ufc 146 opinions

[superfoo]

Anybody any thoughts on ufc 146? my bet of the night is nelson to beat herman 5/11 at lads 55 points. cant be bothered to break it down too much as it could pan out in many ways. But for me although losing 3 of his last 4 (all against top opposition whilst showing the best chin in the world) Nelson is simply better than Herman in all departments. I only see a lucky punch preventing a Nelson win and I think his chin is too god for that! I fancied Barboza massively but so do the books and 1/5 is way too short in mma. Smae applies for Dos Santos who I consider the best in the world but at 1/3 for the stoppage it holds no appeal. The value bet here i believe is a the mir sub at generally 6/1 but cant back against JDS though I feel Mir is massively underestimated in this fight. Not seen any footage of Del Rosario but his record is good a but cant calll the fight with Mocic. Fancy Velasquez to spark Bigfoot Silva but could go the other way. Silva mustve been shhok up massively for Cormier to deck him 4+ times...but that doesnt look so bad now. Can see either landing a bomb. Was initially tempted witha Silva win (7/2 sky)due to his hands and vlasquez chin against congo and coming off a big ko loss to JDS. tHAT SAID i FANCY vELASQUEZ BUT 4/6 PP for the Velasquez stoppage appeals more at the moment. (The guy is 1/4 and this is the most likely outcome so if you afncy Cain get on!) Struve v Johnson is tricky. Is Skyscraper chhoses to trade its lights out imo. But its a given thast if Struve gets it to the floor he should win. Struve seems to get confident striking at the moment (hes not bad at it) but Johnson is one of THE hardest hittters. Tough to call but I THINK sTRUVE MAY get cocky and trade and I can see Johnson knocking him out maybee....lol Still unsure:)

[superfoo]

Re: ufc 146 opinions eally keen on Texeira as well but preety sure the oodds will reflect it. Maycome back with more when the undercard linews drop. opinions please:)

[Ronnie]

Re: ufc 146 opinions I can't resist a bit of Frank Mir action, the price of 4/1 is just too big to ignore, sure Mir ducks as he punches leaving himself open to a JDS uppercut, he was in mighty trouble with big Nog until big Nog went for the sub instead of the G n P finish. I just can't rule out Mir who is still improving and may surprise a few people tonight. Frank Mir to win 4/1 @ Skybet

[superfoo]

Re: ufc 146 opinions Junior dos Santos (14-1, 8-0 UFC) vs. Frank Mir (16-5, 14-5 UFC) On paper this looks a nightmare for Mir and the odds reflect it. Mir has been hurt on numerous occasions and has never got past the UFCs big hitters and usually ends up on his back when he comes against them – and JDS can bang. Mir though should not be dismissed so easily. He has an extremely high level of Jui Jitsu and his stand up has improved a lot but is still nowhere near the level of that of his opponent. The obvious selection is a KO for Dos Santos. But at 1/5 outright and 1/3 for the stoppage I cant really back that for value, especially in a ufc heavyweight title fight. Mir is generally 4/1outright but better value may lie in the 6/1 for Mir to win via submission. Although I see JDS knocking Mir out, as an interest I will have a minimum punt on this. The theory being that there is a chance that Mir can get JDS down to where he can work his subs. But more danger could come if Mir is knocked down and JDS goes for the finish and maybe gets a little careless as both Lesnar and Big Nog did against Mir. Recommended bet Mir by sub 6/1 generally. Cain Velasquez (9-1, 7-1 UFC) vs. Antonio Silva (16-3, 0-0 UFC) This is a big ask on his UFC debut for Silva who gained prominence with his victory over Fedor. Although huge, Silva seems to have a somewhat dodgy beard, as displayed by Cormier decking him 5 times in his last fight and even Kyle decking him and to some extent Werdum. If Cain was fit and primed this would be a lot more straight forward but an absence of 18 months does bring second thoughts. Silva can also hit and Cain had been hurt bad by Kongo before being smashed by Dos Santos. This combined makes it a no brainer for me to avoid the 1/4 on Cain outright. The way Cormier beat Silva so easily was to use agility and speed to get inside and throw hard, accurate shots. I see Cain being able to duplicate the strategy and unlike Cormier will probably be willing to ground and pound Silva if he puts him down. Considering I see this as the most likely outcome I thing 4/6 is quite generous. Recommended bet Velasquez via TKO, KO, DQ at 4/6 Paddy Power Stefan Struve (23-5, 7-3 UFC) vs. Lavar Johnson (17-5, 2-0 UFC) This one could be over pretty quick as Johnson is a beast and possibly hits harder than anyone in the UFC. He is on a roll since his arrival in UFC being the first to stop Beltran and then smashing through Pat Barry both within a round, if this guy has you hurt he pounces. However his well known Achilles heel is on the ground and his sub defence – all four of his losses having come this way. Struve is still learning and improving at 24 and seems still to be filling out his lanky frame. Struve is not the best at shooting so in order to get the fight to the mat it is more likely he will try to clinch and then trip. If he can do this he should be able to finish whilst using his freakishly long limbs to control his opponent and work the sub. The big worry though, will he be able to avoid Johnsons bombs – especially early on in order to do this. For me its a pick em fight on the basis that if it stays standing Johnson wins, if it goes to the ground Struve wins. Two bets here catch my eye. A first round ko for Johnson (11/5 skybet) or a submission win for Struve (8/5 Ladbrokes). Im going with the latter though a saver on the former may prove prudend as it could well be highlight reel. Recommended bet Struve by submission at 8/5 Ladbrokes Dave Herman (21-3, 1-1 UFC) vs. Roy Nelson (16-7, 3-3 UFC) Herman made a splash in the UFC with his unorthodox attacks but I simply see Nelson as better in every department stand-up, ground stamina etc. Despite losses in 3 of his last 4 fights they were all against elite opposition and during those fights he displayed one of the best chins in all sports. I see this being a fight that Big Country should dominate and is my bet of the event. Cant predict the method as I can see Roy winning in a variety of ways but after his recent run of losses it is important that Nelson prove himself and comes out with the ‘W’. It is also worth noting how badly gassed Herman was in the second round against Struve which contributed to his downfall and a bollocking from Dana White. If you were to base it on opponents (which is never a good idea in UFC, or boxing for that matter as styles make fights) but you could follow the logic of Nelson bt Struve – Struve bt Herman, so, Nelson beats Herman. Simple right? Maybe not! Recommended Bet Nelson bt Herman 10/21 Ladbrokes Stipe Miocic (8-0, 2-0 UFC) vs. Shane del Rosario (11-0, 0-0 UFC) Two undefeated guys square off here in what could kick off the main card in good style. In his best win Rosario handled Levar Johnsons power on route to submitting him. He has decent hands and is decent on the ground as well as never going to the judges. He is a smart fighter and though his hands are good he knew he needed Johnson on the mat and therefore seems pretty sensible. Miocic didn’t particularly impress me against a limited Beltran but scored a big KO over the Brit DeFreis in his last fight. Miocic is a boxer/wrestler. I would give him the edge in power with the hands but Rosario is probably better on the ground. I slightly favour del Rosario due to ground game if he can get it there and at odds against I think he is worth a punt. Recommended Bet Del Rosario bt Miocic 11/8 Bet365