April 23 - April 29

[the matador]

Re: April 23 - April 29 Can anybody give a good explanation to why andujar lost to farah playing at home on his best surface?

[Spannar]

Kerber tb Wozniaki @5/4 stake £50 at Stuttgart I guess Kerber is one of the form players atm. The other one is very blonde and I can't see much evidence that she is spectacular on this surface. Its a gamble but I think the fav is worth taking on in this match. Sent from my ST18i using PL Forum

[Atko]

Re: April 23 - April 29

Can anybody give a good explanation to why andujar lost to farah playing at home on his best surface?

Wonder if Andujar's a wee bit fatigued. Won Casa, then straight to Monte Carlo and then Barcelona. That's quite a tough schedule. Farah's got a big serve and may well have played his best tennis. One of those things I'm afraid.

[homunculus]

Re: April 23 - April 29

Barthel to beat Bartoli @ 11/10 with Coral Bartoli hasn't been at her most prolific this season and has been struggling through matches against players she really should be beating comprehensively. Now on to clay, bless this girl, she tries so hard and probably curses her luck that her home grandslam is on clay. Bartoli and Barthel are both really good ball strikers, but lack the movement necessary to be a real force on clay, so I expect this match to be kind of nip and tuck, my gut jus tells me however, Barthel will come through in the end. I base this on the fact she is playing at home. I watched her partly today knowing who she'd have in the next round and she seemed inspired by the crowd. Her serve was firing on all cylinders and whilst Bartoli has a big serve also, it isn't as consistent and a lot more prone to falling apart than Barthels. Barthel struggles with counter punchers, Bartoli is far from this, it will come down to who serves best in the end and I feel the crowd will help Barthel come through with a high percentage of first serving. 7/10

I second that @2.04 Pinnacle. Bartoli actually lost here last year with the utter joke Barrois, and Mona, though she could not be trusted against compatriots, surely wants to go further now she has beaten Ivanovic in a superb match. Also going for Kerber again to bt the boring pusher Wozniacki @2.46 Pinnacle Bookies are kiding me. Woz lost to Kerber twoo weeks ago in a final, at home, and at her best surface. Now don't tell me she will beat Kerber on Kerber's home soil and on clay - clay has never been the surface of choice for Woz, and she was lucky to get to R2 thanks to Jelena Jankovic retirement. edit: adding Schiavonne +5 games > Kvitova @1.87 Pinnacle These two played couple of days ago on i-hard at Fed Cup. Cesca not big fan of i-hard. Petra, on the contrary, is best on i-hard. The result was... 64 76 for Petra. Unbelievable. Petra has got huge serve and killing returns, but is too much in a hit 'n miss form now she has not played a while - since february's Fed Cup round, she has played only three matches on america's hard courts (lost two of them) and Fed Cup this weekend. I seriously doubt Cesca is going to be killed on Stuttgart's clay now she has beaten sticky Niculescu relatively comfortably. The only concern is that she may have some injury problems (had a medical treatment in her 1st Fed Cup match this weekend), in which case I hope she will retire. also tempted to go for a double Azarenka (vs Petkovic) x Stosur (vs Goerges) at 1.734 , but I am not sure about Vika - last year she came to Stuttgart as a seeded player to play directly R2 against Goerges, and she retired without blinking an eye, which she does annoyingly way too often :-(.

[Atko]

