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April 23 - April 29


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Re: April 23 - April 29

Lorenzi to beat his Italian Countryman Cipolla @ 6/4 with Paddy Power or Blue Square Lorenzi is too much of a clay court warrior to lose to this pusher on Clay and I can't see any other result. Granted Lorenzi will be tired after his final with Querrey tonight, he'll have a day off to recover and still for me manage to overcome Cipolla. TennisInsight.com - MATCH PREVIEW - Paolo Lorenzi v Flavio Cipolla 3-1 in the head to heads. 8/10 in the confidence stakes
I really don't get it why everyone is going with Lorenzi for this one. Yeah sure the guy is in great form, 23/10 this year but just look at his opponents at the tournaments he played. I mean if you leave out the Sarasota challenger some of those guys he played against couldn't afford a bloody plain ticket and come and play in Europe. Also he just played a couple of days ago the final against Querrey and looking at the length at some of his matches i just can't imagine him being able to keep up the rhytm, i saw some of his matches and the guy looks so tired at times it's like his from dawn of the dead. I see him being hugely overrated right now, i mean if i recall corectly he was even favourite against Feliciano Lopez in Houston which is just plain ridiculous. If you look at the h2h stats which are 3-1 in his favour you'll see that two of his wins were in 2008 and 2009 which were some of Flavio's worst years on tour. Since then he has upped his game considerably and unlike Lorenzi he now constantly plays at ATP events were you get opponents who do more than just push the ball over the net. He has the better game, better variety, good technique and he should be also fitter physically. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This one might be a bit late to call but there's a good value at most of the bookies for Yuki Bhambri to beat Marco Chiudinelli. These two seem to have opposite career tracks. The young Bhambri is touted by his fellow countrymen as being the next hot thing out since Leander Paes. He has some good results this year against much more established players like a huge win for his morale in the Davis Cup against Denis Istomin even though it was a dead rubber. His main problem seems to be his concentration level against lesser opponents after a big win. Chiudinelli is the more accomplished player, saw him play a couple of times and the guy obviously has the right stuff but he's just a joke. It's no wonder that at age 30 he has achieved close to nothing in his career and still plays at a low level. I mean this guy gives the impression he really doesn't care if he wins or loses. I saw him lose matches in which he was clearly the better player and lost even though his opponents could barely hit a winner against him. His unforced error is sometimes sky high and his break point conversion rate embarrasing. His work ethic is practically unexistent, he has that "if it goes in good if it doesn't that's that" approach. I mean i've seen him hit his second serve at break point even more aggresive than his first one. Bhambri might still not be able to be up for the challenge just yet but i'm gonna put some spare money on the lad. I guess i'm a hopeless romantic and just can't pass the opportunity to bet against shmucks like Chiudinelli
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Re: April 23 - April 29 Also a late call Yuichi Sugita to beat Daniel King Turner in straight sets. 2,1 at 365. Asian players do tend to bloom later on in their careers and this seems to be the case for Sugita now age 23. He had a fantastic run at Chennai reaching the quarterfinals where he gave Almagro a run for his money and played some really magnificient tennis. Along the way he disposed of Wang, Souza, de Voest, Lu and "die hard" Rochus. Also had a huge win in the Davis cup against Somdev Devvarman in straight sets in a match in which not even the home crowd believed in a win. The future seems bright for the Japanese and for their Davis Cup team. On the other hand Daniel King Turner seems one of those sad cases in which a different career path would have been more suited. The guy is now 27 and has achieved virtually nothing in tennis. Even forever losers like Sam Groth have had their moment in the spotlight at least once when they managed to defeat a more illustrious opponent or managed a great run at a big tournament after coming through qualifiers. Not the case for Turner, he never managed to get his foot in even at challenger level and can see players like Sugita now plays against constantly only on TV. He also had a bad injury last year which meant he had a year off to take up a hobby or two playing only 3 matches. Fair to him though, he seems to be in good shape right now that is if you consider beating Ward or Millman as noteworthy feats. Huge value here on the Japanese, i rarely have such high confidence in a straight sets win bet but there's really only one way here for Sugita to cock up, if he doesn't play with concentration

