Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Yeah did it nicely. Rule 4 on that takes her down to around 5/1 but I'll take it! War Poet hated Chester. One to keep on the right side of back at a Doncaster or a York etc.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Good effort from Western Pearl to be 6th at 33s. Shame I went against High Jinx because I really fancied him last time but he was taken out on quick ground. Just thought he might want 1m6f. Pah. Got a decent run for my money.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps +8pts now overall with Flying Power a NR.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 5.40 Newmarket - 1pt win Danvilla @ 16/1 (VC) If Paul Webber's charge has got over the fact she was pulled-up having lost her action on his return at Salisbury then she's overpriced as she returns to the venue where she's recorded a win and a fair 5th when sticking to arguably the worse part of the track. She was one of two who stayed where they were (the other well beaten) so it probably wasn't a bad effort in the circumstances. She chased home the very well-handicapped Keys at Newbury, beating a horse now rated substantially higher in 3rd and then she won well at the July course next time out. She's only 4lbs higher for that win and this test on this ground will suit.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Aah balls. 2nd. The big priced ones running well on the whole but not quite getting there!

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Bets: 20 Wins: 3 Placed: 6 Staked: 48pts Returned: 55pts P/L: +7pts Bank: 107pts

[cpo]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps

Good effort from Western Pearl to be 6th at 33s. Shame I went against High Jinx because I really fancied him last time but he was taken out on quick ground. Just thought he might want 1m6f. Pah. Got a decent run for my money.

I talked myself out of High Jinx as well! Good 2 days though mate :cow

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Wasn't much of a price in the end. Will relish further still. Cheers pal.

[BillyHills]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Thats better BTR, well done mate:clap

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 5.05 Salisbury - 2pts win Shesha Bear @ 10/1 (SJ) I think Jonathan Portman's runner is a bit overpriced here having racked up a hat-trick at Epsom last year and has had excuses on her two efforts so far this campaign. She struggled on very soft ground back at Epsom on his seasonal return, but many horses were well beaten on that surface first time out, yet ran much better since. She was stepped up to 2 miles at Goodwood last time and travelled well for much of the contest before fading inside the final 2f. She simply shaped as a non-stayer and the return to her optimum 1m4f here will help her see the race out. She handles soft ground well and her mark is slipping back down now (5lbs lower than 2 starts ago). That's generous considering she hasn't had her ideal circumstances this season yet, and although this being at Epsom would have increased her chances, she has won elsewhere, and I'm hoping the track won't undo her here. Korngold is too short having only run average races since his last win and remains 6lbs higher than that success, I'm not totally sure Persian Herald will get home well enough on the ground, Achalas hasn't shown enough this season to me to be a solid option. King's Troop is the one I reckon could run well if improving on its first run of the season but although he has a swing with my selection on Epsom form from September, Shesha Bear was comfortably in command that day.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 8.00 Brighton - 4pts win Heading To First @ 3/1 (Bet365) You know a race is bad when the 7/4 favourite has a strike rate of 1-82 and for that reason he's being taken on in a flash. Far too short and I think with the decimated field, Paddy Butler's runner should be the favourite here despite not having the best of strike rates himself. He has at least proved himself capable of running well here and soft ground doesn't inconvenience either. He was 5th of 13 here in April in a better race than this which isn't a bad effort and then went down by a mere 1l over today's c&d on soft ground next time out. Although that wasn't a great race by any means, he ran well and that effort bodes well today because I think the small field will suit. I think he can kick on at a point and be tough to pass off what's likely to be a slow pace. I think Laconicos' chances will be improved by a fast gallop which doesn't look probable today. I think my selection can get a lead, or take it up himself, and kick on. He wasn't beaten too far in a seller here last time out where he had a very tough ask at the weights so conditions definitely suit him. Ryedale Lass will be happier in handicaps but has shown too little so far for me, I'm not sure Inquisitress will get home over this far on soft ground - 10f seems the very maximum she wants but conditions will make it more of a test. Devon Diva's likely to need this after a long absence. The race falls apart and I think 3/1 is a fair shout for a horse who has some relatively solid form under these conditions. I think he'll be tough to beat.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 8.30 Brighton - 2pts win Moment In Time @ 6/1 (Bet365) This one isn't obviously well-handicapped but 6/1 isn't a bad price for a horse who drops into much weaker company than last time out. Although her debut win doesn't look anything special at Lingfield two starts back, she won it without too much fuss by 1l (jockey never too serious) and shaped as if she'd get further. Pedigree suggests this step up to 1m2f will suit but the ground is a concern. There is little evidence to go off but was never involved when beaten 7l at Windsor last time in similar conditions. However, that was a decent heat, a 0-90 handicap and she wasn't disgraced. She drops substantially into a 0-70 here - a much weaker race - and the step up in trip will help. Last year she was only beaten 4 1/2l by the Oaks 7th Kailani and had 82, 75 and 88 rated horses the others in front that day so it wasn't a bad effort at all. She shaped as if further would suit there, also. She runs off 70 to day and I'm just hoping she doesn't struggle on the ground. All of those who have come out of the Windsor race and run since have all gone well so the form looks decent and she isn't facing anything as good as those this evening. The favourite is too short for me having won a very weak race last time, with a dodgy character in 2nd (run poorly since) so isn't worth getting involved in at the price. I'll let that one win at the price but still have a standard win bet on a horse who is much better value.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps

5.05 Salisbury - 2pts win Shesha Bear @ 10/1 (SJ) I think Jonathan Portman's runner is a bit overpriced here having racked up a hat-trick at Epsom last year and has had excuses on her two efforts so far this campaign. She struggled on very soft ground back at Epsom on his seasonal return, but many horses were well beaten on that surface first time out, yet ran much better since. She was stepped up to 2 miles at Goodwood last time and travelled well for much of the contest before fading inside the final 2f. She simply shaped as a non-stayer and the return to her optimum 1m4f here will help her see the race out. She handles soft ground well and her mark is slipping back down now (5lbs lower than 2 starts ago). That's generous considering she hasn't had her ideal circumstances this season yet, and although this being at Epsom would have increased her chances, she has won elsewhere, and I'm hoping the track won't undo her here. Korngold is too short having only run average races since his last win and remains 6lbs higher than that success, I'm not totally sure Persian Herald will get home well enough on the ground, Achalas hasn't shown enough this season to me to be a solid option. King's Troop is the one I reckon could run well if improving on its first run of the season but although he has a swing with my selection on Epsom form from September, Shesha Bear was comfortably in command that day.

Ran well, beaten a length in 2nd. Found one too good. Shame.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Well a winner at Brighton but not the obvious one! Heading To First didn't run great. It was a funny race though and the winner had a dream run through up the rail. Low level handicap debutants are very difficult to call. Fair enough, loss on that one. Thankfully Moment In Time did very well to win. Would have been cursing my luck had she been narrowly beaten today given she was carried all the way over to the far rail by the eventual 3rd but stuck on bravely to repel the fast-finishing runner-up. That one also hung under pressure but my selection did nothing wrong and couldn't help what was happening so was a deserving winner. Shame Shesha Bear couldn't make it a cracking day but profit is profit...