Re: April 23 - April 29 Three selections in total for me today. Marius Copil +4 games AH (v Lukasz Kubot in Bucharest) @ 1.86 with panbet 2pts Bucharest is one of those events that throws up some odd outcomes. Look at Balazs making the quarters, for example. Not totally sure that Copil will beat Kubot today but certainly think he'll give the Pole a good game. Saw all of Copil's destruction of Kamke and he played very well. Hits the ball hard and cleanly and has a strong serve. At 21, he's got raw potential and will be looking for a break and it could be here. Kubot's a handy claycourter but I wonder, as he gets older, if his sights are now focused on doubles, where he'll have more success. His R1 win over Moarau was elementary but this'll be much tougher. Although Kubot beat him in Monza 6-1 7-5 last year, Copil's got the attributes to keep this much closer than the bookies anticipate. Dudi Sela +6 games AH (v Gilles Simon in Bucharest) @ 1.89 with panbet 2pts This line seems barmy considering the H2H between these two. Simon has won both encounters but it was 7-6, 6-4, 7-5 at Wimbledon last year and then 7-5, 6-7, 6-4 in Indian Wells this year. Albeit Sela's not as effective on clay as on quicker surfaces, but six games appears huge considering their history. I can only assume that Simon's been capped like this because of his semi-final showing in Monte Carlo, but the Frenchman is known for being less efficient in smaller events. I feel he'll win this but not convinced that a 6-game handicap is the answer for him, and after a positive showing over Ungur in R1, I'll back the Israeli on the handicap. Over 22.5 games (Nicolas Almagro v Milos Raonic in Barcelona) @ 1.94 with panbet 1pt This has got an air of a tie-break and if that happens, overs look good. Both big hitters, Raonic more so with his big serve, while Almagro's got a lot of power off the deck. Conditions are quick and that favours overs - there have been a number of matches in Barcelona that have covered the line this week. Raonic is gritty on clay, he's a fighter and he has enough ammo to win games. Almagro's clay record goes without saying, and I'd be surprised if he didn't win this match, but not easily. Happy with the overs here. :hope

[turkiye911]

Re: April 23 - April 29 Anyone think Raonic can take a set from Almagro today?? its paying almost evens to take Raonic +1.5 sets.

[gilbertm]

Re: April 23 - April 29 Hey slider24, what you thoughts on Baker - Kendrick match? Odds are dropping everywhere, now around 1.50 for Baker win. Baker win in straight sets is 2.25, but as we saw in last matches, he likes to drop a set just for fun.

[slider24]

Re: April 23 - April 29

Hey slider24' date=' what you thoughts on Baker - Kendrick match? Odds are dropping everywhere, now around 1.50 for Baker win. Baker win in straight sets is 2.25, but as we saw in last matches, he likes to drop a set just for fun.[/quote'] Baker should win but I'm not going near him again after his opponents twice retired on him when he was in winning positions, costing me a fair bit, and he also can be very hot and cold, winning and losing games in streaks. Kendrick has enough about him to bring out that vulnerability in Baker, but Baker should be too good. 0.50 is too short for me though considering if this match was played two weeks ago Baker would've been 1.50-2.00. Good luck if you go for it.

[Pensioner65]

Re: April 23 - April 29

Daniel King-Turner to beat Alexander Kudryavtsev Kaohsiung Challenger @3.35 Bwin(3/10) [TABLE=class: plDetail] [TR] [TD=class: photo][/TD] [TD]Ok.King-Turner(seeded 815) meets Kudryavtsev(seeded 161) in the last 16.Their H2H reads a 1-0 lead for the Russian 6-4 1-6 6-3 but that was 4 years ago. These players are a very close match up & the massive difference in ranking points is due to King-Turner being inactive over the past 18 months(played only 20 times).Last round King-Turner beat Sugita Yuichi in decent fashion & since getting back playing on the hard courts, he has achieved some very credible results.His hard court figures this year are 11w/5d,with close defeats vs Udomchoke & Weintraub.Kudryavtsev started off 2012 in January/Ferbruary in good form & even made the final of the Bergamo Challenger.However,in the past couple of months his form has dipped & not helped in having to retire from 3 matches in last few weeks.Forget the ranking difference,this game is a 50/50 & will be close.But add to that the russians injury problems & dip in form I can see King-Turner winning this match & at a very good price. :hope [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE=class: plDetail] [TR] [TD=class: photo][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

Finally got the job done 4-6 6-3 7-5 :ok

[ImLovinIt]

Re: April 23 - April 29

Also going for Kerber again to bt the boring pusher Wozniacki @2.46 Pinnacle Bookies are kiding me. Woz lost to Kerber twoo weeks ago in a final, at home, and at her best surface. Now don't tell me she will beat Kerber on Kerber's home soil and on clay - clay has never been the surface of choice for Woz, and she was lucky to get to R2 thanks to Jelena Jankovic retirement. .

