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fishy25

May 13 - May 20

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Re: May 13 - May 20

Giraldo's just not that good. Too streaky and will cough up errors against sparrers. Tomic has more ability than him and is getting better on clay. You've got to weigh up the value on guys like Santi - 1' date='55 for him? Sorry guys, it's naive to bet like that.[/quote'] Bummer that you didn't come with this before the bet was lost.. But okay, how can you call this naive betting? Tomic a young bloke that before the match played 11 ATP matches on clay in his whole carreer and 5 on challenger level. Giraldo on that note 69 on ATP and 151 on challenger level. Not saying that this is decisive for a bet as there are a lot of idiots roaming around pushing themselves to a few points on clay as it's the only thing they know. But what it does say is that Giraldo has way more experience on this surface and knows his way well around it. Even though he proclaims that hardcourt is his best surface. This inexperience of Tomic is very well to be seen when you look at this court movement and the shot decisions he makes being on court. Ridiculous slices falling halfcourt and dropshots out of no where just, giving away that his decisions are born out of uncertainty. Now what was very important in my perspective of seeing value was also the adaptation time that Giraldo had from very fast blue clay to the very slow clay here in Rome. Hanescu and Gulbis aren't the players they used to be, but surely they are still competitive at least in some streaks of the matches. Ultimately it's not the wins over these guys that pulled me over it's the fact that Giraldo had more match time and match rythm going into the Tomic match. 1.55 on Giraldo with more experience, more adaptation time and more match rythm and in my eyes at this moment more skill on clay. You might disagree, but any day for me. Tomic is a man for the future not for yesterday.

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Re: May 13 - May 20 Del Potro - Llodra Selection: Under 18.5 games @ 1.95 (Unibet) 8/10 Tasty line on this one. I like how Del Potro is dictating more on clay. We could see it in Madrid and we could see it in Estoril. DP is stepping up his clay game. This match is also all about more time. More time to return Llodra's service and more time to finish the ball when Llodra is at the net. On this slow clay I can't see Llodra getting more than 6 games with his playing style. 1 match played on clay, 63 63 61 at RG back in '09.

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Re: May 13 - May 20 Garcia Lopez - Andujar Will be really short here, but match starts in one hour. A match between two good clay players. But i think Andujar have more quality here to win this match. Garcia-Lopez can produce a lot of errors during the match and i think Andujar is steady enough to let Garcia-Lopez make the fault. 2/10 Andujar ML @ 1.94 Pinnacle Tomic - Djokovic Will be place a small stake here. Djokovic have more quality than Tomic, but he is not in his best form. For Djokovic it will be the first match here in Rome. But he lead 1-0 in H2H matches. 3-1 on Wimbledon last year. When i saw Tomic playing yesterday, it looks terrible. Tomic was the whole match in the 'push' mode and don't tennis to win. But he looking not fully fit. I think Djokovic can be really smashes Tomic here, but it will be a little bit tricky line. 1/10 Under 19 games @ 1.78 Pinnacle Lopez - Granollers 1.40/1.45 will be fair here. But this is a little bit to high. Lopez will be a really good player, also he had not a good week in Madrid. But can we name the surface in Madrid as clay? He will showing some good perfomance during this year, i follow him in the most tournaments and he playing well. Granollers is a good player, but in my eyes he stays a little bit to high on the World Tour Ranking. Playing well on this surface at the most times and he like it, but i think he have not enough quality to beat Lopez here. If Lopez will be fully focused during this match, he can win this in straight sets. But i don't bet on that. 3/10 Lopez ML @ 1.52 Pinnacle

