England > Antepost > BlueSQ Bet Prem 2012/13

[Darran]

Re: England > Antepost > BlueSQ Bet Prem 2012/13

FGR? Despite their signings I really don't see them finishing above us' date=' although I think their financial model is a helluva lot more "honest" than the Mansfield one![/quote'] For me they have one of the best strikeforces in the league and given their defence was very solid last year I dont think they have to improve that much to get involved. Manager does concern me though, but otherwise they are title contenders for me and would back them to finish abover Wrexham.

[Darran]

Re: England > Antepost > BlueSQ Bet Prem 2012/13

What's wrong with Mansfield financial setup? They seem pretty stable especially after they secured the ownership of their ground last season which their owner had admitted had been a real obstacle before they could really 'go for it'.

I suspect there is something going on since some old board members set up a new Mansfield to play this season. There does seem something slightly dodgy about the guy in charge.

[maliniok]

Re: England > Antepost > BlueSQ Bet Prem 2012/13 Thoughts on Cambridge United gents? Last season they started pretty well and faded off in later stages and a quick glance at their match report in today's NLP tells me that Jez George believes that due to his signings they will have more strength in depth and they will 'go for it'.

[Shipsupstreets]

Re: England > Antepost > BlueSQ Bet Prem 2012/13 They're an interesting prospect, maliniok, and they've already been mentioned in dispatches on here by Kevshat. One or two managers in the section have also expressed the feeling that Cambridge U are the dangerous outsiders this season, and with 16s still available they'll have their backers. The squad - which has been growing together for a while - does look stronger than last season and Jez George has done a terrific job on what has been until recently relatively limited resources. Having said that, I can't see them breaking into the top 5 just yet. Willmott and Moke will be terrific on their day but I doubt they'll be consistent performers, and the are still missing they kind of goalscorer that other sides take for granted. Though the price is attractive, I think they're a notch behind Luton, Grimsby and Mansfield (who I see as the main contenders), and not as strong as Wrexham and Forest Green.

[kevshat]

Re: England > Antepost > BlueSQ Bet Prem 2012/13

and the are still missing they kind of goalscorer that other sides take for granted.

That's the cast iron point for me. As it was when I first mentioned them I still think they are a goalscorer light. Fix that and I think they are very much potential contenders. Until then I think Ships has it spot on.

[Darran]

Re: England > Antepost > BlueSQ Bet Prem 2012/13 Agree with Kev and Ships they might break into the top 5, but hard to see them being a top 3 side at the moment.

[maliniok]

Re: England > Antepost > BlueSQ Bet Prem 2012/13 Alger's previews part one now up on Conference website. http://www.bluesqfootball.com/story/0,20970,13040_7928235,00.html

[Shipsupstreets]

Re: England > Antepost > BlueSQ Bet Prem 2012/13

Alger's previews part one now up on Conference website. http://www.bluesqfootball.com/story/0,20970,13040_7928235,00.html

It's always diverting to read the sponsor's thoughts on the section, though I'm tempted to start a book on where Alger will be next taking his pre-match ice bath (as at Hayes & Yeading at the start of last season) after one of his relegation selections does better than expected. I wonder if he'll be backing Barrow in his own firm's Bottom 4 market - an apparently generous 6/4 as Ebbsfleet United (who he has to survive) are rated at Evs? It could be a decent call as they haven't got a full squad signed yet and they don't look to have many goals in them. There isn't much value in the relegation market, and Hyde's summer woes are fully priced in - perhaps rather too fully as they have started pre-season in a chirpy and coherent fashion, although I don't think they'll be pulling up any trees in the style of Braintree last season. It's always worth keeping an eye out for a relegation outsider where there isn't much room for manoeuvre in the player market and there is the potential for the wheels to come off, and I think Lincoln City at 14s fall into this category, although I won't be playing as there are enough sides who look in a worse state at the moment, albeit at much less generous prices.

