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kevshat

World Championship - April 21st - May 7th

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Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th

Judd Trump vs Ali Carter over 22.5 frames 4/5 skybet this should be close trump is not playing his best and his opponent is playing great Andrew Higginson vs Jamie Jones over 21.5 frames 4/6 skybet two players who are evenly matched in playing ability and both are desperate to win
Could you expand on reasoning please mate?

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Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th

Second one I bet on for the 2nd round was Jones- Higginson. To be honest I don´t know much at all about Jones, but having seen most of Higginson´s first round match I believe a) he has the mental strength and form to make it an even match right now against most players b) makes enough unforced mistakes and maybe lacks the absolute class to sweep anyone, so I took o22 @2,2 at Bet365 (5/10) There may be statistical data to prove me wrong (that I´ve never heard of) or something related to style of play, but Bet365 offering 2,10 in the first frame for 50+ break also seemed like a very good offer. At this stage everyone has the breakbuilding and potting skills to easily shoot 50, so I went 7,5/10 on this one. Thanks to everyone for their tips on the snooker betting (to which I´m very new) and to those memebers from other sub-forums that I´ve very much enjoyed reading for past months! Hope you get at least some food for thought from my posts, please don´t follow with your last money....and if you have any criticism/pointers for me, I´d much appreciate! (Could mods maybe advice how to properly link the bookmakers?)
Ding's spectacular meltdown leaves me +0.5 for the tournament so far, but with both outrights still standing which is something of an achievement given the carnage of the 1st round. Going to take an interest in both 2nd round matches starting today. 5pts - N Robertson (-5.5 frames) to beat D Gilbert @ evens with William Hill I'm in total agreement with Kev on this one. I've already backed Robbo on the outright, but I just can't resist getting involved again at this price, which is just far too generous in my opinion. Gilbert scores well, but his tactical game looked about 20 years out of date against Martin Gould in round 1 - far too negative and unlikely to force an error out of an opponent as tactically sound as Robertson is. As Kev has said, the Aussie looked in ominous form against Ken Doherty and I think he has the game to completely dominate and frustrate an inexperienced player such as Gilbert. I'm tempted to take some of the juicier handicap prices up to -8.5 frames, but on reflection I'll play it safe and take the very decent price on offer here. 5pts - S Maguire (-3.5 frames) to beat J Perry @ evens with William Hill Breaking a cardinal rule here and again taking a bet on one of my outrights, but Hills are being incredibly generous here. Joe Perry's 10-1 win over Graeme Dott looks impressive on paper, but in truth he only had to turn up to win that match such was Dott's abject level of performance. Graeme himself suggested Joe had played "rubbish" which, whilst a bit harsh, isn't far from the truth as he compiled just the one break over 50 in taking an 8-1 lead and spurned numerous chances, safe in the knowledge that Graeme would leave him another one in a minute. I'd expect Perry to up his game here, but he'll need to move up several gears to even stand a chance against Maguire, who has been in something approaching vintage form since the turn of the year. Once again, it's hard to see Maguire's opponent troubling him unduly in this match and evens for the Scot to win 13-9 or better seems like too good an opportunity to pass up.
With everything settled up (except the Gould high break outright where a 136' date=' tied with Kev's Jones bet, holds 2nd), I'm at [b']+6.63pts after the 1st round. J.Higgins v S.Hendry, over 21.5 frames, 4pts @ 9/10 Boylesports S.Hendry to beat J.Higgins, 2pts @ 12/5 Ladbrokes The battle of the 2 Scotsmen here and I really think the old guard in Hendry will give the current world champ a good match here. In Round 1, Higgins didn't look particularly good in scraping past Liang Wenbo 10-9. For sure, he will improve here but it will have to be significant improvement to beat an in form Hendry. In the 1st round, Hendry played a brilliant first session, leading top 16 player Stuart Bingham 8-1 including that magnificent 147. No surprise to me to see this one go the full distance in what I hope could be a Crucible classic. With the amount of shocks this year too, proving