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Re: May 13 - May 20 Marinko Matosevic vs. Marsel Ilhan ATP Challenger Tour event in Bordeaux is one of the best rated tournaments of this category and usually attracts very good field of tennis players. One of the first round matches this year is duel between Australian Marinko Matosevic and Marcel Ilhan, the best Turkish player. Marinko Matosevic, Australian player with Bosnian origin, is having a breakthrough season this year after his surprising run to the finals in Delray Beach in March. Matosevic found himself ranked in Top100 for the first time in his career this Monday after title in Athens. His strenghts are good serve and sound volleys and he really is maybe the biggest surprise package of this tennis season. Marinko Matosevic has never had any success on red clay but recorded his first ATP Tour level wins on the dirt over Kukushkin and Farah in Munich two weeks ago. He is really playing with confidence now but also played 11 matches in last two weeks, came from green clay in America to red clay in Munich, then to hard court in Athens and now again to red clay, his least favourite surface, in Bordeaux. Very difficult task for any player! And he also played finals in Athens on Sunday then had to travel to Bordeaux and play his match today, so no time to get used to new conditions. His rival, Marcel Ilhan, has had a career-best season in 2011 and recorded some really good wins. Ilhan is not a clay courter but he has really solid record on the dirt and is 22-15 since 2011. The two met twice during last 12 months with Ilhan winning easily in two sets on both occassions and has nice chance to record another victory over confident but tired Matosevic, who could also prefer some rest before the start of French Open qualification. Many reasons to make a tennis pick on Marcel Ilhan here. Starting Time: 15 May 2012, 12:30 CET Bet: Ilhan Odds: 2.10 Stake: 8 units Bookmaker: 5Dimes

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Re: May 13 - May 20 Anyone else think nalbandian has a real good chance of beating Murray later today?? Murray got Smashed last time he was on clay to Raonic who himself is not that spectacular on clay. ..

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Re: May 13 - May 20 Bad start of the day, but one more pick for tonight! Isner - Seppi Good odds here for Isner. Will be hold my analyse short here. Match from Isner yesterday against Kohlschreiber was not good all the time. But he showing some mentality and fitness to win this match. After one set down. The last weeks he had some rest and focussed himself on the bigger tournaments that are coming. Seppi showing some good form the last weeks, but i think he had not enough quality to beat Isner here in my eyes. Seppi beaten Istomin in the first round in three sets and how he plays it don't look good, don't good enough to beat Isner here tonight. Also Seppi have more motivation to playing in his own country, but that is the reason that the odd will be higher than normally. 2/10 Isner ML @ 1.62 Pinnacle

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Re: May 13 - May 20 Following these threads since the Australian Open. Some great punters here. Enjoy watching tennis but would have nowhere the knowledge on display in here. What are best sites for stats/Tennis news/etc. Betfair and Bet 365 give some useful info but where is best for the extra knowledge do you think?

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Re: May 13 - May 20 Nalbandian - Murray Nice line here. Murray not in his best form and Nalbaldian are playing good yesterday. Nalbaldian likes this surface and Murray are not on his best on this surface. Murray leads the H2H with 4-2 and winning the last four meetings. But not one meeting was on clay and i think for Nalbaldian here a very good chances to cover this HCP 2/10 Nalbandian +4.5 games @ 1.74 Pinnacle

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Re: May 13 - May 20

Following these threads since the Australian Open. Some great punters here. Enjoy watching tennis but would have nowhere the knowledge on display in here. What are best sites for stats/Tennis news/etc. Betfair and Bet 365 give some useful info but where is best for the extra knowledge do you think?
I am sure that there have been some sites mentioned over the years, including tennis matchstat, for example. However, I believe that you do not really need those in order to become a great punter - just watch a lot of tennis (and try to work things out in your head).

