April 16 - April 22

[ImLovinIt]

Re: April 16 - April 22 Tomic to beat Dolgopolov the disgraceful, unrespectful to the game benchod sala @ 12/5 with Panbet This is another ridiculous price, the bookies are offering tomic at 12/5 to beat Dolgopolov the most erratic player on tour?! Dolgo lost to a player very similar in the way they/he wins matches, in Cipolla! Consistency, getting the ball, slicing and dicing, frustrating the oppostion and yes making them go for too much in the end. Well, Dolgo really needs to helping hand in making errors, the guy is so spontaneous with his errors, you don't know where they come from. Okay, Tomic won his first match on clay yesterday? So what? Does it matter? Are you really that fussed? This should 60/40 in Dolgo's favour and the bookmakers have it down as 80/20 ... what a flipping insult they are paying here to Tomic. I am certainly willing to run the risk of Tomic losing in a tight 3 set match. 6/10 in the confidence stakes.

[slider24]

Re: April 16 - April 22 Brian Baker is to 2/1 to beat Ryan Sweeting at Saraosota. Could be worth a go. Baker has serious talent.

[slider24]

Re: April 16 - April 22 I'mLovinit -Re: Tomic - Dolgopolov. That's a good point. Dolgopolov just had no answer to Cipollo's 'junk', and struggled to generate his own power. You would say Tomic is a classier version of Cipolla as well. Might follow on that one, at least on the handicap.

[Alovenac]

Re: April 16 - April 22 Two picks for tomorrow. Will be still waiting on more odds at some matches, but i will making a better selection after two bad days. Tomic - Dolgopolov Had both players saw playing in the first match at Monte Carlo. Dolgopolov playing very well and showing good perfomance. He was dominating Chela the whole match and i think he will continue this form. Tomic won his second match on clay in 3 years. But it was not a good Tomic who i saw. Istomin was very poor during the match a making a lot of faults. 3/10 Dolgopolov -3.5 games @ 1.72 Pinnacle Gil - Simon Very high staking here on the ML odd. Gil winning today against Youzhny, but the last one was very very poor. Simon make a good perfomance in his first match last sunday and he was playing here also 2 weeks ago for the Davis Cup. Don't see a lot of other picks on this match and will be see a lot of value here. Odd must be max around 1.20. 7/10 Simon ML @ 1.33 Pinnacle

[Alovenac]

Re: April 16 - April 22

Looks like you might be ok! Alovec hasnt had the best of tips so far that iv seen! However Im sure they will improve!

Very unlucky this week, make not so good selection i think and leans will be won.

[ImLovinIt]

Re: April 16 - April 22 Exactly slider. I don't understand, is no one fancying Benne vs Melzer?

[slider24]

Re: April 16 - April 22

Brian Baker is to 2/1 to beat Ryan Sweeting at Saraosota. Could be worth a go. Baker has serious talent.

Yet another player I back retires. Unbelievable. Won the first set 6-1, 2-0 up in the second. I can guarantee you there was f-all wrong with Sweeting, just couldn't face the spanking. This is after Capdeville retired on Sunday 5-2 down in the last after I backed Veic. Seriously annoying. On Melzer - Benny, the only thing that makes me wary is Melzer's good run in Monte Carlo last year. Aside from that it all points to Benny, he obviously likes the match-up, leading 4-2.

[BobNL]

Re: April 16 - April 22 6/10 Thomaz Bellucci - David Ferrer; Under 19 games @ 1.99 (SBObet) Ferrer is the clear favourite in this match and I give him good chances to cover this line. Ferrer has a good season so far and did not covered this line on clay this year against Almagro and Giraldo but did covered it against 8 other opponents and I think Bellucci will be number 9. Bellucci beat Anderson in the first round 6-4 6-4 but that is not a special win. Anderson absolutely not a clay court player and not a good returner. Ferrer will do him much more damage and Bellucci lost already this season on clay to Del Bonis, Volandri and Granollers, not impressing. At last, Ferrer beat Bellucci twice on clay earlier fairly easy, in 16 and 17 games. What's your opinion about this?