[maliniok]

Re: England > Antepost > BlueSQ Bet Prem 2012/13 Alan Alger of Blue Square speaketh again (pt two) http://www.bluesqfootball.com/story/0,20970,13040_7949987,00.html

[Shipsupstreets]

Re: England > Antepost > BlueSQ Bet Prem 2012/13 Luton Town and Mansfield Town continue to head the markets by a margin and there is good reason for that: they have best squads by far. There will be an interesting contrast in styles, with Luton continuing to play the better football. With the threat of a big spender taken away (until the Newport takeover, that is!) their favouritism does have some appeal. Addpea bagged the 4/1 when it was available and that looks a very decent price. Defensively they look to have a more rugged appearance and so long as they have the midfield who can screen them properly when they don't have the ball (a Chris Hargreaves type that Paul Buckle likes) they should have the platform to exploit a pretty special attack (in Andre Gray they have the best player in the section - this season's Tubbs/Vardy). Paul Buckle is a good choice of manager. I have a few doubts about his inflexibility when things aren't going well, but that's mainly based on what he did in the Conference at Torquay - he'll have learned a bit since then. One thing he does bring is the ability to inspire the troops, to get them to believe in his project. This is not an easy talent to acquire but Buckle has it. It's a mix of man-management, tactical nous and blood'n'thunder speeches in the dressing room. Steve Burr is quite good at this, and Liam Watson also, but Buckle does it better than anyone. In an strange way, he's the BlueSQ Prem's Harry Rednapp. They'll surely go well. The contrast with Mansfield Town is pretty stark. Behind their strong-arm approach is plenty of micro-management - they'll be well drilled and the kind of side that no one wants to face. Indeed, opposing teams won't fancy going to visit either side, but they'll see a bit of a chance against Luton: keep them quiet for 25 mins and their fans will turn. Against a Mansfield at the top of their game, the waves of relentless attacks will be wearing. Paul Cox has done a brilliant job in turning them around, though I am a touch baffled by the sheer number of signings he's made. I can understand bringing in Andy Owens from Southport to sort out the troublesome left back slot and add the weapon of the long throw, but Cox has to keep a lot of bodies happy. When he was at Eastwood Town with some money to spend he operated with a similarly overweight squad of players. It'll no doubt get slimmed down over the autumn, but even so it's a potentially difficult act to pull off with full-timers as squads can split and unhappy islands of bench-warmers can form. Paul Cox must know this, however, and I'm pretty sure he'll be choreographing the first XI in much finer detail than Buckle. It'll be a game based on some grace, some style, but mostly strength and power. If Buckle is the section's Rednapp, Cox is its Tony Pulis. So what to do with the prices? Too short for me to think that either Mansfield or Luton are worth a meaty single, though with more attractive prices available in other sections I've added both in accas. But there is one EW single I do like: 9/1 Grimsby Town. Until Fleetwood Town and Crawley Town appeared on the scene, the Prem went through a spell of mildly surprising winners: D&R, Morecambe, Aldershot and Burton Albion all came out of the antepost pack (I remember turning my nose up on here at someone suggesting Aldershot at 28s), and even Stevenage were available at 10s the season they made it. For me, Grimsby are best placed to pull off that kind of shock. Like Mansfield, they have picked up a non-league specialist management team who needed to do some major weeding of the squad. I'd say that what Rob Scott and Paul Hurst have had to do is the greater job and the fact that they almost turned a squad of flabby pros who didn't want to be in Division 5 to a play-off outfit is one of the efforts of last season. As I've said before, they are a superb results-driven management team with a win ratio that stands comparison with anyone else. The best in the business? At non-league, I'd say so. You can sniff at the good cop/bad cop routine but that's mainly for the media and to wind up other clubs - within the squad things seem pretty solid. They've signed well and the first team stands comparison with anyone in the section. Derek McNiven could prove a crucial signing in midfield. Aswad Thomas is pretty useful at left back and Sam Hatton still has plenty to offer at this level. What they haven't got at their disposal is the depth of resources of the market-leaders. The squad is relatively light and a crop of long-term injuries will do for their top three chances. There is also the possibility that the formations they've used in recent friendlies have been preparation for life after Liam Hearn's departure. Losing him would be a massive blow, though it should free up some funds. A danger later in the season is that Scott and Hurst might get a call from higher up the food change, from a relegation-haunted Barnsley or some such. But as things stand they look the best value to break into the top 3 and if the winds are fair they could go all the way. I haven't much bothered with the remaining playoff places - there are six or seven teams who will be fighting over the last two slots, but if I were pushed to name a top five I'd go: Luton, Mansfield, Grimsby, Wrexham, Forest Green Rovers.