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Re: May 13 - May 20

Bummer that you didn't come with this before the bet was lost.. But okay, how can you call this naive betting? Tomic a young bloke that before the match played 11 ATP matches on clay in his whole carreer and 5 on challenger level. Giraldo on that note 69 on ATP and 151 on challenger level. Not saying that this is decisive for a bet as there are a lot of idiots roaming around pushing themselves to a few points on clay as it's the only thing they know. But what it does say is that Giraldo has way more experience on this surface and knows his way well around it. Even though he proclaims that hardcourt is his best surface. This inexperience of Tomic is very well to be seen when you look at this court movement and the shot decisions he makes being on court. Ridiculous slices falling halfcourt and dropshots out of no where just, giving away that his decisions are born out of uncertainty. Now what was very important in my perspective of seeing value was also the adaptation time that Giraldo had from very fast blue clay to the very slow clay here in Rome. Hanescu and Gulbis aren't the players they used to be, but surely they are still competitive at least in some streaks of the matches. Ultimately it's not the wins over these guys that pulled me over it's the fact that Giraldo had more match time and match rythm going into the Tomic match. 1.55 on Giraldo with more experience, more adaptation time and more match rythm and in my eyes at this moment more skill on clay. You might disagree, but any day for me. Tomic is a man for the future not for yesterday.
I don't think you can say Tomic was a man for the future rather than yesterday. He won the match fair and square. It's pretty simple really. Giraldo was a losing bet. End of on that front. Tomic was the right call. You're right on this though: I should've piped up earlier on Giraldo when I saw a few people take it. But everyone has different conceptions of value. That's the beauty of it. Obviously the layers had Santi down as the favourite but the price was laughable. Remember, Tomic is ranked higher than Giraldo and I'd argue that he's achieved more than Santi ever has. Yes, Giraldo made the final of Costa do Sauipe last year, but take that away and his clay form is pretty average. When he hits his A-game he's a handy player but that's far too rare. Tomic is a more intelligent player and basically made Giraldo self-destruct. There are so many players on the Tour like this. We all fall foul of it. That's why value is so important. Odds-on shots are dangerous animals in tennis. Look at Monfils and Lopez today as examples. Very rarely is their much juice in them. Monfils' defeat was no surprise to me (I took JCF on the plus) although I concede that Lopez's defeat was flummoxing (I didn't take him but had shortlisted overs). I suppose the slow conditions didn't help him, nor did the wind. These guys are rarely to be backed at short odds. There's just no value - you'll lose cash by doing so on a regular basis. I'd expect Gasquet, Almagro and Del Potro all to win tomorrow but in the low 1.20s, is there any value there. All could in theory lose. You have to be shrewd with the shorties. That's really my point. I've been burned in the past by it and that's why I'm saying it now.

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Re: May 13 - May 20

Garcia Lopez - Andujar Will be really short here, but match starts in one hour. A match between two good clay players. But i think Andujar have more quality here to win this match. Garcia-Lopez can produce a lot of errors during the match and i think Andujar is steady enough to let Garcia-Lopez make the fault. 2/10 Andujar ML @ 1.94 Pinnacle Tomic - Djokovic Will be place a small stake here. Djokovic have more quality than Tomic, but he is not in his best form. For Djokovic it will be the first match here in Rome. But he lead 1-0 in H2H matches. 3-1 on Wimbledon last year. When i saw Tomic playing yesterday, it looks terrible. Tomic was the whole match in the 'push' mode and don't tennis to win. But he looking not fully fit. I think Djokovic can be really smashes Tomic here, but it will be a little bit tricky line. 1/10 Under 19 games @ 1.78 Pinnacle Lopez - Granollers 1.40/1.45 will be fair here. But this is a little bit to high. Lopez will be a really good player, also he had not a good week in Madrid. But can we name the surface in Madrid as clay? He will showing some good perfomance during this year, i follow him in the most tournaments and he playing well. Granollers is a good player, but in my eyes he stays a little bit to high on the World Tour Ranking. Playing well on this surface at the most times and he like it, but i think he have not enough quality to beat Lopez here. If Lopez will be fully focused during this match, he can win this in straight sets. But i don't bet on that. 3/10 Lopez ML @ 1.52 Pinnacle
Nalbandian - Murray Nice line here. Murray not in his best form and Nalbaldian are playing good yesterday. Nalbaldian likes this surface and Murray are not on his best on this surface. Murray leads the H2H with 4-2 and winning the last four meetings. But not one meeting was on clay and i think for Nalbaldian here a very good chances to cover this HCP 2/10 Nalbandian +4.5 games @ 1.74 Pinnacle
This was be a very freaky day. Andujar losing against Garcia Lopez, but that was okay. Garcia Lopez playing better in this match. Then i will be looking to Lopez, what a dramatic match did he played. 38% first service in the first set and only 3 returning points winning in the second set. Best choke was the last game, Granollers win his own service game with only second services. Nalbandian let us down in the first set, where he was very unlucky and Murray was lucky with some lucky balls on key moments. When Nalbandian was a break early up in the third a believe that he will cover my HCP, but one game before cover this HCP he will broken by Murray. Tiebreak in the third was enough :(. When Murray was serving for the match Nalbandian had 2 break points for the tiebreak. So really close again. I hope Djokovic will be playing good the second set, than we have one winning bet in this freaky day. I will be back tomorrow, with some winning picks i hope! This will be my monthly dramatic day.