that Barry's new regime is bringing the top players closer together means that I can actually see the 7 time world champ winning this. He looks good value to me and whilst I'm very confident on the overs, I'll also take a little bit on the Hendry win. R.Day (-2.5 frames) to beat C.Yupeng, 4pts @ 11/10 Ladbrokes A 2nd match featuring 2 qualifiers who had superb wins in the first round and both will see this as an opportunity to progress again. The one I'm sweet on is the Welshman, Ryan Day, who will bid to add another Chinese to his victory list at this year's Worlds. In Round 1, he came from 9-6 back to take out one of the pre tournament favs in Ding Junhui and, at times, he looked back to the form that took up to number 5 in the world not too long ago, although Ding did let him back in especially in that final frame. The way he closed it out though was impressive and I think he'll be buoyed by that. Cao meanwhile played well to dispose of Mark Allen but I really feel Allen was out of sorts and the win wasn't nearly as impressive as Day's. On top of that, it's anyones guess how he will react to Allen's comments after the match and this could be 1 round too far. If Day can get off to a good start, he could run away with this and he looks value to win this 13-10 or better.
Getting involved in one match tomorrow. A.Carter (+3.5 frames) to beat J.Trump, 4pts @ 11/10 Paddy Power A.Carter to beat J.Trump, 2pts @ 11/4 Ladbrokes A.Carter to win World Championship, 0.5pts EW @ 25/1 Totesport (1/2 odds 1-2) Eggs in basket time here and come the end of the weekend, I may look totally stupid yet again but I think the Captain is a decent shout here. We all know Judd is the golden boy and I do accept that he was suffering with illness in his match against Dominic Dale. However, I think 10-7 flattered him in the end and despite the fact he's probably feeling better now, he'll still have to up his game to beat a resurgent Ali Carter. Trump is often priced up on his reputation and I think that's the case again here. Carter meanwhile has had an awful season because of ill health but he's looked a different person in his first round win. Although Mark Davis was also feeling poorly, you can't disguise the fact Carter hit the ball well, made some great breaks and looked back to somewhere approaching his battling best. He also revealed that a new diet had helped his health and that the pain he felt everytime he played is now not as bad. With Carter's return to form and Judd's illness still perhaps not fully out of his system, these 2 looks very closely matched so the 11/4 on the Captain to win look too big. Even if Judd does prevail, I think it will be close and I think Ali will take at least 10 frames. Taking the 2 match bets meant I had to back him outright too. His current odds of 25/1 are massive as, if he wins this, you'd fancy him to make the final as there's only 1 potential top 16 player he could face, that would be the beatable Stephen Maguire. Hoping for a smooth flight passage through to the Crucible final and, in a year of shocks, how apt would it be for a player who was considering quitting the game to win the crown.
No change for me with Maguire covering his handicap, but Robbo unable to follow suit, so still +0.5 for the tournament. Robertson had a chance of covering the -5.5 right up to the final session, but in fairness Dave Gilbert put up a better show than I was expecting and fully deserved to take the match closer than that. Onto today and after much head scratching, I just can't find a bet I like the look of in the O'Sullivan v Williams match. Ronnie on the handicap looks the most likely call, but the odds seem pretty stingy to me. Looking back at their previous World Championship meetings (2006, 2008, & 2010), Ronnie has won all 3 but would have covered the -3.5frames handicap only once (a 13-7 win in 2008). It's hard to know when to take MJW seriously and when not to, but judging from some of his recent comments on Twitter, this seems to have developed into something of a grudge match for him since losing to Ronnie in China last month and that could work in his favour or against him. He'll be well up for the match, but will he put even more pressure on himself in the process? All in all, with the odds they way they are, it's a no bet for me. 4pts - A Carter (+3.5 frames) to beat J Trump @ evens with Paddy Power 5pts - Total 50+ breaks in match: Over 15.5 @ 10/11 with Bet 365 At long last, Ali Carter seems to be in a good place both with his health issues and his snooker. He's started a strict dietary regime which finally seems to have gotten his battle with Crohn's under control and he showed against an admittedly off colour Mark Davis that