Bathtime For Rupert Posted June 7, 2012 Author Share Posted June 7, 2012 Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 9.00 Sandown - 1pt win Significant Move @ 14/1 (Bet365) Debated whether to play this one considering this is his first outing of the season and he seemed to need it last term, but a 1pt bet isn't going to break the bank and if Stuart Kittow has him ready, it could pay nicely. He's a horse who is typically consistent and went into my notebook when an extremely unfortunate 2l 6th here almost one year ago to the day. He was badly hampered in the run and probably would have won on that occasion given a bit of luck. That was only off 4lbs lower in a very competitive heat and he did manage to win at Warwick two starts later in the season off 77. He is a soft-ground winner but I don't think the combination of 1m4f and soft ground at Goodwood helped on his final two runs of 2011. It probably just stretched him on the surface and the losing margin was vastly exaggerated on the latter of those efforts. Ian Mongan reported he hung left throughout, and he raced a little isolated up the centre of the track once they came across. He was beaten at the time but he got a bump and Mongan soon eased him down. He would have been beaten more like 15l rather than 45 had he been ridden out without the interference I think and that would have been a more realistic review of the run. The time before that saw a similarly distorted outcome. An 11l 5th doesn't look great but the winner dotted up by 8l and is now rated 20lbs superior so he was very well treated that day. Significant Move wasn't beaten far by the rest and it was a pretty decent bunch of runners. The return to 1m2f here will suit and obviously can go well at the course. The ground perhaps would be better if a little quicker but it won't be bottomless so long as we don't get a lot of rain so that shouldn't be a big concern either. It's the 260-day absence which is my main issue given he was 9th of 15 on his seasonal debut last time around. It wasn't a hideous run behind Modun (much higher rated now) but this isn't a bad race and he'll need to be fully tuned up to win it. There a couple of obvious dangers so I would need to see him fit to challenge and I can't guarantee that so I'm only going in small. However, he's no 14/1 shot if he's ready enough and fingers crossed he can run to his best on his first run back, because I would be all over him like a rash with a recent run under his belt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted June 7, 2012 Author Share Posted June 7, 2012 Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Got that one wrong. What a disappointment 'cos I really liked her chances today. Maybe she does need 1m4f around Wolverhampton to be at her best, not this far. Could really do with Song of Joy going in now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted June 7, 2012 Author Share Posted June 7, 2012 Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Urgh. Good progress before the straight but another one who didn't see the trip out. So annoying getting the trip side of things wrong. Looks like another blank. Never easy is it... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpo Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps It will come mate! I am thinking of starting up again myself as I have the summer off. It's always the case when you start these threads up that it becomes so much harder to find winners. Hopefully it won't be your last selection though as I am on Tilsworth Glenboy! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted June 7, 2012 Author Share Posted June 7, 2012 Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps It will come mate! I am thinking of starting up again myself as I have the summer off. It's always the case when you start these threads up that it becomes so much harder to find winners. Hopefully it won't be your last selection though as I am on Tilsworth Glenboy! Aye it's happened before and it will happen again but not going to get too concerned. It's a few days out of a year at the end of the day and I'm sure it will come around if I keep doing what I'm doing. Just got to stick to it and remain disciplined. As the Hugh Taylor video that Lars posted said, losing runs are all relative. If your average price is like mine (in this thread it's 10.7/1), a losing run of 11 isn't particularly peculiar. Hoping Significant Move goes well but he'll do very well to win on his return from an absence in a race that will be a test on the ground. Fingers crossed but your's has a cracking chance so if I can't get the win, I hope you can :ok: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted June 7, 2012 Author Share Posted June 7, 2012 Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Could see that coming, especially on the ground. Bets: 11 Wins: 0 Placed: 4 Staked: 25pts Returned: 0pts P/L: -25pts Bank: 75pts Time to get stuck into tomorrow. A winner just around the corner I hope... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted June 8, 2012 Author Share Posted June 8, 2012 Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 4.30 Newmarket - 4pts win Thomas Chippendale @ 9/4 (Bet365) Posted this before his recent reappearance run: 3.05 Newbury - 3pts win Thomas Chippendale @ 3/1 (PP) The concerns for this one would be the slight issue of the form of Sir Henry Cecil's horses at the moment, and the fact he's been absent from the track for for 221 days, but he has a huge amount of promise and barring a disaster, he'll be winning races this year I'm sure. There were obvious excuses for his poor showing on debut over 7f at York. Firstly, he had a very wide draw to contend with in stall 15 and this saw him come extremely wide around the home turn. His inexperience was there for all to see clearly and he really didn't seem to have much idea as to what he was meant to be doing. He wasn't going anywhere really at the time, but any momentum was halted when badly hampered with a furlong-and-a-half or so to race and he was an eased home 10th of 17 in the end. Although he still looked green enough on his next start at Leicester when asked to quicken, the way he moved through the race was extremely impressive as Tom Queally only asked him to pick up at the furlong pole. He cruised up to challenge and although still requiring the experience, he managed to find enough of a stride to quicken up and score by a neck. He will still come on plenty for that and the runner-up has thrived in the USA since - culminating in an excellent 4th in the Kentucky Derby recently. Thomas Chippendale still holds a Derby entry so is clearly very highly thought of and it's obvious why. He still has plenty more to come and especially over further. He steps up to 1m2f today from a mile which won't be an issue I'm sure. He's out of the Aidan O'Brien trained All My Loving - placed in an Oaks and a Park Hill so he should improve for further, and he needs to be winning this really to justify his high-profile entries. I'm tempted to go even bigger on him but I'll play middle-big stakes considering his absence and the fact he quite possibly has other things in mind. He was well supported on this occasion as he went off the 2/1f but couldn't see his race out sufficiently to win the race. However, he travelled strongly and came wide up the straight. Made effortless progress to challenge but found little under pressure and was beaten 5 1/4l in the end. He shaped as if he'd come on plenty for that and it's plausible the better ground will suit today as well (so long as the rain doesn't come...as it has over the last few days to scupper my hopes!). The race has worked out well enough to suggest it wasn't a terrible effort all things considered - the winner has run a 2nd in a listed event since and the 3rd has also finished runner-up in a valuable Grade 2 handicap. I'm sure Thomas Chippendale will be winning off this mark and quite possibly higher and I think he'll take the mother of beating today. He's got a lot of class and should be finishing his race off better today. The yard are in top nick and although there are some potentially progressive types in here, they'll have to be pretty special to beat Cecil's runner in my eyes. I sincerely hope so as I rarely bet at this kind of price! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted June 8, 2012 Author Share Posted June 8, 2012 Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 5.40 Newmarket - 2pts win Dicey Vows @ 12/1 (Bet365) It is a bit of a concern that Alan Jarvis' runner is as big as 19 on the exchanges and has already drifted to 12s from 10s since opening up with Bet365, but I'll live in hope that either the market weakness doesn't continue or is misleading, because I think this one can play a big part on his handicap debut. He showed very little on debut at Nottingham over a mile but the trainer wouldn't have many first time out winners and it was no surprise to see this one perform much better next time out over the same c&d. He didn't travel particularly strongly throughout but came home a fair 5th of 12 in a race where the front two dominated completely. Two decent types - they finished 10l ahead of anything else and Dicey Vows was only 3l behind the 76-rated 3rd. I'm not sure the ground there was riding the described good to firm given the times of the races on that day (wind could have been a factor also) but he didn't make any real inroads up the straight. Having been gelded after that run, he returned at Kempton in late March over 1m3f. He travelled much better on this occasion since his operation but sat off the pace in a race which again favoured those up front. Similarly, the first couple were clearly a fair bit better than the rest but Dicey Vows did best of those held-up, and he also was short of room turning in which cost him a bit of ground. He stayed on, though, into an 11l 4th of 10. The first two are now rated 85 and 85 and the 3rd horse 73. My selection was only 3/4l behind that one and would have finished ahead given a clear run (and the 3rd had a better track position). Dicey Vows, as a 4yo, had to give plenty of weight away to his juniors as well, so all in all it wasn't a bad effort for his first run back. On the face of it, an opening mark of 65 doesn't look too bad given the way he can hopefully come on for that. Having said that, he hasn't been seen for over two months. Still, he should be a lot more competitive now handicapping and Darryll Holland looks a good jockey booking. He travelled like an improved horse last time so hopefully he can carry that into this race and a sound surface will suit. The trainer's horses are shaping a bit better now than the last couple of months