World Championship - April 21st - May 7th

[kevshat]

Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th

Is Ronnie to score atleast 2 centuries tomorrow @ 11/10 with Paddy Power not a gift Kev?

I'm not sure anything is straight forward in that match to be honest. If he wins you'd think he would put away two tons but I'm far from convinced he'll win.

Stephen Lee (-2.5 Frames) to beat Andrew Higginson - 4pts @ 8/11 Paddy Power Lee is in the form of his life and will be full of confidence coming into this year's Championship. Higginson's a very capable player on his day but his inconsistency means he can sometimes need 2 or 3 visits to the table to win a frame whereas Lee is one of the best potters around and consistently make's frame winning breaks when amongst the balls. Both players like to get on with it which will suit Lee's style and allow him to get into full flight. He's beaten Higginson three times already this season and over this match length, i think he'll pull clear and win comfortably by at least 3 frames.

:welcome to PL BG1983. Excellent first post. Good luck with your bet :ok

[kevshat]

Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th Cheers Staffy :ok. +7.22 for me overall now after Doherty couldn't get to six frames. Bingham got what was needed though to lessen the damage and Jones' 134 is a fair target to see how that stands up behind Hendry's 147. One for me on Monday morning. 5pts M.Stevens to beat M.Fu 4/5 Paddy Power Matthew Stevens is a player who historically has enjoyed the longer matches. His record in the three longer match tournaments - the Masters, UK and this tournament, is very good and given that he's played well throughout the majority of the season but run into some insanely good performances from opponents and lacked the run of the ball which is so important over a shorter match, I think he'll relish the longer matches again in this tournament. Stevens is playing good snooker. He's shown that in the Shanghai Masters and the German Masters when he went to the quarter finals and although he's lost in the first round of his last three tournaments, he lost a deciding frame to Perry in the World Open, lost 4-0 to Walden who had two tons and two 80's against him in the PTC Finals and lost to Ebdon in the China Open and Ebdon went on to win the tournament. If Marco Fu pulls out a performance like that in this match then fair play to him but there's been no evidence that it is coming any time soon. Of course Fu is a very capable player and it will be interesting to see if Mark Allen's comments about him have given him something to prove but based on what he has shown so far this season I have to favour Stevens in this match. Even Fu's qualifying form can't be taken too strongly as I think Joe Jogia was just about the ideal draw in the final qualifying round. Barring running into another spectacular performance I think Stevens is playing well enough to take care of Fu in this first round match.

[Aidymac]

Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th Well done Kev, keep up the good work...

[kevshat]

Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th Cheers Aidy :ok. The Stevens match is going better than I thought it would. 6-0 up as I type. 3 more for this afternoon. 5pts S.Murphy vs J.Jones - Over 16.5 frames 4/5 BetVictor I'm really surprised we're getting a price as good as 4/5 on this line. This match resumes at 2.30 with the score 5-4 to Murphy and that's a fair scoreline too because Jamie Jones played well in the first session and I think he'll play well in this session too. The only two ways we lose this bet is for Murphy to win this second session 5-2 or Jones to win it 6-1. I certainly don't see the latter happening and I would want strong odds against on the former happening because Jamie Jones has a good all round game and when he gets given a chance, he showed in the first session with the 134 break, that he can very much take them. Murphy often labours in this opening round and I wouldn't be too surprised if these two share the first four frames of the session and then Jones wins at least one more after the interval. Nothing I've seen in the match so far suggests that it will end 10-6 or easier and so if the match follows the same path as yesterday and both players play as well today, I think the worst this match will end will be 10-7 either way. 4pts P.Ebdon (+3.5 frames) to beat R.O'Sullivan 10/11 Stan James 2pts P.Ebdon to beat R.O'Sullivan 3/1 Blue Square I really do think Peter Ebdon has an excellent chance in what could be an excellent match. He comes into this tournament in fantastic form and buoyed by having won a ranking event and he won't fear O'Sullivan. Sure he'll probably look to play a bit of gamesmanship but at some point in the match Ebdon might even believe he can win without that. One thing about Ebdon in the China Open was yes he was quite slow at times but very rarely did he miss a ball and if he misses little in this match when it's hard to see O'Sullivan winning because he has given his opponents more and more chances in recent times. O'Sullivan is class we all know that but his head can go and as the season has worn on more and more has been made of this glandular fever he's struggling from so it is clearly something that is in his mind. That won't be the only thing he's thinking about once Ebdon starts boring him rigid. I think Ebdon is good value to win at least 7 frames in this match and equally as good value once he's won seven to win the 10 he needs to progress.