Bets: 21 Wins: 4 Placed: 7 Staked: 56pts Returned: 69pts

P/L: +13pts

Bank: 113pts Doesn't look too bad tomorrow at Haydock for midweek so possibly something there. Might have an early look at the Hunt Cup next week as well. Going to be so difficult to work out where you want to be so won't be going crazy I don't think! I think next week could be brilliant or diabolical for this thread and me in general I guess. Will be looking at all of the races there rather than just the handicaps, but any selections in those will be found elsewhere. Picking them out okay at the minute I think so fingers crossed it continues.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps I don't know if he'll sneak into the Hunt Cup but I guess if the ground's soft that will help Unex El Greco as I imagine as some won't go, but it will suit him. Seems to enjoy soft ground and a low-weight won this last year. He's run back into form this time around for Gosden and was unfortunate not to go closer at Epsom last time when thundering home having been hampered/unsuited by the camber. Should be better off at a flatter track and probably isn't off a bad mark. Will wait and see with him though, although he's not a massive price even at the moment.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Four today. Won't be going mad with the write-ups because I want to go back to bed I'm afraid! 2.20 Haydock - 3pts win Countess Ferrama @ 7/2 (Bet365) Tricky little race where you could make a claim for just about all of these, but I'm pretty keen on William Haggas' runner with Kelly Harrison on board after winning on her last time out, and this is Harrison's only ride on the card. You always have to be wary of a Mark Prescott handicap debutant stepping right up in trip but Gassin Golf has been off the track for a while and I'll sidestep that one for a filly who I believe is fairly handicapped as she steps up further in distance. She was a surprise winner at Thirsk on her seasonal return and having only put the race to bed late on, shaped as if this extra 2f today would really help. It's no great surprise given she's out of a Park Hill winner (near enough this trip) and by a Derby winner. She chased the leader on that occasion but looked in trouble for a few yards when under pressure up the straight, but rallied well to score in the end by 1 1/4l. With the race working out, and the step up in trip suiting, as well as having fitness more on her side, I think she's set to be tough to beat today. The runner-up from Thirsk has won off 80 since, the same mark my selection runs off today. The 3rd went down by a neck off 77 next time out and the 6l 4th wasn't beaten far off 73, so considering I expect further progression today, a mark of 80 doesn't look restrictive and she could still be nicely in I fancy. The ground isn't a problem as she handled it well last time, and Haggas has a record of 15-46 at the track. I think he can add to that fine record with this one today.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 3.50 Haydock - 4pts win Tmaam @ 4/1 (Bet365) Another competitive and decent handicap but if Mark Johnston's Tmaam returns in good order then I think he's set to run very well here and thoroughly deserves to be where he is in the market for this race. He didn't do much wrong at all in four starts last campaign when never out of the places. He did good late work on debut over 1m at Musselburgh when not reaching the winner in 2nd (1st had run of race in front) before running an eyecatching 3rd in a Sandown maiden over 1m2f on good to soft ground. He was under pressure and outpaced from a fair way out but eventually stayed on dourly into the money, shaping as if further would definitely suit. The winner was the 91-rated Arch Fire with the 86-rated Polperro in 2nd so it was a decent race and a stiffer test would definitely help my selection as he was really eating up ground at the death. He managed to put it all together when duly stepped up again to this trip of 1m4f at Bath. He took a little while to put the race to bed, but stayed on strongly under pressure and eventually managed to assert into a ready 3 3/4l victory on this occasion. He did all his best work at the finish and was comfortably on top come the line. The race wasn't bad either with some decent sorts lurking in behind - Tonnerre (now rated 85 was beaten 14l) and Vasily (now rated 87 