Dude, do you think Kerber's better surface is clay as well? Aren't you worried about her lack of movement on clay? I am jus wondering whether I should follow? :unsure

[BG1983]

Re: April 23 - April 29 Not trying to put anyone of having a bet on Kerber, just thought this stat might be useful to know.. Wozniacki has an average success of 71.19% on clay with 84 victories and 34 defeats and Kerber has an average success of 44.94% on clay with 40 victories and 49 defeats. Good luck with your bets.

[ImLovinIt]

Re: April 23 - April 29

Barthel to beat Bartoli @ 11/10 with Coral Bartoli hasn't been at her most prolific this season and has been struggling through matches against players she really should be beating comprehensively. Now on to clay, bless this girl, she tries so hard and probably curses her luck that her home grandslam is on clay. Bartoli and Barthel are both really good ball strikers, but lack the movement necessary to be a real force on clay, so I expect this match to be kind of nip and tuck, my gut jus tells me however, Barthel will come through in the end. I base this on the fact she is playing at home. I watched her partly today knowing who she'd have in the next round and she seemed inspired by the crowd. Her serve was firing on all cylinders and whilst Bartoli has a big serve also, it isn't as consistent and a lot more prone to falling apart than Barthels. Barthel struggles with counter punchers, Bartoli is far from this, it will come down to who serves best in the end and I feel the crowd will help Barthel come through with a high percentage of first serving. 7/10

:cigar

[ImLovinIt]

Re: April 23 - April 29

Bachinger to beat the lazy' date= disrespectful to the game Troicki @ 15/8 with Paddy Power I watched Bach against Volandri last match and suprisingly it wasn't entirely down to Volandri "losing it" as many people may want to think. This guy is mentally a midget, BUT yesterday I saw a player who had overcome his usual mental fragility. The talents always been there with Bachinger, jus not the resolve and coolness under pressure. He has a huuuuge serve, one which will buy him a lot of games against Victor who'll probably dump returns from them into the net or smash them long. I see lots of unforced errors from Victor tomorrow and a lot of winners from Bach, he's in that kinda mood. :) 6/10 in the confidence stakes

:nana

[ImLovinIt]

Re: April 23 - April 29 Samantha Stosur is a fool, some of those shots she missed in that second set were a joke! **** WTA! Have to chase on Stosur now!

[ImLovinIt]

Re: April 23 - April 29 I chased with -1.5 games for the set, money back and slight profit. Leaving this Woeful Tour Association from now on.

[IAmGooner]

Re: April 23 - April 29 :eyes

[roveruk]

Re: April 23 - April 29

Samantha Stosur is a fool' date= some of those shots she missed in that second set were a joke! **** WTA! Have to chase on Stosur now!

Well it was never going to be straight forward for her. She is the better player but did you check the H2H? Played twice on the tour and Stosur lost both times to Goerges including one in straight sets and another last year in this very tournament.

[gilbertm]

Re: April 23 - April 29 A miracle! Baker won without his spanked opponent retiring.

[ArmandV]

Re: April 23 - April 29

Kerber again to bt the boring pusher Wozniacki @2.46 Pinnacle Bookies are kiding me. Woz lost to Kerber twoo weeks ago in a final, at home, and at her best surface. Now don't tell me she will beat Kerber on Kerber's home soil and on clay - clay has never been the surface of choice for Woz, and she was lucky to get to R2 thanks to Jelena Jankovic retirement.

