French Open 2012

[fishy25]

2nd slam of the year is upon us then on Sunday with the draw having been made earlier on today. Rafa is looking to win his 7th title over in Paris whilst Li Na will be looking to defend her trophy from last year in a draw which features both Williams sisters. The links for both draws are: http://www.rolandgarros.com/en_FR/scores/draws/ms/index.html http://www.rolandgarros.com/en_FR/scores/draws/ws/index.html Let's hope for a profitable slam in the forum by all and see the clay season off in style :ok

[fishy25]

Re: French Open 2012 Couple of early outrights for me. May take some more later on but just these for now. Tomas Berdych to win French Open- 50/1 BetVictor- (0.5/10 E/W)- 1/2-1,2 Tomas Berdych to win 2nd Quarter- 11/2 BetVictor- (1.5/10) To me this draw looks set for Rafa to capture his 7th title and I don't really see anyone beating him in truth. His draw looks pretty appealing, providing he can see off the challenges of any few between Karlovic, Mayer, Raonic, Monaco, Almagro and Tipsarevic before potentially facing Murray or Ferrer in the semis. I expect him to do that comfortably in truth so that makes me stay firmly away from the bottom half of the draw. The top half though, looks to be the far tougher half, with the likes of Djokovic, Federer, Del Potro, Berdych, Isner and Tsonga all battling it out for that one final spot. Novak Djokovic is the obvious favourite with Federer just behind but IMO, Tomas Berdych has a decent chance himself of potentially setting up a repeat of the 2010 Wimbledon final against Nadal. The Czech looks to be returning to somewhere near his best recently, with wins over Del Potro, Almagro and Murray, whilst pushing Rafa, Novak and Roger close as well. One thing that's impressed me most of all over the past month or so has been his serving, which is a indicator for me to see how well Berdych is playing. He's been mixing it up well, and most of all, his first serve percentage has been pretty high as well which is what he needs to do in order to really push the top 3. He's avoided Djokovic in his quarter and out of the top 4, perhaps excluding a slightly injured Andy Murray, you'd have to say Berdych would feel the most comfortable playing Roger Federer and that's just what he'll be up against here you feel. Obviously he'll have to beat a likely combination of something like Sela-Garcia-Lopez-Anderson and most notably Del Potro to face Federer, but his draw, although he'll have to beat Del Potro doesn't seem too bad to me. Berdych finally beat the Argentinian for the first time in 4 meetings a few weeks back in Madrid and that should do his confidence the world of good if he has to play him in the fourth round here. If he does beat Del Potro, it's hard to see Federer not awaiting him in the quarter finals, but like I said, Berdych knows he has the game to beat Federer now and secretly, Federer would have been wanting to avoid him. Berdych has won 3 of the last 6 between the two, with 2 of the 3 Federer wins being extremely tight matches indeed. I just feel if this is the quarter final match-up, Berdych will really fancy it and arguably his toughest match will come in the shape of Del Potro in the round before, but if he gets past that, I feel 11/2 is a cracking price for him to win this quarter. One thing I haven't mentioned is the potential flurry of ranking points Berdych can pick up over the next couple of weeks. He embarrassingly went out in the first round 12 months ago to Stephane Robert, after throwing away a seemingly comfortable 2 set lead away. That means there are some serious ranking points for Berdych to pick up over in Paris and that should be an extra motivator for him I really fancy him to go well over the next couple of weeks and if he can get past Del Potro and Federer, and continue playing like he has done, it's certainly not going to be easy for Djokovic in the semis so I'll back Berdych to see just how far he can take my money in Paris. One outright for the women as well. Marion Bartoli to win French Open- 200/1 Sportingbet- (0.5/10 E/W)- 1/3-1,2 Wouldn't advise any bets with Sportingbet given the stupid deposit fees they have but I do have some lingering change in my account with them so that's why I'm taking this bet with them. Now the formalities are over, wtf is the reasoning with this price on Bartoli here :loon Am I missing something- seriously? Granted I haven't been too involved with the tennis recently but the last time I checked, this was a girl who can match any woman on the WTA tour on her day, was a semi finalist in Paris 12 months ago and is playing in front of her home crowd, so why she has warranted a 200/1 price escapes me. I suppose the main worry is her form on the clay this season, with just the 2 wins and lost her last 4 but as we see so often on the women's tour, all it takes is a couple of comfortable wins and that can seemingly transform a woman's game. Spoken how she made the semis last season so she knows she'll have points to defend but looking at her draw, I'm not sure she could have picked a better run in to be perfectly honest. Her quarter looks something like Pliskova-Martic-Medina Garrigues-Kerber. She leads the H2H comfortably against Martic and Medina Garrigues whilst Kerber has been struggling with a little back problem so there's no guarantees over her right now especially as she'll probably face Pennetta as well. Radwanska in the quarters is a huge problem for Bartoli though, given she's taken just one set from the Pole in 7 meetings. What's worth mentioning though is that Radwanska will have to play Venus Williams, Kuznetsova and either Errani or Ivanovic as well even before she reaches the quarter finals which is a really tough draw for her and all of the before mentioned should provide a test. Bartoli has the easier of the two routes to the quarters and if she can pick up a couple of good early wins and her fitness holds, she might not even have to face Radwanska in the quarters given her draw. If she makes it out of the quarter, it looks like Azarenka in the semis and Bartoli has a really good record against her, winning 3 of the last 5 including their only meeting this year and Bartoli's hard hitting game from both sides is something which can trouble Azarenka. If this is the semi final pairing, then the crowd will be ridiculously behind Bartoli given the home support and the fact that Azarenka will deafen them come the end of the match. If Bartoli reaches the semis, you would have the option to lay her off for a tidy sum as well but if she can get a run going and some momentum in her home tournament, she really could well I feel. She's already made one final in Paris this year and I'll back her to repeat that sort of performance or provide the fans with a home winner.