beaten 35l). Things weren't really ideal for Tmaam at Newmarket on his final start of 2011 in a four-runner race where he was forced to set an ordinary gallop. This wouldn't have suited a grinding type such as Tmaam as he doesn't have a lethal turn of foot. He will stay on for you, as he did to rally back into chase the 2nd once the race picked up and he was outpaced. The ground was on the sharp side, also, so basically I don't think it was enough of a test. He was beaten 1 1/2l in the end by a horse who went very close off 4lbs higher last weekend and is now rated 11lbs higher than when beating my selection. Tmaam stays off the same mark and the two horses who he beat in that race have both gone well in handicaps this term. He has been off the track for a while which is the only real issue it seems, but his Bath win came after an absence of 91 days so that eases the concern a little bit and I'm very optimistic of a big run.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 4.00 Beverley - 3pts win Zaplamation @ 6/1 (VC) I think the price for John Quinn's runner here is generous as he drops back to his ideal trip with the course in favour as well. He's won over today's c&d in the past and has also placed on four separate occasions at this venue so the return here can hopefully see him back in the winner's enclosure. His strike rate isn't anything special but he's in form and isn't a bad type when he has his conditions. He was beaten a neck over today's c&d last May off 6lbs higher and seems in rude health at present - as seen when running well on all three starts this season, including when 2nd over hurdles at Wetherby last time out (pulled hard). Prior to that he travelled best of all when failing to pick up to great degree at Catterick, but like I said, I think he'll be happier 2f shorter here (never won further than 10f). It was a similar story when not beaten far at Doncaster in an amateur riders event on his seasonal return - a race where the first 3 were clear and the other two have run well since so he looks poised to strike. A bit of juice in the ground doesn't concern and he drops back into a 0-65 having run well in 0-75 company at Catterick. I don't think there's anything special in the race and these typically don't have great strike rates themselves. Michael O'Connell has a 20% strike rate at the course and an impressive 23% strike rate for John Quinn and I expect him to have a good spin back on board this one today.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 4.30 Beverley - 2pts win Oops Caroline @ 14/1 (Bet365) Although David O'Meara's filly hasn't been threatening to win a race as of yet, she's been running a bit better than the bare form suggests and she drops back into 0-55 company today having been comfortably held in a 0-65 event last time out. She showed promise without being anything remotely special in maidens and her handicap debut over 7f wasn't too bad. However, stepped up in trip the last twice she's raced lazily and had to be shoved along with a long way to go - both over 1m2f and 1m6f. On evidence, the trip in the middle of 1m4f today could well be ideal. She stayed on from an uncompromising position at Redcar two starts back to finish 8th of 14, and whilst nothing special, she shaped as if further would help her and she was under pressure in last with a few furlongs to race. She was off the bridle even earlier last time out at the same venue before briefly threatening to get involved up the straight. She faded inside the final 2f and was eased throughout the latter of those to exaggerate the losing margin. On this occasion she didn't seem to get home so the 12f inbetween her most recent two runs should suit. I think this is the weakest race she's contested to date and is dropped again in the weights to be 6lbs lower than her run two starts back. Potentially crucially, connections have opted for blinkers today for the first time and I'm putting my faith in these doing the job. If they can help her concentrate and travel better today, she's going to have a much better chance of winning this. If she can put her best foot forward today then I don't think she's out of this despite having pretty modest form so far.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Countess Ferrama. Big chance on form. Drifts from 7/2 out to 8/1 and what happens? Tailed off...who'd have thought it?

