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World Championship - April 21st - May 7th

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At last we now know the 32 players who will be gracing the Crucible in the World Championship which begins on Saturday. It's always a great fortnight of snooker but this tournament promises to be the best yet with so many potential winners. The draw takes place at 1.30 on Monday and can be heard on TalkSport and then the action begins on Saturday morning with John Higgins beginning the defence of his title. As usual the tournament will be broadcast on the BBC and on Eurosport so an excellent 17 days of snooker awaits us. I'll post the draw up once it has taken place but all thoughts/bets/discussions in here :ok

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Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th First round draw:

John Higgins v Liang Wenbo Stuart Bingham v Stephen Hendry Graeme Dott v Joe Perry Stephen Maguire v Luca Brecel Shaun Murphy v Jamie Jones Stephen Lee v Andrew Higginson Ali Carter v Mark Davis Judd Trump v Dominic Dale Mark Williams v Liu Chuang Ronnie O'Sullivan v Peter Ebdon Martin Gould v David Gilbert Neil Robertson v Ken Doherty Ding Junhui v Ryan Day Mark Allen v Cao Yupeng Matthew Stevens v Marco Fu Mark Selby v Barry Hawkins That is the correct draw bracket so the winner of Higgins/Wenbo plays winner of Bingham/Hendry and so on.

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Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th

Saturday 21 April 2012 Player 1 Player 2 BPP
maximize.gif Gould, M v Gilbert, D (10:00 BST) 1.41 3.6 98.70 %
maximize.gif Higgins, J v Wenbo, L (10:00 BST) 1.28 5 98.13 %
maximize.gif Bingham, S v Hendry, S (14:30 BST) 1.9 2.02 101.89 %
maximize.gif Robertson, N v Doherty, K (14:30 BST) 1.2 6 100.00 %
maximize.gif Allen, M v Yupeng, C (19:00 BST) 1.18 6.5 100.13 %
Sunday 22 April 2012 Player 1 Player 2 BPP
maximize.gif Maguire, S v Brecel, L (10:00 BST) 1.27 5 98.74 %
maximize.gif Murphy, S v Jones, Jamie (14:30 BST) 1.21 6 99.31 %
Monday 23 April 2012 Player 1 Player 2 BPP
maximize.gif Stevens, M v Fu, M (10:00 BST) 1.8 2.2 101.01 %
maximize.gif O'Sullivan, R v Ebdon, P (14:30 BST) 1.33 4.25 98.72 %
maximize.gif Lee, S v Higginson, A (19:00 BST) 1.31 4.33 99.41 %
Tuesday 24 April 2012 Player 1 Player 2 BPP
maximize.gif Ding, Junhui v Day, R (10:00 BST) 1.28 4.5 100.00 %
maximize.gif Trump, J v Dale, D (10:00 BST) 1.16 7 100.00 %
maximize.gif Dott, G v Perry, J (14:30 BST) 1.41 3.5 99.49 %
maximize.gif Selby, M v Hawkins, B (19:00 BST) 1.29 4.7 98.80 %
Wednesday 25 April 2012 Player 1 Player 2 BPP
maximize.gif Williams, M v Liu, Chuang (14:30 BST) 1.17 7 99.76 %
maximize.gif Carter, A v Davis, M (19:00 BST) 1.67 2.5 99.88 %

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Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th My first post on here after being recommended to the site by a friend. I like to throw a little money around on the snooker and have been well rewarded over the years. Here are my bets so far: Higgins @ 2/9 (very dodgy as out of form) Allen @ 1/10 Williams @ 1/7 Trump @ 1/6 Robertson @ 1/6 Bet £1000. Poss Ret £2091 Ding @ 1/4 Selby @ 1/4 Lee @ 1/4 Gould @ 2/5 Bet £200. Poss Ret £546 Allen @ 1/6 Robertson @ 1/7 Trump @ 1/7 Ding @ 2/9 Bet £1000. Poss Ret £1862 Allen @ 1/6 Robertson @ 1/7 Trump @ 1/7 Selby @ 2/9 Bet £800. Poss Ret £1490 So total stake on 1st round is £3000 with a poss return of £5900 Up to you if you follow my tips but bear in mind that snooker is much more difficult to predict nowadays as the number of tournaments has increased from 6 to about 30 per season and there are no longer any easy games for the top 16 players. I would be pretty surprised if I made a lot of cash on this years tournament.