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Re: April 23 - April 29 Kevin Anderson vs. Malek Jaziri We are about to visit Spanish city Barcelona with today´s tennis pick as we will look at the first round match between Kevin Anderson from South Africa and another African player Malek Jaziri from Tunisia. Kevin Anderson is a player who is profiting from his hard work and making most out of his abilities. He used to be a college player and later a player ranked just inside the Top100 but a lot has changed since last year and now Anderson is stable Top40 player with two ATP titles. Anderson is a big guy who relies on his big serve and powerful groundstrokes but also has limited movement that should be exposed on the slower red clay. He was easily defeated by Bellucci last week but the Brazilian was on a good run in Monte Carlo. With 28 years Malek Jaziri is not any youngster but he was one of the pleasant surprises of last season as he came out of nowhere to finish ranked well inside the Top100. His favourite shot is his forehand and he mentions hard court as his favourite surface but he grew up on the clay courts and surely knows how to play on the dirt. Jaziri played just a few matches on ATP level in his career but still holds a solid 5-8 record on this level. He retired in his last match in Casablanca but it was just due to dizziness and he should be fully fit today. Last interesting mention is that Jaziri trained in Barcelona for more than two years, so this will be familiar conditions for him. Jaziri shoud be able to make it a close match against Anderson, so 5 games handicap on him is on the paper a solid tennis pick! Starting Time: 24 April 2012, 11:10 CET Bet: Jaziri + 5 games Odds: 1.91 Stake: 6 units Bookmaker: 5Dimes

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Re: April 23 - April 29

Also a late call Yuichi Sugita to beat Daniel King Turner in straight sets. 2,1 at 365. Asian players do tend to bloom later on in their careers and this seems to be the case for Sugita now age 23. He had a fantastic run at Chennai reaching the quarterfinals where he gave Almagro a run for his money and played some really magnificient tennis. Along the way he disposed of Wang, Souza, de Voest, Lu and "die hard" Rochus. Also had a huge win in the Davis cup against Somdev Devvarman in straight sets in a match in which not even the home crowd believed in a win. The future seems bright for the Japanese and for their Davis Cup team. On the other hand Daniel King Turner seems one of those sad cases in which a different career path would have been more suited. The guy is now 27 and has achieved virtually nothing in tennis. Even forever losers like Sam Groth have had their moment in the spotlight at least once when they managed to defeat a more illustrious opponent or managed a great run at a big tournament after coming through qualifiers. Not the case for Turner, he never managed to get his foot in even at challenger level and can see players like Sugita now plays against constantly only on TV. He also had a bad injury last year which meant he had a year off to take up a hobby or two playing only 3 matches. Fair to him though, he seems to be in good shape right now that is if you consider beating Ward or Millman as noteworthy feats. Huge value here on the Japanese, i rarely have such high confidence in a straight sets win bet but there's really only one way here for Sugita to cock up, if he doesn't play with concentration
Well....i must say...i'm SHELLSHOCKED by this one. That's why i hate betting o exact score, a tie-break cand always screw up your plans. But for Sugita to lose the match is well...almost unbelievable for me In the first set took all his serves to 0 or 15, had multiple opportunities to break but lost the tie-break and it was all down hill from there.
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Re: April 23 - April 29 Quite a few for me today ... Bernard Tomic to beat Ernests Gulbis x Kevin Anderson to beat Malek Jaziri @ 1.69 with allyoubet 6pts This looks a nice double to me. Gulbis playing awful tennis at the moment. Crashed out in the Rome challenger last week to Greul and lost to Fuscovics in the Davis Cup. Just an impossibly bad mentality holding him back. Tomic played well in Monte Carlo. He's evidently worked on his clay game and his patient tactics will frustrate Gulbis. As for Anderson, he's not a natural claycourter but rarely does he succumb to this level of opponent. Very professional player, good serve and plays big points well. Jaziri has had injury problems and is better on a hard court. Fairly confident this will come up Lukas Lacko to beat Attila Balazs @ 1.65 with panbet 5pts Big quality and experience gap here. Balazs came through qualies well but the young Hungarian didn't have to beat a great deal. Lacko's a massive step up. Probably in his best ever shape at present and has the power to do damage on this court. Very winnable tie for the Slovak. Ivan Dodig to beat Daniel Brands @ 1.65 with panbet 5pts This match will be all about serve but considering Dodig made the latter stages of Barcelona and looked good on clay, I have to favour him in Bucharest. Once Brands' serve goes, he finds it very hard to underpin his game. Clay is his best surface but I reckon the Croat's got more off the deck and is mentally a lot stronger. Could come down to a breaker somewhere but fancy Dodig to prevail. Igor Andreev to beat Diego Junquiera x Pablo Andujar to beat David Goffin x Cedrik-Marcel Stebe to beat Erik Chvojka @ 1.785 with panbet 4pts Trebles aren't usually my gig but happy with this one. Andreev's getting a lot better, mentally and physically. Good showing in Casa two weeks ago and his forehand should be enough to break down Junqueira, who is unfit and slow. I know slider has tipped Goffin and I do rate the Belgian, but he's very inexperienced on clay and this is his first match on the red brick this year. Andujar's very competent on this surface and can see him having too much guile for Goffin. Stebe's been given a massive chance against Chvojka, who is essentially a limited hard court player. Stebe was impressive last year on clay, taking scalps of Davydenko and Ferrero among others, and I expect him to win cosily. Victor Crivoi to beat Jurgen Zopp @ 2.22 with panbet 3pts Crivoi's just coming back from injury and his results in Challengers during March are promising. Home advantage here against Zopp, who has wiped up on the Challenger tour but almost always on hard courts. He's not really build for clay and he's all about fast surfaces. Crivoi has got talent but tends to play in smaller events and is known for being a bit dodgy. I expect a strong showing though on clay, in Romania, and perhaps should be favourite against an unproven dirt player in Zopp. Olivier Rochus +3 games AH v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez @ 1.81 with allyoubet 3pts H2H is nasty for GGL. Rochus leads it 4-0 and although their last meeting was in 2008, I can see the problems for GGL. Rochus will keep the ball low and hustle the Spaniard, who can be very impatient and erratic. Rochus was a little unlucky not to beat Verdasco in Monte Carlo last week and that form is promising for the wee Belgian. Always like going against GGL on a plus so readily backing Rochus here. :hope