[Fizruhas]

Re: French Open 2012 Gulbis to beat Kukushkin 2.25@unibet (6/10) Yes we all know that Gulbis is eratic player with almost a tourist on the ATP tour than the player sometimes .... But he have all the weapons to go a bit further that any can imagine... The main problem is that we all can't imagine what is in Gulbis head, i don't understand sometimes him and really he is almost in my blacklist along with Almagro :) I do like when Gulbis is s slight underdog, he can produce some superb tennis and can win over best players in ATP tour. He beat Murray lately and showed great tennis there, there was a old gulbis who was on the tennis minds not holliday ... and i do believe he can win here over the russian ..also waitting for the total line to go over, but i really like Gulbis here ! GL !

[Alovenac]

Re: French Open 2012 Two picks for tommorow, not all odds are online. Krajinovic - Devilder In the qualification i was wondering how good Krajinovic is playing. Early i had saying that he was a very good talent but he had a lot of injuries and he will make his comeback. In this week we see that people can impressive in that situations (Baker) and i think Krajinovic is also so good player who is underrated by the bookies at the moment. Krajinovic won in the last round of the qualification in straight sets from Brand and he showing some good perfomance during this last week. Devilder can't showing a good perfomance. Struggling against a lot of unknowns and he showing good perfomance during the qualifications and bookies are based on that facts for the odds. I think this can be a close match, but i think Krajinovic can win this match when he is in good form (like the last week). 4/10 Krajinovic @ 1.78 Pinnacle ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mahut - Roddick Was not thinking that i like to back Roddick here on clay in this form. But this odds are a little bit to high. Mahut are also not good but Roddick had a lot or more power to win this match. When i look to the Frenchmens side i will see a player that only one tournament has playing on clay. Also he didn't impressive in this tournament. He lost in the third round against Gabashvili who is also not good on clay. Roddick showing last week a very very poor perfomance in Dusseldorf. He lost in straight sets against Soeda, Berdych and Berlocq and playing very poor. But also this odds will be a little bit to high for him. 2/10 Roddick @ 1.74 Pinnacle

[fishy25]