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Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th

My first post on here after being recommended to the site by a friend. I like to throw a little money around on the snooker and have been well rewarded over the years. Here are my bets so far: Higgins @ 2/9 (very dodgy as out of form) Allen @ 1/10 Williams @ 1/7 Trump @ 1/6 Robertson @ 1/6 Bet £1000. Poss Ret £2091 Ding @ 1/4 Selby @ 1/4 Lee @ 1/4 Gould @ 2/5 Bet £200. Poss Ret £546 Allen @ 1/6 Robertson @ 1/7 Trump @ 1/7 Ding @ 2/9 Bet £1000. Poss Ret £1862 Allen @ 1/6 Robertson @ 1/7 Trump @ 1/7 Selby @ 2/9 Bet £800. Poss Ret £1490 So total stake on 1st round is £3000 with a poss return of £5900 Up to you if you follow my tips but bear in mind that snooker is much more difficult to predict nowadays as the number of tournaments has increased from 6 to about 30 per season and there are no longer any easy games for the top 16 players. I would be pretty surprised if I made a lot of cash on this years tournament.
:welcome to PL McSilks. Can I ask that you provide some reasoning to go along with your bets and can you replace the cash amounts in future with a strength out of 5 or 10 to make it easier for anyone who wishes to follow you to do so, as per the forum rules. Ta :ok Good luck with your bets :ok.

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Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th I was bouncing up and down when I remembered the last 32 started tomorrow! I'm a big mug of snooker betting, but its great fun! I fancy dirty Bingham to dump out poor Hendry tomorrow. No doubt the crucible would love Hendry to get a run together, but Bingham is hungry for success, and with Davis and White already out, I feel Hendry is getting old as well. Cracking matches! I might drive to the Crucible and grovel for tickets outside if the tournament really heats up! Bingham 1.91, various, mug pub punt. GL Kev, you're usually pretty decent round here! I'll be leeching off your bets. Unless you bet against my favourite players - I shall go with my heart, not my head! :cow

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Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th John Higgins @ 9/1 Bet365 Although John has been out of form for the past year or so, and although i can not feel ultra-confident about this bet, i want to be on his side this week. I think he will up his game for this tournament, and i think he will reach the semi's at the very least. He has already won this event 4 times already, and he did not play his best last year, but he still won the event. If he comes back to anywhere near his best, he is a player to be very feared. Wide open this year though. Good luck folks

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Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th Good luck all. This looks a really open year and I'm taking a couple that may appear pretty speculative. However, both have decent shouts, so my outright bets are: G.Dott to win World Championship, 1pt EW @ 40/1 Coral (1/2 odds 1-2) G.Dott to win Quarter 1, 2pts @ 7/1 Ladbrokes You come to Crucible with the longer format and you need a proven performer who will battle to the end and in the Scot, Graeme Dott, we have exactly that player. Won here in 2006 and has also reached finals in both 2004 and 2010, that's pretty decent 'course' form. Even last year, we got a decent run until he came up against a rampant Mr Trump. Does have a potential tough opener against Joe Perry who is playing some decent stuff but I feel Dott has enough to get through this one. If he does, I really like his draw from here on. His likely next 2 opponents are 2 fellow countryman who certainly relish the prospect of facing him. First should be Maguire who, whilst in great form, doesn't look the most stable in a longer format and has a pretty poor H2H too, with Higgins, out of form & under pressure, will probably be his opponent for the quarter. I'm sure he'll be looking forward to the battles ahead and, at 40's, represents great value. M.Gould to win World Championship, 0.5pts EW @ 100/1 BetVictor (1/2 odds 1-2) M.Gould to win Quarter 3, 1pt @ 18/1 Bet365 M.Gould to hit highest break, 1pt EW @ 50/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds 1-4) I could be made to look very stupid very early here by backing a totally out of sorts Martin Gould. However, it is often the case that the Crucible is the platform for a return to form and I'm expecting that here. Not many like facing Gould's style, a very adventurous player who goes for everything, and if he can get his arm going, he could go deep into this. Has a few old scores to settle here too including a potential 2nd round match against Neil Robertson where Gould will attempt to avenge that 13-12 defeat in an amazing match back in 2010. Has to first overcome Dave Gilbert but, in fairness, if he can't do that then he really does have problems. Admittedly, Williams & O'Sullivan are in the same quarter but neither of those are players you'd want to put your mortgage particularly considering the former's comments on Twitter and the latter's likelihood to do something crazy. When looking at the highest break market, I want someone who will play at least 2 games, is a big EW price and loves to attack. Tailor made for Gould, I cannot see why he's a 50/1 to hit something in the 140's.