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Re: May 13 - May 20 Fognini - Granollers Wow, what a odds here for Fognini! Bookies are underrating here him or overrating Granollers. Fognini playing wel against Baghdatis and showing good perfomance. Knows the weather and knows this tourney. Granollers won in straight sets today against Lopez, but Lopez was very poor. This was be a easy win for him, but he must be overrated here. 3/10 Fognini ML @ 1.83 BET365

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Re: May 13 - May 20

I don't think you can say Tomic was a man for the future rather than yesterday. He won the match fair and square. It's pretty simple really. Giraldo was a losing bet. End of on that front. Tomic was the right call. You're right on this though: I should've piped up earlier on Giraldo when I saw a few people take it. But everyone has different conceptions of value. That's the beauty of it. Obviously the layers had Santi down as the favourite but the price was laughable. Remember, Tomic is ranked higher than Giraldo and I'd argue that he's achieved more than Santi ever has. Yes, Giraldo made the final of Costa do Sauipe last year, but take that away and his clay form is pretty average. When he hits his A-game he's a handy player but that's far too rare. Tomic is a more intelligent player and basically made Giraldo self-destruct. There are so many players on the Tour like this. We all fall foul of it. That's why value is so important. Odds-on shots are dangerous animals in tennis. Look at Monfils and Lopez today as examples. Very rarely is their much juice in them. Monfils' defeat was no surprise to me (I took JCF on the plus) although I concede that Lopez's defeat was flummoxing (I didn't take him but had shortlisted overs). I suppose the slow conditions didn't help him, nor did the wind. These guys are rarely to be backed at short odds. There's just no value - you'll lose cash by doing so on a regular basis. I'd expect Gasquet, Almagro and Del Potro all to win tomorrow but in the low 1.20s, is there any value there. All could in theory lose. You have to be shrewd with the shorties. That's really my point. I've been burned in the past by it and that's why I'm saying it now.
Fair enough man but let's stop with that ... it's not always who is a better and more talented player, it's not that most of the time in fact. It's too arguable on many aspects, Tomic just won on the particular day and that's it. Anyway, I have a lot of picks for tomorrow - Fognini, Monaco, Serra, Wawrinka, GGL to win a set as well as some lower favourites useful for parlays - Del Potro, PHM, Almagro and so. Hoping to find time to write about some of them. Good luck to everybody. ;)

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Re: May 13 - May 20 Hi guys, 1 pick for ATP ROME: ALMAGRO-QUERREY OVER 21 GAMES @ 1.79 on pinnaclesports Querrey has better game for clay than most US players with good mix of serves and powerful baseline game. Almagro struggled in all of his matches on clay this season. Should be a close long match.

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Re: May 13 - May 20 Atko, you say you had bets in play the last couple of days? Please do share them as I like to read your write ups and to see you picks. There are quite some picks being posted here but frankly, while I appreciate the posts, the picks are of very streaky quality with low to no value at all. So, Atko, if you have picks, post em up!