Re: French Open 2012

Two picks for tommorow, not all odds are online. Krajinovic - Devilder In the qualification i was wondering how good Krajinovic is playing. Early i had saying that he was a very good talent but he had a lot of injuries and he will make his comeback. In this week we see that people can impressive in that situations (Baker) and i think Krajinovic is also so good player who is underrated by the bookies at the moment. Krajinovic won in the last round of the qualification in straight sets from Brand and he showing some good perfomance during this last week. Devilder can't showing a good perfomance. Struggling against a lot of unknowns and he showing good perfomance during the qualifications and bookies are based on that facts for the odds. I think this can be a close match, but i think Krajinovic can win this match when he is in good form (like the last week). 4/10 Krajinovic @ 1.78 Pinnacle ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mahut - Roddick Was not thinking that i like to back Roddick here on clay in this form. But this odds are a little bit to high. Mahut are also not good but Roddick had a lot or more power to win this match. When i look to the Frenchmens side i will see a player that only one tournament has playing on clay. Also he didn't impressive in this tournament. He lost in the third round against Gabashvili who is also not good on clay. Roddick showing last week a very very poor perfomance in Dusseldorf. He lost in straight sets against Soeda, Berdych and Berlocq and playing very poor. But also this odds will be a little bit to high for him. 2/10 Roddick @ 1.74 Pinnacle

Wouldn't be going anywhere near Roddick at those odds to be honest. Mahut has almost beaten Roddick on grass before when they've played, and Roddick's form last week on the clay was poor at best. I'm slightly tempted by the Frenchman in all honesty, but waiting for the handicaps to come out first.

[fishy25]

Re: French Open 2012 TomDang don't even bother commenting in the threads if you're just going to criticize other people's picks. Not helpful or welcome in the slightest.

[CzechPunter]

Re: French Open 2012 Alright, let's go. Couple of what I feel are value picks. Had a brilliant AO, hoping for a repeat. (2/10) Radwanska to win the 2nd Quarter @ 3.75 with Stan James Crazy price, just compare with Pinnacle. She has just won a title this week, is having a great season, losing generally only to Azarenka, which is obviously no shame really. Bartoli is not going to cut it (sorry fishy25 :P), Ivanovic not a challenger for me, etc. etc. Kerber and Williams might be the only dangers, but come on, she would not be the underdog against either of them. (2/10) Li to win the 3rd Quarter @ 3.75 with Stan James The rest of my SJ account goes into this one, as I feel this is a bit high once again. She is the defending champion, almost beat Sharapova a few days ago - and who exactly is going to beat her? Schiavone might and Kvitova might, but I do not trust either of them at the moment. I also feel that Kvitova might get out rather early and this will be layable very easily. (2/10) Lopez to reach the R16 @ 3.00 with Sportingbet What am I missing here? Who is going to beat him in the three rounds? Serra is not competitive anymore, Kubot is much worse than the Spaniard, so is it going to be Stepanek? No, I do not believe that this is going to happen. The Czech does not really like clay that much, will play in the doubles I guess and I do not see him lasting 4 or 5 sets. This should be 1.80 imo, not 3.00 (2/10) Tipsarevic to reach the R16 @ 2.50 with Sportingbet Reversed odds once again imo, he is a top 10 player after all and, although his game does not work as well on clay, the quality of the opponents he is going to meet is fairly low. Managed to beat Berdych today, which shows that he is in a good form and he is not going to check out in a Grand Slam like he did against Wawrinka a week or so ago. (1/10) Maria Sharapova to win the FO (EW 1/2 1,2) @ 9.00 with BetVictor Slight value imo. She has been the second best player in the clay court swing behind Serena Williams and I think that the American is going to struggle here. Not fully fit from what I know and has a fairly tricky draw early on. Sharapova is above everyone else really imo and should be around 5.00 or 6.00 here in my opinion.

[Alovenac]

Re: French Open 2012 Had no time to write a analyse, but two other picks for tommorow. 3/10 Kuznetsov - Tsonga under 33 games @ 1.70 Pinnacle 4/10 Anderson -1.5 set tb. Machado @ 1.55 SBO

[fishy25]

