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Re: April 16 - April 22

Another one for today. May not be finished either ... Fabio Fognini -2 games AH v Robin Haase @ 1.90 with Panbet Feel free to march me down to nearest sanatorium because yes, I'm actually tipping Fabio Fognini. Hear me out though, because I think there's plenty of mileage in the wacky Italian. In fact, I reckon he can win this match against Haase pretty cosily. Fognini's a very talented player. There is no denying that. He's got a fantastic array of shots but mentally, he's daft as a brush, and never does things the easy way. But, against Michael Llodra, there was a bit of a sea change in his game. He played the clutch points well and managed to stay calm against a pretty awkward serve-volley opponent. His straight-sets win was a good one. He missed a large chunk of the season post-Roland Garros through injury, so his drive and desire is higher. He changed his coach in the off-season, bringing in Jose Perlas, who is known as a disciplinarian, someone who could get Fognini mentally in tune with what he needs to do. I liked what I saw in his first match, and also the set he took from Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in Casablanca. Conversely, I didn't like what I saw from Haase yesterday. Juan Monaco had him by the scrotum and would have scooted off with the third set had he not rolled his ankle. Haase was mindless on court. He moves like a truck, plays with little power and consistently chooses the wrong option. He's low on confidence as wins have been at a premium this year. Losing to Lamine Ouahab in Casa says it all really ... Fognini's the sort to niggle away at Haase. He'll get in his mind and draw out the errors. That's my take anyway. I don't often back the Italian, but a -2 game line has appeal, and gets my vote for a missile from Chateau d'Atko. :hope
Haase d. Fognini 6-4 6-4 :( Same old issues for Fognini. Up a break early in each set but was picked on when serving and that was the big issue. Broken when serving a 4-5 each time - maybe those mental demons are still there. Sore one after the joy of Wawrinka, and means it's pretty much a break even day.
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Re: April 16 - April 22 day 3 summary

Gil+4 > Simon @2.13 Pinnacle LOSS Fognini -2.5 > Haase @1.909 Pinnacle LOSS Benneteau to bt Melzer @2.4 Pinnacle WIN
Im pissed of I have run into that Gil - he took an early break to 2-0 lead in the first set, then he won only one game from that point on :wall As to FF match ... I have no clue what was happening there - was FF injured or just plain fixing? +1.30 flat u for the week +6.82 flat u this season
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Re: April 16 - April 22 Uahahah hohoh WTF is going on in that Ferer's match? Is this guy Ferrer last year runner-up or not? Can't believe he will lose 3-6 3-6 with Belluci, LOL. It's the high time to STOP betting in this tournament. edit: it was even worse than that, LOL, 3-6 2-6. I am lucky I was not involved. Now I am almost convinced Haase is going to beat Bellucci in the next round, LOL. Now with today's result (Haase, Bellucci, Gil bagelised in the second set, Berdych leading 5-2 40-0 and serving, yet he had to play tie-break in the first set) I am grabbing my +1.3 flat u and I am definitely saying GOOD BYE to Monte-Carlo. See ya in Fed-Cup matches.

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Re: April 16 - April 22

6/10 Thomaz Bellucci - David Ferrer; Under 19 games @ 1.99 (SBObet) Ferrer is the clear favourite in this match and I give him good chances to cover this line. Ferrer has a good season so far and did not covered this line on clay this year against Almagro and Giraldo but did covered it against 8 other opponents and I think Bellucci will be number 9. Bellucci beat Anderson in the first round 6-4 6-4 but that is not a special win. Anderson absolutely not a clay court player and not a good returner. Ferrer will do him much more damage and Bellucci lost already this season on clay to Del Bonis, Volandri and Granollers, not impressing. At last, Ferrer beat Bellucci twice on clay earlier fairly easy, in 16 and 17 games. What's your opinion about this?
LOL great pick :-D I'm sure that wasn't what you expected but it still went under :-D
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Re: April 16 - April 22

It's interesting how many people cry 'fix' when they lose a bet. It's just sport! Ferrer getting battered by Belucci here. If this unders bet wins with Belucci winning it's an absolute miracle. Come on Belucci!
It will be gravel, dogs winning faster against favs than on grass or other surface. But i say what i see.
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Re: April 16 - April 22