so it looks a good time to return to the fold for this one. It is a decent and competitive field but it could be that Dicey Vows is handicapped to strike now and market support would be encouraging. It doesn't look likely at this moment in time but it is early and fingers crossed he doesn't drift out markedly which would suggest he won't be winning today. There's no apparent reason why he shouldn't run okay so I'll stick with him because I'm lacking any real negatives conditions-wise so I'll keep the faith and hope it's repaid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted June 8, 2012 Author Share Posted June 8, 2012 Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Evening bets likely but will look at them tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted June 8, 2012 Author Share Posted June 8, 2012 Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps This rain during the day is doing my head in. Dicey Vows out now. Out to 20/1 so probably wouldn't have been his day but it will come I think, and the fact connections think he's a better ground horse will help for future reference. Need to take a look at Donny/Goodwood now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted June 8, 2012 Author Share Posted June 8, 2012 Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Nothing spectacular with a 9/4 winner (backed into 13/8) but nice to get the first one in the bag. As I suspected, he's a fair bit better than his current mark and quickened nicely on the ground to run out a very ready victor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted June 8, 2012 Author Share Posted June 8, 2012 Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Plenty of handicaps tonight and I've found four I like quite a bit so hopeful of a decent evening... 6.20 Goodwood - 3pts win Moody Tunes @ 5/1 (Ladbrokes) Moody Tunes paid for setting a quick pace last time under this rider but under a more retrained ride today I think he's going to take a lot of beating given conditions are right for him. Miss A L Murphy just gave him too much rein (as can often be the case in these amateur rider races) and I think she'll have learned from that. Previously, she has a good record on the horse, finishing 2nd on three separate occasions off higher marks. He was beaten a short-head in August off 6lbs higher and the way he's returned to form this season suggests he'll be winning soon. The ground was possibly a bit lively at Newbury, also, and this one does his winning over a mile/9f so the step back by a furlong will help too. His highly encouraging 2nd over an insufficient 7f at Lingfield on his return (when outpaced) showed he was in good heart and I think he'll continue his form here with distance, ground and handicap mark to suit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted June 8, 2012 Author Share Posted June 8, 2012 Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 6.30 Bath - 3pts win Ostentation @ 4/1 (Ladbrokes) Having looked at the horses in this race, I can't make much of a case for many of them and that's why I'm surprised that Alastair Lidderdale's unpenalised runner is so big at 4/1 here. Although the ground holds some mystery still (ran okay on good to soft before), he's improved with the blinkers fitted and won well off this mark under this rider last time out at Brighton. Prior to that he was a sound 2nd at Southwell having lost his place and having to rally, so with the headgear retained, he should be capable of following up. He had plenty in hand at Brighton last time and with ground concerns over a few of these, form concerns over some more, and trip/attitude concerns over others, he looks the percentage call and think he'll take a fair bit of beating off the same mark. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted June 8, 2012 Author Share Posted June 8, 2012 Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps (Apologies for the shorter posts but trying to get these done while the prices remain...the study was more thorough than I'm showing!) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted June 8, 2012 Author Share Posted June 8, 2012 Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 7.45 Doncaster - 2pts win Classic Colori @ 16/1 (Bet365) Competitive mile handicap here but I notice there are plenty of horses in it who like to be held up and that means it could pay to side with a prominent racer. Seven out of the 12 runners want to come off the pace based on their recent running and there isn't anything that is guaranteed to want to lead. However, Classic Colori enjoys being up there and tried to make all at York on his recent reappearance. He travelled well that day but faded late on in a competitive heat where it favoured those coming from off the pace. It was no surprise given it was his first run back this season and it was over a 1m2f trip that he hasn't conclusively proved he stays. He's been campaigned often over that distance but his wins have come over shorter and the drop back to a mile should suit him here. He's only 1lb higher than when beaten a head in a 22-runner Newmarket handicap over 1m1f last September - a race where the winner won next time out, and Classic Colori was clear of the rest in 2nd. A repeat of that will see him go extremely close here and only one of his four subsequent starts came over a trip of a mile