western skies Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th Mixed bag for me yesterday, with the Carter v Jones frames bet and the O'Sullivan v Robbo 50 breaks bet both landing, but Jones falling short of the win and, more importantly, my outright on Robertson going down. All in all, that leaves me +13.17 for the tournament with one outright still running. Need Maguire to beat Carter (sorry Kev & Russ!) to guarantee the each-way part of my bet. :hope One for the 2nd semi-final: 5pts - R O'Sullivan (-5.5 frames) to beat M Stevens @ evens with Paddy Power I'm a Matthew Stevens fan, but even I can't quite believe he's in the semi-finals of the Worlds on current form. Since regaining his top 16 spot, his game had slumped again for me and I really didn't see him getting past round 2 at best at the Crucible. Hats off to him for making the semis therefore, but it has to be said he's had a very kind draw to get there (not facing a top 16 player up to now) and in Marco Fu and Ryan Day, 2 opponents whose awful performances made life very easy indeed. Watching the 8-0 session against Day, it was pretty clear that although Matthew can still score heavily at his best, he's some way below that level here. A series of 40 breaks and just one over 60 was enough to win all 8 frames in that session, but it will be nowhere near enough against O'Sullivan, and Matthew needs to up his game another level or two if he wants to compete. As for Ronnie, I had the feeling that the winner of the tournament would come from his match against Robbo, and nothing that I've seen elsewhere has changed my opinion on that. The main danger to Ronnie is his attitude and if he starts taking liberties with the table or his opponent (as he did briefly at 9-5 up against Robertson), then he could suffer the consequences. For the most part though, the Rocket has seemed calm and focused up to now, and if he maintains that approach then I really can't see Matthew causing him anything more than minor inconvenience on route to his 4th world final. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThusPrider Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th That Carter bet is looking good for you guys! I'm so pleased for Ali and a big fan of his. Looks like hes forgotten about his health issues! Great swerve around the blue and the brown to pot the red at the other end of the table. Unbelievable shot Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
owenclass Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th Ronnie O Sullivan vs Matthew Stevens Ronnie O Sullivan to win first four frames 4/1 skybet Ronnie O Sullivan -5.5 frames 8/11 skybet in nearly every session he always has a great start where he manages to win the first few frames quickly i have been impressed by him in this tournament where he manages to win quick frames in succession Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th I'm going to take 1 bet in running today. R.O'Sullivan v M.Stevens, under 25.5 frames, 4pts @ 11/10 BlueSq Maybe I've missed something here (or miscalculated, it is early :lol) but I'm sure this is too big a price to ignore. Currently standing at 11-5 to Ronnie, he needs just 6 more to progress into tomorrow's final. Essentially, I'm looking for Ronnie to win this first to 6 battle with the concession of no more than 3 frames. Let's put this in perspective, he opened up the first session winning in 5-3 and the 2nd session 6-2 so odds of 11/10 on him winning 6 frames giving away 3 or less looks a tidy odds against bet. Ronnie is hitting the ball well, scoring heavily and I feel that Stevens will be battered & bruised today. With victory in sight for the Rocket and defeat inevitable for Stevens, it wouldn't surprise me if ROS finished the match off a full session early. He looks very focused and there doesn't seem to be any of the old ROS antics so I'll take him to keep his head and close this match out comfortably. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th That Carter bet is looking good for you guys! I'm so pleased for Ali and a big fan of his. Looks like hes forgotten about his health issues! Great swerve around the blue and the brown to pot the red at the other end of the table. Unbelievable shot Ali Carter is a knobhead! Top snooker player though. Nice looking bet Russy, fingers crossed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th Going into the final and I stand at +32.36pts with bets still running at 50/1 EW on Gould for high break and 25/1 EW Carter to win, so have at least the Carter winnings to go on top. With that in the bag, I'll take 2 in the final. A.Carter highest break v R.O'Sullivan, 3pts @ 7/4 Bet365 A.Carter v R.O'Sullivan, over 30.5 frames, 5pts @ 11/10 Boylesports I cannot wait for this final, I think it will be an absolute cracker. Ronnie has been in imperious form throughout the last 2 weeks but so has Ali Carter who is hitting the ball as well as I've