[ImLovinIt]

Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th

Cheers Staffy :ok. +7.22 for me overall now after Doherty couldn't get to six frames. Bingham got what was needed though to lessen the damage and Jones' 134 is a fair target to see how that stands up behind Hendry's 147. One for me on Monday morning. 5pts M.Stevens to beat M.Fu 4/5 Paddy Power Matthew Stevens is a player who historically has enjoyed the longer matches. His record in the three longer match tournaments - the Masters, UK and this tournament, is very good and given that he's played well throughout the majority of the season but run into some insanely good performances from opponents and lacked the run of the ball which is so important over a shorter match, I think he'll relish the longer matches again in this tournament. Stevens is playing good snooker. He's shown that in the Shanghai Masters and the German Masters when he went to the quarter finals and although he's lost in the first round of his last three tournaments, he lost a deciding frame to Perry in the World Open, lost 4-0 to Walden who had two tons and two 80's against him in the PTC Finals and lost to Ebdon in the China Open and Ebdon went on to win the tournament. If Marco Fu pulls out a performance like that in this match then fair play to him but there's been no evidence that it is coming any time soon. Of course Fu is a very capable player and it will be interesting to see if Mark Allen's comments about him have given him something to prove but based on what he has shown so far this season I have to favour Stevens in this match. Even Fu's qualifying form can't be taken too strongly as I think Joe Jogia was just about the ideal draw in the final qualifying round. Barring running into another spectacular performance I think Stevens is playing well enough to take care of Fu in this first round match.

Class. :notworthy :notworthy :notworthy :notworthy :notworthy :notworthy :notworthy :notworthy :notworthy :notworthy

[kevshat]

Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th

Very quixk piost.... S.Maguire v L.Brecel, 2+ match centuries, 4pts @ Evs SportingBet I like this bet. Always look to go overs on Mags in these longer format matches as it's not uncommon for him to knock in back to back tons. He's been in cracking form and is one of those flair players who scores very heavily when his arm is in. However, I don't think he'll get this match all his own way. Teen sensation, Luca Brecel comes here in hot form after a fantastic run in the qualifiers. First he easily disposed McCulloch & Pnches before winning a final frame decider with a ton over Michael Holt and then seeing off Mark King in the final round. We saw 7 tons on Day 1 including a superb maximum on a day where I actually felt we only had a couple of century machines on show so I firmly believe the tables are conducive to big scoring. With a likely 15+ frames in this match, I'm confident we'll see at least 2 centuries.

:clap:clap. Good stuff Russ :ok.

[BG1983]

Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th Great shouts on the Murphy v Jones match Russ, Western and Kev. Tips on here have been first class!

[western skies]

Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th Nice to get off to a winning start with Jamie Jones more than covering the handicap against Shaun Murphy. I said I'd been impressed with him this season, but I really did expect Shaun to squeeze through in a close match, so fair play to Jamie. :ok 4pts - D Junhui (-4.5 frames) to beat R Day @ 2.5 with Paddy Power Bit of a risky one as Ryan Day remains a fine player at his best, but there hasn't been much to suggest he's anywhere near his best this season. Since the turn of the year, he's failed to qualify for the World Open (losing 5-0 to Robert Milkins), Welsh Open (4-0 to Michael Holt), & China Open (5-4 to Ben Woollaston). He made it through to the German Masters where Stephen Maguire saw him off 5-1 in the 1st round. A typically gritty 10-8 win over Gerard Greene saw him through to Sheffield, but in truth he's been handed one of the worst draws possible. Ding's recent record in 1st round matches at the Crucible is scary: 10-2 over Jamie Burnett in 2011 and 10-1 over Stuart Pettman in 2010, and he comes into this year's tournament having won the Welsh Open and the Championship League, and made the semi-finals in the China Open all in the last 2 months. If he starts firing from the start of the match, then I think he'll have too much for Ryan Day here and I can see him coming though with minimal fuss.

[RussP]

Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th Just got in so will have to be quick..... M.Fu (+7.5 frames) to beat M.Stevens, 3pts @ 11/8 Stan James I think we all know this game is all over with Stevens running away with the first session 8-1 but surely pride should be enough to see Marco come out fighting tonight trying to make this match last past the mid session interval. Admittedly he was pretty terrible this morning but Stevens wasn't exactly unbeatable. Fu had his chances but missed some easy balls and, if his potting head had been on, it could have been a bit less embarrassing that the current state of affairs. The fact he won the final frame of the session is a positive in my eyes and I think he can take this 'race to 2'. Stevens will be relaxed tonight and that may just be his undoing. Whilst I see a comfortable win for the Welshman, I think 10-3 or 10-4 will be the order of the evening. A.Higginson (+3.5 frames) to beat S.Lee, 3pts @ 10/11 Betfred A.Higginson to beat S.Lee, 1pt @ 3/1 BetVictor Taking on the in form player may look stupid but we've so far in this tournament that shocks are commonplace. Mark Allen, Shaun Murphy and Stuart Bingham (almost Higgins too) have already fallen at the first hurdle and I can see it happening again here. Lee, without doubt, is playing the best snooker of his career with him getting to the final, losing in the semis twice and quarters once in his last 4 ranking events. Add to that a superb victory in the PTC finals and he looks a certainty. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see expectation and fatigue play a part here. Higginson hasn't been brilliant this season but I always feel he's just one away from a great performance and he's capable of turning anyone over. Has been 'lightly raced' in 2012 and will come here fresh. Struggled after losing from 4-0 up to Ronnie in Germany but got the semis of the PTC's, losing 4-2 to todays opponent (the only one to take 2 frames off Lee that week). He also played some solid stuff in disposing of Peter Lines 10-4 in the qualifiers for this. Whilst Lee is a different proposition, I'm happy to take a chance and think he'll take at least 7 frames off the top 16 player.

[RussP]

Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th Cannot find any bets for tomorrow at all, really tough punting day I think. However, I do have interests with Dott starting his campaign as well as the bets on Andrew Higginson. +2.27pts as it stands, which ain't too bad considering the god damn awful start I had, coupled with a stupid bet on the Allen / Cao overs rather than Cao on the 'cap:wall Enjoying it so far, some great snooker :clap:clap

[kevshat]

2 for me for this afternoon. On my way to Gateshead so no exaggerated write ups. 3pts J.Perry to beat G.Dott 9/4 William Hill 4pts Over 16 frames 10/11 Bet365 These two players look evenly matched in all departments to me. Both have good safety games, both can score and both are in similar form. If anything Perry is in slightly better form and he beat Dott in the PTC Finals last month. At 9/4 he's value to beat him again in a match I expect to be close throughout. Sent from my HTC Desire HD A9191 using PL Forum

[RussP]

Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th Looking like a great call on Perry, Kev :clap Taking 4 tomorrow. R.Day to beat D.Junhui, 3pts @ 11/8 Betfred Finely poised, I like Ryan Day's chance here of overcoming one of the pre tournament favourites. 5-4 up but odds against is a strange one to me and, provided he starts quick, I fancy him to take this. It's been a theme this week that 'lightly raced' types do well against those that have been playing a lot of snooker, with the likes of Smurf and Stephen Lee crashing out. Today, the Welshman won all of the scrappy frames so it's important that Ding scores heavily when in the balls. This will add a little bit of pressure and it really wouldn't surprise me this year to see yet another well fancied player crash out. Day hasn't done an awful lot this year but is still a capable player so will be interesting to see how this one develops. G.Dott (+6.5 frames) to beat J.Perry, 3pts @ 6/5 Betfred I cannot believe Graeme Dott will play as bad 2 days on the trot. Woeful doesn't do it justice. Joe Perry actually didn't play that well himself and, against a player on his game, would not have been leading after the 1st session, let alone an 8-1 lead. The bet, again, is made on 'pride' grounds and I'm extending it a little hoping he can win the first session 3-1 tomorrow which will land us the bet. A top run in 9 frames of just 53 is pretty average (I bet the Stourbridge Snooker Champ could match that!!) and there's no way Dott can hit as many bad balls as today. Maybe it's a risky bet but surely Dott, a finalist in 3 of the last 8 years here, will be able to take 3 frames out of Perry before the Englishman can win 2. At 6/5, it's worth a punt. L.Chuang (+4.5 frames) to beat M.Williams, 3pts @ Evs Boylesports The Chinese have played pretty well this week and I'll take Liu Chang to continue that this week. The 21yo had a good run to qualify here, taking out Jimmy White and Jamie Cope in his 3 match qualifying run. Seems to prefer these longer format matches too with run only falling at the last qualifying hurdle last year. The youngest players, new to the Crucible, have shown little sign of nerves and I'm expecting that to continue here. I do think Mark Williams' vast experience will see him through here despite recent comments he made about the venue. He's not been playing too well lately but his potting prowess is generally enough to see him across the line and I think that a potential 2nd round match against the Rocket should focus his mind enough to prevail. That said, I cannot discount a young lad with the big future in the game and expect he'll stay close enough to take 6 frames over the Welsh potter. M.Davis to beat A.Carter, 3pts @ 11/8 Betfred The Captain's problems have been very well documented this season so I cannot see where he's an odds on shot against a player who's consistently hovering just outside the top 16. Carter has beat only 3 players in ranking events this season, in Rob Milkins, Dominic Dale and the unknown Lu Ning. Talk of retirement does bode well for a player who had been sat inside the top 8 for an awful long time and, whilst he could produce something unexpected, I cannot be ignoring the 11/8 chances of Mark Davis. He's an excellent break builder when he's got his game head on and he must be buoyed by his excellent draw. A likely 2nd tie against Judd Trump is the reward so he must surely be fired up and he's shown enough, without overdoing it, to make me believe he can go well in this. A very good qualifying win, polishing off Milkins 10-5, adds confidence and I'll take him to help me sign off the opening round in fine style.