Re: French Open 2012

Alright, let's go. Couple of what I feel are value picks. Had a brilliant AO, hoping for a repeat. (2/10) Radwanska to win the 2nd Quarter @ 3.75 with Stan James Crazy price, just compare with Pinnacle. She has just won a title this week, is having a great season, losing generally only to Azarenka, which is obviously no shame really. Bartoli is not going to cut it (sorry fishy25 :P), Ivanovic not a challenger for me, etc. etc. Kerber and Williams might be the only dangers, but come on, she would not be the underdog against either of them. (2/10) Li to win the 3rd Quarter @ 3.75 with Stan James The rest of my SJ account goes into this one, as I feel this is a bit high once again. She is the defending champion, almost beat Sharapova a few days ago - and who exactly is going to beat her? Schiavone might and Kvitova might, but I do not trust either of them at the moment. I also feel that Kvitova might get out rather early and this will be layable very easily. (2/10) Lopez to reach the R16 @ 3.00 with Sportingbet What am I missing here? Who is going to beat him in the three rounds? Serra is not competitive anymore, Kubot is much worse than the Spaniard, so is it going to be Stepanek? No, I do not believe that this is going to happen. The Czech does not really like clay that much, will play in the doubles I guess and I do not see him lasting 4 or 5 sets. This should be 1.80 imo, not 3.00 (2/10) Tipsarevic to reach the R16 @ 2.50 with Sportingbet Reversed odds once again imo, he is a top 10 player after all and, although his game does not work as well on clay, the quality of the opponents he is going to meet is fairly low. Managed to beat Berdych today, which shows that he is in a good form and he is not going to check out in a Grand Slam like he did against Wawrinka a week or so ago. (1/10) Maria Sharapova to win the FO (EW 1/2 1,2) @ 9.00 with BetVictor Slight value imo. She has been the second best player in the clay court swing behind Serena Williams and I think that the American is going to struggle here. Not fully fit from what I know and has a fairly tricky draw early on. Sharapova is above everyone else really imo and should be around 5.00 or 6.00 here in my opinion.

What are you talking about. You're telling me that a 200/1 shot won't win the French Open. Take a long look at yourself sir ;):rollin It's a value pick more than anything as she shouldn't be that high regardless of her form entering her home tournament. Was really close to taking virtually all your picks to be honest. Sharapova looks superb at the minute and if Williams is struggling, she's got a serious chance. Probably would have backed Lopez and Tipsarevic as well but Sportingbet's deposit fees make them a no go bookie for right now. Hope you're wrong about Radwanska for Bartoli's sake though ;)

[fishy25]

Re: French Open 2012 Right first couple of match bets for me then. Still waiting on a couple of lines to come out so may be back later. Not going mad with the early stages of the FO as it can be a tad unpredictable, especially in the first couple of rounds so just the 2 for me to start. Juan Martin Del Potro (-8.5 games) to beat Albert Montanes- 8/11 Bet365- (3/10) This price has shortened considerably as I'm writing this but this line is a game lower than I was expecting and even then, I'd still be tempted. Pretty big tournament for the Argentinian over in Paris as he'll be looking to move back into the top 8 in the rankings which he hasn't done since being sidelined with injury. He's coming into the slam in superb shape though, with a clay title already under his belt and a semi appearance as well to note. He's been pretty consistent all year, with his undoing usually coming in the form of Federer but he shouldn't have too many problems in beating Montanes here. The Spaniard hasn't done too much this season and although he has plenty of points to defend in Paris, this is a really tough draw for him. Cilic and Ungur have beaten him pretty comfortably in his last couple of matches, whist the likes of Ferrer and Del Potro have also hammered him. He's not really in the shape or form that we saw of him a few years back and I don't expect him to trouble Del Potro too much here. When they met a month or so back, Del Potro ran out a 6-2 6-2 winner, and a similar scoreline over 3 sets wouldn't surprise me, but the handicap looks good for Juan Martin here. Fabio Fognini (-6.5 games) to beat Adrian Mannarino- 10/11 Bet365- (2/10) Never the greatest fan of backing Fognini with the handicaps hence the tame stakes here but given the sh*t load of points he's defending, it's hard to see him not being fully motivated for the next couple of weeks. He made the quarters 12 months ago when he had to withdraw before playing Djokovic after he won that absolute epic against Montanes in which the Italian could barely walk let alone play tennis. That means however that he needs to win his first couple of matches and he'll want to do that with minimum fuss you feel. His form coming into this week isn't great by any means but that was the same last year, in which he'd lost his last 5 before making the quarter finals in Paris. Despite the home support Mannarino will have, injury and fitness concerns are a real worry for him and have severely hampered him this season. He has played just the 5 matches on clay this year, without playing anyone of real note and won just 3, all of which against guys who are well outside the top 100. He lost in qualification for Nice to a guy ranked outside the top 250 which really shows where Mannarino is right now with fitness and confidence. Even if Fognini loses a set, which he is more than capable of doing, he could still take a couple pretty comfortably and I'll back him to cover the handicap against the struggling Frenchman.