[maliniok]

Re: England > Antepost > BlueSQ Bet Prem 2012/13 Good post Ships - one thing I may disagree with is the judgement of Gray. Although there is no doubt he's talented and has got potential from the few games I saw him there is something of a conceited cock about him. The kind of guy who will throw the towel and blame the world when things don't go his way. Anyway, we will see. Thanks for the post, it's very useful.

[kevshat]

Re: England > Antepost > BlueSQ Bet Prem 2012/13

Good post Ships - one thing I may disagree with is the judgement of Gray. Although there is no doubt he's talented and has got potential from the few games I saw him there is something of a conceited cock about him. The kind of guy who will throw the towel and blame the world when things don't go his way. Anyway' date=' we will see. Thanks for the post, it's very useful.[/quote'] Where have you got that impression from?

[Darran]

Im with kev. I'm struggling to see where you have got that impression from. Sent from my HTC Desire S using PL Forum

[maliniok]

Re: England > Antepost > BlueSQ Bet Prem 2012/13 I saw him in 2 games - both against York - the 1-2 home defeat and the final. In both games Gray scored two early goals and I thought that with time his workrate decreased. I remember when Wimbledon signed Andre Blackman - pure footballing talent who could take on players easily. I said to my mates there was something about him that made him look like a spoilt baby and unfortunately I was right. Hopefully this time I'm wrong and Gray will become a hero of Luton faithfull by taking them up to the FL. EOT.

[kevshat]

Re: England > Antepost > BlueSQ Bet Prem 2012/13

I saw him in 2 games - both against York - the 1-2 home defeat and the final. In both games Gray scored two early goals and I thought that with time his workrate decreased. I remember when Wimbledon signed Andre Blackman - pure footballing talent who could take on players easily. I said to my mates there was something about him that made him look like a spoilt baby and unfortunately I was right. Hopefully this time I'm wrong and Gray will become a hero of Luton faithfull by taking them up to the FL. EOT.

You have to put everything into perspective though. His work rate probably did lower in the first game against York but it must be remembered that for the final hour of that first game we never had the football at all so there isn't a lot he could have done with that. I saw no sign of his work rate in the final diminishing. Him pressurising the defenders led to misplaced passes which set up both the McAllister and Kissock chances in the second half. While Gray isn't the finished article, it must be remembered he is only 21 but what impressed me about him most is his desire to score goals. I've not seen that in any Luton player for a good while, and we've had some very good goalscorers down here. It is that desire and hard work that sets him out as the special player I think he'll be more so than his physical attributes of pace and power which makes him good too. He isn't afraid to shoot from anywhere on the field and he seems to do that if he's scored 5 goals or missed 5 sitters - another good attribute to have - so to see him described as 'cocky and throw the towel in' sort of player surprises me. Personally I'm with Ships and I'd go as far as to say whichever player scores more goals than him in the BSP this season will be the top scorer in the division.

[kevshat]

