handball mathematical approach

[paparainbow]

lets say that someone wants to modelize handball. apparently they cannot approach it as football, since a poisson approach is not correct (goals are far more frequent). Using a basketball approach (handicap-total goals) seems to be rational, but the problem is moving from 2way odds (handicap-draw no bet) to 3way odds (1-x-2). so, does anyone have any idea hot to approach this?

[lunatism]

Re: handball mathematical approach i'm always up for a challenge - although i'm not sure who this question is directed at? Handball experts or just the general bettors on here? If it's the experts, sorry, can't help. And if it's the general bettors on here, you should probably explain a bit about what handball is (i've always thought it was football but with hands - everyone's a goalkeeper???), and the rules, how it works, etc...because i'm pretty sure i'm not the only one who is in the dark about this sport! :welcometo PL, and look forward to your contributions in the future!

[froment]

Re: handball mathematical approach

you should probably explain a bit about what handball is (i've always thought it was football but with hands - everyone's a goalkeeper???)' date=' and the rules, how it works, etc...[/quote'] No, there's only one goalkeeper, and field players must not approach him closer than 6 m. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Team_handball I suppose he thought of that sport, although there are others under that name: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Handball And it will be on Olympics this summer: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/olympics/7904229/London-2012-Olympics-handball-guide.html

[Matthew]

Re: handball mathematical approach Where can you find match stats? In a structured format, readily available. Historic results and odds lines? Just use any predictive statistical method you choose. Logistic Regression if you wish to understand the chances of a outcome. Or Linear Regression to predict the scoreline for the home team / away team comparing the two. Create your own oddsline and then look at the odds available from the bookies. Where the odds justofy the risk - get involved. Which books cover handball? And more importantly will allow you more then 10p on?

[paparainbow]

Re: handball mathematical approach

Where can you find match stats? In a structured format, readily available. Historic results and odds lines? Just use any predictive statistical method you choose. Logistic Regression if you wish to understand the chances of a outcome. Or Linear Regression to predict the scoreline for the home team / away team comparing the two. Create your own oddsline and then look at the odds available from the bookies. Where the odds justofy the risk - get involved. Which books cover handball? And more importantly will allow you more then 10p on?

what i am trying to do is create a mathematical algorithm that generates bet derivatives given the initial odds. More preferably given the expected goals numbers (totals) and the handicap (goal supremacy) i want to generate odds (pre game-in play) for 1-x-2, hcp, under over, half time etc the problem is that goals are so frequent that using a poisson approach for goals expectancy-as in football- is mathematically wrong, so i am trying to figure out another method. Additionally another problem is that when i generate probabilities, draw has too small probability compared to bookies (bet365, unibet are the ones i compare with the most) Unless bookies use poisson models and produce matrices with odds, and then they manipulate them to bring them close to their risk management criteria.

[paparainbow]

Re: handball mathematical approach i guess normal distribution fit data batter, but standard deviation can be a problem. Any idea?