he still remembers how to play some top quality snooker. His scoring was particularly impressive in that match, with 2 centuries and 4 more breaks over 60 in the 10 frames he won. Judd Trump meanwhile suffered badly from the effects of food poisoning against Dominic Dale and will have been a relieved man just to get through the match. He should certainly be more or less recovered by now, but how much a bout of sickness will have taken out of him remains to be seen. For me, Trump is also in danger of believing his own publicity and listening to those around him who may not have his best interests at heart. His game borders on reckless at times and, when he's not firing at 100%, he risks becoming ragged and plays far too open. The improved tactical brain he showed when winning in China last year seems to have been sacrificed at the altar of "naughty snooker" and that makes him vulnerable when things aren't going his way. I still fancy this match might be a step too far (and too soon) for the rejuvenated Carter, but I agree with Kev that it could be a lot closer than the bookies think and I'll take no worse than a 13-10 scoreline at these odds. Carter's improved scoring power and the likelihood of a fairly close match also make the overs line on 50+ breaks very appealing at slight odds-on.
From what I saw in the first session there appears to be very little between these 2. I missed the earlier handicap but have taken Carter +2.5 in play with SJ @ evens.
Taking 2 more for today, sorry don't have much time. M.Stevens (-1.5 frames) to beat B.Hawkins, 4pts @ Evs Paddy Power The 4th quarter draw has opened up massively with just Stevens left winning from the seeded players in Round 1. He must see this as a massive opportunity and should be much shorter priced to beat Barry Hawkins in this. The prize is a Crucible QF and it would be against a fellow Welshman in Ryan Day so I can't believe that Stevens won't be hugely fired up for this. In Round 1, there were plenty of big victories (ie, with opponents scoring under 5 frames). Stevens/Fu was one such game with Stevens going 8-1 up before disposing him 10-3. During that match, he played some cracking stuff rolling back the years similar to a certain Mr Hendry. Hawkins, meanwhile, had a brilliant result by beating World No 1 Mark Selby by the same result. But, let's not go overboard. Selby was clearly suffering from a neck injury and never looked like winning. I see nothing to fear in that match and surely Hawkins is priced up on the fact he beat Mark Selby. Crazy in my opinion and he'll have to improved loads to trouble the Welshman and I'm happy to have Stevens on a very low handicap of -1.5. J.Jones to beat A.Higginson, 3pts @ 11/8 Paddy Power I'm gambling on a great few days for the Welsh and taking young Jamie Jones to get rid of Andrew Higginson. Both of these players had tremendous 1st round victories, Jones beat Smurf 10-8 and Higgy getting rid of form horse Stephen Lee 10-6. Anything more for either player is a bonus and I think this could be a close run thing. Higginson is a solid yet unspectacular player but, to me, is only 1 match away from a shocker and I just don't know whether he can sustain his form. Lee gave him plenty of chances in Round 1. Jones meanwhile was more impressive to me. He played some tremendous snooker, hitting breaks of 136 and 134 on his Crucible debut which, in anyones book, is a great standard. What I also liked was that Murphy came out afterwards saying he thought he played well himself, was happy with his performance, enjoyed the match but was beaten by a better player. That's some compliment and I'd prefer to be on a player that's in great form rather than just looking at the scoreline. Jones already came here with huge confidence having beat Higgins last month but that 1st round victory will have sent it soaring even further. The pockets will look like buckets and I can see him getting through to the quarters. It is a must have bet at the prices which I think are the wrong way round.
Judd Trump vs Ali Carter over 22.5 frames 4/5 skybet this should be close trump is not playing his best and his opponent is playing great Andrew Higginson vs Jamie Jones over 21.5 frames 4/6 skybet two players who are evenly matched in playing ability and both are desperate to win
Sensational tipping in the second round gentlemen. Here's to a profitable quarter finals :ok QF odds:
Tuesday 1 May 2012 Player 1 Player 2 BPP
maximize.gif Day, R v Stevens, M (10:00 BST) 2.4 1.75 98.81 %
maximize.gif Hendry, S v Maguire, S (10:00 BST) 2.72 1.57 100.40 %
maximize.gif Jones, Jamie v Carter, A (14:30 BST) 3.75 1.45 95.63 %
maximize.gif O'Sullivan, R v Robertson, N (14:30 BST) 1.66 2.5 100.00 %