[kevshat]

Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th Great shout on Ryan Day, Russ :clap. Annoyingly for my one remaining outright Ding couldn't win any of the last three despite having good chances in all of them. I'll concentrate on this afternoon's match now. 4pts L.Chuang (+4.5 frames) to beat M.Williams Evs Stan James 1pt L.Chuang to beat M.Williams 5/1 Blue Square One thing we've seen this week so far is the qualifiers going very well and I think a reason for that is they are match sharp having played the qualifiers less than two weeks ago. If the qualifier gets into the match in the first session they have the belief to get the job done in the second session and what has been most strange so far is how the qualifiers have tended to win the closer matches, Higgins aside. I think Liu Chuang is well worth a bet in this match. Mark Williams started the season fantastically with finals in Australia and Shanghai but since then he's only got a quarter final in Germany to show for his efforts in what has rapidly become a poor season for the Welshman. Liu Chuang has qualified for his first tournament here but he did beat Jimmy White and Jamie Cope in the qualifying rounds. I watched his match against Jimmy White and he looks like he has enough of a safety game to be competitive and he can certainly pot balls. Mark Williams has been in the news in the run up to this tournament claiming that he doesn't like the Crucible and so that, on top of a potential lack of confidence and form gives Liu Chuang every chance in this match. I think he can put together enough breaks to take 6 frames in this match and the way the week has gone so far I wouldn't put it past him to win the match. I'm happy to take him with a 4.5 frame start at evens and I'll have a small bet to see if he can get up to 10.

[verylocal]

Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th Hi every1, First post here, and I´d like to point out I´m not really an expert on this great sport, but rather an avid fan and railbird. In betting terms you could probably call me a fish...so any following on your own risk! Anyways, having watched most of the first round matches of both Day and Yupeng and having been very disappointed with Day´s performance (lost decent on him as I did have faith in him coming in; and key point being I DID NOT see the last session before I made these first 2 bets) and quite impressed with Cao´s overall game I did see the upcoming match if not Cao as having a clear edge but at least as a coin toss, so I did bet on Match winner Cao @2,50 Bet365 (8/10) Cao +2,5 @1,72 Bet365 (5/10) ....Quite confidently. Knowing Cao should be feeling really well with himself right now where as Day is struggling more relying on his class, I also took Cao to lead after 4 frames @3,25 Bet365 (5/10) It´s probably not a good strategy, but betting more for fun rather than strictly to make profit, I´m quite happy with the last mentioned bet as I bleieve that if Cao gets the lead early he has a good chance of riding the high-wave all the way which means I´m kinda grouping my wagers. However, after seeing Day´s post-game interview I´m not that confident on the first 2 bets. Day looked really confident and relaxed, so after seeing that I wouldn´t go that high on x/10 on Cao to be honest. Second one I bet on for the 2nd round was Jones- Higginson. To be honest I don´t know much at all about Jones, but having seen most of Higginson´s first round match I believe a) he has the mental strength and form to make it an even match right now against most players b) makes enough unforced mistakes and maybe lacks the absolute class to sweep anyone, so I took o22 @2,2 at Bet365 (5/10) There may be statistical data to prove me wrong (that I´ve never heard of) or something related to style of play, but Bet365 offering 2,10 in the first frame for 50+ break also seemed like a very good offer. At this stage everyone has the breakbuilding and potting skills to easily shoot 50, so I went 7,5/10 on this one. Thanks to everyone for their tips on the snooker betting (to which I´m very new) and to those memebers from other sub-forums that I´ve very much enjoyed reading for past months! Hope you get at least some food for thought from my posts, please don´t follow with your last money....and if you have any criticism/pointers for me, I´d much appreciate! (Could mods maybe advice how to properly link the bookmakers?)

[verylocal]

Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th uh oh, having seen the post, to be honest, that´s some very bad English there, hope you cope but too lazy actually proof-read and edit!

[kevshat]

Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th :welcome to PL verylocal. Great first post and good luck with your bets. My only advice would be to lower your stakes/confidence on bets you see as 'value' or ones you don't fancy as much (Cao first 4 frames for example) but I certainly can't fault the reasoning behind any of them :ok.