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Re: April 23 - April 29

Does anyone think that Seppi @ 1.50 is a good bet?
No, I don't think it is. Seppi's never a particularly good man to back as a favourite. Far more skilful player out of the two but he's very fragile mentally. Rufin's got history on clay, has all the tools to serve well and pick up the odd result here and there. Of course, Seppi's got the match on his racket but he never sits well with me as a 1.50ish favourite, especially in smaller events. I wouldn't bite.
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Re: April 23 - April 29 Balazs - Lacko Quality will be the factor here. Quality who have Lacko a lot more than Balazs. Balazs will be the number 450th of the World Ranking, a unkown for everyone including me. When we look to Lacko, the number 64th of the world ranking and his results, we see a good perfomance last week in Monte Carlo. Beaten Sweeting in straightsets and lost against Nishikori in straightsets 36 36. But he playing well, good enough to beat Balazs here. 3/10 Lacko ML @ 1.67 Sportingbet

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Re: April 23 - April 29 Cipolla - Lorenzi Small pick here. Line looks good as alternative for the over. I don't see Lorenzi here as underdog. He playing well the last weeks on clay, with a final last week in Sarasota (USA). Beaten there Blake in straight sets and loss the final in 3 sets against Querrey. But their is the problem for this Lorenzi. A lot off matches the last week and he was travelled from the USA to Barcelona with not enough rest. Cipolla his last results are good. Beaten Dolgopolov in Casablanca, who was very poor and losing the semi-final against Andujar. But here is a very good factor for him, he had a lot of time more rest than his opponent. 1/10 Lorenzi +3.5 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle

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Re: April 23 - April 29

Balazs - Lacko Quality will be the factor here. Quality who have Lacko a lot more than Balazs. Balazs will be the number 450th of the World Ranking, a unkown for everyone including me. When we look to Lacko, the number 64th of the world ranking and his results, we see a good perfomance last week in Monte Carlo. Beaten Sweeting in straightsets and lost against Nishikori in straightsets 36 36. But he playing well, good enough to beat Balazs here. 3/10 Lacko ML @ 1.67 Sportingbet
Alovenac,your one of the top tipsters on this thread but I gonna go against you on this selection. Lacko has only played 11 competitive games on clay in past 4 years,losing 8 & Balazs just 2 days ago beat Klizan in two comfortable sets 6-3 6-4.Balazs has played the majority of his career on clay & I think he has a big advantage today. Balazs win for me.
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Re: April 23 - April 29 Fernando Verdasco vs Steve Darcis Barcelona Open over 20.5games@1.94 Unibet(4/10) Verdasco was taken to 3 sets by Rochus & Dodig in Monte Carlo,I can't see no reason why Darcis cant at least get 9 games today.Played Golubev yesterday in a close 3 setter but did play well.This will be a close game today & I'm happy to take the overs. :hope

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Re: April 23 - April 29 Attila Balazs to beat Lukas Lacko Burcharest @2.55 Pinnacle(5/10) Attila Balazs to beat Lukas Lacko 2-0 Burcharest @4.5 Coral(2/10) Balazs has played the qualifying games into this tournament steamrolling past Kralia,Klizan & Chvojka.His win vs Klizan(seeded 94) was impressive as he had been in very good form in 2012.Balazs has played nearly all his career on clay & this is one of the major factors why he will win today.Lacko been playing well on the hard/indoor courts this year but this is his 1st competitive game on clay for nearly a year.His last two games on clay were straight set loses to Dancevic & Jungueira.I can only see a victory for Balazs today. :hope

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Re: April 23 - April 29 Savannah Challenger - Brian Baker to beat Michael Russell @ 7/4 BET 365 Strength (6/10) I've backed Brian Baker a few times in the last couple of weeks and I'm going to do it again today. He gave Querrey a real fight last week in Sarasota despite basically giving away the first four games and he had Querrey by the scrotum in the last set only to relax his grip and lose a match he should have won. He actually did better against Querrey than Michael Russell did some two days later. Russell seems to be in very good form and did well here last year but he's played alot tennis, both in Houston and Sarasota, and at 34 years old he might find a third tournaround in as many weeks too much against an in form hombre such as Baker. Brian is just absolutely smashing everyone at the moment, his form showing no signs of dipping, and he should get his first 'major' scalp of his comeback today against a fatigued Russell. :hope

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Re: April 23 - April 29

What do you make of Safarova's chances against Li Na Atko? Price is very generous considering the form Safa's been in.
Well, I am not Atko, but I'd guess that everyone would agree that going against last year's FO champion one month before FO on clay at a premiere event is not good idea. Especially at the price around 2.3-2.5. Had it been 3.5 and up, then maybe.
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Re: April 23 - April 29 Screw it Safarova to beat Li Na @ 17/10 with Panbet Believe me Safarova on clay this season is a force and Li Na isn't the same player she was on clay when she won the French last year, these odds are dictated by the fact she won the French only a year back. 6.5/10 in the confidence stakes

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Re: April 23 - April 29 Challenger Sao Paulo: Tiago Fernandes to beat Dina Marcan @ 2/1 BET 365 Strength (5/10) If it wasn't for Fernandes retiring last week then I would be even more confident about this one. However, he's only 19 and players that young recover quickly. It may have just been illness as well. Anyway, the bookies have got this wrong if Fernandes is fit and they are doing their usual prices based on ranking only and not looking into form and surface. Dina Marcan is average on clay, very average, and does all his best stuff on hard courts. He's also in poor form so that should make him even more vulnerable on the surface. Tiago Fernandes is a pretty talented player and has played at high level in recent months, beating the likes of Augustin Velotti and really pushing Mektic and Kirche as well. Overall, I would have him favourite here. Again, fitness is the only thing that makes me wary. At least we know he's not afraid to retire though. :hope