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Just can't get that big win!!! Tmaam drifted too out to 13/2 so 4pts on the nose would have been a nice return. Another one in 2nd. Need a winner today.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Zaplamation can only manage a place as well in 3rd despite strong market support. All on the last selection. Fingers crossed but can't be overly confident.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Bollocks!! Unplaced in the end, remarkably! Probably just about led 1/2f out. One of those nearly days.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps

Bets: 25 Wins: 4 Placed: 9 Staked: 68pts Returned: 69pts

P/L: +1pts

Bank: 101pts

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Only one race that I have an interest in this evening. 7.40 Kempton - 3pts win Willie Wag Tail @ 5/1 (Bet365) This is a fiercely competitive race with some unexposed types in here and the favourite has had his debut win franked by the runner-up winning today. This is a big step up in trip, though, and you can never be sure with Godolphin runners first time up so I'll side with one who has an unexposed profile but with race fitness on his side, as well as a good draw unlike the favourite. Ed Walker's runner will come out of stall 3 and looks a nice progressive type who can continue his upward curve with victory tonight. He returns to the scene of his debut where he stayed on steadily when forced wide into a respectable 5th of 12 and given he's quite a large, galloping type, it wasn't a bad effort. He relished the test of a mile on soft ground at Redcar next time out when travelling well and staying on strongly to gallop 3 1/4l clear come the line. He seemed to have plenty left in the tank at the finish and the jockey had a tough time pulling him up - whilst other runners looked weary. He always looked like he'd relish further and ran well on his return at Sandown last time out. Likely to need the run, he only went down by 3/4l and the ground might have been on the sharp side. He kept on well and although he couldn't go with the winner, he was holding the rest of the finishers at bay and that gives me further hope he'll get the extra 2f today. His sire has a good record over middle-distances and an impressive 19% on the all-weather so the return here won't be a problem and he should have come on for that recent run. There should be more to come now 3lbs higher and horses have come out of that race to run okay since. Ed Walker is in form and George Baker is a good jockey booking in my opinion. Think he'll go very well this evening.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Good job I looked at the evening cards! Travelled like a dream, looked potentially in danger for a moment but soon found under pressure and won comfortably in the end. Not a speed horse so didn't expect him to accelerate clear anyway so a nice performance.