[kevshat]

Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th +3.47 for me so far with the outrights deducted. With all the seeds going out Jamie Jones' 136 might hold up for a place now although he could improve on it yet. Got the Chuang bets outstanding and how he is 6-3 down to Williams playing like he did I'll never know. Hopefully the same Williams turns up tomorrow night and the youngster can make it to six frames. One for me to begin the second round. 4pts N.Robertson (-5.5 frames) to beat D.Gilbert Evs Betfred I quite like David Gilbert as a player. He has no airs and graces and scores quite well when he's given the chance but the issue I have with him is his safety game is very poor and while you can get away with that against an out of form Martin Gould, and only just did he get away with that, you don't get away with it against the current Masters champion and former world champion. Not this version of it anyway because this one puts pressure on the best safety games let alone a player who isn't so proficient in that department. Robertson scored wonderfully in his first match and the fact he played so well is a worry for the rest of the field. Normally Robertson starts slowly so it is ominous he's in good form already. He hit three tons in his first round match against Doherty and a couple of other big breaks and with the chances Gilbert was leaving Gould you have to think the Australian will score heavily in this match too. Gilbert will get a few chances and he'll take a few frames but I don't see him taking more than 7 frames in this match unless his safety improves dramatically, something which I've seen no signs of happening.

[western skies]

Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th Ding's spectacular meltdown leaves me +0.5 for the tournament so far, but with both outrights still standing which is something of an achievement given the carnage of the 1st round. Going to take an interest in both 2nd round matches starting today. 5pts - N Robertson (-5.5 frames) to beat D Gilbert @ evens with William Hill I'm in total agreement with Kev on this one. I've already backed Robbo on the outright, but I just can't resist getting involved again at this price, which is just far too generous in my opinion. Gilbert scores well, but his tactical game looked about 20 years out of date against Martin Gould in round 1 - far too negative and unlikely to force an error out of an opponent as tactically sound as Robertson is. As Kev has said, the Aussie looked in ominous form against Ken Doherty and I think he has the game to completely dominate and frustrate an inexperienced player such as Gilbert. I'm tempted to take some of the juicier handicap prices up to -8.5 frames, but on reflection I'll play it safe and take the very decent price on offer here. 5pts - S Maguire (-3.5 frames) to beat J Perry @ evens with William Hill Breaking a cardinal rule here and again taking a bet on one of my outrights, but Hills are being incredibly generous here. Joe Perry's 10-1 win over Graeme Dott looks impressive on paper, but in truth he only had to turn up to win that match such was Dott's abject level of performance. Graeme himself suggested Joe had played "rubbish" which, whilst a bit harsh, isn't far from the truth as he compiled just the one break over 50 in taking an 8-1 lead and spurned numerous chances, safe in the knowledge that Graeme would leave him another one in a minute. I'd expect Perry to up his game here, but he'll need to move up several gears to even stand a chance against Maguire, who has been in something approaching vintage form since the turn of the year. Once again, it's hard to see Maguire's opponent troubling him unduly in this match and evens for the Scot to win 13-9 or better seems like too good an opportunity to pass up.

[kevshat]

Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th Second round odds: [TABLE=class: couponTable]

[TR] [TH=class: firstColumn]Friday 27 April 2012[/TH] [TH]Player 1[/TH] [TH]Player 2[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [TH] [/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Gilbert, D v Robertson, N (10:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 13.5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.07 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.74 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Higgins, J v Hendry, S (10:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.5 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.00 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Day, R v Yupeng, C (14:30 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.62 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.62 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]99.82 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Saturday 28 April 2012[/TH] [TH]Player 1[/TH] [TH]Player 2[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [TH] [/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Carter, A v Trump, J (19:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.95 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.33 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.32 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Sunday 29 April 2012[/TH] [TH]Player 1[/TH] [TH]Player 2[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [TH] [/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Jones, Jamie v Higginson, A (10:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.37 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.71 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.58 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Stevens, M v Hawkins, B (10:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.72 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.38 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]99.91 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Aidymac]

Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th I think Carter looks overpriced. Judd deserved favourite, but Carter is hitting the ball sublimely well, and i don't think there will be much between them, could go all the way...