which may be ideal. He raced keenly in a small field and he tried to chase the progressive winner. He was comfortably beaten in the end as those who sat off the pace came through late on. Allowed to stride on over a mile today should help him settle and he'll be able to see his race out stronger now I think. His return effort held plenty of promise and he's overpriced at 16/1 for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted June 8, 2012 Author Share Posted June 8, 2012 Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 8.00 Goodwood - 3pts win Rei D'oro @ 9/1 (Hills) I often find it hard to assess races like this - where there are a number of potentially progressive types - but I think David Simcock's runner is fairly treated off a mark of 74 and is capable of better having only had four starts to date. He didn't show much on debut with 10th at Wolverhampton but shaped with abundant promise next time out at Kempton when running green, having to check off heels up the straight before staying on well into a 2l 3rd over a mile. He's a big sort who clearly would be better over further than the trip he competed over there. He again shaped as if a mile was the bare minimum for him when winning his maiden on his 3rd start back at Wolverhampton. He was under pressure a fair way out for an even money shot and looked held turning in when he had three lengths to find and under the whip. However, his stamina started to tell as he wore down the leaders and forged on close home to win by 1 1/4l. The runner-up there has been narrowly denied since in a handicap off 69 so on that I really don't see why my selection can't win off 74 upped in trip. He was subsequently stepped up to 1m4f at Chepstow last time but a four-runner race was hardly ideal for him. He plugged on but it was his first run in over three months and should have come on for that. He was beaten 3 1/4l in the end but a stronger pace here will suit (more likely given number of runners) and the front two franked the form from the Welsh venue. They filled the 1st and 3rd positions in valuable handicap at Musselburgh next time out so it adds to the strength of Rei D'oro's chances here. Handled turf last time and if going on the ground, he'll go very well I think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavlar17 Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Nothing spectacular with a 9/4 winner (backed into 13/8) but nice to get the first one in the bag. As I suspected' date=' he's a fair bit better than his current mark and quickened nicely on the ground to run out a very ready victor.[/quote'] Might not have been your biggest priced pick mate, but getting that all important W is sometimes more important! Think the detail in your write ups are spot on mate and look forward to reading more of them in the future :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted June 8, 2012 Author Share Posted June 8, 2012 Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps What's that about buses... Lovely drift to 7s and a very game effort. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavlar17 Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps What's that about buses... Lovely drift to 7s and a very game effort. Had a nibble on it myself, didn't think the jockey was doing enough 2f but fair play - got up when it had to. Top man Rupert! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nickf88 Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Brilliant mate loving that ! Nice drift as well, nice one! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted June 8, 2012 Author Share Posted June 8, 2012 Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Had a nibble on it myself, didn't think the jockey was doing enough 2f but fair play - got up when it had to. Top man Rupert! :ok Aye she didn't really go for him until he was passed but she got the job done in the end. Had a very willing partner. Cheers guys. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted June 8, 2012 Author Share Posted June 8, 2012 Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps I think we'll say little about that ride... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nickf88 Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Hope the stewards enquire about Nordblads ride on Ostentation, what on earth was she playing at? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted June 8, 2012 Author Share Posted June 8, 2012 Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps That would have been nice... Classic Colori 16s into 8s and held-up which I was a bit surprised about. Stayed on to be beaten 1/2l in 2nd. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted June 8, 2012 Author Share Posted June 8, 2012 Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Better day today. Thomas Chippendale won impressively having been well backed. Moody Tunes was very brave out in front to rally and score at 7/1 (drifted from 5s) Ostentation ran badly but was given a pretty brainless ride. Classic Colori nearly made it a blinding day as he halved in price and was beaten 1/2l. Rei D'oro is best judged on another day I think. The way the race was run didn't suit and will keep an eye on him. +22pts on the day and now -3pts overall. Lots of handicaps tomorrow so will get onto that after the football! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted June 9, 2012 Author Share Posted June 9, 2012 Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 2.00 Chester - 3pts win Reyamour @ 13/2 (Bet365) I actually don't like quite a few in this race and I narrowed it down to two in the end and was more confident on this runner. The fact she's drawn 1 whilst my other shortlisted one is in 9 sealed the deal and I just hope Kathleen Frances doesn't do the business! Although there's nothing strictly wrong with the form of the favourite, I cannot get involved at 9/4 considering I'm not sure she has the speed to make a track like this ideal for her. She may well go in but I'm not sure she will and is worth taking on. A few of these have to prove they stay, others have to prove they handle cut in the ground and it quickly reduces the field down if you're confident they won't be getting too involved in the finish. Alan King's surprise maiden winner last time has a plum draw in stall 1 and I'd expect Fergus Sweeney to make good use of this given the way she raced up there with the pace at Salisbury last time out. She kept digging deep once she was in front and did well to win a 1m2f maiden on good ground I think. She'll be better over this sort of trip and I don't think it was a bad maiden that she won. Plenty of the big players with regards to trainers had entrants and some had decent form prior to the run, and some have gone well since. This filly was beaten a head over 1m4f on very soft ground over in France before also recording a fast finishing 3rd over 1m3f in similarly testing conditions at Saint-cloud. The winner on that occasion was rated 77 over here before progressive in France and the runner-up has gone very well since to rise up the ranks. She therefore proved the trip and ground today will be no problem and her opening mark of 80 isn't too bad I don't believe. Only three runners in the race have won over this distance and one of those seems happiest on a quicker surface, one of those is drawn widest of all, and as mentioned earlier, the other one I'm not convinced about this track. My selection is arguably the only other runner who is guaranteed to stay the trip and 13/2 is not a bad price for a trainer who wouldn't have many runners at Chester. There should be more to come now and she could take a bit of passing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted June 9, 2012 Author Share Posted June 9, 2012 Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 3.10 Chester - 2pts win War Poet @ 6/1 (SJ) Posted this before an intended run at York: 2.00 York - 2pts win War Poet @ 9/1 (PP) Tricky race this one and I ended up making a shortlist of 4, and I will be disappointed should one of the others win - unless I have a tickle on course! I backed Caucus last time when running a very big race at Newmarket after an absence and there isn't much putting me off him today so it's been a difficult call to initially oppose him. Sadeek's Song is surely better than what he showed last time in a better race and is a player, and course specialist Tepmokea completed the shortlist for me. I've ended up opting for the David O'Meara trained individual, who does have a wide draw to contend with, but he's a hold-up performer and the way the horses are coming down the centre of the course this week could make this slightly less of an issue should he not get in. However, he'll be restrained for sure by Daniel Tudhope and delivered late. He's a horse who travels very well and still has the potential to improve having only had 12 runs in his career to date. Flat tracks suit him so there will be no issue with the course today and the trip/ground are also in his favour. He proved he can handle any ground when successful at Doncaster recently on soft, and looked as good as ever when winning that day over 1m2f. He's entitled to come on for that as well having run respectably over hurdles on three occasions over the winter. He's only had six runs in handicaps on the level, winning three and placing once, with just two bad runs coming in the summer of last year. He'll love coming off a true gallop going well and he's likely to be one of the last off the bridle. This is a step up in grade once more but the race he won last time wasn't a bad one and he doesn't do much when he hits the front which means the handicapper might struggle to get his measure. He often hangs when he gets there and he wins his races usually under a hands ride with the jockey rarely going for the whip. He probably has plenty in hand at the finish so if Tudhope times it right today, he can hopefully add another win to his tally. He was taken out on this occasion, which was a shame, because I was keen on his chances. He slipped in the paddock and was taken out as a precaution. Assuming everything is fine with the horse now I think he's got a big chance here, for all he runs at a very different track to Doncaster - where he recorded a career-best on his seasonal reappearance. However, he's won at the sharper venue of Thirsk before and I think he'll be capable of handling this tight track. It can often be the case that you need to be close enough turning in here, and that's why I think he has a better chance than some other hold-up merchants here perhaps. He usually makes his ground up with 2 or 3 furlongs to race and that would be a good time to get involved here. Whether