[fishy25]

Re: French Open 2012 And a final couple for me now I've seen the lines. Again not going mad with the stakes given it's early doors. Michael Berrer vs Jurgen Melzer- Over 35.5 games- 4/5 Bet365- (2/10) Was actually close to backing Berrer as a value underdog in this one but I'm opting for the overs instead. Both meetings in the past between these 2 have gone the distance, including earlier on this year in Zagreb which Berrer won. Neither guy is in outstanding form either so that leads me to think this will be a tight affair. Melzer has more quality on this surface than the German as his general movement is better, but Berrer came through qualification well, not dropping a set in the process which should give him confidence. I'd expect both guys to generally be okay on serve and I expect at least 4 sets here minimum in truth which should see the line through. Flavio Cipolla vs Stanislas Wawrinka- Over 29.5 games- 10/11 Bet365- (2/10) I'm never too confident about backing Stan in the slams to win comfortably and I think Cipolla has enough about him to trouble him in parts. He's already beaten Wawrinka in the past, and in their previous meeting in a grand slam, it went the distance with Wawrinka coming back from 2 sets down to win in the end. Cipolla has shown glimpses of what he's about on the clay despite it not being his best surface. He's managed to beat Dolgopolov and Lorenzi so he's not completely useless on the surface, and last year he beat the likes of Roddick and Rochus on the clay, and with the variety he possesses, he should be able to mix it up and disrupt Wawrinka a bit. Stan has been impressive in recent weeks, troubling the likes of Nadal, Del Potro and Djokovic, but losing to Seppi still suggests to me that there's still a tendency for Wawrinka to go missing in matches. Cipolla has had success over Wawrinka in the past, and this line doesn't even require him to win a set. A couple of tight ones should cover the line, but I think he may just be a match for Wawrinka here so I'll back the overs.

[slider24]

Re: French Open 2012 Couple of looseners. As Fishy says, the French Open throws up some strange results so I'll stick to OVERS for now. Feel a bit more confident about those. Igor Sijsling - Gilles Muller OVER 38.5 GAMES @ 5/6 BET 365 Strength (6/10) Can only see this being a long, long match. Both of them are solid types that at this level will very rarely win in straights. Muller the more established with the big serve but he's got a poor record at the French and Sijsling is rising, transferring his indoor form to clay and has the better ground game of the two and a big serve himself. Their last match on carpet was won by Sijsling 7-5 in the third of tight tussle so it's clear to see there isn't much to separate the two. Pablo Andujar - Victor Hanescu OVER 37.5 GAMES @ 10/11 BET 365 Strength (5/10) Andujar seems to play his best stuff at the French but he's not in the greatest form and I can't see him disposing of a seasoned campaigner like Hanescu without a fight. Hanescu actually leads the H2H and is more proven in Grand Slams so he might pull out a win here but he's in poor form so it would be a turn up for the books. Still, Hanescu rarely gets swatted away and puts up stern resistance win or lose so I expect him to test push Andujar pretty close tomorrow and four close sets will cover this line. :hope

[KavkaZ]

Re: French Open 2012 Tennis French Open Men Muller – Sijsling Sijsling Odds 2.0 / Unibet Igor should be well prepared for this match and I think the mistake is that the bookies favorite is minimal but his rival. H2H 2-0 for Igor and is on fast courts where Muller has always achieved the best results. Sijsdling went through the qualification and final round, beat Janowicz, who plays very similar to Muller and so is limited with this type of opponent. In addition, the balance of the French Open Gilles 2 wins and 7 defeats clearly indicates that is not his area.

[Dylan]