Re: England > Antepost > BlueSQ Bet Prem 2012/13

Luton Town and Mansfield Town continue to head the markets by a margin and there is good reason for that: they have best squads by far. There will be an interesting contrast in styles' date=' with Luton continuing to play the better football. With the threat of a big spender taken away (until the Newport takeover, that is!) their favouritism does have some appeal. Addpea bagged the 4/1 when it was available and that looks a very decent price. Defensively they look to have a more rugged appearance and so long as they have the midfield who can screen them properly when they don't have the ball (a Chris Hargreaves type that Paul Buckle likes) they should have the platform to exploit a pretty special attack (in Andre Gray they have the best player in the section - this season's Tubbs/Vardy). Paul Buckle is a good choice of manager. I have a few doubts about his inflexibility when things aren't going well, but that's mainly based on what he did in the Conference at Torquay - he'll have learned a bit since then. One thing he does bring is the ability to inspire the troops, to get them to believe in his project. This is not an easy talent to acquire but Buckle has it. It's a mix of man-management, tactical nous and blood'n'thunder speeches in the dressing room. Steve Burr is quite good at this, and Liam Watson also, but Buckle does it better than anyone. In an strange way, he's the BlueSQ Prem's Harry Rednapp. They'll surely go well.[/quote'] Excellent post Ships, as always. I can only really overlap on the Luton thoughts and I think you are pretty much spot on there. Defensively we've never had too many problems and have been good in that area ever since we were relegated. There are two very good reasons for that in that we have the best keeper in the division by a long way and for probably 10-15 of our 23 home games nobody puts any attacks together because they are too scared of getting humped. We can all see the quality of the strike force which has been put together. That has to be the best four strikers in the division and even the likes of Dan Walker lower down the ladder has really been showing his quality in pre-season too. As I said right at the start of the piece when I first assessed our chances that hard as nails midfielder is what we lacked. I'm still not convinced we've signed him or if we have I've not seen the evidence in the few friendlies I've been to but one thing we have signed in midfield is a very special looking player in Yasir Kasim. No idea how we've got him down here from Brighton for 6 months but he looks a real quality footballer to me. Always wants the ball, rarely wastes it but has such great balance and awareness. I'd liken him to Lee Fowler at Fleetwood only he looks more mobile than that. I'm certain he'll set this division alight this season. One thing I have noticed in the few friendlies I've been to so far, and while I take no notice of results in friendlies I think the pattern of play can be taken out of them, is our workrate without the ball in the middle of the park. There were signs of it towards the end of last season and it seems to be a clear plan now. We're closing the ball down a lot quicker and in numbers which could make up for a lack of a 'horrible' midfielder for the want of a better term. All in all I'd say this would be our best chance of winning this thing yet but I'm sure we're not the only ones saying that.

[Darran]

Re: England > Antepost > BlueSQ Bet Prem 2012/13 Here is the full preview I have written Blue Square Premier For the fourth season running Luton are favourites, which isn’t a surprise! Last year I was very keen to take them on as I thought their squad looked weaker than the season before, especially up front. This term they have had a pretty big overhaul and new manager Paul Buckle has freshened things up, which was needed. Crucially, they seem to be solid up front. They have picked up Jon Shaw who has been prolific for Gateshead in the last couple of seasons, which is a massive signing. Former manager Gary Brabin brought Andre Gray from Hinckley just before he left and what a signing that proved to be. I was really impressed with him as he proved in the play-off final that he isn’t scared of having a shot from anywhere. That sort of confidence is crucial, especially at a club like Luton where the pressure to gain promotion is so high. They look a team full of goals and it is really hard to see them not finishing in the top three. After losing out in the play-offs they will be desperate to finish top to avoid a repeat and I give them the best chance yet of doing so. The final question regarding Luton is whether or not the price of 3/1 is value? For me it is just about right and although I would stick them into multiple bets, I think for singles the value is elsewhere. Mansfield are second in the betting and are a team I like a lot. They showed glimmers of what a great side they were last term and were in cracking form in the second half of the season to end up in the play-offs. The fact they were favourites for promotion was proof of how well they were doing. Paul Cox has done good work to keep hold of Matt Green and has made plenty of decent signings over the summer. They should improve on last season’s efforts and, considering they don’t need to find much improvement to be title contenders, they should be bang there come April. I definitely want them on side at 5/1. The other team I want to back is Forest Green Rovers. They had a really solid season last time and were missing main striker Reece Styche who was injured for a fair part of it. Not only is he fit again, but they have made a few really decent signings to increase their strength up front, which in my view gives them one of the best front lines in the league. As they had one of the best defences already, if they can start scoring goals then they can be title contenders. I do have a bit of a concern over manager David Hockaday, but at 9/1 they offer decent each-way value for me. Cambridge United have added some quality players to the squad during the summer and if they can keep everyone fit then they could end up in the play-offs as well. They could be a team worth backing once the handicap prices come out. Steve Burr continues to do a fantastic job at Kidderminster but a lack of money is always going to hinder them and they will have done really well if they can reach the play-offs. For the first time in a while relegation betting is available. Hyde are favourites in the market and I initially thought they were doomed to relegation as their manager left at the end of last season. However they haven’t lost as many players as I thought and have got one or two decent men in. Manager Scott McNiven is massively unproven and that is a concern but if they play some of the football they did when winning the Blue Square North last season, they might actually survive. I think AFC Telford, Nuneaton and Tamworth will all struggle but I don’t see a lot of value in their prices. Barrow looked a poor side in the last few months of last season as they struggled to even score a goal let alone win a game. Their squad looks pretty weak and Bet Victor’s 5/2 is just enough to tempt me to play. Lincoln struggled after relegation from the Football League last season and they still look in a pretty poor state. They have a lack of money at the club and I get the feeling it is going to be another tough season for them. The suspicion is there will be four worse teams come the end of the season, but at 16/1 (Bet Victor) I think it’s worth having a small bet.