Fognini - Haase Don't know why odds are raising. Haase showing yesterday not a good perfomance and had some luck when Monaco will be retired during the 3rd set. The Dutchmen is not in form and i don't know how he will win today. Saw Fognini playing yesterday. His passing looks very good. It was a very good outcoming after his injury and we know that he loves this surface. As he played as yesterday, he will win this match. 2/10 Fognini tb. Haase @ 1.70 Pinnacle
Ferrer - Bellucci I think this will be the last pick for Monte Carlo today. Had no time enough to think longer about this match and still waiting on raising for the odds. This two players facing eachother 3 times in 2012. Twice times on clay and this twice times Ferrer will be cover this under easy. Ferrer is for my one of the outsiders for this tournament. He playing excellent this year and he loves to play on clay. Showing a good perfomance during the last months and i think he will be dominating the Brazilian here. When we look to Bellucci we are see that he playing well last months but are still not continue enough. He will be won against Anderson in the first match, but Anderson is not a player who loves to play on clay. 3/10 Under 19 games @ 1.85 Pinnacle
Unlucky with the first, enough chances for Fognini and very lucky with the second one.
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Re: April 16 - April 22

LOL what a match (Ferrer - Bellucci). We were lucky with the under. I do believe that Ferrer isn't the type of guy who fixes matches' date=' simply Bellucci played amazing and Ferrer didn't play well.[/quote'] Noone suggested that Ferrer fixed the match. But if strange results start to pile up, whatever is the cause (weather, bad food, etc etc), it is good to get cautious :-)
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Re: April 16 - April 22 Verdasco - Tsonga The local hero Tsonga will be facing here Fernando Verdasco. Tsonga had 2 very good wins against Rufin and Kohlschreiber in straightsets and playing well. He suprise me with his game. Verdasco playing not good, won in 3 sets against Rochus and won in 3 sets against Dodig. But it's not good at all what he will showing. But this bet will be facting on the 2 meetings between both players on hardcourt. Twice it will be a match in 3 sets and Verdasco loves to play on this surface. 1/10 Over 22 games @ 1.86 Pinnacle 3/10 Tsonga ML @ 1.53 Pinnacle Almagro - Wawrinka Almagro the little clay player will be facing here a good Wawrinka. The last one beaten Andujar two day and showing some good perfomance. When i think about Almagro i see a little player who is mentally dramatic. That is the reason why he can lose from every player. Wawrinka is a player who can beaten Almagro here with his game. I think this will be not a easy game, but maybe he will win in 2 very long sets. 1/10 Over 22 games @ 1.81 Pinnacle Djokovic - Dolgopolov Line is to low here. See Dolgopolov playing twice this week against Istomin and Tomic and he playing well. Showing some good perfomance and had to win in 2 sets today against Tomic. But he had one dramatic game. Both players had facing eachother one time at the US Open last year and Djokovic had not a easy match there. When we see that Dolgopolov is growing up till a better player last year, we would like this low line. 2/10 Over 18.5 games @ 2.03 Pinnacle Tipsarevic - Simon Biggest play of the day, i think you must play this pick fast but the odds are dropping fast. Simon showing a great perfomance here in Monte Carlo, but he had stay here after the Davis Cup meeting against USA. Had 2 good victories, the last today against Gil. But Gil was not totally fit, but Simon playing well. Tipsarevic will be a little bit overrated here. He is a good top 10 player, but he is not a player who likes clay at most. He had three meetings against Simon on hardcourt and all meetings he lost. But in every meeting their will be a tiebreak. 2/10 Over 21.5 games @ 1.83 Pinnacle 3/10 Simon ML @ 1.79 Pinnacle

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Re: April 16 - April 22 Going to back Nishikori with the +3.5 against Berdych tonight. Nishikori has had the wood over Berdych in the past, winning the past two meetings. Both have a similar record on clay in relation to how many games they have played. Although I think Berdych will win this match, Nishikori can cover this line.

