Chinese Grand Prix

[Ben H]

Sunday 15th April, Shanghai, 08:00 BST.

[Ben H]

Re: Chinese Grand Prix Should be an interesting qualifying session coming up in a few hours! Here are a few of my thoughts and bets.... 1pt S.Vettel to take Pole Position, 10, Sporting Bet 1pt, M.Webber to take Pole Position, 21, Bet 365. Now in all honesty the Red Bull drivers will have a tough time taking pole, with the Mercedes likely to be a contender due to its 'Super DRS', and Mclaren up right at the sharp end with their strong car. But I just think Red Bull's lacklustre performance in the first two races have maybe pushed the odds for pole to a temptingly high level. From what I can make out and read today the Red Bull and Mclaren paced very simliar when on light fuel runs today. The Mercedes could do them all in, yes, but I've been reading some comments from Ross Brawn this week that they are worried about their lack of race pace and might have to sacfice one lap pace for better long run standards (set up can't be changed between qualfying and race remember). So I think Red Bull could be serious contenders for the pole and with two drivers who know how to string the pole lap together under pressure think 10 and 21 is a bit too high. 1pt Liablity Lay J.Button to qualify in top 3, 1.9 Betfair Been reading Jenson was struggling with understeer when he went for a qualfying run today, and as it is cold in China remember his struggles qualfying in colder conditions in the past, most memorably in the Brawn in 2009. Given the prescence of viable contenders for the top 3 happy taking this on. Also mentioning the cold conditions I heard on Raikonnen's team radio that the Lotus was struggling in the cold and, it was a matter of waiting for hotter conditions to return on Sunday. And Kimi had some DRS malfunctioning which cost him just a little track time. Therefore trying to get a lay of Kimi to qualify in the top 10 to be matched on Betfair somewhere below 1.3. The Lotus has been doing very well in qualifying this year, but if they are not on their game this weekend it dosen't seem to take much this year to fall into the midfield. Head to Head Bets: 1pt, M.Webber to beat S.Vettel, 2.62, Bet 365, Expect a close one. Mark has actually beaten Vettel in both qualfying sessions this year and seems much happier with the Pirelli tyres this year. Despite running different bodywork configurations on Friday, not one paticularly stood out on their short runs, so happy to go with Mark.

[Ben H]

Okay got the Red Bull pole bets WAY off beam! Vettel not even making q3! Webber and Jenson bets came through tho to balance those out and luckily never got on Kimi! Should be an absolutely brilliant race tomorrow with the grid the way it is, and a lot of possibilities to consider. One immediate thought for tomorrow.... 2pts lay N.Rosberg to win, 4.4 Betfair. As I mentioned above the Mercedes has had obvious problems with tyre degradation in the races and looking at the Friday long runs it dosen't appear they've resolved it, even though they blitzed everyone today. With there being a huge amount of passing at this track last year, and that big DRS zone down that ridiculously long straight, would not be confident Rosberg can hold on tomorrow despite being on pole by half a second.

[Ben H]

Certainly an interesting grid for tomorrow, and incredibly for a dry race there must be 8/9 people you could make a case for winning the race, without being laughed out of town anyway! Shows how competitive F12012 is turning out to be! And with two of them in mind...... 1pt S.Perez to win the race, 34, Bet365 1pt K.Kobayahi to win the race, 15, Ladbrokes Something struck me in Malaysia,and it wasn't Perezs amazing speed on inters in damp conditions(the wet is a great equaliser) but the fact he kept. cranking out fastest laps when the field switched to dry tyres (and he was on the harder compound unlike most others!). This baffled me at the time, the sheer extent of his dry weather pace, and I haven't heard anybody confirm why this was. But I do know members of the teams have been saying the Purelli tyres this year are sensitive to temperature and car in getting them to the correct operating window. Now looking at the forecast for the circuit, it appears there will be rain overnight, but dry tomorrow,with the temperature cooling during the race.So we could have the track conditions of Sepang replicated where the track is green,and temps dropping during the race.Allied to the Saubers good ability to care for its tyres, opening up the possiblity pf a two stop, and their good starting positions, I'm good with taking these odds.