[RussP]

Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th With everything settled up (except the Gould high break outright where a 136, tied with Kev's Jones bet, holds 2nd), I'm at +6.63pts after the 1st round. J.Higgins v S.Hendry, over 21.5 frames, 4pts @ 9/10 Boylesports S.Hendry to beat J.Higgins, 2pts @ 12/5 Ladbrokes The battle of the 2 Scotsmen here and I really think the old guard in Hendry will give the current world champ a good match here. In Round 1, Higgins didn't look particularly good in scraping past Liang Wenbo 10-9. For sure, he will improve here but it will have to be significant improvement to beat an in form Hendry. In the 1st round, Hendry played a brilliant first session, leading top 16 player Stuart Bingham 8-1 including that magnificent 147. No surprise to me to see this one go the full distance in what I hope could be a Crucible classic. With the amount of shocks this year too, proving that Barry's new regime is bringing the top players closer together means that I can actually see the 7 time world champ winning this. He looks good value to me and whilst I'm very confident on the overs, I'll also take a little bit on the Hendry win. R.Day (-2.5 frames) to beat C.Yupeng, 4pts @ 11/10 Ladbrokes A 2nd match featuring 2 qualifiers who had superb wins in the first round and both will see this as an opportunity to progress again. The one I'm sweet on is the Welshman, Ryan Day, who will bid to add another Chinese to his victory list at this year's Worlds. In Round 1, he came from 9-6 back to take out one of the pre tournament favs in Ding Junhui and, at times, he looked back to the form that took up to number 5 in the world not too long ago, although Ding did let him back in especially in that final frame. The way he closed it out though was impressive and I think he'll be buoyed by that. Cao meanwhile played well to dispose of Mark Allen but I really feel Allen was out of sorts and the win wasn't nearly as impressive as Day's. On top of that, it's anyones guess how he will react to Allen's comments after the match and this could be 1 round too far. If Day can get off to a good start, he could run away with this and he looks value to win this 13-10 or better.

[kevshat]

Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th Make it to 6 frames Chuang did. After the first round, with all the losing outrights taken out I'm +6.47pts so far but already Neil Robertson is looking in a good position in the second round. One more in the second round. 4pts J.Higgins (-3.5 frames) to beat S.Hendry Evs BetVictor John Higgins hasn't had a great season but I think we saw some good signs from him in his first match. He fought hard and pulled out the win under some intense pressure which will make him feel good. Stephen Hendry rolled back the years in the first session of his match against Stuart Bingham but he wasn't as good in the second session despite having an 8-1 lead and it is that which worried me going into this match. I'm pretty convinced that given Hendry's inconsistencies this season he is going to have a rotten session in this match and a rotten session against John Higgins generally ends up a 6-2 session or worse. I've heard a lot spoken in recent days about Higgins having the bug back and practicing well and while his form in the first match never showed he's playing well his competitive nature was certainly back. Hendry's long game is a concern for me in this match as is his safety and if Higgins is coming back to his best then given that I expect Hendry to have a poor session in at least one of the three sessions I will take the defending champion to win this and win it before Hendry hits double figures.

[Aidymac]

Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th Hope your right Kev, best of luck mate. I think Higgins may be spurred on by the fact so many seeded players have been knocked out... If i was doing a tissue today, i would have Robertson clear favourite, he was immense yesterday, genuinely can't see anyone beating him if he keeps playing like that, but it is very hard to keep playing that brilliantly for 17 days. Best of luck also Russ, i think Day is playing very well and should have enough for his opponent. As for your Hendry bet, i hope your wrong. :loon

[kevshat]

Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th 2 more bets for me. One more outright and one for this afternoon. 1pt ew M.Stevens to win World Championship 20/1 Bet365 (1/2 1-2) Ironically this is one of those times where it is better to take a lower price than the best price available as you win more if it wins or places :loon. Matthew Stevens was one of the players I looked strongly at before this tournament began but in the end I couldn't ignore the form of Ding Junhui. That was a mistake but I still think 20/1 on the Welshman is worth a bet especially the way the draw as a whole and especially his portion of it has cut up. He is now the only top 16 player left in his quarter of the draw and if he holds himself together and maintains his form he should be in the semi final. Ok he's going to come up against Robertson or the winner of MJW/Ronnie but he wouldn't be 10/1 to win that match which is the price we would have. What I also like about Stevens is he hasn't had a real run in a major tournament this year so he comes into the event fresh and I don't think the 17 day marathon would be too much for him. He played fairly well in the first round and has previous over the distance here without quite getting his nose over the line. This could just be the year though and with the draw the way it is 20/1 on Stevens still looks a good price to me. 4pts C.Yupeng to beat R.Day 13/8 Blue Square I like Cao Yupeng in this match. I have to admit I've never been Ryan Day's greatest fan. He's fine when all is going well but he's never really struck me as someone who is going to dig in and fight when the world is against him. In a way that is what was good about his first round win but in all fairness Ding fell apart in that match. He had chances to win the match in each of the last three frames and blew it. Day held himself together well but I think he will have to find more in this match because Cao was impressive in his first round match. He led Mark Allen from start to finish, looked strong among the balls and was a decent safety and long game. Cao's technique was strong and you get the impression he will be fine under pressure, something we have already seen in the past with his two deciding frame wins in qualifying knowing that if he lost either match he was off the tour. Day is nothing special and certainly should've lost in the first round. His Chinese opponent on that occasion couldn't get the job done but I believe this Chinese opponent will.