Re: French Open 2012 I’ve been looking forward to this tournament for a while, hopefully it’s a successful one for me and everyone else on here. Just a few small bets for today as its already been mentioned that the French throws up some interesting results, none more so than in the first round. Heidi El Tabakh vs Aleksandra Wozniak Whilst El Tabakh has spent much of her singles career doing not a lot really, this year especially the last couple of months have been a bit of a breakthrough for her as she’s won two clay court ITF tournaments in a row on the North American circuit both of which had strong fields, as well as qualified for here for the first time and overall she’s found a good level of consistency. Given this I fully expect her to give her compatriot Wozniak a decent test today and the pressure will all be on her opponent. Wozniak reached the second round here last year and could do with a repeat performance as I’ve read somewhere that she’s on the cusp of the Olympic cut off and regaining those points here should sort her out a place. I dont think she performs particularly well under pressure and unlike El Tabakh she doesn’t have much momentum going into this event (unlike last year when she came through the qualies) and it could take her a while to get up to speed. Her performances this year have been a little patchy, 7 from her 11 clay court matches have gone into 3 sets and another vs Annika Beck also went over this game line. Over 19.5 games 1.82 at Pinnacle (2.5 / 10 units) Cedric Stebe vs Joao Souza I’m quite surprised to see such a difference in odds between these two with Stebe at 1.6 and Souza at 2.3. Whilst Stebe is probably overall the better player, Souza is a much more frequent and consistent clay courter and will provide Stebe with a lot of problems today. He’s certainly achieved much more on clay than Stebe has to date and whilst his form (as well as that of his opponent) isn’t great going into this event, he will be the more confident player on this surface and that may well give him the upper hand. Souza + 4AH games 1.79 at Pinnacle (2 / 10 units) Kevin Anderson vs Rui Machado This match will be a very interesting contrast of styles between the big serving of Anderson and the technically better Machado will isn’t afraid of long ralleys and will look to get Anderson into them exploiting his weaknesses. Due to this contrast, I’m expecting both players to do well on there own serve and that this match may well be decided by one or two tiebreaks, a sight not uncommon in Andersons matches on clay. This should certainly help bump up the number of games and help these bets come in. Over 35 games 1.79 at Pinnacle (2.5 /10 units) Good luck all :hope

[Bepster]

Re: French Open 2012 Loving the positive vibe in this thread! Thanks Fishy for starting us off on the right foot. Also some really good shouts so far!

[Banner]

Re: French Open 2012 @Alovenac Not convinced on the Roddick bet he hasnt won a game on clay since 2010 and lost his last 5 so if it was me id go the other way personally

[Capricorno]

Re: French Open 2012

@Alovenac Not convinced on the Roddick bet he hasnt won a game on clay since 2010 and lost his last 5 so if it was me id go the other way personally

Venus Williams VS Ormaechea- OVER 18 - 1.91 @ Centrebet - 3 unit play Venus has generally struggled at the French Open and Ormaechea has made improvements to her game. Do not see this being a walk over. A tough first 6-4 set or so should see this line come through or at least a push. Williams has only been able to once been able to beat this over...out of all her Round 1 and 2 appearances at the French Open in the last 9 years. Also have Wozniak to win in a multi with above. - 2 unitss

[tomdang2]

@Alovenac Not convinced on the Roddick bet he hasnt won a game on clay since 2010 and lost his last 5 so if it was me id go the other way personally

There you go. Alovenac doesn't understand the concept of value, he reacted to a big name. I am just giving my constructive criticism fishy, I like to read up on views here and alovenac keeps offering up silly stuff. Roddick has never been good on clay neither has Tsonga and he hasn't provided reasoning for his latest two tips and nothing is said? You are supposed to be modding here correct me if I'm wrong?

[tomdang2]

Good stuff slider!

[Pensioner65]

Re: French Open 2012 Amazing stuff so far Slider24 & Fishy..just wow :clap As I said before these tennis threads are 'rocking' when people are on this form. Brilliant :ok

[paul21144]

Re: French Open 2012 Federer 1/2 to get further than Murray Bet365. Ridiculous bet this for me. Murray has come into the tournement with a dodgy back, and it's not his best surface by any stretch of the imagination. Also, in the last 16 Murray would have Gasquest and QF Ferrer. Federer comes in with a rich vein of form, having won a masters series tournement. Federer would have Del Potro last 16, however, he was at times very poor today vs Montanes. I'd fancy Federer to get further than Murray. Others I like the looks of are as follows- Davydenko 6/4 to beat Seppi. Davydenko isn't the player he once was, however, recently reached a semi final. I'm not a huge Seppi fan bar on grass, and feel Davydenko will have enough here. Belucci at 4/7 to beat Triocki again is another worth taking the punt on. Belucci is a clay courter, and beat JC Ferrero last week. Triocki isn't in great form. Also have a hunch Neimenen will triumph against Andreev, who looks well past his sell by date. Also like the looks of Chela to beat Baghdatis at 11/10. Chela is very accomplished on clay, and I feel he may have enough here. This match will be 4 or 5 sets though I'd imagine ! Finally, Schwank at 2/5 to beat Karlovic in my eyes is free money. Karlovic is useless on clay for starters, and I'd expect Schwank to win in 3/4 . I can't see any value in any of the other matches, too many players 1/12 - 1/20. Will give thoughts as the tournement unfolds.