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Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th Some fantastic shouts in here, excellent stuff guys:clap Personally, I have a cracking 2nd round taking me to +29.86pts for the tournament so far, with outright bets still standing on Gould high break at 50's and Carter outright at 25's. Decided to take just the 1 bet in the quarters. R.Day v M.Stevens, over 22.5 frames, 4pts @ 11/10 Skybet I asked the bookies for a price on a Welshman to win this but unfortunately they hadn't priced up the market :lol Instead, I decided to go in with the overs. It's now quarter finals time at the Crucible which means lots of nerves and players limping over the finish line. I fancy Matthew Stevens to win this but I think the way Ryan Day finished his match with Cao was exceptional and he'll come into this full of confidence. Of the 4 QF's, this has the potential to be the closest for me and the fact it's a battle of the countrymen adds spice to the battle. Neither of these would honestly have expected to make it this far so anything from here will be a bonus and it's really difficult to separate them. I see the opening 2 sessions being pretty tight and don't expect more than a 9-7 scoreline either way. From there, it's anyones game at Ali Carter proved but the key to this bet is that neither of them are the best at closing matches out. If we do get to 9-7, I think it'll be long odds on that we get a 13-10 or closer scoreline and, for that reason, I'll take the overs at what I feel is a big price.

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Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th Superb stuff Russ, and everyone else in profit so far :clap:clap. +7.37pts for me after the second round which started badly but fortunately finished a lot better. I still have outrights on the highest break and Stevens running so hopefully they can payout something too. 3 to begin with in the quarter finals which in the main I'll look at again in running but I like the break markets. 4pts M.Stevens vs R.Day - Over 2.5 centuries Evs Paddy Power I see no reason why we are getting this sort of a price on two men who are cueing really well and more importantly scoring very well. Day didn't manage a century against Ding but he fired in three against Cao in the last round and he had a couple of 87 breaks and a 72 break so he is scoring really well while Stevens isn't scoring too badly either. Stevens stuck in three centuries in his match against Barry Hawkins and he also had three breaks of over 80 in that match as well so both men come into what I foresee as being a relatively close match in good scoring form. As Russ says above I think this will be quite close too and I wouldn't rule out this going all the way. What I like about this bet is they play two sessions on the first day of the match so they should be nicely warmed up for big breaks towards the end of the first session and in the second session which is the heartbeat of any best of 25 frame match. With six tons between them and both liking to go for their shots rather than get bogged down in safety shots I think we can see another three centuries in a tournament of century breaks. 4pts S.Hendry Over 6.5 50+ breaks vs S.Maguire Evs Paddy Power One thing Stephen Hendry has never lost during his decline over the last few years has been his ability to score when in among the balls and he has shown that in this tournament. I actually fancy him to win this match but I'll see a session played first I think because it has to be said although he's beaten two top 16 players in the tournament so far their performances were abject at best. However Hendry has had a 147 this week and a couple of other tons and a raft of 50+ breaks. In fact he's covered this line and some in both of his matches so far and Maguire is very much an all out aggressor who does leave himself open to be hit with big breaks when he misses which over 25 frames he invariably will. As poorly as Higgins and Bingham played they didn't make the breaks for Hendry so I'll take Hendry to have at least seven 50+ breaks in this match because generally when he wins a frame in his career he has scored well to do so, especially when he's hitting the cue ball as sweetly as he is at the minute. 5pts A.Carter (-2.5 frames) to beat J.Jones 4/5 Paddy Power I've a bit of a soft spot for Jamie Jones in this tournament because his 136 break is looking good for a pretty lucrative each way pay out in the high break market but although he's had an excellent tournament I do think it will end at the hands of a rejuvenated Ali Carter. Carter has played some lovely snooker in this tournament and but for Judd having some quite ridiculous luck against him in the last round Carter would have disposed of him a lot easier than the 13-12 he eventually did beat him by. One thing which could be a concern could be how much that took out of Carter but he's been the distance here and comes into the tournament fresh and talking up his new diet and generally looking good. Jamie Jones just showed signs that the tournament was catching up with him in the final session of his match against Andrew Higginson. He missed a lot of easy balls and luckily wasn't punished. When the winning line came he bounded through it but if he gives Carter the chances he gave Higginson I'm not sure Carter will be so kind as to hand them back with the way he has scored in this tournament so far. Carter can mix it both ways as he showed against Trump and I just get the feeling that Jones will have a very bad 6-2 or 7-1 type session in this match. If he does you don't come back from that and I think the Captain will ensure a safe and relatively early landing to this particular flight on Wednesday evening.