[RussP]

Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th Getting involved in one match tomorrow. A.Carter (+3.5 frames) to beat J.Trump, 4pts @ 11/10 Paddy Power A.Carter to beat J.Trump, 2pts @ 11/4 Ladbrokes A.Carter to win World Championship, 0.5pts EW @ 25/1 Totesport (1/2 odds 1-2) Eggs in basket time here and come the end of the weekend, I may look totally stupid yet again but I think the Captain is a decent shout here. We all know Judd is the golden boy and I do accept that he was suffering with illness in his match against Dominic Dale. However, I think 10-7 flattered him in the end and despite the fact he's probably feeling better now, he'll still have to up his game to beat a resurgent Ali Carter. Trump is often priced up on his reputation and I think that's the case again here. Carter meanwhile has had an awful season because of ill health but he's looked a different person in his first round win. Although Mark Davis was also feeling poorly, you can't disguise the fact Carter hit the ball well, made some great breaks and looked back to somewhere approaching his battling best. He also revealed that a new diet had helped his health and that the pain he felt everytime he played is now not as bad. With Carter's return to form and Judd's illness still perhaps not fully out of his system, these 2 looks very closely matched so the 11/4 on the Captain to win look too big. Even if Judd does prevail, I think it will be close and I think Ali will take at least 10 frames. Taking the 2 match bets meant I had to back him outright too. His current odds of 25/1 are massive as, if he wins this, you'd fancy him to make the final as there's only 1 potential top 16 player he could face, that would be the beatable Stephen Maguire. Hoping for a smooth flight passage through to the Crucible final and, in a year of shocks, how apt would it be for a player who was considering quitting the game to win the crown.

[kevshat]

Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th -1.53 now with Robertson getting over the line too late and Higgins looking atrociously bad. Still got enough bets running but I'll go with more for Saturday. 5pts R.O'Sullivan (-2.5 frames) to beat M.Williams 4/5 Boylesports 3pts R.O'Sullivan (-4.5 frames) to beat M.Williams 6/4 Paddy Power Ronnie O'Sullivan has played Mark Williams four times this season and he's beaten him on all four occasions. In fact it's something ridiculous like 10 years since Williams beat O'Sullivan in a ranking event and we saw in China that it is something which is beginning to weigh on Williams' mind. Williams never even landed a blow in the match out there neither did he when they met in the Welsh Open and the Premier League semi final. O'Sullivan wasn't at his brilliant best in the first round but he did more than enough. If Liu Chuang had taken his chances when Williams was there for the taking in the first session of their match then the Chinese youngster could be in this match rather than the Welshman. Although Williams' season began well with finals in Australia and Shanghai it's gone stale in the second half of it and I wasn't at all impressed with him in the first round here. Ronnie always speaks about how he respects Williams and because of that respect O'Sullivan always gives 110% in matches against him and the least I see Ronnie winning this is 13-10 but I wouldn't be at all surprised if the Rocket wins this a lot easier than that too. 4pts A.Carter (+3.5 frames) to beat J.Trump 11/10 Paddy Power It was good to see Ali Carter back to his best form in the first round and if he can replicate that in this match then he would have an excellent chance. Judd was suffering from a bout of food poisoning in his first round match and I understand he's only just getting over that so he may not feel 100% physically again but even if he is he's become a little bit hit and miss. He's a fantastic player when all is going well for him but he does rely on good fortune a lot of the time with the speed he hits balls and when he misses he can leave a table wide open. Dominic Dale was unlucky in the first round that Judd had an outrageous fluke at 8-7 up which led to him running out a more comfortable winner than it could've been but Ali Carter knows the scene, loves the Crucible and is as good a front runner as you'll find. If Ali can get ahead he could well see this one through but I'll take him to make it to 10 frames rather than 13 because Ali hasn't won a lot of matches this season and if for whatever reason this match is close he might have a touch of the clinchers disease so for safety I'll take the captain to make a safe landing on the slightly shorter flight rather than the potential turbulence of the long haul flight.