[Capricorno]

Re: French Open 2012 Just took Ormachea live in play @ 8.50 on betfair to beat Venus Williams I like her confidence. She isn't showing over the top respect to Williams and she looks to have better movement around the ball. She has huge fighting spirit and it is worth a small punt.

[IAmGooner]

Re: French Open 2012 Cracking stuff so far fellas, Fishmeister cleaning up and a number of other quality bets!:ok

[Capricorno]

Re: French Open 2012

Venus Williams VS Ormaechea- OVER 18 - 1.91 @ Centrebet - 3 unit play Venus has generally struggled at the French Open and Ormaechea has made improvements to her game. Do not see this being a walk over. A tough first 6-4 set or so should see this line come through or at least a push. Williams has only been able to once been able to beat this over...out of all her Round 1 and 2 appearances at the French Open in the last 9 years. Also have Wozniak to win in a multi with above. - 2 unitss

WIN + WIN with multi + 5.7 units profit nice start to the tourney

[fishy25]

Re: French Open 2012

There you go. Alovenac doesn't understand the concept of value, he reacted to a big name. I am just giving my constructive criticism fishy, I like to read up on views here and alovenac keeps offering up silly stuff. Roddick has never been good on clay neither has Tsonga and he hasn't provided reasoning for his latest two tips and nothing is said? You are supposed to be modding here correct me if I'm wrong?

By all means be constructive, but don't simply dismiss them by claiming that the poster is 'silly' or anything along those lines. That isn't constructive I think we can all agree. It's good to have your additional insight and the more discussion we have the better, but we are all as one in the fact we want to rob the bookies so let's do that in a more respectful manner. :ok

[fishy25]

Re: French Open 2012 Looks like a terrific opening day in here. Slider with 2 cracking shouts on the overs, although I was concerned at one point 5 sets wasn't going to be enough to cover the line :loon Think I'm right in saying Dylan and Capricorno both had full houses as well so terrific stuff by all :clap:clap All of my 4 came in pretty safely in the end, although how Wawrinka dropped a set against Cipolla with the way things were going is a mystery. Really poor concentration from Stan, whilst Del Potro looked to be struggling with a bit of a leg niggle as well which I'm not too unhappy about given he'll probably be playing Berdych next week. Should have gone for Berrer though as that was where the value lay. Overs came through comfortably but should have stuck to my guns and backed him for the win - hindsight is a wonderful thing though as we all know. +7.40 for the first day though which I'd take all day long on what can be an extremely unpredictable first few days on the clay.

[InfectedBoy]

Re: French Open 2012 Awesome shouts all around, Fishy and Slider on fire:clap:clap

[Atko]

Re: French Open 2012 Some fine calls today chaps, very impressive. Here are my selections for tomorrow: - John Isner -6.5 games v Rogerio Dutra Da Silva @ 1.89 with panbet Even though Isner has tailed off since his Davis Cup exploits, this line seems a tad on the low side here. Dutra Da Silva is a Challenger player at best. He's very rarely made inroads on the tour. Seen him play a couple of times and two things were clear. He's not the fittest and he lacks a killer weapon. Knows how to play a clay court but not sure he'll be able to deal with Isner's serve. The American has no points to defend here, so I expect him to be more motivated than normal. We've seen he can play on clay, his results on this surface are decent, and I expect him to win this readily against an extremely average opponent. - Michael Llodra +3.5 games v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez @ 1.94 with panbet As regulars will know, I love fading GGL, and I'll be doing so here. Granted, he's in decent enough form, but I'm not having him so short against Llodra in France. First off, Llodra's actually fairly handy at Roland Garros. Always gives it his all in a home event and certainly has the game to get under GGL's skin. He beat him two years ago on grass in their only meeting and although the clay is a lot slower, his tactics will be much the same. GGL has a nice-looking game but as soon as the pressure is on, he often collapses. Especially in slams, as he has issues with concentration. I considered just taking Llodra to win but he could well lose but take a set 6-1 against a player who checks out. Think it offers more security. Happy enough to fire on the serve-and-volley loving Frenchman. I have a couple more that I'm mulling over but will stick with these for the time being. :hope

[Psycho]