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Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th Thanks for the writeups Kev, was jus wondering, wouldn't it be better and possibly more logical to take Mathew Stevens to make atleast 2 centuries as opposed to both of them accumulating atleast 3 ... as granted Ryan failed to make a single one in his second round match, the chances of him making two in a match against a somewhat more skilled opponent I guess you could say, would be less? So in other words backing over 2.5 between them both would be virtually the same as backing over 1.5 for Stevens and possibly less risky with also a better price @ 6/5? I'm deliberating between the two and would like your take on it.

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Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th Looks like a fairly profitable 2nd round for everyone - excellent stuff guys :clap:clap With Carter more than covering the handicap and the 50 breaks coming in, I'm now +9.05 for the tournament with both outrights remaining. In fairness, the over 15.5 line on the 50+ breaks squeaked in with 14 50s and 2 tons in the match, which isn't a lot in 25 frames, but then again there were a lot of tight games with some surprising misses, and I'll take squeaking it every time so long as the bet wins. :loon Onto the quarter-finals: 3pts - A Carter v J Jones - Over 22 frames @ 11/8 with Ladbrokes 2pts - J Jones to beat A Carter with Betfair @ 3.65 (13/5-ish) with Betfair I just have a hunch that this match could be a lot closer than most people expect. Ali Carter was magnificent from 12-9 down against Judd Trump yesterday and gave a masterclass on how to apply pressure to an opponent who is showing signs of wobbling. However, truth be told, Trump wobbled a hell of a lot and missed numerous chances to put the match to bed in the last few frames. I think the sheer effort of coming through such a draining match could be a factor here, particularly as Ali hasn't been used to reaching the business end of tournaments in the last 18 months or so. Doubtless, he'll be on a high, but I just wonder if he'll be able to reproduce the intensity of yesterday's performance with such a short recovery time. As for Jamie Jones, Kev is right in that he struggled to get over the line against Andrew Higginson yesterday and started to miss balls that he hadn't thought twice about earlier in the week. However, the key for me was how impressive the Welshman was in the 2nd session of that match, where he established a 10-6 lead by winning 6 of the 8 frames played. If he can reproduce the consistency he showed in establishing that 4 frame lead, then he can certainly give Ali Carter a match and, for that reason, I'm going to take him to win no less than 10 frames at decent odds against. I also think he's a touch overpriced at 3.65 on the outright and definitely worth a small punt to upset the odds. 5pts - N Robertson v R O'Sullivan - Total 50+ breaks in match: Over 15.5 @ 4/5 with Paddy Power Not touching the outright or handicaps in this match, as I have Robertson as my main outright for the tournament, but I do think this match could be an absolute cracker. Ronnie's scoring in the 2nd session of his match against Mark Williams was simply magnificent, whilst Robertson has consistently knocked in centuries and 50s in his first two matches, and looks to be on top of his game. If both players can keep up their levels in this match, then I can see it going very close indeed and of course, the more frames that are played, the more chance there is of this line coming in. Personally, I think anywhere over 21-22 frames in total could be enough to see 16 half centuries come in and I'd be surprised if either player won this match 13-9 or better.

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Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th Haven´t had the chance to see much of Carter in the first rounds but not having much recent routine of deep runs could be a factor, abd I did see Jamie Jones at his best against Higginson and believe he has a decent chance to take this one down if he manages to stay relaxed and he doesn´t let his nerves affect him. He seems to have good support from the crowd and has already "won" in this tournament, so he should be able to enjoy and take one frame at a time. Think he´s odds are just too high - looked around and saw some bookers giving Jones 2,25-2,75 and generally I would put in a modest bet on pretty much anything if there was such a big difference in the bookmakers´opinions these days Or whatever western skies just said :) Jamie Jones 5/10 pts @3,40 (bet365)

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Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th

Judd Trump vs Ali Carter over 22.5 frames 4/5 skybet this should be close trump is not playing his best and his opponent is playing great Andrew Higginson vs Jamie Jones over 21.5 frames 4/6 skybet two players who are evenly matched in playing ability and both are desperate to win
good start by me i was fairly sure they would come off

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Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th Day v Stevens in play I have gone for over 22.5 frames. I expect Stevens to come back strong in the next session and can see this being a very tight game right to the finish. I expect this to go frame for frame right to the finish and a photo finish. Happy to take the 1.80 SJ are offering and taken a 4 point bet.