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Re: May 13 - May 20 :lol ahahah you are sooooo funny, begging for picks is not allowed here try to search some infos and post it here not just waiting for others!!!

Atko, you say you had bets in play the last couple of days? Please do share them as I like to read your write ups and to see you picks. There are quite some picks being posted here but frankly, while I appreciate the posts, the picks are of very streaky quality with low to no value at all. So, Atko, if you have picks, post em up!

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Re: May 13 - May 20

:lol ahahah you are sooooo funny' date=' begging for picks is not allowed here try to search some infos and post it here not just waiting for others!!![/quote'] hu? Who was begging? I merely stated that I really appreciate Atko's picks and write ups and that I would enjoy to read more of them. Why am I not posting plays myself yet you ask? Well, I am not confident enough to do so. Despite (as I suspect quite a few others here), I don't believe that I know enough yet to post informed plays as I am still learning and don't want people to follow somebody with a hit rate like mine. No offense to anybody who is posting here, but some are A LOT better than others and I would like to show my appreciation to the ones posting winning plays and well researched write ups.

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Re: May 13 - May 20 Appreciate the feedback bepster. You shouldn't be scared to post your picks as everyone has winners and losers. I sometimes don't post because I don't feel the urge to. I will try to though as I enjoy the writing, enjoy the debate/banter and like to put my thoughts on tennis across. Here are my bets today ... - Under 19 games AH between Roger Federer and Carlos Berlocq (ATP Madrid) @ 1.90 with panbet I know Fed has been complaining of an injury but he's in form and a much better player than Berlocq. The Argentine has had a good season. Steady on clay and takes down guys ranked beneath him but rarely does much against the top players. Not enough power. Feel Roger will break him down and for that reason the unders look decent to me. Federer won't want to mess around early in the event. - Mikhail Youzhny +4 games AH v Juan Martin Del Potro (ATP Madrid) @ 1.90 with panbet Del Potro said yesterday that he's got a knee injury. Not surprised as he's played a lot of tennis recently. It'll catch up with him. Llodra took him close yesterday and Mischa could do the same. The Colonel is back to something near his best after injury himself and last week lost 6-4 7-6 to Delpo. May not win but has a chance and I feel the line is a little generous considering the Argentine isn't 100% fit. - Under 19 games AH between Tomas Berdych and Lukasz Kubot (ATP Madrid) @ 1.90 with panbet Berdych has covered this line every time he's faced Kubot (H2H is 2-0) and I see no reason to quibble over it again. Berdych has got the power and consistency to do damage on slow clay courts. Kubot can be awkward with serve-and-volley but T-Bird has dealt with him before and I feel he will do so again. - Over 22 games AH between Stanislas Wawrinka and Janko Tipsarevic (ATP Madrid) @ 1.92 with panbet Predicting a close match here. Stan struggled a bit with Haase but came through while Tipsy seems to be in top form right now. First ever meeting so will take a bit of time for each other to work out how to win. Both decent on clay and will scrap away. Has right ingredients for me to make overs. :hope

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Re: May 13 - May 20 For some reason I believe that Tipsarevic looks value @ 2.50 today, as Wawrinka was not playing well against Haase in the first round and the Serb is certainly good enough to beat him - even on clay. Not a guarantee by any means, but I would rate Tipsarevic as the better player overall in all honesty. And for the very adventurous types, I would probably suggest going against Berdych in some form. Great at Madrid, but streaky as hell and Kubot is a tricky match-up with his aggressive play. The value simply has to be there @ 10.25 with Pinnacle, since the Pole will surely win this one more than 10% of the time. Not a great bet if you are on a tight bankroll though.

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Re: May 13 - May 20 Atko - I know you like to play it safe, but if you truly believe in your analysis then you should probably play Youzhny at a one-ball bookie. Bwin has a 4.50 on offer and I think that you are missing on some value with that +4. I, for one, would expect Del Po to cover that line if he manages to win.