[Atko]

Decent day today. Many bets but profit to show. Will be more selective - one bet so far ... Stanislas Wawrinka -3 games AH v Pablo Andujar @ 1.84 This is a bet that leapt of the page when I saw it. Wawrinka was very impressive today against Feliciano Lopez. He wasn't broken and played a solid match against a dangerous player. He appears to have shaken off his knee injury and I wonder if we'll see a good clay swing from him. Certainly, it's his best surface. The kick off the court allows him time to line up his groundies. Many people talk about his backhand and while it is a lovely shot, he's also got a fine forehand, and can play with slice and pace. He also moves well on clay and feels at home on it. Andujar is in decent form, having won Casa, but he was very erratic today against Federico Delbonis. Too many breaks of serve for my liking, and that suggests to me that fatigue is creeping in. He's played a lot of matches recently and has had the emotional high of winning an event. I do fear he may crash a bit, especially as he wasn't off court until 7pm local time tonight. Wawrinka is the better player for me and could easily see out this match. A -3 Asian line feels too generous. He covered that last year against Andujar in Mexico on clay despite dropping a set in their only encounter. I'm expecting a good showing from the Swiss again. I'd have no qualms about -3.5 either, but my recommended line is readily available at odds of more than 1.80. A nice offer, I feel :hope

[Atko]

6/10 Thomaz Bellucci - David Ferrer; Under 19 games @ 1.99 (SBObet) Ferrer is the clear favourite in this match and I give him good chances to cover this line. Ferrer has a good season so far and did not covered this line on clay this year against Almagro and Giraldo but did covered it against 8 other opponents and I think Bellucci will be number 9. Bellucci beat Anderson in the first round 6-4 6-4 but that is not a special win. Anderson absolutely not a clay court player and not a good returner. Ferrer will do him much more damage and Bellucci lost already this season on clay to Del Bonis, Volandri and Granollers, not impressing. At last, Ferrer beat Bellucci twice on clay earlier fairly easy, in 16 and 17 games. What's your opinion about this?

I'd expect Ferrer to win fairly comfortably too. He's too solid for Bellucci and will draw errors. He's played the Brazilian enough times to know he's dangerous. I wouldn't put you off ...

[BobNL]

Re: April 16 - April 22

I'd expect Ferrer to win fairly comfortably too. He's too solid for Bellucci and will draw errors. He's played the Brazilian enough times to know he's dangerous. I wouldn't put you off ...

Thanks Atko. I agree with you about Wawrinka, good win today. I was only wondering where you found the -3 Asian line, I could only find -3.5? Do you also have some thoughts about the Dolgopolov match? I was thinking of Dolgo -3.5 as I do not rate Tomic highly as a clay court player.

[ImLovinIt]

Re: April 16 - April 22 I think you would be barking mad to back Dolgopolov against a player that gets the ball back time after time after time. Dolgopolov is a player that is prone to errors, surely it would be illogical to take him on a handicap against a player that will make him play that extra shot? The value is all with Tomic here. Whether its clay or not, Tomic can play on grass and I have sort of seen him slide on grass at Wimbledon.

[Atko]

Re: April 16 - April 22

Thanks Atko. I agree with you about Wawrinka, good win today. I was only wondering where you found the -3 Asian line, I could only find -3.5? Do you also have some thoughts about the Dolgopolov match? I was thinking of Dolgo -3.5 as I do not rate Tomic highly as a clay court player.

I got the -3 games AH with Panbet. They're now at -3.5 in the low 1.80s, which is still a fair bet in my eyes. I think the Dolgopolov match is best left alone. I saw bits and pieces of Tomic's match with Denis Istomin and he was solid but didn't have to do much. Istomin's not a particularly adept clay courter and looks a bit heavy. This will be a much sterner test for the young Aussie. Before this year's Open in Melbourne, Dolgopolov had a good record against him. I'm not sure I'd want to back Tomic on clay (he has a dire record across all levels on the red brick) against someone like Dolgopolov, who is at his best on clay. You never really know these days what you'll get with the Ukrainian but he was convincing against Juan Ignacio Chela - looked focused, served well and took all his chances. I have Dolgopolov down to win on my draw but such are the vagaries of his mental state, I wouldn't get involved. Put it this way, if Tomic won, I wouldn't be shocked. One thing to remember though, if you've got a good gut feeling for a bet and your analysis points you in that direct, don't be afraid to fire on it. Just make sure you've got all angles covered.