ever seen him. In short, I think this final will go to the wire and I don't see how we won't get the required 31 frames here. 18-13 or closer is, for me, a superb bet as I think Day 1 will see an evenly matched couple of players go head to head, with 9-7 either way being the biggest lead I'd expect either to have. Whilst Ronnie can pot them for anywhere, what I've been impressed with has been his safety play, similar to Ali. That actually could be the key to this final. From a break building perspective, I like Ali for the high break. Ronnie leads 9-5 on centuries but Ali has hit the 2 highest breaks which is crucial. Ali has hit tons in 3 of his 4 games whilst Ronnie's hit at least 1 in each round. In the 4 rounds, it would be 2-2 on the high break so 7/4 looks value to me in what should be a closely contested, mouth watering final. Good luck to everyone else and really hopes that amazing 100/1 Jones high break tip comes in for Kev :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishy25 Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th Top shouts on Carter guys! Hope he does the business for you in the final Russ :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThusPrider Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th Ali Carter is a knobhead! Top snooker player though. Nice looking bet Russy, fingers crossed. :( I guess people have different opinions! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThusPrider Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th Going into the final and I stand at +32.36pts with bets still running at 50/1 EW on Gould for high break and 25/1 EW Carter to win, so have at least the Carter winnings to go on top. With that in the bag, I'll take 2 in the final. A.Carter highest break v R.O'Sullivan, 3pts @ 7/4 Bet365 A.Carter v R.O'Sullivan, over 30.5 frames, 5pts @ 11/10 Boylesports I cannot wait for this final, I think it will be an absolute cracker. Ronnie has been in imperious form throughout the last 2 weeks but so has Ali Carter who is hitting the ball as well as I've ever seen him. In short, I think this final will go to the wire and I don't see how we won't get the required 31 frames here. 18-13 or closer is, for me, a superb bet as I think Day 1 will see an evenly matched couple of players go head to head, with 9-7 either way being the biggest lead I'd expect either to have. Whilst Ronnie can pot them for anywhere, what I've been impressed with has been his safety play, similar to Ali. That actually could be the key to this final. From a break building perspective, I like Ali for the high break. Ronnie leads 9-5 on centuries but Ali has hit the 2 highest breaks which is crucial. Ali has hit tons in 3 of his 4 games whilst Ronnie's hit at least 1 in each round. In the 4 rounds, it would be 2-2 on the high break so 7/4 looks value to me in what should be a closely contested, mouth watering final. Good luck to everyone else and really hopes that amazing 100/1 Jones high break tip comes in for Kev :hope Cant resist! I've followed you on your over 30.5 bet, Russ! 18-13 or more looks very achievable! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevshat Posted May 6, 2012 Author Share Posted May 6, 2012 Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th Two for me in the final. 4pts A.Carter (+5.5 frames) to beat R.O'Sullivan Evs Stan James 5pts Under 23.5 50+ breaks 10/11 Paddy Power This final looked like the final from a long way out so now that it is here I'm hoping it will be a bit of a classic. I certainly think it will be a close final with Ali Carter playing some excellent matchplay snooker in the mould of his friend Peter Ebdon. So far in this tournament we haven't seen Carter take a single risk and his patient approach since the second round has frustrated his opponents enough to get a lead and he hasn't looked back. One thing he will have to do is score well in this match but I still expect him to keep things tight and put balls safe at every opportunity and try and frustrate Ronnie into pushing the boat out more than he would like to. I think we will see a few scrappy frames in the final and some really good tactical frames and that is why I don't expect to see more than 23 50 breaks in the match unless we have more than a normal amount of frames with more than one 50 in it. I don't think we'll see the full 35 frames. I'd expect it to be 18-14 or 18-15ish so we would only need 10 frames without a 50 break and I think that is a possibility especially if the table plays awkward for a session early on and even more so if a bit of fatigue comes into play. Carter's take what is there and keep it tight game has been working well this week and given that he hasn't missed a lot when he is in, if he leaves the table it is through a loss of position which he makes up for with a good safety, I think he can win at least 13 frames in what I think will be a very interesting final. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