[maliniok]

Re: England > Antepost > BlueSQ Bet Prem 2012/13 Luton 1 Leyton 0 - no, I didn't make it up the M1 to the game but I think that another clean sheet against a higher division side is a remarkable achievement. Did you see the game Kevshat? If so, could you share your thoughts?

[kevshat]

Re: England > Antepost > BlueSQ Bet Prem 2012/13

Luton 1 Leyton 0 - no' date=' I didn't make it up the M1 to the game but I think that another clean sheet against a higher division side is a remarkable achievement. Did you see the game Kevshat? If so, could you share your thoughts?[/quote'] I did make it to the game yep. Didn't think much to Leyton Orient if I'm honest although it does need to be factored in that we're a week further on in our preparation. We should've been away and gone at half time but didn't take our chances. Shaw came on at half time and scored with a header which was his first touch about a minute into the second half. We had a couple more chances but it was clear in the second half we're just wanting next week to come along. Was literally going through the motions for the last half hour. Orient missed a couple of chances in the second half but we were always pretty comfortable. It looks like Ronnie Henry will start alongside Kovacs at the back which will be interesting. I would also hazard a guess at saying Shaw will start on the bench next week too. One thing I must say is prior to yesterday I was convinced Andre Gray would be our top scorer this season but I'm not so convinced now. The positions Shaw took up in the box were so impressive it's easy to see why he scores as many as he does. I'm glad I'm not a defender against our attack this season :ok.

[Darran]

Re: England > Antepost > BlueSQ Bet Prem 2012/13

One thing I must say is prior to yesterday I was convinced Andre Gray would be our top scorer this season but I'm not so convinced now. The positions Shaw took up in the box were so impressive it's easy to see why he scores as many as he does. I'm glad I'm not a defender against our attack this season :ok.

The fact you have Shaw has put me off backing Gray for top scorer because I think it will be hard to split them. As I said in my preview the one area you needed improving from the start of last season was your forward line and its at a different level this summer.

[kevshat]

Re: England > Antepost > BlueSQ Bet Prem 2012/13

The fact you have Shaw has put me off backing Gray for top scorer because I think it will be hard to split them. As I said in my preview the one area you needed improving from the start of last season was your forward line and its at a different level this summer.

I still suspect Gray will score more than Shaw (particularly if Shaw doesn't start to begin with) because Shaw looks like a player who needs excellent service. He will get that of course but Gray can grab goals out of nothing and can create his own goals which would just about give him the edge to me. I think he will feed on a lot of flick ons in behind from Rendell and Shaw too. I agree though it has become a lot tighter and probably not a betting proposition since we signed Shaw.

[county81]

Re: England > Antepost > BlueSQ Bet Prem 2012/13 Probably 12 months too soon for my team Stockport although i wouldnt rule out a late play off push. Only bet i've had so far is Danny Hattersley for top goalscorer with BetVictor at 40's. Looks an out and out goalscorer.