Dude' date=' do you think Kerber's better surface is clay as well? Aren't you worried about her lack of movement on clay? I am jus wondering whether I should follow? :unsure[/quote'] In 2011 Wozniacki was in the final in the tournament in Stuttgart. In fact she had an ok clay season: Stuttgart - final (lost to Goerges) Madrid - third round (lost to Goerges) Rome - semi final (lost to Sharapova) Brussels - won the tournament Roland Garros - third round (lost to Hantuchova) Kerber's clay season in 2011 was rather bad - she lost in first round in all tournaments apart from Swedish Open where she lost in secound round to Pennetta. The tournament in Copenhagen was indoor hard, Kerber's favourite surface - and Wozniacki's worst surface. I think Wozniacki will prevail today, and since she in 2011 won 80% of the winning clay matches by 2-0 I'm also taking 2-0 with a small stake. Small because Kerber is on home soil and she often takes a set even if she loses. Wozniacki to win 6/10 units 1.65 @ Nordicbet Wozniacki to win 2-0 (-1.5 sets) 1/10 units 2.49 @ Pinnacle

[homunculus]

Re: April 23 - April 29

Dude' date=' do you think Kerber's better surface is clay as well? Aren't you worried about her lack of movement on clay? I am jus wondering whether I should follow? :unsure[/quote'] This is indoor clay. No weather, no wind. Should suit Kerber quite fine. I watched Kerber against Vinci, and it seemed to me that her movement was good. And I watched Woz against JJ, and JJ did break her first and early, but then started to have problems with lower back and was forced to retire. Considering the match in Copenhagen, and considering the odds, I just have to go for it.

[Atko]

Posting from my iPad so can't format posts as per usual. Not the best of days which is disappointing considering yesterday's success. Sela at least forced a push, although Copil was totally outclassed and the Almagro-Raonic overs failed to materialise. Despite my own travails it seems plenty of people did well. Some good calls across the board :ok Hopefully get a few more bets before the week's out. Peace out.

[ImLovinIt]

Re: April 23 - April 29 Class call by homonculus!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Moneyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[homunculus]

Re: April 23 - April 29 Thursday summary Schiavone +5 games > Kvitova @1.87 Pinnacle LOSS Barthel to beat Bartoli @2.04 Pinnacle WIN Kerber again to bt the boring pusher Wozniacki @2.46 Pinnacle WIN Schiavone barely walked in the second set, but did not retire. I'd call it a stupid call by now :-( The rest of the day was quite fine and I am happy to bring the followers into black numbers this week +0.50 flat u for the week +7.84 flat u this season Regarding Kerber's movement (on clay), I suggest to watch 1st point of game 3 in the second set Kerber-Wozniacki match :-) ABSOLUTELY OUTSTANDING !!!!

[ImLovinIt]

Re: April 23 - April 29 Kerber to win tomorrow or comfortable handicap Homungulus?

[junesixth]

Re: April 23 - April 29 Stuttgart, Porsche tennis Grand Prix Mona Barthel to beat Victoria Azarenka @6.0 at StanJames Mona Barthel has had an impressive performance this week in Stuttgart, serving 11 aces against Ivanovic, 7 aces against Bartoli. She destroyed Bartoli who beat Azarenka last month. This is the Barthel we need to beat Azarenka who is very fit and very agile on court. The only way to beat Azarenka is to out hit her and Barthel has already proven she's capable of doing that in the last 2 matches. Azarenka wasn't very impressive her first match against Petkovic who was in poor form, and did you forget Barthel "almost" beat Azarenka their last meeting? I think the odds @ 6.0 is very rewarding and it isn't out of reach. The 21-year-old Barthel said having played Azarenka twice earlier this season made her realize that she could eventually beat her. “It was difficult serving for the match against the world No. 1,” Barthel said. “I am sad I couldn’t win, but I will get another chance.” http://www.taipeitimes.com/

[Alovenac]

Re: April 23 - April 29

Lopez - Nieminen Will be short here, have not enough time to write some long analyse here. Lopez playing very well today against Cipolla and covering my handicap. Service can be better tomorrow, today he had 61% first service and must be saving 2 breakpoints. But the rallys are going good and i think this will be a good factor in this match. Nieminen playing a very long match today against Schwank. Serving very well with 71% first service, but he don't play good enough in the rally and won only 35 from the 94 return points during this match. Against a good server as Lopez, this will be a problem, also on this surface. 3/10 Lopez ML @ 1.71 Pinnacle

Winner.