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Re: May 13 - May 20

Appreciate the feedback bepster. You shouldn't be scared to post your picks as everyone has winners and losers. I sometimes don't post because I don't feel the urge to. I will try to though as I enjoy the writing, enjoy the debate/banter and like to put my thoughts on tennis across. Here are my bets today ... - Under 19 games AH between Roger Federer and Carlos Berlocq (ATP Madrid) @ 1.90 with panbet I know Fed has been complaining of an injury but he's in form and a much better player than Berlocq. The Argentine has had a good season. Steady on clay and takes down guys ranked beneath him but rarely does much against the top players. Not enough power. Feel Roger will break him down and for that reason the unders look decent to me. Federer won't want to mess around early in the event. - Mikhail Youzhny +4 games AH v Juan Martin Del Potro (ATP Madrid) @ 1.90 with panbet Del Potro said yesterday that he's got a knee injury. Not surprised as he's played a lot of tennis recently. It'll catch up with him. Llodra took him close yesterday and Mischa could do the same. The Colonel is back to something near his best after injury himself and last week lost 6-4 7-6 to Delpo. May not win but has a chance and I feel the line is a little generous considering the Argentine isn't 100% fit. - Under 19 games AH between Tomas Berdych and Lukasz Kubot (ATP Madrid) @ 1.90 with panbet Berdych has covered this line every time he's faced Kubot (H2H is 2-0) and I see no reason to quibble over it again. Berdych has got the power and consistency to do damage on slow clay courts. Kubot can be awkward with serve-and-volley but T-Bird has dealt with him before and I feel he will do so again. - Over 22 games AH between Stanislas Wawrinka and Janko Tipsarevic (ATP Madrid) @ 1.92 with panbet Predicting a close match here. Stan struggled a bit with Haase but came through while Tipsy seems to be in top form right now. First ever meeting so will take a bit of time for each other to work out how to win. Both decent on clay and will scrap away. Has right ingredients for me to make overs. :hope
To be honest mate, all of these can go either way. Let me give my two cents here - to do unders on Federer is the worst for me, especially in first rounds. The world number 2 will step on a slow clay for the first time in the year as well and we saw him tank games too many times. Especially that Berlocq is such a sticky, tricky guy, I don't find this as a reasonable pick ... just me though, I don't know. Youhzny ... I don't know. Berdych - I'd agree here as he loves to destroy guys. On the last, I have the feeling that Wawrinka will come out hitting amazing and I can see him easily dispatching Tipsarevic.

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Re: May 13 - May 20 Well, I also agree that betting on Youzhny may be a smart move today as odds about 4.50 is tempting. Youzhny is capable of playing some great tennis and despite being down 0-3 in Head 2 Head it was never an easy match for Del Potro and he was clearly not feeling 100% well yesterday and could even lose to Llodra who is not any force on red clay courts.

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Re: May 13 - May 20

To be honest mate' date=' all of these can go either way. Let me give my two cents here - to do unders on Federer is the worst for me, especially in first rounds. The world number 2 will step on a slow clay for the first time in the year as well and we saw him tank games too many times. Especially that Berlocq is such a sticky, tricky guy, I don't find this as a reasonable pick ... just me though, I don't know. Youhzny ... I don't know. Berdych - I'd agree here as he loves to destroy guys. On the last, I have the feeling that Wawrinka will come out hitting amazing and I can see him easily dispatching Tipsarevic.[/quote'] Indeed they could. But I believe they'll all win. And if not - and of course, there's a chance they won't - I'll take it on the chin and move on. Good that you put the view across though, there's not enough debate here, which is what I like.

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Re: May 13 - May 20

Atko - I know you like to play it safe' date=' but if you truly believe in your analysis then you should probably play Youzhny at a one-ball bookie. Bwin has a 4.50 on offer and I think that you are missing on some value with that +4. I, for one, would expect Del Po to cover that line if he manages to win.[/quote'] I actually was tempted to take him but have held off for now. One never truly knows how badly the injuries are. Youzhny has proved in the past he's a tricky match-up for Delpo.

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