking and Michael Appleby is 1-6 at the track (hopefully he'll have 3 winners after today!)

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Beaten by a 10-race maiden. Hit the front plenty early enough. Gutted. Never used his whip either.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps FFS another one who should have won. Lee didn't go for the gap initially and then it slammed in his face. That's so bloody annoying. Best horse in the race. Urgh.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps

Bets: 39 Wins: 5 Placed: 14 Staked: 105pts Returned: 87pts P/L: -18pts (Bank: 82pts) Day that got away. Can't help but think I should be sat here with 2 winners. As it is - nil. 1 in 2 are making the frame which isn't too bad given the majority of the prices but not enough getting their heads in front. Not gonna get any easier this week. A big handicap winner at Royal Ascot wouldn't go amiss...

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 4.15 Carlisle - 4pts win Dorry K @ 4/1 (Bet365) I am very keen on David Barron's runner here who has conditions to suit and sufficient form in the book to suggest she's going to take a little bit of beating here. She showed some form in maidens and handicaps over shorter trips last season but it's clear that she'd want more of a stamina test both on those efforts and the fact there is plenty of stamina on her dam's side of her pedigree. She won over 1m2f on her return at Nottingham off just 3lbs lower than today's mark - getting there late - and even further than that seems ideal. She ran a shocker at Beverley last time out in May but the run came at a time where David Barron's horses were bang out of nick and that can be safely put to one side in my eyes. Proved it was just a blip with a very solid run last time out at Newcastle over 12f. She showed her stamina on that occasion as she was initially outpaced up the straight and dropped to 2nd last. However, she rallied well to finish 2nd in the end behind an easy winner who has won well since off a higher mark (and could well win again). She won't meet anything that good/progressive today I don't think and the cut in the ground, the trip and the stiffish finish here will see her to her best. The yard are banging in the winners again and I think they're going to have another one here.