[homunculus]

Re: April 16 - April 22 day 2 summary

R.Haase +4 > Monaco @2.120 Pinnacle VOID po-TEE-tow stah-RAH-che to bt Berlocq @2.190 Pinnacle VOID Kukushkin to bt Flo Mayer @2.4 Pinnacle WIN Andujar-3 to bt Delbonis @1.926 Pinnacle PUSH

never got that huge load of voided bets in one day... +1.9 flat u for the week +7.42 flat u this season edit: couple of selections for me today Gil+4 > Simon @2.13 Pinnacle Simon is in much worse shape now than he was in the 1st half of 2011. And clay is not his favourite surface. Gil was impressive against Youzhnyi. Fognini -2.5 > Haase @1.909 Pinnacle Haase was pure disgrace yesterday, getting bagelised against tired Monaco. Was awful last week in Casa, and keeps his miserable shape this week as well. Foggy was quite fine against Llodra, and is a natural claycourter. and following ImLovinit with Benneteau to bt Melzer @2.4 Pinnacle

[Atko]

Re: April 16 - April 22 Another one for today. May not be finished either ... Fabio Fognini -2 games AH v Robin Haase @ 1.90 with Panbet Feel free to march me down to nearest sanatorium because yes, I'm actually tipping Fabio Fognini. Hear me out though, because I think there's plenty of mileage in the wacky Italian. In fact, I reckon he can win this match against Haase pretty cosily. Fognini's a very talented player. There is no denying that. He's got a fantastic array of shots but mentally, he's daft as a brush, and never does things the easy way. But, against Michael Llodra, there was a bit of a sea change in his game. He played the clutch points well and managed to stay calm against a pretty awkward serve-volley opponent. His straight-sets win was a good one. He missed a large chunk of the season post-Roland Garros through injury, so his drive and desire is higher. He changed his coach in the off-season, bringing in Jose Perlas, who is known as a disciplinarian, someone who could get Fognini mentally in tune with what he needs to do. I liked what I saw in his first match, and also the set he took from Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in Casablanca. Conversely, I didn't like what I saw from Haase yesterday. Juan Monaco had him by the scrotum and would have scooted off with the third set had he not rolled his ankle. Haase was mindless on court. He moves like a truck, plays with little power and consistently chooses the wrong option. He's low on confidence as wins have been at a premium this year. Losing to Lamine Ouahab in Casa says it all really ... Fognini's the sort to niggle away at Haase. He'll get in his mind and draw out the errors. That's my take anyway. I don't often back the Italian, but a -2 game line has appeal, and gets my vote for a missile from Chateau d'Atko. :hope

[Alovenac]

Re: April 16 - April 22 Fognini - Haase Don't know why odds are raising. Haase showing yesterday not a good perfomance and had some luck when Monaco will be retired during the 3rd set. The Dutchmen is not in form and i don't know how he will win today. Saw Fognini playing yesterday. His passing looks very good. It was a very good outcoming after his injury and we know that he loves this surface. As he played as yesterday, he will win this match. 2/10 Fognini tb. Haase @ 1.70 Pinnacle

[Darek]

Re: April 16 - April 22 Since very first touch with betting on tennis I was looking for occasions to play against Volandri. Pipo is in my opinion not trustable player at all. He plays today vs. Kukushkin who beat some big names this season, also here in qualies (Dmitrov, Clement and in 1st Mayer). Just can't miss Kukushkin @2.12 Betfair

[Alovenac]

Re: April 16 - April 22 Ferrer - Bellucci I think this will be the last pick for Monte Carlo today. Had no time enough to think longer about this match and still waiting on raising for the odds. This two players facing eachother 3 times in 2012. Twice times on clay and this twice times Ferrer will be cover this under easy. Ferrer is for my one of the outsiders for this tournament. He playing excellent this year and he loves to play on clay. Showing a good perfomance during the last months and i think he will be dominating the Brazilian here. When we look to Bellucci we are see that he playing well last months but are still not continue enough. He will be won against Anderson in the first match, but Anderson is not a player who loves to play on clay. 3/10 Under 19 games @ 1.85 Pinnacle

[homunculus]

Re: April 16 - April 22 OMG, that Gil was disaster... Apparently injured arm, but was much too sport to retire ...

[valve]

Re: April 16 - April 22

Brian Baker is to 2/1 to beat Ryan Sweeting at Saraosota. Could be worth a go. Baker has serious talent.

I'm also on him today against Querry. Sam on clay (even green) shouldn't have a big advantage on his serve, and Baker looked great so far. Shame injuries ruined Brian's carrer. Baker @4.1 (local) Baker +4.5 @1.9 (local)

[IAmGooner]

Re: April 16 - April 22 Dolgopolov schooled Tomic there, should have got it done in two but for one lapse in the second. Deserved win anyway.