western skies Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th Great call by all those on Carter and well done Russ for some eye-popping profit for the fortnight. :clap:clap Well, I lost my 2nd and final outright with the demise of Maguire yesterday. I had hoped that Mags' would have learned from past mistakes by now but alas he allowed Carter's gameplan to frustrate him and even admitted that he'd underestimated his opponent prior to the match. It seems some people never learn and I have my doubts whether he'll ever have a better opportunity to reach a world final in the future. On the plus side, Ronnie saw off a spirited Matthew Stevens and covered the handicap in doing so, leaving me +16.17 for the tournament now. Just the one for the final for me and, rather worryingly, I'm going against the majority view on here: 4pts - R O'Sullivan (-6.5 frames) to beat A Carter @ 2.25 with Paddy Power Fair play to Ali Carter, he got his tactics spot on against Maguire in the semi finals, frustrating his opponent with cautious (at times negative) safety play and waiting for the mistakes to come. It worked a treat and was, no doubt, partly the brain child of his mentor Peter Ebdon. The question is, will he adopt the same approach for the final and, if so, will it have the same effect on Ronnie? I'd suggest that the answer to the first part of the question is yes. If something is working, then why change it and, with a head to head record in major/televised tournaments that reads O'Sullivan 12-0 Carter, it's obvious that Ali's usual attacking gameplan has never been successful against the Rocket. As for the second part of the question, unfortunately for Ali, I think the answer will be no. Tactical players have bogged O'Sullivan down in the past, but rarely when he's playing at or close to his best, which he certainly has been over the last fortnight. The Rocket has been prepared to showcase his very underrated safety play when necessary and , bar the odd flash of petulance, he hasn't allowed himself to become frustrated and lose focus when things aren't going his way. With such a dominant head to head record against his opponent, I see no reason why that should change for the final, and I fully expect O'Sullivan to pull away from the Captain with a decisive run of frames at some point as he has done in every match he's played so far (he's recorded at least a 6 frame winning burst in all 4 rounds so far). That being the case, I'm happy to take an odds against punt on Ronnie winning this final no worse than 18-11. Good luck everyone and thanks to all the contributors to this thread over the last 2 weeks for a hugely enjoyable (and profitable!) read. :clap:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
owenclass Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th Ronnie O Sullivan vs Ali Carter under 30.5 frames 10/11 skybet under 5.5 50 breaks first session 4/5 skybet Ronnie O Sullivan first four frames 4/1 skybet well he is really the best snooker since his last world title so it is going to tough for his opponent i expect he will be nervous at first where Ronnie will be able to capitalize and win some quick frames with not many high breaks in the match Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThusPrider Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th Not a profitable tournament for me...just the two bets on Bingham in the first round and over 30.5 frames in the final :sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThusPrider Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th Well done to those that made a profit this year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
western skies Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th Last piece of housekeeping for me with the -6.5 frames handicap on the final coming in on the nose, it means I finish the tournament at +21.17 pts. Very happy with that considering just how unpredictable it turned out to be. Not a classic World Championship for me as, despite 71 centuries, I felt the standard wasn't as high as it's been in previous years, but nevertheless a thoroughly enjoyable fortnight. Once again, many thanks to all who contributed to this thread and congratulations to those who finished in profit. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th A poor final for me with both bets losing, missing out on the 25/1 Carter outright and Ronnie hitting a 141 that denies me a EW payout on a 50/1 shot. That said, I still finished at +29.11pts which I'm delighted about. Well done to everyone else who finished in profit, especially Western Skies with over 20pts profit and Kevshat who landed the EW spoils on a terrific 100/1 high break bet in Jamie Jones :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th Great stuff lads... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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