Bets: 26 Wins: 5 Placed: 9 Staked: 71pts Returned: 87pts

P/L: +16pts

Bank: 116pts

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 2.50 Newbury - 2pts win Beauchamp Castle @ 10/1 (VC) A few of these have questions to answer and whilst my selection does too, she's a fair price and I think she can go very well here if handling the soft ground on her turf debut. She's by Motivator - whose progeny have a good record on such surfaces so I have my fingers crossed that she will add to that record with a good performance here. It's interesting to me that William Buick takes the ride for the first time on this filly, and only for the 2nd time for Hans Adielsson. His only other ride saw him finish 2nd so his booking is a positive sign in my eyes. This one has often been partnered by Nicole Nordblad, who is not the best pilot in the world and George Baker last time was the only run Beauchamp Castle has had without Nordblad in the saddle. She showed respectable, if rather modest form in maidens and novice events before winning her handicap debut off a mark of 59. It was quite a taking performance over the mile at Kempton off the back of a lay-off over the winter and she came with a decisive run down the outside to win by a comfortable 1 1/2l under a hands ride from Nordblad. However, the jockey didn't give her the best of rides the next twice at Lingfield and Wolverhampton respectively - as she made ground very wide around the bends before staying on. She wasn't beaten too far at all and I think a straight track will really play to her strengths. She's a long-striding, galloping type who should relish the straight here today so long as the surface is no issue. Since her 3rd at Wolverhampton she has travelled okay but failed to pick up over 1m3f and 1m4f at Kempton. It's difficult to say whether she gets home as she hasn't exactly been stopping to nothing in these races but it doesn't seem a bad thing that she's stepped back down to a mile here - where her best performances have lied. Even though this is a small field, a fair few of them seem to want to go forward and a good pace will really help this one today. The yard had a bit of a quieter time over the last month or so - a possible excuse for Beauchamp Castle's flatter runs and now they are flying. It's a good time for her to return to the track and the blinkers are applied in an attempt to bring a bit more out of her.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 4.55 Yarmouth - 3pts win Byron Blue @ 7/1 (Bet365) Jamie Osbourne's runner has been a frustrating horse to follow, having been sent off at 3/1, 5/1, 6/1 and 5/1 on his last four starts without landing a blow, and although he's not much bigger today (and may be backed in again), the continuous steps up in trip are bringing him closer to the boil and the 1m6f trip on offer here might just be the decisive factor in getting him into the winner's enclosure. His 4l 3rd to Unex Michelangelo over 7f on just his 2nd start last year reads well considering what has gone since, and he's sliding down the handicap to now run off 5lbs lower than his opening mark. This came in a mile race at Nottingham at the back-end of last season where he was struggling in the rear before making up some late ground. He was never dangerous but passed a few rivals late in the day to suggest he does have some ability when the conditions are right. He's a slow-started without much of a change in pace so the further he goes, the better he should run within reason. His seasonal reappearance at Goodwood over 1m2f this season was very eyecatching for me as he stayed on really well in the closing stages from an uncompromising position. He was right out the back, hampered, and then delivered isolated up the centre of the course (often best to be on stands rail in soft conditions). He ended up 5th of 13 under pretty generous handling. The 2nd, 3rd and 4th have run well enough since to suggest the form holds some water so I don't think it was a terrible run, for all it shouted out like he'd want even further. He got that last time out over 1m4f and came closest yet when beaten 5 1/4l. I'm not sure it was a sufficient-enough test given the ground was on the quick side, and although it is again today, he has an extra 2f to play with. It was a similar story as he was slowly away and behind before staying on into 6th. His pedigree contains plenty of stamina, being by Dylan Thomas and the 1m6f trip looks the obvious thing to do with him today. This might just be his trip based on what we've seen so far and it could make his mark look fair. The yard are going okay and Jamie Spencer takes the ride for the first time. It isn't a special race and fingers crossed the key to this one has been found and he can repay the faith of connections and punters alike.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 5.15 Nottingham - 3pts win Napoleon's Muse @ 10/1 (Bet365) Ralph Beckett has his horses in fine order at present after a bit of a quieter spell in May - the month in which Napoleon's Muse made her second run of the year. She ran okay in the contest but considering the yard are in better shape now, she may be capable of even better. He sends this one to Nottingham where he has a 52% strike rate with regards to horses either winning or placing and I think his filly has a really good chance at a nice price here. After a disappointing debut when unfancied at Goodwood, she dug in really deep to win over 7f at Kempton on her 2nd start. You would have given her little chance at the top of the straight seen as she was driven along whilst many others were still going well on the bridle but she kept digging in and staying on to eventually prevail by a head. It was a performance which suggested she'd need further to be shown at her very best and it's no surprise on pedigree given she's by an Arc winner and out of a lightly-raced mile winner (funnily enough her only win came at Nottingham). She was put away for the winter subsequently and I think her return effort at Windsor can be excused. She's been off the track for seven months or so and I don't think the ground was ideal. It was very testing that day and her action implies she needs a sound surface to be at her best. Even though she was detached out the back with half a mile to run, she kept on to some degree to finish 9th of 12 and she was bound to improve for that given the unsuitable conditions she faced on her first run back. It suggested she had some stamina though not to completely tail off so there was a small amount of promise in the run. It was no surprise to see her run much better in quite a competitive handicap at Newmarket on quicker ground last time out. She led the group on the stands side and kept on fairly well under pressure rather than buckling. She finished 8th of 16 in the end and was only beaten 4 1/2l. The race has worked out pretty nicely too and I think Napoleon's Muse will be happier stepped up in trip to 1m2f today given the way she shaped over a fairly testing mile. I don't think a mark of 72 is beyond her and she's overpriced for me with conditions to suit. Although the ground is good to soft in places, it's good on the whole and the weather is supposedly set fair so the ground should dry out further before the race. I'm not sure those rated 70 and below in this are going to be good enough to win, and Forgive/Arch Of Colours have to prove they stay this trip. Ambivalent raced keenly over a mile on debut before flopping next time out and returns from a 253-day absence to try this new trip so I'll take that one on, leaving just Dutch Diamond rating as the main danger. A repeat of her run last time out gives her a good chance but the race hasn't worked out very well and she could just be vulnerable late on in the race given her pedigree doesn't exactly scream out middle-distances and as of yet, no horse by Dutch Art has won over further than 1m 1/2f.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Had plenty of drifters recently but these are strong so fingers crossed for today. Beauchamp Castle solid at 10/1, Byron Blue into 9/2 from 7/1 and Napoleon's Muse 10/1 into 5/1 (15p rule 4 I think). Still will pay 17/2 with the deduction. Fingers crossed we're in for a good day.