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Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th Taking one in running. M.Stevens to beat R.Day, 3pts @ 6/4 Betfred This is now a shade of value. Stevens is the seeded player, ground out a good win in the last round against Barry Hawkins and generally has that fighting spirit that will be needed in this quarter final. When it gets scrappy in the latter stages, I'd take Stevens every time over Day who can play when the going is good but isn't one to lump at short prices in a battle. Admittedly, he had a great first round win and a more comfortable win in Round 2 but should Stevens win this session 5-3, it's all square and he'll be back to odds on rather than the current 6/4 available.

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Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th

Taking one in running. M.Stevens to beat R.Day, 3pts @ 6/4 Betfred This is now a shade of value. Stevens is the seeded player, ground out a good win in the last round against Barry Hawkins and generally has that fighting spirit that will be needed in this quarter final. When it gets scrappy in the latter stages, I'd take Stevens every time over Day who can play when the going is good but isn't one to lump at short prices in a battle. Admittedly, he had a great first round win and a more comfortable win in Round 2 but should Stevens win this session 5-3, it's all square and he'll be back to odds on rather than the current 6/4 available.
More than a touch of value now mate :lol. What a weird night of snooker :eek.

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Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th Very nice tipping guys! :loon I was a little sad to hear of Hendry's retirement. It was coming, but a little disappointed he couldn't make a dream ending by winning this year's championship, especially after that 147.

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Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th

More than a touch of value now mate :lol. What a weird night of snooker :eek.
:lol:lol Yeah, very odd evening indeed especially for any Day / Hendry supporters.

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Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th Poor Ryan. That missed red that bounced into the other pocket was just salt to injury. Good to see them smiling at each other though, the Welshmen. Definitely gonna start making some punts after this year's world championship. It fun watching the events without any bets on, but it lacks a bit more excitement. You guys seem to be pretty profitable doing this. Keep it up.

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Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th

i bet on Day :eyes Do you think he can survive :$
If Stevens can whitewash 8 frames, then so can Day :) You never know in snooker. But things are not looking good.

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Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th I might regret this in the morning but for me no Day can't win now. He might win a few frames because as Russ said earlier Stevens isn't the best closer out of matches you've ever seen in your life but Stevens will get two chances in 9 frames and I'm sure he'll take them. I'm not sure I buy into the 'poor Ryan Day' stuff. Admittedly I've never been his greatest fan and yes that fluke wasn't helpful although he'd have been snookered on it had it not gone in but Day only has himself to blame IMO. He missed an easy ball for 6-2 this morning and scored 23pts or more in six of the eight frames tonight so to be in that many times and not win a frame is awful and he's only got himself to blame. I'm sure he'll come back in the morning with the pressure off and start potting them off the lampshades for a while but you can't win World Championship QFs missing the balls he has so far especially against someone as good as Stevens.

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Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th Well I was just saying I felt abit of sympathy for him as a neutral and spectator. Though I know that luck usually swings around in the long run. Not trying to say anything about who should have won the match! I'm not in a position to give commendable opinions :p

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Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th

Well I was just saying I felt abit of sympathy for him as a neutral and spectator. Though I know that luck usually swings around in the long run. Not trying to say anything about who should have won the match! I'm not in a position to give commendable opinions :p
I see that. Had he not contributed massively to his own downfall I'd have felt some sympathy for him as well but I find it hard to feel sorry for someone who blows so many opportunities through their own poor play. Even in that frame he missed an easy red before the Stevens fluke. Contrast that to the Carter/Trump match where I felt really sorry for Carter because he was giving it his all and doing nothing wrong and had to sit there throughout some of the most ridiculous good luck I've ever seen in Judd's favour. The fact he came through that match says a lot about him and I think Russ could well have hit the outright market on the head with him the way he is playing.

