April 30-May 6

[homunculus]

Re: April 30-May 6

[...snip...] Cibulkova to beat Vinci @1.50(Unibet) [...snip...]

I am not telling this does not come through, but with Vinci having won their last two encounters, and with Vinci being excellent claycourter, and with the mental fragility of Cibulkova that is able to lose the already won match (see her match vs Azarenka at Miami), and with Cibulkova's recent loss to Amanmurad on Stuttgart clay, I would not take this, especially not at the 1.5ish price.. Perhaps if that were at evens, then maybe. But BOL to your plays.

[flipkick]

Re: April 30-May 6

I only saw the tip when I came on which was after the match. However' date=' it's common knowledge that Vera has been struggling with injury and is out form. Likewise, Cetkovska's run in New Haven last season was the surprise of the year and and anyone taking this bet on must have known about that, as it's always risky betting against her as she's capable of producing the goods.[/quote'] It's very easy to be wise after the event but still of very little use...:)

[fishy25]

Re: April 30-May 6

It's very easy to be wise after the event but still of very little use...:)

It wasn't done to sound wise. I simply wrote it because it was said that Zvonareva was 'over and done with', which isn't the case just because she lost one match. I was just stating that it wasn't a shock that she lost the match given the circumstances, and she isn't 'over', she's simply just struggling with fitness and form at the minute and was up against a tricky opponent regardless. If you followed or took that bet yourself, and weren't aware of those factors, I'd suggest you hadn't done enough research into the match as all of those points are pretty well known are are key influences into taking a bet. Just points to consider next time :ok

[flipkick]

Re: April 30-May 6 CILIC VS KOHLSCHREIBER 1st SET - OVER 9.5 GAMES 4/6 @ LADBROKES Kohscrheiber playing very well and very strong in first set in last two maches and will want to start well in front of home crowd but may find it hard to break Cilics powerful serve, so can't see either player taking the 1st set 6-3 or under.

[ImLovinIt]

Re: April 30-May 6 First Round ATP @ the Madrid Masters Feliciano Lopez to beat Jurgen no heart or desire if I can't have it all my own way Melzer @ 8/13 with Bet Victor X Andujar to beat the beautiful pony tailed Dolgopolov @ 7/5 with Bet Victor 2.88/1 as a double with Bet Victor *Rubs hands* Feliciano is a class above Jurgen when game for action and its at this time in the season, in the lead up to the clay and grass events where Feliciano really moves into that "game for action" mode and state of mind. We saw the passionate display he put in @ Barcelona and I'm anticipating another here in Madrid. He's been serving top notch and the key to knowing when Feliciano is playing well is when his one-two punch of serve volley is operating well. Despite losing to Kohlschreiber in his last match, he showed a lot of good signs, so clutch under pressure, saving bps, sps and mps .. all with massive serving and equisite artistry of touch, under pressure. Kohlschreiber for me, wanted the victory that little bit more and is very capable of a performance like that and he produced it, inspired by his own support. Here, Feliciano's going to be on his own turf and you jus see can't the head case Melzer getting much of a read on his serve, for whatever break points he'll conjur, he'll true to his ways spurn them some how and you can always count on him to throw a sloppy service game in here and there. Melzer often likes to play this "cat and mouse" tennis on clay and in this department, up against a guy with Feliciano's amazing net skills and equisite touch, he's going to come out second best I am afraid. We also all know about Melzer's headcase tendencies, he often not only has the other guy at the opposite side of the net to beat, but also himself! Nah, ugh, too much for the bloke. On to Andujar, when this bloke is motivated and focused, he is a force to be bloody reckoned with on clay, hell he's even proved he's no slouch on hard this season with that run @ Indian Wells. The key here for me is Andujar's ability, WHEN ON SONG, to neutralize attacking shots by getting balls back with depth, he rarely allows his opponents to muscle their way into a commanding position in a rally. (That's key against a player like Dolgopolov) We all know Dolgo goes through phases in matches, phases where his missiles land and phases where they jus .. hit civilians I guess you could say? That's Dologo, all or nothing .. if he can't be brilliant, he's not half way to being brilliant. All in all, Andujar's @ home and that will provide him with motivation. You feel, if motivated, he's going to be the one out of the two that sterns the test of time better. 8/10 in the confidence stakes

[flipkick]

Re: April 30-May 6

It wasn't done to sound wise. I simply wrote it because it was said that Zvonareva was 'over and done with'' date=' which isn't the case just because she lost one match. I was just stating that it wasn't a shock that she lost the match given the circumstances, and she isn't 'over', she's simply just struggling with fitness and form at the minute and was up against a tricky opponent regardless. If you followed or took that bet yourself, and weren't aware of those factors, I'd suggest you hadn't done enough research into the match as all of those points are pretty well known are are key influences into taking a bet. Just points to consider next time :ok[/quote'] I agree she has been struggling with her form but she has class in abundance. As for her fitness, she has no recent injuries (according to TennisExplorer) but maybe they're incorrect, either way maybe you could let me know the site where you got your information from so as I may become as well informed as you! ;)