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Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th Kicking off with 1 bet tomorrow. S.Bingham to beat S.Hendry, 4pts @ 10/11 Ladbrokes We all know he's been a fantastic player, winning 7 World titles, but Hendry is coming to the end of his career now and is preferring to focus on other things now such as his TV work. In addition, he's been doing some work over in China this work, I believe, and you'd have to be worried that this won't have been the ideal preparation for the most demanding event of the whole year. Bingham will surely be fired up for this having won his first ranking event earlier in the season, he'll look to round his season off in style. He is probably in need of a good result and I think he'll get it here against a player who is missing lots of balls and doesn't have his eye completely on his game. Played pretty well last year, beating the notoriously tough Peter Ebdon in Round 1 before being edged 13-12 to Ding in yet another Crucible classic. In honesty, I though Bingham would have been nearer to 8/13 or 4/7 here so the fact we're getting 10/11 is more than enough for me to get involved.

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Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th 3 outright punts for me. The two tournament outright bets will be refunded should Ronnie win the tournament as per BV's special offer. 2pts ew D.Junhui to win World Championship 12/1 BetVictor (1/2 1/2) I really like Ding's chances in this World Championship. He is in excellent form coming into the event having won the Welsh Open, won the Championship League which isn't an easy tournament to win and also semi finalist in the China Open which traditionally is a tournament he struggles in. He lost to Peter Ebdon in that semi final but he was close to unstoppable that week. Ding's draw in this tournament isn't too bad either. He has Ryan Day in the opening round and I don't know what's happened to Day but he's gone right down the pan in the last two to three years. Mark Allen will probably await him in the second round but then I see a smooth path through to the semi final after that so in many ways it is only Allen between him and the semi final. I say that because Selby pulled out of the China Open with a neck issue and they can be awful things to get rid of so he may not be fully fit for this tournament. Once Ding's in the semis he'll come up against someone in good nick but that's par for the course. Ding was so close to the final last year but Trump repelled him in the semi final in a classic match. With an ounce more luck this year Ding can not only win a semi final but win the final and truly fulfil the masses of potential he has. 1pt ew P.Ebdon to win World Championship 66/1 BetVictor (1/2 1,2) Try as I might I can't leave this one alone. Peter Ebdon was in superb form out in the China Open a few weeks ago and yes his matches were full of a lot of grinding but look at who he beat. Matthew Stevens, John Higgins, Neil Robertson, Ding Junhui and Stephen Maguire. You don't beat them through just grinding. You have to play some top level snooker and Ebdon did. He had four centuries in that final and barely missed a ball all tournament. He continued that in his qualifying match for this tournament when he beat Alfie Burden 10-0 which you don't do if you are not playing well. The last China Open champion before Ebdon went all the way to the final of the World Championship a few weeks later when Judd Trump was runner up here last year and at 66/1 with the form and confidence behind him and the knowledge of knowing how to win this thing in his locker too I think Ebdon is worth a bet despite the tough section of the draw he is in. He's just shown he can beat the best once so I'll pay to see how many he can get through in this tournament. 2.5pts S.Lee to win 2nd Quarter 5/1 BetVictor Not overly sure what this price is all about but I'm delighted to have it. Stephen Lee comes into this tournament as one of the most in form men in the game of snooker right now and I see no reason why he is 5/1 in this quarter even if Judd Trump is in it. I'm not sure about Judd Trump in this tournament and I think the extra expectancy could be a lot to live up to after what he achieved in the tournament last season. Certainly he doesn't come into this event with the confidence levels he had coming into it last year. Shaun Murphy is a capable player but certainly not unbeatable and the other seed in the quarter, Ali Carter, has had health problems all season and barely won a match. Stephen Lee has won a tournament and been runner up in another in the last couple of months and I think he can progress to the semi finals from what looks like a weak quarter in terms of standout ability and even more so in depth.