that changes due to the nature of the track (no long straight) I do not know but he's usually better value than his winning margins suggest and that was the case at Doncaster as well. It was a decent race and he's a progressive type with only 9 flat starts in his career to date. This is indeed extremely competitive but he's not terribly drawn and so long as he gets the splits, he has the tactical speed to get into the race and should get a decent pace to run off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted June 9, 2012 Author Share Posted June 9, 2012 Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 4.00 Newmarket - 2pts win Western Pearl @ 20/1 (PP) Another fiercely contested event but there's no way William Knight's runner should be a 20/1 shot in this, even if he did put in a poor display on his recent seasonal debut. He was similarly disappointing on his return in 2011 (and after 3-month break last year) but ran much better 2nd time out and I hope he can do so today. If it was a case of him simply needing the run then he shouldn't be underestimated here with conditions to suit. He relishes soft ground and a stiff test at this trip of 1m4f might just be spot on for him. Although he hasn't got his head in front since running away with a Ffos Las maiden, he's ran many good races, including several where he had a difficult task at the weights. His efforts in England last summer (after reappearance) were very respectable and would put him in with a fair squeak in a race such as this. He was initially 3rd to Chiberta King over 1m6f on soft ground at Goodwood but since that race, the winner has gone on to be rated 17lbs superior so he just bumped into one to be fair. There was a long way back to the 4th and even further back to the 5th so it wasn't a bad run at all and I just get the feeling 1m4f on testing ground will see him at his best. His subsequent 3rd on good ground in the John Smith's Silver Cup at York was a top-notch effort when you consider the ground wasn't soft and he was behind Tactician (beaten 1l in the Ebor off 6lbs higher) and Fox Hunt who ran crackers since including two Group wins abroad. That effort from Western Pearl was off the same mark as today so he doesn't appear out of this. He's run in listed events ever since and it's difficult for him to win given he's rated 92 and his rivals in those races are often higher. I think he'll be better off handicapping for all he ran a hugely encouraging race over in France in November. He gave 5lbs to his juniors when narrowly beaten with the 2nd now rated 104 (and showed he merited it with a strong 3rd in a listed event here since). That was under similar conditions today and was a fine effort. Everything from track, to ground, to distance suit today and considering he's got class and isn't handicapped out of things, 20/1 is a crazy price I reckon. I could be way off the mark given he's a fair bit bigger than that even on the exchanges, but I won't be letting this chance slide me by considering I think he has the credentials to run a blinder. Fingers crossed I'm right on this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted June 9, 2012 Author Share Posted June 9, 2012 Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 4.55 Doncaster - 1pt win Flying Power @ 14/1 (VC) Not necessarily the smartest bet in the world on a horse with a few quirks to say the least, but I think he has a fair chance today and should be spot on now having had two runs this season (and improved 1st to 2nd). He's not easy to win with and is a bit of a character but he has ability and had a few of today's rivals in behind last time out. I think he'll want a good test here and hopefully the leaders will come back on this ground and the race falls into the lap of John Norton's runner. The soft ground will help in that respect and he's shaped okay on it before without giving conclusive proof he enjoys it. He's only 2lbs higher for his most recent win when 1/2l too good at Leicester in August but suffered from having too much to do/not a clear run next time out and looked the likely winner for the vast majority of the contest at Windsor next time having set a good pace. He went down by a neck off this mark so he doesn't appear handicapped to the hilt. That was his final run of the season but having shaped as if needing his seasonal return/debut for new trainer, he improved last time to run okay. He ended up 6th of 13, beaten just over 7l, but the winner accounted for 5 of those so he wasn't too far behind the rest. This year's profile reads similar to his first few runs of last campaign when 15 1/2l and 7 1/2l on his first two starts before going close in 2nd on his third start so with further improvement plausible on his latest decent run, he can go close today as well. There are very few I think have a decent chance in this race and even those have questions to answer so it's worth taking a chance on a horse at a decent price who may well enjoy the way the race will pan out and has a bit more improvement to come this year. Small stakes given his nature, but he's no forlorn hope. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nickf88 Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps One winner in the bag mate, happy days! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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