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Re: April 16 - April 22

Going to back Nishikori with the +3.5 against Berdych tonight. Nishikori has had the wood over Berdych in the past' date=' winning the past two meetings. Both have a similar record on clay in relation to how many games they have played. Although I think Berdych will win this match, Nishikori can cover this line.[/quote'] Totally agree with this bet Also Im going for Tsonga and Tipsarevic today!
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Re: April 16 - April 22 Going back to a points system today, although it's really just one big bet and a few smaller ones :lol Jo-Wilfried Tsonga -3 games AH v Fernando Verdasco @ 1.97 with allyoubet 7pts Happy to side with Tsonga here. Blew away Kohlschreiber and has been practising and playing at the MCCC for three weeks because of Davis Cup. Verdasco for me is nothing more than a mid-30s player these days - too erratic off the serve and his forehand's not what it was. Tsonga beat him pretty easily at the US Open last year and a three-game line seems on the skinny side to me. Kei Nishikori +3.5 games v Tomas Berdych @ 1.84 with Panbet 3pts H2H speaks volumes here. 2-0 for Nishikori and he's a player on the up. Berdych was involved in an odd match yesterday. 5-1 up on Cilic in the first set and then ended up in a breaker! Good clay player but wonder if he's a little rusty. Might come through this but Nishikori is competitive at the moment and ought to be on the premises at least. Over 22 games AH between Janko Tipsarevic and Gilles Simon @ 1.85 with Panbet 3pts Simon leads the H2H 3-0 but every single match has gone over 22 games. These two play close matches and I can envisage another one here. Simon found his mojo yesterday against Gil and comes into this match with a bit more confidence, while Tipsarevic has been in fine form for the past year and gave Montanes a bit of a shooing yesterday. Two good baseliners up against each other and I feel it has the right ingredients for overs. :hope

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Re: April 16 - April 22 Funny match this Berdych-Nishi. I am involved in LIVE for fun and have placed a small bet on Nishi, but that a spank I did not expect. After first four games: Nihi leads 4-0, points won: Nishi 16, Berdy 3. Unbelievable. Berdy is ripe for retiring.

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Re: April 16 - April 22

Sarasota challenger Russell (vs Ramirez Hidalgo) @ 1.6 (local) Should be too much by now for Ruben, two weeks with 2 finals in a row and a lot of matches with 3 sets, also in qualifying entry list this weekend for Barcelona. Doubt he will put much effort in this, also faster green clay ain't a surface he prefers. Mike made some decent results last year on green clay, should take advantage here.
6-4 6-3
I'm also on him today against Querry. Sam on clay (even green) shouldn't have a big advantage on his serve, and Baker looked great so far. Shame injuries ruined Brian's carrer. Baker @4.1 (local) Baker +4.5 @1.9 (local)
3-6 6-1 3-6 Broke Sam in first game in third set and then fell apart. Shame, but a nice week for Brian.
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Re: April 16 - April 22 Challenger Sarasota Russell vs Kuznetsov Russell 2:0 @ 1.8 (local) Russell leads h2h 8:0, losing only one set in process, won 2 times on clay, both green. Kuznetsov never excelled on clay, don't expect him to show here much. He beat Delic in first round, who is like a cow on ice playing clay. Russell has a nice momentum from Houston, these tournaments also count for American WC for French Open, so motivation is there. Challenger Rome Huta Galung - Krajinovic Krajinovic @ 2.05 (local) Filip finally back after injuries, great talent, demolished Mannarino 6:0 6:1 in first round, should be capable of pushing things far here. Only concern remains his fitness level, but so far everything looked decent.

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Re: April 16 - April 22

Going to back Nishikori with the +3.5 against Berdych tonight. Nishikori has had the wood over Berdych in the past' date=' winning the past two meetings. Both have a similar record on clay in relation to how many games they have played. Although I think Berdych will win this match, Nishikori can cover this line.[/quote'] :ok
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Re: April 16 - April 22 Stanislas Wawrinka to beat Nicolas Almagro @ 13/8 BET 365 Strength (6/10) Feel this is a good time to fade Almagro. Right at the start of the clay season, after a fairly gruelling start to the year (due to his good form) and with the David Cup thrown in for good measure. He might just have a mental let down today and save himself for Rome, Madrid etc in the lead up to the French, and against someone with the quality of Wawrinka (albeit going thorugh a career malaise) that could prove costly. Wawrinka leads the head to head so he should feel pretty confident, and should also be feeling physically fresh after doing not doing a pile in Miami or Indian Wells.

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Re: April 16 - April 22 Djokovic - Dolgopolov Will be added here some extra units on the over. Djokovic had leaving this morning crying the court, when he was hearing that his grandfather will be died. Djokovic will be play today, but i know that his head not is empty. 2/10 Over 18.5 games @ 1.86 Bet365

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Re: April 16 - April 22 One more bet for today ... acting on events. Novak Djokovic -6 games AH v Alexander Dolgopolov @ 2.16 with Panbet 3pts I disagree with above comments on this match. As upset and emotional as Djokovic might be, I reckon he's going to come out here and destroy Dolgo for his grandfather. Apparently his grandfather instilled a lot of the fight and dedication in him and I fully expect him to win this match and the tournament for the man he loved so dearly. It'll be an eerie atmosphere too and despite having played well this week, I'm not sure how Alex will handle it. :hope

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