[bartonbank]

[kevshat]

Re: England > Antepost > BlueSQ Bet Prem 2012/13

Wrexham Preview Despite sitting 3^rd in the bookies’ lists at a general 7/1, the chances of Wrexham have already, it seems, been written off. The reason? Well comparing the players out with the players in is pretty much the whole reason…. And we still have that keeper!! At the back Maxwell (keeper), Obeng (FB), Knight-Percival (CB) have all departed since the start of last season. Midfield? Fowler and Tolley. Forwards? Speight and Pogba. All doom and gloom. Well, not quite. Maxwell barely got a look in once the season was really up and running, Obeng went mid-season and the loan replacement barely played either and KP went off the boil once it was known he was off. Midfield? Fowler has all the skill in the world but is divisive in the dressing room, as shown by the ridiculous number of clubs he has been through. Tolley? A box to box player but doesn’t really do much in either box; free kicks and storming shots from distance is his game, and Morrell, the player-manager, only saw fit to offer him a six months deal. Up front? Speight was cracking for us; his goals say that and a definite loss, but a look at his record shows he has only ever had a season like that once before (strangely enough at Mansfield, his new club) and Pogba, although a nuisance to most defenders, is very much a rough diamond and I was really surprised Crewe took him up to L1 as he is nowhere near L1 standard yet. Players in? Well, not as many for a start, which bolsters those who say we may be nowhere near the top this season. At the back we have signed Coughlin, released by Tranmere, as the keeper to back up/challenge Mayebi, and Riley, a centre back who was a big part of the Mansfield team that reached the playoffs last season. Both have looked assured in pre-season, especially Riley. Midfield? Well, no-one yet, although Keates, who was carrying an injury for much of last season looks far fitter now, is a welcome sight and a young lad called Collbeck (two goals in four appearances last season) will improve. However, the strong rumour tonight is Danny Rose will be joining on short term loan from Fl££twood and he is the young creative midfielder we probably lack at the moment, although Glenn Little is a treat to watch whilst his legs hold out! Finally, up front Ormerod dropped down a fair way to join up with his old mate Morrell. Although never prolific the pre-season has shown the football brain he has and he will provide loads of ammo for others. However, standing back, the signings may not look as impressive as our rivals. So, do I agree with the doom-mongers? Trying to be as impartial as possible, not quite. Firstly I don’t see any team running away from the rest of the league as both Fl££twood and we did last season. Secondly, although we have not signed as many as our rivals we already have some players to slip effortlessly into the gaps left by those who have left. The FB to take over from Obeng is a young lad known as ‘Trigger’, Declan Walker. He likes getting forward and is a pretty decent defender. He undoubtedly would have stepped into the gap left by Obeng when he left but he was injured for all of last season. Pre-season has probably got him the start and he is another one out of the wonderful Centre of Excellence we have (15, I think, to league and Premiership clubs last season). Up front, a player I have mentioned in other posts, Rob Ogelby. He has scored four in pre-season games and has the pace defenders in this league hate. Last half season was a time for him to settle into the squad but, whenever I saw him, he looked as if he had something about him and scored at decent goal at Cambridge. I am not saying I would turn my nose up at another striker, but Ogelby is definitely one to watch. So, will I back us at 8/1? Frankly in this league I don’t think any of the market leaders are value and so, at present, I haven’t played on any team. As Kev will tell you I am happy with our standard wager for “us” to finish above “them” . Our pre-season was pretty fine and dandy, playing some decent passing stuff, and the “1^st X1” only lost once, against Blackpool. Set against this was a 3-1 thumping of Kilmarnock and a dicking of Coventry’s first team 4-1 (their goal in the last minute or so). I am glad we did not have a “money spinner” against a Premiership team this time and I am sure Morrell, with no real injury concerns to come out of the games, is happy with the way it went. However, one punt I am making involving Wrexham is set out below. TOP SCORER. Despite their shortness in the market I don’t see any of the Luton forwards topping the league as, frankly, they will be sharing out Luton’s goals between them. Hearn and Green will have their followers but frankly, at 10’s or so, that is too short for me. Styche or Vieira? I played on Styche at 40’s as I could not see why he is twice the price of Vieira. However the main pick I put up is Rob Ogelby. He has hit the ground running and will be the forward with real pace who a wily old warrior like Ormerod, or a bullocking forward like Danny Wright (better than Pogba at creating for partners…but watch your temper, Danny boy!) will enjoy setting up. And the price? Well, there is 40/1 out there, which is already an e/w price but good old Victor Chandler has taken his eye off the ball here; they have him at a whopping 100/1. Even with all Wrexham-tinted specs off 40/1 is a tad big so 100/1 is way overpriced and he is definitely an e/w play. Good luck to one and all this season and hope this helps.

We can double it if you want :ok