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Re: April 23 - April 29

I am probably missing something, but anyone knows why Anna Tatishvili is @3.90 underdog against the spaniard Garbine Muguruza Blanco in Fes-Morocco today?
Blanco has been in pretty scintillating form, seemingly come out of nowhere, but she is due a little set back and Tatishvili could be value there. So many tempting bets today. Barrios to beat Petkovic at nearly 3/1 also looks good. Petkovic should take a while to get back to her level after injury and Barrios beat Bartoli and Safarova in Stuttgart last year.
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Re: April 23 - April 29

Tomic - Gulbis Pick also for tomorrow. But i think odds will be totally dropped till 1.20/1.25. Tomic showing good perfomance last week in Monte Carlo on clay. After 3 years when he would not won a match on clay. No words to say he is the fav here and odds are to high. Gulbis is a falling talent. People say years a go, that he will make it to the top 10. Now he is on the 86th place on the ATP World Ranking and in my eyes that is to high for hem. Dramatic perfomance this year and beaten last week in Rome by Greul 26 46. 1/10 Tomic 2-0 @ 2.00 Bet365 5/10 Tomic ML @ 1.45 Pinnacle
Easy winners :).
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Re: April 23 - April 29

Cipolla - Lorenzi Small pick here. Line looks good as alternative for the over. I don't see Lorenzi here as underdog. He playing well the last weeks on clay, with a final last week in Sarasota (USA). Beaten there Blake in straight sets and loss the final in 3 sets against Querrey. But their is the problem for this Lorenzi. A lot off matches the last week and he was travelled from the USA to Barcelona with not enough rest. Cipolla his last results are good. Beaten Dolgopolov in Casablanca, who was very poor and losing the semi-final against Andujar. But here is a very good factor for him, he had a lot of time more rest than his opponent. 1/10 Lorenzi +3.5 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle
Then why are you taking Lorenzi not to lose by 4 games? lol
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Re: April 23 - April 29

Fernando Verdasco vs Steve Darcis Barcelona Open over 20.5games@1.94 Unibet(4/10) Verdasco was taken to 3 sets by Rochus & Dodig in Monte Carlo,I can't see no reason why Darcis cant at least get 9 games today.Played Golubev yesterday in a close 3 setter but did play well.This will be a close game today & I'm happy to take the overs. :hope
I mean WTF Darcis can only win 4 GAMES & you got players like Rochus & Dodig winning 12 & 10 games vs Verdasco at Monte Carlo. I was so confident with this bet & again take another hit to the bankroll :wall Sorry all that followed.....And it seems like another one of my bets with Balazs is gonna **** up for the day Gutted
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Re: April 23 - April 29

Then why are you taking Lorenzi not to lose by 4 games? lol
More quality and form at the moment, only to tricky with the travelling time here for Lorenzi.
you're a bit unlucky with balazs 2-0 here' date=' Lacko saved 4 set points in 1st set and lost 2nd[/quote'] No unlucky, Balazs saved 5 bp in de second set and Lacko 0.
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Re: April 23 - April 29

Balazs - Lacko Quality will be the factor here. Quality who have Lacko a lot more than Balazs. Balazs will be the number 450th of the World Ranking, a unkown for everyone including me. When we look to Lacko, the number 64th of the world ranking and his results, we see a good perfomance last week in Monte Carlo. Beaten Sweeting in straightsets and lost against Nishikori in straightsets 36 36. But he playing well, good enough to beat Balazs here. 3/10 Lacko ML @ 1.67 Sportingbet
I think this will be a fair result. Lacko was a early break up in de first set, but must be saved 4 setpoints later. In the second set he will be 0 break-points to save and Balasz 5 break points to save. A low % of the first service in the third for Lacko with as result: He will lost this match.
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Re: April 23 - April 29

"he was traveled from the USA to Barcelona with not enough rest." I traveled from Brazil to Frankfurt and I felt great! Than back to my town in Romania again with the plane and also that trip wasn't exhausting!
Well judging from the 1st set score here i think lorenzi may be just a little tired....
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