[western skies]

Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th No change for me with Maguire covering his handicap, but Robbo unable to follow suit, so still +0.5 for the tournament. Robertson had a chance of covering the -5.5 right up to the final session, but in fairness Dave Gilbert put up a better show than I was expecting and fully deserved to take the match closer than that. Onto today and after much head scratching, I just can't find a bet I like the look of in the O'Sullivan v Williams match. Ronnie on the handicap looks the most likely call, but the odds seem pretty stingy to me. Looking back at their previous World Championship meetings (2006, 2008, & 2010), Ronnie has won all 3 but would have covered the -3.5frames handicap only once (a 13-7 win in 2008). It's hard to know when to take MJW seriously and when not to, but judging from some of his recent comments on Twitter, this seems to have developed into something of a grudge match for him since losing to Ronnie in China last month and that could work in his favour or against him. He'll be well up for the match, but will he put even more pressure on himself in the process? All in all, with the odds they way they are, it's a no bet for me. 4pts - A Carter (+3.5 frames) to beat J Trump @ evens with Paddy Power 5pts - Total 50+ breaks in match: Over 15.5 @ 10/11 with Bet 365 At long last, Ali Carter seems to be in a good place both with his health issues and his snooker. He's started a strict dietary regime which finally seems to have gotten his battle with Crohn's under control and he showed against an admittedly off colour Mark Davis that he still remembers how to play some top quality snooker. His scoring was particularly impressive in that match, with 2 centuries and 4 more breaks over 60 in the 10 frames he won. Judd Trump meanwhile suffered badly from the effects of food poisoning against Dominic Dale and will have been a relieved man just to get through the match. He should certainly be more or less recovered by now, but how much a bout of sickness will have taken out of him remains to be seen. For me, Trump is also in danger of believing his own publicity and listening to those around him who may not have his best interests at heart. His game borders on reckless at times and, when he's not firing at 100%, he risks becoming ragged and plays far too open. The improved tactical brain he showed when winning in China last year seems to have been sacrificed at the altar of "naughty snooker" and that makes him vulnerable when things aren't going his way. I still fancy this match might be a step too far (and too soon) for the rejuvenated Carter, but I agree with Kev that it could be a lot closer than the bookies think and I'll take no worse than a 13-10 scoreline at these odds. Carter's improved scoring power and the likelihood of a fairly close match also make the overs line on 50+ breaks very appealing at slight odds-on.

[staffy]

Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th From what I saw in the first session there appears to be very little between these 2. I missed the earlier handicap but have taken Carter +2.5 in play with SJ @ evens.

[RussP]

Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th Taking 2 more for today, sorry don't have much time. M.Stevens (-1.5 frames) to beat B.Hawkins, 4pts @ Evs Paddy Power The 4th quarter draw has opened up massively with just Stevens left winning from the seeded players in Round 1. He must see this as a massive opportunity and should be much shorter priced to beat Barry Hawkins in this. The prize is a Crucible QF and it would be against a fellow Welshman in Ryan Day so I can't believe that Stevens won't be hugely fired up for this. In Round 1, there were plenty of big victories (ie, with opponents scoring under 5 frames). Stevens/Fu was one such game with Stevens going 8-1 up before disposing him 10-3. During that match, he played some cracking stuff rolling back the years similar to a certain Mr Hendry. Hawkins, meanwhile, had a brilliant result by beating World No 1 Mark Selby by the same result. But, let's not go overboard. Selby was clearly suffering from a neck injury and never looked like winning. I see nothing to fear in that match and surely Hawkins is priced up on the fact he beat Mark Selby. Crazy in my opinion and he'll have to improved loads to trouble the Welshman and I'm happy to have Stevens on a very low handicap of -1.5. J.Jones to beat A.Higginson, 3pts @ 11/8 Paddy Power I'm gambling on a great few days for the Welsh and taking young Jamie Jones to get rid of Andrew Higginson. Both of these players had tremendous 1st round victories, Jones beat Smurf 10-8 and Higgy getting rid of form horse Stephen Lee 10-6. Anything more for either player is a bonus and I think this could be a close run thing. Higginson is a solid yet unspectacular player but, to me, is only 1 match away from a shocker and I just don't know whether he can sustain his form. Lee gave him plenty of chances in Round 1. Jones meanwhile was more impressive to me. He played some tremendous snooker, hitting breaks of 136 and 134 on his Crucible debut which, in anyones book, is a great standard. What I also liked was that Murphy came out afterwards saying he thought he played well himself, was happy with his performance, enjoyed the match but was beaten by a better player. That's some compliment and I'd prefer to be on a player that's in great form rather than just looking at the scoreline. Jones already came here with huge confidence having beat Higgins last month but that 1st round victory will have sent it soaring even further. The pockets will look like buckets and I can see him getting through to the quarters. It is a must have bet at the prices which I think are the wrong way round.

[owenclass]

Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th Judd Trump vs Ali Carter over 22.5 frames 4/5 skybet this should be close trump is not playing his best and his opponent is playing great Andrew Higginson vs Jamie Jones over 21.5 frames 4/6 skybet two players who are evenly matched in playing ability and both are desperate to win