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Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th One more outright for me. Will have a shot in the dark at the highest break. 0.5pts ew J.Jones to make Highest Break 100/1 Skybet (1/4 1-4) This looks a bit big to me. I know this is Jones' first time in the Crucible and he's up against a top player in the Smurf but he showed last month that he's no believer in reputations when he jumped John Higgins out of the PTC finals and that was his first real proper televised match too. He clearly comes into this tournament in good form having beaten Andy Hicks and Ricky Walden in qualifying. He thrashed Walden 10-2 in their match and you don't do that without playing well. Against Andy Hicks he rattled in a 140 break and followed it up with a 134 break so the youngster from Wales can score and if Murphy or anyone else he plays should he beat Murphy, gives him a chance they might regret it. It's a stab in the dark but with heavy scoring recently in the bank at a pretty daft price in a market where you only need one frame to fall into place and you've won I'll pay to see how heavy Jones can score in the tournament.

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Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th First couple of match bets of the tournament. Both in the same match. 4pts D.Gilbert (+3.5 frames) to beat M.Gould 8/11 Bet365 2pts D.Gilbert to beat M.Gould 5/2 Bet365 Dave Gilbert must like his chances with this draw. Granted he hasn't got much experience of the Crucible but Martin Gould has only won one genuine match in a full tournament in 2012 and that was a struggle against Peter Ebdon in the Welsh Open. Confidence isn't usually a problem for Gould but you get the feeling that a lack of wins and pressure on his ranking not being too far away should this go the wrong way could trouble him. Gould isn't one for pulling the reins in a bit. He'll go for his shots regardless of how many wins he has but if he misses Dave Gilbert can take advantage of that. Gilbert made three tons in qualifying so can clearly score and he's got wins over Judd Trump, Ding Junhui and Stephen Lee in PTC matches this year so we know he can play. He is in form having won four matches in the qualifying tournament and is match sharp which is something Gould can't possibly be. If Crucible nerves don't attack Dave Gilbert and he can get in the match in the first four frames then I think he will not only push Gould very close but he could well send him packing early on in the tournament too. Gilbert is just a bit too big at 5/2 and it has hooked me in but my main bet and the confident bet is on him winning at least 7 frames at 8/11.

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Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th Ding Junhui -4.5 frames to beat Day. 11/10 bet365 coral If he brings his A-game game Ding Junhui should blow Day away. Ding has occasionally throws in a couple of lackluster performances but will surely be up for this one. Day was woeful in the Welsh open and seemed incapable of building any kind of break. If Ding gets off to a good start I can see Day's confidence draining and a comfortable win for Ding.

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Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th 1st Quarter winner Maguire 13/5 Coral On paper this looks a straight fight between higgins and Maguire. I personally believe Maguire should be the favourite. He has been in decent form lately getting to the finals of the China and Welsh opens. I'm not convinced by Higgin's form at the moment whereas i feel Maguire has a big performance in him. In their last 2 meetings Maguire beat higgins 5-0 and 6-4 so he certainly knows how to beat Higgins. 13/5 looks tempting to me.

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Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th Bit late to the party, but I'll take a couple of outrights as well. 2pts - N Robertson to win the World Championship @ 9.8 with Betfair With 7 different winners of the 7 main ranking events this season, the World Championship is probably as open as it's ever been, but for me Robertson is the real class act in the field. At his best, I think his all round game is superior to any other player on the tour, and he's a proven winner with 6 ranking titles (including a world title) to his name. Since his success in the Masters in January, his form tailed off a little, but he still managed to be runner up to Stephen Lee in the PTC Grand Final and, after the disappointment of last year's 1st round loss as defending champion, I believe he will be fully focussed on regaining his world crown here. He's in the tougher half of the draw, but with Ronnie or Mark Williams as potential quarter final opponents, I think he has the beating of either of those and if he makes it through to the semis then there's no player I'd rather have my money on to go all the way. 1pt ew (1/2 Odds a place 1-2)- S Maguire to win the World Championship @ 14/1 (15.0) with Coral My feeling is that this year's winner will come from the bottom half of the draw, but that doesn't mean there isn't some decent each way value in the top half. Maguire meets Belgian sensation Luca Brecel first up in a match he really should win quite comfortably and then faces a match up with either Graeme Dott or Joe Perry. You wouldn't want to underestimate either of those, but such is Maguire's form since the turn of the year that it's hard to see him losing out at that stage. With a potential quarter-final against John Higgins, who's having possibly his worst season in a decade, Maguire's route to the semi-final looks as decent as he could possibly hope for in such a tough field. Since winning PTC 12 in January, perennial under-achiever Maguire has played easily his best snooker in 5 years and has 2 ranking finals (the German Masters and China Open) to show for it. Whilst his record at the Crucible isn't the best, I fancy this could be the year where the draw opens up nicely to him and wouldn't be surprised to see him come through the weaker top half to take his place at the final weekend.