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Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th 3pts - Day v Stevens - Day (+6.5 Frames) @ 2.10 Bet365 Day was terrible for second session yesterday and his head had just gone. Stevens reeled off the 8 frames but I wasn't that impressed with him either - I think his top break was around the 60 mark and he gave Day plenty of chances to take frames. I will have a little play that Day comes back with a clear head today and can take 2 of the first 3 frames. He will know he isn't going through but I think he will want to put on a bit of a perfromance to show he is a better player than we saw last night. At odds above evens I think this is worth a little punt Excellent stuff in here so far guys

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Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th Can't wait for this evening's session. 4pts N.Robertson (+2.5 frames) to beat R.O'Sullivan 11/10 Ladbrokes 2pts N.Robertson to beat R.O'Sullivan 3/1 William Hill This match has been fascinating so far with both men having one good session and one poor session. Neil Robertson's poor session earlier this afternoon was atrociously poor by his standards but he could well have given himself a lifeline by winning the last two frames of the session when it didn't look like he could make a 10 break in the six frames before that. What I noticed about those two frames he won was he was slowing the pace down and making sure there was a lot more safety played. I remember Robertson employing those tactics to great effect in the Masters semi final against Judd Trump and I would imagine that will be his aim this evening. Whether he has it in him to bridge the two frame gap back tonight remains to be seen but I'm confident he'll live with Ronnie in this final session at the very least, especially if he can get inside his head and even more so if he can level this match up early. Robertson hasn't become a bad player overnight and those two frames will have really boosted his confidence and quite probably had the exact opposite effect on O'Sullivan. Ronnie's fantastic to watch but he's not that far ahead that he justifies Robertson being 3/1 to win tonight and neither is he far enough ahead that a 13-10 or easier win either way is a guarantee. For me tonight is all about Robertson. If he gets his tactics right and conjures up his best snooker, which he has become a master of doing on the big occasion in the last couple of years, then I think the Australian can win this or at the very least go mighty close.

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Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th Into the semis now. Kicking off the 1st match. A.Carter (+2.5 frames) to beat S.Maguire, 6pts @ Evs Paddy Power Yes, I know I'm already on Ali at 12's to win this but I'm covering the 'cap too. How on earth is Carter this price with a 2.5 frame start, I'll never ever know. Mags has done well to reach the semis but realistically the draw has been kind. Luca Brecel, Joe Perry & Stephen Hendry, meaning he ain't faced a top 16 player yet. Ok, he was impressive in beating Hendry 13-2 but the pressure was off and we've seen before with Mags that he tightens up a bit when the pressure is on. With that a concern, there's no worse opponent to face than the battling qualities of Ali Carter. Mark David, Judd Trump and a very underrated Jamie Jones so far have been beat, and I don't see how Maguire is deemed as any tougher. Carter has played some top stuff and is cueing very well. Looks massively focused too, which in this single table format, will be essential. We've seen how Ali fights, winning 4 on the spin to dispose off golden boy Trump and, with that under his belt, he'll be a tough nut to crack. Personally, I think he'll win this in an epic but am taking the safety bet too where we need Ali to stay with 2 frames of Stephen to land the odds. Can't wait!!

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Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th Been following the excellent advise on the snooker and champions league/europa league for the past couple of week and have been mightily impressed with the tips here. Think I've only had 1 miss out of 6 so far on the tips I have taken here so thanks a lot to the main contributors.

Into the semis now. Kicking off the 1st match. A.Carter (+2.5 frames) to beat S.Maguire, 6pts @ Evs Paddy Power Yes, I know I'm already on Ali at 12's to win this but I'm covering the 'cap too. How on earth is Carter this price with a 2.5 frame start, I'll never ever know. Mags has done well to reach the semis but realistically the draw has been kind. Luca Brecel, Joe Perry & Stephen Hendry, meaning he ain't faced a top 16 player yet. Ok, he was impressive in beating Hendry 13-2 but the pressure was off and we've seen before with Mags that he tightens up a bit when the pressure is on. With that a concern, there's no worse opponent to face than the battling qualities of Ali Carter. Mark David, Judd Trump and a very underrated Jamie Jones so far have been beat, and I don't see how Maguire is deemed as any tougher. Carter has played some top stuff and is cueing very well. Looks massively focused too, which in this single table format, will be essential. We've seen how Ali fights, winning 4 on the spin to dispose off golden boy Trump and, with that under his belt, he'll be a tough nut to crack. Personally, I think he'll win this in an epic but am taking the safety bet too where we need Ali to stay with 2 frames of Stephen to land the odds. Can't wait!!
I like the look of that bet Russ I've gone for the safer option of Carter +3.5 @ 4/5 on Bet365. Both players are having a fantastic tournament so far. I'd say a 13-10 or closer is very likely here.