[ImLovinIt]

Re: April 30-May 6 In-play. R, Bautista Agut to beat Andreev @ 6/5 with Paddy Power. Bautista has been playing some impressive tennis this season and I can't really seperate these two's quality on clay ATM... so I'm going with the home-boy Spaniard. 7/10 in the confidence stakes

[ImLovinIt]

Re: April 30-May 6 Berloqc to beat Granollers @ Evens with Bet365 These odds are dictated by the fact Granollers is going to be playing @ home, well he was playing @ home in Barcelona and what happened there? Cut apart from Fernando bloody Gil! Granollers has shown any inspiration he gets from playing @ home is not enough to turn around this bad form and lack of confidence he's in. Berloqc, despite only having jus over-come a left calf injury, should still be in good enough shape to dispose of Marcel here. 7/10 in the confidence stakes

[shor]

Re: April 30-May 6

Berloqc to beat Granollers @ Evens with Bet 365 These odds are dictated by the fact Granollers is going to be playing @ home, well he was playing @ home in Barcelona and what happened there? Cut apart from Fernando bloody Gil! Granollers has shown any inspiration he gets from playing @ home is not enough to turn around this bad form and lack of confidence he's in. Berloqc, despite only having jus over-come a left calf injury, should still be in good enough shape to dispose of Marcel here. 7/10 in the confidence stakes

Frederico.

[fishy25]

Re: April 30-May 6

I agree she has been struggling with her form but she has class in abundance. As for her fitness, she has no recent injuries (according to TennisExplorer) but maybe they're incorrect, either way maybe you could let me know the site where you got your information from so as I may become as well informed as you! ;)

Form is just as important as overall ability though, especially when it comes to the women who are more mentally fragile. There's not one particular site I use, but place like MatchStat amongst others have reported the shoulder injury. She hadn't played since Charleston either which would indicate something isn't right as she probably would have played in Stuttgart along with the other top women if she was fit. She's not quite the force on clay as she is on the hard courts though even when she is fit.

[flipkick]

Re: April 30-May 6

CILIC VS KOHLSCHREIBER 1st SET - OVER 9.5 GAMES 4/6 @ LADBROKES Kohscrheiber playing very well and very strong in first set in last two maches and will want to start well in front of home crowd but may find it hard to break Cilics powerful serve, so can't see either player taking the 1st set 6-3 or under.

Get in there my son (not exactly as expected)!! but...:rollin

[Darek]

Re: April 30-May 6 homunculus, great pick. Thanks for that. But more than pick I admire one sentence from your post

As to 10/10 mark, this is NOT confidence (which would mean certainity), but simply this reflects the fact that I am willing to put maximum stake on this final bet of the week, fully acception the risk of ending the week with -12.7 pts loss.

It shows that you are not only a great punter but also you have great bankroll management. I'm struggling with BRM sometimes, but not so often last days. And you sentence will be a good improvement to my mindset. Good luck in next bets!

[ImLovinIt]

Re: April 30-May 6

:D I bet Chelsea to win the FA Cup 2-1 and Andy Caroll to have a goal dissalowed in the 82nd minute at 745/1. But I didn't put it here' date=' sorry.[/quote'] LOL!!!!!

[ImLovinIt]

Re: April 30-May 6

M, Kirilenko vs J, Zheng over 20.5 games in the Madrid Masters @ 19/20 with Panbet Both of these players are pretty even on this surface IMO. Kirelenko is talented and can grace the court with quality tennis on her day. Zheng is a well drilled oriental player on clay, she's consistent and more often than not keeps a good length. Both players, historically, are renownd for making life difficult for not only their opponent, but also themselves, this line is very generous based on that front and I'm willing to snap it up. 7/10 in the confidence stakes

6-2, 7-5 to Kirenko and missing the line by a single game. Pathetic WTA :(

[shor]