[Ben H]

Race Match Bet, J.E.Vergene to beat D.Riccardo, 2.25,Bet 365 Been following the battle between the Toro Rosso young guns closely, rate both highly,Vergene especially been touted as the 'one to watch' since he steamrollered British F3. It's one all in their intra team battle at the mo, with Riccardo sneaking it on the last lap in Austrlia, but Vergene getting the glory with a superb drive to points on Malaysia. They are only one place apart on the grid 17th and 18th and Vergene should have an extra set of new tyres has well due to not making q3. With the evenness of the battle so far happy to have Vergene at odds against.

[Ben H]

1pt M.Webber to finish on podium, 5, Betfair 1pt M.Webber to win the race, 19.5,Betfair 1pt,S.Vettel to finish on the podium, 6.6,Betfair 0.5pt, S.Vettel to win the race, 28, Betfair Well my tips of them for pole were way off target, but still,having a look at Fridays action again their long run pace seemed to be right up with the Mclarens which seem to be favourites for the race. considering Webber is actually between them on sixth, the Mercedes could fall back, and DRS on the long straight should make passing easier here (nearly 100 passes last year!) then I don't think Webber should have the premium in odds he has over Jenson and Lewis.And as for Vettel, he has freedom over what tyres he starts on as well,even If it is only 11th....he could opt to start on hards, and I'd the Mercs seriously held the field up at some point during the first stint then that could work out really nicely.

[Ben H]

1pt, P.Maldonado to finish in points, 3 William Hill. 1pt, B.Senna to finish in points, 3.5, Bet365 Both Williams 3 tenths off q3 today, start 13th and 14th. However the word was at the start of the year the Williams was better in race trim, which it has shown flashes of in the two races so far. Senna has reiterated the point this week saying the car is strong under brakes and at being kind to its tyres, both crucial in a race. Given that I can see passing being pretty free and easy this race see no reason why the pair can't nab these 3/4 places if they hook into better race pace than guys who weren't light years away from them in qualie. stating the car is

[Ben H]

And one more..... 1pt, Lay N.Rosberg to lead first lap, 1.68, Betfair Really more for the man beside him on the front row- Schumacher had one of the best records of making up places on lap one last year, and I can remember he isn't afraid to race wheel to wheel with his teammate, in situations like in Spa 2010. And Kobayshi in 3rd isn't afraid to pull shock manoeuvres either and he does it very well, and could do if he got to second. Against a driver who has on occasion left the door open wider then it needs to be - see China last year - then will oppose him to appear first! hit to second

[Berlington Bertie]

One for me. 2pts K Raikkonen to win the race 10/1 betfred Kimi has looked as good as ever since making his return to the sport and from 4th on the grid I feel he might take the win tomorrow.There's no doubt the Mercedes look good in qualifying but the advantage they have with their clever interpretation of the drs will not be so much of a factor in the race, they do also have tyre issues more so than any other of the teams.The Lotus and Kimi are generally reliable so from fourth on the grid I will take the Finn to take the honours in China. Sent from my HTC Desire using PL Forum

[lato89]

Re: Chinese Grand Prix

One for me. 2pts K Raikkonen to win the race 10/1 betfred Kimi has looked as good as ever since making his return to the sport and from 4th on the grid I feel he might take the win tomorrow.There's no doubt the Mercedes look good in qualifying but the advantage they have with their clever interpretation of the drs will not be so much of a factor in the race, they do also have tyre issues more so than any other of the teams.The Lotus and Kimi are generally reliable so from fourth on the grid I will take the Finn to take the honours in China. Sent from my HTC Desire using PL Forum

Raikkonen SUCKS!

[Ben H]

Ha just rewatched this race and it was so frenetic! It was all over the place with the bets as well....the Saubers didn't show their phantom cold weather pace, Rosberg blew into the weeds my assumptions about his tyre drop off and first lap chances, Vettel and Webber on different strategies came close to the podium at least, but no cigar....on the other hand, the Williams boys brought home the bacon with a very strong race, and JEV beat Riccardo from last! Eventful, and F1 2012 is proving fascinating if difficult to call!