[ImLovinIt]

Re: April 23 - April 29 +4.5 games Kerber vs Kvitova - 4/9 with Paddy Power + +4.5 games Li Na vs Radwanska - 4/9 with Paddy Power + +4.5 games Stosur vs Sharapova - 4/9 with Paddy Power All as a treble Kerber's on fire and at home. Li Na's the reigning French Open Champion with the head to head being 2 - 2 and the in 2 she's never been battered. Stosur loves the clay, sharapova has a weak serve and regularly serves up double faults. 8/10

[ech0]

Re: April 23 - April 29 does anybody know how Sharapova play now? her h2h against stosur very impressive. Stosur played yesterday against Guerges but i have some doubts about quality of her tennis.. in 1st set she lead very well (6-2) but in 2nd she losse (2-6), maybe she has some problems with her mental.. Sharapova looks more stable and bet to win -1.5 or -2.5 to win looks good.

[homunculus]

Re: April 23 - April 29

Kerber to win tomorrow or comfortable handicap Homungulus?

Betting against Kvitova is always somewhat tricky, because she can pull outstanding performance now and then, but today I am going for the big one against her. Anyway, I noticed that I am losing too much on lost "speculative" bets because always full flat unit goes on them. I need more subtle pricing of the bets with respect to the confidence and the dynamics of the week as it unfolds. Therefore I decided to change the system from FLAT to the usual 10 pts scale system. For the convenience, I shall use the conversion 1 flat u=5 pts to recalculate the results so far: +2.5 pts this week +39.2 pts this season As far as today's bets are concerned, I follow only Stuttgart, so I decided to go for Barthel +5 games > Azarenka @2.07 Pinnacle 2/10 I did not like what I saw yesterday in Vika's match. Petkovic was rusty as hell and should have been destroyed to double bagel, but she even managed to rebreak to 4-4 in the second set, and had she not rolled her ankle, the second set could have been still interesting. Mona has got huge serve and IMO is going to get lots of cheap points from that. One break each set at max is what I think has more than even chance. Li Na to bt Radwanska @2.74 Pinnacle 2/10 Radwanska had health problems with her back last couple of weeks, and in her match against Greta Arn she has made tons of backhand unforced. Wrong fav, IMO. Li Na is in good shape and I would trust the 2011 FO champion here. Kerber to bt Kvitova @2.33 Pinnacle 2/10 I went against Kvitova earlier, and I shall repeat that again. Kvitova has not played much this year. Kerber in Stuttgart is absolutely on fire, while Kvitova's confidence is built on two recent wins over poor Schiavone. And the first win from this weekend was really not superconvincing. If Kerber manages to put the pressure on Kvitova early, she will fold and lose thanks to billions of doublefaults and UE's.

[TD]

Re: April 23 - April 29 Maria Sharapova vs. Samantha Stosur Another tennis pick comes from the biggest and most prestigeous WTA Tour event of this week that takes place in German city Stuttgart. The matches are played on red clay courts in indoors conditions and this makes it a special event in the tennis calendar and different to other clay courts events that take place outdoors. The player that surely likes the indoors conditions is Maria Sharapova and she also commented it: "The good thing about playing indoors is you know what conditions you're going to face, with no wind or different weather conditions. You know what you're going to get during the match, which is nice to play in." Clay is probably the worst surface for Sharapova but she is still reaching the last rounds on regular basis and had imposant 12-2 record on the dirt in 2011. Samantha Stosur, the 2011 US Open champion, likes playing on red clay and is one of the most successful players on the dirt in last years. Stosur is in solid form these days and former Stuttgart finalist but she has enormous problems with players of Sharapova´s style, players that are consistently hitting the ball hard from the baseline. Stosur has not only a negative 1-9 Head 2 Head record with Sharapova but also very bad record with players like Azarenka or Serena Williams. The match up clearly favours Sharapova and the indoors conditions should make it a bit easier for her. For these reasons Maria Sharapova is our next tennis pick. Starting Time: 27 April 2012, 18:30 CET Bet: Sharapova Odds: 1.725 Stake: 7 units Bookmaker: Pinnacle Sports