[Alovenac]

Re: April 16 - April 22

Two picks for tomorrow. Will be still waiting on more odds at some matches, but i will making a better selection after two bad days. Tomic - Dolgopolov Had both players saw playing in the first match at Monte Carlo. Dolgopolov playing very well and showing good perfomance. He was dominating Chela the whole match and i think he will continue this form. Tomic won his second match on clay in 3 years. But it was not a good Tomic who i saw. Istomin was very poor during the match a making a lot of faults. 3/10 Dolgopolov -3.5 games @ 1.72 Pinnacle Gil - Simon Very high staking here on the ML odd. Gil winning today against Youzhny, but the last one was very very poor. Simon make a good perfomance in his first match last sunday and he was playing here also 2 weeks ago for the Davis Cup. Don't see a lot of other picks on this match and will be see a lot of value here. Odd must be max around 1.20. 7/10 Simon ML @ 1.33 Pinnacle

Two good. Good start today, happy with it!

[Atko]

Re: April 16 - April 22

Two good. Good start today' date=' happy with it![/quote'] Nice work after a difficult day yesterday. Pleased for you :ok

[slider24]

Re: April 16 - April 22

I'm also on him today against Querry. Sam on clay (even green) shouldn't have a big advantage on his serve, and Baker looked great so far. Shame injuries ruined Brian's carrer. Baker @4.1 (local) Baker +4.5 @1.9 (local)

I'm on him today as well. Sweeting bottled out of it, and even in the qualies his dismissal of the Hungarian 6-1 6-0 was impressive when you think he took Russell to two pretty close sets last week in Houston. Baker beat Tsonga in the French Open Juniors back in 03 so he likes the surface. Probably his favourite one. Always willing to go against a clown like Querrey.

[valve]

Re: April 16 - April 22 Sarasota challenger Russell (vs Ramirez Hidalgo) @ 1.6 (local) Should be too much by now for Ruben, two weeks with 2 finals in a row and a lot of matches with 3 sets, also in qualifying entry list this weekend for Barcelona. Doubt he will put much effort in this, also faster green clay ain't a surface he prefers. Mike made some decent results last year on green clay, should take advantage here.

[Fizruhas]

Re: April 16 - April 22 great call guys on Benneteau , had him with 2.5 livebet!

[chris666]

Re: April 16 - April 22 Another great call re Benneteau, wasn't too sure re tomic match so went for him to nick a set. Nice double up. Thanks for info.

[ImLovinIt]

Re: April 16 - April 22 No worries Frizru and Chris ;)

[Darek]

Re: April 16 - April 22 Odds went up on FF 1.7 to 2.0 now... any reason?

[Atko]

Re: April 16 - April 22

Decent day today. Many bets but profit to show. Will be more selective - one bet so far ... Stanislas Wawrinka -3 games AH v Pablo Andujar @ 1.84 This is a bet that leapt of the page when I saw it. Wawrinka was very impressive today against Feliciano Lopez. He wasn't broken and played a solid match against a dangerous player. He appears to have shaken off his knee injury and I wonder if we'll see a good clay swing from him. Certainly, it's his best surface. The kick off the court allows him time to line up his groundies. Many people talk about his backhand and while it is a lovely shot, he's also got a fine forehand, and can play with slice and pace. He also moves well on clay and feels at home on it. Andujar is in decent form, having won Casa, but he was very erratic today against Federico Delbonis. Too many breaks of serve for my liking, and that suggests to me that fatigue is creeping in. He's played a lot of matches recently and has had the emotional high of winning an event. I do fear he may crash a bit, especially as he wasn't off court until 7pm local time tonight. Wawrinka is the better player for me and could easily see out this match. A -3 Asian line feels too generous. He covered that last year against Andujar in Mexico on clay despite dropping a set in their only encounter. I'm expecting a good showing from the Swiss again. I'd have no qualms about -3.5 either, but my recommended line is readily available at odds of more than 1.80. A nice offer, I feel :hope

Wawrinka d. Andujar 7-5 6-3 :ok A nice win here although the scoreline is misleading. Andujar served for the set at 5-4 and was at 30-30 but was broken and folded like a cheap garden table thereafter. Wawrinka wasn't great on serve but did the job and that's what matters. Think the Spaniard was (a) fatigued and (b) needs to work on his serve. Against good players, it gets punished.