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Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th

Into the semis now. Kicking off the 1st match. A.Carter (+2.5 frames) to beat S.Maguire, 6pts @ Evs Paddy Power Yes, I know I'm already on Ali at 12's to win this but I'm covering the 'cap too. How on earth is Carter this price with a 2.5 frame start, I'll never ever know. Mags has done well to reach the semis but realistically the draw has been kind. Luca Brecel, Joe Perry & Stephen Hendry, meaning he ain't faced a top 16 player yet. Ok, he was impressive in beating Hendry 13-2 but the pressure was off and we've seen before with Mags that he tightens up a bit when the pressure is on. With that a concern, there's no worse opponent to face than the battling qualities of Ali Carter. Mark David, Judd Trump and a very underrated Jamie Jones so far have been beat, and I don't see how Maguire is deemed as any tougher. Carter has played some top stuff and is cueing very well. Looks massively focused too, which in this single table format, will be essential. We've seen how Ali fights, winning 4 on the spin to dispose off golden boy Trump and, with that under his belt, he'll be a tough nut to crack. Personally, I think he'll win this in an epic but am taking the safety bet too where we need Ali to stay with 2 frames of Stephen to land the odds. Can't wait!!
I really think this bet will not land. +2,5 frames in a best af 33 isn't really that much. Maguire will be well rested while a late night finish and two tight matches might be catching up with the captain. Ok Maguire hasn't beat all that much this tournament but he did it clinical anyway. With his day off he will be well prepared and fully ready to go while Ali will be glad just to get this far. I reckon a 17-10 17-11 17-12 score for Maguire. Good luck though!

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Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th

I like the look of that bet Russ I've gone for the safer option of Carter +3.5 @ 4/5 on Bet365. Both players are having a fantastic tournament so far. I'd say a 13-10 or closer is very likely here.
First to 17 mate.

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Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th 3 for me in this first semi final. Hoping it is a bit of a classic. 3pts A.Carter to beat S.Maguire 15/8 Stan James 5pts Over 28.5 frames 8/11 Stan James 4pts Over 19.5 50+ breaks 8/11 Paddy Power Like Russ before me I'm not sure how Ali Carter is this price to win this match. Stephen Maguire has played some wonderful snooker this week but he's been allowed to by his opponents and I think he'll have to work a lot harder to get his opportunities in this match. He has never been past a semi final at the Crucible and while he was playing superbly coming into the tournament and has scored heavily during it you just wonder if the long season will begin to catch up with him during this match. Carter won't have that problem because coming into this tournament he had barely won a match all season but with Peter Ebdon in his corner clearly working on his mentality, as we saw by the way Carter wanted it so badly against Trump when he was 12-9 down, Carter looks focused and to me looks like the likely winner of this semi final. Of course Maguire won't go down without a fight but under the most intense pressure he is prone to missing a few balls whereas Carter has nerves of steel like we saw both against Trump and in the break to finish off Jamie Jones. I don't expect this match to be won easy and I think 17-12 either way is the bare minimum of what we'll get as a scoreline although I would imagine even closer maybe 17-14 or 17-15. I think the match will be high scoring because both men are good in the balls and have scored well this week so I expect at least two thirds of the frames to be won with a 50 break in it but when all is said and done I think Carter's experience of winning a semi final will come to the fore and the Captain can fly into the final on Saturday afternoon.

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Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th 5 pts Maguire to beat Carter at 1.47 Betfair This year Maguire will play first first World Championship final and fulfill his real potential. This is a max bet for me. Carter has fought long and hard this championship and had some terrific wins but this will catch up with him now while Maguire will be fully rested and ready to go. Maguire will get ahead from the start and is one of the best frontrunners in the game. I could have took the handicap on smaller stakes but i'm going plain and simple for a Maguire win at max stakes.Good luck all!

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