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Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th 3pts E/W Ding To win tournament @ 14.5 betfair. Think ding has really come of age now, settled into a new home and is feeling comfortable in the UK. He had a decent run to the semis last year and that experience should give him the confidence he can go two steps further. 4pts Wenbo to beat Higgins @ 4/1 betfred Higgins has had a shocking season by his standards, admitting he has been struggling to motivate himself to practice with young kids and so many tournaments away from home. Wenbo, whilst having an average season, is not a crucible newbie and must take confiendence from an off form Higgins. There's value here, Higgins whilst a class act, does not justify his minuscule odds.

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4pts K.Doherty (+4.5 frames) to beat N.Robertson 10/11 Stan James Doherty comes into this match in decent enough lick having knocked in 3 tons in qualifying against Anthony Hamilton and I think he can win 6 frames against a Robertson who has a reputation for starting events slowly. I don't expect Doherty to win the match but his all round game gives him a good chance of taking at least 6 frames here. Sent from my HTC Desire HD A9191 using PL Forum

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Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th Kev, notice you have alot of posts about sports, may I ask which sport is your strongest, how would you rate them from strongest to weakest? Is there anyway of following your posts without trawling through every post? ty

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Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th Very quixk piost.... S.Maguire v L.Brecel, 2+ match centuries, 4pts @ Evs SportingBet I like this bet. Always look to go overs on Mags in these longer format matches as it's not uncommon for him to knock in back to back tons. He's been in cracking form and is one of those flair players who scores very heavily when his arm is in. However, I don't think he'll get this match all his own way. Teen sensation, Luca Brecel comes here in hot form after a fantastic run in the qualifiers. First he easily disposed McCulloch & Pnches before winning a final frame decider with a ton over Michael Holt and then seeing off Mark King in the final round. We saw 7 tons on Day 1 including a superb maximum on a day where I actually felt we only had a couple of century machines on show so I firmly believe the tables are conducive to big scoring. With a likely 15+ frames in this match, I'm confident we'll see at least 2 centuries.

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Re: World Championship - April 21st - May 7th This afternoon's bets: M.Allen v C.Yupeng, over 17.5 frames, 4pts @ 10/11 BlueSq I'm taking the overs here and looking for a scoreline of 10-8 or 10-9 either way, one I think we'll get. Cao, the debutant, raced into a 3-0 lead and was also 5-2 up before the more experienced Irishman took the last 2 frames of the evening to go in just 5-4 down. I still make Mark Allen the warm favourite to prevail this afternoon but Cao showed yesterday that he ain't going to leave the Crucible without a fight. With Cao 5-4 up, rather than 5-4 down, I think the bookies have priced this up wrong. As I say, I cannot see Cao running away with it and it would take Mark Allen to win the session 6-2 or better for this one to be a loser. If the young lad can share the first 4 frames, I'm confident we'll be collecting and I really think the nerves will only kick in when we get towards the finish line. J.Jones (+4.5 frames) to beat S.Murphy, 4pts @ 10/11 BetVictor I think the Welshman has a real shout in this. We all know about Smurf's credentials and the fact that he normally goes well here at the Crucible, being a former winner himself. However, I've never been convinced by his ability to start a tournament fast; he's generally a player that gets better the more he plays and I think this could see it happen again. Jamie Jones is an up & coming young Welshman who has a real future in the game. I saw him in the Shootout and he looked a confident kid so I'm hoping this Crucible crowd doesn't get to him. Had a couple of cracking wins in qualifying including a 10-2 demolition of recent Top 16 player Ricky Walden, whilst also beating Higgins last month at the PTC finals. Based on that alone, I strongly fancy him to take 6 frames off Murphy here.

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