Re: April 30-May 6

Gimeno-Traver to beat Gil @2.15(Unibet) Ok. Very, very good value in this one. Regarding both players form, the portuguese competitor clearly has some better results. In the last two years Gimeno-Traver's form is gettin from bad to worse it looks, but I think the spaniard brings his best to some particular tournaments, and especially this one. Last year he came in Madrid in a similar fashion, recording a lot of bad results, but surprisingly for some, he had amazing results - qualifying easily and then in the main draw beating Gasquet and Melzer playing his top tennis. He destroyed Clement in the first round of the qualies here(6-0 6-1), suggesting that Traver is on a mission here again. About Gil - he had some good results in last couple of tournaments that he took part in, he beat Ebden here, but we know clay is not among the australian's prefered surfaces. Technically the two are pretty similar players, but I am convinced the spanish is the more determined to win this match and at least to me there's no doubt that he's going to do it. Andreev to beat Bautista-Agut @1.48(Unibet) Igor Andreev is the better player here. Agut is playing in home, it's certain that he'll fight hard until the end, but I think he's a challenger level player and that will reflect as we are talking about Masters series event. All Andreev needs to do here is to come out and play good, that would be enough for him to clinch a victory. Giraldo to beat Munoz-De La Nava @1.40(Bet365) I don't see how Munoz stands any chance here. He's playing in home, but that doesn't mean so much I would say. The colombian is a much better player - the results and rankings show it. Giraldo is certainly here to qualify. Hanescu to beat Cipolla @1.70(Unibet) The romanian is winning this imo. Both are coming with mediocre results on the clay. Hanescu has played a lot more matches on it, he's a better player than the little italian, has a serve and weapons unlike his midget opponent. I expect an easy win here. Hajek to beat De Veigy @1.38(Unibet) The odds here were much better yesterday, but considering the lock this is, it's usual. De Veigy is going to be in a third straight final as he ended up the loser in the last two. You can hardly expect something else as Hajek is playing in home, is a much more experienced and better player. The czech will rape him here. Stakhovsky to beat [email protected](Unibet) This one might be a bit tricky, but no way for me to avoid such a value. I don't think the french has half the experience in atp level as Stak has. Both of them did not make any impact in the clay season this year, but regarding Stakhovsky's last year experience in Madrid - he beat Montanes, Isner and gave trouble to Ferrer, I think we must surely give him the edge. Some wta stuff. I don't like to bet on these, but I spotted a few encounters that are must bets. Medina Garrigues to beat Pironkova @1.37(Unibet) This one's odds are also dropping. First of all, Pironkova is a bad player in my opinion. On clay she can't play to save her life .. past results can show that. AMG on the other side is one of the most prolific clay court players in the women's tour in the last 7 or 8 years. Even though she's not that young and can be considered a veteran, she has plenty of experience and I don't think she'll give any chance to the bulgarian player. Medina Garrigues wins this match. Cibulkova to beat Vinci @1.50(Unibet) Odds are dropping too. There's no other way as Cibulkova is a lock here. H2H is 2-2 with Vinci winning the last meeting in Indian Wells this year. I think the slovakian was a bit patchy back then and I think that's the reason for the loss. Comparing the two, Vinci's game is nothing special, she does not have power in her game, uses slices and such stuff. Cibulkova is a midget, but she brings some great and powerful for her size shots, she definitely has more to bring to the table. Also seeing that Cibulkova was playing great here last year(beating Kuznetsova, Sharapova and almost Kvitova), I think it all points to a slovakian success here. Good luck. :unsure

Pff seriously ... why would I get involved with challengers and wta ... all the ATP Madrid picks won.

[ImLovinIt]

Re: April 30-May 6 Monfils to beat Kohlschreiber @ 4/5 with Paddy Power or 17/20 if you have Betfair (Unlike me) This is the time to fade Philip you'd feel, the past week must must have taken a bit out of him, he's surely to be feeling both physically and mentally drained. Gael will be in preparation for the French here and knows he'll need match time to generate his game into check, for me that's motivation enough. A fit and raring Gael Monfils will always quite effortlessly dispose with Kohlschreiber on this surface .. yes I'm going to use that word again, "hustler" because it fits Monfil's description perfectly. He is an athlete that jus so happens to play tennis and an athlete on clay with decent skills to boot is tough to beat. All in all, despite the lack of match practice for Gael, Kohlschreiber will be somewhat equally as handicapped with the mental and physical exhaustion he'll probably be feeling once he lands in Madrid tomorrow. 8/10 in the confidence stakes

[homunculus]

Re: April 30-May 6

BMW Final Kohli to bt Cilic @2.49 Pinnacle (10/10) :ok

+12.2 pts this week +50.7 pts this season

[ImLovinIt]

Re: April 30-May 6 Milos Raonic ‏ @milosraonic Hitting on the Smurf clay, the bounce is lower and the 2 courts I practiced on were a bit more slippery than usual. http://img.ly/hKJ1

[ImLovinIt]

Re: April 30-May 6 That could only hinder Milos being as tall as he is. What do you reckon Atko/Homo/Fishy ... ?

[homunculus]

Re: April 30-May 6

That could only hinder Milos being as tall as he is. What do you reckon Atko/Homo/Fishy ... ?

I am not going to be engaged much this week, because I have some work to be done and will not be following the matches that closely. But MHO tells me that Nalby should lose as the odds suggest - his doublefaults record in Serbia was plain awful. Milos is rested and should kil him. Milos -2.5 seems to be value here, but again I say It's just my first opinion without having done much research. And as to your Monfils bet - Gael's status is injured according to Matchstat - something with his abdominal or stomach which is his favourite injury. Personally, I would not touch Clownfils except hard/i-hard played in France provided he is fully fit. And Anduclown beating Dolgo, I see it rather improbable - man, Dolgo took Djoker to three sets in Monte Carlo, while Anduclown choked the match with Paire big time yesterday. Dolgo should win IMO. So those are my "first impression" opinions, but again,I have not done much research on them. BOL with your plays. And, sir, do not call me "Homo" next time, please :-)

[fishy25]

Re: April 30-May 6 Let's move the discussion to this week's thread guys. :ok