Re: French Open 2012 Victoria Azarenka -8 vs Alberta Brianti. 1.85 @ Nordicbet (6/10) I wonder how is Brianti gonna win a game in this match. Huge occasion for the Italian to play #1 on Chatrier. Brianti has no weapons to deal with Azarenka and being this a Grand Slam match I don't think Vika would want to waste energy and mess around. She dropped just one game against Brianti in their last meeting which is most significant as it was played last year. The previous two which were a bit closer had been played in 2006 and 2007. I believe there will be a bagel set, so prefer handicap over unders but both should work. Roberta Vinci - 3.5 vs Sofia Arvidsson. 1.85 @ Nordicbet (6/10) There are two big problems for Arvidsson. First of all, she spent all of her energy in Brussels last week and could not take the win against Halep who was offering. And secondly, she can't run. Vinci will be a nightmare match-up. The Italian uses lots of slices and dropshots. Arvidsson will totally hate this. Vinci is 5-0 and 10-0 in sets against Arvidsson and I can clearly see where these stats come from. Arvidsson has managed to win just 8 games in two matches on clay against Vinci. Christina McHale -2 vs Kiki Bertens. 1.79 @ Pinnacle (6/10) McHale should fancy her chances to do some early damage. Bertens has won a International series title on clay, that was in Fes earlier this year but the field was terrible in Morroco. McHale with more experience at this level and more importantly she has got smarter game. Defense is outstanding, movement likewise. Besides she has been training a lot on clay. Can't see Bertens winning a baseline battle with player like McHale. She can be a disaster when it comes to closing, so fingers crossed there won't be any problems in that regard for McHale today. Tamarine Tanasugarn vs Carla Suarez Navarro. Under 16.5 games. 1.83 @ Pinnacle (5/10) The odds for this match might surprise a few but there is a reason for this. Tammy hates clay and plays just about once a year. Her last two losses in Paris: 6-1, 6-1 against Hantuchova and 6-1, 6-2 against Ivanovic. She has lost 6-3, 6-0 against Kleybanova in French Open not so long ago as well. Navarro is very good clay court player, she has made last 8 here a few years back. Don't think she will drop more than 4 games. Tanasugarn just won't be able to win baseline battles, she doesn't move that well at her age and can't hit ball hard enough. Would have better chance on grass. Vania King to beat Galina Voskoboeva. 2.29 @ Pinnacle (5/10) Fancy King as an underdog in this one. She made R3 last year and despite being mostly recognized as a doubles player, can play good ball game at Slams. Voskoboeva has not played much in Paris and has not beaten much either. I don't like her on clay. She is a big hitter, but clay will force her to move more, longer rallies and that will put her out of her comfort zone. King might lack in power but she can defend, can run all day long and be sure, if there will be long rallies, the feisty American will win most of them. Voskoboeva really hates long exchanges and that will drive her mad. King has beaten her on hard as well, so I definitely fancy her chances on clay. Lauren Davis vs Mona Barthel. Over 18 games. 1.90 @ Nordicbet (4/10) Barthel has been losing on purpose quite a bit lately ever she got overrated after her title win. She has lost her last two matches, one of those was against Panova. Seriously? Saw that one and the attitude was really bad and she has been like that for some time now. Davis had nice qualies (apart from one poor set) and I think she can get some gifts today. 18 games is a bit short here as Barthel is going to mess around again and who knows maybe will decide to lose. Won't be the first time. In either scenario there should be at least 18 games (6-3, 6-3 would be a push).

[Atko]

Re: French Open 2012 Okay, in the end there will only be one more bet, unless things change overnight: - Blaz Kavcic to beat Lleyton Hewitt @ 1.80 with panbet I just don't see how Hewitt can turn up here and win having not played competitvely since February. Kavcic is no world beater but Hewitt really is on the downswing these days. If this had been Wimbledon or Melbourne you could maybe see him ekeing it out but he's never really got on with Paris. Just fear for Rusty in a long match on clay, which this could be. Kavcic showed lots of potential a few years ago (he beat Hewitt in 2010, their only meeting) but hasn't really kicked on. He hasn't got much consistency or pop on serve but he's a good sparrer and my gut feeling is that he'll outlast the Australian. He's been winning matches at Challenger level, which is better than not playing any matches at all. Reckon Hewitt will have one eye on the grass of England and with that in mind, I'll play the Slovenian in this one. :hope